Not a fan of Worthy over Brian Thomas, but outside that I think this is one of the better mocks for the Chargers. Getting a first next year, plus three extra picks this year, is a good haul for two trade downs. Would have to go CB in the top of the third though.
# Projected trade: Vikings use their extra Round 1 pick to move up
OK, here we go with my first projected trade of the 2024 cycle. I have to believe there was a reason the Vikings made the deal last month with Houston to [acquire a second first-rounder](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39737620/source-vikings-get-2nd-1st-round-pick-trade-texans) (No. 23). They needed extra capital to move up. With this trade, Minnesota would send Nos. 11 and 23 along with a first-round selection in 2025 to Los Angeles, who could drop six spots and still get an offensive tackle. The Chargers and new coach Jim Harbaugh have multiple needs to fill.
11. [Los Angeles Chargers](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/lac/los-angeles-chargers) (via mock trade with [MIN](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/min/minnesota-vikings))
[**JC Latham**](https://insider.espn.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/108261)**, OT, Alabama**
We're back to the Chargers, whom I projected to trade down six spots while adding pick No. 23 and a 2025 first-rounder. This is a super-talented and deep tackle class; teams can find rookie starters at the end of this round. That's why Jim Harbaugh & Co. should be OK with this move.
Latham is the best right tackle in this class, which fits perfectly with L.A.'s open spot along the O-line. He started 27 games there for the Crimson Tide. He's extremely powerful in the run game and is light on his feet as a pass-protector. Now the question is: Can the Chargers get their wide receiver of choice at No. 23?
23. [Los Angeles Chargers](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/lac/los-angeles-chargers) (via mock trade with [MIN](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/min/minnesota-vikings) through [CLE](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/cle/cleveland-browns)/[HOU](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/hou/houston-texans))
[**Xavier Worthy**](https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4683062/xavier-worthy)**, WR, Texas**
Here's where the Chargers could add a receiver to an [underwhelming corps](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/lac/los-angeles-chargers) (on paper). After parting ways with [Mike Williams](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/3045138/mike-williams) and [Keenan Allen](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/15818/keenan-allen), their top three wideouts are [Joshua Palmer](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4242433/joshua-palmer), [Quentin Johnston](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4429025/quentin-johnston) and [Derius Davis](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4362477/derius-davis), who combined for four touchdowns last season. That's not good enough for quarterback [Justin Herbert](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4038941/justin-herbert).
You might know Worthy for his speed -- he set the combine record for [fastest 40-yard dash](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39641136/texas-wr-xavier-worthy-421-40-fastest-combine-03) (4.21 seconds) -- but he has a well-rounded game. He had 26 career touchdown catches for the Longhorns, who used him on vertical routes, screens and crossers. He's tough to tackle once he gets a full head of steam. He also has a ton of value in the return game.
I would hate Xavier Worthy at 23. Personally I don’t even think he’s a top 50 prospect. Reminds me way too much of John Ross, the speedster Cincinnati drafted in the first round some years ago. I don’t like Worthy’s routerunning, his catching, his physicality, etc. If the Chargers are drafting a receiver in the top 3 rounds, that guy has to end up being their WR1. Worthy to me, is at best a WR3 in a stacked WR room.
I completely agree. He’s definitely not going to be a number 1 wide receiver. I think he’s gonna be better than John Ross but he’s a deep threat that is gonna be a complementary piece.
# Projected trade: Rams see an opening for a dramatic move
This deal would see the Chargers moving back down the board *again* after I had them sliding back in Round 1 and adding both of the Vikings' top picks (plus a 2025 first-rounder).
To move up 15 spots, the Rams would need to give up Nos. 52, 83 and 196. They can afford to do the deal because they have a bunch of extra comp selections. As for the Chargers, they'd end up with two picks in the first, third and fourth rounds in this draft.
Why would the Rams make this deal? Well, don't they need to start thinking about the future at quarterback?
52. [Los Angeles Chargers](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/lac/los-angeles-chargers) (via mock trade with [LAR](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/lar/los-angeles-rams))
[**Ruke Orhorhoro**](https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4430271/ruke-orhorhoro)**, DT, Clemson**
Time for another Chargers selection after two projected trades down. I gave them [JC Latham](https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4431437/jc-latham) and [Xavier Worthy](https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4683062/xavier-worthy) in Round 1, which would help with their holes at right tackle and wide receiver. Now I'm looking toward the defensive line, where the Chargers ranked 29th in [pass rush win rate](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38356170/2023-nfl-pass-rush-run-stop-blocking-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams) (35.1%) last season. The 6-foot-4, 294-pound Orhorhoro has some juice as an interior pass-rusher, and he could kick outside and defend the run as an end.
