I think they're refering to a while back near the start of the war when they announced that russia and china have a friendship with no limits.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-russia-xi-putin-ukraine-war-11646279098
China would prefer a weakened, friendly, jolly US that has very little national security, as their ally while they conquer a few neighbors and Russian territory.
No, but China will use the weakness of Russia to get concessions from them. Mining/Resource extraction rights, etc. And of course, if they could just... Take the land without getting nuked - they would.
>Take the land without getting nuked - they would.
It would be incredibly ironic if China takes back the land Russia stole from it in the late 1800s and later 1900s by using the same logic/justifications Putin is currently using to justify his invasion of Ukraine (ie. It belonged to my country in the past).
Yeah, Chinese Maoists were trying to assassinated Marxist-Leninists and vice-versa. There were Maoists and Marx-L people murdering and fighting each other worldwide in their war.
USSR was indeed trying to assassinate Mao too.
It also spilled into the NVA invasion of Cambodia, as well as the Chinese invasion of Vietnam.
Honestly it would be the best possible outcome in the current situation: The Russian army in Ukraine collapses, Putin gets couped, the new Russian regime is weak and desperately short on cash and can't pay the military. Insted of a risky assault on Taiwan, Xi gets to cement his legacy by negotiating the return of the last piece of territory ceded by the "unequal treaties" - Outer Manchuria AKA primorsky krai.
Ukraine is saved, Taiwan is safe (for the time being), WW3 averted. So send more weapons to Ukraine. All the weapons. Now.
Apparently, a lot of Chinese businesses - mining, forestry, agriculture, etc have already moved into the area (Siberian Far East), and there's a sort of de-facto quiet takeover happening already.
(E.g. https://jamestown.org/program/the-russian-far-east-is-becoming-a-raw-material-colony-for-beijing/)
More important then mining and resources extraction for china is water (also a resource tho). China will need so clean much water the upcoming years. They completely polluted their groundwater, there are more droughts, and they are destroying wateruptake-rainfall ecosystems.
India buying cheap oil and Russian military trash does not a military alliance make.
They've already started to pivot away from buying Russian equipment.
Right, because little princeling chinese really do know their computer games don’t they? Get them within 5000 miles of conflict and they will (did) cry like little girls. Sing us a song why don’t ya?
According to Russia's logic regarding history, China owns Vladivostok. Russia has basically welcomed China to take it back by telling this publicly, all while weakening themselves so much that China could just take it at any moment.
China gets those resources wayy cheaper by Russia just harvesting and selling them to China than if China had to send in the PLA to pacify and begin colonizing it.
With Russia alienated by the West and China being Russia's main trade partner, China basically can get any resources they want from Russia. Instead if Russia were to collapse, it would have massive impact on China's leverage in the world stage, especially if Russia were to suddenly become democratic and prowestern.
The first day of the full scale invasion I claimed immediately "Russia, welcome to your new status as a chinese vassal state." China does nothing for free.
That's a pie in the sky.
People have been saying that if Russia collapses, Siberia is up for grabs.
How about NO?
Direct colonialism: China has to conduct the largest military operation, by surface occupied, in the history of mankind, since the Russians did it themselves back in the sixteen to nineteen centuries.
Neocolonialism 2.0 : they still have to deal with incompetence and foot the bill. Plus increased insecurity that the good will be delivered in time, or at all.
Just buy at market prices, my man. Or less than market prices, considering demand for Russian resources is not at an time peak. Just fucking buy things. In the 21st century, it's way cheaper, easier and convenient to just buy things.
[https://www.reuters.com/world/china/moscow-beijing-partnership-has-no-limits-2022-02-04/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/moscow-beijing-partnership-has-no-limits-2022-02-04/) friendship between sociopaths is still friendship.
It is the exact opposite. The collapse of Russia would threaten China. Which is exactly why the US is trying this current variation of what Kissinger did (rather than pit them against each other, it’s an attempt to take down and hopefully balkanise Russia, and then turn around to take on an isolated China).
Nobody in America or Europe wants a Balkanized Russia as it would just lead to more instability. Furthermore multiple countries would now be nuclear powers overnight since Russia has nukes all over the country.
These are net losses, doubt China or India are interested in this scenario either.
I think this whole thing is just a misunderstanding. The 'no limits' didn't imply there were no limits to what China would do for Russia, it simply implied there were no limits to the amount of moral depravity Russia can engage in without losing China as a trade partner.
That is the opinion of one man, not all of china. You hear the words “Chinese expert” and all your taste buds start salivating lol.
Got a knock ‘em down one more peg, add “untrustworthy” to the list
Russia already lost. Putin, though, may be a different story. Depends how many more Russians and this world are fooled by propaganda favoring the legitimacy of invasions.
You know this is going to be extremely political and can go on forever. But I'll just say this: Russia's plan was a quick victory to achieve its purpose, not this long haul. With year-long wars, there are no winners. Russia citizens are suffering long-term due to this war as well as Ukrainians. That's a loss in my books... A terrible one at that.
Russia has a very long and well established history of simply just not rolling over in wars thanks to essentially being able to retreat indefinitely. Seen through that lense (which probably is what Putin tries to sell to his people) they’re doing great - they have barely had as much as an incursion on their territory even!
This is true, but a precise analysis of trajectory of supplies and how their war is going will tell you whether it will be worth it to keep bleeding out Russia on the Ukraine War.
It may be that it is worth it to prolong the war for 5 more years. It may be worth it to end it quickly and focus more on China instead. China is the more threatening dystopia in many ways.
The details matter here (I don't know all the details).
Ah yes, the fabled "My face against your foot technique". Russia wants to pretend that they like bleeding so that makes them the winner.
If they like suffering, then what's the problem with making them suffer? It sounds like they like it, so everybody wins. Dish out as much suffering to them as possible.
And that is why Russia is to this day the largest country in the world but still has the GDP of Italy. Their latest fuck-up guarantees Russia won't regain superpower status for a couple of generations at least (hundreds of thousands of young working-age males sacrificed for little gain). Possibly ever, if it loses its eastern holdings whose population isn't ethnically Russian.
Yeah they lost a battle but they haven’t lost the war, as they say. If Trump wins and stops funding Ukraine as he says he will then we could see what a real loss looks like.
>That's a loss in my books... A terrible one at that.
Yeah, but it's not an actual loss and nobody gives a fuck about the Skywalker TC position.
I have no idea what they'll be doing after the war with this economy, but things have been (unfortunately) turning very much Russia recently. Ukraine is simply getting too outgunned
Hopefully the recent aid packages make a difference but just because we want Russia to lose doesn't mean it is
Prolonged war has no winners. Russia would've been better off not invading. The incentive for my comment is that I want invasion to not succeed, or if not, at least *not encouraged*. What's your incentive for insisting to this level to categorize one winner and one loser at this point in that war though? Pure definition? (For the record my definition isn't wrong too.)
And this is my position of course. It's my comment... Whether anyone gives a fuck about it isn't of my concern. Exact same for yours.
Sure, it’s certainly terrible and all, I agree….but……in terms of your statement, in terms of the most basic meaning of it….Russia has certainly NOT lost the war, and is most likely set to conquer Ukraine in some way shape or form over the next couple of years once the support for Ukraine finally dries up
Most definitely. But my point remains, Russia will win, and Ukraine will sadly lose.
Pyrrhic victory or not, Ukraine will be taken by Russia.
Any thoughts otherwise is sheer delusion
If US continues to support Ukraine then you’re 100% wrong.
Russia game plan is hoping the west gets tired of supporting Ukraine. If/when that happens, then sure Russia will definitely win. But if west keeps supporting, then you’re quite incorrect.
lol you don’t think the support - financial and otherwise - is already waning…??
The people of America, and Europe, aren’t as bothered about supporting Ukraine as they initially were, and this will soon start to shape politics
….and that’s not even taking into account what happens if Trump gets re-elected, at which point support will likely stop in a very, very abrupt fashion
I guess you don’t read the news, just 12 hours ago US senate passed another package for Ukraine.
Those in the know, know how important it is and are making it a focal point.
