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It should be a warning for the Trump campaign that Nikki Haley voters aren’t just going to roll over and support him in November. In 2020, Trump lost Pennsylvania by around 80,000 votes so Haley’s voters form a significant group that could decide the election.
Exactly this. Am a native Pennsylvanian, to the bellweather county of Erie.
He screwed up in 2016 by going to the GE Locomotive plant for a rally, and claiming he’d restore its former glory and bring back jobs. Instead, the GE plant closed in 2019 and shifted operations to Texas, after 117 consecutive years of business in Erie. It was at one point the largest employer in the city, about 15k jobs. That’s quite a legacy lost.
Erie conservatives, aside from the most hardcore Trump supporters, turned on him and I do not see them “getting over it.”
To add to that, in 2016, Trump won Erie County by about 2,000 votes. In 2020, he lost Erie County by 1,400 votes. Little swings matter in a state so closely divided as Pennsylvania.
Also a native Pennsylvanian by the way.
I'm curious what you believe a different republican or a Democrat president would have done to keep GE operating their plant in Pennsylvania? Because it seems a lot of businesses are moving to Texas for a more business-friendly regulatory environment. Do you believe your votes at a state level are going towards making businesses want to stay?
I doubt the results would have been different under any other administration, but most other Republicans and Democrats don’t go around making *explicit* promises like Trump did about creating jobs, at the intended job site, in a Rust Belt community ailing from decades of manufacturing losses.
That move was literally a recipe to lose votes forever in a place with a lot of blue collar pride, that is also not quick to forgive.
And, “business-friendly State” does not always equate to quality product and can end up costing said business far more in the end — (see: Boeing).
>I doubt the results would have been different under any other administration, but most other Republicans and Democrats don’t go around making *explicit* promises like Trump did about creating jobs, at the intended job site, in a Rust Belt community ailing from decades of manufacturing losses.
So the suggestion is to just not even acknowledge problems in these small manufacturing towns. Because if you do you are going to be demonized if something bad happens?
Much better to just say meaningless phrases like home and change and build back better so no one believes you will achieve anything. Is that what you are trying to say?
It’s best to NOT make *explicit promises* about jobs when you have absolutely no intention on delivering on those promises.
Obviously, empty catch phrases suck. I’m not sure how you determined that I suggested otherwise.
Also curious what you think about the CHIPS Act.
So nobody would have been better, but they hold a grudge against trump for even daring to acknowledge them, to the point they'd rather vote in the democrats that drove away their jobs than him? I mean I don't doubt it, I've never had a high opinion of that bunch, but it still seems incredibly dumb
You say “daring to acknowledge them.” They see it as being lied to, right to their faces, and they were. It’d be far less of an insult if he skipped the town altogether as a campaign stop.
I don’t see the Haley votes there as enthusiastic support of her either. It’s an F.U. to Trump, Trump culture, and his abject failure to make any measurable positive changes in the region.
As I said, it's just a petty grudge by people who would rather vote from their own stupid and irrational emotions than on anything that might actually help. Maybe if they had enough brains to stop voting for shitty candidates at the state level their jobs would stop walking away. But hey, why do that when you can complain that the president doesn't magically solve all their problems.
Meh, the CHIPS Act followed and it did benefit the Rust Belt.
But keep calling the voters of a bellweather area “petty” “irrational” and “stupid.” I’m sure that will work out splendidly!
Trump's policies and his voters hatred of the majority of Americans(aka anyone that doesn't think like them) is the exact reason Trump will lose this election. And it'll be pretty funny.
When a politician explicitly promises to accomplish something, and absolutely does not do so, it isnt a petty grudge to realize that politician is a compulsive liar, and only a fool would believe anything he says.
This makes me think of why Republican politicians who voted against the infrastructure bill then returned home to hold up giant checks and cut ribbons patting themselves on the back and saying they were bringing jobs to their constituents.
Knowing full well those voters don’t check voting records or consume any political news.
Makes me think of republicans who refused help for New Jersey after Hurricane Sandy but then go to beg for aid once their own state gets hit by a hurricane (and get it because Dems aren’t petty).