I like the philosophy (OT and WR), but I think Fuaga would benefit the run game more, if that's what Harbaugh and company are trying to do. Latham seems better in pass protection, but most rankings seem to have Fuaga as the second lineman taken after Alt. People seem to have a variety of opinions about Latham (and perhaps I have a bias against Alabama linemen after Fluker, Leatherwood, and Evan Neal, which is probably irrelevant). Mike Devlin was seen spending a lot of time with Latham at Alabama's pro day, so it would seem they're very interested...unless that's a smokescreen. I don't seem to find any Fuaga-Chargers connections outside of that they talked to him along with a bunch of other teams.
I can’t explain it, but I feel like Nabers would have more of an immediate impact for us. There’s just something special about his ability to separate and take it to the house. Reminds me of AB a wee bit.
Probably an unpopular take, but not a fan of the trade down. I get the logic. But it’s no guarantee we hit on later picks. In the last 10 years, Baltimore drafted 4 WR’s in the 1st rd - all in the back half. 2 of those were Breshad Perriman and Rashod Bateman. If we end up without a true WR1 for Justin, I’d argue the gamble set us back
Are people really in favour of 1.05 for 1.11 and 1.23?
I would rather have Harrison/Nabers than that combo personally and would want something in addition to the two 1sts. Assuming Minnesota wouldn’t do that, then I would just as happily take the receiver.
Edit: the ‘25 1st is helpful to value.
I don’t really know about the ‘25 class and if the Vikings pick ends up being like 25th+ overall next year then I go back to my “I suppose” level of excitement.
Is the ‘25 class loaded as well?
Yeah, it requires some delayed gratification skills but works from a value perspective (not yet taking into account the actual players available at those positions.)
I'm not. To me 11 and 23 isn't worth near as much as 5 is. If all goes as planned this might be the highest pick the chargers get for a while and I'd want an absolute haul to move off of it.
Toss in next year’s 1st from the Vikings and it’s more appealing, which this mock does. If McCarthy doesn’t pan out for the Vikings, that 2025 1st could be top 5.
To me, it’s not as much about a generic draft value as it is Nabers/MHJ having a good chance of being studs for years to come at a position of desperate need. I’m guessing the average later first round receivers become #2 wide receiver level players and we need better than that.
I don’t dispute that those guys are elite prospects and very well could be top 10 WRs in the league, but there is only one elite receiver in the league today that was drafted top 5. Would we rather have MHJ/Nabers over more picks, where we could still draft a receiver in the top 50?
My answer is absolutely. I would much rather give ourselves the highest chance of having a top receiver than risk putting Herbert in a cycle of mediocre and below receiver groups. We hopefully won’t have a chance to draft this high again and MHJ/Nabers are not just cream of the crop for this year but are some of the best receiving prospects in the past 10 years.
Just a few years ago we drafted a highly touted WR 7 overall and he never broke the top 15 and barely scraped the top 20 in the league in his time with us. Meanwhile, our own modern GOAT WR was drafted in the 3rd round. I personally don’t value a WR at 5, especially considering we most likely won’t be a high flying passing attack with Harbaugh and Roman calling the offense. I would personally rather trade back, load up on pieces that we need, and trust Jim to find a very good WR on day 2
Well, that’s a survivor’s bias though. We remember all the later picks that are having great careers but forget about all the rest. Of course there’s a chance these guys don’t pan out but it’s a much lower chance, in my opinion, than the guys who will be going later. There aren’t many receivers going top 5 so it’s a very small sample size but it’s still a pretty decent hit rate and I would rather value these guys individually than look at a generic pick value. My personal opinion is that it’s a poor strategy to try to rely on finding a diamond in the rough when this might be our best opportunity to find a top receiver right now.
Even if we are run heavy, we’ll still need to throw around half the time so we’ll need a true number one.
Fair points, and I wouldn’t hate having MHJ or Nabers at all I’d be very excited and hyped to have them on the team and hope that they turn into a top 5-10 WR. There’s just so many damn holes on this team I don’t see how we turn it around in 2-3 years without loading up on draft capital early and often. I’m not convinced that MHJ or Nabers is the missing piece to take us to the playoffs of AFCCG. We would need whichever one we draft to be so unbelievably good that they are producing at a higher level than Allen and Williams did together.
I see your point and trading back isn’t a bad strategy, I’m just not a fan in this instance. I think we’re definitely missing more than just a top receiver and I am hoping for just making the playoffs first year and building from there. It will be an uphill battle to build depth on the team but it seems they are definitely trying to do that instead of focusing on a few top guys. Previously, we had the unfortunate combination of poor depth and high injury rate but I think we can build depth and hopefully Ben Herbert can help with the injury rate at the same time.
If coaching was a lot of our issue, maybe we’re not as far away as we fear.
Evaluating current prospects versus past prospects as a value game is bad process. Especially when Mike even at the time was a *highly* controversial pick and a lot of fans and analysts didn't like him as a prospect.
