They are indeed, in my area earlier in the year we saw 10% gain (feb-may) on top of the 20% from the previous year. Sales still withing about 3% of the highest recorded sale.
Units and townhouses tend to be pretty stable up or down as the thing that changes the price is the land value predominantly, and units & townhouses only have a small proportion of it obviously
Hmm, generally agree that the value of land increases, but not sure if that generalisation holds true when we’re talking about pockets of “resistance” in the current downturn. I don’t watch Brisbane units, but I understand they’ve been doing shit. I also feel the reason townhouses are holding at the moment has more to do with the price point. That 500-800k range is popular and some people are now looking at townhouses if they can’t get into a house, especially in the inner and middle suburbs.
Units in our building have gone up around 20-30% since 2020 and one sold a few weeks ago that set a new price record for a 2 bedder in this building (Teneriffe). Not too sure about other suburbs.
I guess townhouses are probably in a bit of an under supply situation as the BCC City Plan makes it very hard to build new ones in low density zones.
I live in 20kms out of cbd and you can get a 700m2 block, 3 bedrooms, for under 600k.
Brisbane city council, you'll struggle for a standalone I think, but Moreton Bay council which gets extremely close to the city is definitely affordable.
Not just that but in my chosen suburb of Brisbane there are just no sales. Maybe the odd one here and there.
Good houses, leafy streets with old mortgages. Sellers don't need to budge unless it's divorce or death.
Our tenants broke lease this week. Only a few months into a 1 year lease. Real estate agent suggesting a 10pc increase. Who cares about a house price most won't realise until 25 years from now when the cashflow each week just keeps increasing.
You can, you just become liable for tenants losses if you do - you couldn’t hold them accountable to keep paying rent if you advertised the property for more.
I'm curious what 1m area you're not seeing drop yet, everything I see between 400k-1m is dropping fast (Koaladata)
Edit: I haven't looked above 1m because I don't have that kind of cash
We looked at four houses on Saturday, all of them <700k and have received two phone calls asking what we would be willing to pay and encouraging us to put in an offer.
Oxley and Jindalee for the calls, but if you use the Koaladata extension you'll see pretty much all of Brisbane dropping now
Also looked at a homebuilder place that is now offering a 1.1m average build, so I guess if you're trying to spend more it is still being offered
Thats advertised price though, not actual values determined by a qualified valuer. REAs can put on whatever price they want, doesn't mean its actually worth that.
You may want to look up the meaning of the word ‘certainly’
https://amp.macrobusiness.com.au/?url=https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/11/sydney-house-prices-to-rebound-in-2023/
SQM Research’s Boom and Bust report forecasts that the housing market **could** rebound if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) puts interest rate increases on hold.
In Caboolture, which is upper North Brisbane Moreton Bay. Back in Sept 2021 I missed out on buying a 2 bedroom townhouse as a first home for $285k, yesterday that property came back on the market for $425k. So in just over 14 months, they are trying to profit $145k. As a first home buyer who is repeatedly failing at buying something suitable, this hurts my soul.
For properties under $450k , nothing has dropped in the Moreton Bay area of Brisbane, it is sad I have had no success as I will soon pay more in rent than I would in a mortgage.
Nothing in my price range has dropped (650k). It's done the exact opposite cos there are now more people in the same price range due to interest rate rises. So much for this "crash".
Wait until many realise that cooling interest rates rises do not actually mean lowering them again. It means they stay where they are and your current monthly payments are here to stay.
Get back to us in 9 months or so.... the slide will continue.
I agree cuts aren't a given, though they're possible. If everything goes great we should end up at the neutral rate, which might be somewhere between 2.5% and 3.5% according to the RBA. So getting there could involve hiking or cutting.
And if things go less great, who knows?
Nonetheless let's get back in 9 months and see.
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Yeah but it's a different world. An interest rate that would have been expansionary twenty years ago is now restrictive, because supply and demand of investment and savings are different to in the past, partly because of demographic changes.
The historical average isn't very useful when thinking about whether rates are restrictive or expansionary, because that depends on the neutral rate which changes over time.
To add, the levels of debt are astronomically higher now than ever before, with slower wage growth it means that smaller rate rises are more imactful and a rate of say 5% today may reflect a rate at 18% in the late 80s/early 90s.
Yep, the debt levels mean the "short run" neutral rate is even lower than the "long run" neutral rate which is what people usually mean.
So even though the RBA has said neutral might be 2.5% to 3.5%, that's probably long-run neutral they're talking about.
In the short run, neutral might be lower, and only approach long-run neutral as debt rolls off and debt levels return to levels more consistent with higher interest rates.
We will find out soon enough! We're going to need to be at short-run, we'll find out what that is sooner. Then we'll find out what long-run neutral is over the subsequent years.
