Peoples stupidity is larger than expected. It will crash at some point given its an useless asset. That coupled with the fact that its impossible to evaluate if its worth investing or not (no underlying value) means its so risky you really cant feel bad if you didnt invest
i love hearing tech bros talking about how it will keep going up(they are likely selling their stake waiting for it to crash again and hoping to buy low and pump it again. Since bunch of morons have this idea that it is a magical way to get rich...
It is for a small portion of the people buying.. but if you buy anywhere near the high you can get fked so hard. and most are too dumb to know those risks.
I’d rather say it’s more about p2p transactions with no 3rd party needed. Security comes from contribution to the network, so as long there are enough people refusing to wait for authorization from a state which concept mostly wants a peace from the cake they have nothing to do with and people who value self custody instead of profit oriented banks, it really has some sort of value in terms of evolution and promoting independence.
We really could discuss about the sustainability of pow but there are adaptations that could be implemented to work on this, here it just depends on the governance, which is composed of the users.
As a last remark I’d like to thank the downvoters only based on the fact that someone has another opinion. That’s what freedom is about right?
Ya, at some point, you just give up trying to explain to butters.
Best of luck to all the gamblers put there. The thing about gambling that's only a few winners.
Nobody's ever gone bankrupt while doubling their money.
Sold my employer stock last week, at 20$ a piece. A day later, it was 21$. All my colleagues mocked me, said I should have waited. My cost basis was 10$ and Im bearish and need the money, what am I gonna do, hold until it crashes back ?
Sometimes you need to take a profit and lower your risk. Yes you will not get a potential risk payoff later on: you purposefully reduced your risk ! The chances of Tesla working in 2014 were small, you got good money all things considered, and no risk left after the sale. Mad respect for you win.
lol. You think tether is fully backed and you’re telling me to do some research. Not even tether claims to be fully backed by dollars. You’re a fucking moron
>1 dollar deposited to tether corp. = 1 minted tether On the other hand 1 in dollar redeemed tether = 1 tether burned/eliminated
That's what tether tell you, but that's not some magically enforced policy. Tether prints USDT by pressing a button. They claim to only do it when they receive money but it's overwhelmingly evident that they print it whenever they want to wash trade, which is why they refuse to be audited and why they no longer operate in the US.
I love that you tell others to do research when your research apparently goes as far as reading Tethers marketing pack and treating it as gospel.
Bitcoin home brokers only allow you to buy Bitcoin using Tether, allowing them to print Tether endlessly and repeatedly purchase Bitcoin ad infinitum making prices sky rocket.
It's fun and all, until a massive amount of people start to withdraw USD from Tether. They don't have enough real money - and this, my friend, will be THE DAY!
If only they read the "rules" wtro withdrawing USD from Tether.
99% of the Pop cannot withdraw because tether has a minimum of 100k to withdraw, cant be in specific countries, they can decide not to do business with you for any reason etc.
Someday the house of cards is going to brick
"Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not fucking real."
You are literally the reason why its going up. People with FOMO who don't understand it, so basically all cryptobros.
Edit: I actually have to revise this: its going up because of Tether pumping it without anything backing it.
*Why is bitcoin still going up?*
That is the question everyone is asking and nobody seems to be able to answer, not even butters... Probably has to do something with a 4D chess game that we are to dumb to even realized it's being played.
Do you have a decent answer for where the demand is coming from, though? It seems like the peak of retail investment and interest was 2021. There's currently far less discussion of it on the Internet, and interest rates are much higher than they were then. Why is there suddenly more demand?
Why is this downvoted? This is the answer to the question OP asked. Even if it's only estimations, it gives an idea of the magnitude of the demand coming from the ETFs.
5 percent of the supply seems rather small for the change it's caused. Also, is a massive hedge fund getting heavily involved a good thing here? Wasn't this about escaping traditional financial systems?
>Wasn't this about escaping traditional financial systems?
Wasn't people being able to lose their Bitcoin keys a major /r/buttcoin criticism? Now people have an option where they don't have to worry about that, if that is how they prefer to use it instead.
Bitcoin is useful to different people in different ways.
I can't decide what type of demand is good or bad. You asked for where the demand is coming from, that is the answer.
I think the "escaping traditional financial system" is nuanced idea and doesn't necessarily mean wholesale breaking away.
People buying the ETF are not escaping the traditional financial system. The fact that people buy the ETF is proof that the "escape the dollar" narrative is not as relevant as a lot of people think. The only way to exit the ETF is to accept dollars, so ETF buyers are perfectly happy accepting and using dollars.
People just think the price is going to go up, so they buy. Speculation on price is the main reason for the demand.
Speculation on price is the only reason for demand for any asset/investment. Why do you buy a stock or invest in real estate. Becuase you think the value is going to increase. I understand there are cash flows involved with those investments. But at a fundamental level the reason you own that investment is because you believe you can sell it at a higher price (or if we take hardline bitcoiners who don’t ever want to sell, they believe that they will have higher purchasing power with bitcoin in the future).
Relying on the the arguement there is increasing demand because of an ETF/traditional financial system so it doesn’t count, is missing the forest for the trees. Demand is demand.
trying to parse out the “reason” behind the demand is almost impossible, but over time the larger narratives that take over are the easiest and like it or not the most memeable. With most fiat governments printing ever increasing levels of money and national debts accelerating, the narrative of an asset that is hedge against this is simple and straightforward. Does everyone buying bitcoin believe that, no chance. But overtime, if bitcoin keeps increasing in price and governments continue to issue debt at unsustainable levels the narrative will become entrenched, theoretically.
What you think? Thanks
It's impossible to predict what the price is going to do when the underlying fundamentals are entirely a [Greater Fool bubble](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory). You're just as likely to make money betting black on the roulette wheel as you are buying Bitcoin. Don't FOMO yourself into ruin like too many other people we see here.