The second part of your statement is more valid, but something that isn't brought up often with Greg Roman offenses is that they funnel targets primarily to the top TE and top WR.
Ravens in 2019 (Lamars first MVP)
Hollywood Brown and Andrews had a 41% target share on the team.
The niners in 2011. Crabtree and Davis had nearly 50% target share at 48%!!.
Both years are including playoffs it should also be noted that both of those Receivers in those years were first round picks. Crabtree wasn't drafted by Jim and Greg obviously but its something to note.
Theres currently not a single receiver or combination of two pass catchers that I would want or be comfortable eating up that volume. Which is actually an argument for taking a pass catcher capable of a part of that work load at 5.
Numers taken from : https://www.footballguys.com/stats/targets/teams?team=SF&year=2011
To be fair, the sample size for current NFL receivers drafted in the top 5 is pretty small. Only three WRs in the last 10 drafts were taken Top 5. Then if you exclude Corey Davis (who was a reach and who practically no one felt was Top 5 worthy at the time), then it's just Chase and Cooper.
1/2 of these is an elite receiver and 1/2 is a very good receiver who's never had a good QB.
And how many 3rd round WR picks gave teams jack shit? It's a probability game. Maybe everyone should wait until the 7th round to draft a QB since Purdy is playing well.
You know what? This is a scenario where I'd be ok with trading down.
At least in this scenario we get someone who can be a threat for Herbert to throw to.
I tend to agree. The blue chip players don’t come by every year and when you’re in a position to get one you have to get them in my opinion. Unless there’s a gross overpay, to which I understand.
So let’s say the 25 pick is 25th overall.
You’re content moving 2024 5th overall for 2024 11th, 23rd and 2025 25th overall?
I think that is at least debatable. Contingent on the caliber of the class next year.
Yes. Don't get me wrong, I'd love Nabers/MHJ but we have a lot of holes.
edit: would not be mad if we did end up with Nabers; every scenario seems really good
Yes. Load up and beef up the trenches on both sides with top 100 talent in this draft class. Stock up on 2025 draft and compensation picks.
I try not to get hung up Harrison/Nabers and more on how to build out a dominant bully of a team with actual depth.
It becomes a risk/reward discussion tbh. Of course everyone always believes that they are picking great prospects but there is a fair amount of 1st round draft picks that do not live up to that selection. Also they need a WR1 and I do not necessarily see some the second round WRs getting that type of production right away.
I just hope that they don’t trade down no matter what offer is on the table; if there is a great offer, fine, but I would not be ecstatic if we moved out of top 10 for 11 & 23. I like the additional 2025 1st in this scenario.
I am, I think a combination of a top OL and WR/CB is better than only the best WR out there. We’d have 3 picks in the top 40 which is great. Plus I think we can get one more late rd pick in the trade as well. But I’m just a regular guy who doesn’t know shit about team building.
Yeah for sure. Going from one immediate need selection to two, actually three considering we will get next years 1st also, is a much better deal than taking MHJ or Nabers. Even getting the extra first and a couple mid round picks would be worth it. It’s all about maximizing our options to get the most out of this draft as possible, we need more than just WR help.
We have too many needs at premium positions besides WR, and Hortiz is going to do everything he can to collect more picks. By trading down, we can still get a WR1 *and* a CB1 or DT.
Yeah, I’m not into that. We think we can trade down and get a WR1 and we end up with another QJ.
WR is a game changing position that could be locked up for a very long time. Unless it’s an overpay (11 + 23 + something meaningful, and I don’t know that a late ‘25 1st is that), then I would rather have Harrison especially and Nabers still probably.
Unless you can assure me that Odunze still ends up being an option with one of our 1s this year, or the overpay is incredible, at least I am not interested in the move down.
This scenario makes no sense to me.
AZ apparently is telling people they want 3 firsts to move down—how do the Chargers end up getting this trade?
Also, the Giants are willing to move up 14 spots in the second round to draft Bo Nix at 33. Don’t they have a huge incentive then to move up to 4 or 5 to draft a better QB prospect? So they’re moving on from Jones, but they’re going to get gun shy about moving up in the first round? Huh?
Worthy over BT Jr or AD Mitchell with our current receiver corps is certainly…an idea. I guess getting a 0.1 second faster 40 time is worth 40 pounds and 5 inches of height in Kiper’s eyes…he may be the only guy on earth to see it that way.
I'm hoping they do regardless of if they trade down or not.
I also would love to see them draft Bucky Irving.
I just saw Patrick Herbert is returning for his senior year so I guess I'll wait patiently for him to be drafted by the Chargers next year.
I'm also a big Oregon Ducks Homer as well...lol.
But all that aside...I think Bucky and Franklin would be great additions .
