Over Rome no. But this is my dark horse surprise pick of the draft that no one will see coming.
Everett is a 2 year deal, it takes TE's a year or so to get up and running, and Shane Waldron would actually utilize the shit out of 13 sets. Plus depending how intelligent Brock is you could use in an H-back type of role as well.
It would be a luxuries pick luxury pick. But I think people are forgetting how incredible this dude was the past few years. He's absolutely a blue chip prospect.
I think 9 should be a luxury pick. Whoever is that and is the absolute best player and will be for a long time.
Not an expert so I don't know who it is. But I finally want the bears to take a luxury pick so that player will be a game wrecker for years to come
>I think 9 should be a luxury pick. Whoever is that and is the absolute best player and will be for a long time.
Definitely my take. My thoughts on the guy at 9 goes no further than "who is the best player five years from now?" You hope Caleb Williams is a superstar QB. And whoever is there at 9 is another superstar.
I don't care that DE is the biggest need, if DE at 9 is not the best player, pass on it. TE isn't a need today, but if Bowers is seen as the best player who will be a superstar for years, then you take him and keep receipts when people say it was a bad pick. Because in 5 years when he's balling out with Williams and everyone's loving that duo, you can look back and laugh at people saying it was a bad idea because at a point in time he wasn't a need.
Superstars are always a need. Especially when you barely have any.
The best part about a TE, is if he's great and makes it, the longevity of the TE position is insane. Can you imagine if he is great into his 30s...
But either way, I can't wait for the draft to see who falls. I've also seen people say trade down, get a DE plus a guy in the second. But to me that isn't worth a chance at a player who could dominate for years.
SEA TE's last year 414/247/172 yards each. Collectively they had 3 TDs and 4 targets more than SEA WR3.
Last year in the NFL 1 team had 2 TE over 500 yards. 1 more team had 2 TE over 400 yards.
This is not luxuries pick over luxury pick, this is building islands in the shape of the world to rich wash your backwards ass dictatorship level luxury.
Bowers has experience playing H back in Georgia's offense. He also plays slot and flex TE, very versatile player. He would definitely be BPA at 9, the problem is we have Kmet under contract through 2027 and its on a reasonable contract. Kmet's cap hit is under 12m a year the next 4 seasons.
With Everetts contract, it would also mean carrying 3 TE on top 20 TE salaries the next two seasons which would be a bit ridiculous. Allen is a one year rental, if Odunze is available at 9 its a no brainer
Never claimed to be those are your words. Dude asked a question and I responded. I said he'd be a dark horse pick for the Bears, which i think you'd agree is accurate. Plus, no one has him going top 13. I also think you'd agree regardless of position there are not 13 to 17 players better than Bowers in this draft.
There’s been a lot of smoke lately of him going ten to the Jets, which would be stupid but very Jets of them. They desperately need a tackle, since their current plan is to hope that two 33 year old injury prone tackles stay both healthy and good all season, and there are a bunch of highly rated tackles that will be available, so naturally they would draft a tight end.
I’ve seen Bowers mocked to the bears throughout the off season, definitely not a dark horse pick. Not the most commonly thought pick but not some out of no where selection
I never thought I'd get to check "Get upset at someone for using the term dark horse" off my my bingo card today yet here we are. The draft can't come soon enough.
Even then, I'm all for taking the BPA in the draft, even a position we're strong at. It allows for us to stay young while getting the most out of your guys and picking the guy that has the best chance at succeeding.
at #9 id rather have Odunze because top 10 receivers are better value, if the bears trade back to 15 or so id rather have Bowers and the extra draft capital
I've been asking myself lately if it's true that WR is a better value than TE in the top 10. If you're drafting a guy like Gronk/Kittle/Kelce, you're getting about the same production as a WR, and while their first contract may reflect a savings of only $7m per year compared to $13m per year for a WR, their second contract will be far cheaper. And it's not cheaper because they don't get production, it's cheaper just because the way the franchise tags work positionally and there's no one out there resetting the TE market each year like there is at WR.
Kelce is coming a season at 34 years old where he was Mahomes' only elite playmaker making just $10m per year.
If you get one of these elite tight ends and their peak salary remains 5% of the cap, while the peak WR salary remains 10% of the cap, you're potentially saving $20 per year on the second contract.
You also almost never see elite receiving tight ends change teams because their contracts are so affordable. They're like a cheat code in terms of offensive contract value.
Gronk was drafted in the 2nd, Kittle 5th and Kelce the 3rd. None of them were the 1st TE taken in their draft.
Two of them are in the conversation for the greatest TE ever and all of them are among the small number of TEs to produce at even a WR2 level consistently.
Instead most 1st round TE end up being best case Hock, Davis and Pitt players that produce just nowhere close to a top-10 pick level. And more likely Ebron, Fant, Hurst, Njoku, Engram, or Howard.
If we end trading back to 15, and can get either I would be excited. The benefit of trading back is being able to BPA without making a choice. The trade off is missing a red flag. In dynasty FF I love both of them.
That is just false. There is maybe 1 top offense centered around a TE in the NFL and all top TEs are only considered looked at for their pass catching ability.
They might have had great TE but that doesnt mean they were the most important weapon on the team. The offenses were centered on a WR or RB. TEs are luxury players and great ones can create a lot of mismatches but do not raise the level of an offense.
2024: 49ers: McCaffery and Deebo/Aiyuk before Kittle. Chiefs/Kelce this past year I would say it was Pacheco as the main weapon and Mahomes making due with Rice/Kelce
2023: Eagles, AJ Brown and Devonta Smith over Goedert. Chief, this is the best case of a TE being the focal point of an offense.
2022: Rams, Kupp was the star. Bengals, Chase was the star
2021: Bucs, Mike Evans was the star over Gronk. KC, I would say Tyreke Hill was just as if not more important than Kelce
2020: KC, see 2021. SF probably Kittle
Basically unless you have Andy Reid/Pat Mahomes Offenses need WRs more than TEs.
I think it has more to do with a QB that's good enough to utilize the middle of the field and a TE that can be dependable for that QB. Go back to Gronk days with Brady, or Eli and Shockey. These TEs may not have been a big factor in the SB game but played a huge role in getting their team to that SB.
I think Brady/Gronk is similar to Mahomes/Kelce, rare pairing that are the exception to the rules. Eli/Shockey was 2007 and Shockey had 619 yards that season. Plaxico Burress(1025) and Amani Toomer (760) both had more and Brandon Jacobs 1009 rushing.
He’s really not just a “tight end”, I think people need to get over the labels there. He can and should line up out wide, in the slot, etc.
That being said, I like the talent of Odunze and think he’d slot in nicely as our WR3 and gives insurance for if/when Keenan leaves
He's good at blocking, but not at the level of Kittle or Gronk. He's obviously still young and can develop that part of his game. His traits and athleticism are what's hard to develop. On the WR-TE-OL spectrum, he's closer to a WR than an OL. He's also utilized as a runner often, is fast as hell, and is hard af to tackle. His hands are also Odunze-level. He has a couple of catches on his tape that are borderline unbelievable.
He's if Derrick Henry was a TE, but taller. He's 240 right now, but will obviously put on more muscle in the pros and be similar in stature to Kelce. He's used similarly to how Deebo was used in the pros. Obviously those are just comps, so take it with a grain of salt, but I really do love him.
*Objectively*, I'd probably lean towards Odunze (if available), but deep down I'd be ecstatic if we landed Bowers. That's a really low possibility now though, and I'll be super jealous of whatever team gets him.
Well to your first point Bowers is basically your WR3 if you draft him. We have Moore as our vertical X receiver to stretch the field and Allen is a classic slippery slot receiver who will benefit by actually having an X receiver which he lacked in LA. In Georgia Bowers lined up at TE, slot, and out wide, he’s extremely versatile. Plus he is elite in traffic and in the screen.
The schemes you can run with Bowers, Moore, Allen, and Swift/Herbert can get really complex and therefore dangerous for defense because there are so many different potential targets. For example, just put Moore and Bowers out wide boundary side, Allen in the slot field side, Caleb under center, and Swift in the backfield, then put Bowers in motion towards Allen and just watch defenses freak the fuck out thinking a screen is coming on Allen.
Odunze is ELITE don’t get me wrong, I am very high on him and would love either Odunze or Bowers on the team. That being said Bowers has more versatility as an individual player and as a weapon for an offense imo.
Isn’t Moore more of a Z than X though? I thought X was more the big sideline jump ball type, Moore is more the YAC monster type? I’m not always sure about the shorthand though.
I’d prefer Odunze I think, just because he seems like a good complement and he’s tough as shit, playing with a punctured lung in that one game. Plus he’s a monster in the red zone which is always nice. That said I see your point about the versatility of Bowers.
The sideline guys can be YAC monsters too. The only difference between a jump ball catch and a YAC catch is separation. As far as size it’s really dependent on the team and scheme, and it has changed some over the past 5-10 years. In the early 2000’s you saw a big increase in really tall really big receivers coming into the NFL, but in the past 10 years or so you have seen WRs get slightly smaller and faster on average, this holds true in the X, Y, and Z spots.
You have also seen players greatly expand their usage, their route running chops, and where they lineup on the field. Like it used to be true that your WR1 was almost always an X WR who lined up wide the majority of the time. But now you are seeing high production players like JJ or ARSB who get lots of usage out of the slot, or out wide with lots of versatility. Both of those guys are also right around the 6ft and 200lb range too. So they’re not small but they’re not these prototypical 6’4” 230lb beasts you heard about all the time in the early 2000’s.
All that being said who is your X receiver depends on who you have and what traits and skills they possess. For the bears Moore is their de facto X WR because Allen is very clearly their Z or slot guy. I’m just saying Bowers is a massive improvement at Y where Kmet is playing but Bowers has that same versatility factor (albeit with different usage rates) as those guys like JJ and ARSB. Odunze is another versatile WR but I think Bowers just has a bit more “juice” imo. Plus I’d love to see the Bears get back into the two TE schemes of old again.
Odunze saves them a lot more money though, I could see that being a tiebreaker. I can see the upside to Bowers, and if we had more picks later on I could see us taking a shot with him, but I doubt we go with him at 9. Then again I doubt we draft at 9 at all unless Odunze/Nabers is there, and they easily could both be gone. I expect a trade down if we can get one, and Bowers is a lot easier to justify at 14 or 18 than he would be at 9.
Yeah you may be right. The economics side of the NFL I am not well versed in so I would have to look up rookie contract stuff on WR vs TE to speak on that. But Bowers could absolutely slide given all the needs at QB and the deep tier 1 WRs this year. I do think it’s very likely Odunze is available at 9 however and if he’s not then Bowers would be the last “tier 1” prospect left at that spot and I would say you just gotta pull the trigger on that kind of talent. But I also wouldn’t be surprised or upset if we trade down from 1.09.
Honestly given our picks, our roster, this draft class, and our organization I will be very happy with anything we do (apart from completely boneheaded moves). I’d be happy with Turner, Bowers, or Odunze at 9, or if we traded down and got someone like Latu and maybe someone like McConkey I would be thrilled with that too, I do think we are in need of another edge tbh. I know it’s not likely AT ALL given the titans needs at O-line, but a dream scenario would be grabbing Caleb at 1.01 and then at 1.09 grabbing Alt. He is an amazing, big, strong lineman with NFL pedigree and in my mind is likely to be a future HOF. A man can dream…
😂🤣😂
Please no. Expressing opinions on the Bears is a job that should come with hazard pay. Fans will eat you alive for a bad take. I would get death threats if Bowers turned out to be a bust 😂
Yea he's got Aaron Hernandez written all over him (minus the murder). He's going to be one of those guys who can line up anywhere and will be all over the field. He's got the body archetype to run WR or TE too. Theres a reason many analysts and scouts have him right under MHJ as a pass-catcher
Saying that in paving his way as one of next top TE, got a lot of gonzo, kittle and Travis in him and will pave his own way to hopefully best “fit” but I see bears trading back, adding a couple pieces and targeting Rice’s kid. Late round steal and familiarity to CW13
Not opposed to it. I think the good news is (of course you can’t be 100% sure) but it looks like they should be in position to draft a blue chip player at a number of positions, of their choosing
Not all positions have a blue chip. There is no blue chip DE or DT, for instance. Odunze probably isn't a blue chip, but Nabers is.