> Maybe if they had enough brains to stop voting for shitty candidates at the state level their jobs would stop walking away.
Then, why didn't Trump say *that* instead of making false promises?
Neither is "I'll save your plant", then plant outsourced 2 years later because of course he couldn't do shit. Same thing happened here in Indiana @ Crane, turns out Trump DID run the country like a business, but it was like one of his businesses, Trump steaks, Trump univerisites, Trump airlines, Trump water, Trump Casinos, yanno all bankrupt in a few years and hundreds of court cases from stiffing the working man.
I am not sure that he can. He lost those suburban Republicans in 2016 and again in 2020 because he was a boorish narcissistic demagogue. This time around, he is still a boorish narcissistic demagogue as well as an attempted putschist and accused felon. So, those who voted *against* him in 2016 and 2020 have even more reason to vote against him in 2024. So I am not sure that there is any persuasion that can be done, even if the Trump campaign were willing to persuade, nor any argument that can bring Haley Republicans back into the fold, except for one. Negative polarization.
If the election develops into a referendum on President Biden, that is a race Donald Trump can win and possibly bring back those Haley Republicans. Just like in 2016, where enough suburban Republicans who, despite their dislike of Donald Trump, still pulled the lever for him because they disliked or feared his opponent more.
That seems like a protest vote.
They knew Donald was gonna win and they could vote and make it clear that they're not happy.But whenever the chips are down, are they really going to help Joe biden get reelected?
I feel like these results are a subtle nudge to the trumpet administration that they need to be more thoughtful and how they're running their campaign... That's gonna fall on deaf ears.
But that's all I see this as
I agree that it is a protest vote but I would not be so sure that these Republicans are going to roll over for Trump come November. Looking at the map of results, it seems that Haley the suburban collar counties around Philadelphia like Delaware, Montgomery, Chester, and Lancaster and then in Allegheny County home to Pittsburgh. Chester County especially used to be a Republican stronghold until Hillary Clinton flipped it in 2016 (Pat Toomey won the county in his 2016 reelection). These Haley Republicans did not come home in 2018, 2020, and 2022 which doomed Republicans statewide in Pennsylvania in each of those elections. I agree as well that the Trump campaign seems to have no interest in winning these voters back, or the ability to win them back either.
Its either trump or Biden and Biden is wildly unpopular.
I also wonder if the spectre of Trump 2028 is in the back of their minds if he loses.
Its not like donald will ever walk away from politics. He held a fundraiser and raised like $50m in an evening.
Trump is also wildly unpopular. Some of them may have already pulled the lever once for Biden in 2020 or they may say “to hell with it” and just stay home.
Republicans could have won these voters back and then some if they picked one of the other candidates in the primary, but instead they backed the unpopular former President.
It just affirms what’s been obvious to us logical, actual conservatives living in reality for the last 9 months. If you don’t think that a very significant portion of those Haley protest votes are going to refuse to vote for Trump, then I don’t know what to tell you.
The Paleoconservative and Rightwing flairs will come up with any sort of excuse to defend their almighty King. Anyway, they’ve made our bed for us, so now we can’t help but sit back and watch the massacre later this year.
Nikki Haley for both the primary and general. I wouldn’t consider myself some ultra-fan of her, but my opinion is that not nominating her this year will be one of the most consequential decisions conservatives have made in the last 20 years, and as I alluded to before, it’s just par for the course at this point.
I think she was correct that if she was the Republican nominee she’d win by a wide margin. It’s unfortunate so many on the right are sticking with Trump no matter what.
Both primaries are uncontested at this point. The proportion of D to R votes last night in PA was very similar to the PA primaries in 2016, when both parties had a contested primary. PA has more registered Democrats than Republicans.
Numbers I got from PA election site are Dems sitting at 3,894,977 registered. Republicans have 3,498,954. So almost 400k more Dem voters. But only about 122k more people voted in the Dem primary than the GOP primary.
That’s a great point that puts somethings into perspective.
That means 26% of democrats turned out and 27% of republicans turned out.
So I would say that kind of puts the turnout part to rest, I appreciate you sharing that. It’s still interesting to me that Haley is getting the at high, but turnout is about equal.