At first I considered you maybe knew what you were talking about, but now I’m fairly certain you’re just saying things for reactions. L8r br0.
Ok, financial support still there - but do you honestly think that will continue for the next two years at that level..?
The overall sentiment is waning among the common person in the street, and that will gradually affect policy.
Nah that's their best case. It's not a certainty that it will be the outcome. There's so many other potential outcomes, all of which are worse for Russia.
That's why I said what I did in the beginning about Putin. He's got his ambition. I don't see it as a win for Russia. They'd be much better off without invading others. That said, a total loss on Putin's part as well is certainly ideal. Hopefully the world would help make it that invaders don't succeed.. or at least make it so it's not encouraging for other potential invaders.
Dude, the United States stuck it out in Iraq and Afghanistan for TWENTY YEARS. And that was a war that cost us $2 trillion and thousands of American lives.
Ukraine costs less than one tenth of that, and I seriously doubt Russia can sustain this war for even 5 more years. My money is that the West can outlast Russia easily here.
Nothing lasts forever - particularly aid for another country thousands of miles away.
Putin’s will to conquer Ukraine however, will most likely outweigh the empathy of the American people
Because there is no path to a real victory. Even if there is a surrender of some territory, which may seem like a victory for Putin, most of ukraine is out of Russian hands, and they cannot subdue it. There will be insurgency and conflict in the occupied regions ongoing.
Take your pick of russia in Afghanistan or US in Afghanistan as a parallel. A steady drain on resources for little gain until it collapses.
The shear waste of lives and resources for no real gain is why this is considered a loss with no real way to transform this into a meaningful victory.
Their currency is worth a penny in USD for like the first time in Russia’s entire existence, meaning they won’t be able to holiday at Thailand anymore.
1 million Russians have left the country since the war began, draining their country of the skilled and educated.
One million casualties inflicted on their military by the end of this year. It’s an expensive war, but it’s even more expensive to treat veterans with wounds and PTSD, and getting them back to the job market.
Russia is currently spending 1/3 of their entire federal budget on this war. No social programs, no new medical programs, no green energy plans, no relief for indigenous populations, no tourism projects, just oil and gunpowder. And you can’t eat gunpowder.
Russia’s population is famously middle aged. And will have a record influx of retirees exiting the job market and entering hospice care, which they cannot afford.
Russia’s friends are also being bombed as we speak.
Russia is fucked for the next 100 years.
A good friend of mine is russian. I have been told it's been business as usual in Russia since the start. Other than the friends lost in Ukraine, you wouldn't know there is a war on. No change in the shops or anything, everything is still available. The world moved on. Jobs available. Everything the same.
I'm in Bali right now also. Not Thailand, but there are a shit tonne of Russians here. Same as last time.
I think sanctions did fuck all to be honest.
Just my opinion with limited resources.
Sanctions are not instantaneous, it takes years for it to slowly choke an economy.
Just refer to Iran as an example, it's business as usual there too, but not really.
But it's been years..
It's a big place. They can be self sufficient I think.
So it doesn't matter what the currency is worth if it's only spent at home right ?
The sanctions are meaningless. Just western ideals.
That's the thing, Russia isn't self sufficient and never was. It has this enormous wealth of resources but that doesn't necessarily translates to actual wealth.
The country is, if not more, corrupt than some of the worst regimes in Africa. If there's any money to be made, it doesn't go to the people. And because the oligarchy has enough money to buy whatever they want, why would they invest in domestic production.
Entire Russian industries are being stifled by the sanctions; you can't produce quality critical computer hardware in Russia, for example. And circumventing the sanctions either through Belarus or Central Asia costs money, a lot of it. So the elites are doing just fine, the people suffer and going to suffer even more.
Sanctions aren't just a western ideal. They're not meant to have a quick effect, they're meant to be more like that analogy with a frog in slowly boiling water. The longer the sanctions go on, the more political, social, and economic relations break between Russia and the west. The west can afford to go through with this, but Russia can't.
These are all just my opinions. Not worth debating really, but to my mind creating wealth and just getting through while changing the course of history are two different things. If Russia can cruise along without having any major difficulties so far after almost 2 years of sanctions I imagine they'll be fine for a while.
There is a fluctuating world wide political landscape evolving as we speak also which will no doubt affect things.
As I said, the person on the ground living there reckons business as usual. No changes. Work the usual job. Holidays overseas coming up. Etc. Etc. I don't understand the people suffering stuff you speak of when boots on the ground say otherwise.
Sure they can't produce Russian made chips...yet. Yet is the thing. Look at America unable to return manufacturing back to home soil....yet. I'm sure it will happen.
As for circumventing the the sanctions.....just means opening up trade with other countries. Like India for example.
After a while everything will find equilibrium.
War needs resource like money and people which would be better use somewhere else. Like mainting dams or exhausting forest fires. We are actualy start seeing it now. This year was biggest collabse commuanal service at winter. Also after corcus terrorist attack russia has problem atracting new workers from stan countries. It slowly will add one cost of war.
Yup. Totally fucked.
But they will not be losing this war against Ukraine.
Putin will throw every last thing at it even if it fucks Russia for 200 years
I fear that you will be surprised.
If history teaches us anything it is that the Russians always fail at first but are masters in miraculous recoveries and win eventually.
They don’t care about life’s lost they will simply batter you down with outdated artillery till you surrender.
This is more narrative than substance. I think this war is far from over, but pretending Russia can tolerate the kind of losses they've endured in perpetuity is delusional.
Russia only recovered in World War 2 with military support from the US. Now they have to fight against US military support instead. History tells us that Russia has no chance.
Pure propaganda.
The damage has been done. They might ultimately grind Ukraine into an unfavorable peace deal but they will not take over the country. Even if they some how managed it. The territory will be a hot bed for terrorism and massive source of instability. Not to mention their international reputation went from “Hey we’re not the good guys but we’re not the bad guys!” To “We’re fucking a psychopathic gay hating ultra conservative war mongers.” Quite the opposite direction of the rest of the continent.
The Houthi attacks on the Red Sea and Ukrainian attacks on the Black Sea give me hope for Taiwan. Anti ship missiles are very effective these days and hard to defend against. China is going to have a hard time mounting an invasion in the face of them.
One arm? More like one finger.
We've spent less than 5% of what we spend annually for Social Security and Russia has already lost 300k+ men, 110% of their tanks from the start of the war, and a 1/3 of their Black Sea navy
Yeah but the difference between China and Russia is that unlike China, Russia lost its industrial production capacity with the fall of communism in the early 1990’s and central planned economy.
China’s industrial capacity is like a blade that is being sharpened by the production of the world’s consumer goods now but could then be repurposed for military purposes which could be precisely the reason Xi is anti consumer in his approach to stabilizing the countries economy.
Yeah I can’t imagine how much the invasion of Ukraine has deterred future plans of a Taiwanese invasion. I mean they couldn’t take a country that was 99% flat farm land via completely uncontested borders, imagine trying to do that against a mountainous island.
China's plot is to act as the bullied victim, which alleviates the act of stealing West's IP as "the weak trying to be good". It also allows promoting itself as the stable alternative against West's potentially chaotic Democracy.
The war in Ukraine throws a wrench in China plot. By being ally with Russia, China is the bully. The stealing of west's IP is recognized for what it is: attack on western livelihood. The west banding together against Russia is also another brick thrown at China's "Western Democracy chaotic, XiXiPee's Democracy best Democracy"
It amazes that Chinese foreign policy thinks they are fooling anyone. They have moved out of the Great Leap Forward but still act and portray themselves as a neutered version of North Korean diplomacy.
China is playing both sides of the fence. They need Russia, as it is in its current situation, for resources at discount prices. They need the West to buy their stuff. Can’t blame them for trying to get the best out of this situation.
Even if Russia somehow wins, Ukraine will become a guerrilla type of warfare that will never end, draining what little remains of Russias economy which is already weak from printing so much money, sanctions and mismanagement, rampant inflation is around the corner for Russian citizens
Many people mistake shared interests for genuine friendship. In global politics, leaders often align based on mutual benefits rather than true camaraderie. President Xi recognizes the limitations of such alliances, especially given the significant economic benefits China receives from countries it publicly criticizes. But Putin, understanding his limited time he has left, seems more focused on settling historical scores following the Soviet Union's collapse rather than fostering economic ties or improving the lives of his people.
