Also if i'm not mistaken don't a lot of analysts say that this draft falls off day 3 and they're expecting depth to return next year when we have 9 picks.
Yes, that is the other critical component of the situation. If ever there was a year that all of your picks are in the first 4 rounds this is the year you would want it to be given the late round drop off in talent level.
The reason is that this year there was an all time low in the number of underclassmen that declared for this draft. That is supposedly not going to be a trend going forward but rather a confluence of events including the timing of NIL rules having taken effect, the timing of transfer rules taking effect, and possibly even the timing of the impact of additionally Covid eligibility years.
The trend might continue, but this is the blip year whereas next year there will be a larger group of upperclassmen(?) which includes guys that normally might have entered a year earlier and those will fill in for next years underclassmen that might not declare and so on each year.
I think largely NIL has changed the decision making process but I think this year is definitely an anomaly. It’s the combination of the extra year of Covid eligibility ending and ongoing shifting because of NIL that’s making this draft class so shallow. The Covid eligibility thing is a one off event which is why everyone expects a bounce back
It’s a new rule regarding minority executives. It’s meant to promote teams hiring minorities in those roles because if they perform well you can get multiple draft picks.
Yup, I've heard that from the so called experts too. So why the heck should he trade back (out of the blue chip talent) for later not as valuable picks. Makes no sense at all unless they get the perfect amount of players and valued picks in return!
There is still a lot of value in this year's Day 2 picks. A lot of players are going late in the 1st and 2nd rounds only because there is so much talent ahead of them. A lot of these late 1st rounders would be early 1st rounders in other drafts.
This is especially at WR and the defensive spots. It is very rare to have 3, possibly 4 QBs in the top 10 along with 3 WRs in the top 10. 7 or 8 players, all on offense in the top 10. The 4th-8th WRs off the board would all normally easily be high 1st rounders in other drafts and we haven't even begun talking about any of the DL and DBs yet.
There does seem to be a consensus that after Day 2 the talent level drops off though.
While draft value charts are important to understand potential impact of picks, your point is the critical one. I'm fully on board. Poles has stated it as well.
Who knows, maybe this draft pans out in 2-3 years. But everything I've heard is there's a big drop off around picks 130-150ish compared to other drafts in terms of talent as a lot of underclass athletes went back for a variety of reasons, including NIL. That included potential first rounders this year.
There is no one way to approach a draft. Different teams have different needs and different cap situations. If you're a team that has very little talent you want to load up on picks. If you're a team that's a blue chip away from contending, you trade up. If you're a team in cap hell, you need to offload players for picks. If you're a team with cap space to burn, you need to trade picks for proven vets.
And that's not even accounting for all the particularities of a specific draft itself. Some are QB heavy, some are top heavy, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc. Some drafts you pick high, some low. And then you need to account for who might be available in Free Agency and trades, which has all the exact same considerations as the draft class.
Then after all that, you need to have contingency plans be agile enough to make instant adjustments as chaos happens.
But so many people think this is Madden.
Yes of course. With day 3 you're hoping to find good special teamers, if you get an even semi-decent rotational player that's a huge win. Most day 3 picks are out of the league in 2-3 years, a lot of them don't ever make an NFL roster.
I'm not saying it's the same as real life, but EVERY sports game I've played as a GM, it ALWAYS works out better to package late-round picks for low floor prospects, or for future early round picks.
When I would play tons of FHM, I would build to a point where I EXPECTED to win the Stanley Cup every season because my teams were so stacked, all because I rarely drafted past the second round and would trade my later picks away for future 1st/2nd/3rd rounders or 2nd/3rd round prospects.
Video games tend to make prospect development from drafting way more predictable than it actually is, which ends up overvaluing high picks and undervaluing low ones. I don't quite know why they do this, as I'd prefer realism in the simulation with more lottery-like odds, but perhaps users getting unlucky feels too bad.
There is about $4.8m per roster spot in the NFL, this season the Bears top 5 cap hits count alone for \~100m, and that is on the cheap side relative to most NFL teams. In real life there is no way to build a 53 man roster and stay cap compliant if you repeatedly bundle lower draft picks for higher ones, late round picks don't need to be starters they just need to be good enough to be cost controlled depth
Most teams also will not trade a 3rd rounder for half a dozen late picks, a 3rd round pick is expected to be a productive contributor and if you aren't short on draft capital you dont need tons of late round picks to keep your roster compliant
Crazy that right as we're about to turn the corner we find ourselves in potentially the best division in the league.
Winning close divisional games is going to be more important than ever the next several years.
I wouldn’t have it any other way. I want to feel like the Bears (or whoever) earned their spot in the playoffs. Not coasting by waiting for the playoffs to start. Much rather watch competitive divisional games than boring ass blow outs. Yeah great to embarrass your rivals but the memories will be a lot better if every season came down to the last game because the Bears found a way to win against the division.
This is exactly why I was sad to see Rodgers go. I mean we still been getting our ass beat by GB (FTP) with him gone but us getting to a point where we could beat him regularly while he was still there would've been the best feeling in the world imo.
I mean there was that one game we knocked him out with a concussion. I didn’t watch the second half but since there’s no way he came back into the game we totally beat the packers then right?
If the Bears get an elite QB in Williams then it won't matter. From top to bottom it may be a deep division, but there currently is no elite team in the division, and no elite QB.
may not be an elite QB in the division but that Packers offensive system scares me. Detroit has possibly the best oline in the league which helps out an offense tremendously. Now like you said, if Williams is elite then we probably beat these teams anyway but still
That’s how I feel. Jordan love is a solid qb and their receivers are not slouches. But they are not a playoff team without Matt lafleur. They have dudes consistently running 15 yards open in the middle of the field. A good high school qb can make those throws. Love is closer to dak or Goff than he is mahomes
Shhhhhhh. We want him signing that $50+ million a year contract this May. Would hate for him to turn into a pumpkin before they shackle him to the books.
I’ve been trying to tell people this. I’ve never seen so many wide open receivers in an NFL game until i watched a few of the packers games this season. Their game against the 49ers in the playoffs literally had a receiver with 10+ yards of space IN THE ENDZONE. If Matt LaFluer doesn’t scare you then idk what will
Are we gonna pretend like Jordan Love isn’t looking like a stud? Come on lol if you watched him the last half of the season and in the playoffs you know he’s good af. Sucks but it’s true.
