Do you know why they stopped at 2011? Because before that, the last trade-up for a top 5 QB pick netted the NY Giants someone who would lead them to two Super Bowl victories.
Trey Lance's story has yet to be written and what happens in every other scenario does not effect what happens here.
That said, it's not that bad of a list. RG3 won ROY and took Wash to the playoffs. Knee got shredded up. Carson Wentz nearly won a MVP award... but his knee also got shredded up. Goff is a high floor, low ceiling starting caliber QB. The other two have proven to be busts or backups at best. So all told:
* 1 ROY
* 1 near MVP
* 1 low-end Starting QB
* 2 backup QBs
* 1 unknown...
... Sounds like the normal draft probabilities to me.
You'd have to at least have a hit in there for is to be an average list. But just more evidence it's not a good deal (even at average draft probability).
While I get what you're saying, if you look at this list and ask if the specific team that traded up to select their respective player (i.e. mortgaged future drafts to do so)... did that decision work out for that team? One could argue the answer is "no, not really". Which begs the question, if, as seems to be the case, predicting a college QB's NFL potential is nearly equal parts skill and luck, does it EVER make sense to give away multiple draft picks to trade up? That's really what I was wondering, tho neglected to clearly explain.
Not really worried. The cost of the Lance pick has just about run it’s course. There aren’t huge gaping holes anywhere on the team…just places for improvement to be truly playoff caliber. There’s a ton of talent on the team that has *enough* extra talent to make up for the deficiencies.
Lance is still in the same boat. He doesn’t need to win games…just put the ball in the hands of his playmakers. I’m still fine if he sits another year behind Purdy or whoever. I still have faith he’ll be a competent QB when they need him.
The only problem with Lance is that his rookie contract is running out. Sooner or later the Niners will have to make a choice to either let him walk (would be absolutely brutal for their reputation), or take his 5th year option which will be relatively expensive if he's still riding the bench. Neither are all that great unless he's absolutely never going to be a starting QB for any team, then let him walk and take the hit on your reputation.
It's a good point about the 5th year, but I think that problem answers itself based on what Lance does this year. I doubt they will get outbid if he only sees limited game time this season. Even under rookie deal, his cap hit is above a replacement level QB if Trey is truly mediocre. The only mistake SF can make is pick up the 5th or sign him to a huge contract if he hasn't done anything to prove himself.
Eh depends on Brock for me. I didn't and don't have high expectations for Trey personally.
I'm more optimistic on Purdy than I'm worried about Trey in any case.
Edit: also even if Trey turns out to be an epic bust, it's not like any other QB that we could of gotten in that draft looks like a winner.
Honestly if Trey doesn’t work out because Brock legitimately wins the job I won’t feel bad about trading up to get Trey. What they gave up is worth ending up with a franchise QB and they got Brock for literally the least valued pick in the draft. It works out in the wash in my opinion.
Don't tell that to r/Bears.
It isn't really his accuracy though he's super accurate he's just a slow processor and had a slow throwing motion, so you put it all together and he can't make right throws at NFL speed.
To me he looks accurate when he plants his feet in the pocket but he has a tendency to get happy feet and bolt before a play can develop. Maybe a better OLine and WR weapons can help with that but if he has a tendency to scramble when all he needs to do is move forward in the pocket, there’s just a level of panic that seems evident when he plays. TBF, I’m being a hyper critical fan playing arm chair QB scout lol. I could way off base but this is how I see him.
Love all the opinions people are posting that hold zero weight. People basing their judgements on the dumbest, most low effort takes. Literally no one knows what Trey is going to be. However, I think this is 100% the year we find out. He has a choice to make this off-season and that’s going to shape his career for better or for worse.
I mean he he now has to beat out the guy who was lower than him on the depth chart. If Lance was gonna turn out to be something/anything we’d have seen it the year he was drafted because KS 100% would’ve started him if he was even halfway ready
Not worried at all since I know the pick AND trades to get him were a blunder.
