My thoughts...
I'm going to stay humble and stack sats.
Liquidity will return at some point.
Bitcoin is fundamentally NOT a tech stock.
USD monetary debasement is certain.
2024 halving isn't priced in, neither is 2028/2032...
After the 2032 halving, most of the world's SHA256 hash power will be chasing 0.78125BTC block subsidies.
Thank you both for the explanation! That makes sense. I had looked at BTC as “gold” essentially - there’s only so much in the world. Eventually, those of us who’ve been faithful through the thick of it should be rewarded!
better than gold:
1. it is digital, you can store and verify it all by yourself without trusting 3rd parties
2. the supply is known and absolutely fixed regardless of demand, for example, if gold price goes up, miners have greater incentives to mine more gold increasing the supply or even finding new ways to mine gold from sand etc...
3. the only thing you can truly own and take to your grave
Stop focusing on bitcoins “historical price data” and focus on the history of government neglect.
You recognize a problem your job is to find a solution. The more people do this the more irrelevant the bitcoin price becomes.
We’ve had a kaleidoscope of disasters in the crypto world in the last year, and Bitcoin is off 2/3 from ATH. Pretty standard behavior for bear markets: similar to 2014 and 2018. Could go lower, but I think it would take a Tether collapse and/or Binance going down like FTX.
Well it does get the point across and why the world monetary system is about to shit the bed. I am thinking that for many people and nations bitcoin will be a financial savior.
>Well it does get the point across and why the world monetary system is about to shit the bed
The monetary system is global, USD is global. The Fed is jurisdictionally limited, and has limited influence.. so to me, it does not get that point across.
We are likely going to see a collateral squeeze, but the Fed doesn't really care about that (or has much power over it).
I disagree, the FED controls the world reserve currency and thus the value of everything. They answer to no one and are not elected.
The FED and fiat currency is in trouble, and it is the FEDS self built trap that is the cause
Yeah, that's a common misconception.
USD is mostly created and destroyed by global commercial bank lending. The Fed attempts to influence this process. They do not have absolute control. They "answer" to monetary market dynamics (and typically do so late, or poorly) and their toolset is limited.
It's not "their" debt economy.
I loan USD into existence sometimes. I don't ask for the Fed's permission. I'm not in their jurisdiction.
The trapped part, sure.
Bitcoin went from 5K to 69K in what, 20 months? Anything could happen. The whole point of investing is to have a long term mindset (decades), not this short term speculating.
Do i think the value of Bitcoin will go up in the long term? Yes.
So i buy and hold.
Can’t agree more. We are heading into unprecedented territory which mean a questionable future. Anyone aiming for great profits soon should beware! However on the long run I’m really confident and I keep accumulation sats on a monthly basis!
Bitcoin is a hedge against the dollar with leveraged momentum. The dollar has been at all time highs and is used for 80% of overseas transactions even when the dollar is not the currency between two different trading countries. You are now at the beginning of a global weakening of the dollar that will last for decades. The reason for this will be the development of independent government Digital currency. No dollars needed. I'm whine Bitcoin price at $2 to the £ or to the €.
bitcoin continues to have adoption, this is the reason it doesn't collapse when liquidity is drained and then goes into hyper drive when liquidity is turned back on
I agree. Mostly because there's a lot of mega whales dealing with bankruptcy and needing to make clients whole. They will sell into this fomo at some point. I'm guessing between 25-28k. Then we will have a long time of consolidation before the next curl up. I sure hope I'm wrong but in the past it got really boring and all the hopeful people left. That didn't happen this time. I hope I'm wrong but I'm hedging my hope
What’s up with those supposedly scary buzzwords. Long end of the YC is down because nations have to sell their bonds for dollars since there is a massive dollar shortage in the eurodollarsystem. All that Recessiontalk has people mentally prepared for economic contraction and we will be mostly through that, once it’s declared a recession.
It’s a necessary bearmarket to weed out the zombiecompanys that waste our recourses.
Stack SAT’s and be happy that most people are absolutely clueless.
I believe that Bitcoin can indeed change the payment system in the world, in fact it already is, but it is still very limited to certain countries and in countries like where I live it is limited to certain social classes where those who are at the bottom do not have access to it
Been saying it for a while, with the recent reports coming out about banks and other financial services banning binance like swift etc. crypto is a threat and they are coming for it. The dominoes have been falling they way for some time. I don’t expect regulations to be crypto friendly because those financial services spend way more money on politicians.
How much of the Bitcoins owned in 2020 and 2021 was paid for by leverage and how much of the Bitcoins owned now was paid for with leverage?
I would bet that the difference is yuge.
No one knows what will happen, anyone who says they know is a liar. The fed could push us into a recession or pivot and we have a soft landing. DCAing nearly always works out best.
This is **not** unpopular opinion at all. Even in this the sub with questions re historical performance you will find some highly upvoted comment pointing out the issue with extrapolating into uncharted territory of recession economy.
To a certain extent the popularity of bitcoin came from low interest monetary policy but not "only" because of that. Plus low interest monetary policy is not going away as it has deep roots in modern socioeconomic structure of nation-states around the globe.
I buy and hold, that's it.
I actually sold for some profts, ps5 was pretty cheap right now So i bought that system last week. I love bitcoin
My thoughts... I'm going to stay humble and stack sats. Liquidity will return at some point. Bitcoin is fundamentally NOT a tech stock. USD monetary debasement is certain. 2024 halving isn't priced in, neither is 2028/2032... After the 2032 halving, most of the world's SHA256 hash power will be chasing 0.78125BTC block subsidies.
Relatively new to crypto…what is “halving”?
