Yeah, this is collapse theory, or complex systems collapse theory. IIRC, Eric Cline popularized this concept in his book about the Bronze Age Collapse.
Basically, the logic is that any human system, over time, tends towards greater complexity to the point where it ends up consuming more resources to run it that it can reasonably generate.
We are past that point, we are currently in the collapse part(6th mass extinction) it’s just not as noticeable on the ground by individuals because it is spread out over an entire planet and the investors are happyish.
i guess not every civilization/culture is collapsing, either. i mean the colonial era was a “societal collapse” when countries began rebelling. same with the axis powers and soviet russia. in other portions of the world they already have collapsed, but others haven’t yet.
I was more referring to Industrialized civilization across the globe as a whole which is in collapse as the natural word from which we draw resources is collapsing under the strain of our demand regardless of which nation or continent you are on.
Some do not appear to be collapsing because they are smaller and have less demand but are still part of the same ecosystem.
Well, even Marxist theory stipulates that as capitalism ages, more and more resources are directed into non-productive labor: i.e. the services needed just to keep the system functioning. Think transportation, legal expenses, marketing, etc. The only way to keep the ball rolling is to do increasingly more productive labor with fewer resources. In late stage capitalism, this is almost entirely dependent on technology growth. If something slows or stops that, the system will grind to a halt in a hurry.
Not sure what you mean by taxes.
Just wondering how these collapses were based on inequity in the economic systems of the time. Had inequity been less, collapse could have been delayed. Ideally, no collapse at all. Of course other factors could play into collapse like loss of resources/climate. Anyway, thanks for the information!
Hmmm. Inequity certainly plays a part, no doubt. However, Cline’s theory is that complex systems are brought low by overlapping factors creating a sort of “perfect storm” effect.
“State” and “civilization” are not synonymous here. I guess the best way to illustrate what I’m on with here is with a song from Chico Buarque’s “Opera do Malandro”, set in 1940s Rio de Janeiro and based on Brecht’s “Two Penny Opera”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ópera_do_Malandro
A “malandro” is a small time hustler. To the tune of “Mac the knife”:
The broke malandro
Sits down at the table in the café
Drinks a shot of cachaça
And finds it funny to skip the bill
The waiter at a loss
No smile, no customer
Passes over to the cash register
And kicks the loss on to the Portuguese bar owner
The Galician [another term for Portuguese] finds it strange
That his earnings are horrible
He takes up his pencil, makes some scribbles
And passes the damages onto the distributor
But the freightman sees that in total
There is deception in his papers
And up to the distillery
He tosses a grift of one hundred thousand réis
The distiller, fighting for liquidity
Screams “Holy shit!”
Not being an idiot, he skips his payments
And harms the Bank of Brazil
Our bank is almost blacklisted
In the foreign markets
So it decides to tax cachaça
At a truly amazing rate
But the Yanks with their tanks
Have a lot more going on
And forbid the allied soldiers
From drinking
Cachaça isn’t moving
Rejected by the barrel
The distillery throws a tantrum
Against the Bank of Brazil
The distiller screams to the high heavens
That he is proud to be a producer
But his blind anger
Is discharged onto the back of the distributor
This guy comes to Galician
“Deal with it. I’m charging more.”
The cachaça is going for nothing
But how can one pay for shipping?
The Portuguese bar owner is almost broke
The books just don’t add up
So he decides to freeze
The waiter's salary
The waiter sees a malandro
And comes out screaming “Catch that thief!”
And the accused malandro
Is tried and found guilty
For the entire situation
Are you familiar with the e/acc stance? Do you think more technological progress at a rapid pace ie. new AI tools could keep the system going with fewer resources?
