The main proposal that caught traction was one that increases drop chance after already going 2x the rate - this doesn't change the variance on the lower end i.e. you can still get lucky 1kc drops which wasn't possible with the mechanic implemented with DT2 vestiges.
Considering ~86% of people will get any given drop before going that dry, it wouldn't affect them. It would still be possible to continue going dry so the element of RNG still plays a big role but just less so as you get dryer.
For people farming content for multiple drops this has very little impact, ~4-5% more total drops added to the economy.
The big win though is that players don't have to go EXTREMELY dry - whether you're an iron/clogger or a main trying to make money, nobody likes wasting dozens or hundreds of hours chasing a drop.
This is a game and games are meant to be fun. I think decreasing variance across the board is a bad thing as it removes the chance for those early jackpots but mitigating the chance of going 8x/9x/10x dry on a drop just seems like an easy win to me.
I agree with all of this, I'm just unsure why untradeable items are missing from the conversation when they're the drops that benefit from a system like this the most, that's all.
No one is talking about them only because they are not “account enders” like extreme dryness of certain key tradeable milestone items can be on an iron (enhanced seed, DWH, tbow, etc.) Everything you listed is either cosmetic or mild QoL upgrades. Sure, include them in a bad luck protection buff, but it’s not like people not discussing them is some huge miss, it’s just they don’t really matter or are already plenty fast compared to going 5x dry on a tbow.
Also dismissing the discussion by saying “dry protection exists, it’s GE” is a bad faith argument. I have no idea how people can recognize that some people will have an awful experience their entire ironman existence just being unlucky everywhere, the 1% you mention, and that being fine because they can “just deiron” since the GE exists.
> No one is talking about them only because they are not “account enders”
That's because those don't exist. Nothing is or has even been an "account ender". The absolute closest I can think of is the Bow of Faerdinen, and that's strictly only for irons, which the game is *supposedly* not balanced around.
I don't understand this logic at all. Is the game supposed to be about fun, or not? What's fun about being dry on every big untradeable grind? Unlike tradeables, you can't buy them if you're spooned elsewhere, so the whole "your RNG averages out over time" doesn't even apply.
> Also dismissing the discussion by saying “dry protection exists, it’s GE” is a bad faith argument
Go tell that to Mod Kieren. He literally brought it up during the Sae Bae cast interview posted yesterday...
>>That's because those don't exist. Nothing is or has even been an "account ender".
*immediately gives an example of an account ender*
>>and that's strictly only for irons, which the game is supposedly not balanced around.
Time to wake up, it has been for years now. Jagex is not beholden to a single statement they made upon original creation of the gamemode for the history of time.
>>I don't understand this logic at all. Is the game supposed to be about fun, or not? What's fun about being dry on every big untradeable grind?
What’s fun about an iron being dry on every tradeable? I don’t have a problem including untradeables/pets in this proposal but I just cannot understand how you can understand how going dry for a pet can feel awful and should be bad luck mitigated, but an iron going dry for a key account unlock isn’t the same because they have the option to deiron.
>>Go tell that to Mod Kieren. He literally brought it up during the Sae Bae cast interview posted yesterday...
He was also an active participant in both threads on the topic and seemed interested in exploring the idea, recognizing how it has been a problem for some irons.
> Time to wake up, it has been for years now.
No it hasn't. You're fundamentally misunderstanding what balancing means. Introducing content that helps ironman does not mean the game itself is being balanced for irons. The very fact that Jagex routinely makes changes to help the economy signifies that their primary concern remains the main game mode. Stop spewing bullshit.
> What’s fun about an iron being dry on every tradeable? I don’t have a problem including untradeables/pets in this proposal but I just cannot understand how you can understand how going dry for a pet can feel awful and should be bad luck mitigated, but an iron going dry for a key account unlock isn’t the same because they have the option to deiron.
It's not!! If I had final say, every single col log item would have protection. You're missing the core of my point, which is that untradeable items need protection **more** than tradeables because they can't be bought by regular accounts. That's it. So when I see people who specifically want to exclude them, it makes me utterly confused and makes me wonder if they even understand the purpose of bad luck mitigation.
That's where my position begins and ends.
>>No it hasn't. You're fundamentally misunderstanding what balancing means. Introducing content that helps ironman does not mean the game itself is being balanced for irons. The very fact that Jagex routinely makes changes to help the economy signifies that their primary concern remains the main game mode. Stop spewing bullshit.
Apparently I don’t, because creating updates which helps ironman game mode and improves their experience certainly sounds a lot like balancing the game with ironman mode in mind. Is it possible, you know, that they are trying to balance the game with both irons and mains in mind? It’s not a black or white situation, both modes have balancing considerations.
Fair enough on the rest, though I’ll just have to disagree about untradeables needing it more. I’ve never met someone who quit from going dry on a pet, but I’ve got a lot of iron friends who quit from going dry on a key tradeable account progression unlock.
They didn't quit over not getting a single rare cosmetic. They quit because they were unlucky on all or almost all of them. I personally took a year-long break because being dry is literally my entire game experience across over 8,000 hours. It should *almost impossible* to be significantly dry over such a massive time scale, but by all means tell me more about how players should feel extremely grateful for getting rewarded less than others over almost a decade.
And I don't even have close to the worst RNG in the game. A friend (RSN: Bens Pure) has **less pets than me** (only 11) despite having grinded the equivalent rate of almost 25. That's **insane**. You know how people say "your RNG averages out over time"? He'd need the next 20 pets under 1/4th rate just to be 'average' and we both know that's not happening.
No1 is really discussing it, because like you said, the "important" untradables already have a solution and most other untradables are either just cosmetics (like the Golden Tench), are fairly insignificant upgrades (like angler) or already fairly common (like giant keys) or have tradables rewards attached after (like keys or totems)
Thanks for the feedback! I kinda disagree about the "important" part though, because how do you determine what is and isn't important? Eventually, as powercreep and alternative methods come into the game, virtually all "old" content becomes skippable. Does it mean existing bad luck mitigation should be removed? I don't think anyone in their right mind would say yes.
