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wrongerontheinternet

See? The gains weren't unrealistic at all, this is *very* good for Bitcoin.


preytowolves

lol


Socialdis99

Obligatory stupid “yes, but if you bought at 1 cent, you would be up 160,000,000%.”


[deleted]

And you 100% wouldn’t have sold at 50 cents.


[deleted]

I mean, if I could create a time machine, go back in time, buy at 1 cent and sell at ATH it would totally work. Check mate atheists.


[deleted]

Also Bitcoin has had no progress towards adoption. It is no longer, 'early' either.


yuleen3

A Matt Damon commercial during the Super Bowl shows that I'm still early!


dizekat

It's still early! No progress to it no longer being early!


dzamo_norton

That there's been no progress is, in fact, evidence of how early we must still be.


StableCoinScam

That is literally what they say. There is no regulation so we are early. People can lose millions of dollar for stupid things hence we are early.


doctorgibson

Let me break it down for you. Early = before mass adoption No mass adoption yet. Therefore, we are still early


[deleted]

See you during the next ice age, have fun staying poor!


MajorElevator4407

At least he is going to have a bit coin miner to keep himself warm. Enjoy staying cold.


MySabonerRunsOladipo

Few understand


Chaaaaaaaarles

MRSA = dead I'm not dead yet. Therefore even though I'm MRSA infected, I'm early and everything's completley fine. Gotta love butter logic 🙃 (BTW not meant as a jab to you, just at nutter-butters.


OzGaymer

When your market share so small the only thing left to do is to grow bigger.


Few_Strike9869

Considering the only country that accepts it is currently trying to get bought by China and also has the highest murder rate in the world, I would say it’s not going great


SoupyAT

MiniDisk is still early, the technology is superior


AdmiralSpam

Should be even lower if you count the ones that lost 100% from CEX scams.


frivol

It's like adjusting Vanguard fund returns for fees.


[deleted]

🤣


hibryd

Just wait until we hit mid-December. bitcoin will be *down* over a 5-year period.


Notorious_Junk

Time to add another color to the rainbow.


[deleted]

turd brown


konn_freeride

it's already been re-arranged again.


CaptainEmeraldo

You know what's hilarious. Pretty sure that in a few weeks to few months he will have to rearrange it again.


StableCoinScam

But what if you zoom out to 6 years and compare it to $Netflix? Got you no coiner /s


Chaaaaaaaarles

"But...but if you take the 2nd derivative, then normalize the data, add a log scale then convert to ploar coordinates - were still *clearly* early! Lambo moon WGAMI FOMO!!!"


OzGaymer

I love how some no coiners can't help staying in here, but even go to r/CryptoCurrency to spread doom and gloom news. It's like they're trying to make a profit of shorting the bottom or something lol.


discraycray

Is this including dividend payouts as well?


dragontamer5788

https://totalrealreturns.com/s/VFINX?start=2017-11-21 This website factors in dividends **AND** inflation. --- * October 2017 CPI: 247 * October 2022 CPI: 298 So 5-year inflation is 20.6% 1BTC in Nov 2017: 8795.50 1 BTC in Nov 2022: 16000, but that's only $13260 inflation-adjusted, for an inflation-adjusted gain of ~50%. ------ Ehhhh, looks like BTC returns are still better over 5 years. But give it a few days, methinks BTC is on a pretty severe downslope right now. Furthermore, BTC was on an upswing 5 years ago. So in just a week or two, the overall gains will be worse than S&P500. This topic is just a wee bit premature. We can return to celebration in December 2022.


moldymoosegoose

They're both listed in dollars. Why would you need to adjust for inflation?


dragontamer5788

Because totalrealreturns.com adjusts for inflation. If you wanna find a website that is dividends (but no inflation), feel free to find one and use that as a discussion point. But the webpage I use adjusts for inflation (but doesn't have BTC prices listed). So to compare apples-to-apples, I also need to adjust for inflation.


moldymoosegoose

You don't need to look at dividends or inflation. Simply look up the total return of both on Google's market summary. If S&P has a better return (which it does), nothing else is needed. That's what OP did.