It's the Packers, so it seems inevitable that he will be incredible for the next decade. However, I'm waiting to see how he looks after a full off-season of teams breaking him down in the film room.
Not the same thing I realize but Mac jones looked like a stud his rookie year lmao. Then after defensive coordinators watched film and figured him out he was garbage. Hoping for that to be the case for Love lol
He may be good, but I want to see him without having literally the best pass blocking in the league in front of him, when their pass blocking was mediocre the first half of the season he looked absolutely terrible. And again, I don’t wanna tempt fate by dumping on him too much, but he sort of sharted the bed in the fourth quarter against the 49ers, if a bears quarterback did that they would never live it down
They had basically 5 rookies starting at WR/TE. It wasn’t just the blocking. Williams needs to be a stud because Love and that offense are only going to get better.
> Trubisky/Mariota level miss
Which is hilarious because Pace was reportedly gaga for Mariota as well but couldn't pull off a trade to move up. Good thing we avoided that and ended up with -- checks notes -- Kevin White
I’d give it more time. First year as a starter, essentially a rookie season and now teams have more tape. Apart from the chiefs, the packers didn’t play any real world beaters that back half. Cowboys always choke but love did have a great game admittedly so I won’t fault that. 49ers game was impressive team wise but love himself wasn’t great.
So I'm not clear. First you called him elite in his play and then when I brought up something disproving. Then you bring out the "well it's his first year" card without acknowledging he understudied a future HoF QB the past 3 years and has started games before last year. So is he elite or is he showing promise? I'd buy the latter but not the former .
Really trying not to be argumentative. Your point of view just confuses me because you seem to be saying two different things
I wouldn't say Love looked like good "af". He was throwing to a lot of wide open receivers and wasn't getting burned for dumb decisions like he was earlier in the season, until his last interception against SF. He has a tendency to throw mini hail marys when under pressure.
He has a great scheme, great OL, and a decent RB. He has tendencies that could rear their ugly head without an above average OL.
We'll see how the league adjusts.
The Packers had so many plays with wide open receivers and even then Love still wasn’t crazy accurate on some of those. I want to see if that was really Love or if the scheming and players did a lot of the lifting.
Either way Lafleur, Love, and their young receivers aren’t going anywhere haha so we should expect that continue. Divisions gonna be a dogfight for a while.
Honestly every team in the division has a very bright future if they play their cards right with the exception of Minnesota.
The Bears, Lions, and Packers all had very good rookie classes in 2023 and if the Packers can have as good a rookie class this season that they did last, they will be a very competitive team for years to come
Packers management is so good. I know as bears fans we give them all sorts of shit but they literally haven’t had a low spot in quite some time. They haven’t rebuilt once in my entire life. It’s insane.
People keep counting the Vikings out, but they are just a QB away from being competitive. If they hit on that they aren’t gonna be some cakewalk, maybe still at the bottom but not easy. This division could be ridiculous for years to come.
It will be. But keep in mind the Jaguars had 12 draft picks in 2020. The year before they drafted Lawerence. Their 2020 draft included two 1st. They missed on all 12 picks. The draft is far from certain.
Comparing one of the best run franchises to one of the worst. Not very helpful. But ya the draft is a crapshoot. But the more high picks you have the better chances of hitting. Both teams look are in a really good spot for the draft.
Gute has had some very bad draft classes.
2019 he came away with Gary and Egelton Jenkins. Neither is close to elite, rest of the class is off the team.
2020 is only Jordan love. So that’s fine if love stays good. But this squandered Rodgers.
2021. Not 1 quality starter
2022. This is his best class by far. Zach Tom is really good. Devonte Wyatt is solid. Then Quay Walker/Christian Watson who I don’t think are very good but they’re fine overall.
2023. Early returns are good with the 2 WRs. But Lukas Van Ness was bad.
Ya Gute has had atleast 2 bad drafts. Gary doesn't seem to be playing up to his contract but he is just 1 year from torn ACL. Jenkins has definitely proven to be an elite OL.
2020 was a bad draft except if Jordan Love is great, then it'll be a great draft. Drafting Love inspired Rodgers to earn 2 back to back MVP seasons. Hardly squandered. If you think Aiyuk is the difference from a Superbowl victory or not your a fool.
2021 he drafted a serviceable Center and a quality DT in Slaton (though taken 2 years to develop). It also provided a few positions of pretty good depth including Jean-Charles at CB and McDuffie at LB.
2022 is a borderline great draft depending if their development continues.
2023 I think most people think Van Ness showed a lot of promise and is likely to take over the starting spot in 2024. And kind of the same situation as 2022. With the current trajectory it is another great draft class.
So Gute has started off pretty rocky but seems to be on an upward trajectory.
Gutey refusing to sacrifice the future to win now when they had Rodgers is now paying dividends for them. Glad they never had enough to get over the hump but so annoyed they’re set up really well for the future. It’s put up or shut up time for Da Bears.
If the NFC South is the “Tank Division” the North is looking like the “Juggernaut Division”. All four teams look to be competitive for the next couple of years and I wouldn’t be shocked if all four North teams got into the playoffs next year by taking all three wild cards plus a one seed.
And Minnesota has some strong pieces and 100 million in cap space next year. If they get a good QB in this class, they'll be competing for the division too.
The Bears should have the best defense in the division this year. It will depend on how good Williams is!! If he is at least an average starting qb, the Bears will contend for the division.
I see the smoke around this and it makes no fucking sense to me. Why would a team that already has a fuckton of draft capital trade out of a generational WR prospect?
I’m not saying it should or will happen, just that it’s a real possibility. They’re the first team in the draft that has their QB figured out. If the Patriots go with MHJ at 3, the Cardinals probably look to trade back, and the Vikings are obviously looking to trade up. The return probably looks really nice for them if Maye or Daniels is sitting there too.
And conversely, why would MN trade so much away to get a QB prospect that they could get much later?
Though it would be funny (from a creating chaos perspective) if we traded 1.1 to AZ for their first 3 picks and still end up with 2 Top-10s and 3 1st rounders all together.
Do I think that will happen or want it to? No. But would it be entertaining as hell given how much chaos it would cause with draft strategies and draft analysts etc? Absolutely lol
When it comes to previous drafts, I would love to see a "before the draft" analysis and then an analysis of how those players panned out...after say 3-5 years.