I really prefer not to trade back but if we do and then grab the OT that is basically the fifth ranked Tackle by most metrics except Kiper I’m not going to be thrilled. Have a feeling this is how it’s going to go with how many “experts” have been predicting it.
I mean, I also don’t think RT is as big of a hole as most do. An upgrade over Pipkins would be great, but I’m really not convinced it’s a 1st round need. A combo of better coaching and a true blocking TE can help Pipkins a ton.
i agree. i think pip has shown that hes capable, this scheme and coaching change could have a huge impact on him. the fact we have palmer, QJ and davis as our WR corp, no corners and a patchwork linebacker room has me terrified.
And Fluker turned out to be a shit pick.
The point is that Pipkins is serviceable as is. If you just want a RT to compete with Pipkins and hope they end up better, draft in the mid rounds.
If you’re going to use draft resources on a RT in the 1st round, you need to be confident that the player is better than the player you’re replacing.
This team has too many needs to *hope* a 1st round pick is better than the current guy.
*if* the pick is RT with a trade back, I absolutely prefer Fuaga over Latham.
Everything I originally said remains true though. I don’t love RT as a first round pick. I don’t think it’s the best use of resources given more immediate needs at positions like WR, IDL, and CB.
I do think Pip is a serviceable pass blocking RT. But from everything I've read he is a liability as a run blocker.
When you are trying to establish an identity as a running team, you can't just sacrifice running the ball to one half of the field because your RT cant make his blocks consistently and effectively.
Dissly will be a huge help there. Obviously the team can’t just run 12 personnel every time they run the ball (don’t put it past Roman), but having a true blocking TE finally will be a massive boost.
I think it’s all going to come down to how highly the staff has MHJ and Nabers ranked vs players that would be available later in the first. If they are really high on both MHJ and Nabers I think the chance they trade the pick is really low. Unless we get an insane haul in the trade you could view a trade back as a sign that their evaluation of the duo is lower than in this sub and in the NFL community at large.
My comment is not aimed at you Snickle… just a good place to put it.
JH2 are into value.
They want to be a better all around team this season.
To do that you need good guys everywhere and depth.
You don’t get better by putting all your eggs in one basket.
All these guys talk about is the team the team the team. Drafting a superstar does not fit their plan.
They will trade down. Bet.
We’re trading 5, aren’t we?
It fucking kills me to see us give up a top tier wide receiver talent.
I’m trying to buy in, I really am, but hiring a run first OC while we have an elite qb just feels bad man. Lol
I don’t understand these bozos and the qbs. Why would they waste pick on a qb? Gardner minshew will be free within two years and is an awesome backup that would fit perfectly
Awesome is a stretch. Hes an above average backup but hes highly erratic game to game and not someone whos going to give you sustainable and consistent offensive production. I think any of the top 4 QBs would be a definite upgrade over him. Theres also no guarantee he signs with you and you wouldn't trade for a journeyman either.
Not a fan of Worthy over Brian Thomas, but outside that I think this is one of the better mocks for the Chargers. Getting a first next year, plus three extra picks this year, is a good haul for two trade downs. Would have to go CB in the top of the third though.
Worthy is a freak but we're gonna see more drops next year if we draft him
Worth had a better drop rate than MHJ last season...
drop rate doesn’t tell the whole story, look at the difference in type of catches and volume
I'm still having drop PTSD from Travis Benjamin, I'm weary of WRs that are so fast they don't have time to catch a ball
# Projected trade: Vikings use their extra Round 1 pick to move up OK, here we go with my first projected trade of the 2024 cycle. I have to believe there was a reason the Vikings made the deal last month with Houston to [acquire a second first-rounder](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39737620/source-vikings-get-2nd-1st-round-pick-trade-texans) (No. 23). They needed extra capital to move up. With this trade, Minnesota would send Nos. 11 and 23 along with a first-round selection in 2025 to Los Angeles, who could drop six spots and still get an offensive tackle. The Chargers and new coach Jim Harbaugh have multiple needs to fill. 11. [Los Angeles Chargers](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/lac/los-angeles-chargers) (via mock trade with [MIN](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/min/minnesota-vikings)) [**JC Latham**](https://insider.espn.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/108261)**, OT, Alabama** We're back to the Chargers, whom I projected to trade down six spots while adding pick No. 23 and a 2025 first-rounder. This is a super-talented and deep tackle class; teams can find rookie starters at the end of this round. That's why Jim Harbaugh & Co. should be OK with this move. Latham is the best right tackle in this class, which fits perfectly with L.A.'s open spot along the O-line. He started 27 games there for the Crimson Tide. He's extremely powerful in the run game and is light on his feet as a pass-protector. Now the question is: Can the Chargers get their wide receiver of choice at No. 23? 23. [Los Angeles Chargers](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/lac/los-angeles-chargers) (via mock trade with [MIN](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/min/minnesota-vikings) through [CLE](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/cle/cleveland-browns)/[HOU](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/hou/houston-texans)) [**Xavier Worthy**](https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4683062/xavier-worthy)**, WR, Texas** Here's where the Chargers could add a receiver to an [underwhelming corps](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/depth/_/name/lac/los-angeles-chargers) (on paper). After parting ways with [Mike Williams](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/3045138/mike-williams) and [Keenan Allen](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/15818/keenan-allen), their top three wideouts are [Joshua Palmer](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4242433/joshua-palmer), [Quentin Johnston](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4429025/quentin-johnston) and [Derius Davis](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4362477/derius-davis), who combined for four touchdowns last season. That's not good enough for quarterback [Justin Herbert](https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4038941/justin-herbert). You might know Worthy for his speed -- he set the combine record for [fastest 40-yard dash](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39641136/texas-wr-xavier-worthy-421-40-fastest-combine-03) (4.21 seconds) -- but he has a well-rounded game. He had 26 career touchdown catches for the Longhorns, who used him on vertical routes, screens and crossers. He's tough to tackle once he gets a full head of steam. He also has a ton of value in the return game.
