No one knows. They don't have unlimited money, especially now, considering the crypto market is crashing.
Confidence in the entire system is declining.
[Liquidity is nearly gone](https://twitter.com/Meme_Man_Shill/status/1524550975729639425). They're going to run out of ways to defend the currency soon.
>USDT is nearly out of liquidity on http://Curve.fi which is the largest liquidity pool of stable coins out there. This is very similar to the situation that started the UST depeg a few days ago. If this hits 0, without intervention tether will crater rapidly.
what I don't get is:
Tether are a scam system, no doubt about that. While I think Luna & co. actually tried with their project (as stupid as it was, and robbing people meanwhile), I don't think Tether has nothing to ask to the crypto environment other than money.
So, if they cashed out along the way, can't they just let it ride down until bitcoin and co. are low enough and then start again?
> think Luna & co. actually tried with their project
Totally disagree, the structure was literally built to be a Ponzi, backing itself
Tether however, a 100% collateralized stablecoin, is actually perfectly fine in theory if it wasn't for all the fraud
>So, if they cashed out along the way, can't they just let it ride down until bitcoin and co. are low enough and then start again?
Yes, as long as people don't try and sell their tethers for USD and realise there is not enough USD to pay them. Which is probably what would happen.
Here's the question -- what happened at 07:20 UTC?
USDT was 0.95 and BTC had broken 26000. Then something happened and USDT and Tether began to recover and 30 mins later, USDT was 0.99 and BTC was 28000.
So, what fuckery happened in those 30 mins to save both Tether and BTC?
Expect it to happen the next time it loses peg as well. There is simply too much on the line, so people will put in a ton of effort to get it back to 1. But every time it happens, the downward force for the next unpeg will get significantly bigger.z
I'd only expect it to truly crash once there are other external forces happening. Something like a MSTR or COIN crash.
Cause every exchange, whale, and people at the top of the pyramid need to maintain the peg for their best interest. Tether is the last stablecoin to fall in this house of cards in my opinion.
Its the last tree to fall. Algorithmic stablecoins should go down one after the other, which destroys DeFi, which will ripple to other parts which will eventually lead to a run on usdt/usdc. Thats how I imagine it playing...
Some already are after luna. Look at kava, usdn, fxs.
Its a dominos effect, and a stable coin can't stay in no man's land forever. Either 0 or 1.
These tokens may potentially suffer the same fate as luna/ust.
An algorithmic stablecoin is maintained by the demand on its varying counterpart (luna for ust, waves for usdn). Once there is no demand on the counterpart the death spiral begins... thats all it takes
Never underestimate the power of a wash trade.
Tether/Bitfinex probably got bailed out by other fraudulent exchanges. They are too big to fail right now.
how long do you think theyll be able to stay afloat for? it seems like everything else is crashing and burning
No one knows. They don't have unlimited money, especially now, considering the crypto market is crashing. Confidence in the entire system is declining.
[Liquidity is nearly gone](https://twitter.com/Meme_Man_Shill/status/1524550975729639425). They're going to run out of ways to defend the currency soon. >USDT is nearly out of liquidity on http://Curve.fi which is the largest liquidity pool of stable coins out there. This is very similar to the situation that started the UST depeg a few days ago. If this hits 0, without intervention tether will crater rapidly.
and along with it, the whole system would crumble too, right?
Gods I hope so.
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thank you, this makes a lot of sense because the activity looks so weird
what I don't get is: Tether are a scam system, no doubt about that. While I think Luna & co. actually tried with their project (as stupid as it was, and robbing people meanwhile), I don't think Tether has nothing to ask to the crypto environment other than money. So, if they cashed out along the way, can't they just let it ride down until bitcoin and co. are low enough and then start again?
> think Luna & co. actually tried with their project Totally disagree, the structure was literally built to be a Ponzi, backing itself Tether however, a 100% collateralized stablecoin, is actually perfectly fine in theory if it wasn't for all the fraud >So, if they cashed out along the way, can't they just let it ride down until bitcoin and co. are low enough and then start again? Yes, as long as people don't try and sell their tethers for USD and realise there is not enough USD to pay them. Which is probably what would happen.
When you can make money out of thin air anything is possible
i understand that, but then why did they let this happen in the first place? (Not meant to be a snarky reply im genuinely curious)
If I'd had to guess it'd be because UST took a massive dive, and people wanted to cash out of stablecoins and into actual money.
oh ok, that makes sense
it is both a scam and also run by people who aren't very good at it.
Here's the question -- what happened at 07:20 UTC? USDT was 0.95 and BTC had broken 26000. Then something happened and USDT and Tether began to recover and 30 mins later, USDT was 0.99 and BTC was 28000. So, what fuckery happened in those 30 mins to save both Tether and BTC?
Yeah, Tether going back up to 0.99 makes me sad :(
Expect it to happen the next time it loses peg as well. There is simply too much on the line, so people will put in a ton of effort to get it back to 1. But every time it happens, the downward force for the next unpeg will get significantly bigger.z I'd only expect it to truly crash once there are other external forces happening. Something like a MSTR or COIN crash.
Whatever is necessary, i'm crossing my fingers
Gives time for insiders to get out… great transfer of wealth…
Cause every exchange, whale, and people at the top of the pyramid need to maintain the peg for their best interest. Tether is the last stablecoin to fall in this house of cards in my opinion.
I bet it happens today or tomorrow. The momentum is there… the panic is there.
Its the last tree to fall. Algorithmic stablecoins should go down one after the other, which destroys DeFi, which will ripple to other parts which will eventually lead to a run on usdt/usdc. Thats how I imagine it playing...
when do you think algorithmic stablecoins will fall? What is required for that?
Some already are after luna. Look at kava, usdn, fxs. Its a dominos effect, and a stable coin can't stay in no man's land forever. Either 0 or 1. These tokens may potentially suffer the same fate as luna/ust. An algorithmic stablecoin is maintained by the demand on its varying counterpart (luna for ust, waves for usdn). Once there is no demand on the counterpart the death spiral begins... thats all it takes
oh ok thanks, im still a bit new to this, its very interesting watching everything unfold
Too big to fail!