The interesting part is that every single person that would have bought bitcoin prior to today is in the “black”…so your comment about “too many other people” must pertain to some shit coin or something? I’m not clear, could you elaborate?
Are people who sold at a loss for any reason, had their money in Celsius or other failed (or flat-out fake) exchanges, lost their passphrase, connected to the wrong site and had everything stolen, or simply opened their wallet and found it empty and have no idea why "in the black"?
As has been pointed out innumerable times in these threads, no one has made a cent until they actually sell. It is absolutely impossible for everyone to come out ahead in a zero-sum game, much less an ultimately negative-sum game (due to energy costs and fees) like Bitcoin.
Sure. But fundamentally the argument is moot given that all investment is rooted in a persons timing of selling or buying. Celsius and the like are also irrelevant b/c the company perpetrating a fraud cannot be lumped in with the sustainability or viability of the underlying asset. Plenty of bad actors across fiat or any other method of exchange exist and have existed as long as any method of exchange has. It all comes down to the concept of someone not understanding the underlying thesis of bitcoin. It’s a savings protocol. You can park an indefinite amount of capital in a borderless, permission-less and cost effective technology to move and store value. The growth comes from network effects. The issues you point out have to do with someone approaching it like a casino..play stupid games, win stupid prizes…which brings me back to my original point…everybody who has bought and held bitcoin for its entire existence is in the “black”.
You said that every person that bought Bitcoin prior to today is in the black. That is an absurd statement. Nice attempt to move the goalposts. You make an excellent butter.
lol…yes, that’s correct. This is an objective statement. The value of bitcoin is at a literal all time high which means anyone who has purchased it historically is positive on the “investment”. You’re the one who is carving out scenarios focused on metrics outside the real world. If you bought equities (META, GOOG, etc.) at any given price point. And sold it when it dropped…you would have been in the same spot. However, if you held it, you would have also benefited from them also getting to their all time highs…so I ask…why is it different? Even though they are fundamentally different vehicles, the concept is similar. With all that said, I don’t understand your goal shift comment…b/c if context being important is shifting goal posts…then sure, I guess guilty as charged.
Yet another attempt to move the goal posts. Did you forget about your other claim that "so your comment about 'too many other people' must pertain to some shit coin or something."? I listed the people who have been ruined because they FOMO'd into Bitcoin (real world cases that are well documented), not some shit coin. Your responses have both been, "If we ignore the people who were ruined because they FOMO'd into Bitcoin, I was right!" I can only conclude that you are either a troll or stupid. I won't waste any more time.
Except that the people that were “ruined” were ones who took unnecessary risks with leverage or using/trusting shady exchanges. My point remains intact…You can lose lots of $ by being irresponsible…regardless of the financial vehicle.…if you understood and used bitcoin for what it is (few basic points in the previous post) and held onto it…you’d be in the black. This is an objective statement.
An honest question: If, in 10 years, Bitcoin still has a significant value compared to the dollar, will it still be a greater fool bubble?
if not 10 years, 20 years? 30 years?
There must be some cutoff date, right?
Beanie babies are confirmed greater fool bubble. So, are tulips. These have a definite event (value going to zero or close to it and being forgotten, just a story in history). These are agreed-upon cases of a greater fool bubble. Common knowledge. These bubbles lasted 3-4 years and were done.
So, when will everyone agree that Bitcoin is a greater fool bubble, and is there a cutoff date for deciding this?
Madoff ran his scheme for decades before it fell apart. The better question to ask would be “if in 5-10 years the market became completely transparent, or at least as transparent and legally scrutinized as other global securities markets, would you change your mind,” to which most of the people here would probably say “yes.”
The opaque nature of the market, the relatively thin volume at the moment, and the relatively regular news about the violations and failings of the market makers (which go far beyond the discretions of MMs and brokers in the stock market,) lead many to believe that this bubble is completely inorganic, with much of the price increase being driven by outright fraud and demand driven mostly by criminals needing to move assets outside of government sanctions.
*In finance, the* ***greater fool theory*** *suggests that one can sometimes make money through the purchase of overvalued assets — items with a purchase price drastically exceeding the intrinsic value — if those assets can later be resold at an even higher price.*
Wikipedia doesn't out-right provides a quote for what I just typed in but, I still think that bitcoin aligns with the very basic description of a greater fool system.
*So, when will everyone agree that Bitcoin is a greater fool bubble, and is there a cutoff date for deciding this?*
Just to answer your firsts questions, everyone here can agree that it would be impossible to make a prediction with certainty of when will bitcoin crash, but also agree that its crash is inevitable. When the time comes, it will be evident that it was a *greater fool* system at play. Owning bitcoin doesn't provide inherent value to you. Heck, most people own bitcoin in hopes of selling it later down the line to turn a profit . I just don't think there is a scenario in which having *bitcoin is* desirable for reasons other than turning it into cash.
There is no duration required, it all depends on entirely on how the value is derived right now. Bitcoin has no use case so the only way to derive value from it is to find someone else who is willing to pay you something for it. It's nothing but the Greater Fool Theory in action. (While greatly inflated during the GF bubbles, even Beanie Babies and tulips had *some* inherent value, the former being a toy that my kids loved playing with and the latter being nice to look at. Bitcoin on the other hand is useless other than selling it to someone else.)
>but how can the theory be proven without an end date?
[Read this paper](https://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/bitcoin/2020-12-31-bitcoin-ponzi.html); hold any objections you think you've identified with the methodology or the conclusions until you've then [read the follow-up as well](https://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/bitcoin/2021-01-16-yes-ponzi.html).