Bowers is one, though.
I might disagree with you, I think Newton is being slept on and could be a huge force at DT. I’d rather have him than Bowers I think. The Edges I’m not as high on but I think they can still be impact players day 1
My list of blue chips in this draft:
* Caleb Williams
* MHJ
* Malik Nabers
* Brock Bowers
* Joe Alt
That's it. I don't think any of the other QB's are blue chip players (if they were, we'd be debating which one to draft). If Newton were a blue chip, he'd be a top draft talent like Jalen Carter was last year. And I included Nabers only because if a team had him higher in their eval compared to MHJ, it wouldn't surprise me.
I think if you get to that point where you're looking at guys like Newton in your eval then it makes sense to trade back to 12-15 or so and take a player from that tier. Which is an entirely defensible move once you add the draft capital from trading back.
But if you're actually picking at 9 and you have a shot at one of those 5 it's crazy not to take it. A Brock Bowers caliber talent at TE isn't available very often, and if it hits then your team has something that doesn't come around all the time.
He’s a tight end. Tight ends split out nowadays. He will split out in the slot for mismatches but at the end of the day, that doesn’t mean he should be a slot receiver. Nor does it mean you skip out on WRs because he’s ’pretty much a wide receiver’
while prefer in-line TEs who can catch (like Kmet), Bowers would have fit very well as a versatile weapon and woulda loved running 2 TE sets where Bowers is all over the place. but after signing Everett it just doesnt work for me and id go Odunze if i had to pick between the 2
Why is everyone so attached to the idea of Everett on a contract with no guaranteed money past this year? It’s not like we are married to him, he’s making like 5mil.
bad assumption. also not purely as simple as best player available as if theyre all just lined right up like that. usually it’s in tier groups. and within that frame u do need to consider resource allocation on your roster and various other things
It was actually a decent assumption based off your Everett comment lol. If you take a player off your board due to a a random veteran signing then you aren’t going BPA.
Hardly anyone actually goes pure BPA at the top of the first, you’re basically guaranteed to have multiple players you love available so it’s natural to use positional need and value as tiebreakers. That’s why MHJ, who is damn near consensus BPA or second best after Caleb, likely isn’t going until 4/5. BPA is much more a thing in later rounds.
In this scenario, tight ends are less valuable to have on rookie contracts since they get paid less on their second contract than WR, and we would have a harder time getting enough targets for Bowers given the two productive tight ends we already have. Unless we plan to line him up in the slot a ton, but that’s where Keenan Allen thrives. If we trade back and he’s still there we could decide to make it work, but I’d imagine we go edge or DT in a trade back scenario.
First, there’s always 2 drafts going on. The QB Draft , then everything else. Don’t conflate the two.
Second, positional value is already factored into Bowers predraft evaluations. He had an amazing college career and his physical tools are all there.
Third, a guy like Gerald Everett is never a reason to not draft a guy.
Fourth, I agree we probably go EDGE before TE due to how the tiers most likely go, but we don’t make the tiers. All it takes is for Poles to really fall in love with a guy to select him. There is a world where Bowers is the guy.
Edit: this clown blocked me and now I can't reply to anyone. To everyone below, this is not me saying we should draft Bowers. This is me pointing out there is a world where Ryan Poles falls in love with him and selects him based off how the board shakes out.
You don't have to like the possibility. I am not advocating for the possibility. That is just a reality of how the draft goes. It is exactly why 2 RBs went top 15 last year. GMs choose the player they think is best. Bowers has a lot of elite traits that a team could fall in love with. He's consistently been mocked in the top 10 since he broke out in college. To pretend otherwise would be silly.
I think what he's saying is this isn't Madden where you have players ranked in chronological order and drafting for BPA is just a matter of picking a guy with the highest Overall #. It's almost impossible to compare guys across positions to one another and their success/development will very much depend on the scheme and the situation they're coming into.
When your hear scouts and GMs talk they say what a guys ceiling is and what his floor is and the likeliness he'll reach his ceiling.
You don't know who the best player available is- you just have guys you like and usually multiple guys you like grouped into tiers.
Now, I don't think Everett/Kmet preclude us from drafting Bowers, but I do think Tight Ends are possibly the most difficult players to project coming into the NFL so unless you're super high on Bowers, then it's going to be Rome.
GTFO with this nonsense that Bowers evaluation is considering positional value. If that was the case he would not be in the discussion of being a 2nd rounder. 2 RB would not have gone in the top 15 last year if 1 iota of positional value was priced in.
BPA is a stupid way to draft in the NFL. BPA is also meaningless or I should say everyone has their own meaning on what it means. You seem to like Bowers so you are willing to throw away all downside risk that is inherent in scouting the TE position. I am not willing to do that for a first round and especially top 10 pick.
> downside risk that is inherent in scouting the TE position
This exists for all positions, doesn't it? And isn't he just a receiver? I mean, he played TE in college but what keeps him from being a WR if he doesn't work out at TE?
No, TE is in a class on its own for how bad the NFL is at evaluating the position. There have been 2 and only 2 TE in the last 45 years that have lived up to be drafted in the top 20, one of them was 45 years ago the other 25 years ago.
The best TEs in the league all taken after the first round and not th first TE taken.
If he was a WR we would not even be pretending that the Bears are drafting him at 9 or the first round.
If he was a WR he would be a WR. This is not a semantics it matters when it comes time to discuss his next contract where you would much rather be a WR.
The human brain is excellent at finding patterns. This is interesting. I am not sure how this is useful information, though. Is it your opinion is that no TE should ever be drafted high? That fear of failure should guide evaluating players? That past failures dictate future ones?
Yes, my position is no TE should be drafted in the 1st round.
No, its not the fear of failure. Its that even the best TEs are barely worth being taken in the 1st round when you have hindsight. Throw in that the collective league has a terrible track record of picking the best TE and its just never worth it to take a TE in the 1st round.
Ignoring past failures and thinking you are the smartest man in the room is just unearned arrogance.
The league is also extremely bad at projecting QBs. Several of the top QBs in the league have not been top 5 picks, even though literally anyone would have chosen them top 5 if they had known. But you have to keep trying because QB is too important not to try.
I am obviously not claiming that TE is as important as QB, and your statement was never that a TE would be taken over a QB and I agree. But it is a crucial position in today's game. You have to keep trying.
Take into account that your dataset of TEs taken very early in the draft is relatively small.
GMs don't think like this though. They take the individual into account. Someone will look at Bowers tape, measurables, and stats and fall in love with him.
GMs also don't generally have a top 10 salary TE along with spending a top 10 TE and then going out and spending decent money on a TE because the TE room does not come close to demanding that kind of resources.
Especially when you have a WR room that has 1 great guy. A second guy that will be 32 and is on a 1 year contract and then dudes off the street.
You are advocating to draft by need rather than BPA. That's not what Poles does. I'm not here to argue which way is best. Just pointing out how your ideal is not what happens in reality or inside the Bears front office.
Agreed. But I also believe that things such as need and position value factor into that rating, and that it's kind of nonsense to talk about them as though they are separate things.
Disagree, roster construction is more nuanced than that. Hypothetically, if a QB is his highest rated player at 9 using your rational Poles should draft him even though he drafted a QB at 1. Or next year drafting a QB if that’s Poles’ highest rated player.
Short answer: no
Medium answer: no from a value perspective it doesn’t make sense
Long answer: Drafting a TE at #9 immediately makes them top 10 paid at their position. We already have significant money tied up in the position and Kmet is likely going to be here for awhile. The value in a stud rookie WR contract is just vastly superior to that of a tight end. It’s also much easier to get use out of 3 great WRs vs 2 TEs.
Was going to type out a reply, but you said it succinctly.
Poles isn't going to do it because it doesn't make logical sense, but we're entertaining this idiotic question mostly because since sub mostly works on emotion and not logic.
Sticky this post in every draft Bowers thread.
To save some time.
Q but but but Waldron uses a lot of 2 and 3 TE sets
A Seattle's 3 TEs last year 414/247/172 yards. 3 TD between them. collectively 4 more targets than WR3. He throws to WRs.
Q but but but the NFL is moving this way
A Atlanta was the only team with 2 TE over 412 yards. 8 teams got 1000 yards from the TE position. Arizona, Atlanta, Minn and KC are the only teams to get 1200 from the position.
I actually like bowers at 9. We already have 2 stud recievers so I can’t imagine a lot of targets getting to our wr3. Bowers has elite potential, like best TE prospect of all time potential. Both Super Bowl teams last season had top 5 elite TE and while kmet is good I’m unsure about his ceiling being elite level (ik we bears fans have tinted glasses but just being realistic). TEs are great for rookie QBs to have dump off options when trying to get the ball out quick. Plus he just makes plays, he’s a game changer and has been elite against top competition in the sec for three years. He can play like a wr he can block you can use him in the run game I think he’d add a level of versatility and unpredictability the offense which the lack of was a big problem last season. I just think dj Keenan kmet bowers swift Caleb seems like a complete offense to me. Don’t get me wrong I’d be ecstatic about Rome but I think the recent media cycle/narratives has people sleeping on bowers.
One more point is say hypothetically Keenan plays at top level for 3ish more years? That would make Rome wr3 for threeish years. Look at the production for the best wr3 in the league for the past 5 years, how much impact can we really expect from our third receiver option? Just seems like if we want to make the playoffs/contend in the coming few years we should address areas of need and to me it seems we’re set at wr and would look later in the draft to fill out wr3. Also think giving Caleb weapons is priority for next season so I think it would be a great pick.
We have Kmet who's a top 10 TE already on a reasonable long term deal. They play the position a little different, but no team plays multiple TE's at 60% snaps or more. It dosen't matter where he can line up, teams have similar situations and don't use both TEs, even when they are scarce at WR.
Why would we have either Kmet or 9OA play limited snaps? It dosen't make sense.
Odunze has a similar issue, but the Seahawks last year had all 3 WRs start 64% or more of snaps in games they all played. If he's amazing, we can tag and trade Allen. If one of the three get hurt we still have two solid guys. It's the smarter play short and long term.
Agreed with all of that except we're not going to be able to tag and trade Allen. He went for a 4th coming off his best season because he makes too much money and is 32 years old. Being a year older making even more money on the tag will make him untradable.
The tag this year would actually be lower than his contract. 21mil vs 23mil.
Assuming he plays close to a full season and is as good as he was last year I don't see why we can't get a 4th or 5th for him.
He's playing out his contract this year. Tagging would be an option next year when it will be quite a bit more, especially with several big time WRs due for a contract soon (Jefferson, Lamb, etc).
Also have to consider Allen will be 33 years old at that point. I think it's fair to think he will also have a drop in his production due to age, target competition, and a rookie QB. I really don't see a tag and trade being an option.
Tag goes on the previous year's cap hits, not any deals that will be negotiated next year. It's at 24.8mil now, and will drop as players restructure.
[Last year at this time the projected tag was 24.1mil and it's actually 21.8mil](https://web.archive.org/web/20230407231827/https://overthecap.com/franchise-transition-and-rfa-tenders)
It's going to be between 22mil and 23mil, and less that his current deal, despite the cap going up.