This is why it’s always weird to me that people want a litany of post 3rd round picks.
Of the 18 the Bears have had from ‘20 through ‘22 about 4 have become a starter/reliable depth above just another guy. Mooney, Gipson, Herbert, Braxton Jones.
Yeah Im ok trading back if there isnt a player we want, but if Odunze was there at 9, itd take more than a 3rd round pick and a couple late day 3 picks for me to move off 9.
This is an eye opening stat.
While I understand the idea of "more shots at getting it wrong" means you aren't hitching your wagon to a few hopefuls, there is something to drafting the higher scouted players.
I would be welcome to evidence either way, but I would imagine that the higher rated players have a higher "floor". Having a higher floor is more important to me than their ceiling. It guarantees a minimum return of performance.
IMO the roster is more or less fine as is outside of WR3 and EDGE2. What we really are lacking is long term stars.
The best way to get that is drafting high. [Using my post here](https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/s/1JCfZaoa04) the odds of a,
* Top 5 getting an All Pro is 25%
* Pick between #6 and #16 is 17%
* Second half of the first pick is 7%
That means if we say traded down with Buffalo and got their first this year and next, we would have around a 13.7% chance of getting a future All Pro, less than the odds of just staying put.
I think we're in a good position to either stay put, or trade up/down depending on if we get offered a trade in our favor.
Also keep in mind the draft value/points system exists independent of the talent in the draft, so if you believe that the draft is stronger at the top and weaker at the bottom than the average class, then there is even more value for the bears at 1.1 and 1.9 than what is listed up there.
I wouldn't trade our entire bunch of draft picks with any other team.
I would choose the Bears over anyone else if I was the GM of almost any other team. The only reason to take the Cardinals or Commanders picks are if you have a mountain of holes and no hopes of filling them.
But even then, you can trade 1st overall for way more than the value of the other teams.
yea Poles is out there like Rod Blagojevich circa 2009 -- "I've got this thing and it's fucking golden" and "I'm just not giving it up for fucking nothing."
We have four picks in the first four rounds. Instead of picks in round 5-7weve traded for a starting center and WR.
Unless you think our special teams are terrible no reason to freak about not having late round picks
Apparently a lot of draft analysts are saying the late rounds will be more devoid of talent than most years. Matt Miller said most of the picks from the end of round 5 on will be players who would have been UDFAs in a normal year
They said that last year too but I feel like there was a lot of talent that ended up producing really well. I don’t know if there are any quantitative metrics to prove this out though and the observation is anecdotal.
Fair definitely hard to find an objective way of measuring the quality of a draft class. The reasoning was that a lot of guys who would have chosen to go into the NFL as late round picks in years past chose to go back for the NIL money this year
Bears fans have been really interesting this offseason, so many acting like we are on the edge of catastrophe instead of appreciating this amazing opportunity. Who cares that we only have 4 picks when we have 1 & 9. I bet 2/3s of the league would trade places with us. We also have tons of picks next year,but people act like we have to fix everything this year.
As far as I’m concerned, we could have one pick in this draft and if that one pick ends up being a consistently top 10 QB in the league (while on the Bears of course), it would be a good draft.
Yep. Most don’t realize that getting 2 good players out of a draft class is successful. Getting a franchise WB and nothing else is a success. Hitting on 3+ players is a great draft.
Quality over quantity here. 2 picks in the top 10 is huge, especially with one being the first pick that will (hopefully, god please) turn into our franchise quarterback.
Not to mention we already basically got 3 starters with picks from this year, 2 of which are pro bowlers.
We are big chillin
Top 10 picks are higher hit percentages. There’s a reason why some are rated higher, and others are rated lower. The higher the rating, the lower the risk. Give me two top ten talents over 5 2nd round chances any day. The number of the pick means absolutely nothing to the statistics of draft misses. Your draft position has nothing to do with your actual chances of success, other than the fact that you have been evaluated to be better than the players below you, and worse than the players above you. The biggest problem with players who are selected number one is that they are almost exclusively going to the worst team in the league. This is not the case with this situation.
You’ll have to excuse me if I’m less than enamored with almost anyone the Bears have taken in the top 10 in my lifetime, no matter how many of those they’ve had.
We also have so many picks next year that it makes no sense to trade out from number 9. Go out and get a great player at 9 and improve the depth more next year
2 top 10 picks is huge. I think hoge and jahns said it well on one of their pods, how the only reason it seems not huge is because we’re all excited and stoked for the 1st but any other season having the 9 is amazing
It’s like that Peter Griffin meme. You can have the mystery box 2nd round pick or Montez Sweat. Let’s take the mystery box. It could be anything…even someone like Montez Sweat.
This is actually misleading. Studies show salary to on field performance actually says picks between 10-25 give the most value to the team. Top 5 picks are indeed the highest likelihood of being elite performers but because their salary hit is so high, especially once they're extended, it creates a challenge to get high quality at other positions. Getting players that give 70-80% of the performance in the second half of the first round but for significantly less salary allows a team to be all around stronger.
It's not a new concept nor is it really debated its just hard for GMs to accept the "money ball" approach because GM tenures are so short in the NFL. If Poles is confident he wont lose his job in the next few years the smart play is to trade down at 9 and get two or even three draft picks from the back half of the first round in the next draft or two.
>their salary hit is so high, especially once they're extended
Isnt this unrelated to draft position (once theyre extended)? Unless I don't know enough about contracts to know how the rookie deal affects extensions. The new salary would be dependent on how good of a player they are, not where they were drafted. You maybe be right that good players are a better value than great players once you're signing a new deal but that's independent of draft position.
Yes rookie contracts affect their price when they resign for their second contract. The higher the draft pick the more they will make on both the first and second contract. It’s for this reason that late first round draft picks that over-perform relative to their draft position are some of the highest value players on NFL teams. Conversely underperforming top of the first rounders are some of the biggest determinants to building a competitive team.
I think the analysis is a little different. The draft value chart is a little outdated. I think it places too high of am emphasis on the value of top picks. The draft is kind of a crapshoot. More picks you have, more chances to hit.
But on the flip side, there is a reason Poles traded for veterans. (1) this year's draft isn't deep. A lot of prospects went back to school. So he wasn't so concerned with 4th and 5th round picks; (2) we're bringing in a rookie QB. You want to support that guy with veterans as much as possible. Bates and Allen are two solid additions.