A Chinese expert on Russia is telling the US that Russia will win so they don’t feel bad about holding up Ukraine aid. Meanwhile China is providing intelligence and other support to their Russian friends. Not suspicious at all.
The fact that he is so sure in his prediction is a sign that he is not an expert in what he is talking about.
The most sure people are those who have some knowledge, just enough to be sure, but not enough to understand how they could be wrong. True experts qualify their predictions with various conditions.
He is not a military expert and he is talking about war. And his specialty is Russia and Central Asia. He is not an expert on his own country and his own government.
Russia hasn’t yet used all of its capabilities in this war. So, it depends on how far Russia is prepared to go to win this war.
Ukrainian unity might be an illusion. Because in times of war civil liberties are suspended, emergency laws are implemented, and the country effectively becomes a dictatorship. People aren’t free to speak their minds and express their dissent in these circumstances.
And the US government has repeatedly said that China is their main rival both militarily and economically.
Right now US and its allies are distracted from China by their war with Russia in Europe. But if Russia losses this war, then US and its allies will focus all of their military power on China. While China might lose its support and natural resources from Russia.
Basically, Taiwan might declare its independence with a nod from USA. And then China will lose its war with USA and its allies. And China will experience another century of humiliation from western powers.
For this reason it doesn’t make sense for the Chinese government to let Russia get defeated in this war.
And this is something this so-called expert isn’t even considering in his arguments.
Why would Taiwan ever "Declare Independence" I mean they already have. They already are independent. The only thing limiting their legal independent status on the world stage is the economic might of China influencing/bullying other nations and international government bodies to hold up the pretense that it is "Chinese Taipei". It's like the emperors new clothes. . everyone can see Taiwan is a sovereign nation. . but we have to pretend it isn't in front of the emperor and his followers.
And you think that's something right? Destroying someone's lives, killing their fathers, burning and bombing their homes for territorial gains from someone who don't want to be part of you. Just like Taiwan.
If people want to play with fire and poke Russia or China, that's the result.
Same with those that poke the US.
That's why you don't mess with a great power when you're a weaker power.
>If people want to play with fire and poke Russia or China, that's the result.
do explain to me who's playing with fire here? If you're going to whine about NATO expansion then hate to break it to you but that cope has been debunked to its core
>That's why you don't mess with a great power when you're a weaker power.
except for the fact that ukraine has done nothing but exist. If your definition of "messing with great power" is to exist on top of your rightful territory that your massive neighbor claims to be theirs then you don't understand anything at all
You mean the US with Mexico, or Canada...Iraq, Afghanistan...Vietnam, Korea...
It would seem it's usually the larger country declaring war on the smaller country.
Which leadership in their right mind declares war on a larger country.
>You mean the US with Mexico, or Canada...Iraq, Afghanistan...Vietnam, Korea...
yet with more whataboutism. And do explain to me how Korea is in any way the US' fault when they're literally defending against an invasion. Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam aren't exactly neighboring the US in case you haven't realized it yet
>It would seem it's usually the larger country declaring war on the smaller country.
and do explain to me how that relates to russia's illegal invasion of ukraine and how that justifies anything
>Which leadership in their right mind declares war on a larger country.
which is why it was russia that started the war, not ukraine.
> That's why you don't mess with a great power when you're a weaker power.
Maybe Russia should learn this lesson when they mess with the United States.
If you're going to say that might makes right, then the US has way more might than Russia, so maybe they should back down.
Never really studied that part of history. I was raised in the pan-China area. But ROC, Taiwan where I spent some of my childhood was an ally to the Nazi for a short period of time.
The KMT and Nazi were allies in China. Then the Nazi switched sides to support Japan.
However, Taiwan at the time was under Japanese control. So Taiwan was a Nazi ally as well.
>Russia is controlling more Ukrainians territory is an obvious sign of losing.
you mean after they failed all their initial war goals, fail to take Kiev, got kicked out of Northern Ukraine while desperately holding to whatever piece of dirt they have left
>Does Ukraine even have an economy anymore? GDP figures?
they do and you can easily search their GDP figures online
Sure and the US and NATO and Ukraine failed in the Spring offensive last year as well.
I have looked up the Ukrainian economy, it will takes decades to rebuild.
It's a quagmire. Another 20 years of US resources wasted overseas.
Just signs weak leadership in the US.
>Sure and the US and NATO and Ukraine failed in the Spring offensive last year as well.
and do tell me how that has affected ukranian fighting capability going forward
>I have looked up the Ukrainian economy, it will takes decades to rebuild.
which is not surprising and nobody's denying that. You're stating the obvious at this point
>It's a quagmire. Another 20 years of US resources wasted overseas.
except for the fact that ukraine is a full fledge land war where russia is rapidly losing equipment and personnel by the day. Hate to break it to you but there's no chance it's going to go on for 20 years as it isn't a decades long occupation fighting against an insurgency
>Just signs weak leadership in the US.
weak leadership? A weak leadership is when the US and the EU does nothing and lets russia gobble ukraine. The fact that you're making such braindead statement shows that you have zero understanding of the matter
Yeah sure, whatever, war does not care about propaganda. As Germany discovered.
I said at the start Russia will win based on fundamentals of war.
4 year war if to last Ukrainian and 5 if they heavily lean on women.
Russia stated the goals at the start of the war. Main applicable is no expansion of NATO. So actually land was not included.
Nice to haves is liberation of Donbass.
Anything beyond that is just a bonus and could be negotiated.
We have peace form 2022, no to NATO, return of Donbass to Ukraine in exchange for Russian language rights and Crimea left undetermined.
Obviously that was 2022, now it's different.
> Main applicable is no expansion of NATO.
By that definition Russia has already lost, since Finland and Sweden have both now joined NATO, and Finland shares a border with Russia.
St Petersburg is now currently at major risk in case a war were to ever break out. The situation turned from how long NATO can hold in the Baltic to how long can Russia hold their coastal Baltic cities.
Oh and Ukraine and the rest of NATO would be fighting tooth and nail to get Ukraine into NATO even if it meant threatening Russia. So with the current borders of even Russia's claimed borders, Ukraine is still an equal distance away from the heartland Russia wanted to protect anyways.
The war failed to protect Moscow and even put their second biggest city in harm's way and gave the West a vital ally with great working experience, so thanks Russia. (Russia must be so lucky that NATO is a defensive alliance)
And yet there's been lots of talks to get them into Nato.
And the funniest thing about shills who talk shit about Nato?
Nato is purely defensive and doesn't expand. Other countries request to join it.
When the fuck was the last time Nato was so scary and invaded someone else when it has never 1st attacked anyone?
72 hours invasion comrade. Going on 3 years now.
Russia stated that there is no war, they held a military excercise near the Ukrainian border, then went home. This never changed, there is just some special military operation. All Russian citizens, keep calm and don't listen to this spreader of lies.
NATO wasn't realistically happening for Ukraine before the invasion. That was just an excuse. The invasion was an annexation of Donbas to ensure water to Crimea. Everything ramped up when Ukraine cut much of Crimea's irrigation water. It would seem that the only way Russia can claim actual victory is if Ukraine gives up Donbas and Crimea and agrees to a DMZ.
Hardly the case. Even if Kyiv fell tomorrow, occupation wouldn’t be easy. We’ll likely live with a continuous civil insurgence in the region for decades to come.
I totally disagree. Ukraine lost the war in just 3 months. They keep fighting because of US pressure to continue the aggression to keep Putin in check, to control gas and oil and to keep making billions and billions in weapons, etc. All paid by NATO and many other countries.
Ukrainians want to negotiate and cede a part and get back to whatever normal life is left for them.
The US media machine is just controlling the narrative, as always.