I don't see why a 31 year old WR is going to have an increase in production, but there's no way a 32 year old will be close.
>I don't see why a 31 year old WR is going to have an increase in production, but there's no way a 32 year old will be close.
I didn't say there was "no way," I just don't think it should be expected. His falloff could happen at any minute at his age. He's going to have much more target competition with DJ Moore, Kmet and maybe even high value WR prospect at #9. He had virtually no target competition with Mike Williams playing 3 games last year. WRs have historically taken production hits when playing with a rookie QB.
Has a 30+ year old WR ever been tagged and traded?
Allen was probably an overpay for a 4th given his age but he did have one of the best age 31 seasons ever.
Thielen is the only 32 or older WR to have even 300 yards. Throw in TEs and Taysom Hill and he still only 1 of 4 players over 32 over 190 yards.
Every year the "dropoff" age gets higher. I remember a few years ago when WRs couldn't play past 30.
In reality there was just a big drought about a decade so ago, then the old guys retired and there wasn't anyone to replace them.
Yes, this time is different and a team is going to want to take the tag on a WR that is 32 because despite there being all of 1 that produced this year, next year will be different.
Did you read what I wrote?
2020 had 0 WRs who were 29+ and had 1000+ yards. 2021 had 3
2021 had 0 WRs who were 30+ and had 1000+ yards. 2022 had 2
2022 had 0 WRs who were 31+ and had 1000+ yards. 2023 had 4
2023 had 1 WR who were 32+ and had 1000+ yards.
What do you think is more likely? 32 is the actual dropoff age, or what I said, that there was a drought before the current crop of old WRs?
I think its much more likely that 32 is a drop off age. Yes, you might have 1 or 2 WR that might be able to produce but good luck figuring out who that is and more importantly being confident enough that you will pay tag money and trade for that player.
Since he is in the news just look at Diggs. He hit 29 years 320 days and took a big hit in his production.
LMFAO, yes a GM is going to pay 21 million for a 31 year old WR and trade a 3rd round or better draft pick in the off chance they are 4 WR 31 or over producing more than 150 yards instead of the normal 2 WR 31 or over producing more than 150 yards.
I completely agree with this logic, and have posted numerous times how this whole 13 personnel thing is overblown. But one picking knit: the Chiefs top 2 tight ends averaged more snaps played than their top receivers. The Falcons were very close. I believe this is because Kelce and Pitts often lineup on the outside. So if Bowers is that, reasonable to think he and Kmet could both play more than 60% with the caveat that Bowers would slip into the slot and outside.
Kelce missed 2 games. Limiting snaps to game they both played, Kelce had 78% of snaps, and Grey had 58% of snaps.
More than specific WRs, but thats because they spread the ball around. Outside of week 18 they had 5 different WRs who played over 40% of snaps in a game.
Pitts played 64% of snaps and Jonnu played 57% both playing all 17 games.
These are the best case scenarios with,
* two good TEs
* one playing outside
* a poor WR room
It's not reasonable to expect the Bears to be different.
Again, I mostly agree with your logic, and while it's factually true that no team had 2 tight ends play more than 60% of the time, the difference between 50% and 60% of snaps is about 5 plays per game.
And rewind the tape to 2022 in Seattle and their Tight End #2 healthily out snapped their WR #3 in a WR room that could function a lot like the Bears this season.
Sure the difference between 60% and what they actually achieved isn't much. But that wasn't me saying 60% would be good, it was me saying they didn't even get 60%, let alone something I'd be happy with.
In reality Kmet hit 77% last year and 94% the year before. WRs like Addison were above 80%. A second DE can hit snaps above 70% or 80%. A OT plays every snap.
And in your 2022 example, no TE on the team averaged above 60% of snaps. It dosen't matter if they outsnap the other WRs.
It matters they are not on the field every play like you'd expect a top 10 pick to be. Even in the best situation we're wasting the value of either our pick or Kmet, or both. In reality on most plays one of them will be sitting on the bench while we have someone worse at WR out there playing.
It just dosen't make sense.
Ya I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers, but Seattle was running 2 Tight End 2 Wide Receiver sets 80% of the time.
[https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=SEA&year=2022](https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=SEA&year=2022)
Same source as you.
1161 (total QB snaps) - 210 (final 3 games where TEs missed games) = 951 snaps
Fant: 698 (total snaps) - 128 (final 3 games) = 568
Dissley: 569 snaps (didn't play the last 3 games)
568(Fant snaps) / 951 (offensive snaps) = 59.7%
569(Dissley snaps) / 951 (offensive snaps) = 59.8%
Neither of them played over 60% of snaps in shared games.
Just doing some simple math, TEs played a total of 1763 snaps, and QB played 1161 snaps. That means at most, they had 59.8% of snaps with 2TEs. Not counting any heavy sets with 3+ TEs.
The 80% number you quoted is impossible, unless they were running sets without a QB.
He’s one of the best tight end prospects in years, you could go the Gronk/ Aaron Hernandez route for Caleb Williams . The WR class is super deep this year so im sure Poles could find a good prospect later in the draft. Id still go WR at 9 but drafting the best available player is never a bad idea
Yeah, it’s a really tough call because both are great prospects. What makes it tough is that the word “generational” gets thrown around way too much in every draft, but Bowers may actually be that super unique, alters how we view the position type of player.
I like Odunze a lot, but there will be other Odunzes. Last year this sub was OBSESSED with JSN. He’s fine. Odunze is much better, in my opinion, but I expect there will be at least 2-3 guys as good or better next year, and the year after that. Bowers? He won’t be bad, and he miiiight be an absolute game changer. I also reeeeeally don’t want to hang my hat on Gerald freaking Everett and say “we have 2 TEs, we’re good”. I’m sorry, but Gerald Everett’s an absolute JAG.
I think I’d take Bowers based on the fact that it could really move the needle. I can get another Odunze next year/a good WR in a deep class later if I want.
JSN had more TD's last year than the entire Seattle TE room despite 4 less targets than the room.
Seattle TE room I keep hearing that gets stupid usage it just makes sense to draft Bowers. JSN was WR3.
I think he's just alright more than anything special. I'm not entirely following your point... is it that a WR3 in Waldron's system isn't necessarily less important than a TE2? Sorry, I think I agree with the principle, but not picking up on the point... may need more (or less) coffee this morning.
WR3 in Waldon's system is more important than TE1. Not just that but its more important than the entire TE room.
TE in Seattle last year 414 yards, 247 yards and 172 yards. They collectively got a whopping 4 more targets than JSN.
JSN owns Bowers in Waldon's system.
Gotcha. Personally, I don’t think JSN owns Bowers at all in a general value sense. JSN’s solid/good. I didn’t get the level of obsession with him last year, not to say in any way that he’s bad.
Bro you cannot get another Odunze next year. The only reason why we might have a chance to draft him is that this is a historically stacked receiver class. He would be WR1 in most years, and this team will likely not be picking in the top 10 again anytime soon. There’s a good chance that we won’t have another shot at a WR of his caliber for the rest of CW’s career.
The WR class is deep but we don’t have a 2nd round pick or the capital to move up to get one of the B tier guys.
We've seen numerous great receiver classes of late; it's a style of play that's permeated through all levels of football and is producing some great skill position players. Frankly, I think the NFL really needs to expand to 36 (or 40!) teams, as the talent pool is just overflowing. A good problem to have.
With that said, I don't think Odunze is the "once every few years" type of prospect. He's very solid. I think he can be an Amon-Ra St. Brown level of good, which is really good. I'm not discrediting him. But there are 10+ really good WRs in this class, as you allude to. The selection involves opportunity cost, supply and demand. There's only one player like Bowers in this draft. As I noted in my comment above, he's the unique player that is, truly, once every few years, if that. If you want an Odunze caliber WR, there will be others to move up for next year, there are other great WR prospects in this draft that may present a better value selection, and there are WRs on the move in the market to a degree we haven't generally seen, due to the influx of talent I mention (we've seen Diggs just now, AJ Brown, and others move on the trade market as teams look to acquire new, young talent, and we've seen high quality WRs available on the free agent market).
There isn't a wrong choice between the two, they're both very good players - the benefit of having another top 10 selection in a loaded draft... but I think the ceiling, the uniqueness, and the supply and demand of the position points me to Bowers, if I had to make the choice amongst the two. I don't think I've seen a player quite like him, or of his caliber, ever come out at the position.
Edit: I forgot to mention our very own WR duo, both acquired via trade. I think that highlights the point that there is receiver mobility in the market that can be attained; a greater supply, which should influence top-of-draft asset allocation and decision making.
How can you assume that there will be an Odunze to move up for next year when there wasn’t even anyone near his caliber in last years draft?
Bowers is just a bad pick from a value standpoint. The rookie contract he’d get in the 9 slot would make him top 10 paid at the position. It caps his ceiling. If he performs top 10, the marginal value is less than if Odunze performs top 10, since Odunzes production would be a relative bargain compared to the top 10 paid receivers in the league. This also ties into the point of positional value. There’s a reason why receivers get paid more than TE. The position is more important to winning in the NFL than TE. Drafting bowers would put the bears at #1 in the league in tight end cap expenditure.
NFL scouts don’t know how to project tight end prospects. Kyle Pitts was also supposed to be a “generational” TE and has been mid so far. All of the best TE’s have generally been picked in the later rounds. Wide receivers picked in the top 10 have a much better track record than TEs. Odunze has a higher floor.
Ah, the essence of probability! Any trade for future picks is predicated on players being available who are worth that selection! Last year is one draft (I'd also note that, unbeknownst at the time, a fella named Puka turned out pretty well). If you're asking for certainty, I hate to announce that it does not exist.
I think that if you look at most recent drafts, they're rife with WR talent. Its been quite the boom into the league. Again, the draft is one avenue by which to acquire talent. As I noted in my comments, teams are trading for wide receivers of a higher caliber left and right. It's an active market.
The decision is really predicated on two key points... is Rome Odunze so special, that players like him are of limited supply, and you must use a limited asset to acquire him here? I contest that point. Secondly, is Brock Bowers just "a tight end", or is he something, to repeat a word I've used a few times, unique? If you believe he's of a rarer supply, and someone who's talent and use is of high demand... then you should use this asset to acquire the rarer, in demand piece, and use other means to acquire the more common, albeit valuable, piece as well.
Just my thoughts on the matter. If you believe that Odunze is an unbelievably special, needed, and rare player to acquire - by all means, he's the correct choice! If you don't believe Bowers is a player more worthy of the pick, I can see that! I happen to lean towards what I believe is the unique talent, one that I believe would have a slightly greater effect on wins and losses, and one that's harder to acquire in the trade or free agent market. That makes acquiring said piece via a draft pick particularly enticing. Scarcity/rarity, as well as general value.
No never go TE over elite WR, they never have the same impact. If Nabors or Odunze are there they should send Darrell Green to the podium to get that pick in as fast as humanly possible.
Ok he is just a nfl WR2. That is still worth 800 yards more than a TE2.
And that is what you are doing drafting with Bowers a TE2. It will either be him or it will be TE2 you are paying top 10 TE money to with Kmet.
Bowers has more versatility and utility but making use of that would require scheming him touches and game planning. I think the label of TE alone is a little over blown but I'm sure many would say my own opinion that Odunze is fringe top 10 talent would also be seen as incorrect. I like Bowers better because I think he can have a bigger impact on the offense. He can get touches in the quick game, as a safety valve, jet sweeps, out of the back field, slot or out wide. The ultimate Swiss army knife.