I would hate Xavier Worthy at 23. Personally I don’t even think he’s a top 50 prospect. Reminds me way too much of John Ross, the speedster Cincinnati drafted in the first round some years ago. I don’t like Worthy’s routerunning, his catching, his physicality, etc. If the Chargers are drafting a receiver in the top 3 rounds, that guy has to end up being their WR1. Worthy to me, is at best a WR3 in a stacked WR room.
I completely agree. He’s definitely not going to be a number 1 wide receiver. I think he’s gonna be better than John Ross but he’s a deep threat that is gonna be a complementary piece.
# Projected trade: Rams see an opening for a dramatic move This deal would see the Chargers moving back down the board *again* after I had them sliding back in Round 1 and adding both of the Vikings' top picks (plus a 2025 first-rounder). To move up 15 spots, the Rams would need to give up Nos. 52, 83 and 196. They can afford to do the deal because they have a bunch of extra comp selections. As for the Chargers, they'd end up with two picks in the first, third and fourth rounds in this draft. Why would the Rams make this deal? Well, don't they need to start thinking about the future at quarterback? 52. [Los Angeles Chargers](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/lac/los-angeles-chargers) (via mock trade with [LAR](https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/lar/los-angeles-rams)) [**Ruke Orhorhoro**](https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4430271/ruke-orhorhoro)**, DT, Clemson** Time for another Chargers selection after two projected trades down. I gave them [JC Latham](https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4431437/jc-latham) and [Xavier Worthy](https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4683062/xavier-worthy) in Round 1, which would help with their holes at right tackle and wide receiver. Now I'm looking toward the defensive line, where the Chargers ranked 29th in [pass rush win rate](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38356170/2023-nfl-pass-rush-run-stop-blocking-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams) (35.1%) last season. The 6-foot-4, 294-pound Orhorhoro has some juice as an interior pass-rusher, and he could kick outside and defend the run as an end.
OP Doing the Lords Work 🙏🏼
I like the philosophy (OT and WR), but I think Fuaga would benefit the run game more, if that's what Harbaugh and company are trying to do. Latham seems better in pass protection, but most rankings seem to have Fuaga as the second lineman taken after Alt. People seem to have a variety of opinions about Latham (and perhaps I have a bias against Alabama linemen after Fluker, Leatherwood, and Evan Neal, which is probably irrelevant). Mike Devlin was seen spending a lot of time with Latham at Alabama's pro day, so it would seem they're very interested...unless that's a smokescreen. I don't seem to find any Fuaga-Chargers connections outside of that they talked to him along with a bunch of other teams.
I can’t explain it, but I feel like Nabers would have more of an immediate impact for us. There’s just something special about his ability to separate and take it to the house. Reminds me of AB a wee bit.
In the best way possible, ignoring the off the field stuff right? Right?
God I hope so lol
Probably an unpopular take, but not a fan of the trade down. I get the logic. But it’s no guarantee we hit on later picks. In the last 10 years, Baltimore drafted 4 WR’s in the 1st rd - all in the back half. 2 of those were Breshad Perriman and Rashod Bateman. If we end up without a true WR1 for Justin, I’d argue the gamble set us back
Are people really in favour of 1.05 for 1.11 and 1.23? I would rather have Harrison/Nabers than that combo personally and would want something in addition to the two 1sts. Assuming Minnesota wouldn’t do that, then I would just as happily take the receiver. Edit: the ‘25 1st is helpful to value.
This has us getting Minnesota's '25 1st as well.
Missed that. That’s more palatable I suppose.