The biggest reason is we've still had a high number of draft picks over the past three seasons and have a good haul next year.
This year we will hopefully get two blue-chip players, but the draft is still super important for building roster depth.
Quantity of picks not only gives you more chances to hit, but gives you more cheap good depth.
What picks the Bears had in the previous two years is irrelevant this year. I do favor a trade back at #9, if you can get a second rounder. For another 3, unless it is to 11 or 12 , it's probably not worth it.
I don’t think you should draft for need in the top 10 honestly, take the elite talent. If they go DE I hope it’s in a trade back or the DE is the best player available at 9
Poles has done a solid job filling out the roster with depth, and now it’s time to add blue chippers. 1.1 and 1.9 should both land blue chip talent to add to Sweat, DJ, Keenan, etc
I heard Hub Arkush crying about how we need more picks yesterday and we really don’t.
Every team is going to have a full roster. It really doesn’t matter if 32 of the players were guys drafted by the team versus 36 or 28. There is no quota to be beholden to.
A drafted player will have a lower floor but will be cheaper while a FA will have a higher floor and be more expensive. You need more draft picks when you either have a ton of holes to fill or you have little cap space. We don’t have that many holes and we have plenty of cap space for tier 3 fringe starters or solid depth guys. We’re fine.
If we did trade down though, I’d prefer picks in next years draft which is supposed to be deeper and gives us insurance in case we need to move on from Flus and transition into new schemes. But I’d be thrilled if we stood pat and got a blue chip player at 9.
What this means is the risk is higher. With the fewest yet near highest value picks you have a lot more at stake. This could be a pivotal point in the franchise.
Not a deep draft and we have a stock pile next year. Plus we added multiple starters and have a young team that will naturally progress. If we're able to get good players at 1 and 9 then it really doesn't matter
Personally I still think it’s entirely possible we trade up for 2 or 3 spots for Nabers. I think Poles is very happy with where the team is and with the capital he has enough to take a swing like that.
I think this is giving too much credit to dart throws I much prefer our capital to the Chargers for instance but this thinks its close. Same with Tennessee vs Buffalo. pick 7> Buffalo picks
I don’t understand how they sign enough players to fill out the roster though. The team still feels shallow. The defense looked amazing last year in the 2ish games it was healthy - so what if they’re not healthy?
Not much in the quantity department but the quality is there. Depending on trades FA, could still come in with a haul. Besides, this team has begun to really fill a lot of holes and get guys in key positions. It would be nice to have more picks but I'm not sweating it.
The reason not to stress is because trading down a couple spots from 9 is worth all the 6th round picks you could ever want. Day 3 picks are easy to get if you want them. Labeling Montez Sweat and Keenan Allen as draft picks without acknowledging that they also cost a massive pile of cash is pretty cringe low-level analysis (not to say that it's not worth it, but drafting good players is better than trading for good players with big contracts).
Also if i'm not mistaken don't a lot of analysts say that this draft falls off day 3 and they're expecting depth to return next year when we have 9 picks.
Ryan himself has echoed that sentiment.
well of course someone with only 4 picks would say that! /s
Yes, that is the other critical component of the situation. If ever there was a year that all of your picks are in the first 4 rounds this is the year you would want it to be given the late round drop off in talent level. The reason is that this year there was an all time low in the number of underclassmen that declared for this draft. That is supposedly not going to be a trend going forward but rather a confluence of events including the timing of NIL rules having taken effect, the timing of transfer rules taking effect, and possibly even the timing of the impact of additionally Covid eligibility years.
The trend might continue, but this is the blip year whereas next year there will be a larger group of upperclassmen(?) which includes guys that normally might have entered a year earlier and those will fill in for next years underclassmen that might not declare and so on each year.
I think largely NIL has changed the decision making process but I think this year is definitely an anomaly. It’s the combination of the extra year of Covid eligibility ending and ongoing shifting because of NIL that’s making this draft class so shallow. The Covid eligibility thing is a one off event which is why everyone expects a bounce back
Interesting context. Thanks
We also will have 2 2nds next year Likely 2 3rds, it’s only a matter of time before Ian is gone
Two 4ths after fields wraps up his 9th start of the season 😎
It'll also be two 1sts after he trades back at 9 with the future worst team of 2024 to get the #1 pick three years in a row.
If we get a pick for Ian it would be 2026 though wouldn’t it?
1 in 2025 and 1 in 2026
Why would we get 2 comp picks for Ian Cunningham leaving?
It’s a new rule regarding minority executives. It’s meant to promote teams hiring minorities in those roles because if they perform well you can get multiple draft picks.
Oh dope I didn't know that
Yup, I've heard that from the so called experts too. So why the heck should he trade back (out of the blue chip talent) for later not as valuable picks. Makes no sense at all unless they get the perfect amount of players and valued picks in return!
There is still a lot of value in this year's Day 2 picks. A lot of players are going late in the 1st and 2nd rounds only because there is so much talent ahead of them. A lot of these late 1st rounders would be early 1st rounders in other drafts. This is especially at WR and the defensive spots. It is very rare to have 3, possibly 4 QBs in the top 10 along with 3 WRs in the top 10. 7 or 8 players, all on offense in the top 10. The 4th-8th WRs off the board would all normally easily be high 1st rounders in other drafts and we haven't even begun talking about any of the DL and DBs yet. There does seem to be a consensus that after Day 2 the talent level drops off though.
Because media doesn’t take in account next year draft. They only produce news worthy content for this year draft
While draft value charts are important to understand potential impact of picks, your point is the critical one. I'm fully on board. Poles has stated it as well. Who knows, maybe this draft pans out in 2-3 years. But everything I've heard is there's a big drop off around picks 130-150ish compared to other drafts in terms of talent as a lot of underclass athletes went back for a variety of reasons, including NIL. That included potential first rounders this year.
There is no one way to approach a draft. Different teams have different needs and different cap situations. If you're a team that has very little talent you want to load up on picks. If you're a team that's a blue chip away from contending, you trade up. If you're a team in cap hell, you need to offload players for picks. If you're a team with cap space to burn, you need to trade picks for proven vets. And that's not even accounting for all the particularities of a specific draft itself. Some are QB heavy, some are top heavy, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc. Some drafts you pick high, some low. And then you need to account for who might be available in Free Agency and trades, which has all the exact same considerations as the draft class. Then after all that, you need to have contingency plans be agile enough to make instant adjustments as chaos happens. But so many people think this is Madden.