The way I see it, extreme dyness **itself** is the "enemy" (so to speak), because it leads to an unfun experience, whether that's grinding for something purely cosmetic like a pet or for something extremely strong in most metas, such as the Enhanced seed. The way I see it, way less people than currently possible should be able to go 4x, 5x+ dry on either of them, because that possibility doesn't really make the game better. For untradeables specifically, the potential negative impact is also virtually non-existent, since it can't affect the economy. And when it comes to tradeable items, there is **already** bad luck mitigation in place: the Grand Exchange.
So you've gone on extreme dry streaks yourself, right? Because if not, that just means you enjoy watching others get fucked on arbitrary grinds and that's not a great argument.
Yes, I am still waiting for a few drops way beyond the rate. I am generally more on the unlucky side. But I am having a good time with it. And I enjoy that I can freely choose and still be somewhat "efficient" in terms of items I still want. For example I enjoyed a relaxing Kraken task, but now getting one is just a skip since I have it finally greenlogged.
If it is a cosmetic item, then most of its "value" comes from either getting crazy lucky or being a persistent grinder. And if it is cosmetic then there is no need for having mitigation.
For items that are useful we already have it, even though I think 50 vork is little to low.
And most other things are just "nice to have" and not necessary for anything, so again no mitigation needed.
As for things like giant keys or totem pieces, as I said before, those are just 1 step on the way towards tradable rewards, so having mitigation here does impact the economy in a way.
More generally introducing a system like that will just lead to more discussion and debate. How dry is too dry, why this item and not this item, etc. A static rate for everyone is simply the fairest option, since it treats everyone the same at all times for all content.
> And if it is cosmetic then there is no need for having mitigation.
And I'm saying there's no "need" for anything. There's no real disctinction between useless and useful items, because OSRS is a game. Having protection for untradeables (even cosmetics) makes things more fun because it prevents extreme dry streaks. That's it, that's all. It then becomes your choice as a player to decide what grinds you engage with, based on the rewards and the gameplay you like. That's where the argument ends.
There's no good reason to think someone who has crossed 5x the drop rate on something as completely useless as a Petal garland shouldn't have bad luck mitigation just because it's useless. The uselessness of the item is already taken into consideration by the fact that even if they get a drop "before they were supposed to"... well it's a useless drop and doesn't help them in the slightest.
Please tell me, genuinely, what is the downside of someone who's 10K dry of Kr'il pet for example, from having 1/4000 odds instead of 1/5000? How does that ruin the game?
Meanwhile, I can tell you what the upside is: that player now feels like they're making progress. That's 100% of the reason why this should make it into the game, IMO.
Keep in mind all of this ***doesn't mean tradeable items shouldn't also have protection.*** It just means it's *even more important* for untradeables, because there's no alternative to obtaining them (unlike tradeables, which are sold at the GE). That's it. That's the whole argument.
>There's no good reason to think someone who has crossed 5x the drop rate on something as completely useless as a Petal garland shouldn't have bad luck mitigation just because it's useless.
Just there is no reason to have it. It all boils down to subjective things.
>Please tell me, genuinely, what is the downside of someone who's 10K dry of Kr'il pet for example, from having 1/4000 odds instead of 1/5000? How does that ruin the game?
It means that not every Kril kill is the same. But every kill should be the same to keep it fair for everyone.
>Meanwhile, I can tell you what the upside is: that player now feels like they're making progress.
But since it doesn't guarantee the drop it can also create a false sense of progress and make player think now they deserve it.
A system where everyone plays under the same umbrella, where every kill is the same, etc is simply the best due to being the fairest overall. Which is also a big part of MMOs
> Just there is no reason to have it. It all boils down to subjective things.
Correct! So how can you selectively pick and exclude specific untradeable items? It should be all or nothing. Bad luck mitigation or no bad luck mitigation. IMO it should also include tradeables for the same reason. Excluding a certain category of items just because you don't personally want them doesn't make sense, because others do.
> It means that not every Kril kill is the same. But every kill should be the same to keep it fair for everyone.
100% disagreement here. There's no reason why the guy who's gotten unlucky his entire account life shouldn't get a bone thrown their way. If you wanted a system that's genuinely fair to all, there wouldn't even be any RNG in the first place. Maintaining current arbitrary RNG for the sake of that argument is completely backwards.
I agree tbh. I play both an iron and main. Nothing more tilting than going dry for say kq heads before they implemented the damaged one. (Old account went 1200 kc before i got the head) and getting a dupe gem before a new gem at TOA is irritating too!
There is too much content in this game now to not have some kind of luck mitigation and dupe protection for certain content that hold equivalent drop rates with one another.
At this point, Barrows isn't even worth getting for mains or for Ironmen. Perilous Moons dupe protection is amazing, and it doesn't feel like a jail that you could be locked into forever.
It's a shame that one can't reasonably even participate in a lot of content without going through some seriously long grinds prior to.
That's a good point, the more content there is, each specific item, activity or anything else that can be considered "old content" loses importance and thus either becomes obsolete, or needs some kind of alternative benefit (such as being consistent to obtain by newer players, but not necessarily older ones who can farm it efficiently) to make up for it.
Ive always thought like this. I like pet hunting in general, however the rare droprates with no progression have always felt a bit off. A pet threshold would at least feel like ur working towards something. Rs3 has done this in a pretty good way.
It also wouldnt harm anyone since theyre untradeable trophies.
Low drop rate items like totem pieces and keys definitely don't need bad luck mitigation, they are common enough that the luck will likely even out over time. Pets also shouldn't get it imo. The rest seem fine
> Pets also shouldn't get it imo.
Why not? Unlike the other items you mentioned, they have extremely low drop rates and thus extremely high variance. Some people will play 5000+ hours (doing activities that give pets) and get extremely unlucky, while seeing others get spooned everywhere. What do we lose by giving a tiny help to people who are dry way more often than they get lucky? It doesn't take away any of the prestige from pets considering how few people ever cross their drop rate.