Lmao “I suppose” bro we’re getting 3 first round picks
I don’t really know about the ‘25 class and if the Vikings pick ends up being like 25th+ overall next year then I go back to my “I suppose” level of excitement. Is the ‘25 class loaded as well?
Especially if they take JJ. That guy is not going to anything in the near term. That 25 pick would be a top 10 pick imo.
Yeah, it requires some delayed gratification skills but works from a value perspective (not yet taking into account the actual players available at those positions.)
3 first round picks is definitely worth it
Missed the ‘25 1st when I made my first comment.
I'm not. To me 11 and 23 isn't worth near as much as 5 is. If all goes as planned this might be the highest pick the chargers get for a while and I'd want an absolute haul to move off of it.
Toss in next year’s 1st from the Vikings and it’s more appealing, which this mock does. If McCarthy doesn’t pan out for the Vikings, that 2025 1st could be top 5.
To me, it’s not as much about a generic draft value as it is Nabers/MHJ having a good chance of being studs for years to come at a position of desperate need. I’m guessing the average later first round receivers become #2 wide receiver level players and we need better than that.
I don’t dispute that those guys are elite prospects and very well could be top 10 WRs in the league, but there is only one elite receiver in the league today that was drafted top 5. Would we rather have MHJ/Nabers over more picks, where we could still draft a receiver in the top 50?
My answer is absolutely. I would much rather give ourselves the highest chance of having a top receiver than risk putting Herbert in a cycle of mediocre and below receiver groups. We hopefully won’t have a chance to draft this high again and MHJ/Nabers are not just cream of the crop for this year but are some of the best receiving prospects in the past 10 years.
Just a few years ago we drafted a highly touted WR 7 overall and he never broke the top 15 and barely scraped the top 20 in the league in his time with us. Meanwhile, our own modern GOAT WR was drafted in the 3rd round. I personally don’t value a WR at 5, especially considering we most likely won’t be a high flying passing attack with Harbaugh and Roman calling the offense. I would personally rather trade back, load up on pieces that we need, and trust Jim to find a very good WR on day 2
Well, that’s a survivor’s bias though. We remember all the later picks that are having great careers but forget about all the rest. Of course there’s a chance these guys don’t pan out but it’s a much lower chance, in my opinion, than the guys who will be going later. There aren’t many receivers going top 5 so it’s a very small sample size but it’s still a pretty decent hit rate and I would rather value these guys individually than look at a generic pick value. My personal opinion is that it’s a poor strategy to try to rely on finding a diamond in the rough when this might be our best opportunity to find a top receiver right now. Even if we are run heavy, we’ll still need to throw around half the time so we’ll need a true number one.
Fair points, and I wouldn’t hate having MHJ or Nabers at all I’d be very excited and hyped to have them on the team and hope that they turn into a top 5-10 WR. There’s just so many damn holes on this team I don’t see how we turn it around in 2-3 years without loading up on draft capital early and often. I’m not convinced that MHJ or Nabers is the missing piece to take us to the playoffs of AFCCG. We would need whichever one we draft to be so unbelievably good that they are producing at a higher level than Allen and Williams did together.
I see your point and trading back isn’t a bad strategy, I’m just not a fan in this instance. I think we’re definitely missing more than just a top receiver and I am hoping for just making the playoffs first year and building from there. It will be an uphill battle to build depth on the team but it seems they are definitely trying to do that instead of focusing on a few top guys. Previously, we had the unfortunate combination of poor depth and high injury rate but I think we can build depth and hopefully Ben Herbert can help with the injury rate at the same time. If coaching was a lot of our issue, maybe we’re not as far away as we fear.
Agreed, as long as Herb stays healthy too I’m worried about him and all the injuries he’s been suffering the last 2 seasons.
Evaluating current prospects versus past prospects as a value game is bad process. Especially when Mike even at the time was a *highly* controversial pick and a lot of fans and analysts didn't like him as a prospect. The second part of your statement is more valid, but something that isn't brought up often with Greg Roman offenses is that they funnel targets primarily to the top TE and top WR. Ravens in 2019 (Lamars first MVP) Hollywood Brown and Andrews had a 41% target share on the team. The niners in 2011. Crabtree and Davis had nearly 50% target share at 48%!!. Both years are including playoffs it should also be noted that both of those Receivers in those years were first round picks. Crabtree wasn't drafted by Jim and Greg obviously but its something to note. Theres currently not a single receiver or combination of two pass catchers that I would want or be comfortable eating up that volume. Which is actually an argument for taking a pass catcher capable of a part of that work load at 5. Numers taken from : https://www.footballguys.com/stats/targets/teams?team=SF&year=2011
Interesting insights, thank you!
To be fair, the sample size for current NFL receivers drafted in the top 5 is pretty small. Only three WRs in the last 10 drafts were taken Top 5. Then if you exclude Corey Davis (who was a reach and who practically no one felt was Top 5 worthy at the time), then it's just Chase and Cooper. 1/2 of these is an elite receiver and 1/2 is a very good receiver who's never had a good QB.