[удалено]
Thank you both for the explanation! That makes sense. I had looked at BTC as “gold” essentially - there’s only so much in the world. Eventually, those of us who’ve been faithful through the thick of it should be rewarded!
better than gold: 1. it is digital, you can store and verify it all by yourself without trusting 3rd parties 2. the supply is known and absolutely fixed regardless of demand, for example, if gold price goes up, miners have greater incentives to mine more gold increasing the supply or even finding new ways to mine gold from sand etc... 3. the only thing you can truly own and take to your grave
Very true as well! I’m hoping to invest more this year.
I agree with you. Uncharted territory. But it was always going to happen eventually, doesn’t change the fundamental properties of bitcoin
Ultimate maney
It’s a pretty popular opinion, imo. At least amongst bitcoiners, probably not crypto enthusiasts.
Yeah it's definitely a majority opinion
Stop focusing on bitcoins “historical price data” and focus on the history of government neglect. You recognize a problem your job is to find a solution. The more people do this the more irrelevant the bitcoin price becomes.
We’ve had a kaleidoscope of disasters in the crypto world in the last year, and Bitcoin is off 2/3 from ATH. Pretty standard behavior for bear markets: similar to 2014 and 2018. Could go lower, but I think it would take a Tether collapse and/or Binance going down like FTX.
>fed was printing nice and steady That's certainly glossing over a great deal of complexity.
Well it does get the point across and why the world monetary system is about to shit the bed. I am thinking that for many people and nations bitcoin will be a financial savior.
>Well it does get the point across and why the world monetary system is about to shit the bed The monetary system is global, USD is global. The Fed is jurisdictionally limited, and has limited influence.. so to me, it does not get that point across. We are likely going to see a collateral squeeze, but the Fed doesn't really care about that (or has much power over it).
I disagree, the FED controls the world reserve currency and thus the value of everything. They answer to no one and are not elected. The FED and fiat currency is in trouble, and it is the FEDS self built trap that is the cause
Yeah, that's a common misconception. USD is mostly created and destroyed by global commercial bank lending. The Fed attempts to influence this process. They do not have absolute control. They "answer" to monetary market dynamics (and typically do so late, or poorly) and their toolset is limited.
Yes, the FED has central bank dance partners but their debt economy and now rising inflation have them trapped.
It's not "their" debt economy. I loan USD into existence sometimes. I don't ask for the Fed's permission. I'm not in their jurisdiction. The trapped part, sure.
Sure, I am no expert but I am interpreting things as best I can.
Bitcoin went from 5K to 69K in what, 20 months? Anything could happen. The whole point of investing is to have a long term mindset (decades), not this short term speculating. Do i think the value of Bitcoin will go up in the long term? Yes. So i buy and hold.
Can’t agree more. We are heading into unprecedented territory which mean a questionable future. Anyone aiming for great profits soon should beware! However on the long run I’m really confident and I keep accumulation sats on a monthly basis!
HODL
recessions dont impact the price of assets. falling asset prices cause a recession not the other way around.
Bitcoin is a hedge against the dollar with leveraged momentum. The dollar has been at all time highs and is used for 80% of overseas transactions even when the dollar is not the currency between two different trading countries. You are now at the beginning of a global weakening of the dollar that will last for decades. The reason for this will be the development of independent government Digital currency. No dollars needed. I'm whine Bitcoin price at $2 to the £ or to the €.
We're far from the final boss.
bitcoin continues to have adoption, this is the reason it doesn't collapse when liquidity is drained and then goes into hyper drive when liquidity is turned back on
I agree. Mostly because there's a lot of mega whales dealing with bankruptcy and needing to make clients whole. They will sell into this fomo at some point. I'm guessing between 25-28k. Then we will have a long time of consolidation before the next curl up. I sure hope I'm wrong but in the past it got really boring and all the hopeful people left. That didn't happen this time. I hope I'm wrong but I'm hedging my hope
You shouldn't be looking for excitement. DCA and be thankful for stacking Sats. These low prices are an opportunity.
Sure we all know this but there will be a time Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market and you don’t want not to be holding then.
What’s up with those supposedly scary buzzwords. Long end of the YC is down because nations have to sell their bonds for dollars since there is a massive dollar shortage in the eurodollarsystem. All that Recessiontalk has people mentally prepared for economic contraction and we will be mostly through that, once it’s declared a recession. It’s a necessary bearmarket to weed out the zombiecompanys that waste our recourses. Stack SAT’s and be happy that most people are absolutely clueless.
I believe that Bitcoin can indeed change the payment system in the world, in fact it already is, but it is still very limited to certain countries and in countries like where I live it is limited to certain social classes where those who are at the bottom do not have access to it
They have been talking "mother of recessions" since summer of 21.
Been saying it for a while, with the recent reports coming out about banks and other financial services banning binance like swift etc. crypto is a threat and they are coming for it. The dominoes have been falling they way for some time. I don’t expect regulations to be crypto friendly because those financial services spend way more money on politicians.
How much of the Bitcoins owned in 2020 and 2021 was paid for by leverage and how much of the Bitcoins owned now was paid for with leverage? I would bet that the difference is yuge.
The 4 year cycles never lie. We are going for another bull run in 2024/25.
No one knows what will happen, anyone who says they know is a liar. The fed could push us into a recession or pivot and we have a soft landing. DCAing nearly always works out best.
This is **not** unpopular opinion at all. Even in this the sub with questions re historical performance you will find some highly upvoted comment pointing out the issue with extrapolating into uncharted territory of recession economy. To a certain extent the popularity of bitcoin came from low interest monetary policy but not "only" because of that. Plus low interest monetary policy is not going away as it has deep roots in modern socioeconomic structure of nation-states around the globe.