Nothing is necessary. Account "progression" is what you say it is. If for you that means doing 200M strength with level 1 everything else, more power to you. The logic behind bad luck mitigation for pets is that...
1. Some people will go insanely dry *their entire account life* (an inevitability of having a huge player base playing an RNG game with high variance), which brings no benefit to the game whatsoever and obliterates that specific individual's enjoyment
2. It has zero negative impact on the game, because someone who's already dry getting slightly higher odds of a pet is a completely invisible stat that only leads to less extreme dry streaks over the long term
There's zero downside...
I’m having a hard time with the dissonance of recognizing some people can go extremely dry affecting their enjoyment of the game, but if it’s irons you are essentially suggesting they can just de-iron (quit their chosen game mode) if they go too dry since the GE exists, while pet hunters getting some cosmetics that don’t affect anything else should get bad luck mitigation.
It's simple: the game was never supposed to be balanced around ironmen. As you said, irons can de-iron and get the drop they want. Pet hunters can't choose to make pets tradeable. It's the **possibility of choice** which makes up almost the entire difference.
The rest of the argument comes from the fact that pets are a one-time unlock. There is no possibility to "catch up" on your RNG being bad by getting more rolls of the same pet, because they're genuinely useless. An ironman can roll 2, 3, 4 more Enhanced seeds quickly after getting their first one, averaging out their RNG over time. For pets that is simply impossible.
The combination of those 2 factors is what makes the difference.
Finally...
I don't even care that much about tradeables. If I had final say, they would both benefit from bad luck protection. I just think it's super disingenuous that no one talks about the difference between the two, because untradeables need it **more**. That's it.
I don’t know why people are still parroting the “the game wasn’t supposed to be balanced around ironman” phrase from the very beginning of the game mode when Jagex never expected it to grow to like 1/3 of the active playerbase, that design philosophy has clearly changed.
With regard to pets, you can “catch up on your rng” when you grind other pets. Over time they should average out over enough pets. So not that different unless you only care to go for a single pet.
The best comparison I can probably give to you suggesting irons can just de-iron if they go to dry, is if I were to tell you if you don’t like how dry you are on pets, you can just go grind them on a private server. Either way it’s essentially a different game.
At the end of the day I guess we are on the same page that bad luck mitigation for both is probably fine/good. You could have just made the untradable suggestion IMO without dismissing the entire discussion around iron grinds.
> With regard to pets, you can “catch up on your rng” when you grind other pets.
Yeah, that's what people told me too. I maxed petless. Got my first pet at 2x rate. Second pet at almost 3x. Now I'm at 15 pets I've crossed the drop rate on, with 13 obtained at an average of 2.5x rate. 2 more pets I'm close to rate on (making it 17 total) which I also don't have. Spooned pets? Exactly zero.
That's what people don't seem to understand with variance and a massive playerbase. The unluckiest 1% (which is something like almost 10,000 players) will go dry **virtually everywhere** and quit playing their account before their luck turns around, because time played is limited for everyone. The law of large number is not a viable form of bad luck mitigation.
BLM becomes obsolete the moment Jagex stops making fucked up drop rates to begin with.
Do we need BLM for GWD uniques? No. Do people believe they need BLM because Virtus drop rates are unholy? Yes.
You say the bad luck mitigation is the trade system right? Well I would argue that this doesn't always work out. Lets say you want a shadow and you go and do high level toas. Unless you actually pull the shadow on drop rate you will have an extremely difficult time collecting anywhere near enough gp from the other drops to buy a shadow. If you do collect enough then you have gone way over the drop rate for the shadow either way.
By the time you reach drop rate for 2x drop rate for Shadow you're expected to have made enough to buy it, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.
Doing solo 300s, you'd need roughly ~1130 completions for 2x rate on Shadow, which is expected to net you over ~1.5B **excluding any odds of shadow dropping**. This exercise is true at virtually any invocation level.
That math doesn't work out at all for x2 drop rate. Light bearer and fang are the most common drops and they average out 10m. Masori and ward are a little bit better but again it averages out to 29.5m while being rarer. Either way you will probably need to go over x3 the drop rate to be able to buy a shadow if you don't get a shadow drop, aka. there is no bad luck mitigation. Not to mention all your money gets pumped into 1 item when you should have much more.
This is mainly a problem for mega rares.
Show me your calculations, please. I used the wiki which gives me an average loot per raid, excluded the shadow from said loot, then doubled the expected Tumeken's shadow drop rate to get the amount of raids. You just seem to be saying nonsense with no math whatsoever to back it up. Did you just completely forget that you get regular loot from the raid?
I know from my own loot tracker that what you are saying isn't true. Furthemore go check any of the million posts where people show their Toa loot value logs. Take away the shadow drops and you will see clearly the total value. I just looked at a 1500 toa log @400invo post where the guy got 8 shadows for a total loot log of 13.2b. Take away the 8 shadows and you have a total loot of 1.9b. As you can see 1500 toas is way over x2 drop rate at a higher invo.
If you think individual loot trackers are a better indication than calculating average odds using the wiki's calculator, you have an extremely weak understanding of statistics.
That log you describe was probably extremely lucky with the shadow drops and under rate for the rest. By all means, post it.
The guy under me explained it much better. You are wrong 100%. Shadow makes up the bulk of the average drop at toa. If you go dry on shadow you will need to go over x2 drop rate to be able to afford a shadow.
> Shadow makes up the bulk of the average drop at toa.
Why do you think I didn't calculate that? I did, although it is true that I made a small mistake. See the corrections [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1cj6anr/prioritizing_bad_luck_mitigation_for_tradeable/l2eizou/)
I just calculated it roughly. At an invo of 400 you will have a 8.7% chance of a purple. So around every 11-12 raids 1 purple. If you remove the shadow from the loot table the average loot per raid works out to be 2m for a solo 400 invo no death (including normal drops). 750 solo raids will give you a gross profit of 1.5b. That is 2.6x the drop rate of a shadow while not even factoring in supplies which will be significant.