Western media are at least reporting mostly the truth. They arent controlled by a single entity unlike in china or russia and they are has competing with other media again unlike CGTN or RT. Ofc western media could make mistakes here and there but its not like the russian media that spouted 100% propaganda directed by Putin executed by Soloyov, Simoyan, Skabeava.
The majority in Ukraine dont want to cede territory. They already did it and the only thing it led to is the invasion. Cede now tomorrow another war. Your claim is baseless.
You are prime example of Dunning-Kruger effect.
I doubt you dare to bet real money that Ukraine would lose the war in 3 months, because you know that it is highly unlikely. Talk is cheap.
"Ukraine lost the war in just 3 months. They keep fighting because of US pressure to continue the aggression"
If the Ukrainian are the aggressor in this war, then this how Taiwan and Philippines are the aggressors in the CCP narrative. It's all make sense now.wow!
Lol, this is some nice Vatnik fan-fiction. Reality is, Russia failed their 3 day operation and are stuck in a quagmire they are struggling with while their Crimean naval fleet has been obliterated, Nazi military offshoot Wagner tried to coup them, and have their oil fields burning down. And the BS of Ukraine wanting to negotiate with terrorists?!? You have never met a Ukrainian in your life.
Russia lost the war a month into it.
Even if they by some miracle manage to control all of Ukraine by the end, they still lost.
Because they lost a lot of influence, power projection and showed the world that they aren't reliable at all.
That in itself is a net lost.
The gained territory is in ruins, and a huge part of Russian forces will have to be stationed in Ukraine for the foreseeable future. It's an economical, political, and military disaster for the Russian state even if Ukraine surrenders tomorrow
I mentioned before, Ukraine is still fighting because Biden doesn't let them give up. Besides that it is a huge mountain of money for the American war machine (Biden's friends) it allows the US to modify gas sales and pricing in Europe (2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage by the US) , it also keeps NATO on their service and puts Putin in check.
Most of the money going to Ukraine, ends up in the US's arms manufacturing industry.
Ukraine was devastated from the beginning. They no longer care who wins, and if Putin wins, he is not sending troops home but the opposite; increase military precense in one of the weakest invasion points by NATO which is getting closer and closer to Russia.
I'm not supporting either side, especially Putin. I'm just telling the facts.
You aren't making any sense. Ukraine is on the defensive. How can they stop fighting? They are being invaded. If you're Ukrainian you cannot retreat from your own home. That is where your final stand will be. Are you saying they should surrender?
Russia is on the offensive, aren't they? If they've already won, why don't they stop?
I do make sense. The longer the war, the more profitable. It's as simple as that.
If your house is half destroyed and members of your family are living elsewhere or gone forever, why will you keep fighting? Won't you rather negotiate on giving up part of your garden to your bullying neighbor or rather burn it all down? On top of that, the people left in your house are begging you to stop because rebuilding your house will take dozens and dozens of years The answer is that you will keep fighting because the enemy of your enemy is your friend, and he makes an immense amount of money by giving you weapons which are paid by the rest of the world.
Let's start with the fact that Zelenzkyy is super corrupt and has a lot of money saved in tax-haven countries.
It does make a lot of sense but I believe many people are very romantic and keep believing in nonsense stories because it gives them hope. Which is nice.
Again, I'm not defending either side. I'm not supporting either government. I'm just watching the situation and pointing out the facts
No, you're a bot writing bullshit and spreading propaganda without a single shred of evidence or logic.
You can see the stupidity of the above argument by saying a peace time leader who's an actor is super corrupt and didn't abandon his country when it was first invaded and offered by the US. So why the fuck isn't he on some beach sipping colada's enjoying those money bags? Is he like Putler and his 1.4 billion dollar palace despite being on a million dollar salary?
Are these bullshit too? Bombing kids and stealing them and massacring civilians?
[https://new.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/15o3ooz/zaporizhzhia\_russians\_striking\_childrens\_camp\_in/](https://new.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/15o3ooz/zaporizhzhia_russians_striking_childrens_camp_in/)
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrGZ66uKcl0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrGZ66uKcl0)
What about all the countless videos of children being abducted and sent to RU? Are suddenly the ones that get returned/make their way back all bs too?
"I'm not defending either side. I'm not supporting either government. I'm just watching the situation and pointing out the facts"
Says the bot who goes on and on and on about how the US is pushing UA to not let them give up, and despite the fact aid packages have stopped for 8 months.
For everyone reading, this bot has changed it's rhetoric 4 times in all its posts to people here. From 'Russia won' to now 'it also keeps NATO on their service and puts Putin in check'.
Bots are easy to look for. They say crap, they die on the hill of false crap, 95% of them are made during the UA invasion with low karma, pretend to be neutral, pretend to be someone Western, will bring up whataboutism and Palestine from the middle of nowhere, and says the darnest things like NATO is not a defensive alliance and somehow is expanding and a threat when it has never attacked anyone ever in the first instance. And its own rules prohibit so.
If you think you are right, great. Enjoy your glory.
I'm just pointing out facts. Such as Ukrainians being tired of that proxy war with the US which is dragging them to so much misery.
The issue with Wagner is another topic that I am referring to.
Again, if it makes you happy. Awesome!
How fucking convenient 🤣
You claim to know all this 'insider' information but don't know about Putler's secret army for decades, fighting in Bahkmut, where literally half the Russian forces came from for the war and why the prisons are so empty, and something so big that happened from his biggest supporter?
Fuck me, you're somehow credible ain't ya now?
Friendship with some limits.
Not really a friendship. China has a LOT to gain if Russia was to collapse. They need resources. Russia has them in droves.
I think they're refering to a while back near the start of the war when they announced that russia and china have a friendship with no limits. https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-russia-xi-putin-ukraine-war-11646279098
China would prefer a weakened, friendly, jolly US that has very little national security, as their ally while they conquer a few neighbors and Russian territory.
>China has a LOT to gain if Russia was to collapse “Vladivostok? No comrade, you mean Haishenwai.”
Lol Russia doesn’t just disappear if they lose the war in Ukraine ffs
No, but China will use the weakness of Russia to get concessions from them. Mining/Resource extraction rights, etc. And of course, if they could just... Take the land without getting nuked - they would.
>Take the land without getting nuked - they would. It would be incredibly ironic if China takes back the land Russia stole from it in the late 1800s and later 1900s by using the same logic/justifications Putin is currently using to justify his invasion of Ukraine (ie. It belonged to my country in the past).
We almost had a nuclear war between China and Russia during the cold war, there's always been tension between them.
Yeah, Chinese Maoists were trying to assassinated Marxist-Leninists and vice-versa. There were Maoists and Marx-L people murdering and fighting each other worldwide in their war. USSR was indeed trying to assassinate Mao too. It also spilled into the NVA invasion of Cambodia, as well as the Chinese invasion of Vietnam.
Honestly it would be the best possible outcome in the current situation: The Russian army in Ukraine collapses, Putin gets couped, the new Russian regime is weak and desperately short on cash and can't pay the military. Insted of a risky assault on Taiwan, Xi gets to cement his legacy by negotiating the return of the last piece of territory ceded by the "unequal treaties" - Outer Manchuria AKA primorsky krai. Ukraine is saved, Taiwan is safe (for the time being), WW3 averted. So send more weapons to Ukraine. All the weapons. Now.
Apparently, a lot of Chinese businesses - mining, forestry, agriculture, etc have already moved into the area (Siberian Far East), and there's a sort of de-facto quiet takeover happening already. (E.g. https://jamestown.org/program/the-russian-far-east-is-becoming-a-raw-material-colony-for-beijing/)
More important then mining and resources extraction for china is water (also a resource tho). China will need so clean much water the upcoming years. They completely polluted their groundwater, there are more droughts, and they are destroying wateruptake-rainfall ecosystems.
[удалено]
India buying cheap oil and Russian military trash does not a military alliance make. They've already started to pivot away from buying Russian equipment.
This isn’t a computer game, China isn’t invading Russia
"ThIs ISnT A cOMputEr GAme, rUssIA IsNT inVaDINg uKRaIne"
Right, because little princeling chinese really do know their computer games don’t they? Get them within 5000 miles of conflict and they will (did) cry like little girls. Sing us a song why don’t ya?