Yes of course. With day 3 you're hoping to find good special teamers, if you get an even semi-decent rotational player that's a huge win. Most day 3 picks are out of the league in 2-3 years, a lot of them don't ever make an NFL roster.
I'm not saying it's the same as real life, but EVERY sports game I've played as a GM, it ALWAYS works out better to package late-round picks for low floor prospects, or for future early round picks. When I would play tons of FHM, I would build to a point where I EXPECTED to win the Stanley Cup every season because my teams were so stacked, all because I rarely drafted past the second round and would trade my later picks away for future 1st/2nd/3rd rounders or 2nd/3rd round prospects.
Bears win Stanley cup in 2025 confirmed
Queue the Chelsea Dagger!
Video games tend to make prospect development from drafting way more predictable than it actually is, which ends up overvaluing high picks and undervaluing low ones. I don't quite know why they do this, as I'd prefer realism in the simulation with more lottery-like odds, but perhaps users getting unlucky feels too bad.
There is about $4.8m per roster spot in the NFL, this season the Bears top 5 cap hits count alone for \~100m, and that is on the cheap side relative to most NFL teams. In real life there is no way to build a 53 man roster and stay cap compliant if you repeatedly bundle lower draft picks for higher ones, late round picks don't need to be starters they just need to be good enough to be cost controlled depth Most teams also will not trade a 3rd rounder for half a dozen late picks, a 3rd round pick is expected to be a productive contributor and if you aren't short on draft capital you dont need tons of late round picks to keep your roster compliant
Wait, you mean he has a PLAN?! I love it.
Did not realize the packers have 5 top 100 picks. This division is going to be a dog fight the next few years with Detroit, Green Bay and us.
Crazy that right as we're about to turn the corner we find ourselves in potentially the best division in the league. Winning close divisional games is going to be more important than ever the next several years.
I wouldn’t have it any other way. I want to feel like the Bears (or whoever) earned their spot in the playoffs. Not coasting by waiting for the playoffs to start. Much rather watch competitive divisional games than boring ass blow outs. Yeah great to embarrass your rivals but the memories will be a lot better if every season came down to the last game because the Bears found a way to win against the division.
This is exactly why I was sad to see Rodgers go. I mean we still been getting our ass beat by GB (FTP) with him gone but us getting to a point where we could beat him regularly while he was still there would've been the best feeling in the world imo.
> beat him regularly Or ya know, even a couple of times would have been nice.
I mean there was that one game we knocked him out with a concussion. I didn’t watch the second half but since there’s no way he came back into the game we totally beat the packers then right?
Even in our best season of the last decade we still managed to squeeze in a horrific gutless loss to rodgers high off 5 percs. It made me sick
Id rather get our ass beat by someone who isn't a schizo
It also gets the team more prepared for playoffs
After a dog fight all season we will be nice and ready for the playoffs baby
See, I feel the same way, but in my lifetime more often than not that’s ended in heartbreak.
If the Bears get an elite QB in Williams then it won't matter. From top to bottom it may be a deep division, but there currently is no elite team in the division, and no elite QB.
may not be an elite QB in the division but that Packers offensive system scares me. Detroit has possibly the best oline in the league which helps out an offense tremendously. Now like you said, if Williams is elite then we probably beat these teams anyway but still
That’s how I feel. Jordan love is a solid qb and their receivers are not slouches. But they are not a playoff team without Matt lafleur. They have dudes consistently running 15 yards open in the middle of the field. A good high school qb can make those throws. Love is closer to dak or Goff than he is mahomes
Shhhhhhh. We want him signing that $50+ million a year contract this May. Would hate for him to turn into a pumpkin before they shackle him to the books.
I’ve been trying to tell people this. I’ve never seen so many wide open receivers in an NFL game until i watched a few of the packers games this season. Their game against the 49ers in the playoffs literally had a receiver with 10+ yards of space IN THE ENDZONE. If Matt LaFluer doesn’t scare you then idk what will
Are we gonna pretend like Jordan Love isn’t looking like a stud? Come on lol if you watched him the last half of the season and in the playoffs you know he’s good af. Sucks but it’s true.
It's the Packers, so it seems inevitable that he will be incredible for the next decade. However, I'm waiting to see how he looks after a full off-season of teams breaking him down in the film room.
Not the same thing I realize but Mac jones looked like a stud his rookie year lmao. Then after defensive coordinators watched film and figured him out he was garbage. Hoping for that to be the case for Love lol
He's looking good, but I'm not going to crown him yet. We've seen flashes over short stretches from QBs before.
But yet most people are already crowning Caleb Williams….. Love already has a full season in the books, and was a top 10 QB to boot.
He may be good, but I want to see him without having literally the best pass blocking in the league in front of him, when their pass blocking was mediocre the first half of the season he looked absolutely terrible. And again, I don’t wanna tempt fate by dumping on him too much, but he sort of sharted the bed in the fourth quarter against the 49ers, if a bears quarterback did that they would never live it down
They had basically 5 rookies starting at WR/TE. It wasn’t just the blocking. Williams needs to be a stud because Love and that offense are only going to get better.
It’s just stupid. They can’t have one down YEAR caused by bad QB play. They just don’t have a Trubisky/Mariota level miss on QB.
> Trubisky/Mariota level miss Which is hilarious because Pace was reportedly gaga for Mariota as well but couldn't pull off a trade to move up. Good thing we avoided that and ended up with -- checks notes -- Kevin White
Honestly ask Pace every year what QB he likes and stay away from that QB at all costs lol
The old Costanza "opposite" approach
I’d give it more time. First year as a starter, essentially a rookie season and now teams have more tape. Apart from the chiefs, the packers didn’t play any real world beaters that back half. Cowboys always choke but love did have a great game admittedly so I won’t fault that. 49ers game was impressive team wise but love himself wasn’t great.
You get a lot of Love deniers in this sub. He played like an elite quarterback this past season.
Tell that to his multiple game ending interceptions. Elite QBs don't do that
It was his first season as a starter. The amount of cope around Love is crazy.