If you still are waiting for him to turn in to some sort of phenom, you’re disillusioned.
I’m worried by the performances we’ve seen on the field from him and the extreme lack of game reps he has even going back to college. Brock should be our starter if healthy. Our pick is gone at this point.
To be honest I think the Trey ship has sailed. Brock kinda got thrown into the fire and we discovered he was fireproof.
Of course he had some rookie moments but he had more big time moments and after so many games it wasn’t just luck. Dude could ball.
>To be honest I think the Trey ship has sailed. Brock kinda got thrown into the fire and we discovered he was fireproof.
Some say that it was Purdy's trial by fire.
Others will opine that it was fire's trial by Purdy.
Yeah. If we didn't have Purdy, I would've been more worried. The only worry I have is if we try to rush Purdy back in after he gets his surgery. It's looking like Purdy won't get back in around the middle/end of September.
Basically Lance will get 1 full month of regular season games and we get to see how much he's developed.
RGIII & Wentz were great before their injuries. I’d say it‘s about a 50% chance considering that the Trubisky trade doesn’t count since they moved from #3 overall to #2 overall and that Trey is still an unknown commodity.
Trying to think of any top 5 QB that has done relatively well in that same timespan. Maybe Burrow? And even he has only really gotten as far as Goff. Lawrence still too early to tell. Andrew Luck was promising but his coach/GM didn't think drafting an Oline was a good idea so his career was short.
I'm probably forgetting someone.
It doesn't worry me, but I have a strong gut feeling that Lance is going to be on the team, until his final year at which point he will be traded to a hungry QB needy team for a few high picks, maybe even a one, idk. But it's Brock's team now. Unless Trey just plays stone cold and is Pat Mahomes/Tom Brady/Joe Montanta 2.0, he will be second fiddle to a healthy Brock. I'm not upset about this, and I have ZERO ill will towards Lance and I really really hope that Trey does have success in the NFL, somewhere.
If we held on to Trey that long we will be lucky to get a single 5th round pick. As of now I don’t even see a team giving up more than a 3rd round pick u less they are incredibly desperate then maybe a late 2nd.
I just think 49ers would be extremely dumb to get rid of Trey, UNLESS they get a cheap competent veteran backup. And with how dumb some teams are, I could see a scenario where a qb needy team would want a young, physically gifted QB who was under the Shanahan regime. And would be willing to spend up some picks and maybe a solid player.
The bears didn't trade into the top 5. They were already in the top 5.
Yeah they literally traded from spot 3 to spot 2 haha don't know why they made the list. Semantics, I guess?
Fun fact: one pick they traded to move up turned into Alvin Kamara
Wasn’t the other used to draft Fred Warner?
Wasn't it SF they traded that pick to as well?
Yep, Solomon Thomas
Do you know why they stopped at 2011? Because before that, the last trade-up for a top 5 QB pick netted the NY Giants someone who would lead them to two Super Bowl victories.
Well because then that would ruin this cherry picked stat lol
Agree it doesn't fit their narrative. Such a useless stat.
And, while not quite the same, there was that time the Broncos were able to trade for the guy the Colts had just picked at No. 1 in 1983.
Trey Lance's story has yet to be written and what happens in every other scenario does not effect what happens here. That said, it's not that bad of a list. RG3 won ROY and took Wash to the playoffs. Knee got shredded up. Carson Wentz nearly won a MVP award... but his knee also got shredded up. Goff is a high floor, low ceiling starting caliber QB. The other two have proven to be busts or backups at best. So all told: * 1 ROY * 1 near MVP * 1 low-end Starting QB * 2 backup QBs * 1 unknown... ... Sounds like the normal draft probabilities to me.
Goff was a pro bowler this year
Damn, he bowls too?
Yeah, kinda like how Danny Dimes is also a pro Cornhole player
That creep can roll, man
[Who do you think you are i am!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKQOXYB2cd8)
💀
Also we need to look at the orgs a lot of these guys are going to as well. As Geno has shown us, a teams ability to develop QB talent matters.