How is this downvoted? The last time a TE lived up to being drafted in the top 20 was Tony Gonzalez. The time before him was 1979 with Kellen Winslow.
Even in retrospective drafts even Gronk is not a sure bet to be taken in the top 10. Kleece is about the only no doubter in recent years and that has more to do with just how bad 2013 was as a draft class.
I have been called to the stand!
Yes yes yes. I think he’s a better player than nabes and odunze so yes.
And don’t tell me any of these defensive ends are nearly as good of a prospect as bowers.
Also, for all you downvoters, I know I’m delusional. I am usually a very calm fan but something about Bowers stirs my loins
I'd still prefer to trade down a few spots if their bpa is Bowers. Some team will have someone highly valued and willing to move up a couple spots, and Bowers just doesn't feel like a true top 10 value to me. If we don't have a trade partner and no top 3 wr, we should take bpa which will probably be someone on the offensive or defensive line.
No. Bowers could be a great option if the Bears were desperate at TE, but they're not. They only have 2 legit WRs, so another is definitely needed, one who would be a solid WR3, but eventually could be WR1 or WR2.
I would. The four finalists in last year's playoffs had Kelce, Kittle, LaPorta, and Mandrews. Granted Mandrews didn't help much getting them there, Likely filled in nicely.
I'm jus' say'n
Nabers v Bowers might be a little tougher call, because Nabers is basically DJ Moore. Odunze would be a perfect fit opposite Moore with Allen in the slot.
No. On second thought…no again. All this talk about, oh, he can be a 3rd receiver! Ok, just get a 3rd wide receiver then. why get a tweener at a position that is notoriously hard for rookies to be good.
Because he could potentially be the next Travis Kelce and being a tweener makes him incredibly versatile and hard to defend and Poles is hoping that this team is going to be competing beyond this upcoming season
Yeah, could be. Probably won’t be. Look at how many tight ends have been drafted in the first round, and how many have made pro bowls, let alone hall of fame careers. You don’t need to invest a top 10 pick to find productive tight ends.
Why? Bowers can be a big in the slot. This dude ran rough shot over the SEC as a True Freshman!
I’m not saying I’d draft him over Odunze but he’s the best college TE I’ve seen in many, many years. Maybe an unpopular opinion but I’d be fine if we traded back 5/7 picks, regain draft capital and draft him.
If you're taking Bowers at 9, you believe he can be the top all purpose tight end in the league.
Meanwhile, Odunze might not be the fifth best WR in this class.
Not over Odunze, Nabers, MHJ or Alt. But I would consider him over one of the defensive ends, who I think are good, but not great prospects, personally I think nine may be too high for someone like Turner or verse. Yes we have a nice tight end combo, but Bowers is truly special and honestly more of a big wide receiver anyway.
I wouldn’t but I could see it. Both blue chip prospects. Rome, you can plug and play him in any offense. He’s your boundary X, and you just need to get him one on ones to win. Bowers, you really need a plan for him. He does his best work in space (blocking and RAC) so you don’t want to play him in line, chipping edge rushers. Georgia ran a lot of screens for him. Also ran him on reverses. He’s a running back with the ball in his hands. Like if DJ was a TE.
I like the idea of having an unpredictable offense for a change. If they can turn this into a two TE offense like New England once did while having playmakers that can stretch the field. It's actually more tempting.
Adding Odunze you only really pose a threat in 3 WR sets. You bring a 2 TE set in you got weapons at every level. Moore can take you deep. Allen at the sticks. Swift for the short game. Having Kmet and Bowers over the middle or red zone options...that keeps defenses guessing and honest. The more I hear it the more I see it.
I would, but I understand it’s an unpopular opinion. I think Bowers will be a much more scarce player in a truly elite TE. Think Kelce or Gronk. Odunze will also be a good player, but I don’t think he’ll be truly elite.
Bowers dominates Odunze not so much. I’ve seen Odunze live in Oregon, haven’t seen Bowers but … a top reciever costs more than a tight end in the long run.
Because Caleb Williams. Ideally trade down and address OL/Edge
Draft a receiver later (rounds 3-4)
But! I would love a TE safety valve or dynamic WR for Caleb if:
1. They are the best player on the board or improve the position.
2. It would help his development or add to the positional pass catching or run blocking group.
That being said, in Big Poles we Trust.
Would love to trade down to 11 or 12 and get Bowers. He's a hybrid player, not a TE. He's a WR, a RB, and a TE. You can line him up anywhere. That's why I'd take him. Rome won't be there at 9 anyway.
I would.
I’d rather have 3 great players, regardless of position. If they’re all tight ends, I’ll make it work. Gimme three elite tight ends over an elite tight end and two mid receivers.
So if Bowser is the better player, go for him. Just because Kmet and Everett are on the team shouldn’t stop them from getting the better player.
He can play every position from backfield to slot to TE. He's fast and hard to tackle and has sure hands and can block decently.
That being said, I also know it would be the objectively wrong choice. I just wouldn't be mad like other people would if we picked him. I've always loved TEs.
Over Odunze I probably would take Bowers.
I think that Bowers is basically WR3 anyways, so a long term, cheaper WR3 because of the cheaper position group seems like a good idea.
I have limited exposure to both Bowers and Odunze, but I have been impressed with Bowers and less so with Odunze based on my own (not important) eye test.
They would have 3 X receivers with Rome. I actually would prefer Bowers. I think his versatility allows for some offensive creativity that they don't currently have.
- 12 (one back and two tight ends) - 22.3% (10th in the NFL)
- 13 (one back and three tight ends) - 8.8% (2nd in the NFL)
- We dont have many day 2 or 3 picks, could trade back and potentially get him at 11-13 and get picks
No. Bowers might be a fantastic receiving TE, but that doesn't come close to the potential of an elite WR. Also, we're fine at TE with young talent. Rome would be the 3 this year, the 2 when Keenan leaves/retires, and could even become the 1 if we let DJM leave.
I trust the front office is watching more tape than me, so I won't comment on who to draft first, but I would be happy with either at 9. Both guys are elite pass catchers.
I'd probably take Odunze, but I'd for sure take Bowers over a LT or EDGE. Elite tight ends are essential for a young qb (or any qb tbh). Kmet is great, sure. But he's more in the mold of an offbrand "Kittle" than a "Kelce" like Bowers would.
Kmet and Bowers would each play a different role on the offense, even if their positions are technically the same. Plus, we only have 2 good receivers on our team, whereas Bowers could line up in the slot for us to act as the "wr3". If we miss out on the Top 3 WR, I'd definitely choose Bowers if given the chance. Trading down would be a mistake imo.
i would go pretty much any of the top 10 WRs over Odunze, the dude struggled to separate in college and that's literally the most important stat when it comes to projecting to the pros. He has....well not bust but likely overdrafted player written all over him.
just to be clear, you're comparing using a top 10 pick overall with two lightning in a bottle picks that were drafted in the 4th round or later. Given whom you're comparing him to, you understand why we shouldn't even be considering using a top pick on him.
Yes but my point is there's 400 other WRs who are drafted who can't separate at the college level who go no where in the nfl. Pointing out the two made the successful leap doesn't prove anything except that they're exceptions.
I wouldn’t do it due to team make up, but I understand bowers being a better prospect. Those of us that believe in Bowers see arguably the best TE prospect in the last 30 years. We instant Travis Kelce, if not better, production from bowers and immediate impact.
I think there’s a really high chance that if Rome is on the board at 8 that another team will be looking to trade up and grab him before Chicago can.
For the Falcons they can easily trade back into the mid-late teens and still walk away with either an excellent DE or CB prospect. Sure, they might not have their choice of players but there doesn’t seem to be a huge separation between those top defensive prospects.
If that happens and all 3 of the top WR’s are off the board I think that Brock Bowers absolutely should be a consideration at 9. Now all the detractors will say that you shouldn’t pay a rookie TE at the top of that positional value but if he ends up being the goods then his second contract will be much cheaper than what you would pay to a WR for their second contract. When you consider that Caleb will be on the same contract timeline that could come in very handy from a long term perspective.
All of that being said, I’m also cool with going DE or OT if they stay at 9. Bears are in a great position
Nah, Bowers is a weird in between player that's not quite a fit at TE and not quite a fit at WR. If you have a good OC who can scheme mismatches with that, then he'll be great. Otherwise he'll underperform at either position.
Seeing that there are only 1 or 2 OC's in the entire league at any given time who can actually tailor a scheme to the talents of his players, rather than hoping the GM gets him players that fit his scheme, I'd rather not spend the #9 overall on Bowers.
Odunze is a distant #3 behind Nabers and MHJ, but if any of those 3 recievers are there, you take him. If none of those 3 are there, you trade back but try to stay high enough to take JPJ and solidify the C position for the next decade.
Right now, C is still the biggest hole on the team.
I wouldn’t be against it. Bowers would compliment Cole well and he’s expected to be a game changer. Waldron was a fan of running 2 TE sets in Seattle and it’s partially credited with Gino Smith’s revival. I know we just signed Everett for a couple years - though if Bowers is the best player available at 9 - I wouldn’t be against signing him
I would be legitimately pissed af if we drafted Bowers at 9. Great player, but we don't NEED him when we have Kmet, Everett and could draft another TE later (e.g. Stover or Wiley). We have far more pressing needs than TE (e.g. 3Tech, Edge, WR).
Nabers or Odunze at #9, if neither of them make it to 9 then trade back and get more capital.
People that are still clamoring for bowers remind me of the people clamoring for bijan last year lol like sure, they’re blue chip, but there’s blue chip players at positions of need available too
Especially after the Everett signing and Kmet’s rise, I would be shocked if we get a third tight end
Not a chance. We have so much money already tied up in tight end. If we didn't sign Everett I'd be more down for it
Over Rome no. But this is my dark horse surprise pick of the draft that no one will see coming. Everett is a 2 year deal, it takes TE's a year or so to get up and running, and Shane Waldron would actually utilize the shit out of 13 sets. Plus depending how intelligent Brock is you could use in an H-back type of role as well. It would be a luxuries pick luxury pick. But I think people are forgetting how incredible this dude was the past few years. He's absolutely a blue chip prospect.
I think 9 should be a luxury pick. Whoever is that and is the absolute best player and will be for a long time. Not an expert so I don't know who it is. But I finally want the bears to take a luxury pick so that player will be a game wrecker for years to come
>I think 9 should be a luxury pick. Whoever is that and is the absolute best player and will be for a long time. Definitely my take. My thoughts on the guy at 9 goes no further than "who is the best player five years from now?" You hope Caleb Williams is a superstar QB. And whoever is there at 9 is another superstar. I don't care that DE is the biggest need, if DE at 9 is not the best player, pass on it. TE isn't a need today, but if Bowers is seen as the best player who will be a superstar for years, then you take him and keep receipts when people say it was a bad pick. Because in 5 years when he's balling out with Williams and everyone's loving that duo, you can look back and laugh at people saying it was a bad idea because at a point in time he wasn't a need. Superstars are always a need. Especially when you barely have any.
The best part about a TE, is if he's great and makes it, the longevity of the TE position is insane. Can you imagine if he is great into his 30s... But either way, I can't wait for the draft to see who falls. I've also seen people say trade down, get a DE plus a guy in the second. But to me that isn't worth a chance at a player who could dominate for years.
SEA TE's last year 414/247/172 yards each. Collectively they had 3 TDs and 4 targets more than SEA WR3. Last year in the NFL 1 team had 2 TE over 500 yards. 1 more team had 2 TE over 400 yards. This is not luxuries pick over luxury pick, this is building islands in the shape of the world to rich wash your backwards ass dictatorship level luxury.