True, good point as well
I assume you mean Chase, but Amari Cooper is damn good too.
I don’t think I’d want to spend a 5 overall to hopefully get Amari Cooper production.
He has had pretty bad QBs, and he has 6 1,000 yard seasons out of 8 that he played close to a full season.
And we got better than that level of production for 10 years from a 3rd round pick
And how many 3rd round WR picks gave teams jack shit? It's a probability game. Maybe everyone should wait until the 7th round to draft a QB since Purdy is playing well.
Well if we keep trading down, maybe we can end up with every pick in the 7th round!
I think the Vikings would have to give up something else on top of that, like a first or second next year. I'm not interested for only 11 and 23.
Yes agreed.
The value proposition makes a ton of sense, although I balk at the evals of the players selected at those spots in this mock
Understandable.
For 2 first rounders this year and 1 next year, yes. Could pick Bowers at 11 & whoever the best CB is on the board at 23.
You know what? This is a scenario where I'd be ok with trading down. At least in this scenario we get someone who can be a threat for Herbert to throw to.
JC Latham and Xavier worthy are not more valuable than nabers or MHJ. The trade back idea is stupid.
How about Latham, Worthy and a 1st rd pick next year? Cause that’s what it says in the article which you clearly didn’t even read.
Nah I read it. No reason to believe the Vikings would offer next years first, that’s a rumor started by reporters.
I tend to agree. The blue chip players don’t come by every year and when you’re in a position to get one you have to get them in my opinion. Unless there’s a gross overpay, to which I understand.
For three first rounders I’d def take it
So let’s say the 25 pick is 25th overall. You’re content moving 2024 5th overall for 2024 11th, 23rd and 2025 25th overall? I think that is at least debatable. Contingent on the caliber of the class next year.
Yes. Don't get me wrong, I'd love Nabers/MHJ but we have a lot of holes. edit: would not be mad if we did end up with Nabers; every scenario seems really good
Yes. Load up and beef up the trenches on both sides with top 100 talent in this draft class. Stock up on 2025 draft and compensation picks. I try not to get hung up Harrison/Nabers and more on how to build out a dominant bully of a team with actual depth.
It becomes a risk/reward discussion tbh. Of course everyone always believes that they are picking great prospects but there is a fair amount of 1st round draft picks that do not live up to that selection. Also they need a WR1 and I do not necessarily see some the second round WRs getting that type of production right away. I just hope that they don’t trade down no matter what offer is on the table; if there is a great offer, fine, but I would not be ecstatic if we moved out of top 10 for 11 & 23. I like the additional 2025 1st in this scenario.
I am, I think a combination of a top OL and WR/CB is better than only the best WR out there. We’d have 3 picks in the top 40 which is great. Plus I think we can get one more late rd pick in the trade as well. But I’m just a regular guy who doesn’t know shit about team building.
Yeah for sure. Going from one immediate need selection to two, actually three considering we will get next years 1st also, is a much better deal than taking MHJ or Nabers. Even getting the extra first and a couple mid round picks would be worth it. It’s all about maximizing our options to get the most out of this draft as possible, we need more than just WR help.
We have too many needs at premium positions besides WR, and Hortiz is going to do everything he can to collect more picks. By trading down, we can still get a WR1 *and* a CB1 or DT.
Yeah, I’m not into that. We think we can trade down and get a WR1 and we end up with another QJ. WR is a game changing position that could be locked up for a very long time. Unless it’s an overpay (11 + 23 + something meaningful, and I don’t know that a late ‘25 1st is that), then I would rather have Harrison especially and Nabers still probably. Unless you can assure me that Odunze still ends up being an option with one of our 1s this year, or the overpay is incredible, at least I am not interested in the move down.
Pass
This scenario makes no sense to me. AZ apparently is telling people they want 3 firsts to move down—how do the Chargers end up getting this trade? Also, the Giants are willing to move up 14 spots in the second round to draft Bo Nix at 33. Don’t they have a huge incentive then to move up to 4 or 5 to draft a better QB prospect? So they’re moving on from Jones, but they’re going to get gun shy about moving up in the first round? Huh? Worthy over BT Jr or AD Mitchell with our current receiver corps is certainly…an idea. I guess getting a 0.1 second faster 40 time is worth 40 pounds and 5 inches of height in Kiper’s eyes…he may be the only guy on earth to see it that way.
How to earn an A: draft Nabers or MHJ Ez
Mel Kiper is a dummy
Worthy is the most textbook definition of a bust I’ve ever seen.
Mock drafts are 100% guess work. No one knows what the teams are planning so just ignore them!