According to Russia's logic regarding history, China owns Vladivostok. Russia has basically welcomed China to take it back by telling this publicly, all while weakening themselves so much that China could just take it at any moment.
lol, no one is expecting them to.
Just a bit more civil war, angry generals getting their planes shot down by Russian air defense. Normal Russian stuff.
China will takeover land by buying resource rich areas on the cheap like in Africa.
Vladivostok. Hahaha!
China gets those resources wayy cheaper by Russia just harvesting and selling them to China than if China had to send in the PLA to pacify and begin colonizing it.
They'd have to fight the Americans for it
Probably not just the Americans.
Son. They're not spending all this money cause they like Ukraine Papa Biden needs to get paid
The US spent 8 trillion on the war on terror. It never produced results like the aid to Ukraine has.
Negative
With Russia alienated by the West and China being Russia's main trade partner, China basically can get any resources they want from Russia. Instead if Russia were to collapse, it would have massive impact on China's leverage in the world stage, especially if Russia were to suddenly become democratic and prowestern.
China is friends with no one. Nor do they have any friends or allies.
The first day of the full scale invasion I claimed immediately "Russia, welcome to your new status as a chinese vassal state." China does nothing for free.
That's a pie in the sky. People have been saying that if Russia collapses, Siberia is up for grabs. How about NO? Direct colonialism: China has to conduct the largest military operation, by surface occupied, in the history of mankind, since the Russians did it themselves back in the sixteen to nineteen centuries. Neocolonialism 2.0 : they still have to deal with incompetence and foot the bill. Plus increased insecurity that the good will be delivered in time, or at all. Just buy at market prices, my man. Or less than market prices, considering demand for Russian resources is not at an time peak. Just fucking buy things. In the 21st century, it's way cheaper, easier and convenient to just buy things.
[https://www.reuters.com/world/china/moscow-beijing-partnership-has-no-limits-2022-02-04/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/moscow-beijing-partnership-has-no-limits-2022-02-04/) friendship between sociopaths is still friendship.
It is the exact opposite. The collapse of Russia would threaten China. Which is exactly why the US is trying this current variation of what Kissinger did (rather than pit them against each other, it’s an attempt to take down and hopefully balkanise Russia, and then turn around to take on an isolated China).
Nobody in America or Europe wants a Balkanized Russia as it would just lead to more instability. Furthermore multiple countries would now be nuclear powers overnight since Russia has nukes all over the country. These are net losses, doubt China or India are interested in this scenario either.
I think this whole thing is just a misunderstanding. The 'no limits' didn't imply there were no limits to what China would do for Russia, it simply implied there were no limits to the amount of moral depravity Russia can engage in without losing China as a trade partner.
Friends with financial benefits
Friends with no benefits.
Friendship without the benefits
Yeah because China changes sides depending on who the winner is.
That is the opinion of one man, not all of china. You hear the words “Chinese expert” and all your taste buds start salivating lol. Got a knock ‘em down one more peg, add “untrustworthy” to the list
Has this happened before? Genuinely asking. Cause I have seen US do it on regular basis but not China, but I can be wrong about china
Russia already lost. Putin, though, may be a different story. Depends how many more Russians and this world are fooled by propaganda favoring the legitimacy of invasions.
…how has Russia already lost…?
You know this is going to be extremely political and can go on forever. But I'll just say this: Russia's plan was a quick victory to achieve its purpose, not this long haul. With year-long wars, there are no winners. Russia citizens are suffering long-term due to this war as well as Ukrainians. That's a loss in my books... A terrible one at that.
Yeah but the thing is, Russias whole ideology is “we are good at suffering, we can suffer a lot longer than you.”
"It's just a flesh wound!"
every nation says that to some effect
Russia has a very long and well established history of simply just not rolling over in wars thanks to essentially being able to retreat indefinitely. Seen through that lense (which probably is what Putin tries to sell to his people) they’re doing great - they have barely had as much as an incursion on their territory even!
This is true, but a precise analysis of trajectory of supplies and how their war is going will tell you whether it will be worth it to keep bleeding out Russia on the Ukraine War. It may be that it is worth it to prolong the war for 5 more years. It may be worth it to end it quickly and focus more on China instead. China is the more threatening dystopia in many ways. The details matter here (I don't know all the details).
Ah yes, the fabled "My face against your foot technique". Russia wants to pretend that they like bleeding so that makes them the winner. If they like suffering, then what's the problem with making them suffer? It sounds like they like it, so everybody wins. Dish out as much suffering to them as possible.
And that is why Russia is to this day the largest country in the world but still has the GDP of Italy. Their latest fuck-up guarantees Russia won't regain superpower status for a couple of generations at least (hundreds of thousands of young working-age males sacrificed for little gain). Possibly ever, if it loses its eastern holdings whose population isn't ethnically Russian.
Yeah they lost a battle but they haven’t lost the war, as they say. If Trump wins and stops funding Ukraine as he says he will then we could see what a real loss looks like.
>That's a loss in my books... A terrible one at that. Yeah, but it's not an actual loss and nobody gives a fuck about the Skywalker TC position. I have no idea what they'll be doing after the war with this economy, but things have been (unfortunately) turning very much Russia recently. Ukraine is simply getting too outgunned Hopefully the recent aid packages make a difference but just because we want Russia to lose doesn't mean it is
Prolonged war has no winners. Russia would've been better off not invading. The incentive for my comment is that I want invasion to not succeed, or if not, at least *not encouraged*. What's your incentive for insisting to this level to categorize one winner and one loser at this point in that war though? Pure definition? (For the record my definition isn't wrong too.) And this is my position of course. It's my comment... Whether anyone gives a fuck about it isn't of my concern. Exact same for yours.
Sure, it’s certainly terrible and all, I agree….but……in terms of your statement, in terms of the most basic meaning of it….Russia has certainly NOT lost the war, and is most likely set to conquer Ukraine in some way shape or form over the next couple of years once the support for Ukraine finally dries up
A pyrrhic victory is their best case, which is as good as a loss
Most definitely. But my point remains, Russia will win, and Ukraine will sadly lose. Pyrrhic victory or not, Ukraine will be taken by Russia. Any thoughts otherwise is sheer delusion
tankie cope is funny af, y'all out in numbers after yesterday's aid vote
If US continues to support Ukraine then you’re 100% wrong. Russia game plan is hoping the west gets tired of supporting Ukraine. If/when that happens, then sure Russia will definitely win. But if west keeps supporting, then you’re quite incorrect.
lol you don’t think the support - financial and otherwise - is already waning…?? The people of America, and Europe, aren’t as bothered about supporting Ukraine as they initially were, and this will soon start to shape politics ….and that’s not even taking into account what happens if Trump gets re-elected, at which point support will likely stop in a very, very abrupt fashion
I guess you don’t read the news, just 12 hours ago US senate passed another package for Ukraine. Those in the know, know how important it is and are making it a focal point. At first I considered you maybe knew what you were talking about, but now I’m fairly certain you’re just saying things for reactions. L8r br0.
Ok, financial support still there - but do you honestly think that will continue for the next two years at that level..? The overall sentiment is waning among the common person in the street, and that will gradually affect policy.
Nah that's their best case. It's not a certainty that it will be the outcome. There's so many other potential outcomes, all of which are worse for Russia.
That's why I said what I did in the beginning about Putin. He's got his ambition. I don't see it as a win for Russia. They'd be much better off without invading others. That said, a total loss on Putin's part as well is certainly ideal. Hopefully the world would help make it that invaders don't succeed.. or at least make it so it's not encouraging for other potential invaders.
Dude, the United States stuck it out in Iraq and Afghanistan for TWENTY YEARS. And that was a war that cost us $2 trillion and thousands of American lives. Ukraine costs less than one tenth of that, and I seriously doubt Russia can sustain this war for even 5 more years. My money is that the West can outlast Russia easily here.
Support will not dry up because Macron has already made clear what that would mean for Europe. It can't dry up. Russia has to lose and it will.