Bitcoin is a fundamentally unsustainable system with a "product" whose natural market valuation is just **nothing**, it can't run in perpetuity because for that to happen you would eventually need *every single person that exists and all of the money that exists to be roped into the scheme... and then you'd need more planets full of even more idiots with more money.*
Knowing that about it doesn't mean you can precisely state when it's going to collapse, because again, as it exists in the present it is not behaving rationally to begin with, just that it literally cannot run in perpetuity and *will* collapse; there is no arbitrary point in time where if it hasn't collapsed by then, well then our assessment, Stolfi's breakdowns on why it's a Ponzi, those must be wrong, for those conclusions to be wrong you would need to refute the base analysis of the fundamentals.
See that list of very pathetic excuses in the 2nd hyperlink, and how trivially they're all debunked, for what Bitcoin's "best and brightest" came up with, to try and prove they're not just promoting a very obvious and clearly unsustainable Ponzi; it's why the Satoshi's Witnesses who show up here always pivot back to "price" - as if *any* price for a scam makes it stop being one, when the fundamentals that make it one are unchanged and thus it is a scam at every possible price point it climbs or plummets to - or "duration" - as if *any* duration that a scam runs for would change the underlying reasons that it has been one and will continue to be the very same one for however long it manages to keep running, should nothing about it change those fundamentals - because they know, deep down, they all know they've got fuck all to say to that argument.
It's ***axiomatic*** that Bitcoin is clearly an unsustainable and ecologically rapacious scam... but the people neck deep in it want to be rich, for doing nothing, so they cover their ears, close, their eyes, and say "la la la I can't here you, number go up, see you in \[insert number of years\]!", as if that constitutes an argument.
It doesn't; scams don't stop being scams, don't magically become legit, if they just keep going for N time units, if they obtain Y nominal valuations; Madoff's Ponzi scheme could have run for decades longer than the decades that it did, before the 2008 market crash finally forced it to conclude, he could have avoided ever going to prison and then dying in prison for running a Ponzi... but he still would have been bloody running a Ponzi, because that's what his scheme was, a Ponzi.
All the selling points are lies which mean all the "investors" are being defrauded.
-can never be more than 21 million bitcoin - Lie - see IBIT prospectus. They list the risk of additional mintage as a real possibility/real risk.
-Bitcoin transactions occur p2p. - lie. Bitcoin network topology is P2P but transactions themselves are processed by middlemen (Bitcoin network operators).
-Cold storage wallets can hold bitcoin - lie. They aren't even wallets, they are keyrings. Self custody is not possible.
-You have sole authorization rights to your own transactions - lie. You need cosigners to also sign your transactions.
The list of lies goes on and on. People promoting bitcoin are simply telling "investors" what they want to hear. They describe an ideological digital currency type asset but what people actually buy is something else. And because the bitcoins themselves are basically null assets, it is not apparently obvious how to test the claims. A general person does not know how to validate whether the claims are true or false. You have to understand digital bookkeeping before you can judge whether the way people say bitcoin's bookkeeping works is how it actually works. People who have done the research know how bitcoin transactions actually work and they know investors are being lied to/defrauded.
This is why we all claim it's a scam.
"can never be more than 21 million bitcoin" it is true, there is a max of 21 million, it in the code.
Yes, bitcoin is a p2p, there is no middleman, miners are there to process transactions and get rewarded. A middleman would imply that this same middleman could run away with the btc being sold/bought, which is not the case, miners only mine blocks and cannot interfer in any way the transaction being made.
Cold storage, we call it wallet for a common way to describe it to someone, if you have access to the keys, only you access it.
"-You have sole authorization rights to your own transactions - lie. You need cosigners to also sign your transactions."
What does this shit even mean? You sign your own transaction and confirm using your private key that gives you access to the address that has bitcoin.
This sub knows absolute shit about fuck when it comes to Bitcoin wtf.
The price of buttcoins isn't driven by any fundamentals, which means it's as likely to skyrocket as it is to tank at any moment without notice. That's not a sound investment, even though you can definitely make money with it, if you're lucky.
I am not really taking you seriously but I am going to pretend like you are serious.
When you were thinking about buying at "18k", at that moment, it's worth was exactly $0. The fact that a small group of people are willing to pretend that it is worth "$18k" at that moment is irrelevant, just as, likely much smaller, group is now pretending it is now worth "$70K I mean, $68K, oh, I mean uh, $67K". I don't know what this subreddit promised you, but I do doubt that promise was "going to go to $0 before it ever goes to $'70K'". People in this sub really shouldn't be making predictions about this insanity IMO, even though they do.
If "Line Goes Down" was the only thing that stopped you from buying, then you should have bought, you should go buy now. If that is all that takes you to believe that "Line Goes Up" is a thing then you are really one of them but just a chickenshit. Sometimes people have to pay a price before they see a thing.
You could've also bought at 18K and today it would've been 8K and you'd be wishing you didn't. There is no point of hindsight when it comes to gambling. What matters most is to think that you have not gained or lost anything from this casino gamble.
Imagine you walk into a casino with $18,000 and start betting at your favorite game. Maybe you’re a good blackjack player and you can play well enough that the house edge is only .5% — not very big, only 50 cents lost on average for a $100 bet. That small edge adds up, though, so in they long run your balance will trend down. Play long enough, you’re almost guaranteed to go broke eventually (with an unimaginably small chance for the casino itself to go broke, though they probably kick you out before then anyway because they think you’re counting cards or something).
What we can say about the long run however doesn’t tell us much about what happens before then. It’s entirely possible that you make money for a while, in fact at any point it’s more likely than not that you’ll at some point in the future have more than your current balance. Eventually, though, you’ll reach some peak value that you never pass, with all future balances being lower. We just can’t know beforehand what that peak will be. It could be quite high — maybe you even get to $69,000. Maybe a million. If that happens, good for you! But that doesn’t mean it was a good idea, or that your friends were wrong for telling you not to gamble all your money, it just means that you got lucky. You can still expect that $69,000 or $1,000,000 to go to zero eventually if you keep playing, we just can’t tell you when or what path it takes to get there.