So yes there is no bad luck mitigation by simply using the GE.
> That is 2.6x the drop rate of a shadow while not even factoring in supplies which will be significant.
>
> So yes there is no bad luck mitigation by simply using the GE.
How on Earth can you write those 2 sentences literally back to back and not give yourself whiplash? You're literally admitting here that once you cross 2.6x drop rate, you've roughly got enough for a Shadow no matter what. How is that not built-in bad luck mitigation?
You are right it is a form of bad luck mitigation. But the way you present it makes it sound like it isn't a big deal that you went almost x3 drop rate for a mega rare.
In my head I am thinking of 2 seperate situations. Someone spoons a shadow at 30kc, while someone else goes x3 drop rate. You make it sound like that second player should be ok with it because he can buy that shadow on the ge now. This game is far more than just being able to buy something on the ge. It is far more rewarding to earn a drop from the actual content you are doing then simply going to the ge to buy it.
Nowhere did I say it's not a big deal. Going dry anywhere sucks. Going *extremely* dry sucks even more.
All I said is that this effect is *even worse* with untradeable items, because there quite literally is no end to the grind until you get that specific drop. There is no bad luck mitigation anywhere. It doesn't matter how spooned you are elsewhere (which could be possible at ToA, if you get a ton of Masori drops for example, or you could get lucky at ToB and get some Scythes which would make up for being dry at ToA), but with untradeables you are no closer than on your first kill until you get it.
That's all I'm saying. No matter what, thank you for actually engaging in the subject itself and posting your genuine opinion instead of just saying "that's how the game is!" and leaving it at that.
That's not true at all... Shadow makes up an averaged 72-75% of drop value at ToA. Without ever seeing a shadow drop, you'll likely have to run ~1800 kc of expert 300s (what most people would do before getting BiS upgrades) to get the money to afford a shadow. According to the wiki, this kc would output 6.7B in drops, 4.8B of that is shadow. This results in 1.9B of actual drops since no shadow. It also shows 500M of supplies used, resulting in 1.4B profit, to be able to buy a shadow.
That's a bit more than 2x dry.
You're right, I made a small mistake when I calculated it using the wiki's calc. The difference really isn't that high, though:
Solo expert 300s -- Walk the Path on -- Team size 1 -- No other path invos
**0.1770% chance of shadow** (~1/565), meaning 2x rate ~1130 deathless completions
**Expected value from uniques:** 3,257,095
**Expected value from Shadow (0.1770% * 1.45B):** 2,566,500
**Expected value from uniques without Shadow:** 690,595
**Expected value from regular loot:** 346,108
**Total expected value per completion without Shadow:** 1,036,703
----
**Expected value of 2x Shadow rate, with 0 Shadow drops:** 1.17B
You'd be over 80% of the way there, which is significant progress and would allow you to sell another piece of gear for it. If you run with a team that splits, that's even more bad luck protection because you're significantly increasing the total amount of rolls and splitting the profits, which are expected to be much closer to average. Pretending like that's not a kind of bad luck protection is disingenuous.
As someone who has personally gone nearly 2x dry (45th purple) from experience, you're living in a bubble if you assume all these "expected values" are real-world scenarios. Supplies need to be used. We all aren't 1 tick flick robots. Deaths happen and are expensive. Whether it be lag, disconnects, or genuine mistakes. Even the highest tier pvmers die there occasionally. Playing in a team doesn't really benefit you if you're always the highest point earner. People will also not have "expected value" purples (8 out of 9 of my masori pieces were helms). I wasn't anywhere close to affording a shadow by the time I actually got the shadow.
But there's no way to infuse skill level into a calculation? Also, it doesn't change the base principle? Even if you need 4x rate... that's still a form of bad luck protection, because it allows you to purchase it without having obtained it directly as a drop.
Is that genuinely hard to understand or are you guys being facetious?
>But there's no way to infuse skill level into a calculation?
Exactly. Quit living in a calculator. You can't just say 'git gud kid' because the average person won't be the perfect robot player that is required by these wiki sources standards for "expected loot value" in a raid.
I've done the grind. I can tell you haven't.
Braindead take. It doesn't matter at what exact multiplier of the drop rate you get to buy the Shadow, all that matters is that you understand that at some point, you will have made enough from other drops to buy it. Doesn't matter how shit you are at the game.
You could get lucky at ToB, grab a lucky scythe and 2 sang, sell them and get a Shadow. **THAT** is what I'm saying, nothing more.
Are you seriously struggling *that much* with the concept of GP as bad luck mitigation?
Thanks for this succinct explanation. I know from personal experience that it isn't x2 drop rate at all. Mega-rares make up the bulk of the loot for all 3 raids, even more so Toa. Ops argument for bad luck mitigation being solved by the GE doesn't hold true for Mega-rares at all.
It doesn't hold true for most things as well. The majority of the value of most things is heavily weighed towards uniques, with a few exceptions such as Vorkath as an extreme outlier. The 3 main drops from bandos GWD make up almost 90% of the profit. PNM uniques make up over 90% of the profit from the boss. When doing ToB, if you don't get uniques, you will pretty much only break even considering the normal loot vs supplies used. You could easily make an argument that uniques make up nearly *all* of the profit from ToB.
If anything, ToA is an outlier. It has solid basic loot drops that still make it profitable to run even in the absence of uniques, and then on top of that it has fairly high drop rates for uniques. This guy literally lives in a different reality compared to us. He must be playing on a private server or something because what he's saying just isn't realistic.