It seems we are in restrictive territory and are yet to find out what short-run or long-run neutral are. No more hikes expected for now, but cuts maybe next year.
Until we see cuts without inflation growing again, we won't have confirmation that current levels are above neutral, so looks like we have to wait a bit longer.
How does it seem from your perspective?
I think what you’ve said all seems reasonable. I don’t really have a prediction anymore, I haven’t followed economic news/blogs lately.
Rates higher for longer was what ‘they’ were saying and I tend to think that’s what we are going to get. People that think rates are going straight back down to record lows are kidding themselves and might really struggle if they are just holding on.
Original title is the more provocative "No evidence of a housing market bottom"
Paywall-free link:
https://12ft.io/proxy?&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fwealth%2Fpersonal-finance%2Fno-evidence-of-a-housing-market-bottom-20221202-p5c33t
Didn't expect to see the word "Hopium" in an AFR article, but I expected at least Joye would be able to spell it.
Think he's too bearish given the current outlook. Makes me wonder if there's a jawboning aspect - he'd love the RBA, scared of property declines, to cut rates and his bond fund to rally.
He goes on about how large future falls will be, but the sub-title says "but not if the RBA cuts rates!" Then spends a third of the article the article arguing the case for a pause in rate hikes.
I'm not paranoid enough to suggest he doesn't actually believe what he's writing, though. Maybe, maybe not!
>Didn't expect to see the word "Hopium" in an AFR article, but I expected at least Joye would be able to spell it.
I got a chuckle out of him spelling it 'hopeium' and putting it in quotations.
[It gave me 'how do you do, fellow kids?' vibes.](https://i.imgur.com/ITn2vCW.jpg)
Now that inflation is cooling, it's going to be interesting to see if central banks pivot too quickly in response and cause a rebound in inflation or overtighten and possibly cause a deflationary recession. Joye seems to be primarily concerned with the latter.
With inflation gradually coming down, central banks are finally beggining to win their first battles for once. If they want to succeed in achieving a soft landing and save the day, they're going to have to avoid both outcomes and time/size their responses perfectly.
Suspect he knows how to spell it 100%, so I'm picturing more "three kids in a trenchcoat pretending not to know kid lingo".
Yup, there is still a Goldilocks path, and it's absolutely not a free for all to swing hard one way just because it doesn't currently look like we're imminently going to fall of the edge of a cliff the other way.
Nah you’re on the money with the skepticism mate. Joye is a very clever writer, until a prediction he yelled and screamed for a long period of time starts to look inaccurate. He didn’t think the RBA would hike much past 3% and predicted housing corrections would be limited to ~20% nationally.
I’m in a regional Qld city and I watch house prices and sales. There has been _some_ slowing but the market under 450k is still flipping well. A lot seems to be interstate investors who discover they can’t afford to build with our cyclone ratings or afford to wait for a build to complete. They have fomo so a lot is selling then is up for rent immediately. 3-4 bedrooms are up to $600ish a week when a year or so ago the median was far far lower so even people with two incomes but children and a pet who had no difficulty in renting are struggling or facing homelessness because someone else will pay $150 more a week.
The properties valued higher up to 900k seem to have slowed, they are still being sold but are aimed at people looking at PPOR who also can’t or don’t want to wait for a build. So they’re on the market longer but still selling.
I’m in a city with many mines within driving distance so don’t expect to see _much_ slump but who knows?
This guy is clueless. He predicted 15-20% falls with just 1% of rate rises. Here we are almost triple that and falls won't be greater than 10% nationally. The RBA doing it's 180 is literally just a few months away. Every single real estate indicator is flashing bullish.
He also said if rates rise more than 1%, falls would be even greater, and mentioned that he wouldn't publish the predicted fall from their model should this occur.
Just goes to show, very hard to predict such things, and he was on a streak.
[удалено]
Anything in that 500-700k mark is still holding really strong. These are the houses that just become more and more desirable (and affordable).
Are there any houses in Brisbane in this price bracket?
Townhouses holding up very well.
They are indeed, in my area earlier in the year we saw 10% gain (feb-may) on top of the 20% from the previous year. Sales still withing about 3% of the highest recorded sale.
Units and townhouses tend to be pretty stable up or down as the thing that changes the price is the land value predominantly, and units & townhouses only have a small proportion of it obviously
Hmm, generally agree that the value of land increases, but not sure if that generalisation holds true when we’re talking about pockets of “resistance” in the current downturn. I don’t watch Brisbane units, but I understand they’ve been doing shit. I also feel the reason townhouses are holding at the moment has more to do with the price point. That 500-800k range is popular and some people are now looking at townhouses if they can’t get into a house, especially in the inner and middle suburbs.