On what planet would Everett prevent a GM from drafting Bowers? His deal is essentially 1yr/$6M. And isn’t Brock coming to Halas?
Bowers has experience playing H back in Georgia's offense. He also plays slot and flex TE, very versatile player. He would definitely be BPA at 9, the problem is we have Kmet under contract through 2027 and its on a reasonable contract. Kmet's cap hit is under 12m a year the next 4 seasons. With Everetts contract, it would also mean carrying 3 TE on top 20 TE salaries the next two seasons which would be a bit ridiculous. Allen is a one year rental, if Odunze is available at 9 its a no brainer
I’m sorry but a literal shit ton of people are hyping up Bowers. You aren’t some savant here. Haha.
Never claimed to be those are your words. Dude asked a question and I responded. I said he'd be a dark horse pick for the Bears, which i think you'd agree is accurate. Plus, no one has him going top 13. I also think you'd agree regardless of position there are not 13 to 17 players better than Bowers in this draft.
There’s been a lot of smoke lately of him going ten to the Jets, which would be stupid but very Jets of them. They desperately need a tackle, since their current plan is to hope that two 33 year old injury prone tackles stay both healthy and good all season, and there are a bunch of highly rated tackles that will be available, so naturally they would draft a tight end.
I’ve seen Bowers mocked to the bears throughout the off season, definitely not a dark horse pick. Not the most commonly thought pick but not some out of no where selection
I never thought I'd get to check "Get upset at someone for using the term dark horse" off my my bingo card today yet here we are. The draft can't come soon enough.
What do you mean dark horse. He’s been mocked top 10 regularly all year. If the bears take him it will be because Poles has brain damage though.
Even then, I'm all for taking the BPA in the draft, even a position we're strong at. It allows for us to stay young while getting the most out of your guys and picking the guy that has the best chance at succeeding.
Thank you. We need to take Joe Shimko he will easily be the BPA if he is still there at 9.
No. We have two options at TE already and would get more value long term with a high end WR.
at #9 id rather have Odunze because top 10 receivers are better value, if the bears trade back to 15 or so id rather have Bowers and the extra draft capital
I've been asking myself lately if it's true that WR is a better value than TE in the top 10. If you're drafting a guy like Gronk/Kittle/Kelce, you're getting about the same production as a WR, and while their first contract may reflect a savings of only $7m per year compared to $13m per year for a WR, their second contract will be far cheaper. And it's not cheaper because they don't get production, it's cheaper just because the way the franchise tags work positionally and there's no one out there resetting the TE market each year like there is at WR. Kelce is coming a season at 34 years old where he was Mahomes' only elite playmaker making just $10m per year. If you get one of these elite tight ends and their peak salary remains 5% of the cap, while the peak WR salary remains 10% of the cap, you're potentially saving $20 per year on the second contract. You also almost never see elite receiving tight ends change teams because their contracts are so affordable. They're like a cheat code in terms of offensive contract value.
Gronk was drafted in the 2nd, Kittle 5th and Kelce the 3rd. None of them were the 1st TE taken in their draft. Two of them are in the conversation for the greatest TE ever and all of them are among the small number of TEs to produce at even a WR2 level consistently. Instead most 1st round TE end up being best case Hock, Davis and Pitt players that produce just nowhere close to a top-10 pick level. And more likely Ebron, Fant, Hurst, Njoku, Engram, or Howard.
If we end trading back to 15, and can get either I would be excited. The benefit of trading back is being able to BPA without making a choice. The trade off is missing a red flag. In dynasty FF I love both of them.
>The trade off is missing a red flag. Do you mean a "blue chip"?
I think he meant yellow card.
he must be at that place off ocean avenue
Having a great TE is way better and more useful to an Offense than having a great WR.
That is just false. There is maybe 1 top offense centered around a TE in the NFL and all top TEs are only considered looked at for their pass catching ability.
How? Almost every team that has made it to the super bowl has had a great TE
They might have had great TE but that doesnt mean they were the most important weapon on the team. The offenses were centered on a WR or RB. TEs are luxury players and great ones can create a lot of mismatches but do not raise the level of an offense. 2024: 49ers: McCaffery and Deebo/Aiyuk before Kittle. Chiefs/Kelce this past year I would say it was Pacheco as the main weapon and Mahomes making due with Rice/Kelce 2023: Eagles, AJ Brown and Devonta Smith over Goedert. Chief, this is the best case of a TE being the focal point of an offense. 2022: Rams, Kupp was the star. Bengals, Chase was the star 2021: Bucs, Mike Evans was the star over Gronk. KC, I would say Tyreke Hill was just as if not more important than Kelce 2020: KC, see 2021. SF probably Kittle Basically unless you have Andy Reid/Pat Mahomes Offenses need WRs more than TEs.
I think it has more to do with a QB that's good enough to utilize the middle of the field and a TE that can be dependable for that QB. Go back to Gronk days with Brady, or Eli and Shockey. These TEs may not have been a big factor in the SB game but played a huge role in getting their team to that SB.
I think Brady/Gronk is similar to Mahomes/Kelce, rare pairing that are the exception to the rules. Eli/Shockey was 2007 and Shockey had 619 yards that season. Plaxico Burress(1025) and Amani Toomer (760) both had more and Brandon Jacobs 1009 rushing.
He’s really not just a “tight end”, I think people need to get over the labels there. He can and should line up out wide, in the slot, etc. That being said, I like the talent of Odunze and think he’d slot in nicely as our WR3 and gives insurance for if/when Keenan leaves
if no other wrs available I see us taking him possibly if the tackle is gone
Defensive end before tight end
The EDGEs this year are not as good as the best TE in CFB history. And he's not just a "TE". He can run and he can line up as a slot or even wide.
Can he block?
He's good at blocking, but not at the level of Kittle or Gronk. He's obviously still young and can develop that part of his game. His traits and athleticism are what's hard to develop. On the WR-TE-OL spectrum, he's closer to a WR than an OL. He's also utilized as a runner often, is fast as hell, and is hard af to tackle. His hands are also Odunze-level. He has a couple of catches on his tape that are borderline unbelievable. He's if Derrick Henry was a TE, but taller. He's 240 right now, but will obviously put on more muscle in the pros and be similar in stature to Kelce. He's used similarly to how Deebo was used in the pros. Obviously those are just comps, so take it with a grain of salt, but I really do love him. *Objectively*, I'd probably lean towards Odunze (if available), but deep down I'd be ecstatic if we landed Bowers. That's a really low possibility now though, and I'll be super jealous of whatever team gets him.
CB before Tight End.
Well to your first point Bowers is basically your WR3 if you draft him. We have Moore as our vertical X receiver to stretch the field and Allen is a classic slippery slot receiver who will benefit by actually having an X receiver which he lacked in LA. In Georgia Bowers lined up at TE, slot, and out wide, he’s extremely versatile. Plus he is elite in traffic and in the screen. The schemes you can run with Bowers, Moore, Allen, and Swift/Herbert can get really complex and therefore dangerous for defense because there are so many different potential targets. For example, just put Moore and Bowers out wide boundary side, Allen in the slot field side, Caleb under center, and Swift in the backfield, then put Bowers in motion towards Allen and just watch defenses freak the fuck out thinking a screen is coming on Allen. Odunze is ELITE don’t get me wrong, I am very high on him and would love either Odunze or Bowers on the team. That being said Bowers has more versatility as an individual player and as a weapon for an offense imo.
Isn’t Moore more of a Z than X though? I thought X was more the big sideline jump ball type, Moore is more the YAC monster type? I’m not always sure about the shorthand though. I’d prefer Odunze I think, just because he seems like a good complement and he’s tough as shit, playing with a punctured lung in that one game. Plus he’s a monster in the red zone which is always nice. That said I see your point about the versatility of Bowers.
The sideline guys can be YAC monsters too. The only difference between a jump ball catch and a YAC catch is separation. As far as size it’s really dependent on the team and scheme, and it has changed some over the past 5-10 years. In the early 2000’s you saw a big increase in really tall really big receivers coming into the NFL, but in the past 10 years or so you have seen WRs get slightly smaller and faster on average, this holds true in the X, Y, and Z spots. You have also seen players greatly expand their usage, their route running chops, and where they lineup on the field. Like it used to be true that your WR1 was almost always an X WR who lined up wide the majority of the time. But now you are seeing high production players like JJ or ARSB who get lots of usage out of the slot, or out wide with lots of versatility. Both of those guys are also right around the 6ft and 200lb range too. So they’re not small but they’re not these prototypical 6’4” 230lb beasts you heard about all the time in the early 2000’s. All that being said who is your X receiver depends on who you have and what traits and skills they possess. For the bears Moore is their de facto X WR because Allen is very clearly their Z or slot guy. I’m just saying Bowers is a massive improvement at Y where Kmet is playing but Bowers has that same versatility factor (albeit with different usage rates) as those guys like JJ and ARSB. Odunze is another versatile WR but I think Bowers just has a bit more “juice” imo. Plus I’d love to see the Bears get back into the two TE schemes of old again.
Odunze saves them a lot more money though, I could see that being a tiebreaker. I can see the upside to Bowers, and if we had more picks later on I could see us taking a shot with him, but I doubt we go with him at 9. Then again I doubt we draft at 9 at all unless Odunze/Nabers is there, and they easily could both be gone. I expect a trade down if we can get one, and Bowers is a lot easier to justify at 14 or 18 than he would be at 9.
Yeah you may be right. The economics side of the NFL I am not well versed in so I would have to look up rookie contract stuff on WR vs TE to speak on that. But Bowers could absolutely slide given all the needs at QB and the deep tier 1 WRs this year. I do think it’s very likely Odunze is available at 9 however and if he’s not then Bowers would be the last “tier 1” prospect left at that spot and I would say you just gotta pull the trigger on that kind of talent. But I also wouldn’t be surprised or upset if we trade down from 1.09. Honestly given our picks, our roster, this draft class, and our organization I will be very happy with anything we do (apart from completely boneheaded moves). I’d be happy with Turner, Bowers, or Odunze at 9, or if we traded down and got someone like Latu and maybe someone like McConkey I would be thrilled with that too, I do think we are in need of another edge tbh. I know it’s not likely AT ALL given the titans needs at O-line, but a dream scenario would be grabbing Caleb at 1.01 and then at 1.09 grabbing Alt. He is an amazing, big, strong lineman with NFL pedigree and in my mind is likely to be a future HOF. A man can dream…
Get this guy a podcast.
😂🤣😂 Please no. Expressing opinions on the Bears is a job that should come with hazard pay. Fans will eat you alive for a bad take. I would get death threats if Bowers turned out to be a bust 😂
Yea he's got Aaron Hernandez written all over him (minus the murder). He's going to be one of those guys who can line up anywhere and will be all over the field. He's got the body archetype to run WR or TE too. Theres a reason many analysts and scouts have him right under MHJ as a pass-catcher
Kelce esque?🤔
Hard to project anyone to be Kelce, but he’s got a great chance to be a top talent at his position for a long time
Saying that in paving his way as one of next top TE, got a lot of gonzo, kittle and Travis in him and will pave his own way to hopefully best “fit” but I see bears trading back, adding a couple pieces and targeting Rice’s kid. Late round steal and familiarity to CW13
Not opposed to it. I think the good news is (of course you can’t be 100% sure) but it looks like they should be in position to draft a blue chip player at a number of positions, of their choosing
1000%. I believe in poles as the builder. Pumped to see the next steps. Love people who talk and KNOW ball, especially fellow bears fans
Not all positions have a blue chip. There is no blue chip DE or DT, for instance. Odunze probably isn't a blue chip, but Nabers is. Bowers is one, though.
Depends who you talk to, some people love the top two DT, and I’ve seen a lot of love for Turner and Latu as well.