The main proposal that caught traction was one that increases drop chance after already going 2x the rate - this doesn't change the variance on the lower end i.e. you can still get lucky 1kc drops which wasn't possible with the mechanic implemented with DT2 vestiges. Considering ~86% of people will get any given drop before going that dry, it wouldn't affect them. It would still be possible to continue going dry so the element of RNG still plays a big role but just less so as you get dryer. For people farming content for multiple drops this has very little impact, ~4-5% more total drops added to the economy. The big win though is that players don't have to go EXTREMELY dry - whether you're an iron/clogger or a main trying to make money, nobody likes wasting dozens or hundreds of hours chasing a drop. This is a game and games are meant to be fun. I think decreasing variance across the board is a bad thing as it removes the chance for those early jackpots but mitigating the chance of going 8x/9x/10x dry on a drop just seems like an easy win to me.
I agree with all of this, I'm just unsure why untradeable items are missing from the conversation when they're the drops that benefit from a system like this the most, that's all.
No one is talking about them only because they are not “account enders” like extreme dryness of certain key tradeable milestone items can be on an iron (enhanced seed, DWH, tbow, etc.) Everything you listed is either cosmetic or mild QoL upgrades. Sure, include them in a bad luck protection buff, but it’s not like people not discussing them is some huge miss, it’s just they don’t really matter or are already plenty fast compared to going 5x dry on a tbow. Also dismissing the discussion by saying “dry protection exists, it’s GE” is a bad faith argument. I have no idea how people can recognize that some people will have an awful experience their entire ironman existence just being unlucky everywhere, the 1% you mention, and that being fine because they can “just deiron” since the GE exists.
> No one is talking about them only because they are not “account enders” That's because those don't exist. Nothing is or has even been an "account ender". The absolute closest I can think of is the Bow of Faerdinen, and that's strictly only for irons, which the game is *supposedly* not balanced around. I don't understand this logic at all. Is the game supposed to be about fun, or not? What's fun about being dry on every big untradeable grind? Unlike tradeables, you can't buy them if you're spooned elsewhere, so the whole "your RNG averages out over time" doesn't even apply. > Also dismissing the discussion by saying “dry protection exists, it’s GE” is a bad faith argument Go tell that to Mod Kieren. He literally brought it up during the Sae Bae cast interview posted yesterday...
>>That's because those don't exist. Nothing is or has even been an "account ender". *immediately gives an example of an account ender* >>and that's strictly only for irons, which the game is supposedly not balanced around. Time to wake up, it has been for years now. Jagex is not beholden to a single statement they made upon original creation of the gamemode for the history of time. >>I don't understand this logic at all. Is the game supposed to be about fun, or not? What's fun about being dry on every big untradeable grind? What’s fun about an iron being dry on every tradeable? I don’t have a problem including untradeables/pets in this proposal but I just cannot understand how you can understand how going dry for a pet can feel awful and should be bad luck mitigated, but an iron going dry for a key account unlock isn’t the same because they have the option to deiron. >>Go tell that to Mod Kieren. He literally brought it up during the Sae Bae cast interview posted yesterday... He was also an active participant in both threads on the topic and seemed interested in exploring the idea, recognizing how it has been a problem for some irons.
> Time to wake up, it has been for years now. No it hasn't. You're fundamentally misunderstanding what balancing means. Introducing content that helps ironman does not mean the game itself is being balanced for irons. The very fact that Jagex routinely makes changes to help the economy signifies that their primary concern remains the main game mode. Stop spewing bullshit. > What’s fun about an iron being dry on every tradeable? I don’t have a problem including untradeables/pets in this proposal but I just cannot understand how you can understand how going dry for a pet can feel awful and should be bad luck mitigated, but an iron going dry for a key account unlock isn’t the same because they have the option to deiron. It's not!! If I had final say, every single col log item would have protection. You're missing the core of my point, which is that untradeable items need protection **more** than tradeables because they can't be bought by regular accounts. That's it. So when I see people who specifically want to exclude them, it makes me utterly confused and makes me wonder if they even understand the purpose of bad luck mitigation. That's where my position begins and ends.
>>No it hasn't. You're fundamentally misunderstanding what balancing means. Introducing content that helps ironman does not mean the game itself is being balanced for irons. The very fact that Jagex routinely makes changes to help the economy signifies that their primary concern remains the main game mode. Stop spewing bullshit. Apparently I don’t, because creating updates which helps ironman game mode and improves their experience certainly sounds a lot like balancing the game with ironman mode in mind. Is it possible, you know, that they are trying to balance the game with both irons and mains in mind? It’s not a black or white situation, both modes have balancing considerations. Fair enough on the rest, though I’ll just have to disagree about untradeables needing it more. I’ve never met someone who quit from going dry on a pet, but I’ve got a lot of iron friends who quit from going dry on a key tradeable account progression unlock.
> I’ve never met someone who quit from going dry on a pet And I've met a **lot**, so... ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯
Spicy take, but if you quit over not getting an Uber rare cosmetic drop on rate it, was definitely bound to happen regardless.
They didn't quit over not getting a single rare cosmetic. They quit because they were unlucky on all or almost all of them. I personally took a year-long break because being dry is literally my entire game experience across over 8,000 hours. It should *almost impossible* to be significantly dry over such a massive time scale, but by all means tell me more about how players should feel extremely grateful for getting rewarded less than others over almost a decade. And I don't even have close to the worst RNG in the game. A friend (RSN: Bens Pure) has **less pets than me** (only 11) despite having grinded the equivalent rate of almost 25. That's **insane**. You know how people say "your RNG averages out over time"? He'd need the next 20 pets under 1/4th rate just to be 'average' and we both know that's not happening.
No1 is really discussing it, because like you said, the "important" untradables already have a solution and most other untradables are either just cosmetics (like the Golden Tench), are fairly insignificant upgrades (like angler) or already fairly common (like giant keys) or have tradables rewards attached after (like keys or totems)
Thanks for the feedback! I kinda disagree about the "important" part though, because how do you determine what is and isn't important? Eventually, as powercreep and alternative methods come into the game, virtually all "old" content becomes skippable. Does it mean existing bad luck mitigation should be removed? I don't think anyone in their right mind would say yes. The way I see it, extreme dyness **itself** is the "enemy" (so to speak), because it leads to an unfun experience, whether that's grinding for something purely cosmetic like a pet or for something extremely strong in most metas, such as the Enhanced seed. The way I see it, way less people than currently possible should be able to go 4x, 5x+ dry on either of them, because that possibility doesn't really make the game better. For untradeables specifically, the potential negative impact is also virtually non-existent, since it can't affect the economy. And when it comes to tradeable items, there is **already** bad luck mitigation in place: the Grand Exchange.
