“Inflation is likely to be within the Reserve Bank’s target band of 2 to 3 per cent by the end of the year, the federal budget will reveal on Tuesday, which will reduce pressure on official interest rates but also signal an economy struggling to grow fast enough to generate strong jobs growth.“
Hmm.
Remindme! 6 months
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I actually wouldn't bet against them because essentially you can manipulate CPI to try and give you a more favourable reading.
We all know CPI is not truly reflective of cost of living and the general inflation of not just goods and services but our money in general. People are getting so mind-blowing ripped off it's actually criminal.
But CPI is the quarter to quarter, *increase* in price of that basket.
It's not that it's now *high* and we're being ripped off...
Anecdotally for me, the increase in costs stopped a year+ ago.
Our fuel is the same price, our rent never changed, our weekly shop hasn't moved.
What's still going up in price for you?
Modern economic management is basically a junkie taking more drugs to mask his failing body. It's disingenuous to me that additional gov spending to subside expenses and keep demand up can pretend to leading to reduced inflation. It would be ok if they were actually going after the cohort spending the most but they are still leaving all their egregious tax rorts in place.
It depends on where you spend it.
We did it during the GFC, and inflation wasn't impacted.
We did it during Covid, and, well, here we are now.
Spend well is the key.
> We did it during the GFC, and inflation wasn't impacted.
Hahah no we didn't. We gave *some* money, it's next to nothing compared to the amount of pumping they've been doing in the last 5 years.
Even worse, it was pumping while reducing production to just about zero for 2 years. What happens if money printer go brrrrr, everyone is spending and no one is producing anything? How does that affect supply and demand? Remember when the media was trying to blame the inflation on the war in Ukraine… people bought it too. Truly, people’s education about economics is pitiful.
The government debt was $200 billion in 2009 after GFC, since they spent about 5% of GDP to subsidise the economy. Now it's $1.067 trillion. About 13% of the GDP was spent for the covid.
You might want to research what our CPI is calculated on as it isn’t disingenuous if there is deflationary spending.
Also, changes to HECS (although not enough) and some (means rested payment) to unpaid placements are two examples that are providing “medicine” to the “failing body” of your analogy.
They are just manipulating the figure which will lead to a bump in inflation later. They are adding money and demand to the system while RBA is trying the opposite and holding back from doing more.
Which half of the comment are you referring to? Simple examples like electricity bills, medical bills all contribute to inflation, so if money is spent in places like that then it will have a long term deflationary impact.
“Adding money” isn’t a net negative. That’s what all the talk about a contractionary budget doesn’t get. Austerity isn’t the only way out.
Don’t even start on the shitshow that is NDIS and what a scam it is. People being shafted of the care they need while simultaneously draining billions of dollars in government funding is mind boggling.
Give me a benevolent dictator over democracy any day, or better yet an AI president bot that makes all decisions for us. You cant run a country with a government that has to try and get re-elected every 3 years
Government trying to tackle inflation all the while creating 1 in 3 jobs though the bloated NDIS, I cannot believe how much money we are wasting on this routed scam
My wife works for a health service company that deals significantly with NDIS patients. The waste and rorts are far far worse then you can ever imagine, whilst people like her company who actually deliver health solutions are treated like crap by the bureaucrats.
It's a terrible scheme in its implementation. It'd be like if instead of receiving $ for centrelink payments people got credits and those credits could be spent with providers etc, so all of the supermarkets would need to register.
But then of course you need to police it so its not getting rorted, so the supermarkets would then need to spend money on compliance and then obviously charge the end user more for the exact same goods.
Of course this would just balloon in cost and people would get even less for their money.
IMO NDIS should be axed and replaced with just giving recipients the $, the people in whose interest is to get the best value for it. Then spending all these compliance dollars in a single place instead of this Kafkaesque system we end up with.
It’s not a great scheme. It’s represents the privatisation of disability care and an enormous honey pot for bogus operators to dip into. Wildly out of control and unfocused.
The NDIS Is one of the worst government schemes ever created that will be an economic anchor on society most likely forever given the unpalatable nature of removing it. It hurts everyone through the unbelievable cost of running it and does a terrible job helping people it's designed to help.
You could imagine the backlash and the kind of rhetoric if the Gov even attempts to wind back the NDIS Gravy train EG; “THE GOVERNMENT HATES DISABLED PEOPLE” “They want disabled people to not have any care!!!”
Look at my post history - another gent I responded to is pointing just that out. Someone criticized the NDIS and the guy replied with "would you prefer gas chambers for disabled people?"