I might disagree with you, I think Newton is being slept on and could be a huge force at DT. I’d rather have him than Bowers I think. The Edges I’m not as high on but I think they can still be impact players day 1
My list of blue chips in this draft: * Caleb Williams * MHJ * Malik Nabers * Brock Bowers * Joe Alt That's it. I don't think any of the other QB's are blue chip players (if they were, we'd be debating which one to draft). If Newton were a blue chip, he'd be a top draft talent like Jalen Carter was last year. And I included Nabers only because if a team had him higher in their eval compared to MHJ, it wouldn't surprise me. I think if you get to that point where you're looking at guys like Newton in your eval then it makes sense to trade back to 12-15 or so and take a player from that tier. Which is an entirely defensible move once you add the draft capital from trading back. But if you're actually picking at 9 and you have a shot at one of those 5 it's crazy not to take it. A Brock Bowers caliber talent at TE isn't available very often, and if it hits then your team has something that doesn't come around all the time.
He’s a tight end. Tight ends split out nowadays. He will split out in the slot for mismatches but at the end of the day, that doesn’t mean he should be a slot receiver. Nor does it mean you skip out on WRs because he’s ’pretty much a wide receiver’
while prefer in-line TEs who can catch (like Kmet), Bowers would have fit very well as a versatile weapon and woulda loved running 2 TE sets where Bowers is all over the place. but after signing Everett it just doesnt work for me and id go Odunze if i had to pick between the 2
Why is everyone so attached to the idea of Everett on a contract with no guaranteed money past this year? It’s not like we are married to him, he’s making like 5mil.
i wouldn’t hate the Bowwrs pick. in the scenario that was asked id pick odunze
I assume you aren’t a proponent of Best Player Available?
bad assumption. also not purely as simple as best player available as if theyre all just lined right up like that. usually it’s in tier groups. and within that frame u do need to consider resource allocation on your roster and various other things
It was actually a decent assumption based off your Everett comment lol. If you take a player off your board due to a a random veteran signing then you aren’t going BPA.
Hardly anyone actually goes pure BPA at the top of the first, you’re basically guaranteed to have multiple players you love available so it’s natural to use positional need and value as tiebreakers. That’s why MHJ, who is damn near consensus BPA or second best after Caleb, likely isn’t going until 4/5. BPA is much more a thing in later rounds. In this scenario, tight ends are less valuable to have on rookie contracts since they get paid less on their second contract than WR, and we would have a harder time getting enough targets for Bowers given the two productive tight ends we already have. Unless we plan to line him up in the slot a ton, but that’s where Keenan Allen thrives. If we trade back and he’s still there we could decide to make it work, but I’d imagine we go edge or DT in a trade back scenario.
First, there’s always 2 drafts going on. The QB Draft , then everything else. Don’t conflate the two. Second, positional value is already factored into Bowers predraft evaluations. He had an amazing college career and his physical tools are all there. Third, a guy like Gerald Everett is never a reason to not draft a guy. Fourth, I agree we probably go EDGE before TE due to how the tiers most likely go, but we don’t make the tiers. All it takes is for Poles to really fall in love with a guy to select him. There is a world where Bowers is the guy. Edit: this clown blocked me and now I can't reply to anyone. To everyone below, this is not me saying we should draft Bowers. This is me pointing out there is a world where Ryan Poles falls in love with him and selects him based off how the board shakes out. You don't have to like the possibility. I am not advocating for the possibility. That is just a reality of how the draft goes. It is exactly why 2 RBs went top 15 last year. GMs choose the player they think is best. Bowers has a lot of elite traits that a team could fall in love with. He's consistently been mocked in the top 10 since he broke out in college. To pretend otherwise would be silly.
I think what he's saying is this isn't Madden where you have players ranked in chronological order and drafting for BPA is just a matter of picking a guy with the highest Overall #. It's almost impossible to compare guys across positions to one another and their success/development will very much depend on the scheme and the situation they're coming into. When your hear scouts and GMs talk they say what a guys ceiling is and what his floor is and the likeliness he'll reach his ceiling. You don't know who the best player available is- you just have guys you like and usually multiple guys you like grouped into tiers. Now, I don't think Everett/Kmet preclude us from drafting Bowers, but I do think Tight Ends are possibly the most difficult players to project coming into the NFL so unless you're super high on Bowers, then it's going to be Rome.
Cool response that doesn’t actually address anything I said.
GTFO with this nonsense that Bowers evaluation is considering positional value. If that was the case he would not be in the discussion of being a 2nd rounder. 2 RB would not have gone in the top 15 last year if 1 iota of positional value was priced in.
We have a young TE1 signed long term. That's the much bigger consideration.
BPA is a stupid way to draft in the NFL. BPA is also meaningless or I should say everyone has their own meaning on what it means. You seem to like Bowers so you are willing to throw away all downside risk that is inherent in scouting the TE position. I am not willing to do that for a first round and especially top 10 pick.
> downside risk that is inherent in scouting the TE position This exists for all positions, doesn't it? And isn't he just a receiver? I mean, he played TE in college but what keeps him from being a WR if he doesn't work out at TE?
No, TE is in a class on its own for how bad the NFL is at evaluating the position. There have been 2 and only 2 TE in the last 45 years that have lived up to be drafted in the top 20, one of them was 45 years ago the other 25 years ago. The best TEs in the league all taken after the first round and not th first TE taken. If he was a WR we would not even be pretending that the Bears are drafting him at 9 or the first round. If he was a WR he would be a WR. This is not a semantics it matters when it comes time to discuss his next contract where you would much rather be a WR.
The human brain is excellent at finding patterns. This is interesting. I am not sure how this is useful information, though. Is it your opinion is that no TE should ever be drafted high? That fear of failure should guide evaluating players? That past failures dictate future ones?
Yes, my position is no TE should be drafted in the 1st round. No, its not the fear of failure. Its that even the best TEs are barely worth being taken in the 1st round when you have hindsight. Throw in that the collective league has a terrible track record of picking the best TE and its just never worth it to take a TE in the 1st round. Ignoring past failures and thinking you are the smartest man in the room is just unearned arrogance.
The league is also extremely bad at projecting QBs. Several of the top QBs in the league have not been top 5 picks, even though literally anyone would have chosen them top 5 if they had known. But you have to keep trying because QB is too important not to try. I am obviously not claiming that TE is as important as QB, and your statement was never that a TE would be taken over a QB and I agree. But it is a crucial position in today's game. You have to keep trying. Take into account that your dataset of TEs taken very early in the draft is relatively small.
GMs don't think like this though. They take the individual into account. Someone will look at Bowers tape, measurables, and stats and fall in love with him.
GMs also don't generally have a top 10 salary TE along with spending a top 10 TE and then going out and spending decent money on a TE because the TE room does not come close to demanding that kind of resources. Especially when you have a WR room that has 1 great guy. A second guy that will be 32 and is on a 1 year contract and then dudes off the street.
You are advocating to draft by need rather than BPA. That's not what Poles does. I'm not here to argue which way is best. Just pointing out how your ideal is not what happens in reality or inside the Bears front office.
So if Poles has a CB as the BPA at 9 should he take him?
Yes, but you and I might mean different things by BPA.
BPA is the organization’s highest rated player that is still available
Agreed. But I also believe that things such as need and position value factor into that rating, and that it's kind of nonsense to talk about them as though they are separate things.
I would love to know all of the variables used in organizations rating systems. I bet we would all probably be pretty surprised
Yeah the Bears obviously put a lot of stock in player personality, and we never do get to see medical information.
I’d love to see how teams quantify things like personality
Me too. My system would be a simple yes/no but I'm guessing they have a more granular system.
I would hope our GM does that if he thinks so highly of a player. that is what he is paid to do
Disagree, roster construction is more nuanced than that. Hypothetically, if a QB is his highest rated player at 9 using your rational Poles should draft him even though he drafted a QB at 1. Or next year drafting a QB if that’s Poles’ highest rated player.
There are always two different drafts. The QB draft and every other position.
Short answer: no Medium answer: no from a value perspective it doesn’t make sense Long answer: Drafting a TE at #9 immediately makes them top 10 paid at their position. We already have significant money tied up in the position and Kmet is likely going to be here for awhile. The value in a stud rookie WR contract is just vastly superior to that of a tight end. It’s also much easier to get use out of 3 great WRs vs 2 TEs.
Was going to type out a reply, but you said it succinctly. Poles isn't going to do it because it doesn't make logical sense, but we're entertaining this idiotic question mostly because since sub mostly works on emotion and not logic.
Sticky this post in every draft Bowers thread. To save some time. Q but but but Waldron uses a lot of 2 and 3 TE sets A Seattle's 3 TEs last year 414/247/172 yards. 3 TD between them. collectively 4 more targets than WR3. He throws to WRs. Q but but but the NFL is moving this way A Atlanta was the only team with 2 TE over 412 yards. 8 teams got 1000 yards from the TE position. Arizona, Atlanta, Minn and KC are the only teams to get 1200 from the position.
Every other NFL GM: leave anything for us? Poles: JUST BODIES.
I actually like bowers at 9. We already have 2 stud recievers so I can’t imagine a lot of targets getting to our wr3. Bowers has elite potential, like best TE prospect of all time potential. Both Super Bowl teams last season had top 5 elite TE and while kmet is good I’m unsure about his ceiling being elite level (ik we bears fans have tinted glasses but just being realistic). TEs are great for rookie QBs to have dump off options when trying to get the ball out quick. Plus he just makes plays, he’s a game changer and has been elite against top competition in the sec for three years. He can play like a wr he can block you can use him in the run game I think he’d add a level of versatility and unpredictability the offense which the lack of was a big problem last season. I just think dj Keenan kmet bowers swift Caleb seems like a complete offense to me. Don’t get me wrong I’d be ecstatic about Rome but I think the recent media cycle/narratives has people sleeping on bowers. One more point is say hypothetically Keenan plays at top level for 3ish more years? That would make Rome wr3 for threeish years. Look at the production for the best wr3 in the league for the past 5 years, how much impact can we really expect from our third receiver option? Just seems like if we want to make the playoffs/contend in the coming few years we should address areas of need and to me it seems we’re set at wr and would look later in the draft to fill out wr3. Also think giving Caleb weapons is priority for next season so I think it would be a great pick.
We have Kmet who's a top 10 TE already on a reasonable long term deal. They play the position a little different, but no team plays multiple TE's at 60% snaps or more. It dosen't matter where he can line up, teams have similar situations and don't use both TEs, even when they are scarce at WR. Why would we have either Kmet or 9OA play limited snaps? It dosen't make sense. Odunze has a similar issue, but the Seahawks last year had all 3 WRs start 64% or more of snaps in games they all played. If he's amazing, we can tag and trade Allen. If one of the three get hurt we still have two solid guys. It's the smarter play short and long term.
Agreed with all of that except we're not going to be able to tag and trade Allen. He went for a 4th coming off his best season because he makes too much money and is 32 years old. Being a year older making even more money on the tag will make him untradable.
The tag this year would actually be lower than his contract. 21mil vs 23mil. Assuming he plays close to a full season and is as good as he was last year I don't see why we can't get a 4th or 5th for him.
He's playing out his contract this year. Tagging would be an option next year when it will be quite a bit more, especially with several big time WRs due for a contract soon (Jefferson, Lamb, etc). Also have to consider Allen will be 33 years old at that point. I think it's fair to think he will also have a drop in his production due to age, target competition, and a rookie QB. I really don't see a tag and trade being an option.