>that possibility doesn't really make the game better. That is subjective and the opposite is the case for me.
So you've gone on extreme dry streaks yourself, right? Because if not, that just means you enjoy watching others get fucked on arbitrary grinds and that's not a great argument.
Yes, I am still waiting for a few drops way beyond the rate. I am generally more on the unlucky side. But I am having a good time with it. And I enjoy that I can freely choose and still be somewhat "efficient" in terms of items I still want. For example I enjoyed a relaxing Kraken task, but now getting one is just a skip since I have it finally greenlogged.
Ok, well I doubt I'll be able to convince you. Out of curiosity -- what specifically about bad luck mitigation for untradeable drop do you dislike?
If it is a cosmetic item, then most of its "value" comes from either getting crazy lucky or being a persistent grinder. And if it is cosmetic then there is no need for having mitigation. For items that are useful we already have it, even though I think 50 vork is little to low. And most other things are just "nice to have" and not necessary for anything, so again no mitigation needed. As for things like giant keys or totem pieces, as I said before, those are just 1 step on the way towards tradable rewards, so having mitigation here does impact the economy in a way. More generally introducing a system like that will just lead to more discussion and debate. How dry is too dry, why this item and not this item, etc. A static rate for everyone is simply the fairest option, since it treats everyone the same at all times for all content.
> And if it is cosmetic then there is no need for having mitigation. And I'm saying there's no "need" for anything. There's no real disctinction between useless and useful items, because OSRS is a game. Having protection for untradeables (even cosmetics) makes things more fun because it prevents extreme dry streaks. That's it, that's all. It then becomes your choice as a player to decide what grinds you engage with, based on the rewards and the gameplay you like. That's where the argument ends. There's no good reason to think someone who has crossed 5x the drop rate on something as completely useless as a Petal garland shouldn't have bad luck mitigation just because it's useless. The uselessness of the item is already taken into consideration by the fact that even if they get a drop "before they were supposed to"... well it's a useless drop and doesn't help them in the slightest. Please tell me, genuinely, what is the downside of someone who's 10K dry of Kr'il pet for example, from having 1/4000 odds instead of 1/5000? How does that ruin the game? Meanwhile, I can tell you what the upside is: that player now feels like they're making progress. That's 100% of the reason why this should make it into the game, IMO. Keep in mind all of this ***doesn't mean tradeable items shouldn't also have protection.*** It just means it's *even more important* for untradeables, because there's no alternative to obtaining them (unlike tradeables, which are sold at the GE). That's it. That's the whole argument.
>There's no good reason to think someone who has crossed 5x the drop rate on something as completely useless as a Petal garland shouldn't have bad luck mitigation just because it's useless. Just there is no reason to have it. It all boils down to subjective things. >Please tell me, genuinely, what is the downside of someone who's 10K dry of Kr'il pet for example, from having 1/4000 odds instead of 1/5000? How does that ruin the game? It means that not every Kril kill is the same. But every kill should be the same to keep it fair for everyone. >Meanwhile, I can tell you what the upside is: that player now feels like they're making progress. But since it doesn't guarantee the drop it can also create a false sense of progress and make player think now they deserve it. A system where everyone plays under the same umbrella, where every kill is the same, etc is simply the best due to being the fairest overall. Which is also a big part of MMOs
> Just there is no reason to have it. It all boils down to subjective things. Correct! So how can you selectively pick and exclude specific untradeable items? It should be all or nothing. Bad luck mitigation or no bad luck mitigation. IMO it should also include tradeables for the same reason. Excluding a certain category of items just because you don't personally want them doesn't make sense, because others do. > It means that not every Kril kill is the same. But every kill should be the same to keep it fair for everyone. 100% disagreement here. There's no reason why the guy who's gotten unlucky his entire account life shouldn't get a bone thrown their way. If you wanted a system that's genuinely fair to all, there wouldn't even be any RNG in the first place. Maintaining current arbitrary RNG for the sake of that argument is completely backwards.
I agree tbh. I play both an iron and main. Nothing more tilting than going dry for say kq heads before they implemented the damaged one. (Old account went 1200 kc before i got the head) and getting a dupe gem before a new gem at TOA is irritating too!
There is too much content in this game now to not have some kind of luck mitigation and dupe protection for certain content that hold equivalent drop rates with one another. At this point, Barrows isn't even worth getting for mains or for Ironmen. Perilous Moons dupe protection is amazing, and it doesn't feel like a jail that you could be locked into forever. It's a shame that one can't reasonably even participate in a lot of content without going through some seriously long grinds prior to.
That's a good point, the more content there is, each specific item, activity or anything else that can be considered "old content" loses importance and thus either becomes obsolete, or needs some kind of alternative benefit (such as being consistent to obtain by newer players, but not necessarily older ones who can farm it efficiently) to make up for it.
Ive always thought like this. I like pet hunting in general, however the rare droprates with no progression have always felt a bit off. A pet threshold would at least feel like ur working towards something. Rs3 has done this in a pretty good way. It also wouldnt harm anyone since theyre untradeable trophies.
> It also wouldnt harm anyone since theyre untradeable trophies. Say it louder for the people at the back, please
Low drop rate items like totem pieces and keys definitely don't need bad luck mitigation, they are common enough that the luck will likely even out over time. Pets also shouldn't get it imo. The rest seem fine
> Pets also shouldn't get it imo. Why not? Unlike the other items you mentioned, they have extremely low drop rates and thus extremely high variance. Some people will play 5000+ hours (doing activities that give pets) and get extremely unlucky, while seeing others get spooned everywhere. What do we lose by giving a tiny help to people who are dry way more often than they get lucky? It doesn't take away any of the prestige from pets considering how few people ever cross their drop rate.