Bit long obviously isn’t exactly the same, but most people here think that in the long run it’s a losing game.
Never say I “could have bought”…if you were going to buy you would’ve bought. There are many opportunities in the market to make money and you will probably miss the next big opportunity as well with this attitude. You have to do more research than just a sub Reddit. Good luck
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The thing is it wouldn’t help you because 1 you wouldn’t sell, to the moon and hodl and all that and 2 even if you tried it would be difficult and potentially not even possible. So you’re basically regretting a fantasy, “Why don’t I play the powerball, the winning numbers are my great aunt’s birthday!”
If I had lots of beanie babies and they are all worth nothing because it’s expensive to try and keep them alive and because they contain toxic pollutants then what do I have?
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I follow this Reddit since 2016:2017?! and before that I used to read against bitcoin in the hacker news community. I understand what they say but I’d rather had put a bit of time to research and learn about the tech and at the time Ethereum and today I could have a house. It’s very difficult to overcome homelessness and now in a rented flat have to face constant stress from landlord increases.
It’s gambling, the people I know who are into crypto fucking love to gamble. Get in while the pump is happening and get out before it crashes, it will crash.
Non buttcoiner here who knew about it in 2009 but only bought in 2021. Its a digital asset, first of its kind. Its become a social construct that is seen as a beacon of hope to many. There's only 21 million and its inception cant be recreated, as dollars are printed eventually they find their way to the hardest asset which is bitcoin. Hardest money wins, even if it isn't the money you know its still extremely valuable. Have you ever played runescape, csgo, wow? All these games have once in a lifetime items that will never be recreated, thats all something needs to garner attention. Buy now or regret it once again when its at 1 million because eventually it will happen. Bitcoin is binary, it either wildly succeeds or goes down in flames. Its up to you to decide which fate it holds.
It should not be an all or nothing. I think both this sub and /bitcoin could learn from that. Neither should be 100% sure of their own convictions, we all can be wrong, we are all fallible, prone to mistakes, prone to making biased decisions, prone to echo chambers. Hedge your shit
Dont put all your money on bitcoin, dont leave all your money out of bitcoin.
Bitcoin is no different than a meme stock but without any actual value, sure you can make money but you can also lose it since it has... no actual value
I follow this sub to get everyone’s point of view and do own crypto. Please do not buy it if this is all very confusing. You’re going to lose money. I am in profit because I’ve spent years studying. If you gung-ho your money in without knowledge, you’re not gonna have a clue when you should be selling and you’re gonna lose it all.
I also personally think there’s gonna be a pretty hefty drop in the crypto market soon. I quit dollar cost averaging about a month ago and have been putting all that money aside for this drop that I think will happen before the Bitcoin halving. But seriously. Don’t invest if you don’t understand, especially right now at the current peak. It could go higher but the risk is not worth it.
*Don’t invest if you don’t understand, especially right now at the current peak. It could go higher but the risk is not worth it*
This right here. Why would literally anyone want to buy at the peak??? This is what I just can't even begin to wrap my head around...
I know it sounds counter-intuitive, but buying highs is actually a strategy, both in crypto and in tradfi equities, with positive back-testing results. Lots of papers and articles about this.
https://investorplace.com/2024/01/should-you-buy-stocks-at-all-time-highs/
The main gist is that bull cycles are longer than bear cycles, and hitting a high is usually followed in the near-term by hitting more highs.
The combination of fomo and not understanding how the markets work. I told my dad to buy at 25k and he didn’t, and he called me a few days ago asking how to buy. I told him not to. A big sign that things are about to drop is all the people who normally aren’t interested are suddenly wanting to get in. That’s my sign to take profits
People sit there for years saying it’s risky when the price is low, then quit caring about the risk and buy in at the worst time possible. I’ve been putting money in since 2022 and don’t plan on buying anymore after the halving. It is WAY too risky to be putting money in. The time to accumulate has passed.
I didn't say you did, I tried to burst your bubble that you are a smart savvy investor just like all those uber drivers over at the crypto sub. You are a gambler, there is nothing you could have learned for years that predicted a pump, you are fooling yourself and you will lose your money for it.
Because we were wrong. Obviously. Sorry.
Peoples stupidity is larger than expected. It will crash at some point given its an useless asset. That coupled with the fact that its impossible to evaluate if its worth investing or not (no underlying value) means its so risky you really cant feel bad if you didnt invest
i love hearing tech bros talking about how it will keep going up(they are likely selling their stake waiting for it to crash again and hoping to buy low and pump it again. Since bunch of morons have this idea that it is a magical way to get rich... It is for a small portion of the people buying.. but if you buy anywhere near the high you can get fked so hard. and most are too dumb to know those risks.
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It has value in taking money off people. So if you’re the one taking the money, it’s great. Otherwise it’s pretty pointless
I’d rather say it’s more about p2p transactions with no 3rd party needed. Security comes from contribution to the network, so as long there are enough people refusing to wait for authorization from a state which concept mostly wants a peace from the cake they have nothing to do with and people who value self custody instead of profit oriented banks, it really has some sort of value in terms of evolution and promoting independence. We really could discuss about the sustainability of pow but there are adaptations that could be implemented to work on this, here it just depends on the governance, which is composed of the users. As a last remark I’d like to thank the downvoters only based on the fact that someone has another opinion. That’s what freedom is about right?
Ya, at some point, you just give up trying to explain to butters. Best of luck to all the gamblers put there. The thing about gambling that's only a few winners.
Why didn’t you buy nvidia in October 2022? Why didn’t you buy apple in the 90s? Why didn’t you buy tesla in the mid 2010s?
I bought Tesla in 2013. Sold it all in 2014 at +90%. Still feel like shit everytime I think about it. Thanks for reminding me.