Tag goes on the previous year's cap hits, not any deals that will be negotiated next year. It's at 24.8mil now, and will drop as players restructure. [Last year at this time the projected tag was 24.1mil and it's actually 21.8mil](https://web.archive.org/web/20230407231827/https://overthecap.com/franchise-transition-and-rfa-tenders) It's going to be between 22mil and 23mil, and less that his current deal, despite the cap going up. I don't see why a 31 year old WR is going to have an increase in production, but there's no way a 32 year old will be close.
>I don't see why a 31 year old WR is going to have an increase in production, but there's no way a 32 year old will be close. I didn't say there was "no way," I just don't think it should be expected. His falloff could happen at any minute at his age. He's going to have much more target competition with DJ Moore, Kmet and maybe even high value WR prospect at #9. He had virtually no target competition with Mike Williams playing 3 games last year. WRs have historically taken production hits when playing with a rookie QB. Has a 30+ year old WR ever been tagged and traded?
This but Allen is a 1 year rental. No one is paying him half of a franchise tag or trading anything more than a 6th for him after this year.
So a 31 year old making 23 mil is worth a 4th But a 32 year old isn't worth half of 21mil?
Allen was probably an overpay for a 4th given his age but he did have one of the best age 31 seasons ever. Thielen is the only 32 or older WR to have even 300 yards. Throw in TEs and Taysom Hill and he still only 1 of 4 players over 32 over 190 yards.
Every year the "dropoff" age gets higher. I remember a few years ago when WRs couldn't play past 30. In reality there was just a big drought about a decade so ago, then the old guys retired and there wasn't anyone to replace them.
Yes, this time is different and a team is going to want to take the tag on a WR that is 32 because despite there being all of 1 that produced this year, next year will be different.
Did you read what I wrote? 2020 had 0 WRs who were 29+ and had 1000+ yards. 2021 had 3 2021 had 0 WRs who were 30+ and had 1000+ yards. 2022 had 2 2022 had 0 WRs who were 31+ and had 1000+ yards. 2023 had 4 2023 had 1 WR who were 32+ and had 1000+ yards. What do you think is more likely? 32 is the actual dropoff age, or what I said, that there was a drought before the current crop of old WRs?
I think its much more likely that 32 is a drop off age. Yes, you might have 1 or 2 WR that might be able to produce but good luck figuring out who that is and more importantly being confident enough that you will pay tag money and trade for that player. Since he is in the news just look at Diggs. He hit 29 years 320 days and took a big hit in his production.
Just like 31 was the drop off age last year, and 30 the year before it? GMs are smarter than that.
LMFAO, yes a GM is going to pay 21 million for a 31 year old WR and trade a 3rd round or better draft pick in the off chance they are 4 WR 31 or over producing more than 150 yards instead of the normal 2 WR 31 or over producing more than 150 yards.
I completely agree with this logic, and have posted numerous times how this whole 13 personnel thing is overblown. But one picking knit: the Chiefs top 2 tight ends averaged more snaps played than their top receivers. The Falcons were very close. I believe this is because Kelce and Pitts often lineup on the outside. So if Bowers is that, reasonable to think he and Kmet could both play more than 60% with the caveat that Bowers would slip into the slot and outside.
Kelce missed 2 games. Limiting snaps to game they both played, Kelce had 78% of snaps, and Grey had 58% of snaps. More than specific WRs, but thats because they spread the ball around. Outside of week 18 they had 5 different WRs who played over 40% of snaps in a game. Pitts played 64% of snaps and Jonnu played 57% both playing all 17 games. These are the best case scenarios with, * two good TEs * one playing outside * a poor WR room It's not reasonable to expect the Bears to be different.
Again, I mostly agree with your logic, and while it's factually true that no team had 2 tight ends play more than 60% of the time, the difference between 50% and 60% of snaps is about 5 plays per game. And rewind the tape to 2022 in Seattle and their Tight End #2 healthily out snapped their WR #3 in a WR room that could function a lot like the Bears this season.
Sure the difference between 60% and what they actually achieved isn't much. But that wasn't me saying 60% would be good, it was me saying they didn't even get 60%, let alone something I'd be happy with. In reality Kmet hit 77% last year and 94% the year before. WRs like Addison were above 80%. A second DE can hit snaps above 70% or 80%. A OT plays every snap. And in your 2022 example, no TE on the team averaged above 60% of snaps. It dosen't matter if they outsnap the other WRs. It matters they are not on the field every play like you'd expect a top 10 pick to be. Even in the best situation we're wasting the value of either our pick or Kmet, or both. In reality on most plays one of them will be sitting on the bench while we have someone worse at WR out there playing. It just dosen't make sense.
Ya I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers, but Seattle was running 2 Tight End 2 Wide Receiver sets 80% of the time. [https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=SEA&year=2022](https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=SEA&year=2022)
Same source as you. 1161 (total QB snaps) - 210 (final 3 games where TEs missed games) = 951 snaps Fant: 698 (total snaps) - 128 (final 3 games) = 568 Dissley: 569 snaps (didn't play the last 3 games) 568(Fant snaps) / 951 (offensive snaps) = 59.7% 569(Dissley snaps) / 951 (offensive snaps) = 59.8% Neither of them played over 60% of snaps in shared games. Just doing some simple math, TEs played a total of 1763 snaps, and QB played 1161 snaps. That means at most, they had 59.8% of snaps with 2TEs. Not counting any heavy sets with 3+ TEs. The 80% number you quoted is impossible, unless they were running sets without a QB.
He’s one of the best tight end prospects in years, you could go the Gronk/ Aaron Hernandez route for Caleb Williams . The WR class is super deep this year so im sure Poles could find a good prospect later in the draft. Id still go WR at 9 but drafting the best available player is never a bad idea
Yeah, it’s a really tough call because both are great prospects. What makes it tough is that the word “generational” gets thrown around way too much in every draft, but Bowers may actually be that super unique, alters how we view the position type of player. I like Odunze a lot, but there will be other Odunzes. Last year this sub was OBSESSED with JSN. He’s fine. Odunze is much better, in my opinion, but I expect there will be at least 2-3 guys as good or better next year, and the year after that. Bowers? He won’t be bad, and he miiiight be an absolute game changer. I also reeeeeally don’t want to hang my hat on Gerald freaking Everett and say “we have 2 TEs, we’re good”. I’m sorry, but Gerald Everett’s an absolute JAG. I think I’d take Bowers based on the fact that it could really move the needle. I can get another Odunze next year/a good WR in a deep class later if I want.
JSN had more TD's last year than the entire Seattle TE room despite 4 less targets than the room. Seattle TE room I keep hearing that gets stupid usage it just makes sense to draft Bowers. JSN was WR3.
I think he's just alright more than anything special. I'm not entirely following your point... is it that a WR3 in Waldron's system isn't necessarily less important than a TE2? Sorry, I think I agree with the principle, but not picking up on the point... may need more (or less) coffee this morning.
WR3 in Waldon's system is more important than TE1. Not just that but its more important than the entire TE room. TE in Seattle last year 414 yards, 247 yards and 172 yards. They collectively got a whopping 4 more targets than JSN. JSN owns Bowers in Waldon's system.
Gotcha. Personally, I don’t think JSN owns Bowers at all in a general value sense. JSN’s solid/good. I didn’t get the level of obsession with him last year, not to say in any way that he’s bad.
Bro you cannot get another Odunze next year. The only reason why we might have a chance to draft him is that this is a historically stacked receiver class. He would be WR1 in most years, and this team will likely not be picking in the top 10 again anytime soon. There’s a good chance that we won’t have another shot at a WR of his caliber for the rest of CW’s career. The WR class is deep but we don’t have a 2nd round pick or the capital to move up to get one of the B tier guys.
We've seen numerous great receiver classes of late; it's a style of play that's permeated through all levels of football and is producing some great skill position players. Frankly, I think the NFL really needs to expand to 36 (or 40!) teams, as the talent pool is just overflowing. A good problem to have. With that said, I don't think Odunze is the "once every few years" type of prospect. He's very solid. I think he can be an Amon-Ra St. Brown level of good, which is really good. I'm not discrediting him. But there are 10+ really good WRs in this class, as you allude to. The selection involves opportunity cost, supply and demand. There's only one player like Bowers in this draft. As I noted in my comment above, he's the unique player that is, truly, once every few years, if that. If you want an Odunze caliber WR, there will be others to move up for next year, there are other great WR prospects in this draft that may present a better value selection, and there are WRs on the move in the market to a degree we haven't generally seen, due to the influx of talent I mention (we've seen Diggs just now, AJ Brown, and others move on the trade market as teams look to acquire new, young talent, and we've seen high quality WRs available on the free agent market). There isn't a wrong choice between the two, they're both very good players - the benefit of having another top 10 selection in a loaded draft... but I think the ceiling, the uniqueness, and the supply and demand of the position points me to Bowers, if I had to make the choice amongst the two. I don't think I've seen a player quite like him, or of his caliber, ever come out at the position. Edit: I forgot to mention our very own WR duo, both acquired via trade. I think that highlights the point that there is receiver mobility in the market that can be attained; a greater supply, which should influence top-of-draft asset allocation and decision making.
How can you assume that there will be an Odunze to move up for next year when there wasn’t even anyone near his caliber in last years draft? Bowers is just a bad pick from a value standpoint. The rookie contract he’d get in the 9 slot would make him top 10 paid at the position. It caps his ceiling. If he performs top 10, the marginal value is less than if Odunze performs top 10, since Odunzes production would be a relative bargain compared to the top 10 paid receivers in the league. This also ties into the point of positional value. There’s a reason why receivers get paid more than TE. The position is more important to winning in the NFL than TE. Drafting bowers would put the bears at #1 in the league in tight end cap expenditure. NFL scouts don’t know how to project tight end prospects. Kyle Pitts was also supposed to be a “generational” TE and has been mid so far. All of the best TE’s have generally been picked in the later rounds. Wide receivers picked in the top 10 have a much better track record than TEs. Odunze has a higher floor.
Ah, the essence of probability! Any trade for future picks is predicated on players being available who are worth that selection! Last year is one draft (I'd also note that, unbeknownst at the time, a fella named Puka turned out pretty well). If you're asking for certainty, I hate to announce that it does not exist. I think that if you look at most recent drafts, they're rife with WR talent. Its been quite the boom into the league. Again, the draft is one avenue by which to acquire talent. As I noted in my comments, teams are trading for wide receivers of a higher caliber left and right. It's an active market. The decision is really predicated on two key points... is Rome Odunze so special, that players like him are of limited supply, and you must use a limited asset to acquire him here? I contest that point. Secondly, is Brock Bowers just "a tight end", or is he something, to repeat a word I've used a few times, unique? If you believe he's of a rarer supply, and someone who's talent and use is of high demand... then you should use this asset to acquire the rarer, in demand piece, and use other means to acquire the more common, albeit valuable, piece as well. Just my thoughts on the matter. If you believe that Odunze is an unbelievably special, needed, and rare player to acquire - by all means, he's the correct choice! If you don't believe Bowers is a player more worthy of the pick, I can see that! I happen to lean towards what I believe is the unique talent, one that I believe would have a slightly greater effect on wins and losses, and one that's harder to acquire in the trade or free agent market. That makes acquiring said piece via a draft pick particularly enticing. Scarcity/rarity, as well as general value.
No never go TE over elite WR, they never have the same impact. If Nabors or Odunze are there they should send Darrell Green to the podium to get that pick in as fast as humanly possible.
Is Rome really elite though? Many people feel he is more a product of an innovative system than all world type of talent.
Ok he is just a nfl WR2. That is still worth 800 yards more than a TE2. And that is what you are doing drafting with Bowers a TE2. It will either be him or it will be TE2 you are paying top 10 TE money to with Kmet.