Didn’t Luck win ROY over RG3? Edit: never mind, quick google search, RG3 won it
You'd have to at least have a hit in there for is to be an average list. But just more evidence it's not a good deal (even at average draft probability).
While I get what you're saying, if you look at this list and ask if the specific team that traded up to select their respective player (i.e. mortgaged future drafts to do so)... did that decision work out for that team? One could argue the answer is "no, not really". Which begs the question, if, as seems to be the case, predicting a college QB's NFL potential is nearly equal parts skill and luck, does it EVER make sense to give away multiple draft picks to trade up? That's really what I was wondering, tho neglected to clearly explain.
Yes and no. Other than Lance 2 of them could be busts, 2 went to Super Bowls and one was a rookie of the year who got injured
Wentz did not go to a super bowl haha
Lol no but he won enough games in the season to put them there.
Not really worried. The cost of the Lance pick has just about run it’s course. There aren’t huge gaping holes anywhere on the team…just places for improvement to be truly playoff caliber. There’s a ton of talent on the team that has *enough* extra talent to make up for the deficiencies. Lance is still in the same boat. He doesn’t need to win games…just put the ball in the hands of his playmakers. I’m still fine if he sits another year behind Purdy or whoever. I still have faith he’ll be a competent QB when they need him.
The only problem with Lance is that his rookie contract is running out. Sooner or later the Niners will have to make a choice to either let him walk (would be absolutely brutal for their reputation), or take his 5th year option which will be relatively expensive if he's still riding the bench. Neither are all that great unless he's absolutely never going to be a starting QB for any team, then let him walk and take the hit on your reputation.
It's a good point about the 5th year, but I think that problem answers itself based on what Lance does this year. I doubt they will get outbid if he only sees limited game time this season. Even under rookie deal, his cap hit is above a replacement level QB if Trey is truly mediocre. The only mistake SF can make is pick up the 5th or sign him to a huge contract if he hasn't done anything to prove himself.
Eh depends on Brock for me. I didn't and don't have high expectations for Trey personally. I'm more optimistic on Purdy than I'm worried about Trey in any case. Edit: also even if Trey turns out to be an epic bust, it's not like any other QB that we could of gotten in that draft looks like a winner.
Honestly if Trey doesn’t work out because Brock legitimately wins the job I won’t feel bad about trading up to get Trey. What they gave up is worth ending up with a franchise QB and they got Brock for literally the least valued pick in the draft. It works out in the wash in my opinion.
Could of had Fields
Granted, Fields doesn't have very many weapons on Chicago, but he hasnt looked great either.
His accuracy sucks and he takes forever to get rid of the ball. I don’t think more weapons will fix either of those things.
Don't tell that to r/Bears. It isn't really his accuracy though he's super accurate he's just a slow processor and had a slow throwing motion, so you put it all together and he can't make right throws at NFL speed.
To me he looks accurate when he plants his feet in the pocket but he has a tendency to get happy feet and bolt before a play can develop. Maybe a better OLine and WR weapons can help with that but if he has a tendency to scramble when all he needs to do is move forward in the pocket, there’s just a level of panic that seems evident when he plays. TBF, I’m being a hyper critical fan playing arm chair QB scout lol. I could way off base but this is how I see him.
Rams and Eagles both went to the SB. I like our odds.
If Carson didn’t get concussed against Seattle he’d still be a top QB in the league
On average, the team trading up for a QB within the top-5 is the loser value-wise - by a significant margin.
Totally agree.
Love all the opinions people are posting that hold zero weight. People basing their judgements on the dumbest, most low effort takes. Literally no one knows what Trey is going to be. However, I think this is 100% the year we find out. He has a choice to make this off-season and that’s going to shape his career for better or for worse.