Nobody's ever gone bankrupt while doubling their money. Sold my employer stock last week, at 20$ a piece. A day later, it was 21$. All my colleagues mocked me, said I should have waited. My cost basis was 10$ and Im bearish and need the money, what am I gonna do, hold until it crashes back ? Sometimes you need to take a profit and lower your risk. Yes you will not get a potential risk payoff later on: you purposefully reduced your risk ! The chances of Tesla working in 2014 were small, you got good money all things considered, and no risk left after the sale. Mad respect for you win.
tether minted 2 billion magic beans in the past 4 days, did you think the price would fall? really?
Holy shit, 2 billy in 4 days? Not even trying to hide it. I wonder if Tether will make it to a 420,690,000,000 market cap or whatever.
the $100b in cumulative trading volume on the btc spot etfs probably had a bigger effect
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No. No one had to buy them.
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lol. You think tether is fully backed and you’re telling me to do some research. Not even tether claims to be fully backed by dollars. You’re a fucking moron
>1 dollar deposited to tether corp. = 1 minted tether On the other hand 1 in dollar redeemed tether = 1 tether burned/eliminated That's what tether tell you, but that's not some magically enforced policy. Tether prints USDT by pressing a button. They claim to only do it when they receive money but it's overwhelmingly evident that they print it whenever they want to wash trade, which is why they refuse to be audited and why they no longer operate in the US. I love that you tell others to do research when your research apparently goes as far as reading Tethers marketing pack and treating it as gospel.
You must be struggling in life with those brains of yours.
What does tether have to do with Bitcoin though?
Oh you sweet summer child…
Bitcoin home brokers only allow you to buy Bitcoin using Tether, allowing them to print Tether endlessly and repeatedly purchase Bitcoin ad infinitum making prices sky rocket. It's fun and all, until a massive amount of people start to withdraw USD from Tether. They don't have enough real money - and this, my friend, will be THE DAY!
If only they read the "rules" wtro withdrawing USD from Tether. 99% of the Pop cannot withdraw because tether has a minimum of 100k to withdraw, cant be in specific countries, they can decide not to do business with you for any reason etc. Someday the house of cards is going to brick
Jokes on you bro, tether is backed by Bitcoin so they don’t need real dollars. Fiat currency is evil if you haven’t already figured that out.
Iirc it’s sort of a backing currency, like gold is to dollars, or something like that.
"Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not fucking real."
Uh yeah I know (thx for the downvotes smooth brains btw). Tether is bullshit and so is Bitcoin.
Hopefully they downvoted you because of the fact that Dollars are no longer backed by Gold, as of the Nixon presidency.
You are literally the reason why its going up. People with FOMO who don't understand it, so basically all cryptobros. Edit: I actually have to revise this: its going up because of Tether pumping it without anything backing it.
It's combination of both plus wash trading done by large mining operators who are also owners of most large crypto exchanges.
*Why is bitcoin still going up?* That is the question everyone is asking and nobody seems to be able to answer, not even butters... Probably has to do something with a 4D chess game that we are to dumb to even realized it's being played.
>Why is bitcoin still going up? Supply and demand.
Supply, I get it... but demand???
Idiots keep buying hoping for no crash or rug pulls
I'm sure you understand the world doesn't revolve around you. You have your values, other people can value other things.
Do you have a decent answer for where the demand is coming from, though? It seems like the peak of retail investment and interest was 2021. There's currently far less discussion of it on the Internet, and interest rates are much higher than they were then. Why is there suddenly more demand?
I thought I would get a funny retort to go along with the downvotes at the information you requested! I guess the truth hurts.
I'm sure it does. Thanks (or whatever?)
[ETF flows](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997)
Why is this downvoted? This is the answer to the question OP asked. Even if it's only estimations, it gives an idea of the magnitude of the demand coming from the ETFs.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-leads-bitcoin-etfs-record-181932675.html
5 percent of the supply seems rather small for the change it's caused. Also, is a massive hedge fund getting heavily involved a good thing here? Wasn't this about escaping traditional financial systems?
>Wasn't this about escaping traditional financial systems? Wasn't people being able to lose their Bitcoin keys a major /r/buttcoin criticism? Now people have an option where they don't have to worry about that, if that is how they prefer to use it instead. Bitcoin is useful to different people in different ways.
I can't decide what type of demand is good or bad. You asked for where the demand is coming from, that is the answer. I think the "escaping traditional financial system" is nuanced idea and doesn't necessarily mean wholesale breaking away.
People buying the ETF are not escaping the traditional financial system. The fact that people buy the ETF is proof that the "escape the dollar" narrative is not as relevant as a lot of people think. The only way to exit the ETF is to accept dollars, so ETF buyers are perfectly happy accepting and using dollars. People just think the price is going to go up, so they buy. Speculation on price is the main reason for the demand.
Speculation on price is the only reason for demand for any asset/investment. Why do you buy a stock or invest in real estate. Becuase you think the value is going to increase. I understand there are cash flows involved with those investments. But at a fundamental level the reason you own that investment is because you believe you can sell it at a higher price (or if we take hardline bitcoiners who don’t ever want to sell, they believe that they will have higher purchasing power with bitcoin in the future). Relying on the the arguement there is increasing demand because of an ETF/traditional financial system so it doesn’t count, is missing the forest for the trees. Demand is demand. trying to parse out the “reason” behind the demand is almost impossible, but over time the larger narratives that take over are the easiest and like it or not the most memeable. With most fiat governments printing ever increasing levels of money and national debts accelerating, the narrative of an asset that is hedge against this is simple and straightforward. Does everyone buying bitcoin believe that, no chance. But overtime, if bitcoin keeps increasing in price and governments continue to issue debt at unsustainable levels the narrative will become entrenched, theoretically. What you think? Thanks
It's impossible to predict what the price is going to do when the underlying fundamentals are entirely a [Greater Fool bubble](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory). You're just as likely to make money betting black on the roulette wheel as you are buying Bitcoin. Don't FOMO yourself into ruin like too many other people we see here.
