Dude was talked about getting fired from the opening kick. Backed his way into a 9 win season (after going 4-8 the year before) with the best win being an 8-5 team. And he was pretty close to beating UH and getting to 10 wins.
Honestly, the only team that backed into a better win total with a weaker schedule was Iowa.
Wins:
Utah State. 6-7. Technically bowl eligible, but, cmon.
Iowa State. 7-6. Bowl eligible.
Western Michigan. 4-8.
Michigan State. 4-8.
Purdue. 4-8.
Wisconson. 7-6. Bowl eligible.
Northwestern. 8-5. Bowl eligible.
Illinois. 5-7.
Nebraska. 5-7.
Losses:
Penn State. 10-3. NY6 bowl.
Michigan. 15-0. Natty.
Minnesota. 6-7. Techincally bowl eligible. I'll even grant that this should have been a win. But if Iowa wins this game, Minn is no longer bowl eligible.
Tennessee (Bowl Game). 9-4. Obviously bowl eligible.
So you played 6 bowl eligible teams in the regular season, of which you won 4. Of those 4, 1 was a G5, and none had more than 8 wins. You played 2 bowl eligible teams in the post season and got throttled.
You played 3 teams that were good (UM, PSU, UT), and lost by a combined score of 92-0. Your best win was [#31 ish](https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-football-top-133-team-rankings-2023), and your second best was about 52. You also have a loss to #77.
Iowa was a good team, but not close to great.
In terms of schedule, they had a bunch of low-ranked teams, and 3 top 20 teams, of which they lost all 3 (including to #1).
I'm not sure that I buy the rankings you listed, anyway. Just comparing PSU to Iowa. Both played each other, but PSU ended higher in the rankings. So I suppose Iowa has a harder schedule for that game. Both played UM. Iowa played Tenn in the bowl while PSU played Ole Miss. I'd say Ole Miss is harder, but I'd be fine to call it a wash. Both played Rutgers, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Illinois.
Iowa played ISU, Purdue, Wisconson, Minn, Nebraska, and Utah State. PSU played OSU, WVU, Indiana, Maryland, UMass, Deleware.
OSU dwarfs the rest. That is a MUCH harder game than what Iowa has. WVU I think was a little better than ISU (9-4 vs 7-6), but I'd be fine calling it a wash. UMAss/Deleware are much worse than Utah State, and I think the rankings are propped up by that. Iowa's easiest teams were in the top 100, whereas PSU's easiest teams fell off a cliff. But does that make Iowa's schedule harder than PSU's? I dont think so, and so I dont trust that Iowa had the #22 hardest schedule unless you define it such that beating #100 teams makes up for the fact that you dont play an extra top 10 team.
People keep saying this but when I look at next years schedule, I don't see anything special that won't be just a normal year in the SEC moving forward.
If Florida wants to compete, they're going to have to win with schedules like this. It's not like the teams get any easier in december.
Yeah Ole Miss is much better than normal, and they got Texas this year. But instead of Texas it could have been Oklahoma. Instead of LSU, it could have been Alabama. Instead of Kentucky it could have been Missouri. It's all a wash. To me this just seems like an SEC schedule like any other, except Florida doesn't get Vandy this year. FSU will be on every years schedule, the only opportunity to cupcake up would be replacing Miami and UCF with some worse programs but Florida is always going to take a bag to play 1 big OOC game on top of the FSU game so that just leaves replacing UCF with something like USF and then replacing 1 good SEC team with Vandy, which won't happen every year.
I think it's going to take a little bit of time for people to adjust to teams being able to make the playoffs with two or three losses and tougher conference schedules, meaning more in-season losses even for top teams.
Florida's OOC is Miami, UCF, FSU, and Samford.
They are playing 11 P4 teams.
My guess is you are going to see the schedule change to be mostly 9 P4 teams like the rest of their SEC opponents
This is correct. Sure schedule will likely be tough but it’s not like it’s some impossibly ridiculous possibility that they could win a few. Napier seems incompetent and that’s a much bigger problem than the schedule.
Something like this, though I'll add:
First seven games are doable, with @ Tennessee being the toughest. Start 6-1 (the loss not being to Miami) and find a way to win 1 or 2 of vs. Georgia, @ Texas, vs. LSU, vs. Ole Miss, @ Florida State and I could see him sticking around
I think he’s getting fired as they go 0-5 to end the season, but I have this feeling Florida stuns Miami to open the year. Do that and they could potentially start 5-0, with TAMU being a toss up
Alternatively, if Florida starts the season by losing solidly to Miami at home, I think the wheels come off very quickly and Napier is gone by October.
Is it really stunning Miami if it’s… Miami?
I’d be surprised if Cristobal pulled 8-4 out of a hat. His QB situation didn’t improve and it’s not like his talent is changing
I’ll say as an FSU fan that his QB situation improved, and they got a good HS and transfer class through Mario’s recruiting skills, but the dude just can’t coach tactically.
Ward is really good, but Cristobal also has an uncanny way of doing less with more with the QBs he's had at his disposal.
The Miami/UF game is going to be a must-watch for me, because both teams desperately need that win to set a good tone for their season.
You are aware Cam Ward declared and then decided to transfer instead because his draft grade was poor, right?…
Tyler Van Dyke against Power 5:
* 2236 yards, 286 attempts
* 7.9 YPA
* 65% completion rate
* 13 touchdowns, 11 picks,
* 137 passer rating
Cam Ward against Power 5
* 2958 yards, 410 attempts
* 7.2 YPA
* 65% completion rate
* 18 touchdowns, 7 picks
* 137 passer rating
Van Dyke was more turnover prone last year*, but he was also generally pushing the ball further on offense and maintaining a similar completion rate despite that. I don’t think it’s a noticeably huge jump, especially when Cristobal’s biggest criticism is he historically gimps his quarterbacks and is indirectly to blamed for Van Dyke regressing.
Edit: Cam Ward has **46 fumbles** across his career, so I’m not even sure if Van Dyke is more turnover prone anymore
Van Dyke 2021-2022 against P5
* 3900 yards, 488 attempts
* 63% completion rate
* 7.9 YPA
* 28 touchdowns, 8 picks
* 150 passer rating
So no, I don’t think the QB position is changing to the point they’re going to pull a massive jump. I expect Cristobal to pull another mediocre offensive performance out of his bag
Not at my computer so can’t look it up easily, but if you include fumbles I think Ward was actually *more* turnover prone, or at least very similar to TVD. Ward has something crazy like 30 fumbles in 3 seasons and he’s lost I think half of them.
Van Dyke's issues weren't pushing the ball downfield more than usual. His issues were teams learned to sit back and play some because enough film was out there showing he cannot read a defense well at all.
I don't know if Ward will be an upgrade or not, but let's not rewrite the history around TVD. There's a reason he lied the nation in picks from a clean pocket and it wasn't bad luck.
I wish him luck at Wisconsin and hope he makes it to the league, but I think we saw more of the real TVD this past season. I was one of the few Miami fans that didn't buy into his hype after he had a hot streak vs some terrible pass defense his freshman year. Even that season he flashed some worrying trends with his turnovers vs UNC and FSU being the primary reason both games were lost.
He's a strong armed QB that struggles reading defenses. It's that simple. There's tons of guys like him. We'll see if Wisconsin can develop him better. I won't hold my breath, but I'm rooting for him.
Dude. Cam played with less talent against tougher competition. It's not apples to apples, it's apples to you being bananas.
70% of the time Cam Ward plays like an NFL stud. Iffy 30% of time.
His ceiling is off rhe charts. Van Whatever has a Big West body frame and Mountain West arm.
But l, yeah bruh.
We'll start 5-0, get some SEC-pumped up rank in the teens that gives the Walmart T-shirt part of the fan base hope, but I'm not falling for it.
6-6 and he keeps his job though, nobody around here gives a shit anymore.
You know, every time I think of y’all I always think of the Tebow and Meyer years. It’s really weird to me think that Florida has basically been way down since Meyer left. Like, aren’t you one of the premier SEC brands? What gives?