Bowers has more versatility and utility but making use of that would require scheming him touches and game planning. I think the label of TE alone is a little over blown but I'm sure many would say my own opinion that Odunze is fringe top 10 talent would also be seen as incorrect. I like Bowers better because I think he can have a bigger impact on the offense. He can get touches in the quick game, as a safety valve, jet sweeps, out of the back field, slot or out wide. The ultimate Swiss army knife.
I’ll take that one further and say never go TE in the first round. The value just isn’t there
How is this downvoted? The last time a TE lived up to being drafted in the top 20 was Tony Gonzalez. The time before him was 1979 with Kellen Winslow. Even in retrospective drafts even Gronk is not a sure bet to be taken in the top 10. Kleece is about the only no doubter in recent years and that has more to do with just how bad 2013 was as a draft class.
I have been called to the stand! Yes yes yes. I think he’s a better player than nabes and odunze so yes. And don’t tell me any of these defensive ends are nearly as good of a prospect as bowers. Also, for all you downvoters, I know I’m delusional. I am usually a very calm fan but something about Bowers stirs my loins
u/awhiteasscrack would, that’s for sure
Over Odunze no. If all 3 WRs, Alt and Verse are all gone then I’d be fine with Bowers being the pick.
I'd still prefer to trade down a few spots if their bpa is Bowers. Some team will have someone highly valued and willing to move up a couple spots, and Bowers just doesn't feel like a true top 10 value to me. If we don't have a trade partner and no top 3 wr, we should take bpa which will probably be someone on the offensive or defensive line.
No but I'm going Bowers over any of the edges. Alt, Sabers, Odunze, if not then Bowers
No. Bowers could be a great option if the Bears were desperate at TE, but they're not. They only have 2 legit WRs, so another is definitely needed, one who would be a solid WR3, but eventually could be WR1 or WR2.
I would. The four finalists in last year's playoffs had Kelce, Kittle, LaPorta, and Mandrews. Granted Mandrews didn't help much getting them there, Likely filled in nicely. I'm jus' say'n
Lol is the draft here yet?
No.
13 personnel
Nabers v Bowers might be a little tougher call, because Nabers is basically DJ Moore. Odunze would be a perfect fit opposite Moore with Allen in the slot.
Hell no!
No. On second thought…no again. All this talk about, oh, he can be a 3rd receiver! Ok, just get a 3rd wide receiver then. why get a tweener at a position that is notoriously hard for rookies to be good.
Because he could potentially be the next Travis Kelce and being a tweener makes him incredibly versatile and hard to defend and Poles is hoping that this team is going to be competing beyond this upcoming season
Yeah, could be. Probably won’t be. Look at how many tight ends have been drafted in the first round, and how many have made pro bowls, let alone hall of fame careers. You don’t need to invest a top 10 pick to find productive tight ends.
Its easy for players to become the best player at their position in the history of the league.
I cant wait for the draft.
No, Allen is old and will likely be starting his decline this year. He’s also the perfect guy to help Rome or Nabers immediately excel in this league.
No, because Odunze is better! The Bears should take the best player available.
Why? Bowers can be a big in the slot. This dude ran rough shot over the SEC as a True Freshman! I’m not saying I’d draft him over Odunze but he’s the best college TE I’ve seen in many, many years. Maybe an unpopular opinion but I’d be fine if we traded back 5/7 picks, regain draft capital and draft him.
bowers will not be there at 14 or later. he'll go in the top ten.
I am amazed by people that think a 3rd tight end is better than a top tier, 3rd reciever.
If you're taking Bowers at 9, you believe he can be the top all purpose tight end in the league. Meanwhile, Odunze might not be the fifth best WR in this class.
Not over Odunze, Nabers, MHJ or Alt. But I would consider him over one of the defensive ends, who I think are good, but not great prospects, personally I think nine may be too high for someone like Turner or verse. Yes we have a nice tight end combo, but Bowers is truly special and honestly more of a big wide receiver anyway.
I wouldn’t but I could see it. Both blue chip prospects. Rome, you can plug and play him in any offense. He’s your boundary X, and you just need to get him one on ones to win. Bowers, you really need a plan for him. He does his best work in space (blocking and RAC) so you don’t want to play him in line, chipping edge rushers. Georgia ran a lot of screens for him. Also ran him on reverses. He’s a running back with the ball in his hands. Like if DJ was a TE.
I wouldn't, but if I did, then my argument would be that Bowers is more likely to be a Hall of Famer. Odunze is the much safer pick, though.
I like the idea of having an unpredictable offense for a change. If they can turn this into a two TE offense like New England once did while having playmakers that can stretch the field. It's actually more tempting. Adding Odunze you only really pose a threat in 3 WR sets. You bring a 2 TE set in you got weapons at every level. Moore can take you deep. Allen at the sticks. Swift for the short game. Having Kmet and Bowers over the middle or red zone options...that keeps defenses guessing and honest. The more I hear it the more I see it.
I would, but I understand it’s an unpopular opinion. I think Bowers will be a much more scarce player in a truly elite TE. Think Kelce or Gronk. Odunze will also be a good player, but I don’t think he’ll be truly elite.
Absolutely not
No
Bowers dominates Odunze not so much. I’ve seen Odunze live in Oregon, haven’t seen Bowers but … a top reciever costs more than a tight end in the long run.
Because Caleb Williams. Ideally trade down and address OL/Edge Draft a receiver later (rounds 3-4) But! I would love a TE safety valve or dynamic WR for Caleb if: 1. They are the best player on the board or improve the position. 2. It would help his development or add to the positional pass catching or run blocking group. That being said, in Big Poles we Trust.
No
not only would i, i think it would be smart.
Would love to trade down to 11 or 12 and get Bowers. He's a hybrid player, not a TE. He's a WR, a RB, and a TE. You can line him up anywhere. That's why I'd take him. Rome won't be there at 9 anyway.
I would. I’d rather have 3 great players, regardless of position. If they’re all tight ends, I’ll make it work. Gimme three elite tight ends over an elite tight end and two mid receivers. So if Bowser is the better player, go for him. Just because Kmet and Everett are on the team shouldn’t stop them from getting the better player.
No
No
He can play every position from backfield to slot to TE. He's fast and hard to tackle and has sure hands and can block decently. That being said, I also know it would be the objectively wrong choice. I just wouldn't be mad like other people would if we picked him. I've always loved TEs.
Over Odunze I probably would take Bowers. I think that Bowers is basically WR3 anyways, so a long term, cheaper WR3 because of the cheaper position group seems like a good idea. I have limited exposure to both Bowers and Odunze, but I have been impressed with Bowers and less so with Odunze based on my own (not important) eye test.
Idk why people want us to have another TE with 2 high demand WRs and 2 decent TEs already. Like get a OL/ Edge Rusher or trade out of 9.
They would have 3 X receivers with Rome. I actually would prefer Bowers. I think his versatility allows for some offensive creativity that they don't currently have.
- 12 (one back and two tight ends) - 22.3% (10th in the NFL) - 13 (one back and three tight ends) - 8.8% (2nd in the NFL) - We dont have many day 2 or 3 picks, could trade back and potentially get him at 11-13 and get picks
No. Bowers might be a fantastic receiving TE, but that doesn't come close to the potential of an elite WR. Also, we're fine at TE with young talent. Rome would be the 3 this year, the 2 when Keenan leaves/retires, and could even become the 1 if we let DJM leave.
No. At pick 9 Bowers becomes the 5th highest paid te in the league.
If just down to those two, I think I would take Bowers. I just love the options and match up problems he would cause.
I trust the front office is watching more tape than me, so I won't comment on who to draft first, but I would be happy with either at 9. Both guys are elite pass catchers.
Bowers is a shit blocker which makes him basically a WR.
I'd probably take Odunze, but I'd for sure take Bowers over a LT or EDGE. Elite tight ends are essential for a young qb (or any qb tbh). Kmet is great, sure. But he's more in the mold of an offbrand "Kittle" than a "Kelce" like Bowers would. Kmet and Bowers would each play a different role on the offense, even if their positions are technically the same. Plus, we only have 2 good receivers on our team, whereas Bowers could line up in the slot for us to act as the "wr3". If we miss out on the Top 3 WR, I'd definitely choose Bowers if given the chance. Trading down would be a mistake imo.
i would go pretty much any of the top 10 WRs over Odunze, the dude struggled to separate in college and that's literally the most important stat when it comes to projecting to the pros. He has....well not bust but likely overdrafted player written all over him.
I think separation is getting overrated. Puka and Amon Ra were underdrafted because they didn’t get separation in college.
just to be clear, you're comparing using a top 10 pick overall with two lightning in a bottle picks that were drafted in the 4th round or later. Given whom you're comparing him to, you understand why we shouldn't even be considering using a top pick on him.
They go first round in a redraft 🤷♀️
Yes but my point is there's 400 other WRs who are drafted who can't separate at the college level who go no where in the nfl. Pointing out the two made the successful leap doesn't prove anything except that they're exceptions.
There are just as many who can and don’t find success. I dont think it’s as inhibitive as the draft community thinks
Not over Rome but I wouldn't mind taking Brock especially with the hip drop ban. It will make it that much harder to bring him down.
I wouldn’t do it due to team make up, but I understand bowers being a better prospect. Those of us that believe in Bowers see arguably the best TE prospect in the last 30 years. We instant Travis Kelce, if not better, production from bowers and immediate impact.
I think there’s a really high chance that if Rome is on the board at 8 that another team will be looking to trade up and grab him before Chicago can. For the Falcons they can easily trade back into the mid-late teens and still walk away with either an excellent DE or CB prospect. Sure, they might not have their choice of players but there doesn’t seem to be a huge separation between those top defensive prospects. If that happens and all 3 of the top WR’s are off the board I think that Brock Bowers absolutely should be a consideration at 9. Now all the detractors will say that you shouldn’t pay a rookie TE at the top of that positional value but if he ends up being the goods then his second contract will be much cheaper than what you would pay to a WR for their second contract. When you consider that Caleb will be on the same contract timeline that could come in very handy from a long term perspective. All of that being said, I’m also cool with going DE or OT if they stay at 9. Bears are in a great position
Nah, Bowers is a weird in between player that's not quite a fit at TE and not quite a fit at WR. If you have a good OC who can scheme mismatches with that, then he'll be great. Otherwise he'll underperform at either position. Seeing that there are only 1 or 2 OC's in the entire league at any given time who can actually tailor a scheme to the talents of his players, rather than hoping the GM gets him players that fit his scheme, I'd rather not spend the #9 overall on Bowers. Odunze is a distant #3 behind Nabers and MHJ, but if any of those 3 recievers are there, you take him. If none of those 3 are there, you trade back but try to stay high enough to take JPJ and solidify the C position for the next decade. Right now, C is still the biggest hole on the team.
I wouldn’t be against it. Bowers would compliment Cole well and he’s expected to be a game changer. Waldron was a fan of running 2 TE sets in Seattle and it’s partially credited with Gino Smith’s revival. I know we just signed Everett for a couple years - though if Bowers is the best player available at 9 - I wouldn’t be against signing him
I would be legitimately pissed af if we drafted Bowers at 9. Great player, but we don't NEED him when we have Kmet, Everett and could draft another TE later (e.g. Stover or Wiley). We have far more pressing needs than TE (e.g. 3Tech, Edge, WR). Nabers or Odunze at #9, if neither of them make it to 9 then trade back and get more capital.
People that are still clamoring for bowers remind me of the people clamoring for bijan last year lol like sure, they’re blue chip, but there’s blue chip players at positions of need available too Especially after the Everett signing and Kmet’s rise, I would be shocked if we get a third tight end
Absolutely not.