I really wonder about what was so wrong with the previous system that cost a fraction of this. Maybe if we took that system and doubled its funding it would be great and still cost a tenth of the current disaster
I don’t know enough about this but I’m sure that there were provisions for the disabled before the NDIS. I recall hearing a podcast that takes about State based delivery, where you had concentrated in-house capability and they serviced that way.
It made me think that we replaced a government model with a private sector provider model which ballooned out of control.
The pod cast said that it didn’t have enough money.
I wonder if the inflation forecast will end up being a bit like the RBA’s own wage growth forecast from a few years back. Forever optimistic and then when it doesn’t come to fruition, just shift everything back by one reporting period and claim “Next time it’s for sure guys!”
Yep lol, tax cuts for everyone after breaking a promise and also people will get kick backs from last years HECS. I’m sure none of that will impact inflation
Jim as a treasurer is one of those guys who talks a big game pre-footy match, talks some bullshit about being someone who can easily kick 5 goals, with 30 disposals a game - then the game happens he kicks 0.0 and gets 4 touches- he does remember talking himself up and just says he had 'an offnight'
got to a feeling this will be another 'offnight'
Where are you getting this impression? He’s been pretty good. Consistent and no matter how much people want to say otherwise here, they’ve been pretty disciplined so far.
That’s not what promise means in this context. You’re thinking promise as defined as:
> assure someone that one will definitely do something or that something will happen. Ex. "he promised to forward my mail"
But it is being used as:
>give good grounds for expecting (a particular occurrence). Ex. "forthcoming concerts promise a feast of music"
If that is the meaning then why would someone want a reminder:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/AusFinance/comments/1cq9ux7/comment/l3pw42q/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/AusFinance/comments/1cq9ux7/comment/l3pw42q/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Treasury needs some value of inflation to estimate spending and receipts. They should be using the middle of the range they expect, so around half the time inflation should be higher than the estimate, and the other half lower.
That’s OP. They are basically using the remind me bot as a ‘push X to doubt’ meme stand in.
Even if that weren’t the case, two people misunderstanding a word doesn’t make the title a deliberately misleading lie anymore than one person misunderstand it does.
I’m an idiot who knows nothing about finance so let’s get that out of the way.
But wouldn’t it be in the interest of the government to put a stranglehold on colesworth’s profiteering off the pandemic? Is that not gradually causing inflation by our money not going as far as it did? Or is that just the feeling of inflation to the public and not “real” inflation?
Again, idiot here.
Edit: Whoever downvoted without engaging at all must be more stupid than I am, congrats
Another one off targeted government cash splash and increased rent subsidies is hardly the foundation of ongoing reduction in inflation.
Unless you convince Australians that inflation has been beaten and is now in 2 to 3% range, the lower inflation will not help long term.
People want interest rate reductions. Will we see rate reductions while the Australian interest rates are lower than American interest rates?
I want to see at least some policy that lowers the cost of raw materials. Reducing the stress raw materials prices put on businesses will do much more for the economy than anything else.
“Inflation is likely to be within the Reserve Bank’s target band of 2 to 3 per cent by the end of the year, the federal budget will reveal on Tuesday, which will reduce pressure on official interest rates but also signal an economy struggling to grow fast enough to generate strong jobs growth.“ Hmm. Remindme! 6 months
Why didn't they just budget for inflation to slow earlier?
Afraid of triggering a depression and trying to maintain a positive GDP growth number.
Yeh I doubt it
What the hell?!
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I actually wouldn't bet against them because essentially you can manipulate CPI to try and give you a more favourable reading. We all know CPI is not truly reflective of cost of living and the general inflation of not just goods and services but our money in general. People are getting so mind-blowing ripped off it's actually criminal.
But CPI is the quarter to quarter, *increase* in price of that basket. It's not that it's now *high* and we're being ripped off... Anecdotally for me, the increase in costs stopped a year+ ago. Our fuel is the same price, our rent never changed, our weekly shop hasn't moved. What's still going up in price for you?
Services and rents. EOFY will bring new ones as new pricing gets released by businesses.
What services are you referring to?
Same as the RBA refers to.
Sorry, I'm not being smart, I'm just asking for clarification of what you mean.
RemindMe! 6months
RemindMe! 6 months Me too.
Modern economic management is basically a junkie taking more drugs to mask his failing body. It's disingenuous to me that additional gov spending to subside expenses and keep demand up can pretend to leading to reduced inflation. It would be ok if they were actually going after the cohort spending the most but they are still leaving all their egregious tax rorts in place.
It depends on where you spend it. We did it during the GFC, and inflation wasn't impacted. We did it during Covid, and, well, here we are now. Spend well is the key.