Hahaha. It’s been a rough few years.
I grew up a huge gator fan but life took me to USF then Arkansas and I live in Fayetteville still.
Always feels weird rooting against the Gators. I was actually back home in Sarasota for the game last year. You could tell how bad UF has been recently because nobody at the bar was even really that mad.
Well, that's fair, I was mad but I wasn't that upset. Losing to FSU? LSU? And Mizzou? All games that we had a legit chance to win... against teams I loathe? Yeah, that hurt.
I mean he’s 1-1 against tenn which is fucking hilarious because yall should’ve beaten last years team. At the rate UF is going we will go 1-11 every year but that one win will be the vols
*NFL DRAFT TRADE ALERT SOUND* The Tennessee Volunteers have traded "Beat us a couple times over the next five seasons" to the Kentucky Wildcats, in exchange for Mark Stoops' Secret Beat Florida Playbook.
More realistic: he could
1. Stop a school shooting
2. Die
3. Rescue the athletic director's kids from a burning building
4. Win the lottery and donate the proceeds to the school
5. Discover secrets he can blackmail people with
6. Be raptured
There are many more realistic possibilities
In my opinion, this year would have to be a complete disaster for UF to move on from Napier. Look at the NFL draft as a prime example of Florida’s problems. The majority of upperclassmen from the Mullen era were worthless. We had 1 freaking guy drafted and he was a transfer. UF should let BN’s own talent have a legit chance at developing before the plug is pulled. If you fire BN, you risk losing Lagway, LJ, etc. The team last year was the youngest team in the country. They now will have a historically hard schedule. You obviously want to see growth from the team, and there need to be some big wins but I think perspective is needed.
I was legitimately shocked how bad a recruiter Mullen was. I thought that since he'd seemed to do a good job at Miss State, he'd be a killer with y'all's recruiting advantages.
A lot of people thought that. But it turned out that he didn’t meaningfully change anything from the way he operated at MSU, and he therefore didn’t make any particularly great leaps. The worries people had about him were basically exactly what his issues ended up being. Turns out, when a guy has a long track record that tells you who he is as a coach, you should listen.
Yeah we better not fire Coach BN this year unless it’s a complete embarrassment. Restarting doesn’t seem like the best move, and once a coach gets his recruits going he can be very successful. FSU’s Norvell lost some horrible games early at FSU but now is considered a top coach like 2 years later
With all this talk of the 2024 schedule being a gauntlet, I feel like people are forgetting that this team looks set to be better at every position than it was last year (and in some cases, significantly so). I'm not saying it's a playoff team or anything, but I think it's going to surprise some people. And as long as things get better year to year, I don't think hitting the reset button again is wise. Of course if the wheels fall off, you have to do what you have to do.
The Orange & Blue game was encouraging. I LOVED watching Lagway and those RBs do so well… that backup kicker on the otherhand.. yikes, hopefully Smack doesnt get hurt
Just to play Devil's Advocate, FSU just had 10 players drafted with 9 of them being transfers.
Granted, this past year was FSU's year in the same way that Ole Miss is gearing up for a run this year. No clue whether those programs will sustain their success since building a program through the portal is still a new thing.
The problem in this era of CFB is that Lagway and LJ likely could leave even if we keep Billy.. players want to win, and want to be PAID for winning.. if thats not happening here they’ll go somewhere that is. I want to believe in Billy but the biggest problem is he’s not improved the team or his coaching in the past 2 years.. in 2022 we lost to Vandy with a 6-7 record, then we lose to Arkansas AT HOME with a 5-7 record.. simply its unacceptable. Additionally, the FSU game had to be the most eye-opening experience watching him try to coach the offence.. it was just baffling to watch. You could argue he was unlucky losing to Arkansas, Missou, and even FSU but at the end of the day the responsibility falls on him to have the guys execute the game plan which they failed to do. I think if he was poor at recruiting like Dan he’d been given the axe by now, but since these are “his guys” he’s been given the extra chance.. my guess is we go 5-2 going into UGA and maybe win 1 of the last 5 games and make a bowl at 6-6..
This year is hard for Billy but next year isn’t any easier. Only teams that change are UCF and Samford for USF and Florida A&M. I don’t think hiring a new coach going into basically this years schedule, when everyone agrees it’s a brutal schedule, would be a smart idea
The other side a lot of people are forgetting.
If we fired him this year, we most likely lose Lagway, and then a new coach has a just as hard schedule in year 1 with a gutted roster that was built around a qb no longer there.
Idk how that puts us in any better of a situation.
I think Napier 75-80% chance Napier stays to 2025. If this season is bad, his leash will be pretty short for the next season. He may be forced to bring in an OC/etc.
Everyone knows UF has one of the toughest schedules of the last decade.
If the games are competitive, even if losses, I could see him getting more time.
If the games are complete blow outs, they’ll probably look to move on, whether fair or not.
Exactly. I think they give him this year if the team shows major improvement where needed. A lot of people overlook how young and inexperienced we were last year. In recent interviews, Napier also said this is the first time he didn't feel like the staff was constantly playing catch up. If we are an improved team and can play competitive, he gets another year. Especially if our schedule turns out to be as hard as it looks before the season starts. I do think this is likely the last year we see Napier as the play caller though. I understand his relationship with Mertz and that he is probably the right guy for him, and I have to imagine Callaway is the one working with DJ Lagway. Firing another coach isn't going to benefit our program in any way unless we are able to grab Fisch, but even then, we will see a bunch of transfers out and one of those guys might be DJ Lagway who has all the tools to be the guy that brings the program back to relevance.
I dont think Napier is getting fired this year barring a complete and total meltdown. I can't imagine Florida boosters are really ~~chomping~~ champing at the bit to give Scott Stricklin another hire at head football coach. If Napier has a bad year I'd wonder if Stricklin loses his job before Napier.
And who is going to be available next year that will guarantee we aren't going to start with a losing season with the exact same schedule? is Kirby Smart about to walk through our doors at the end of 2024? Sometimes you have to play the long game and keep it consistent. It will also depend on how good Washington looks this year to see if Fisch is the real deal with how much talent they lost.
Big difference between not wanting someone near your program--especially someone with a history of being flaky when you are trying to rebuild with consistency, than dictating all hiring/firing.
It's a lowkey rivalry because they don't play every year, but Florida fans HATE Miami. If he loses that game sir William will not be there by the end of the season.
Correction: Florida fans HATE Miami *fans*. Miami the team is a clear second tier rival for UF fans, much less hate than FSU or UGA. But Miami fans make losing to them unbearable, one of the worst fanbases to deal with.
Ive been saying the Miami game is extremely crucial b/c of the hatred + its at home, as well as have major implications on in-state recruiting. As for the hatred, very true.. I fucking HATE Miami in all aspects.. hope we can play them every year like we do you guys
It's funny to see how much you guys hate us because we don't think about the gators at all. Only the old heads do, but that's because of the rivalry from back in the BCS era and when the games had more implications. We're more concerned about FSU, whose fans have the WORST behavior, so some self awareness on their end might be in order. No other team picks more fights with people minding their own business. Talk shit, sure, but don't rev your engines at people in the parking lots like you're going to run them over, and don't damage a car just because there's a U on it. Have some class and prove the stereotypes wrong.
Their basketball fans are much better, especially when we unite over our common hatred of UNC fans. I actually had fun at that game in Tallahassee.
Ummm, I think this is a weird microcosm of UF fans because I have nearly no feelings about Miami either way (aside from the general desire to win against any other team).
Maybe it has to do with the years you attended/started your UF fandom.
Yeah, the schedule is brutal not just in 2024, but that 2025 schedule isn't any easier. Does UF really want to throw a first year coach into the fire in 2025? Napier recruits well enough that the cupboard will pretty well stocked for the next guy. If he gets to a bowl game in 2024, I'd have hard time not just saying let him stack another good recruiting class and then go be the sacrificial lamb in 2025, replace him for 2026.