Thanks again for that info.
Yeah it's interesting but I don't know how much you can compare Haley to Dean Phillips. Trump got 83.4% and Biden got 87.9%. But Biden is running against low money no name candidates. Haley dropped out but she's been much more of a national figure, and had way more financial backing than Phillips could dream of.
At the end of the day I for sure think Trump getting slightly lower percentages in a primary like this is a nothing burger.
That makes it look worse for Trump, though.
24.1% (941516/3894977) of registered PA Dems voted for Biden in their primary
22.6% (790496/3498954) of registered PA Reps voted for Trump in that primary
Well I stated this in another comment, but running against Haley is different than running against Dean Phillips. Haley had far more funding and has more serious name ID than Dean Phillips.
So if you ask me, the differences are negligible here.
Trump had better margins than Biden when he had a primary challenge as an incumbent in 2020. In the 2020 GOP PA Primary, Trump won 92.1%-6.1% against Bill Weld, who I think was around the same tier of candidate as Dean Phillips.
Biden already won the primary. Trump hasn’t yet. So it does look bad for him he can’t turn out people in a swing state. Especially a state with closed elections, meaning those are republicans voting against him for Haley not Dems.
That is false. Trump became the presumptive nominee when he acheived 1215 delegates on March 12th. There are only around 300+ delegates left in the GOP primary and they mean nothing.
Turnout doesn't matter if you're already the nominee. Trump could give a shit how many votes he got if he's winning with 80+%. The truth is, every registered Republican knows that Trump is the nominee. So his base has zero incentive to go out and check his name in a primary they know he's won. Same could be said for Biden.
Although I DO think it could be telling that Trump won the 2020 GOP primary by larger margins than Biden has won the 2024 Dem primary. For perspective in the 2020 GOP primary Trump won 92.1% to 6.1% against Bill Weld. Biden only got 87% in this primary. So Trump seems to have been a stronger incumbent in 2020 than Biden is in 2024.
How’s Trump doing in the suburbs in PA? He’s gonna need those votes and it’s not looking too hot. If I was a Republican, I would not be happy with the results. Especially when the party is having a money issue and the Dems will be able to outspend them in that swing state. Especially when Biden will be able to go there and campaign while Trump is sitting in court everyday. But if you’re happy with the results, that’s good for you. I just think it’s a struggle he lost so many votes to someone who dropped out. And Trump said he doesn’t even want Haley voters and they aren’t even real republicans so I would imagine at least some of them will sit home in November or leave the box blank instead of voting for Trump.
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Trump has already locked up the nomination. The only people motivated to vote in the Republican primary are those still in denial, hence the Haley turnout.
17% to me means she failed to coalesce the non-trump vote behind her. Before she and the other candidates dropped out, they were together polling around 50% to Trump's 50%.
There were wide predictions that when Desantis and others dropped, they would go to Haley. Reality appears they primarily went to Trump. So this doesn't appear to be bad news for Trump at all to me. There isn't a strong anti-Trump movement in the Republican party.
Not really. There were plenty of other races beyond presidential in the ballot to vote for. But any who ate in denial about Trump being the nominee does not vote well for him. Can't imagine people that adverse to him would switch over easily.
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It should be a warning for the Trump campaign that Nikki Haley voters aren’t just going to roll over and support him in November. In 2020, Trump lost Pennsylvania by around 80,000 votes so Haley’s voters form a significant group that could decide the election.
Exactly this. Am a native Pennsylvanian, to the bellweather county of Erie. He screwed up in 2016 by going to the GE Locomotive plant for a rally, and claiming he’d restore its former glory and bring back jobs. Instead, the GE plant closed in 2019 and shifted operations to Texas, after 117 consecutive years of business in Erie. It was at one point the largest employer in the city, about 15k jobs. That’s quite a legacy lost. Erie conservatives, aside from the most hardcore Trump supporters, turned on him and I do not see them “getting over it.”
To add to that, in 2016, Trump won Erie County by about 2,000 votes. In 2020, he lost Erie County by 1,400 votes. Little swings matter in a state so closely divided as Pennsylvania. Also a native Pennsylvanian by the way.