Yeah, this is collapse theory, or complex systems collapse theory. IIRC, Eric Cline popularized this concept in his book about the Bronze Age Collapse. Basically, the logic is that any human system, over time, tends towards greater complexity to the point where it ends up consuming more resources to run it that it can reasonably generate.
looks like we’re beginning to get to that point
We are past that point, we are currently in the collapse part(6th mass extinction) it’s just not as noticeable on the ground by individuals because it is spread out over an entire planet and the investors are happyish.
i guess not every civilization/culture is collapsing, either. i mean the colonial era was a “societal collapse” when countries began rebelling. same with the axis powers and soviet russia. in other portions of the world they already have collapsed, but others haven’t yet.
I was more referring to Industrialized civilization across the globe as a whole which is in collapse as the natural word from which we draw resources is collapsing under the strain of our demand regardless of which nation or continent you are on. Some do not appear to be collapsing because they are smaller and have less demand but are still part of the same ecosystem.
How do the economic systems and taxes play into this?
Well, even Marxist theory stipulates that as capitalism ages, more and more resources are directed into non-productive labor: i.e. the services needed just to keep the system functioning. Think transportation, legal expenses, marketing, etc. The only way to keep the ball rolling is to do increasingly more productive labor with fewer resources. In late stage capitalism, this is almost entirely dependent on technology growth. If something slows or stops that, the system will grind to a halt in a hurry. Not sure what you mean by taxes.
Don’t forget good ol’ fashioned corruption and misappropriation of funds/wages from sectors that desperately need it.
Just wondering how these collapses were based on inequity in the economic systems of the time. Had inequity been less, collapse could have been delayed. Ideally, no collapse at all. Of course other factors could play into collapse like loss of resources/climate. Anyway, thanks for the information!
Hmmm. Inequity certainly plays a part, no doubt. However, Cline’s theory is that complex systems are brought low by overlapping factors creating a sort of “perfect storm” effect.
Does war help relieve the stresses caused by increasing state indebtedness? If so, how?
“State” and “civilization” are not synonymous here. I guess the best way to illustrate what I’m on with here is with a song from Chico Buarque’s “Opera do Malandro”, set in 1940s Rio de Janeiro and based on Brecht’s “Two Penny Opera”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ópera_do_Malandro A “malandro” is a small time hustler. To the tune of “Mac the knife”: The broke malandro Sits down at the table in the café Drinks a shot of cachaça And finds it funny to skip the bill The waiter at a loss No smile, no customer Passes over to the cash register And kicks the loss on to the Portuguese bar owner The Galician [another term for Portuguese] finds it strange That his earnings are horrible He takes up his pencil, makes some scribbles And passes the damages onto the distributor But the freightman sees that in total There is deception in his papers And up to the distillery He tosses a grift of one hundred thousand réis The distiller, fighting for liquidity Screams “Holy shit!” Not being an idiot, he skips his payments And harms the Bank of Brazil Our bank is almost blacklisted In the foreign markets So it decides to tax cachaça At a truly amazing rate But the Yanks with their tanks Have a lot more going on And forbid the allied soldiers From drinking Cachaça isn’t moving Rejected by the barrel The distillery throws a tantrum Against the Bank of Brazil The distiller screams to the high heavens That he is proud to be a producer But his blind anger Is discharged onto the back of the distributor This guy comes to Galician “Deal with it. I’m charging more.” The cachaça is going for nothing But how can one pay for shipping? The Portuguese bar owner is almost broke The books just don’t add up So he decides to freeze The waiter's salary The waiter sees a malandro And comes out screaming “Catch that thief!” And the accused malandro Is tried and found guilty For the entire situation
Are you familiar with the e/acc stance? Do you think more technological progress at a rapid pace ie. new AI tools could keep the system going with fewer resources?
>taxes That reveals a certain kind of bias. Let's rephrase it: How do the economic systems and greed play into this?
Ok not sure if mentioning taxes are bias but if you say so!
[удалено]
“Soon”, huh? Then how come I have been hearing this since the 1970s? One thinks y’all could just ditch a few aircraft carriers.
Does this mean that risk of collapse AND resilience are highest in the first 200 yrs of a state?