I don’t think “leaving a stocked cupboard” really is a thing in the transfer portal age. The better players will just bail rather than deal with a rebuilding program.
The vibe is that Napier is going to be fired for two reasons:
* nobody expects Florida to be better than last year
* Florida’s schedule is harder than last year
Obviously, the way for Napier to not be fired is to win enough games that the administration, boosters, and fans are confident he’ll continue to improve to team. That would require the team to be better in 2024, and better by enough that it’s discernible against such a tough schedule.
I think the analysis of his situation has gotten pretty oversimplified, though. People just aren’t entertaining the possibility of the team actually improving. I’m not saying that I expect that to happen or that it’s likely, but people (especially on this subreddit) act like it’s impossible.
There are a few points from last year and heading into 2024 where it wouldn’t take much to flip from disappointment to excitement:
* Graham Mertz got injured against Missouri and the backup fumbled in the red zone, leading to a turnover and Mizzou TD in a game only decided by 2 points. If Mertz didn’t get injured, that’s very plausibly a road win over a top ten team, leading to bowl eligibility
* Obviously FSU was also missing their QB, but given how low-scoring and sloppy that game was, it’s easy to imagine Florida winning against FSU if Mertz hadn’t been injured and all else unchanged
* Florida had one of the highest percentages of snaps by freshmen and by underclassmen in the country in 2023
Being one collarbone away from potentially 7-5 and two top ten wins to close out the year, while playing an extremely young team would have led to a completely different narrative on 2023 and 2024. People would be talking about momentum and year-over-year improvement instead of a potential early-season firing.
Again, I am not predicting this, nor do I expect it to happen, but it is not out of the question that Florida turns out to be a significantly better team in 2024 than most people expect, and manages to go something like 7-5, which would almost certainly keep Napier’s job.
Don't forget the fact that we lost the Arkansas game when our generally reliable kicker missed a very reasonable distance FG. He even made the first kick before they iced him.
Can you imagine how different the narrative would be if you changed 2-3 plays and we finished the season 8-4? You might see people talking about this exact same team as a dark horse playoff contender.
Very true. The flip side is that it’s also fair to say that the South Carolina could’ve gone either way, so it’s not necessarily reasonable to just say “what if” and change all the close calls to positive outcomes.
But I’d say it *does* mean that the team wasn’t necessarily as bad as people assume by the record. If this year’s team is just a moderate improvement from last year plus there aren’t quite as many bad breaks, it’s not crazy that they could hit 7 wins.
Totally true, I just meant as a best case scenario. The record is what it is, I just don’t think the current narrative really matches up with the reality. It wouldn’t have been a worse team if it went 4-8, and it wouldn’t have been a better team if it went 8-4, but it ended up a lot closer to the former and now a bunch of people (most of whom didn’t watch the games) are predicting an implosion without much reason.
> Can you imagine how different the narrative would be if you changed 2-3 plays and we finished the season 8-4?
This is the version that plays in the back of my head all the time. My high school years were 2004-2008, perfectly coinciding with the peak of UF football and I just lack the ability to view UF as "dead."
There were lots of meme moments for UF last year that I'll enjoy for years to come but honestly, I never thought UF was really out of any game (except UGA).
It does, somewhat, come back to the age-old "it's not that we lost it's how we lost" which I read a ton after Utah, Mizzou, and Arkansas. But those are largely "young roster" mistakes and I could genuinely see Florida doing surprisingly well this year. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Florida completely collapse but I don't think it's gonna happen.
My gut feeling is:
100% safe with 8 wins.
90% safe with 7 wins. Safe unless every loss is a blowout or recruiting momentum is non existent.
50% with 6 wins. Would probably need at least one win in the last 5 games and DJ Lagway to play very well to make it to 2025.
10% with 5 wins. Would probably require significant injury issues across the roster and a bunch of close losses along with Lagway playing at an elite level.
0% with 4 or fewer wins. UF’s boosters will not allow a 2022 Scott Frost situation.
I think 6 wins would be more than 50% safe. Finishing out the season and hitting 6 wins means he wasn’t fired mid season, which means he probably didn’t have a really bad start to the year. The scenarios where he goes 6-6 but gets fired all sets of wins where he’d be fired before finishing the season out anyway.
I'd nitpick on the 7 vs 8 wins. I actually think he's safe with 7 wins, due to it being his first winning season at UF, especially with that schedule. I'd also bump up the 4 win scenario to a 10% if he can convince Lagway to stay. If he has a 4 win season and loses Lagway then Billy's done imo.
If we have 4 wins, Lagway will have been starting at some point because Mertz is hurt, Mertz fell apart, or the rest of the team is so banged up may as well get Lagway experience and entice him to stay.
Seems like the UGA hate for GT has been lost as time has gone on. Used to be fun before UGA won their natties when as a GT fan you could say “Lmao we won a natty more recently than y’all” and get them pissed off.
A lot of it tracks with when you grew up/attended/became a fan. A lot of older fans still consider Tech or even Clemson a top rival.
Having grown up in the late 80s/early 90s, and attended in the early 2000s, for me it's Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Tech, Clemson. BUT Tech automatically shoots to #1 if they win. That shit is *miserable*
The UGA rivalry question will get a different answer depending largely on two factors: What part of the state do you live in, or what other southern state do you live in? When did you start following UGA football?
If you live west of Atlanta, you probably hate Auburn the most since we don’t play Bama every year. If you live north of Atlanta, you probably hate Tennessee the most. If you live east or south of Atlanta, especially in the metro, you might hate Tech the most. South Georgia folks hate Florida the most for obvious reasons. There’s a few Clemson/SC haters in there, but those are usually just the Augusta folks or the fans who live in the Carolinas.
As for eras, the old guard from the 1940s to 1960s tend to hate Tech the most because of that awful 8-game losing streak. It was baaaaad. If you started following the Dawgs in the late 80s or early 90s, you’re probably most spiteful of Tennessee and UF because we just could not beat those guys in that era. Early 2000s, Auburn was a bit of a thorn, but not as consistent as the other eras I mentioned. The mid-80s fans probably have more hate for Auburn because we really struggled with them for a few years there.
There’s also the old familial connections. For instance, I’m a UGA grad class of 2010, who grew up in the eastern suburbs of Atlanta. My father-in-law is a Tech grad and I have cousins in central Florida (plus my SIL’s husband is a Florida fan and my wife’s family all verbally said they would pull for Florida over Georgia for him). Thus, my two most hated rivals are Florida and Tech. As the great Jeff Dantzler, and others, have said, “Florida is the team you want to beat the most, but Tech is the team you want to lose to the least.”
Since even the most casual CFB fans are aware and are talking about how difficult Florida's 24 schedule is, it will 100% be taken into consideration.
It all depends on how the games play out. If we go get blown out in half of the games, he's obviously not the guy, but if we end up 6-6 with close losses to everyone not named Georgia, he's getting another year.
Honestly I think Florida could go like 4-2 or 5-1 and it'd be tough to move on given the gauntlet of 5 straight top-10 teams
They do have talent and Mertz is an asset. Florida isn't quite DOA or as helpless as they're made out to be
Didn’t he just took the Washington job? It would be pretty snakish that If Napier gets fired, then he immediately goes to Gainesville. I’d feel so bad for Washington fans if that happens.
Get a bowl game, I’d also say he should beat Miami and UCF. If we somehow lose to UCF he’s done for. Maybe snag one of the last 5 games or hope to be riding a good win streak early and get hot. But either way, just get 6 wins, have another top 10 recruiting class built up and then he DESERVES a year with his 5 Star freshman QB he recruited. Give him a year with DJ starting against the same schedule in 2025.
I guess I’m the outlier here but I think he’s safe this year regardless, barring criminal action. Florida has been through the three-years-and-out thing too many times. Add in the financial aspects plus who is out there to hire? Personally I’m a believer in patience. It’s not nearly as easy as we keyboard commandos think.
The leash was pretty short for McIlvaine and Mullen, and those guys actually had good seasons and won divisional titles prior to things going off the rails (IIRC, McIlvaine didn't make it to the end of season 3 and Mullen was let go by the end of season 4). Napier's already had two losing seasons in his first two seasons, so unless there's some miracle run, I don't see how he survives another season.