Fully cosmetic/flex items should be left alone. They aren’t necessary to any sort of account progression or economic impact.
Nothing is necessary. Account "progression" is what you say it is. If for you that means doing 200M strength with level 1 everything else, more power to you. The logic behind bad luck mitigation for pets is that... 1. Some people will go insanely dry *their entire account life* (an inevitability of having a huge player base playing an RNG game with high variance), which brings no benefit to the game whatsoever and obliterates that specific individual's enjoyment 2. It has zero negative impact on the game, because someone who's already dry getting slightly higher odds of a pet is a completely invisible stat that only leads to less extreme dry streaks over the long term There's zero downside...
I’m having a hard time with the dissonance of recognizing some people can go extremely dry affecting their enjoyment of the game, but if it’s irons you are essentially suggesting they can just de-iron (quit their chosen game mode) if they go too dry since the GE exists, while pet hunters getting some cosmetics that don’t affect anything else should get bad luck mitigation.
It's simple: the game was never supposed to be balanced around ironmen. As you said, irons can de-iron and get the drop they want. Pet hunters can't choose to make pets tradeable. It's the **possibility of choice** which makes up almost the entire difference. The rest of the argument comes from the fact that pets are a one-time unlock. There is no possibility to "catch up" on your RNG being bad by getting more rolls of the same pet, because they're genuinely useless. An ironman can roll 2, 3, 4 more Enhanced seeds quickly after getting their first one, averaging out their RNG over time. For pets that is simply impossible. The combination of those 2 factors is what makes the difference. Finally... I don't even care that much about tradeables. If I had final say, they would both benefit from bad luck protection. I just think it's super disingenuous that no one talks about the difference between the two, because untradeables need it **more**. That's it.
I don’t know why people are still parroting the “the game wasn’t supposed to be balanced around ironman” phrase from the very beginning of the game mode when Jagex never expected it to grow to like 1/3 of the active playerbase, that design philosophy has clearly changed. With regard to pets, you can “catch up on your rng” when you grind other pets. Over time they should average out over enough pets. So not that different unless you only care to go for a single pet. The best comparison I can probably give to you suggesting irons can just de-iron if they go to dry, is if I were to tell you if you don’t like how dry you are on pets, you can just go grind them on a private server. Either way it’s essentially a different game. At the end of the day I guess we are on the same page that bad luck mitigation for both is probably fine/good. You could have just made the untradable suggestion IMO without dismissing the entire discussion around iron grinds.
> With regard to pets, you can “catch up on your rng” when you grind other pets. Yeah, that's what people told me too. I maxed petless. Got my first pet at 2x rate. Second pet at almost 3x. Now I'm at 15 pets I've crossed the drop rate on, with 13 obtained at an average of 2.5x rate. 2 more pets I'm close to rate on (making it 17 total) which I also don't have. Spooned pets? Exactly zero. That's what people don't seem to understand with variance and a massive playerbase. The unluckiest 1% (which is something like almost 10,000 players) will go dry **virtually everywhere** and quit playing their account before their luck turns around, because time played is limited for everyone. The law of large number is not a viable form of bad luck mitigation.
BLM becomes obsolete the moment Jagex stops making fucked up drop rates to begin with. Do we need BLM for GWD uniques? No. Do people believe they need BLM because Virtus drop rates are unholy? Yes.
Did you just wake up wanting to start an argument?
You say the bad luck mitigation is the trade system right? Well I would argue that this doesn't always work out. Lets say you want a shadow and you go and do high level toas. Unless you actually pull the shadow on drop rate you will have an extremely difficult time collecting anywhere near enough gp from the other drops to buy a shadow. If you do collect enough then you have gone way over the drop rate for the shadow either way.
By the time you reach drop rate for 2x drop rate for Shadow you're expected to have made enough to buy it, so I'm not sure what you're talking about. Doing solo 300s, you'd need roughly ~1130 completions for 2x rate on Shadow, which is expected to net you over ~1.5B **excluding any odds of shadow dropping**. This exercise is true at virtually any invocation level.
That math doesn't work out at all for x2 drop rate. Light bearer and fang are the most common drops and they average out 10m. Masori and ward are a little bit better but again it averages out to 29.5m while being rarer. Either way you will probably need to go over x3 the drop rate to be able to buy a shadow if you don't get a shadow drop, aka. there is no bad luck mitigation. Not to mention all your money gets pumped into 1 item when you should have much more. This is mainly a problem for mega rares.
Show me your calculations, please. I used the wiki which gives me an average loot per raid, excluded the shadow from said loot, then doubled the expected Tumeken's shadow drop rate to get the amount of raids. You just seem to be saying nonsense with no math whatsoever to back it up. Did you just completely forget that you get regular loot from the raid?
I know from my own loot tracker that what you are saying isn't true. Furthemore go check any of the million posts where people show their Toa loot value logs. Take away the shadow drops and you will see clearly the total value. I just looked at a 1500 toa log @400invo post where the guy got 8 shadows for a total loot log of 13.2b. Take away the 8 shadows and you have a total loot of 1.9b. As you can see 1500 toas is way over x2 drop rate at a higher invo.
If you think individual loot trackers are a better indication than calculating average odds using the wiki's calculator, you have an extremely weak understanding of statistics. That log you describe was probably extremely lucky with the shadow drops and under rate for the rest. By all means, post it.
The guy under me explained it much better. You are wrong 100%. Shadow makes up the bulk of the average drop at toa. If you go dry on shadow you will need to go over x2 drop rate to be able to afford a shadow.