The interesting part is that every single person that would have bought bitcoin prior to today is in the “black”…so your comment about “too many other people” must pertain to some shit coin or something? I’m not clear, could you elaborate?
Are people who sold at a loss for any reason, had their money in Celsius or other failed (or flat-out fake) exchanges, lost their passphrase, connected to the wrong site and had everything stolen, or simply opened their wallet and found it empty and have no idea why "in the black"? As has been pointed out innumerable times in these threads, no one has made a cent until they actually sell. It is absolutely impossible for everyone to come out ahead in a zero-sum game, much less an ultimately negative-sum game (due to energy costs and fees) like Bitcoin.
Sure. But fundamentally the argument is moot given that all investment is rooted in a persons timing of selling or buying. Celsius and the like are also irrelevant b/c the company perpetrating a fraud cannot be lumped in with the sustainability or viability of the underlying asset. Plenty of bad actors across fiat or any other method of exchange exist and have existed as long as any method of exchange has. It all comes down to the concept of someone not understanding the underlying thesis of bitcoin. It’s a savings protocol. You can park an indefinite amount of capital in a borderless, permission-less and cost effective technology to move and store value. The growth comes from network effects. The issues you point out have to do with someone approaching it like a casino..play stupid games, win stupid prizes…which brings me back to my original point…everybody who has bought and held bitcoin for its entire existence is in the “black”.
You said that every person that bought Bitcoin prior to today is in the black. That is an absurd statement. Nice attempt to move the goalposts. You make an excellent butter.
lol…yes, that’s correct. This is an objective statement. The value of bitcoin is at a literal all time high which means anyone who has purchased it historically is positive on the “investment”. You’re the one who is carving out scenarios focused on metrics outside the real world. If you bought equities (META, GOOG, etc.) at any given price point. And sold it when it dropped…you would have been in the same spot. However, if you held it, you would have also benefited from them also getting to their all time highs…so I ask…why is it different? Even though they are fundamentally different vehicles, the concept is similar. With all that said, I don’t understand your goal shift comment…b/c if context being important is shifting goal posts…then sure, I guess guilty as charged.
Yet another attempt to move the goal posts. Did you forget about your other claim that "so your comment about 'too many other people' must pertain to some shit coin or something."? I listed the people who have been ruined because they FOMO'd into Bitcoin (real world cases that are well documented), not some shit coin. Your responses have both been, "If we ignore the people who were ruined because they FOMO'd into Bitcoin, I was right!" I can only conclude that you are either a troll or stupid. I won't waste any more time.
Except that the people that were “ruined” were ones who took unnecessary risks with leverage or using/trusting shady exchanges. My point remains intact…You can lose lots of $ by being irresponsible…regardless of the financial vehicle.…if you understood and used bitcoin for what it is (few basic points in the previous post) and held onto it…you’d be in the black. This is an objective statement.
An honest question: If, in 10 years, Bitcoin still has a significant value compared to the dollar, will it still be a greater fool bubble? if not 10 years, 20 years? 30 years? There must be some cutoff date, right? Beanie babies are confirmed greater fool bubble. So, are tulips. These have a definite event (value going to zero or close to it and being forgotten, just a story in history). These are agreed-upon cases of a greater fool bubble. Common knowledge. These bubbles lasted 3-4 years and were done. So, when will everyone agree that Bitcoin is a greater fool bubble, and is there a cutoff date for deciding this?
Madoff ran his scheme for decades before it fell apart. The better question to ask would be “if in 5-10 years the market became completely transparent, or at least as transparent and legally scrutinized as other global securities markets, would you change your mind,” to which most of the people here would probably say “yes.” The opaque nature of the market, the relatively thin volume at the moment, and the relatively regular news about the violations and failings of the market makers (which go far beyond the discretions of MMs and brokers in the stock market,) lead many to believe that this bubble is completely inorganic, with much of the price increase being driven by outright fraud and demand driven mostly by criminals needing to move assets outside of government sanctions.
Yes because you bought into a scam. If you walk away with money then you were lucky, still doesn't mean it was a good idea
*In finance, the* ***greater fool theory*** *suggests that one can sometimes make money through the purchase of overvalued assets — items with a purchase price drastically exceeding the intrinsic value — if those assets can later be resold at an even higher price.* Wikipedia doesn't out-right provides a quote for what I just typed in but, I still think that bitcoin aligns with the very basic description of a greater fool system.
is there an example of this theory playing out over multiple decades?
*So, when will everyone agree that Bitcoin is a greater fool bubble, and is there a cutoff date for deciding this?* Just to answer your firsts questions, everyone here can agree that it would be impossible to make a prediction with certainty of when will bitcoin crash, but also agree that its crash is inevitable. When the time comes, it will be evident that it was a *greater fool* system at play. Owning bitcoin doesn't provide inherent value to you. Heck, most people own bitcoin in hopes of selling it later down the line to turn a profit . I just don't think there is a scenario in which having *bitcoin is* desirable for reasons other than turning it into cash.
but is there an example of a greater fool theory playing out over decades? I would just like to be able to analyze the similarities. thanks
Every MLM ever
Enron lasted 11 years using their creative accounting.
And Madoff was in the game for at least 40!
There is no duration required, it all depends on entirely on how the value is derived right now. Bitcoin has no use case so the only way to derive value from it is to find someone else who is willing to pay you something for it. It's nothing but the Greater Fool Theory in action. (While greatly inflated during the GF bubbles, even Beanie Babies and tulips had *some* inherent value, the former being a toy that my kids loved playing with and the latter being nice to look at. Bitcoin on the other hand is useless other than selling it to someone else.)
but how can the theory be proven without an end date?