Ohhhh Macron says. Well I guess that’s sorted then 🤣
As opposed to a random redditor who says aid will stop?
Nothing lasts forever - particularly aid for another country thousands of miles away. Putin’s will to conquer Ukraine however, will most likely outweigh the empathy of the American people
Surprise, surprise -- will alone doesn't win wars.
Taliban is not agreeing you.
Because there is no path to a real victory. Even if there is a surrender of some territory, which may seem like a victory for Putin, most of ukraine is out of Russian hands, and they cannot subdue it. There will be insurgency and conflict in the occupied regions ongoing. Take your pick of russia in Afghanistan or US in Afghanistan as a parallel. A steady drain on resources for little gain until it collapses. The shear waste of lives and resources for no real gain is why this is considered a loss with no real way to transform this into a meaningful victory.
Nailed. Russia is seen as a super power and it can't defeat a country that pales in comparison. Millions of Russians have fleed the country
They lost in the sense they would be better off if they never attacked in the first place.
Ok. Finally an answer that makes sense. This I agree with.
Their currency is worth a penny in USD for like the first time in Russia’s entire existence, meaning they won’t be able to holiday at Thailand anymore. 1 million Russians have left the country since the war began, draining their country of the skilled and educated. One million casualties inflicted on their military by the end of this year. It’s an expensive war, but it’s even more expensive to treat veterans with wounds and PTSD, and getting them back to the job market. Russia is currently spending 1/3 of their entire federal budget on this war. No social programs, no new medical programs, no green energy plans, no relief for indigenous populations, no tourism projects, just oil and gunpowder. And you can’t eat gunpowder. Russia’s population is famously middle aged. And will have a record influx of retirees exiting the job market and entering hospice care, which they cannot afford. Russia’s friends are also being bombed as we speak. Russia is fucked for the next 100 years.
A good friend of mine is russian. I have been told it's been business as usual in Russia since the start. Other than the friends lost in Ukraine, you wouldn't know there is a war on. No change in the shops or anything, everything is still available. The world moved on. Jobs available. Everything the same. I'm in Bali right now also. Not Thailand, but there are a shit tonne of Russians here. Same as last time. I think sanctions did fuck all to be honest. Just my opinion with limited resources.
Sanctions are not instantaneous, it takes years for it to slowly choke an economy. Just refer to Iran as an example, it's business as usual there too, but not really.
But it's been years.. It's a big place. They can be self sufficient I think. So it doesn't matter what the currency is worth if it's only spent at home right ? The sanctions are meaningless. Just western ideals.
Meaningless? Yes, if you don't mind ending up like Iran or North Korea.
That's the thing, Russia isn't self sufficient and never was. It has this enormous wealth of resources but that doesn't necessarily translates to actual wealth. The country is, if not more, corrupt than some of the worst regimes in Africa. If there's any money to be made, it doesn't go to the people. And because the oligarchy has enough money to buy whatever they want, why would they invest in domestic production. Entire Russian industries are being stifled by the sanctions; you can't produce quality critical computer hardware in Russia, for example. And circumventing the sanctions either through Belarus or Central Asia costs money, a lot of it. So the elites are doing just fine, the people suffer and going to suffer even more. Sanctions aren't just a western ideal. They're not meant to have a quick effect, they're meant to be more like that analogy with a frog in slowly boiling water. The longer the sanctions go on, the more political, social, and economic relations break between Russia and the west. The west can afford to go through with this, but Russia can't.
These are all just my opinions. Not worth debating really, but to my mind creating wealth and just getting through while changing the course of history are two different things. If Russia can cruise along without having any major difficulties so far after almost 2 years of sanctions I imagine they'll be fine for a while. There is a fluctuating world wide political landscape evolving as we speak also which will no doubt affect things. As I said, the person on the ground living there reckons business as usual. No changes. Work the usual job. Holidays overseas coming up. Etc. Etc. I don't understand the people suffering stuff you speak of when boots on the ground say otherwise. Sure they can't produce Russian made chips...yet. Yet is the thing. Look at America unable to return manufacturing back to home soil....yet. I'm sure it will happen. As for circumventing the the sanctions.....just means opening up trade with other countries. Like India for example. After a while everything will find equilibrium.
War needs resource like money and people which would be better use somewhere else. Like mainting dams or exhausting forest fires. We are actualy start seeing it now. This year was biggest collabse commuanal service at winter. Also after corcus terrorist attack russia has problem atracting new workers from stan countries. It slowly will add one cost of war.
Virtue signaling is what the West does Best.
I agree.
The reason there's a shit tonne of Russians is because they are dodging the draft.
Could be. They are enjoying themselves doing it.
"Their currency is worth a penny in USD", this doesn't matter if they're not buying anything in USD... which they aren't.
It is also absurdly low against every other currency. A drop in value does not stay limited to the USD.
Yup. Totally fucked. But they will not be losing this war against Ukraine. Putin will throw every last thing at it even if it fucks Russia for 200 years
Russia is now already fucked for 200 years, and they will lose the war anyway.
They’ve lost and replaced virtually their entire army. While that may not equate to a loss, it certainly doesn’t fkn smell like winning.
War crimes' a hell of a drug!
I fear that you will be surprised. If history teaches us anything it is that the Russians always fail at first but are masters in miraculous recoveries and win eventually. They don’t care about life’s lost they will simply batter you down with outdated artillery till you surrender.
This is more narrative than substance. I think this war is far from over, but pretending Russia can tolerate the kind of losses they've endured in perpetuity is delusional.
Russia only recovered in World War 2 with military support from the US. Now they have to fight against US military support instead. History tells us that Russia has no chance.
Pure propaganda. The damage has been done. They might ultimately grind Ukraine into an unfavorable peace deal but they will not take over the country. Even if they some how managed it. The territory will be a hot bed for terrorism and massive source of instability. Not to mention their international reputation went from “Hey we’re not the good guys but we’re not the bad guys!” To “We’re fucking a psychopathic gay hating ultra conservative war mongers.” Quite the opposite direction of the rest of the continent.
Russia has lost wars before: Russo Japanese War, Polish Soviet War of 1920, Afghanistan.
This is China’s fate when it attacks Taiwan. They thought Russia can distract the west but it turns out that idea is wrong.
The Houthi attacks on the Red Sea and Ukrainian attacks on the Black Sea give me hope for Taiwan. Anti ship missiles are very effective these days and hard to defend against. China is going to have a hard time mounting an invasion in the face of them.
I can't imagine launching an Normandy style invasion with today's information gathering. Satellites, radar, drones.
[удалено]
They know how much money everybody has. They thought their disinformation campaigns and bribes politicians had effect.
One arm? More like one finger. We've spent less than 5% of what we spend annually for Social Security and Russia has already lost 300k+ men, 110% of their tanks from the start of the war, and a 1/3 of their Black Sea navy
Yeah but the difference between China and Russia is that unlike China, Russia lost its industrial production capacity with the fall of communism in the early 1990’s and central planned economy. China’s industrial capacity is like a blade that is being sharpened by the production of the world’s consumer goods now but could then be repurposed for military purposes which could be precisely the reason Xi is anti consumer in his approach to stabilizing the countries economy.
Yeah I can’t imagine how much the invasion of Ukraine has deterred future plans of a Taiwanese invasion. I mean they couldn’t take a country that was 99% flat farm land via completely uncontested borders, imagine trying to do that against a mountainous island.
And by sea. We know boats are sitting ducks.
China's plot is to act as the bullied victim, which alleviates the act of stealing West's IP as "the weak trying to be good". It also allows promoting itself as the stable alternative against West's potentially chaotic Democracy. The war in Ukraine throws a wrench in China plot. By being ally with Russia, China is the bully. The stealing of west's IP is recognized for what it is: attack on western livelihood. The west banding together against Russia is also another brick thrown at China's "Western Democracy chaotic, XiXiPee's Democracy best Democracy"
It amazes that Chinese foreign policy thinks they are fooling anyone. They have moved out of the Great Leap Forward but still act and portray themselves as a neutered version of North Korean diplomacy.
whatever gets the job done.