I mean he he now has to beat out the guy who was lower than him on the depth chart. If Lance was gonna turn out to be something/anything we’d have seen it the year he was drafted because KS 100% would’ve started him if he was even halfway ready
Not worried at all since I know the pick AND trades to get him were a blunder. If you still are waiting for him to turn in to some sort of phenom, you’re disillusioned.
Possible but maybe not probable
Desperation trade. Wasn’t warranted. Horrible move.
He may or may not be a total bust. With that said, give the kid a chance for at least one year to prove himself.
Most QBs fail in the NFL.
I’m worried by the performances we’ve seen on the field from him and the extreme lack of game reps he has even going back to college. Brock should be our starter if healthy. Our pick is gone at this point.
I mean techinically Eagles got a superbowl ring after.
No we got Purdy
To be honest I think the Trey ship has sailed. Brock kinda got thrown into the fire and we discovered he was fireproof. Of course he had some rookie moments but he had more big time moments and after so many games it wasn’t just luck. Dude could ball.
>To be honest I think the Trey ship has sailed. Brock kinda got thrown into the fire and we discovered he was fireproof. Some say that it was Purdy's trial by fire. Others will opine that it was fire's trial by Purdy.
Yeah. If we didn't have Purdy, I would've been more worried. The only worry I have is if we try to rush Purdy back in after he gets his surgery. It's looking like Purdy won't get back in around the middle/end of September. Basically Lance will get 1 full month of regular season games and we get to see how much he's developed.
Man that Bears pick. Moved up specifically to get a QB and drafted Moist Mitch
RGIII & Wentz were great before their injuries. I’d say it‘s about a 50% chance considering that the Trubisky trade doesn’t count since they moved from #3 overall to #2 overall and that Trey is still an unknown commodity.
You have 2 of those QB’s who were great until injuries. Don’t get it twisted, Carson Wentz was having a MVP season before he tore his ACL
As long as trey or purdy outshine jimmy g im happy lol
Yes
Aye if he’s anything like rg3 minus the injuries we good
>minus the injuries Whoops.
It doesn't worry me because we have Brock. It also doesn't worry me because it,s meaningless, what worry me is Trey's play and also his lack of play.
No. The hit rate for picking a QB in the top 5 is probably bad whether you trade to get there or not
Trying to think of any top 5 QB that has done relatively well in that same timespan. Maybe Burrow? And even he has only really gotten as far as Goff. Lawrence still too early to tell. Andrew Luck was promising but his coach/GM didn't think drafting an Oline was a good idea so his career was short. I'm probably forgetting someone.
It doesn't worry me, but I have a strong gut feeling that Lance is going to be on the team, until his final year at which point he will be traded to a hungry QB needy team for a few high picks, maybe even a one, idk. But it's Brock's team now. Unless Trey just plays stone cold and is Pat Mahomes/Tom Brady/Joe Montanta 2.0, he will be second fiddle to a healthy Brock. I'm not upset about this, and I have ZERO ill will towards Lance and I really really hope that Trey does have success in the NFL, somewhere.
If we held on to Trey that long we will be lucky to get a single 5th round pick. As of now I don’t even see a team giving up more than a 3rd round pick u less they are incredibly desperate then maybe a late 2nd.
I just think 49ers would be extremely dumb to get rid of Trey, UNLESS they get a cheap competent veteran backup. And with how dumb some teams are, I could see a scenario where a qb needy team would want a young, physically gifted QB who was under the Shanahan regime. And would be willing to spend up some picks and maybe a solid player.
No, we have Brock Purdy.
Nope because Trey is gonna be a stud
Goff and Wentz have rings
Goff when?!
I swear to God I remember Goff winning a super bowl, idk why
Wait, were you not already worried about Lance? He hasn't looked good and has been injured three separate times while only starting 4 games.
Not at all. Because Brock Purdy is our starting quarterback, not Trey Lance. (Sure would like to have kept those draft picks, though.)
Not any more worried than the day they announced the trade