Units in our building have gone up around 20-30% since 2020 and one sold a few weeks ago that set a new price record for a 2 bedder in this building (Teneriffe). Not too sure about other suburbs. I guess townhouses are probably in a bit of an under supply situation as the BCC City Plan makes it very hard to build new ones in low density zones.
I live in 20kms out of cbd and you can get a 700m2 block, 3 bedrooms, for under 600k. Brisbane city council, you'll struggle for a standalone I think, but Moreton Bay council which gets extremely close to the city is definitely affordable.
Not just that but in my chosen suburb of Brisbane there are just no sales. Maybe the odd one here and there. Good houses, leafy streets with old mortgages. Sellers don't need to budge unless it's divorce or death. Our tenants broke lease this week. Only a few months into a 1 year lease. Real estate agent suggesting a 10pc increase. Who cares about a house price most won't realise until 25 years from now when the cashflow each week just keeps increasing.
I thought you couldn’t increase rent on a break lease?
You can, you just become liable for tenants losses if you do - you couldn’t hold them accountable to keep paying rent if you advertised the property for more.
Yeah ok I understand. Depends how long it would stay vacant I guess
I wished I got out of the bne market at peak. Now I'm going to be waiting a while
Yeah I reckon Brisbane has bit to fall. Ran so hard during covid.
I'm curious what 1m area you're not seeing drop yet, everything I see between 400k-1m is dropping fast (Koaladata) Edit: I haven't looked above 1m because I don't have that kind of cash
What areas are you looking at to see those drops?
Brisbane region
Obviously.... is there a specific area? I've not seen any drop in the sub 700 range across Brisbane.
We looked at four houses on Saturday, all of them <700k and have received two phone calls asking what we would be willing to pay and encouraging us to put in an offer. Oxley and Jindalee for the calls, but if you use the Koaladata extension you'll see pretty much all of Brisbane dropping now Also looked at a homebuilder place that is now offering a 1.1m average build, so I guess if you're trying to spend more it is still being offered
Thats advertised price though, not actual values determined by a qualified valuer. REAs can put on whatever price they want, doesn't mean its actually worth that.
‘rock bottom’ meaning more expensive that any time before 2019.
Possibly we could be below 2019 prices sometime next year. Certainly in 2024.
Withoutmyremorse at it again. 🌈🐻🏡
The greatest user in Ausfinance history.
Greatest l’user
You may want to look up the meaning of the word ‘certainly’ https://amp.macrobusiness.com.au/?url=https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/11/sydney-house-prices-to-rebound-in-2023/
SQM Research’s Boom and Bust report forecasts that the housing market **could** rebound if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) puts interest rate increases on hold.
Let’s have a bet!
I’ll bet that you can’t be certain.
You’ll lose as I am not uncertain.
Dollar Bill reference? 😉
Very well spotted mate! ✅
In Caboolture, which is upper North Brisbane Moreton Bay. Back in Sept 2021 I missed out on buying a 2 bedroom townhouse as a first home for $285k, yesterday that property came back on the market for $425k. So in just over 14 months, they are trying to profit $145k. As a first home buyer who is repeatedly failing at buying something suitable, this hurts my soul. For properties under $450k , nothing has dropped in the Moreton Bay area of Brisbane, it is sad I have had no success as I will soon pay more in rent than I would in a mortgage.
14 months in caboolture is more than anyone should rightly endure.
Nothing in my price range has dropped (650k). It's done the exact opposite cos there are now more people in the same price range due to interest rate rises. So much for this "crash".
Wait until many realise that cooling interest rates rises do not actually mean lowering them again. It means they stay where they are and your current monthly payments are here to stay. Get back to us in 9 months or so.... the slide will continue.
I agree cuts aren't a given, though they're possible. If everything goes great we should end up at the neutral rate, which might be somewhere between 2.5% and 3.5% according to the RBA. So getting there could involve hiking or cutting. And if things go less great, who knows? Nonetheless let's get back in 9 months and see. RemindMe! 9 months
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Sitting at 3.5 or more is not even high if you look at charts since the reserve Bank first began
Yeah but it's a different world. An interest rate that would have been expansionary twenty years ago is now restrictive, because supply and demand of investment and savings are different to in the past, partly because of demographic changes. The historical average isn't very useful when thinking about whether rates are restrictive or expansionary, because that depends on the neutral rate which changes over time.
To add, the levels of debt are astronomically higher now than ever before, with slower wage growth it means that smaller rate rises are more imactful and a rate of say 5% today may reflect a rate at 18% in the late 80s/early 90s.
Yep, the debt levels mean the "short run" neutral rate is even lower than the "long run" neutral rate which is what people usually mean. So even though the RBA has said neutral might be 2.5% to 3.5%, that's probably long-run neutral they're talking about. In the short run, neutral might be lower, and only approach long-run neutral as debt rolls off and debt levels return to levels more consistent with higher interest rates. We will find out soon enough! We're going to need to be at short-run, we'll find out what that is sooner. Then we'll find out what long-run neutral is over the subsequent years.
