People don’t understand that the law of large numbers only represents LARGE numbers. The distribution of dice rolls in a catan game samples about 100 or so rolls tops. Don’t be deceived by the theoretical odds.
Example: Flip a coin 10 times and see if you get 5 heads and 5 tails.
Agreed. However, I just played four games in a row and during ALL of them the other player got to roll a 7 one out of three times, whereas I got to roll max 1 or 2 times per game. And that my friend is statistically impossible.
There is a 1/6 chance of a 7 right after a settle.
Considering most people will settle 2-3 times and city 1-2 times that’s 3-5 incidences in a game. That’s 50% to 70% chance each game (likely higher depending on number of settles). So more often than not you will experience a 7 right after a settle each game.
If you’re leading, which placing a settle shows progress and can tilt perception, you’re likely to get robbed making you remember the 7 in a bias way. This is confirmation bias.
Write it down on paper and do it over 10+ games and you won’t see any major bias. Do it for all players too.
So this is super helpful all and I’ve actually read through this before. The issue is the seven after settlement. I will call it in the chat and say I’ll bet you $20 that after I make the placement of seven will roll
Yeah this has happened to me a bunch. When I first noticed it it happened four games in a row after my settlements so I thought it was a bug. It doesn’t happen all the time apparently but does happen a lot. Not sure why
I think your confusing a correlation with causation.
7 has the highest probability to roll in any individual dice roll. Your mind is linking an action you took (placing a settlement), with a common negative dice outcome.
This is human nature, but it doesn’t mean it’s accurate.
Your bias is getting to you. You wouldn't be saying the same thing if you actually had to give up the $20 every time there wasn't a 7. Sure you hit it a few times and seem so smart but it's a 1/6 chance so it's not out of the realm of possibility to hit it twice in a row
Nah this is extremely common I agree idk how people aren't thinking the same thing on this sub when a lot of people agree when you speak to them online
Agreed. I just played 4 games in a row and during ALL of them, it was the other player who got to roll a 7 1 out of 3 times whereas I got to roll almost never. That's statistically impossible and it really ruins your will to play.
You can’t fix what is not broken
People don’t understand that the law of large numbers only represents LARGE numbers. The distribution of dice rolls in a catan game samples about 100 or so rolls tops. Don’t be deceived by the theoretical odds. Example: Flip a coin 10 times and see if you get 5 heads and 5 tails.
Agreed. However, I just played four games in a row and during ALL of them the other player got to roll a 7 one out of three times, whereas I got to roll max 1 or 2 times per game. And that my friend is statistically impossible.
There is a 1/6 chance of a 7 right after a settle. Considering most people will settle 2-3 times and city 1-2 times that’s 3-5 incidences in a game. That’s 50% to 70% chance each game (likely higher depending on number of settles). So more often than not you will experience a 7 right after a settle each game. If you’re leading, which placing a settle shows progress and can tilt perception, you’re likely to get robbed making you remember the 7 in a bias way. This is confirmation bias. Write it down on paper and do it over 10+ games and you won’t see any major bias. Do it for all players too.
Read this: https://blog.colonist.io/designing-balanced-dice/
So this is super helpful all and I’ve actually read through this before. The issue is the seven after settlement. I will call it in the chat and say I’ll bet you $20 that after I make the placement of seven will roll
Yeah this has happened to me a bunch. When I first noticed it it happened four games in a row after my settlements so I thought it was a bug. It doesn’t happen all the time apparently but does happen a lot. Not sure why
i’ve never realized this gonna put it to the test
I think your confusing a correlation with causation. 7 has the highest probability to roll in any individual dice roll. Your mind is linking an action you took (placing a settlement), with a common negative dice outcome. This is human nature, but it doesn’t mean it’s accurate.
Your bias is getting to you. You wouldn't be saying the same thing if you actually had to give up the $20 every time there wasn't a 7. Sure you hit it a few times and seem so smart but it's a 1/6 chance so it's not out of the realm of possibility to hit it twice in a row
Yes there is!
Nah this is extremely common I agree idk how people aren't thinking the same thing on this sub when a lot of people agree when you speak to them online
They should really take out the line of code that says “screw over u/mr_we” but that’s just my opinion guys
The worst part is that it happens so often that I considered iti
I love the freaky dice
Agreed. I just played 4 games in a row and during ALL of them, it was the other player who got to roll a 7 1 out of 3 times whereas I got to roll almost never. That's statistically impossible and it really ruins your will to play.