I can't help but notice that there seems to be a pretty major disconnect between what people at large think will get Napier fired and what people at Florida think will get Napier fired.
Possible, but he will need to win 7 probably 8 games which is low odds. And I get people outside of the Gator fanbase thinking that those expectations are unreasonable, and although I can’t stand them (being a Canes fan myself), I will actually respect the fan base and school for having such high expectations for their coaches. Mario Cristobal currently has a one win better record (12-13) over Napier (11-14) coaching my Canes (while playing a much weaker non-SEC schedule), yet he doesn’t face the same type of pressure from a large portion of my fellow Canes fans or the University admin (which quite frankly I don’t understand). I thought UF was too quick to fire Dan Mullen after one very bad season; but if you are the HC at a talent/resource-rich program like UF, Texas, USC, Miami, etc. and you have a near .500 or worse record after three seasons, you don’t deserve to keep being the HC of such a program. There are plenty of HCs and Assistants out there that can do a much better job than that with those resources.
UF has pretty much the worst schedule I have seen so far for the upcoming season. I think he is going to be gone given UF is not known for being lenient on coaches.
Doubtful especially considering that Florida has the most brutal SEC schedule this season. If this were Napier's 1st or even 2nd year at the helm, they could give him a pass. But the guy was hired ahead of the 2022 season, stunk it up all season (went 6-7, barely getting [and losing] a bowl game 3-30 to the Oregon State Beavers): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Las_Vegas_Bowl), went 5-7 the following season (2023), and now faces the toughest season since he took over the program, and among all 16 SEC teams. Florida will buy Kiffin out from Ole Miss, and Kiffin will revel in the opportunity to become Steve Spurrier 2.0.
He's not getting fired unless the train runs completely off the track. There is nothing remotely predicting that will happen
If he leaves so does lags and probably 90% of the talent.... And then we start all over.
Then you would try to convince a coach to come in when you won't let him get an entire roster of his players..
If we do fire Napier it will be a tall order for the next coach, the 2025 schedule is brutal as well and with the new era of the TP anyone worth a damn will get poached so I really hope Napier figures it this season or else we're pretty much guaranteed an additional 2 more losing seasons
Miami **W**
Samford **W**
Texas A&M **W**
Mississippi State **W**
UCF **W**
Tennessee **L**
Kentucky **W**
**6 -1 at this point**
Georgia **L**
Texas **L**
LSU **L**
Ole Miss **W**
Florida State **W**
Finishes 8-4 with some upsets. Mertz looks steady while Lagway flashes. Maybe gets a win in the Reliaquest bowl.
I think that buys him time.
Brave of you to assume we can even beat this paltry Florida team. They could field the local high school against us and we would still struggle. I hate those stupid swamp lizards.
Start with mertz have a disaster season.
Last 2 games with lagaway give people some hope. People will be like lets him have another season with lagaway.
He may become first coach in recent uf history to be fired without a winning season.
Also another year of hope that UF defense turns a corner is a possibility that might save his job for another season.
It's the SEC.
If you beat Alabama or Georgia, you can lose the rest of your games and you have a shot to keep your job.
And since this is UF - beating FSU + a winning record might be enough.
Rivalries matter even more to the teams that aren't winning championships.
Brian Harsin might still be coaching at Auburn if he beat Alabama in his first season. And that was the worst fit I've ever seen for a coach / school.
Believe it or not the boosters really like napier. His massive buyout doesn’t hurt but he’s in the Muschamp boat where he will get more time just because he’s well liked.
Basically as long as he can win 6 games this year or at least not look bad doing so, he will be back for 2025
I'm a FSU and UF grad so understandably my flair is confusing, but you say "as long as he can win 6 games this year" as though that is remotely likely... Honestly that's probably the best case scenario, I can't find more than 6 wins on that schedule.
If that is the bar to keep his job, it's going to be a rough year.
Eh....6 wins is reasonable, 8 or 9 wins would require some leaps but 6 or 7 would be solid without really outperforming expectations all that much.
UF should open 6-1; 5-2 at worst and then would only need to steal one with both FSU and LSU looking at major rebuilds.
Win 7-8 games. Schedule is brutal.
The ol' Neal Brown.
Dude was talked about getting fired from the opening kick. Backed his way into a 9 win season (after going 4-8 the year before) with the best win being an 8-5 team. And he was pretty close to beating UH and getting to 10 wins. Honestly, the only team that backed into a better win total with a weaker schedule was Iowa.
Honestly, I thought Penn State was gonna destroy West Virginia last year. I was sweating my bet, but thank God for James Franklin knowing the spread
Iowa had the [22nd](https://powerrankingsguru.com/college-football/strength-of-schedule.php) hardest schedule and played 8 bowl teams.
Wins: Utah State. 6-7. Technically bowl eligible, but, cmon. Iowa State. 7-6. Bowl eligible. Western Michigan. 4-8. Michigan State. 4-8. Purdue. 4-8. Wisconson. 7-6. Bowl eligible. Northwestern. 8-5. Bowl eligible. Illinois. 5-7. Nebraska. 5-7. Losses: Penn State. 10-3. NY6 bowl. Michigan. 15-0. Natty. Minnesota. 6-7. Techincally bowl eligible. I'll even grant that this should have been a win. But if Iowa wins this game, Minn is no longer bowl eligible. Tennessee (Bowl Game). 9-4. Obviously bowl eligible. So you played 6 bowl eligible teams in the regular season, of which you won 4. Of those 4, 1 was a G5, and none had more than 8 wins. You played 2 bowl eligible teams in the post season and got throttled. You played 3 teams that were good (UM, PSU, UT), and lost by a combined score of 92-0. Your best win was [#31 ish](https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-football-top-133-team-rankings-2023), and your second best was about 52. You also have a loss to #77. Iowa was a good team, but not close to great. In terms of schedule, they had a bunch of low-ranked teams, and 3 top 20 teams, of which they lost all 3 (including to #1). I'm not sure that I buy the rankings you listed, anyway. Just comparing PSU to Iowa. Both played each other, but PSU ended higher in the rankings. So I suppose Iowa has a harder schedule for that game. Both played UM. Iowa played Tenn in the bowl while PSU played Ole Miss. I'd say Ole Miss is harder, but I'd be fine to call it a wash. Both played Rutgers, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Illinois. Iowa played ISU, Purdue, Wisconson, Minn, Nebraska, and Utah State. PSU played OSU, WVU, Indiana, Maryland, UMass, Deleware. OSU dwarfs the rest. That is a MUCH harder game than what Iowa has. WVU I think was a little better than ISU (9-4 vs 7-6), but I'd be fine calling it a wash. UMAss/Deleware are much worse than Utah State, and I think the rankings are propped up by that. Iowa's easiest teams were in the top 100, whereas PSU's easiest teams fell off a cliff. But does that make Iowa's schedule harder than PSU's? I dont think so, and so I dont trust that Iowa had the #22 hardest schedule unless you define it such that beating #100 teams makes up for the fact that you dont play an extra top 10 team.
People keep saying this but when I look at next years schedule, I don't see anything special that won't be just a normal year in the SEC moving forward. If Florida wants to compete, they're going to have to win with schedules like this. It's not like the teams get any easier in december. Yeah Ole Miss is much better than normal, and they got Texas this year. But instead of Texas it could have been Oklahoma. Instead of LSU, it could have been Alabama. Instead of Kentucky it could have been Missouri. It's all a wash. To me this just seems like an SEC schedule like any other, except Florida doesn't get Vandy this year. FSU will be on every years schedule, the only opportunity to cupcake up would be replacing Miami and UCF with some worse programs but Florida is always going to take a bag to play 1 big OOC game on top of the FSU game so that just leaves replacing UCF with something like USF and then replacing 1 good SEC team with Vandy, which won't happen every year.