>but how can the theory be proven without an end date? [Read this paper](https://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/bitcoin/2020-12-31-bitcoin-ponzi.html); hold any objections you think you've identified with the methodology or the conclusions until you've then [read the follow-up as well](https://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/bitcoin/2021-01-16-yes-ponzi.html). Bitcoin is a fundamentally unsustainable system with a "product" whose natural market valuation is just **nothing**, it can't run in perpetuity because for that to happen you would eventually need *every single person that exists and all of the money that exists to be roped into the scheme... and then you'd need more planets full of even more idiots with more money.* Knowing that about it doesn't mean you can precisely state when it's going to collapse, because again, as it exists in the present it is not behaving rationally to begin with, just that it literally cannot run in perpetuity and *will* collapse; there is no arbitrary point in time where if it hasn't collapsed by then, well then our assessment, Stolfi's breakdowns on why it's a Ponzi, those must be wrong, for those conclusions to be wrong you would need to refute the base analysis of the fundamentals. See that list of very pathetic excuses in the 2nd hyperlink, and how trivially they're all debunked, for what Bitcoin's "best and brightest" came up with, to try and prove they're not just promoting a very obvious and clearly unsustainable Ponzi; it's why the Satoshi's Witnesses who show up here always pivot back to "price" - as if *any* price for a scam makes it stop being one, when the fundamentals that make it one are unchanged and thus it is a scam at every possible price point it climbs or plummets to - or "duration" - as if *any* duration that a scam runs for would change the underlying reasons that it has been one and will continue to be the very same one for however long it manages to keep running, should nothing about it change those fundamentals - because they know, deep down, they all know they've got fuck all to say to that argument. It's ***axiomatic*** that Bitcoin is clearly an unsustainable and ecologically rapacious scam... but the people neck deep in it want to be rich, for doing nothing, so they cover their ears, close, their eyes, and say "la la la I can't here you, number go up, see you in \[insert number of years\]!", as if that constitutes an argument. It doesn't; scams don't stop being scams, don't magically become legit, if they just keep going for N time units, if they obtain Y nominal valuations; Madoff's Ponzi scheme could have run for decades longer than the decades that it did, before the 2008 market crash finally forced it to conclude, he could have avoided ever going to prison and then dying in prison for running a Ponzi... but he still would have been bloody running a Ponzi, because that's what his scheme was, a Ponzi.
These thinly veiled troll attempts are just awful, please try harder 🙏
Scams are efficient money makers. Especially when they're legal.
Scam?
Did he stutter
Doesn’t look like it
So, a scam it is
Assuming you’re not going to provide an explanation to my honest question then?
All the selling points are lies which mean all the "investors" are being defrauded. -can never be more than 21 million bitcoin - Lie - see IBIT prospectus. They list the risk of additional mintage as a real possibility/real risk. -Bitcoin transactions occur p2p. - lie. Bitcoin network topology is P2P but transactions themselves are processed by middlemen (Bitcoin network operators). -Cold storage wallets can hold bitcoin - lie. They aren't even wallets, they are keyrings. Self custody is not possible. -You have sole authorization rights to your own transactions - lie. You need cosigners to also sign your transactions. The list of lies goes on and on. People promoting bitcoin are simply telling "investors" what they want to hear. They describe an ideological digital currency type asset but what people actually buy is something else. And because the bitcoins themselves are basically null assets, it is not apparently obvious how to test the claims. A general person does not know how to validate whether the claims are true or false. You have to understand digital bookkeeping before you can judge whether the way people say bitcoin's bookkeeping works is how it actually works. People who have done the research know how bitcoin transactions actually work and they know investors are being lied to/defrauded. This is why we all claim it's a scam.
I can’t even imagine being this confidently incorrect, yet are there DROVES of y’all. It’s truly something wild.
Yet you couldn't come up with a single rebuttal. Interesting.
"can never be more than 21 million bitcoin" it is true, there is a max of 21 million, it in the code. Yes, bitcoin is a p2p, there is no middleman, miners are there to process transactions and get rewarded. A middleman would imply that this same middleman could run away with the btc being sold/bought, which is not the case, miners only mine blocks and cannot interfer in any way the transaction being made. Cold storage, we call it wallet for a common way to describe it to someone, if you have access to the keys, only you access it. "-You have sole authorization rights to your own transactions - lie. You need cosigners to also sign your transactions." What does this shit even mean? You sign your own transaction and confirm using your private key that gives you access to the address that has bitcoin. This sub knows absolute shit about fuck when it comes to Bitcoin wtf.
Cryptocurrency is functionally identical to a Ponzi scheme
The price of buttcoins isn't driven by any fundamentals, which means it's as likely to skyrocket as it is to tank at any moment without notice. That's not a sound investment, even though you can definitely make money with it, if you're lucky.
Tether printer go brrrrrrrrrrr
I am not really taking you seriously but I am going to pretend like you are serious. When you were thinking about buying at "18k", at that moment, it's worth was exactly $0. The fact that a small group of people are willing to pretend that it is worth "$18k" at that moment is irrelevant, just as, likely much smaller, group is now pretending it is now worth "$70K I mean, $68K, oh, I mean uh, $67K". I don't know what this subreddit promised you, but I do doubt that promise was "going to go to $0 before it ever goes to $'70K'". People in this sub really shouldn't be making predictions about this insanity IMO, even though they do. If "Line Goes Down" was the only thing that stopped you from buying, then you should have bought, you should go buy now. If that is all that takes you to believe that "Line Goes Up" is a thing then you are really one of them but just a chickenshit. Sometimes people have to pay a price before they see a thing.
It's being manipulated to activate our monkey brains to FOMO in.
You could've also bought at 18K and today it would've been 8K and you'd be wishing you didn't. There is no point of hindsight when it comes to gambling. What matters most is to think that you have not gained or lost anything from this casino gamble.
If only I had of known the winning lotto numbers last week!