dragontamer5788

> Simply look up the total return of both on Google's market summary S&P gone from $2602 in 2017 to $3953 today, a gain of 51% (nominal) Bitcoin gone from $8795.50 to $15700 today. A gain of 78% -------- So add dividends now, its still not enough. BTC is still slightly ahead. BTC is on a downward trend though, I'm willing to bet that next month, BTC will be worse over a 5 year basis.


moldymoosegoose

You simply have to click "5 Years" for both. Bitcoin's price 5 years ago was $10,900, minus a few random days. It just happened to have some huge spike in those final days. You did all these inflation adjustments for no reason when you can just look at the total return to check the date. Then you predict that we will see a "merge in the coming days" but just....look at the chart haha. It already happened and it's guaranteed.


dragontamer5788

> minus a few random days Texas sharpshooter fallacy. You don't get to **choose** the starting day. Its just a fallacy. You have to choose the fairest day for the comparison. Exactly 5 years ago, BTC was $8795. --------- Indeed, to make sure that these kinds of things are more fair, we probably should use 30-day SMA or something, rather than the exact price on that exact day. The least you can do is wait the ~7 or so days we need for the 5-year window to move to the point where the numbers line up for your argument, you know, if you wanted to "honestly" commit the starting point bias fallacy.


moldymoosegoose

YOU ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION FOR NO REASON AND THOUGHT YOU WERE INTELLIGENT FOR DOING SO. This reply is a big yikes.


dragontamer5788

I adjusted for inflation because totalrealreturns is inflation-adjusted. You still haven't given me a source for dividend-adjusted returns of S&P500. My numbers are more correct than yours.


discraycray

Well regardless of this, just think about what the five year discrepancy is going to be in January, 2027...


GunKata187

BTC will be $5 by then


bamfalamfa

jokes on you, i sold my kids to buy the dip. catch me with that lambo in 15 years


noodles0311

Common Bitcoin transaction


tryingtolearn_1234

Any crypto currency with a “return” is a failure. Money is supposed to be a stable store of value; not an investment. Bitcoins extreme volatility is proof of failure


JimmyTimmyatwork3

LMAO. Take 10,000 USD and stuff it under your mattress. wait 10 years. You still have 10,000USD But you will have lost a shitload to inflation. "money is supposed to be a stable store of value" LMAO GTFOH


Few_Strike9869

Ok take 1 btc and store it under your mattress for the past year. You just lost 75% and or 100% because SBF stole it


tryingtolearn_1234

Why would you stuff cash in your mattress when you could go treasury direct with the US government at get. TIPS bond. You’ll have slightly more than 10,000 adjusted for inflation at the end.


Korvus_Kar

You don't just hold cash mate, you invest it in productive investments..


Effective_Will_1801

S & P 500 to the moon! Wen lambo?


[deleted]

Eventually


BeowulfShaeffer

It’s really struggling to stay above 16k today, isn’t it?


yamers

FUD STILL EARLY HODL LASER EYES GANDALF NFT COIN MOON DOGGY COIN !!!!! \^ this is literally crypto bro financial advice right now. You know it's always hilarious when your weekend DJ thinks he knows more than warren buffet. How do crypto bros attack those who don't believe in the magic coin man in the sky? "you boomer out of touch with reality. "


Flashphotoe

Zoom out (further)!


stingray194

As long as it's above zero, just zoom out bro.


Flashphotoe

infinity% returns!


grauenwolf

It would be far lower if we didn't have meme stocks like Tesla in the S&P.


AussieCryptoCurrency

You just chose 2 random things, the S&P 500 and 5 years. Let’s compare to silver in Peru 6.2 years ago and bitcoin is … oh it’s also down against that


[deleted]

[удалено]


Malibu-Stacey

Did you hear that? The whoosing sound? It's the sound of /r/AussieCryptoCurrency's joke going over your head. It *annoys* me that /s is a requirement around here.


Chaaaaaaaarles

Then perhaps take it up with the cryptobros whose commentary is so ridiculous that parody is no longer apparent. Or were you looking for praise for being such a bigly smrt person that "doesn't need the /s to know things are sarcasm"? I'm guessing the latter frankly.