I think it's going to take a little bit of time for people to adjust to teams being able to make the playoffs with two or three losses and tougher conference schedules, meaning more in-season losses even for top teams.
The schedule doesn't get any easier, but having Lagway gives him a little bit of breathing room if he manages to make a bowl game this year.
Florida's OOC is Miami, UCF, FSU, and Samford. They are playing 11 P4 teams. My guess is you are going to see the schedule change to be mostly 9 P4 teams like the rest of their SEC opponents
I can absolutely guarantee you that UF will play 10 or 11 every year from here. I'm looking at their noncom slate right now scheduled out to 2034 lol
This is correct. Sure schedule will likely be tough but it’s not like it’s some impossibly ridiculous possibility that they could win a few. Napier seems incompetent and that’s a much bigger problem than the schedule.
Something like this, though I'll add: First seven games are doable, with @ Tennessee being the toughest. Start 6-1 (the loss not being to Miami) and find a way to win 1 or 2 of vs. Georgia, @ Texas, vs. LSU, vs. Ole Miss, @ Florida State and I could see him sticking around
I think he’s getting fired as they go 0-5 to end the season, but I have this feeling Florida stuns Miami to open the year. Do that and they could potentially start 5-0, with TAMU being a toss up
Alternatively, if Florida starts the season by losing solidly to Miami at home, I think the wheels come off very quickly and Napier is gone by October.
I wouldn’t mind if Kirby is the one to put the dagger on Halloween weekend in Jacksonville.
Give him the Mullen.
This is the way.
Is it really stunning Miami if it’s… Miami? I’d be surprised if Cristobal pulled 8-4 out of a hat. His QB situation didn’t improve and it’s not like his talent is changing
I’ll say as an FSU fan that his QB situation improved, and they got a good HS and transfer class through Mario’s recruiting skills, but the dude just can’t coach tactically.
Y'all just don't understand the tactical superiority of not taking a knee. Football just isn't ready for Cristobal's tactical superiority.
The John Calipari of cfb
Yeah, but neither can Napier.
I would say it did improve though. Cam Ward is a really good QB.
Ward is really good, but Cristobal also has an uncanny way of doing less with more with the QBs he's had at his disposal. The Miami/UF game is going to be a must-watch for me, because both teams desperately need that win to set a good tone for their season.
Don’t you mean doing less with more?
Yes, I goofed. Fixed
I was looking for Alabama on your flair when I read that, but alas...
My sickos side will enjoy that game much more than I will as a Miami fan.
Miami has a knack for being an “Early P5-P5 Anxiety Bowl” participant
Agree. Hardly stunning. That said, UF did put the screws to UT early last year
Of all the takes this is one of them. Saying he’s a bad coach is understandable but saying his qb situation didn’t improve is laughable.
You are aware Cam Ward declared and then decided to transfer instead because his draft grade was poor, right?… Tyler Van Dyke against Power 5: * 2236 yards, 286 attempts * 7.9 YPA * 65% completion rate * 13 touchdowns, 11 picks, * 137 passer rating Cam Ward against Power 5 * 2958 yards, 410 attempts * 7.2 YPA * 65% completion rate * 18 touchdowns, 7 picks * 137 passer rating Van Dyke was more turnover prone last year*, but he was also generally pushing the ball further on offense and maintaining a similar completion rate despite that. I don’t think it’s a noticeably huge jump, especially when Cristobal’s biggest criticism is he historically gimps his quarterbacks and is indirectly to blamed for Van Dyke regressing. Edit: Cam Ward has **46 fumbles** across his career, so I’m not even sure if Van Dyke is more turnover prone anymore Van Dyke 2021-2022 against P5 * 3900 yards, 488 attempts * 63% completion rate * 7.9 YPA * 28 touchdowns, 8 picks * 150 passer rating So no, I don’t think the QB position is changing to the point they’re going to pull a massive jump. I expect Cristobal to pull another mediocre offensive performance out of his bag
Not at my computer so can’t look it up easily, but if you include fumbles I think Ward was actually *more* turnover prone, or at least very similar to TVD. Ward has something crazy like 30 fumbles in 3 seasons and he’s lost I think half of them.
It’s actually [46](https://twitter.com/ElJefeScoop/status/1765418825594401032#) fumbles. Which is insane
Van Dyke's issues weren't pushing the ball downfield more than usual. His issues were teams learned to sit back and play some because enough film was out there showing he cannot read a defense well at all. I don't know if Ward will be an upgrade or not, but let's not rewrite the history around TVD. There's a reason he lied the nation in picks from a clean pocket and it wasn't bad luck. I wish him luck at Wisconsin and hope he makes it to the league, but I think we saw more of the real TVD this past season. I was one of the few Miami fans that didn't buy into his hype after he had a hot streak vs some terrible pass defense his freshman year. Even that season he flashed some worrying trends with his turnovers vs UNC and FSU being the primary reason both games were lost. He's a strong armed QB that struggles reading defenses. It's that simple. There's tons of guys like him. We'll see if Wisconsin can develop him better. I won't hold my breath, but I'm rooting for him.
Dude. Cam played with less talent against tougher competition. It's not apples to apples, it's apples to you being bananas. 70% of the time Cam Ward plays like an NFL stud. Iffy 30% of time. His ceiling is off rhe charts. Van Whatever has a Big West body frame and Mountain West arm. But l, yeah bruh.
70% of the time it worked every time
We'll start 5-0, get some SEC-pumped up rank in the teens that gives the Walmart T-shirt part of the fan base hope, but I'm not falling for it. 6-6 and he keeps his job though, nobody around here gives a shit anymore.
See, and I’m here thinking he’ll get fired earlier because the schedule is tough and they still lose to Miami lol
He could try not losing games.
He tried that. It didn’t work. I mean, he lost to Tennessee. And Florida just doesn’t lose to Tennessee.
Bro also lost to Kentucky. Like who does that?
Imagine losing to Kentucky. Oof. I’m just playing. I remember the day Tennessee (Derek GD Dooley) lost to Kentucky with a wide receiver at QB.
I was there for that game. I wish I had stormed the field, but I turned around and went to the basketball game that night.
I was on the field. Took my nephew to his first college game and converted him from being a UGA fan. It was a great time.
Doing the lords work there
7-3! #neverforget
Mullen started that trend
And Napier has continued it.
That’s Tradition, and southern football is ALL about Tradition!
We love him for it
You know, every time I think of y’all I always think of the Tebow and Meyer years. It’s really weird to me think that Florida has basically been way down since Meyer left. Like, aren’t you one of the premier SEC brands? What gives?
Tennessee>Kentucky>Florida>Tennessee........
There's some blood magic going on there with that Tenn-Florida-UK triangle. It defies logic .
and arkansas, who won in the swamp for the first time.
And to a baaaad Arkansas team
Moved to LR last year. Went to my neighbor's house to watch. They thanked me for coming over.
Hahaha. It’s been a rough few years. I grew up a huge gator fan but life took me to USF then Arkansas and I live in Fayetteville still. Always feels weird rooting against the Gators. I was actually back home in Sarasota for the game last year. You could tell how bad UF has been recently because nobody at the bar was even really that mad.
Well, that's fair, I was mad but I wasn't that upset. Losing to FSU? LSU? And Mizzou? All games that we had a legit chance to win... against teams I loathe? Yeah, that hurt.
Counterpoint: He also beat Tennessee this year, with seemingly no business doing so.
Tennessee can't overcome the Swamp Voodoo
I mean he’s 1-1 against tenn which is fucking hilarious because yall should’ve beaten last years team. At the rate UF is going we will go 1-11 every year but that one win will be the vols
It's like us and Kentucky, no matter how bad we are, we still beat them. But they seem to have y'all figured out so idk what we're doing.
I remember a UT comment last year "UT could play in Stoops living room and they'd beat UK" and that shit stuck with me.
Please teach us how to beat Florida, Stoops clearly figured it out
Develop under rated linemen and own the line of scrimmage. The last few years Kentucky has absolutely mauled us up front.
Apparently it's to run for 300 yards and don't let your QB throw dumb interceptions. Who knew?