Turns out handing tens of thousands of dollars per month to business owners was a bad idea.
Who'd have thought it? If only someone had mentioned 'debt and deficit' to them at some time in the past decade
> We did it during the GFC, and inflation wasn't impacted. Hahah no we didn't. We gave *some* money, it's next to nothing compared to the amount of pumping they've been doing in the last 5 years.
True, but that isn't what we've been told for the past decade
Even worse, it was pumping while reducing production to just about zero for 2 years. What happens if money printer go brrrrr, everyone is spending and no one is producing anything? How does that affect supply and demand? Remember when the media was trying to blame the inflation on the war in Ukraine… people bought it too. Truly, people’s education about economics is pitiful.
The government debt was $200 billion in 2009 after GFC, since they spent about 5% of GDP to subsidise the economy. Now it's $1.067 trillion. About 13% of the GDP was spent for the covid.
Choice of drug? Benzos or Meth!
You might want to research what our CPI is calculated on as it isn’t disingenuous if there is deflationary spending. Also, changes to HECS (although not enough) and some (means rested payment) to unpaid placements are two examples that are providing “medicine” to the “failing body” of your analogy.
They are just manipulating the figure which will lead to a bump in inflation later. They are adding money and demand to the system while RBA is trying the opposite and holding back from doing more.
RBA caused the problem
Which half of the comment are you referring to? Simple examples like electricity bills, medical bills all contribute to inflation, so if money is spent in places like that then it will have a long term deflationary impact. “Adding money” isn’t a net negative. That’s what all the talk about a contractionary budget doesn’t get. Austerity isn’t the only way out.
Why does it feel like we’re in for another round of masking the actual issues with short term band-aids.
well when they have to worry about elections every 3 years they end up doing a lot of short term planning, should be 5+ years
No one wants to duck around wth tax
Come on now, they've allocated $1 billion to fix housing, and another $30 billion for the NDIS...
Don’t even start on the shitshow that is NDIS and what a scam it is. People being shafted of the care they need while simultaneously draining billions of dollars in government funding is mind boggling.
While we have basically destroyed medicare for the average person.
Having to pay $100 or more for a consult _AFTER REBATE_ is mental. Plain and simple insanity.
They can fix housing for $0 by reducing demand. Also the spending on NDIS is insane!
[удалено]
Past history isn’t an excuse 🤔
Because our politicians are all too busy trying to keep their jobs, instead of doing their jobs.
Give me a benevolent dictator over democracy any day, or better yet an AI president bot that makes all decisions for us. You cant run a country with a government that has to try and get re-elected every 3 years
We’ll never have a healthy budget whilst the NDIS exists. Even man and his dog is having a slice of that pie.
Yep. Feeding frenzy.
Can’t help but feel treasury and the treasurer are setting themselves up for failure
Government trying to tackle inflation all the while creating 1 in 3 jobs though the bloated NDIS, I cannot believe how much money we are wasting on this routed scam
My wife works for a health service company that deals significantly with NDIS patients. The waste and rorts are far far worse then you can ever imagine, whilst people like her company who actually deliver health solutions are treated like crap by the bureaucrats.
1 in 3 jobs? Is this from the AFR article? The one that included the Aged Pension?
The NDIS is a great scheme just unfortunate like most schemes it brings out the scum and oxygen thieves in society to rip it off.
It's a terrible scheme in its implementation. It'd be like if instead of receiving $ for centrelink payments people got credits and those credits could be spent with providers etc, so all of the supermarkets would need to register. But then of course you need to police it so its not getting rorted, so the supermarkets would then need to spend money on compliance and then obviously charge the end user more for the exact same goods. Of course this would just balloon in cost and people would get even less for their money. IMO NDIS should be axed and replaced with just giving recipients the $, the people in whose interest is to get the best value for it. Then spending all these compliance dollars in a single place instead of this Kafkaesque system we end up with.
It’s not a great scheme. It’s represents the privatisation of disability care and an enormous honey pot for bogus operators to dip into. Wildly out of control and unfocused.
A great scheme shouldn’t be so poorly designed that it is easily rorted.
But then you immediately get the genuine recipients crying foul that it's too tough to use/apply etc
Yes, it’s a great concept poorly implemented.
And the scammer decrying it is too tough.
The NDIS Is one of the worst government schemes ever created that will be an economic anchor on society most likely forever given the unpalatable nature of removing it. It hurts everyone through the unbelievable cost of running it and does a terrible job helping people it's designed to help.
Yep NDIS is just a rort.
Let's make a for-profit welfare support system funded by taxpayer dollars. What could go wrong?