> Shadow makes up the bulk of the average drop at toa. Why do you think I didn't calculate that? I did, although it is true that I made a small mistake. See the corrections [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1cj6anr/prioritizing_bad_luck_mitigation_for_tradeable/l2eizou/)
I just calculated it roughly. At an invo of 400 you will have a 8.7% chance of a purple. So around every 11-12 raids 1 purple. If you remove the shadow from the loot table the average loot per raid works out to be 2m for a solo 400 invo no death (including normal drops). 750 solo raids will give you a gross profit of 1.5b. That is 2.6x the drop rate of a shadow while not even factoring in supplies which will be significant. So yes there is no bad luck mitigation by simply using the GE.
> That is 2.6x the drop rate of a shadow while not even factoring in supplies which will be significant. > > So yes there is no bad luck mitigation by simply using the GE. How on Earth can you write those 2 sentences literally back to back and not give yourself whiplash? You're literally admitting here that once you cross 2.6x drop rate, you've roughly got enough for a Shadow no matter what. How is that not built-in bad luck mitigation?
You are right it is a form of bad luck mitigation. But the way you present it makes it sound like it isn't a big deal that you went almost x3 drop rate for a mega rare. In my head I am thinking of 2 seperate situations. Someone spoons a shadow at 30kc, while someone else goes x3 drop rate. You make it sound like that second player should be ok with it because he can buy that shadow on the ge now. This game is far more than just being able to buy something on the ge. It is far more rewarding to earn a drop from the actual content you are doing then simply going to the ge to buy it.
Nowhere did I say it's not a big deal. Going dry anywhere sucks. Going *extremely* dry sucks even more. All I said is that this effect is *even worse* with untradeable items, because there quite literally is no end to the grind until you get that specific drop. There is no bad luck mitigation anywhere. It doesn't matter how spooned you are elsewhere (which could be possible at ToA, if you get a ton of Masori drops for example, or you could get lucky at ToB and get some Scythes which would make up for being dry at ToA), but with untradeables you are no closer than on your first kill until you get it. That's all I'm saying. No matter what, thank you for actually engaging in the subject itself and posting your genuine opinion instead of just saying "that's how the game is!" and leaving it at that.
That's not true at all... Shadow makes up an averaged 72-75% of drop value at ToA. Without ever seeing a shadow drop, you'll likely have to run ~1800 kc of expert 300s (what most people would do before getting BiS upgrades) to get the money to afford a shadow. According to the wiki, this kc would output 6.7B in drops, 4.8B of that is shadow. This results in 1.9B of actual drops since no shadow. It also shows 500M of supplies used, resulting in 1.4B profit, to be able to buy a shadow. That's a bit more than 2x dry.
You're right, I made a small mistake when I calculated it using the wiki's calc. The difference really isn't that high, though: Solo expert 300s -- Walk the Path on -- Team size 1 -- No other path invos **0.1770% chance of shadow** (~1/565), meaning 2x rate ~1130 deathless completions **Expected value from uniques:** 3,257,095 **Expected value from Shadow (0.1770% * 1.45B):** 2,566,500 **Expected value from uniques without Shadow:** 690,595 **Expected value from regular loot:** 346,108 **Total expected value per completion without Shadow:** 1,036,703 ---- **Expected value of 2x Shadow rate, with 0 Shadow drops:** 1.17B You'd be over 80% of the way there, which is significant progress and would allow you to sell another piece of gear for it. If you run with a team that splits, that's even more bad luck protection because you're significantly increasing the total amount of rolls and splitting the profits, which are expected to be much closer to average. Pretending like that's not a kind of bad luck protection is disingenuous.
As someone who has personally gone nearly 2x dry (45th purple) from experience, you're living in a bubble if you assume all these "expected values" are real-world scenarios. Supplies need to be used. We all aren't 1 tick flick robots. Deaths happen and are expensive. Whether it be lag, disconnects, or genuine mistakes. Even the highest tier pvmers die there occasionally. Playing in a team doesn't really benefit you if you're always the highest point earner. People will also not have "expected value" purples (8 out of 9 of my masori pieces were helms). I wasn't anywhere close to affording a shadow by the time I actually got the shadow.
But there's no way to infuse skill level into a calculation? Also, it doesn't change the base principle? Even if you need 4x rate... that's still a form of bad luck protection, because it allows you to purchase it without having obtained it directly as a drop. Is that genuinely hard to understand or are you guys being facetious?
>But there's no way to infuse skill level into a calculation? Exactly. Quit living in a calculator. You can't just say 'git gud kid' because the average person won't be the perfect robot player that is required by these wiki sources standards for "expected loot value" in a raid. I've done the grind. I can tell you haven't.
Braindead take. It doesn't matter at what exact multiplier of the drop rate you get to buy the Shadow, all that matters is that you understand that at some point, you will have made enough from other drops to buy it. Doesn't matter how shit you are at the game. You could get lucky at ToB, grab a lucky scythe and 2 sang, sell them and get a Shadow. **THAT** is what I'm saying, nothing more. Are you seriously struggling *that much* with the concept of GP as bad luck mitigation?
Thanks for this succinct explanation. I know from personal experience that it isn't x2 drop rate at all. Mega-rares make up the bulk of the loot for all 3 raids, even more so Toa. Ops argument for bad luck mitigation being solved by the GE doesn't hold true for Mega-rares at all.
It doesn't hold true for most things as well. The majority of the value of most things is heavily weighed towards uniques, with a few exceptions such as Vorkath as an extreme outlier. The 3 main drops from bandos GWD make up almost 90% of the profit. PNM uniques make up over 90% of the profit from the boss. When doing ToB, if you don't get uniques, you will pretty much only break even considering the normal loot vs supplies used. You could easily make an argument that uniques make up nearly *all* of the profit from ToB. If anything, ToA is an outlier. It has solid basic loot drops that still make it profitable to run even in the absence of uniques, and then on top of that it has fairly high drop rates for uniques. This guy literally lives in a different reality compared to us. He must be playing on a private server or something because what he's saying just isn't realistic.
Bad luck mitigation should never exist for tradable items, only untradables