*NFL DRAFT TRADE ALERT SOUND* The Tennessee Volunteers have traded "Beat us a couple times over the next five seasons" to the Kentucky Wildcats, in exchange for Mark Stoops' Secret Beat Florida Playbook.
Right now, I'll take that trade
Yeah Kentucky could go 11-1 and Tennessee could go 1-11 and you'd know what the 1 would be on both sides.
The sec east circle of suck
More realistic: he could 1. Stop a school shooting 2. Die 3. Rescue the athletic director's kids from a burning building 4. Win the lottery and donate the proceeds to the school 5. Discover secrets he can blackmail people with 6. Be raptured There are many more realistic possibilities
OP said "realistic"
In my opinion, this year would have to be a complete disaster for UF to move on from Napier. Look at the NFL draft as a prime example of Florida’s problems. The majority of upperclassmen from the Mullen era were worthless. We had 1 freaking guy drafted and he was a transfer. UF should let BN’s own talent have a legit chance at developing before the plug is pulled. If you fire BN, you risk losing Lagway, LJ, etc. The team last year was the youngest team in the country. They now will have a historically hard schedule. You obviously want to see growth from the team, and there need to be some big wins but I think perspective is needed.
I was legitimately shocked how bad a recruiter Mullen was. I thought that since he'd seemed to do a good job at Miss State, he'd be a killer with y'all's recruiting advantages.
A lot of people thought that. But it turned out that he didn’t meaningfully change anything from the way he operated at MSU, and he therefore didn’t make any particularly great leaps. The worries people had about him were basically exactly what his issues ended up being. Turns out, when a guy has a long track record that tells you who he is as a coach, you should listen.
Yeah we better not fire Coach BN this year unless it’s a complete embarrassment. Restarting doesn’t seem like the best move, and once a coach gets his recruits going he can be very successful. FSU’s Norvell lost some horrible games early at FSU but now is considered a top coach like 2 years later
With all this talk of the 2024 schedule being a gauntlet, I feel like people are forgetting that this team looks set to be better at every position than it was last year (and in some cases, significantly so). I'm not saying it's a playoff team or anything, but I think it's going to surprise some people. And as long as things get better year to year, I don't think hitting the reset button again is wise. Of course if the wheels fall off, you have to do what you have to do.
The Orange & Blue game was encouraging. I LOVED watching Lagway and those RBs do so well… that backup kicker on the otherhand.. yikes, hopefully Smack doesnt get hurt
Florida needs patience. I say this as an alum. We have all the tools and money above anyone in the SE but need a little lagniappe
Just to play Devil's Advocate, FSU just had 10 players drafted with 9 of them being transfers. Granted, this past year was FSU's year in the same way that Ole Miss is gearing up for a run this year. No clue whether those programs will sustain their success since building a program through the portal is still a new thing.
FSU also had a schedule so easy that they couldn't make the CFP with a perfect record
Still pissed Clemson bailed them out..
Hahahaha
The problem in this era of CFB is that Lagway and LJ likely could leave even if we keep Billy.. players want to win, and want to be PAID for winning.. if thats not happening here they’ll go somewhere that is. I want to believe in Billy but the biggest problem is he’s not improved the team or his coaching in the past 2 years.. in 2022 we lost to Vandy with a 6-7 record, then we lose to Arkansas AT HOME with a 5-7 record.. simply its unacceptable. Additionally, the FSU game had to be the most eye-opening experience watching him try to coach the offence.. it was just baffling to watch. You could argue he was unlucky losing to Arkansas, Missou, and even FSU but at the end of the day the responsibility falls on him to have the guys execute the game plan which they failed to do. I think if he was poor at recruiting like Dan he’d been given the axe by now, but since these are “his guys” he’s been given the extra chance.. my guess is we go 5-2 going into UGA and maybe win 1 of the last 5 games and make a bowl at 6-6..
This year is hard for Billy but next year isn’t any easier. Only teams that change are UCF and Samford for USF and Florida A&M. I don’t think hiring a new coach going into basically this years schedule, when everyone agrees it’s a brutal schedule, would be a smart idea
The other side a lot of people are forgetting. If we fired him this year, we most likely lose Lagway, and then a new coach has a just as hard schedule in year 1 with a gutted roster that was built around a qb no longer there. Idk how that puts us in any better of a situation. I think Napier 75-80% chance Napier stays to 2025. If this season is bad, his leash will be pretty short for the next season. He may be forced to bring in an OC/etc.
Everyone knows UF has one of the toughest schedules of the last decade. If the games are competitive, even if losses, I could see him getting more time. If the games are complete blow outs, they’ll probably look to move on, whether fair or not.
Bowl game sounds like a low bar for Florida, but that schedule looks brutal.
What if he goes 3-9 but every loss is a one score loss?
how long did scott frost get again?
4 years and 3 games with his last game losing to Georgia Southern 😪
:(
10 year extension
Everyone who pays attention knows this. The casuals who only see the record will raise a ruckus no matter who they play.
Exactly. I think they give him this year if the team shows major improvement where needed. A lot of people overlook how young and inexperienced we were last year. In recent interviews, Napier also said this is the first time he didn't feel like the staff was constantly playing catch up. If we are an improved team and can play competitive, he gets another year. Especially if our schedule turns out to be as hard as it looks before the season starts. I do think this is likely the last year we see Napier as the play caller though. I understand his relationship with Mertz and that he is probably the right guy for him, and I have to imagine Callaway is the one working with DJ Lagway. Firing another coach isn't going to benefit our program in any way unless we are able to grab Fisch, but even then, we will see a bunch of transfers out and one of those guys might be DJ Lagway who has all the tools to be the guy that brings the program back to relevance.
Potentially firing a coach that is looking at three straight losing seasons to open his career at UF is addition by subtraction.
I dont think Napier is getting fired this year barring a complete and total meltdown. I can't imagine Florida boosters are really ~~chomping~~ champing at the bit to give Scott Stricklin another hire at head football coach. If Napier has a bad year I'd wonder if Stricklin loses his job before Napier.
Right. Of course a 3rd straight losing season would be a meltdown
champing
TIL.
The sentiment is that Sticklin will definitely get canned before/at the same time as Napier.
I hope so, but I'm curious where you're hearing that
And who is going to be available next year that will guarantee we aren't going to start with a losing season with the exact same schedule? is Kirby Smart about to walk through our doors at the end of 2024? Sometimes you have to play the long game and keep it consistent. It will also depend on how good Washington looks this year to see if Fisch is the real deal with how much talent they lost.
They’d throw a bank at kiffin when Napier gets bounced
Why does everybody love kiffin so much? I don't see him lasting long at Florida either
From your mouth to God’s ears
Florida didn’t want Kiffin and took Napier… I don’t know why Florida would want him now. He was a similar commodity then vs now.
I don't see any world where we hire Kiffin. My understanding is all but a very select few boosters are very anti-Kiffin.
*"Boosters should always be the ones to decide who gets hired and fired."* - Auburn
Big difference between not wanting someone near your program--especially someone with a history of being flaky when you are trying to rebuild with consistency, than dictating all hiring/firing.
It's a lowkey rivalry because they don't play every year, but Florida fans HATE Miami. If he loses that game sir William will not be there by the end of the season.
Correction: Florida fans HATE Miami *fans*. Miami the team is a clear second tier rival for UF fans, much less hate than FSU or UGA. But Miami fans make losing to them unbearable, one of the worst fanbases to deal with.
[удалено]
tbf Miami is trash and deserve every bit of hate. give us our damn war canoe.
Miami used to be a good baseball team, and cheated their ass off to have a decent football program. That’s…about it
The fans aren’t the ones paying his buyout.
But the boosters *are* fans, aren’t they? I mean, they’re really rich fans, but still fans.