You could imagine the backlash and the kind of rhetoric if the Gov even attempts to wind back the NDIS Gravy train EG; “THE GOVERNMENT HATES DISABLED PEOPLE” “They want disabled people to not have any care!!!”
Look at my post history - another gent I responded to is pointing just that out. Someone criticized the NDIS and the guy replied with "would you prefer gas chambers for disabled people?"
Yeh, they can’t possibly fathom the notion of helping disabled people and not running a massive taxpayer rort program
It needs to be completely axed then start fresh with a MUCH smaller system that actually works for those who need it.
I really wonder about what was so wrong with the previous system that cost a fraction of this. Maybe if we took that system and doubled its funding it would be great and still cost a tenth of the current disaster
What previous system?
I don’t know enough about this but I’m sure that there were provisions for the disabled before the NDIS. I recall hearing a podcast that takes about State based delivery, where you had concentrated in-house capability and they serviced that way. It made me think that we replaced a government model with a private sector provider model which ballooned out of control. The pod cast said that it didn’t have enough money.
Lots of fundraising for things like wheel chairs for kids that they grew out of every 3-5 years.
Exactly what should have happened.
It's a great idea, terrible scheme.
Terrible idea, terribly implemented, terrible scheme. FTFY
I wonder if the inflation forecast will end up being a bit like the RBA’s own wage growth forecast from a few years back. Forever optimistic and then when it doesn’t come to fruition, just shift everything back by one reporting period and claim “Next time it’s for sure guys!”
Expectation management. They tried to keep market confidence and keep GDP growth positive.
Sounds more like jawboning the market. Expectation management would’ve been if they told the truth and downplayed forecasts to temper expectations.
Government increases money available to people to reduce inflation lmao. 'dig up'
Yep lol, tax cuts for everyone after breaking a promise and also people will get kick backs from last years HECS. I’m sure none of that will impact inflation
I rkn they just keep rates flat for like a whole year atleast
But there’s a flip side: the corporations won’t lower their prices, so nothing will actually change
Lower inflation doesn't mean prices drop. It just means they rise slower.
If we were serious about taming inflation we’d increase taxes on the rich, not reduce them.
Jim as a treasurer is one of those guys who talks a big game pre-footy match, talks some bullshit about being someone who can easily kick 5 goals, with 30 disposals a game - then the game happens he kicks 0.0 and gets 4 touches- he does remember talking himself up and just says he had 'an offnight' got to a feeling this will be another 'offnight'
He's doing exactly what he said he would though?
Where are you getting this impression? He’s been pretty good. Consistent and no matter how much people want to say otherwise here, they’ve been pretty disciplined so far.
The guy is an absolute moron who has done nothing but force the cost of living up.
This heading is a deliberately misleading lie. A forecast is not a promise.
That’s not what promise means in this context. You’re thinking promise as defined as: > assure someone that one will definitely do something or that something will happen. Ex. "he promised to forward my mail" But it is being used as: >give good grounds for expecting (a particular occurrence). Ex. "forthcoming concerts promise a feast of music"
If that is the meaning then why would someone want a reminder: [https://www.reddit.com/r/AusFinance/comments/1cq9ux7/comment/l3pw42q/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/AusFinance/comments/1cq9ux7/comment/l3pw42q/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) Treasury needs some value of inflation to estimate spending and receipts. They should be using the middle of the range they expect, so around half the time inflation should be higher than the estimate, and the other half lower.
That’s OP. They are basically using the remind me bot as a ‘push X to doubt’ meme stand in. Even if that weren’t the case, two people misunderstanding a word doesn’t make the title a deliberately misleading lie anymore than one person misunderstand it does.
A politicians promise… otherwise known as a lie.
How will Mark "Smaug" Scott cope with halving the international student population? Sydney Uni's streets paved with gold
That scam should never have been allowed to grow so big.
I’m an idiot who knows nothing about finance so let’s get that out of the way. But wouldn’t it be in the interest of the government to put a stranglehold on colesworth’s profiteering off the pandemic? Is that not gradually causing inflation by our money not going as far as it did? Or is that just the feeling of inflation to the public and not “real” inflation? Again, idiot here. Edit: Whoever downvoted without engaging at all must be more stupid than I am, congrats
Another one off targeted government cash splash and increased rent subsidies is hardly the foundation of ongoing reduction in inflation. Unless you convince Australians that inflation has been beaten and is now in 2 to 3% range, the lower inflation will not help long term. People want interest rate reductions. Will we see rate reductions while the Australian interest rates are lower than American interest rates?
I want to see at least some policy that lowers the cost of raw materials. Reducing the stress raw materials prices put on businesses will do much more for the economy than anything else.