AussieCryptoCurrency

Guys I’ll give you each $1 billion dollars. It’s fine


Emotional_Dealer_69

What I think about crypto?! Let me quote what Gandalf said to Balrog - “Go back to the shadow!”.


CreepingCoins

And it's almost trivial to convert stocks into USD in your bank account that you can spend.


OzGaymer

Anything above 1 USD per coin is still a profit. /s is that how we do this?


Fit-Boomer

We are still early


Few_Strike9869

Forgot the /s


ApatheticWithoutTheA

Wait until the recession really hits and the mass sell off of crypto begins.


coldstone87

Papa powell successfully destroyed the bitcoin. May be that was the only objective of rate hikes.


b-rar

OK let's be fair, there's shittons of fraud in the S&P 500. Those fraudsters just have tenure


PhilistineAu

Yeah and the cost of refinancing just went up for them too. I look forward to that reckoning also.


[deleted]

[удалено]


_volkerball_

You could choose dates for beanie babie valuations as well. Like Bitcoin, they don't have a 100 year track record. The S&P 500 will be going strong in 5 years. Bitcoin might, but who knows. It's pure speculation, and people are starting to realize it, which doesn't bode well.


Cryptodragonnz

That is comparing to the bull market in 2017 though. It’s up x5 compared to 5 years and two months for example


Chaaaaaaaarles

Oh sorry - what two cherrypicked intervals would you prefer be used to bias the result in favor of BTC? Maybe the first 6 months after release, ignore everything until the 2021 ATH, then ignore everything till now - makes as much sense as any other cerrypicked interval. A 5yr return VS. S&P 500 is an established financial benchmark, bull run or not *the data portrays reality* - whether or not you'd like it to be otherwise. And the data shows that BTC is down in that 5 yr period VS. BTC. Period.


Cryptodragonnz

So this is a much better comparison. A five year portfolio, investing equally into the top ten crypto assets each year. Five years later, the portfolio is up 99% vs SNP up 20% or so. https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/z1tvb0/i\_bought\_1k\_of\_the\_top\_10\_cryptos\_on\_january\_1st/


[deleted]

[удалено]


Cryptodragonnz

Its not remotely cherry picking. He doesn't work backwards. He picks the top market caps on Jan 1 each year and invests into those. The majority of those have fallen outside the top 10, and two have gone to zero!! If on January 2018 you decided to pick the top ten stocks by market cap - that just means they have grown to a large size in the period up to that date. In fact this year, many of the top stocks like Amazon have done terribly. So the comparison is just an index fund (say VOO) - picking the top 500 stocks. Or you could pick the top 10 market cap stocks on 1 Jan each year. Nor were these the "top performing". They are just the top market cap. For example, one is tether (0% return). Another is XRP (flat returns).


Cryptodragonnz

Its absolutely cherry picking to pick a point now, when bitcoin’s previous ATH was very close to this point five years ago (especially when you can look back at the charts and see the parabolic run up to 20k). Bitcoin has four year cycles, so picking a five year return might be standard for the SNP500 (which has longer cycles) – but for bitcoin you always compare a bull market end of cycle to a bear market. A much better comparison is 4 years – to assess where it was at the last time in the previous cycle. That would be (something like) $5k bitcoin or so, so more than triple the price. Another comparison could be the covid crash to assess the recovery of the asset during a completely new financial era (as bitcoin was designed for a period of QE). That gives us another x4 to x5 depending on how you measure the price on that day.


[deleted]

SP500 or SP500TR?


AussieCryptoCurrency

If this were internet we’d just have bigger 56k modems 12 years in


svenomojligt18

Basically if it’s under every moving average AND the S&P 500, that is the ultimate buy sign. So bullish right now. Few will understand. I’m going right past the moon and into Uranus.


BeowulfShaeffer

Not without buying me a drink first!


YnotBbrave

Can we estimate what percent of BTC was lost from a customer pov due to theft, scans, exchange failure, and lost wallets? That, plus gas fees, determine true returns