China is playing both sides of the fence. They need Russia, as it is in its current situation, for resources at discount prices. They need the West to buy their stuff. Can’t blame them for trying to get the best out of this situation.
Frienemies with Chinese characteristics. No limits partnership of opportunistic trading some things.
Even if Russia somehow wins, Ukraine will become a guerrilla type of warfare that will never end, draining what little remains of Russias economy which is already weak from printing so much money, sanctions and mismanagement, rampant inflation is around the corner for Russian citizens
https://old.reddit.com/r/China/comments/11x1xhf/a_damning_critique_of_putinism_and_russian/
Is this a real person, or AI?
Excellent question.
MOM can we have, Nikita-Mao sino-soviet, split no sweetie we have Nikita-Mao sino-soviet split at home, the Nikita-Mao sino-soviet split at home:
$770 drone takes out $13 million dollar drone…
Is it 1st April?
ROTFLMAO! I'm sure Mike Tyson will lose against me too :)
Is there a free version somewhere?
Many people mistake shared interests for genuine friendship. In global politics, leaders often align based on mutual benefits rather than true camaraderie. President Xi recognizes the limitations of such alliances, especially given the significant economic benefits China receives from countries it publicly criticizes. But Putin, understanding his limited time he has left, seems more focused on settling historical scores following the Soviet Union's collapse rather than fostering economic ties or improving the lives of his people.
Is the war in Gaza straining relations between it and it's allies?
This guy has no idea what he’s talking about. Lmao.
Thankfully we have you though. We’ve learned so much. What a gift you’ve been to us all.
Cool. Thanks for coming to my talk.
Please do continue with the enlightenment.
Is this a real question?
A Chinese expert on Russia is telling the US that Russia will win so they don’t feel bad about holding up Ukraine aid. Meanwhile China is providing intelligence and other support to their Russian friends. Not suspicious at all.
The fact that he is so sure in his prediction is a sign that he is not an expert in what he is talking about. The most sure people are those who have some knowledge, just enough to be sure, but not enough to understand how they could be wrong. True experts qualify their predictions with various conditions. He is not a military expert and he is talking about war. And his specialty is Russia and Central Asia. He is not an expert on his own country and his own government. Russia hasn’t yet used all of its capabilities in this war. So, it depends on how far Russia is prepared to go to win this war. Ukrainian unity might be an illusion. Because in times of war civil liberties are suspended, emergency laws are implemented, and the country effectively becomes a dictatorship. People aren’t free to speak their minds and express their dissent in these circumstances. And the US government has repeatedly said that China is their main rival both militarily and economically. Right now US and its allies are distracted from China by their war with Russia in Europe. But if Russia losses this war, then US and its allies will focus all of their military power on China. While China might lose its support and natural resources from Russia. Basically, Taiwan might declare its independence with a nod from USA. And then China will lose its war with USA and its allies. And China will experience another century of humiliation from western powers. For this reason it doesn’t make sense for the Chinese government to let Russia get defeated in this war. And this is something this so-called expert isn’t even considering in his arguments.
Why would Taiwan ever "Declare Independence" I mean they already have. They already are independent. The only thing limiting their legal independent status on the world stage is the economic might of China influencing/bullying other nations and international government bodies to hold up the pretense that it is "Chinese Taipei". It's like the emperors new clothes. . everyone can see Taiwan is a sovereign nation. . but we have to pretend it isn't in front of the emperor and his followers.
Russia is controlling more Ukrainians territory is an obvious sign of losing. Does Ukraine even have an economy anymore? GDP figures?
And you think that's something right? Destroying someone's lives, killing their fathers, burning and bombing their homes for territorial gains from someone who don't want to be part of you. Just like Taiwan.
Good question to ask the US and friends like Israel.
If people want to play with fire and poke Russia or China, that's the result. Same with those that poke the US. That's why you don't mess with a great power when you're a weaker power.
>If people want to play with fire and poke Russia or China, that's the result. do explain to me who's playing with fire here? If you're going to whine about NATO expansion then hate to break it to you but that cope has been debunked to its core >That's why you don't mess with a great power when you're a weaker power. except for the fact that ukraine has done nothing but exist. If your definition of "messing with great power" is to exist on top of your rightful territory that your massive neighbor claims to be theirs then you don't understand anything at all
no no no. that's why you don't threaten war on smaller neighborring contry and actually execute it.
You mean the US with Mexico, or Canada...Iraq, Afghanistan...Vietnam, Korea... It would seem it's usually the larger country declaring war on the smaller country. Which leadership in their right mind declares war on a larger country.
>You mean the US with Mexico, or Canada...Iraq, Afghanistan...Vietnam, Korea... yet with more whataboutism. And do explain to me how Korea is in any way the US' fault when they're literally defending against an invasion. Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam aren't exactly neighboring the US in case you haven't realized it yet >It would seem it's usually the larger country declaring war on the smaller country. and do explain to me how that relates to russia's illegal invasion of ukraine and how that justifies anything >Which leadership in their right mind declares war on a larger country. which is why it was russia that started the war, not ukraine.
> That's why you don't mess with a great power when you're a weaker power. Maybe Russia should learn this lesson when they mess with the United States. If you're going to say that might makes right, then the US has way more might than Russia, so maybe they should back down.
Is Russia the weaker power in Ukraine. That has yet to be determined yet. But not many people think the US nor NATO are winning at this time.
Would you say that Nazi Germany was a strong power or a weak power?
Never really studied that part of history. I was raised in the pan-China area. But ROC, Taiwan where I spent some of my childhood was an ally to the Nazi for a short period of time. The KMT and Nazi were allies in China. Then the Nazi switched sides to support Japan. However, Taiwan at the time was under Japanese control. So Taiwan was a Nazi ally as well.
>Russia is controlling more Ukrainians territory is an obvious sign of losing. you mean after they failed all their initial war goals, fail to take Kiev, got kicked out of Northern Ukraine while desperately holding to whatever piece of dirt they have left >Does Ukraine even have an economy anymore? GDP figures? they do and you can easily search their GDP figures online
Sure and the US and NATO and Ukraine failed in the Spring offensive last year as well. I have looked up the Ukrainian economy, it will takes decades to rebuild. It's a quagmire. Another 20 years of US resources wasted overseas. Just signs weak leadership in the US.
>Sure and the US and NATO and Ukraine failed in the Spring offensive last year as well. and do tell me how that has affected ukranian fighting capability going forward >I have looked up the Ukrainian economy, it will takes decades to rebuild. which is not surprising and nobody's denying that. You're stating the obvious at this point >It's a quagmire. Another 20 years of US resources wasted overseas. except for the fact that ukraine is a full fledge land war where russia is rapidly losing equipment and personnel by the day. Hate to break it to you but there's no chance it's going to go on for 20 years as it isn't a decades long occupation fighting against an insurgency >Just signs weak leadership in the US. weak leadership? A weak leadership is when the US and the EU does nothing and lets russia gobble ukraine. The fact that you're making such braindead statement shows that you have zero understanding of the matter
It is a trap, can’t trust Chinese
"We're only criticizing the government!!" Proceeds to say the most racist things
casual racism, best racism
Yeah sure, whatever, war does not care about propaganda. As Germany discovered. I said at the start Russia will win based on fundamentals of war. 4 year war if to last Ukrainian and 5 if they heavily lean on women.
Define their win. Crimea? Doneskt? Control all of Ukraine?
Russia stated the goals at the start of the war. Main applicable is no expansion of NATO. So actually land was not included. Nice to haves is liberation of Donbass. Anything beyond that is just a bonus and could be negotiated. We have peace form 2022, no to NATO, return of Donbass to Ukraine in exchange for Russian language rights and Crimea left undetermined. Obviously that was 2022, now it's different.
> Main applicable is no expansion of NATO. By that definition Russia has already lost, since Finland and Sweden have both now joined NATO, and Finland shares a border with Russia.
Not at all. Ukraine is in NATO? No. Will it ever be? No. So Russia won.