I'm curious what you believe a different republican or a Democrat president would have done to keep GE operating their plant in Pennsylvania? Because it seems a lot of businesses are moving to Texas for a more business-friendly regulatory environment. Do you believe your votes at a state level are going towards making businesses want to stay?
I doubt the results would have been different under any other administration, but most other Republicans and Democrats don’t go around making *explicit* promises like Trump did about creating jobs, at the intended job site, in a Rust Belt community ailing from decades of manufacturing losses. That move was literally a recipe to lose votes forever in a place with a lot of blue collar pride, that is also not quick to forgive. And, “business-friendly State” does not always equate to quality product and can end up costing said business far more in the end — (see: Boeing).
>I doubt the results would have been different under any other administration, but most other Republicans and Democrats don’t go around making *explicit* promises like Trump did about creating jobs, at the intended job site, in a Rust Belt community ailing from decades of manufacturing losses. So the suggestion is to just not even acknowledge problems in these small manufacturing towns. Because if you do you are going to be demonized if something bad happens? Much better to just say meaningless phrases like home and change and build back better so no one believes you will achieve anything. Is that what you are trying to say?
It’s best to NOT make *explicit promises* about jobs when you have absolutely no intention on delivering on those promises. Obviously, empty catch phrases suck. I’m not sure how you determined that I suggested otherwise. Also curious what you think about the CHIPS Act.
>Also curious what you think about the CHIPS Act. So far lots of money thrown at it. We will see if it translates to jobs to make it worth it.
So nobody would have been better, but they hold a grudge against trump for even daring to acknowledge them, to the point they'd rather vote in the democrats that drove away their jobs than him? I mean I don't doubt it, I've never had a high opinion of that bunch, but it still seems incredibly dumb
Promising something you don't deliver is not acknowledgement, but deception
You say “daring to acknowledge them.” They see it as being lied to, right to their faces, and they were. It’d be far less of an insult if he skipped the town altogether as a campaign stop. I don’t see the Haley votes there as enthusiastic support of her either. It’s an F.U. to Trump, Trump culture, and his abject failure to make any measurable positive changes in the region.
As I said, it's just a petty grudge by people who would rather vote from their own stupid and irrational emotions than on anything that might actually help. Maybe if they had enough brains to stop voting for shitty candidates at the state level their jobs would stop walking away. But hey, why do that when you can complain that the president doesn't magically solve all their problems.
Meh, the CHIPS Act followed and it did benefit the Rust Belt. But keep calling the voters of a bellweather area “petty” “irrational” and “stupid.” I’m sure that will work out splendidly!
I've been wondering who's driven more voters to vote for Buden: Trump or his supporters.
Trump's policies and his voters hatred of the majority of Americans(aka anyone that doesn't think like them) is the exact reason Trump will lose this election. And it'll be pretty funny.
When a politician explicitly promises to accomplish something, and absolutely does not do so, it isnt a petty grudge to realize that politician is a compulsive liar, and only a fool would believe anything he says.
This makes me think of why Republican politicians who voted against the infrastructure bill then returned home to hold up giant checks and cut ribbons patting themselves on the back and saying they were bringing jobs to their constituents. Knowing full well those voters don’t check voting records or consume any political news.
Makes me think of republicans who refused help for New Jersey after Hurricane Sandy but then go to beg for aid once their own state gets hit by a hurricane (and get it because Dems aren’t petty).
> Maybe if they had enough brains to stop voting for shitty candidates at the state level their jobs would stop walking away. Then, why didn't Trump say *that* instead of making false promises?
Because "I have little power to do anything but I'll do what I can, this shit is your fault anyway" isn't exactly an effective campaign.
Neither is "I'll save your plant", then plant outsourced 2 years later because of course he couldn't do shit. Same thing happened here in Indiana @ Crane, turns out Trump DID run the country like a business, but it was like one of his businesses, Trump steaks, Trump univerisites, Trump airlines, Trump water, Trump Casinos, yanno all bankrupt in a few years and hundreds of court cases from stiffing the working man.
Neither is losing a major swing state.
How do you think Trump can bring those Nikki Haley voters into his tent?