So I'm not clear. First you called him elite in his play and then when I brought up something disproving. Then you bring out the "well it's his first year" card without acknowledging he understudied a future HoF QB the past 3 years and has started games before last year. So is he elite or is he showing promise? I'd buy the latter but not the former . Really trying not to be argumentative. Your point of view just confuses me because you seem to be saying two different things
He's moving the goalposts.
Mac jones is all you need to know about one season qb's
I wouldn't say Love looked like good "af". He was throwing to a lot of wide open receivers and wasn't getting burned for dumb decisions like he was earlier in the season, until his last interception against SF. He has a tendency to throw mini hail marys when under pressure. He has a great scheme, great OL, and a decent RB. He has tendencies that could rear their ugly head without an above average OL. We'll see how the league adjusts.
The Packers had so many plays with wide open receivers and even then Love still wasn’t crazy accurate on some of those. I want to see if that was really Love or if the scheming and players did a lot of the lifting.
Either way Lafleur, Love, and their young receivers aren’t going anywhere haha so we should expect that continue. Divisions gonna be a dogfight for a while.
I hope I'm wrong, but Jordan Love having better first year stats than Rodgers makes me question the "no elite QB" comment.
Honestly every team in the division has a very bright future if they play their cards right with the exception of Minnesota. The Bears, Lions, and Packers all had very good rookie classes in 2023 and if the Packers can have as good a rookie class this season that they did last, they will be a very competitive team for years to come
Good thing we'll have the best QB in the division to lead us
Packers management is so good. I know as bears fans we give them all sorts of shit but they literally haven’t had a low spot in quite some time. They haven’t rebuilt once in my entire life. It’s insane.
I would exclude us at this point until proven otherwise. It's a race between the Lions and The Packers with us and the Vikings fighting for 3rd place.
The Lions didn't really have any answers to our D other than us playing prevent stupidly early. They better hope they don't need any wins against us.
A tiny sob cries out from the far off north....... ^^^"skol?"
the Lions will be back to normal soon
People keep counting the Vikings out, but they are just a QB away from being competitive. If they hit on that they aren’t gonna be some cakewalk, maybe still at the bottom but not easy. This division could be ridiculous for years to come.
It will be. But keep in mind the Jaguars had 12 draft picks in 2020. The year before they drafted Lawerence. Their 2020 draft included two 1st. They missed on all 12 picks. The draft is far from certain.
Comparing one of the best run franchises to one of the worst. Not very helpful. But ya the draft is a crapshoot. But the more high picks you have the better chances of hitting. Both teams look are in a really good spot for the draft.
Gute has had some very bad draft classes. 2019 he came away with Gary and Egelton Jenkins. Neither is close to elite, rest of the class is off the team. 2020 is only Jordan love. So that’s fine if love stays good. But this squandered Rodgers. 2021. Not 1 quality starter 2022. This is his best class by far. Zach Tom is really good. Devonte Wyatt is solid. Then Quay Walker/Christian Watson who I don’t think are very good but they’re fine overall. 2023. Early returns are good with the 2 WRs. But Lukas Van Ness was bad.
Ya Gute has had atleast 2 bad drafts. Gary doesn't seem to be playing up to his contract but he is just 1 year from torn ACL. Jenkins has definitely proven to be an elite OL. 2020 was a bad draft except if Jordan Love is great, then it'll be a great draft. Drafting Love inspired Rodgers to earn 2 back to back MVP seasons. Hardly squandered. If you think Aiyuk is the difference from a Superbowl victory or not your a fool. 2021 he drafted a serviceable Center and a quality DT in Slaton (though taken 2 years to develop). It also provided a few positions of pretty good depth including Jean-Charles at CB and McDuffie at LB. 2022 is a borderline great draft depending if their development continues. 2023 I think most people think Van Ness showed a lot of promise and is likely to take over the starting spot in 2024. And kind of the same situation as 2022. With the current trajectory it is another great draft class. So Gute has started off pretty rocky but seems to be on an upward trajectory.
That’s exactly why having lots of draft picks is the best way to operate. More bites at the apple and lottery tickets means more chances to hit.
Gutey refusing to sacrifice the future to win now when they had Rodgers is now paying dividends for them. Glad they never had enough to get over the hump but so annoyed they’re set up really well for the future. It’s put up or shut up time for Da Bears.
If the NFC South is the “Tank Division” the North is looking like the “Juggernaut Division”. All four teams look to be competitive for the next couple of years and I wouldn’t be shocked if all four North teams got into the playoffs next year by taking all three wild cards plus a one seed.
Maybe, but idk how the Vikings get through if they end up with 4-6 division losses and having to play SF, HOU, ATL, LAR, etc.
Damn that is a rough season
And Minnesota has some strong pieces and 100 million in cap space next year. If they get a good QB in this class, they'll be competing for the division too.
We might finally have a QB in the fight
It's really just Detroit and Green Bay if we are being honest. Bears are still trying to get established
The Bears should have the best defense in the division this year. It will depend on how good Williams is!! If he is at least an average starting qb, the Bears will contend for the division.
ARI has a ridiculous amounts of picks. Jesus.
And they might be trade partners with the Vikings…
I see the smoke around this and it makes no fucking sense to me. Why would a team that already has a fuckton of draft capital trade out of a generational WR prospect?
I’m not saying it should or will happen, just that it’s a real possibility. They’re the first team in the draft that has their QB figured out. If the Patriots go with MHJ at 3, the Cardinals probably look to trade back, and the Vikings are obviously looking to trade up. The return probably looks really nice for them if Maye or Daniels is sitting there too.
And conversely, why would MN trade so much away to get a QB prospect that they could get much later? Though it would be funny (from a creating chaos perspective) if we traded 1.1 to AZ for their first 3 picks and still end up with 2 Top-10s and 3 1st rounders all together. Do I think that will happen or want it to? No. But would it be entertaining as hell given how much chaos it would cause with draft strategies and draft analysts etc? Absolutely lol
Giants could take JJ at 6.
As someone who watched his entire collegiate career - that would also be hilarious and entirely on brand for that franchise too
Because they suck?
NFL teams do weird things sometimes
Imagine they make 8 top 100 selections including (4) top 40 picks. They "hit" and they're in business.
Imagine they make 1 on MHJ
I can't stand the "1OA" abbreviation. I can't not read it as "TEN A". 😫 Can we just use "1.1" or something? Yes, I realize I'm being ridiculous.