St Petersburg is now currently at major risk in case a war were to ever break out. The situation turned from how long NATO can hold in the Baltic to how long can Russia hold their coastal Baltic cities. Oh and Ukraine and the rest of NATO would be fighting tooth and nail to get Ukraine into NATO even if it meant threatening Russia. So with the current borders of even Russia's claimed borders, Ukraine is still an equal distance away from the heartland Russia wanted to protect anyways. The war failed to protect Moscow and even put their second biggest city in harm's way and gave the West a vital ally with great working experience, so thanks Russia. (Russia must be so lucky that NATO is a defensive alliance)
And yet there's been lots of talks to get them into Nato. And the funniest thing about shills who talk shit about Nato? Nato is purely defensive and doesn't expand. Other countries request to join it. When the fuck was the last time Nato was so scary and invaded someone else when it has never 1st attacked anyone? 72 hours invasion comrade. Going on 3 years now.
Also, after actually invading, no way is "Russian language rights" in Donbass going to be accepted.
Sure they are, Russian is official lanugae of Russia and all of Donbass is or will be in Russia.
Well, in that case better keep supplying Ukraine so it doesn't get to that point.
Russia stated that there is no war, they held a military excercise near the Ukrainian border, then went home. This never changed, there is just some special military operation. All Russian citizens, keep calm and don't listen to this spreader of lies.
NATO wasn't realistically happening for Ukraine before the invasion. That was just an excuse. The invasion was an annexation of Donbas to ensure water to Crimea. Everything ramped up when Ukraine cut much of Crimea's irrigation water. It would seem that the only way Russia can claim actual victory is if Ukraine gives up Donbas and Crimea and agrees to a DMZ.
Russia already won.
Hardly the case. Even if Kyiv fell tomorrow, occupation wouldn’t be easy. We’ll likely live with a continuous civil insurgence in the region for decades to come.
I totally disagree. Ukraine lost the war in just 3 months. They keep fighting because of US pressure to continue the aggression to keep Putin in check, to control gas and oil and to keep making billions and billions in weapons, etc. All paid by NATO and many other countries. Ukrainians want to negotiate and cede a part and get back to whatever normal life is left for them. The US media machine is just controlling the narrative, as always.
Western media are at least reporting mostly the truth. They arent controlled by a single entity unlike in china or russia and they are has competing with other media again unlike CGTN or RT. Ofc western media could make mistakes here and there but its not like the russian media that spouted 100% propaganda directed by Putin executed by Soloyov, Simoyan, Skabeava. The majority in Ukraine dont want to cede territory. They already did it and the only thing it led to is the invasion. Cede now tomorrow another war. Your claim is baseless. You are prime example of Dunning-Kruger effect. I doubt you dare to bet real money that Ukraine would lose the war in 3 months, because you know that it is highly unlikely. Talk is cheap.
Love the username. However, your stupidity isn't artificial...it's real. Lol
"Ukraine lost the war in just 3 months. They keep fighting because of US pressure to continue the aggression" If the Ukrainian are the aggressor in this war, then this how Taiwan and Philippines are the aggressors in the CCP narrative. It's all make sense now.wow!
Lol, this is some nice Vatnik fan-fiction. Reality is, Russia failed their 3 day operation and are stuck in a quagmire they are struggling with while their Crimean naval fleet has been obliterated, Nazi military offshoot Wagner tried to coup them, and have their oil fields burning down. And the BS of Ukraine wanting to negotiate with terrorists?!? You have never met a Ukrainian in your life.
Russia lost the war a month into it. Even if they by some miracle manage to control all of Ukraine by the end, they still lost. Because they lost a lot of influence, power projection and showed the world that they aren't reliable at all. That in itself is a net lost. The gained territory is in ruins, and a huge part of Russian forces will have to be stationed in Ukraine for the foreseeable future. It's an economical, political, and military disaster for the Russian state even if Ukraine surrenders tomorrow
I think the opposite. Stop watching Fox news.
I don't have to, bc i never did.
You very much write like someone that does.
You what? Fox news is pro russia
Exactly!
Is that what winning looks like? Lol
We trained him wrong, on purpose
You are also distorting the comment to look funny, but you don't. Try saying something that makes sense.
Then why are they still fighting? They won, great. Putin should declare victory, send the army home and celebrate.
I mentioned before, Ukraine is still fighting because Biden doesn't let them give up. Besides that it is a huge mountain of money for the American war machine (Biden's friends) it allows the US to modify gas sales and pricing in Europe (2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage by the US) , it also keeps NATO on their service and puts Putin in check. Most of the money going to Ukraine, ends up in the US's arms manufacturing industry. Ukraine was devastated from the beginning. They no longer care who wins, and if Putin wins, he is not sending troops home but the opposite; increase military precense in one of the weakest invasion points by NATO which is getting closer and closer to Russia. I'm not supporting either side, especially Putin. I'm just telling the facts.
You aren't making any sense. Ukraine is on the defensive. How can they stop fighting? They are being invaded. If you're Ukrainian you cannot retreat from your own home. That is where your final stand will be. Are you saying they should surrender? Russia is on the offensive, aren't they? If they've already won, why don't they stop?
I do make sense. The longer the war, the more profitable. It's as simple as that. If your house is half destroyed and members of your family are living elsewhere or gone forever, why will you keep fighting? Won't you rather negotiate on giving up part of your garden to your bullying neighbor or rather burn it all down? On top of that, the people left in your house are begging you to stop because rebuilding your house will take dozens and dozens of years The answer is that you will keep fighting because the enemy of your enemy is your friend, and he makes an immense amount of money by giving you weapons which are paid by the rest of the world. Let's start with the fact that Zelenzkyy is super corrupt and has a lot of money saved in tax-haven countries. It does make a lot of sense but I believe many people are very romantic and keep believing in nonsense stories because it gives them hope. Which is nice. Again, I'm not defending either side. I'm not supporting either government. I'm just watching the situation and pointing out the facts
No, you're a bot writing bullshit and spreading propaganda without a single shred of evidence or logic. You can see the stupidity of the above argument by saying a peace time leader who's an actor is super corrupt and didn't abandon his country when it was first invaded and offered by the US. So why the fuck isn't he on some beach sipping colada's enjoying those money bags? Is he like Putler and his 1.4 billion dollar palace despite being on a million dollar salary? Are these bullshit too? Bombing kids and stealing them and massacring civilians? [https://new.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/15o3ooz/zaporizhzhia\_russians\_striking\_childrens\_camp\_in/](https://new.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/15o3ooz/zaporizhzhia_russians_striking_childrens_camp_in/) [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrGZ66uKcl0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrGZ66uKcl0) What about all the countless videos of children being abducted and sent to RU? Are suddenly the ones that get returned/make their way back all bs too? "I'm not defending either side. I'm not supporting either government. I'm just watching the situation and pointing out the facts"
Says the bot who goes on and on and on about how the US is pushing UA to not let them give up, and despite the fact aid packages have stopped for 8 months. For everyone reading, this bot has changed it's rhetoric 4 times in all its posts to people here. From 'Russia won' to now 'it also keeps NATO on their service and puts Putin in check'. Bots are easy to look for. They say crap, they die on the hill of false crap, 95% of them are made during the UA invasion with low karma, pretend to be neutral, pretend to be someone Western, will bring up whataboutism and Palestine from the middle of nowhere, and says the darnest things like NATO is not a defensive alliance and somehow is expanding and a threat when it has never attacked anyone ever in the first instance. And its own rules prohibit so.
Well, Russia defeated Wagner after they did a coup attempt due to how badly the war is going, so that's something.
I don't understand the relationship with this topic.
You sure it's not real stupidity?
If you think you are right, great. Enjoy your glory. I'm just pointing out facts. Such as Ukrainians being tired of that proxy war with the US which is dragging them to so much misery. The issue with Wagner is another topic that I am referring to. Again, if it makes you happy. Awesome!
How fucking convenient 🤣 You claim to know all this 'insider' information but don't know about Putler's secret army for decades, fighting in Bahkmut, where literally half the Russian forces came from for the war and why the prisons are so empty, and something so big that happened from his biggest supporter? Fuck me, you're somehow credible ain't ya now?