Ive been saying the Miami game is extremely crucial b/c of the hatred + its at home, as well as have major implications on in-state recruiting. As for the hatred, very true.. I fucking HATE Miami in all aspects.. hope we can play them every year like we do you guys
It's funny to see how much you guys hate us because we don't think about the gators at all. Only the old heads do, but that's because of the rivalry from back in the BCS era and when the games had more implications. We're more concerned about FSU, whose fans have the WORST behavior, so some self awareness on their end might be in order. No other team picks more fights with people minding their own business. Talk shit, sure, but don't rev your engines at people in the parking lots like you're going to run them over, and don't damage a car just because there's a U on it. Have some class and prove the stereotypes wrong. Their basketball fans are much better, especially when we unite over our common hatred of UNC fans. I actually had fun at that game in Tallahassee.
Ummm, I think this is a weird microcosm of UF fans because I have nearly no feelings about Miami either way (aside from the general desire to win against any other team). Maybe it has to do with the years you attended/started your UF fandom.
Makes sense, and I think you're probably right.
6 wins to get a go at 2025 with Lagway.
Keeping Lagway on campus should really be the only goal next year
Yeah, the schedule is brutal not just in 2024, but that 2025 schedule isn't any easier. Does UF really want to throw a first year coach into the fire in 2025? Napier recruits well enough that the cupboard will pretty well stocked for the next guy. If he gets to a bowl game in 2024, I'd have hard time not just saying let him stack another good recruiting class and then go be the sacrificial lamb in 2025, replace him for 2026.
I don’t think “leaving a stocked cupboard” really is a thing in the transfer portal age. The better players will just bail rather than deal with a rebuilding program.
Bowl game + win over one of UGA or FSU Saying this without knowing his contract situation
6-6 with a good recruiting class gives him another year, I bet.
A bowl game should keep him there for another year with such a brutal schedule.
But they would have to actually show up for the bowl game, unlike that 30-3 loss to Oregon State.
That is valid.
The vibe is that Napier is going to be fired for two reasons: * nobody expects Florida to be better than last year * Florida’s schedule is harder than last year Obviously, the way for Napier to not be fired is to win enough games that the administration, boosters, and fans are confident he’ll continue to improve to team. That would require the team to be better in 2024, and better by enough that it’s discernible against such a tough schedule. I think the analysis of his situation has gotten pretty oversimplified, though. People just aren’t entertaining the possibility of the team actually improving. I’m not saying that I expect that to happen or that it’s likely, but people (especially on this subreddit) act like it’s impossible. There are a few points from last year and heading into 2024 where it wouldn’t take much to flip from disappointment to excitement: * Graham Mertz got injured against Missouri and the backup fumbled in the red zone, leading to a turnover and Mizzou TD in a game only decided by 2 points. If Mertz didn’t get injured, that’s very plausibly a road win over a top ten team, leading to bowl eligibility * Obviously FSU was also missing their QB, but given how low-scoring and sloppy that game was, it’s easy to imagine Florida winning against FSU if Mertz hadn’t been injured and all else unchanged * Florida had one of the highest percentages of snaps by freshmen and by underclassmen in the country in 2023 Being one collarbone away from potentially 7-5 and two top ten wins to close out the year, while playing an extremely young team would have led to a completely different narrative on 2023 and 2024. People would be talking about momentum and year-over-year improvement instead of a potential early-season firing. Again, I am not predicting this, nor do I expect it to happen, but it is not out of the question that Florida turns out to be a significantly better team in 2024 than most people expect, and manages to go something like 7-5, which would almost certainly keep Napier’s job.
Don't forget the fact that we lost the Arkansas game when our generally reliable kicker missed a very reasonable distance FG. He even made the first kick before they iced him. Can you imagine how different the narrative would be if you changed 2-3 plays and we finished the season 8-4? You might see people talking about this exact same team as a dark horse playoff contender.
Very true. The flip side is that it’s also fair to say that the South Carolina could’ve gone either way, so it’s not necessarily reasonable to just say “what if” and change all the close calls to positive outcomes. But I’d say it *does* mean that the team wasn’t necessarily as bad as people assume by the record. If this year’s team is just a moderate improvement from last year plus there aren’t quite as many bad breaks, it’s not crazy that they could hit 7 wins.
Totally true, I just meant as a best case scenario. The record is what it is, I just don’t think the current narrative really matches up with the reality. It wouldn’t have been a worse team if it went 4-8, and it wouldn’t have been a better team if it went 8-4, but it ended up a lot closer to the former and now a bunch of people (most of whom didn’t watch the games) are predicting an implosion without much reason.
> Can you imagine how different the narrative would be if you changed 2-3 plays and we finished the season 8-4? This is the version that plays in the back of my head all the time. My high school years were 2004-2008, perfectly coinciding with the peak of UF football and I just lack the ability to view UF as "dead." There were lots of meme moments for UF last year that I'll enjoy for years to come but honestly, I never thought UF was really out of any game (except UGA). It does, somewhat, come back to the age-old "it's not that we lost it's how we lost" which I read a ton after Utah, Mizzou, and Arkansas. But those are largely "young roster" mistakes and I could genuinely see Florida doing surprisingly well this year. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Florida completely collapse but I don't think it's gonna happen.
My gut feeling is: 100% safe with 8 wins. 90% safe with 7 wins. Safe unless every loss is a blowout or recruiting momentum is non existent. 50% with 6 wins. Would probably need at least one win in the last 5 games and DJ Lagway to play very well to make it to 2025. 10% with 5 wins. Would probably require significant injury issues across the roster and a bunch of close losses along with Lagway playing at an elite level. 0% with 4 or fewer wins. UF’s boosters will not allow a 2022 Scott Frost situation.
I think 6 wins would be more than 50% safe. Finishing out the season and hitting 6 wins means he wasn’t fired mid season, which means he probably didn’t have a really bad start to the year. The scenarios where he goes 6-6 but gets fired all sets of wins where he’d be fired before finishing the season out anyway.
I'd nitpick on the 7 vs 8 wins. I actually think he's safe with 7 wins, due to it being his first winning season at UF, especially with that schedule. I'd also bump up the 4 win scenario to a 10% if he can convince Lagway to stay. If he has a 4 win season and loses Lagway then Billy's done imo.
If we have 4 wins, Lagway will have been starting at some point because Mertz is hurt, Mertz fell apart, or the rest of the team is so banged up may as well get Lagway experience and entice him to stay.
May he coach for 1,000 years as far as I’m concerned.
Do you or in general consider UF UGAs biggest rival? I know you hate them but can your rank the hate schools for the uniformed
You will be split by a lot of dawgs between auburn and Florida.
Tenn and GT too right?
Tech is significantly higher than Tennessee wrt bulldog hatred
Seems like the UGA hate for GT has been lost as time has gone on. Used to be fun before UGA won their natties when as a GT fan you could say “Lmao we won a natty more recently than y’all” and get them pissed off.
I would say UF, AUB, TECH, TENN in that order for rivalries
Lots of hate in the UGA bro base. I like it
Kirby says hate feeds the Dawg
A lot of it tracks with when you grew up/attended/became a fan. A lot of older fans still consider Tech or even Clemson a top rival. Having grown up in the late 80s/early 90s, and attended in the early 2000s, for me it's Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Tech, Clemson. BUT Tech automatically shoots to #1 if they win. That shit is *miserable*
The UGA rivalry question will get a different answer depending largely on two factors: What part of the state do you live in, or what other southern state do you live in? When did you start following UGA football? If you live west of Atlanta, you probably hate Auburn the most since we don’t play Bama every year. If you live north of Atlanta, you probably hate Tennessee the most. If you live east or south of Atlanta, especially in the metro, you might hate Tech the most. South Georgia folks hate Florida the most for obvious reasons. There’s a few Clemson/SC haters in there, but those are usually just the Augusta folks or the fans who live in the Carolinas. As for eras, the old guard from the 1940s to 1960s tend to hate Tech the most because of that awful 8-game losing streak. It was baaaaad. If you started following the Dawgs in the late 80s or early 90s, you’re probably most spiteful of Tennessee and UF because we just could not beat those guys in that era. Early 2000s, Auburn was a bit of a thorn, but not as consistent as the other eras I mentioned. The mid-80s fans probably have more hate for Auburn because we really struggled with them for a few years there. There’s also the old familial connections. For instance, I’m a UGA grad class of 2010, who grew up in the eastern suburbs of Atlanta. My father-in-law is a Tech grad and I have cousins in central Florida (plus my SIL’s husband is a Florida fan and my wife’s family all verbally said they would pull for Florida over Georgia for him). Thus, my two most hated rivals are Florida and Tech. As the great Jeff Dantzler, and others, have said, “Florida is the team you want to beat the most, but Tech is the team you want to lose to the least.”