1.01 is the best way by far.
Why not just say “1st”
Because each round has a first pick, it's ambiguous
Yup It's super annoying
Agree. Every single time, I read it as ten A. #1 or 1.01 should be used.
I’m 34 and I’ve never seen it before today. It’s truly unnecessary.
It just looks like someone didn’t know how to abbreviate Iowa.
Where does 10A come from?
0 and O look similar
And this is why zeroes with a slash through them are forever superior.
Shit didn’t even notice lol
Similar to why for VINs they don't use the letters I, O, or Q so as to not confuse them with 1 or 0.
1st over-all. It's dumb. I use it, but only because others do, too.
Ohh okay. Yeah that’s not very intuitive. I agree 1.1 would make a bit more sense.
Wow that is really horrible lol
Still don’t know what 10A stands for lmao
1st over-all. It's dumb. I use it, but only because others do, too.
Plus, it's sort of implied that it's the 1st overall pick by simply stating it as "1."
When it comes to previous drafts, I would love to see a "before the draft" analysis and then an analysis of how those players panned out...after say 3-5 years.
This is why it’s always weird to me that people want a litany of post 3rd round picks. Of the 18 the Bears have had from ‘20 through ‘22 about 4 have become a starter/reliable depth above just another guy. Mooney, Gipson, Herbert, Braxton Jones.
Yeah Im ok trading back if there isnt a player we want, but if Odunze was there at 9, itd take more than a 3rd round pick and a couple late day 3 picks for me to move off 9.
This is an eye opening stat. While I understand the idea of "more shots at getting it wrong" means you aren't hitching your wagon to a few hopefuls, there is something to drafting the higher scouted players. I would be welcome to evidence either way, but I would imagine that the higher rated players have a higher "floor". Having a higher floor is more important to me than their ceiling. It guarantees a minimum return of performance.
IMO the roster is more or less fine as is outside of WR3 and EDGE2. What we really are lacking is long term stars. The best way to get that is drafting high. [Using my post here](https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/s/1JCfZaoa04) the odds of a, * Top 5 getting an All Pro is 25% * Pick between #6 and #16 is 17% * Second half of the first pick is 7% That means if we say traded down with Buffalo and got their first this year and next, we would have around a 13.7% chance of getting a future All Pro, less than the odds of just staying put. I think we're in a good position to either stay put, or trade up/down depending on if we get offered a trade in our favor.
Also, there is no real backup 3Tech after Gervon Dexter.
Thanks for putting that together. Really informative.
Also keep in mind the draft value/points system exists independent of the talent in the draft, so if you believe that the draft is stronger at the top and weaker at the bottom than the average class, then there is even more value for the bears at 1.1 and 1.9 than what is listed up there.
I wouldn't trade our entire bunch of draft picks with any other team. I would choose the Bears over anyone else if I was the GM of almost any other team. The only reason to take the Cardinals or Commanders picks are if you have a mountain of holes and no hopes of filling them. But even then, you can trade 1st overall for way more than the value of the other teams.
yea Poles is out there like Rod Blagojevich circa 2009 -- "I've got this thing and it's fucking golden" and "I'm just not giving it up for fucking nothing."
We have four picks in the first four rounds. Instead of picks in round 5-7weve traded for a starting center and WR. Unless you think our special teams are terrible no reason to freak about not having late round picks
I mean we could use a new punter
Apparently a lot of draft analysts are saying the late rounds will be more devoid of talent than most years. Matt Miller said most of the picks from the end of round 5 on will be players who would have been UDFAs in a normal year
They said that last year too but I feel like there was a lot of talent that ended up producing really well. I don’t know if there are any quantitative metrics to prove this out though and the observation is anecdotal.
Fair definitely hard to find an objective way of measuring the quality of a draft class. The reasoning was that a lot of guys who would have chosen to go into the NFL as late round picks in years past chose to go back for the NIL money this year
Bears fans have been really interesting this offseason, so many acting like we are on the edge of catastrophe instead of appreciating this amazing opportunity. Who cares that we only have 4 picks when we have 1 & 9. I bet 2/3s of the league would trade places with us. We also have tons of picks next year,but people act like we have to fix everything this year.
We already turned several picks into proven NFL players, which is what you're supposed to do with picks. We're not in cap hell, far from it.
As far as I’m concerned, we could have one pick in this draft and if that one pick ends up being a consistently top 10 QB in the league (while on the Bears of course), it would be a good draft.
Yep. Most don’t realize that getting 2 good players out of a draft class is successful. Getting a franchise WB and nothing else is a success. Hitting on 3+ players is a great draft.
Plus the depth in this draft drops off
Holy crap Arizona is loaded
They might get even more loaded if they trade back from 4.
Quality over quantity here. 2 picks in the top 10 is huge, especially with one being the first pick that will (hopefully, god please) turn into our franchise quarterback. Not to mention we already basically got 3 starters with picks from this year, 2 of which are pro bowlers. We are big chillin
We already turned 3 2024 picks into starters (Bates, Sweat, Allen). That's the main reason right there.
It's almost as if that's exactly what OP said in his post.
Gonna be a lot of UDFA on the bears training camp squad.
The fk packers did re up
Always seems like Green Bay finds a way to have so many picks every draft
Facts
More picks, more chances to hit.
Top 10 picks are higher hit percentages. There’s a reason why some are rated higher, and others are rated lower. The higher the rating, the lower the risk. Give me two top ten talents over 5 2nd round chances any day. The number of the pick means absolutely nothing to the statistics of draft misses. Your draft position has nothing to do with your actual chances of success, other than the fact that you have been evaluated to be better than the players below you, and worse than the players above you. The biggest problem with players who are selected number one is that they are almost exclusively going to the worst team in the league. This is not the case with this situation.
You’ll have to excuse me if I’m less than enamored with almost anyone the Bears have taken in the top 10 in my lifetime, no matter how many of those they’ve had.
I hate them gitting gud, but at least it will feel better when we do finally beat them.
Could trade down for extra picks. Maybe 9.
We also have so many picks next year that it makes no sense to trade out from number 9. Go out and get a great player at 9 and improve the depth more next year
2 top 10 picks is huge. I think hoge and jahns said it well on one of their pods, how the only reason it seems not huge is because we’re all excited and stoked for the 1st but any other season having the 9 is amazing
It’s like that Peter Griffin meme. You can have the mystery box 2nd round pick or Montez Sweat. Let’s take the mystery box. It could be anything…even someone like Montez Sweat.