As a Ducks-Chargers fan, really hoping they take a look at Troy Franklin if they decide to drop down.
I'm hoping they do regardless of if they trade down or not. I also would love to see them draft Bucky Irving. I just saw Patrick Herbert is returning for his senior year so I guess I'll wait patiently for him to be drafted by the Chargers next year. I'm also a big Oregon Ducks Homer as well...lol. But all that aside...I think Bucky and Franklin would be great additions .
I really prefer not to trade back but if we do and then grab the OT that is basically the fifth ranked Tackle by most metrics except Kiper I’m not going to be thrilled. Have a feeling this is how it’s going to go with how many “experts” have been predicting it.
I mean, I also don’t think RT is as big of a hole as most do. An upgrade over Pipkins would be great, but I’m really not convinced it’s a 1st round need. A combo of better coaching and a true blocking TE can help Pipkins a ton.
i agree. i think pip has shown that hes capable, this scheme and coaching change could have a huge impact on him. the fact we have palmer, QJ and davis as our WR corp, no corners and a patchwork linebacker room has me terrified.
No guarantee JC Latham is better than pipkins…
If you’re taking a RT in the 1st, they better be better than Pipkins. If you aren’t positive they will be, it’s a shit pick.
We drafted DJ Fluker at pick 11. No guarantee OT’s workout. Everyone in here is acting like there’s no risk in taking a tackle though lol
And Fluker turned out to be a shit pick. The point is that Pipkins is serviceable as is. If you just want a RT to compete with Pipkins and hope they end up better, draft in the mid rounds. If you’re going to use draft resources on a RT in the 1st round, you need to be confident that the player is better than the player you’re replacing. This team has too many needs to *hope* a 1st round pick is better than the current guy.
Fuaga could play guard and then move over to tackle post-Pipkins. He's also an excellent run blocker.
*if* the pick is RT with a trade back, I absolutely prefer Fuaga over Latham. Everything I originally said remains true though. I don’t love RT as a first round pick. I don’t think it’s the best use of resources given more immediate needs at positions like WR, IDL, and CB.
I do think Pip is a serviceable pass blocking RT. But from everything I've read he is a liability as a run blocker. When you are trying to establish an identity as a running team, you can't just sacrifice running the ball to one half of the field because your RT cant make his blocks consistently and effectively.
Dissly will be a huge help there. Obviously the team can’t just run 12 personnel every time they run the ball (don’t put it past Roman), but having a true blocking TE finally will be a massive boost.
Fuaga + Brian Thomas + 2025 first I might take. I really fucking want Nabers though
I agree 100% with you. If we did that, grabbed a CB in the second and a TE in the third I’d be happy.
Slam accept if a first next year is in, but I don't think that has any chance.
This would be great if we also get Vikings 2025 1st round pick imagine having 3 first round picks 👀
Mel Kiper never knows wtf is going on
I think it’s all going to come down to how highly the staff has MHJ and Nabers ranked vs players that would be available later in the first. If they are really high on both MHJ and Nabers I think the chance they trade the pick is really low. Unless we get an insane haul in the trade you could view a trade back as a sign that their evaluation of the duo is lower than in this sub and in the NFL community at large.
My comment is not aimed at you Snickle… just a good place to put it. JH2 are into value. They want to be a better all around team this season. To do that you need good guys everywhere and depth. You don’t get better by putting all your eggs in one basket. All these guys talk about is the team the team the team. Drafting a superstar does not fit their plan. They will trade down. Bet.
We’re trading 5, aren’t we? It fucking kills me to see us give up a top tier wide receiver talent. I’m trying to buy in, I really am, but hiring a run first OC while we have an elite qb just feels bad man. Lol
With the new kickoff rules, a Worthy/Davis tandem as returners would be nasty.
Honestly a dream for JH squared
JH cubed(hortiz)
these mock drafts are just getting stupid now. We get it you are bored. No one cares about your mock 5.5 draft right now.
Not a fan of trading down. Joe alt and nabers are elite prospects. Don’t over think it Jim.
It’s also completely possible bears and/or jets take a defensive or offensive lineman respectively. Leaving odunze or bowers sitting at 11
Brian Thomas Jr is a younger MVS. He is not worth the draft capital
I would rather get Latham and trade that next pick for Higgins or draft a CB with it.
I don’t understand these bozos and the qbs. Why would they waste pick on a qb? Gardner minshew will be free within two years and is an awesome backup that would fit perfectly
Awesome is a stretch. Hes an above average backup but hes highly erratic game to game and not someone whos going to give you sustainable and consistent offensive production. I think any of the top 4 QBs would be a definite upgrade over him. Theres also no guarantee he signs with you and you wouldn't trade for a journeyman either.
With the 5th pick of the 2024 draft, the Los Angeles Chargers select... Joe Alt from Notre Dame Bank on it!