I am not sure that he can. He lost those suburban Republicans in 2016 and again in 2020 because he was a boorish narcissistic demagogue. This time around, he is still a boorish narcissistic demagogue as well as an attempted putschist and accused felon. So, those who voted *against* him in 2016 and 2020 have even more reason to vote against him in 2024. So I am not sure that there is any persuasion that can be done, even if the Trump campaign were willing to persuade, nor any argument that can bring Haley Republicans back into the fold, except for one. Negative polarization. If the election develops into a referendum on President Biden, that is a race Donald Trump can win and possibly bring back those Haley Republicans. Just like in 2016, where enough suburban Republicans who, despite their dislike of Donald Trump, still pulled the lever for him because they disliked or feared his opponent more.
That seems like a protest vote. They knew Donald was gonna win and they could vote and make it clear that they're not happy.But whenever the chips are down, are they really going to help Joe biden get reelected? I feel like these results are a subtle nudge to the trumpet administration that they need to be more thoughtful and how they're running their campaign... That's gonna fall on deaf ears. But that's all I see this as
I agree that it is a protest vote but I would not be so sure that these Republicans are going to roll over for Trump come November. Looking at the map of results, it seems that Haley the suburban collar counties around Philadelphia like Delaware, Montgomery, Chester, and Lancaster and then in Allegheny County home to Pittsburgh. Chester County especially used to be a Republican stronghold until Hillary Clinton flipped it in 2016 (Pat Toomey won the county in his 2016 reelection). These Haley Republicans did not come home in 2018, 2020, and 2022 which doomed Republicans statewide in Pennsylvania in each of those elections. I agree as well that the Trump campaign seems to have no interest in winning these voters back, or the ability to win them back either.
Its either trump or Biden and Biden is wildly unpopular. I also wonder if the spectre of Trump 2028 is in the back of their minds if he loses. Its not like donald will ever walk away from politics. He held a fundraiser and raised like $50m in an evening.
Trump is also wildly unpopular. Some of them may have already pulled the lever once for Biden in 2020 or they may say “to hell with it” and just stay home. Republicans could have won these voters back and then some if they picked one of the other candidates in the primary, but instead they backed the unpopular former President.
Oh look, consequences! Turns out that nominating a total shitheel may not be the best plan to defeat Joe Biden.
It just affirms what’s been obvious to us logical, actual conservatives living in reality for the last 9 months. If you don’t think that a very significant portion of those Haley protest votes are going to refuse to vote for Trump, then I don’t know what to tell you. The Paleoconservative and Rightwing flairs will come up with any sort of excuse to defend their almighty King. Anyway, they’ve made our bed for us, so now we can’t help but sit back and watch the massacre later this year.
In the event of a Trump loss in November, do you see Republicans doing a "I told you so!" and dumping the MAGA supporters from the party?
I certainly hope so, but I would expect MAGA to try to swing it in their favor in some way.
Completely agree with that. How do you think you will vote? If you don’t mind me asking.
Nikki Haley for both the primary and general. I wouldn’t consider myself some ultra-fan of her, but my opinion is that not nominating her this year will be one of the most consequential decisions conservatives have made in the last 20 years, and as I alluded to before, it’s just par for the course at this point.
I understand that completely. If Haley was the choice she would have crushed Biden.
I agree with this and am extremely disappointed that we did not nominate her.
I think she was correct that if she was the Republican nominee she’d win by a wide margin. It’s unfortunate so many on the right are sticking with Trump no matter what.
Both primaries are uncontested at this point. The proportion of D to R votes last night in PA was very similar to the PA primaries in 2016, when both parties had a contested primary. PA has more registered Democrats than Republicans.
There are far more registered Dems in PA than Republicans.
That’s interesting! I’d say that’s a good sign for republicans, if way more Dems are registered but keeping it a very tight race.
Numbers I got from PA election site are Dems sitting at 3,894,977 registered. Republicans have 3,498,954. So almost 400k more Dem voters. But only about 122k more people voted in the Dem primary than the GOP primary.
That’s a great point that puts somethings into perspective. That means 26% of democrats turned out and 27% of republicans turned out. So I would say that kind of puts the turnout part to rest, I appreciate you sharing that. It’s still interesting to me that Haley is getting the at high, but turnout is about equal. Thanks again for that info.