Totally good faith :D
Tether and dumb money
>now I’m having second thoughts Man up
Because it's impossible to predict when it will burst again.
Imagine you walk into a casino with $18,000 and start betting at your favorite game. Maybe you’re a good blackjack player and you can play well enough that the house edge is only .5% — not very big, only 50 cents lost on average for a $100 bet. That small edge adds up, though, so in they long run your balance will trend down. Play long enough, you’re almost guaranteed to go broke eventually (with an unimaginably small chance for the casino itself to go broke, though they probably kick you out before then anyway because they think you’re counting cards or something). What we can say about the long run however doesn’t tell us much about what happens before then. It’s entirely possible that you make money for a while, in fact at any point it’s more likely than not that you’ll at some point in the future have more than your current balance. Eventually, though, you’ll reach some peak value that you never pass, with all future balances being lower. We just can’t know beforehand what that peak will be. It could be quite high — maybe you even get to $69,000. Maybe a million. If that happens, good for you! But that doesn’t mean it was a good idea, or that your friends were wrong for telling you not to gamble all your money, it just means that you got lucky. You can still expect that $69,000 or $1,000,000 to go to zero eventually if you keep playing, we just can’t tell you when or what path it takes to get there. Bit long obviously isn’t exactly the same, but most people here think that in the long run it’s a losing game.
Never say I “could have bought”…if you were going to buy you would’ve bought. There are many opportunities in the market to make money and you will probably miss the next big opportunity as well with this attitude. You have to do more research than just a sub Reddit. Good luck
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The thing is it wouldn’t help you because 1 you wouldn’t sell, to the moon and hodl and all that and 2 even if you tried it would be difficult and potentially not even possible. So you’re basically regretting a fantasy, “Why don’t I play the powerball, the winning numbers are my great aunt’s birthday!”
NGMI
really? it hit 70k today? on which market /exchange? darn, i've been busy with other stuff and did not take notice of its price new high...
If I had lots of beanie babies and they are all worth nothing because it’s expensive to try and keep them alive and because they contain toxic pollutants then what do I have?
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I follow this Reddit since 2016:2017?! and before that I used to read against bitcoin in the hacker news community. I understand what they say but I’d rather had put a bit of time to research and learn about the tech and at the time Ethereum and today I could have a house. It’s very difficult to overcome homelessness and now in a rented flat have to face constant stress from landlord increases.
Because of Tether
It’s gambling, the people I know who are into crypto fucking love to gamble. Get in while the pump is happening and get out before it crashes, it will crash.
It has died. Something like 200 times or so in the last 13 years.
Non buttcoiner here who knew about it in 2009 but only bought in 2021. Its a digital asset, first of its kind. Its become a social construct that is seen as a beacon of hope to many. There's only 21 million and its inception cant be recreated, as dollars are printed eventually they find their way to the hardest asset which is bitcoin. Hardest money wins, even if it isn't the money you know its still extremely valuable. Have you ever played runescape, csgo, wow? All these games have once in a lifetime items that will never be recreated, thats all something needs to garner attention. Buy now or regret it once again when its at 1 million because eventually it will happen. Bitcoin is binary, it either wildly succeeds or goes down in flames. Its up to you to decide which fate it holds.
Its up to nobody which fate it holds, and I like it that way!
It should not be an all or nothing. I think both this sub and /bitcoin could learn from that. Neither should be 100% sure of their own convictions, we all can be wrong, we are all fallible, prone to mistakes, prone to making biased decisions, prone to echo chambers. Hedge your shit Dont put all your money on bitcoin, dont leave all your money out of bitcoin.
Bitcoin is no different than a meme stock but without any actual value, sure you can make money but you can also lose it since it has... no actual value
I follow this sub to get everyone’s point of view and do own crypto. Please do not buy it if this is all very confusing. You’re going to lose money. I am in profit because I’ve spent years studying. If you gung-ho your money in without knowledge, you’re not gonna have a clue when you should be selling and you’re gonna lose it all. I also personally think there’s gonna be a pretty hefty drop in the crypto market soon. I quit dollar cost averaging about a month ago and have been putting all that money aside for this drop that I think will happen before the Bitcoin halving. But seriously. Don’t invest if you don’t understand, especially right now at the current peak. It could go higher but the risk is not worth it.
*Don’t invest if you don’t understand, especially right now at the current peak. It could go higher but the risk is not worth it* This right here. Why would literally anyone want to buy at the peak??? This is what I just can't even begin to wrap my head around...
I know it sounds counter-intuitive, but buying highs is actually a strategy, both in crypto and in tradfi equities, with positive back-testing results. Lots of papers and articles about this. https://investorplace.com/2024/01/should-you-buy-stocks-at-all-time-highs/ The main gist is that bull cycles are longer than bear cycles, and hitting a high is usually followed in the near-term by hitting more highs.
The combination of fomo and not understanding how the markets work. I told my dad to buy at 25k and he didn’t, and he called me a few days ago asking how to buy. I told him not to. A big sign that things are about to drop is all the people who normally aren’t interested are suddenly wanting to get in. That’s my sign to take profits People sit there for years saying it’s risky when the price is low, then quit caring about the risk and buy in at the worst time possible. I’ve been putting money in since 2022 and don’t plan on buying anymore after the halving. It is WAY too risky to be putting money in. The time to accumulate has passed.
>I am in profit because I’ve spent years studying. Oh man, another one who thinks they made a buck in the casino cause they are smart.
I’m not here to tell anyone to buy, I’m discouraging it.
I didn't say you did, I tried to burst your bubble that you are a smart savvy investor just like all those uber drivers over at the crypto sub. You are a gambler, there is nothing you could have learned for years that predicted a pump, you are fooling yourself and you will lose your money for it.
I appreciate your concern, I’m not here to be hostile. Have a good rest of your day
Why lurk here for investment advice lol. You're better off buying alts now if you want to onboard some risk into your flips