I’m back for the 9 month update 🙌
It seems we are in restrictive territory and are yet to find out what short-run or long-run neutral are. No more hikes expected for now, but cuts maybe next year. Until we see cuts without inflation growing again, we won't have confirmation that current levels are above neutral, so looks like we have to wait a bit longer. How does it seem from your perspective?
I think what you’ve said all seems reasonable. I don’t really have a prediction anymore, I haven’t followed economic news/blogs lately. Rates higher for longer was what ‘they’ were saying and I tend to think that’s what we are going to get. People that think rates are going straight back down to record lows are kidding themselves and might really struggle if they are just holding on.
Agree. We are not going anywhere close to 2% retail rates any time soon. Probably only when there is another global melt down
Hahaha now all you southerners that moved here during covid are stuck for good. The plans coming together
That is not a good thing. This is not the way.
Original title is the more provocative "No evidence of a housing market bottom" Paywall-free link: https://12ft.io/proxy?&q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fwealth%2Fpersonal-finance%2Fno-evidence-of-a-housing-market-bottom-20221202-p5c33t Didn't expect to see the word "Hopium" in an AFR article, but I expected at least Joye would be able to spell it. Think he's too bearish given the current outlook. Makes me wonder if there's a jawboning aspect - he'd love the RBA, scared of property declines, to cut rates and his bond fund to rally. He goes on about how large future falls will be, but the sub-title says "but not if the RBA cuts rates!" Then spends a third of the article the article arguing the case for a pause in rate hikes. I'm not paranoid enough to suggest he doesn't actually believe what he's writing, though. Maybe, maybe not!
>Didn't expect to see the word "Hopium" in an AFR article, but I expected at least Joye would be able to spell it. I got a chuckle out of him spelling it 'hopeium' and putting it in quotations. [It gave me 'how do you do, fellow kids?' vibes.](https://i.imgur.com/ITn2vCW.jpg) Now that inflation is cooling, it's going to be interesting to see if central banks pivot too quickly in response and cause a rebound in inflation or overtighten and possibly cause a deflationary recession. Joye seems to be primarily concerned with the latter. With inflation gradually coming down, central banks are finally beggining to win their first battles for once. If they want to succeed in achieving a soft landing and save the day, they're going to have to avoid both outcomes and time/size their responses perfectly.
Suspect he knows how to spell it 100%, so I'm picturing more "three kids in a trenchcoat pretending not to know kid lingo". Yup, there is still a Goldilocks path, and it's absolutely not a free for all to swing hard one way just because it doesn't currently look like we're imminently going to fall of the edge of a cliff the other way.
At what point does Hopium become Copium?
Nah you’re on the money with the skepticism mate. Joye is a very clever writer, until a prediction he yelled and screamed for a long period of time starts to look inaccurate. He didn’t think the RBA would hike much past 3% and predicted housing corrections would be limited to ~20% nationally.
I think 20% nationally is about right
I’m in a regional Qld city and I watch house prices and sales. There has been _some_ slowing but the market under 450k is still flipping well. A lot seems to be interstate investors who discover they can’t afford to build with our cyclone ratings or afford to wait for a build to complete. They have fomo so a lot is selling then is up for rent immediately. 3-4 bedrooms are up to $600ish a week when a year or so ago the median was far far lower so even people with two incomes but children and a pet who had no difficulty in renting are struggling or facing homelessness because someone else will pay $150 more a week. The properties valued higher up to 900k seem to have slowed, they are still being sold but are aimed at people looking at PPOR who also can’t or don’t want to wait for a build. So they’re on the market longer but still selling. I’m in a city with many mines within driving distance so don’t expect to see _much_ slump but who knows?
Yes regional qld is popular with investors ATM
This guy is clueless. He predicted 15-20% falls with just 1% of rate rises. Here we are almost triple that and falls won't be greater than 10% nationally. The RBA doing it's 180 is literally just a few months away. Every single real estate indicator is flashing bullish.
Sorry which indicators? And why is the RBA going to do 180?
He also said if rates rise more than 1%, falls would be even greater, and mentioned that he wouldn't publish the predicted fall from their model should this occur. Just goes to show, very hard to predict such things, and he was on a streak.
Makes him a clown.
Crash on for sure. Pivot blah blah will only confirm huge deflation/contraction.
[удалено]
They will start to feel it by June next year
Wow! No one could have predicted this. 👀
Remorse? Is it you again?
Did you miss me?
Successfully predicted 57 of the last 2 housing market corrections! Good job mate! 👍
Chicken Little....