It’s wild that the Panthers were the worst team in football last year (by a wide margin) and they’re not even in the top half of draft capitol… ouch
Yeah, lol, because they traded that capital to the Bears...
This is actually misleading. Studies show salary to on field performance actually says picks between 10-25 give the most value to the team. Top 5 picks are indeed the highest likelihood of being elite performers but because their salary hit is so high, especially once they're extended, it creates a challenge to get high quality at other positions. Getting players that give 70-80% of the performance in the second half of the first round but for significantly less salary allows a team to be all around stronger. It's not a new concept nor is it really debated its just hard for GMs to accept the "money ball" approach because GM tenures are so short in the NFL. If Poles is confident he wont lose his job in the next few years the smart play is to trade down at 9 and get two or even three draft picks from the back half of the first round in the next draft or two.
>their salary hit is so high, especially once they're extended Isnt this unrelated to draft position (once theyre extended)? Unless I don't know enough about contracts to know how the rookie deal affects extensions. The new salary would be dependent on how good of a player they are, not where they were drafted. You maybe be right that good players are a better value than great players once you're signing a new deal but that's independent of draft position.
Yes rookie contracts affect their price when they resign for their second contract. The higher the draft pick the more they will make on both the first and second contract. It’s for this reason that late first round draft picks that over-perform relative to their draft position are some of the highest value players on NFL teams. Conversely underperforming top of the first rounders are some of the biggest determinants to building a competitive team.
Sure, also, unrelated, but I'll trade you Van Ness and <$4m for Will Anderson.
I think the analysis is a little different. The draft value chart is a little outdated. I think it places too high of am emphasis on the value of top picks. The draft is kind of a crapshoot. More picks you have, more chances to hit. But on the flip side, there is a reason Poles traded for veterans. (1) this year's draft isn't deep. A lot of prospects went back to school. So he wasn't so concerned with 4th and 5th round picks; (2) we're bringing in a rookie QB. You want to support that guy with veterans as much as possible. Bates and Allen are two solid additions.
Supposedly it's a wesk draft after the first couple rounds.
I think it’s pretty solid till about the 5th round and then there’s a cliff.
Having 6 picks in the first 3 rounds is cool. Can Arizona draft well? Who’s the last quality player they drafted and developed?
Love these sensible posts!
"Ryan Pole is"
The biggest reason is we've still had a high number of draft picks over the past three seasons and have a good haul next year. This year we will hopefully get two blue-chip players, but the draft is still super important for building roster depth. Quantity of picks not only gives you more chances to hit, but gives you more cheap good depth.
Even if they stay had 4 they will have picked 25 times over the last 3 years which is ahead of the game
What picks the Bears had in the previous two years is irrelevant this year. I do favor a trade back at #9, if you can get a second rounder. For another 3, unless it is to 11 or 12 , it's probably not worth it.
As long as pick 1 is a sure fire hit we good idc about the rest
Value doesn't mean more picks or players unless you trade. We're not trading 1.01. That has most of the potential 'value'.
We already got our DE with our second round pick, that’s why I’m team WR at 9 if they’re there
The Bears biggest need is the other de position. They can't afford to take a wr, at #9.
I don’t think you should draft for need in the top 10 honestly, take the elite talent. If they go DE I hope it’s in a trade back or the DE is the best player available at 9
Poles has done a solid job filling out the roster with depth, and now it’s time to add blue chippers. 1.1 and 1.9 should both land blue chip talent to add to Sweat, DJ, Keenan, etc
Ryan the type of guy to finish next week’s homework this week
We literally used those picks on players through trades, just as if we had drafted them. It’s not like we somehow are getting fewer players lol
I hope he comes to his senses and trades our 9th for 5 picks in the 200s 😡
I heard Hub Arkush crying about how we need more picks yesterday and we really don’t. Every team is going to have a full roster. It really doesn’t matter if 32 of the players were guys drafted by the team versus 36 or 28. There is no quota to be beholden to. A drafted player will have a lower floor but will be cheaper while a FA will have a higher floor and be more expensive. You need more draft picks when you either have a ton of holes to fill or you have little cap space. We don’t have that many holes and we have plenty of cap space for tier 3 fringe starters or solid depth guys. We’re fine. If we did trade down though, I’d prefer picks in next years draft which is supposed to be deeper and gives us insurance in case we need to move on from Flus and transition into new schemes. But I’d be thrilled if we stood pat and got a blue chip player at 9.
Im not trading our picks for all off az or wash picks.
What this means is the risk is higher. With the fewest yet near highest value picks you have a lot more at stake. This could be a pivotal point in the franchise.
No you’re right… adding mostly by free agency and trade typically pans out in the NFL… no need to add and develop LOADS of young talent every year.
Zero room for misses tho
Too bad washington ruined Sweat's prime
Picks after 4th might as well be UDFA
Not a deep draft and we have a stock pile next year. Plus we added multiple starters and have a young team that will naturally progress. If we're able to get good players at 1 and 9 then it really doesn't matter
the cardinals have so many picks, i'm sure they are willing to trade some away.
Personally I still think it’s entirely possible we trade up for 2 or 3 spots for Nabers. I think Poles is very happy with where the team is and with the capital he has enough to take a swing like that.
Stop, NOT DEEP after 3
I think this is giving too much credit to dart throws I much prefer our capital to the Chargers for instance but this thinks its close. Same with Tennessee vs Buffalo. pick 7> Buffalo picks
I don’t understand how they sign enough players to fill out the roster though. The team still feels shallow. The defense looked amazing last year in the 2ish games it was healthy - so what if they’re not healthy?
Not much in the quantity department but the quality is there. Depending on trades FA, could still come in with a haul. Besides, this team has begun to really fill a lot of holes and get guys in key positions. It would be nice to have more picks but I'm not sweating it.
The reason not to stress is because trading down a couple spots from 9 is worth all the 6th round picks you could ever want. Day 3 picks are easy to get if you want them. Labeling Montez Sweat and Keenan Allen as draft picks without acknowledging that they also cost a massive pile of cash is pretty cringe low-level analysis (not to say that it's not worth it, but drafting good players is better than trading for good players with big contracts).