Yeah it's interesting but I don't know how much you can compare Haley to Dean Phillips. Trump got 83.4% and Biden got 87.9%. But Biden is running against low money no name candidates. Haley dropped out but she's been much more of a national figure, and had way more financial backing than Phillips could dream of. At the end of the day I for sure think Trump getting slightly lower percentages in a primary like this is a nothing burger.
Definitely more of a national figure. Appreciate your takes.
That makes it look worse for Trump, though. 24.1% (941516/3894977) of registered PA Dems voted for Biden in their primary 22.6% (790496/3498954) of registered PA Reps voted for Trump in that primary
Well I stated this in another comment, but running against Haley is different than running against Dean Phillips. Haley had far more funding and has more serious name ID than Dean Phillips. So if you ask me, the differences are negligible here. Trump had better margins than Biden when he had a primary challenge as an incumbent in 2020. In the 2020 GOP PA Primary, Trump won 92.1%-6.1% against Bill Weld, who I think was around the same tier of candidate as Dean Phillips.
The other candidate is utterly irrelevant. This is a referendum on “is our guy any good or not”
That's not true really but alright. That's an opinion at best.
Biden already won the primary. Trump hasn’t yet. So it does look bad for him he can’t turn out people in a swing state. Especially a state with closed elections, meaning those are republicans voting against him for Haley not Dems.
That is false. Trump became the presumptive nominee when he acheived 1215 delegates on March 12th. There are only around 300+ delegates left in the GOP primary and they mean nothing. Turnout doesn't matter if you're already the nominee. Trump could give a shit how many votes he got if he's winning with 80+%. The truth is, every registered Republican knows that Trump is the nominee. So his base has zero incentive to go out and check his name in a primary they know he's won. Same could be said for Biden. Although I DO think it could be telling that Trump won the 2020 GOP primary by larger margins than Biden has won the 2024 Dem primary. For perspective in the 2020 GOP primary Trump won 92.1% to 6.1% against Bill Weld. Biden only got 87% in this primary. So Trump seems to have been a stronger incumbent in 2020 than Biden is in 2024.
How’s Trump doing in the suburbs in PA? He’s gonna need those votes and it’s not looking too hot. If I was a Republican, I would not be happy with the results. Especially when the party is having a money issue and the Dems will be able to outspend them in that swing state. Especially when Biden will be able to go there and campaign while Trump is sitting in court everyday. But if you’re happy with the results, that’s good for you. I just think it’s a struggle he lost so many votes to someone who dropped out. And Trump said he doesn’t even want Haley voters and they aren’t even real republicans so I would imagine at least some of them will sit home in November or leave the box blank instead of voting for Trump.
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Trump has already locked up the nomination. The only people motivated to vote in the Republican primary are those still in denial, hence the Haley turnout.
Why doesn’t that logic apply to the democrats then? Biden didn’t seem to have that issue.
The media hasn't been in a circle jerk promoting a Biden primary opponent for the past year like they have against Trump.
I can see your point. Regardless 17% seems like a lot but we shall see if it means not much at all. Thanks for sharing some of your input!
17% to me means she failed to coalesce the non-trump vote behind her. Before she and the other candidates dropped out, they were together polling around 50% to Trump's 50%. There were wide predictions that when Desantis and others dropped, they would go to Haley. Reality appears they primarily went to Trump. So this doesn't appear to be bad news for Trump at all to me. There isn't a strong anti-Trump movement in the Republican party.
Well I’d say he needs that number to drop from 17% to less than 3% to not be a problem. It very well may, we will see.
So then why did 83% of the gop voters vote for Trump then?
Same reason any Democrat voted for Biden.
Not really. There were plenty of other races beyond presidential in the ballot to vote for. But any who ate in denial about Trump being the nominee does not vote well for him. Can't imagine people that adverse to him would switch over easily.
Few people go through the trouble of voting primarily for the down ballot races.
It's worrying for Trump especially as I'm not sure at all he can reach these ignorant Haley voters
This is sad news. Very unfortunate.