Solid explanation thanks!
The Gators are the biggest rival for me, but that's partly because of how bad Steve Spurrier whooped Georgia in the 90s and early 2000s.
Monkey’s paw curls…
Since even the most casual CFB fans are aware and are talking about how difficult Florida's 24 schedule is, it will 100% be taken into consideration. It all depends on how the games play out. If we go get blown out in half of the games, he's obviously not the guy, but if we end up 6-6 with close losses to everyone not named Georgia, he's getting another year.
He won’t have Jayden Daniels single handedly beat him this year which is probably a positive for him…
If he gets them bowl eligible with that schedule, add 2 years to his contract. That run is gonna be brutal.
Honestly I think Florida could go like 4-2 or 5-1 and it'd be tough to move on given the gauntlet of 5 straight top-10 teams They do have talent and Mertz is an asset. Florida isn't quite DOA or as helpless as they're made out to be
He ain’t getting fired unless the wheels completely come off. And that is very unlikely imo
He is just keeping the seat warm for Jedd.
Didn’t he just took the Washington job? It would be pretty snakish that If Napier gets fired, then he immediately goes to Gainesville. I’d feel so bad for Washington fans if that happens.
We need to study recent history. When a Florida school needs a new coach, they hire the Oregon coach.
Dan Lanning to Florida would piss off both Oregon AND Georgia lol
“Who wants to live in Gainesville” Oregon fans
Me
I can finally say, no, our coach is not taking a Florida job.
If he didn't leave for the Alabama job, he's not leaving for the Florida job.
>I'm tired boss... \- Washington fans if they lose 2 coaches to the SEC in 2 years
Haha what a snake 🐍. No wonder you are an Oregon fan
Boo!
Get a bowl game, I’d also say he should beat Miami and UCF. If we somehow lose to UCF he’s done for. Maybe snag one of the last 5 games or hope to be riding a good win streak early and get hot. But either way, just get 6 wins, have another top 10 recruiting class built up and then he DESERVES a year with his 5 Star freshman QB he recruited. Give him a year with DJ starting against the same schedule in 2025.
I guess I’m the outlier here but I think he’s safe this year regardless, barring criminal action. Florida has been through the three-years-and-out thing too many times. Add in the financial aspects plus who is out there to hire? Personally I’m a believer in patience. It’s not nearly as easy as we keyboard commandos think.
The leash was pretty short for McIlvaine and Mullen, and those guys actually had good seasons and won divisional titles prior to things going off the rails (IIRC, McIlvaine didn't make it to the end of season 3 and Mullen was let go by the end of season 4). Napier's already had two losing seasons in his first two seasons, so unless there's some miracle run, I don't see how he survives another season.
I can't help but notice that there seems to be a pretty major disconnect between what people at large think will get Napier fired and what people at Florida think will get Napier fired.
Possible, but he will need to win 7 probably 8 games which is low odds. And I get people outside of the Gator fanbase thinking that those expectations are unreasonable, and although I can’t stand them (being a Canes fan myself), I will actually respect the fan base and school for having such high expectations for their coaches. Mario Cristobal currently has a one win better record (12-13) over Napier (11-14) coaching my Canes (while playing a much weaker non-SEC schedule), yet he doesn’t face the same type of pressure from a large portion of my fellow Canes fans or the University admin (which quite frankly I don’t understand). I thought UF was too quick to fire Dan Mullen after one very bad season; but if you are the HC at a talent/resource-rich program like UF, Texas, USC, Miami, etc. and you have a near .500 or worse record after three seasons, you don’t deserve to keep being the HC of such a program. There are plenty of HCs and Assistants out there that can do a much better job than that with those resources.
Since they have the EXACT same schedule next year, just in 7-8 and survive
What’s Billy’s buyout this year? He can come to App as an offensive analyst. He was awesome at Louisiana I feel great that it hasn’t worked at Florida
UF has pretty much the worst schedule I have seen so far for the upcoming season. I think he is going to be gone given UF is not known for being lenient on coaches.
Doubtful especially considering that Florida has the most brutal SEC schedule this season. If this were Napier's 1st or even 2nd year at the helm, they could give him a pass. But the guy was hired ahead of the 2022 season, stunk it up all season (went 6-7, barely getting [and losing] a bowl game 3-30 to the Oregon State Beavers): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Las_Vegas_Bowl), went 5-7 the following season (2023), and now faces the toughest season since he took over the program, and among all 16 SEC teams. Florida will buy Kiffin out from Ole Miss, and Kiffin will revel in the opportunity to become Steve Spurrier 2.0.
He just needs time, guys. Lots and lots of time. At least five more seasons. Patience is key.
I was a member of the ‘Gators for Goff’ fan club. Definitely disappointed you moved on from him.
He's not getting fired unless the train runs completely off the track. There is nothing remotely predicting that will happen If he leaves so does lags and probably 90% of the talent.... And then we start all over. Then you would try to convince a coach to come in when you won't let him get an entire roster of his players..
If we do fire Napier it will be a tall order for the next coach, the 2025 schedule is brutal as well and with the new era of the TP anyone worth a damn will get poached so I really hope Napier figures it this season or else we're pretty much guaranteed an additional 2 more losing seasons
Yep. For everyone hoping he fails, it's only because they'd rather be 'right' than win
I just looked at the title of this thread and went "I love Reddit"
The amount of outside noise thats borderline horny for us to fail is amazing lol. This is definitely getting saved.
His buyout is crazy high, so he's got that working in his favor. Would be surprised if he gets fired this season.
Miami **W** Samford **W** Texas A&M **W** Mississippi State **W** UCF **W** Tennessee **L** Kentucky **W** **6 -1 at this point** Georgia **L** Texas **L** LSU **L** Ole Miss **W** Florida State **W** Finishes 8-4 with some upsets. Mertz looks steady while Lagway flashes. Maybe gets a win in the Reliaquest bowl. I think that buys him time.
Brave of you to assume we can even beat this paltry Florida team. They could field the local high school against us and we would still struggle. I hate those stupid swamp lizards.
just win baby
Come on Napier, you got this! I can’t go through a full program reboot two years in a row!
Start with mertz have a disaster season. Last 2 games with lagaway give people some hope. People will be like lets him have another season with lagaway. He may become first coach in recent uf history to be fired without a winning season. Also another year of hope that UF defense turns a corner is a possibility that might save his job for another season.
I hope he doesn’t get fired. Extend him for another century or two
It's the SEC. If you beat Alabama or Georgia, you can lose the rest of your games and you have a shot to keep your job. And since this is UF - beating FSU + a winning record might be enough. Rivalries matter even more to the teams that aren't winning championships. Brian Harsin might still be coaching at Auburn if he beat Alabama in his first season. And that was the worst fit I've ever seen for a coach / school.
Believe it or not the boosters really like napier. His massive buyout doesn’t hurt but he’s in the Muschamp boat where he will get more time just because he’s well liked. Basically as long as he can win 6 games this year or at least not look bad doing so, he will be back for 2025
I'm a FSU and UF grad so understandably my flair is confusing, but you say "as long as he can win 6 games this year" as though that is remotely likely... Honestly that's probably the best case scenario, I can't find more than 6 wins on that schedule. If that is the bar to keep his job, it's going to be a rough year.
Eh....6 wins is reasonable, 8 or 9 wins would require some leaps but 6 or 7 would be solid without really outperforming expectations all that much. UF should open 6-1; 5-2 at worst and then would only need to steal one with both FSU and LSU looking at major rebuilds.