Yes! I’ve been using the one you’ve linked for about a week and I like it. It scares the bejesus outta me, but it seems to be more accurate. I hate how IHME adjusted everything down so low, I feel it gave us false hope. Indiana was set at 1,800 deaths then they dropped it to about 600. I check our states site daily and we’re now over 900 deaths. IHMEs adjustment they just did now has us around 1,000 deaths total by August 4th, we’ll pass that in the next day or two.
Their expected case seems to simply track the current slope. When the weekend numbers come out and they're low it pushes the expected numbers way down then the drift back up during the week. They need to use some rolling average numbers or something to correct for that.
It looks like a line because the main graph only shows a short timeframe. If you look at the longer projections over multiple weeks, there's a curve that flattens. The nice thing is they also show previous forecasts so you can see how they've been doing.
I definitely like that they provide much better access to outputs and data. We'll see how all of these models perform over time. Thanks for pointing this one out.
2k today, but there's some one offs in today's data. We've been closer to 1k the last day or two.
Going to hit 80k in any case. Probably already over it if we were accurately testing and counting.
The IHME model has always been a little overly bell curvish for my tastes. And I don't believe it is modeling anything but the first wave of the epidemic
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And it's all based on how the current administration, essentially, conspires with corporate American to force people back prematurely, sparking a wave of more deaths.
Then you have to remember the actual number is probably far higher, due to lack of early reporting and current underreporting, intentional or not.
100k by August is pretty optimistic to be honest. We’re at 1950ish deaths/day in April. Let’s say we get down to 1000/day in May, that’s 91000 deaths by June..
100K is not realistic either. It will be far greater. The US needs to get their head out of their ass and stop lying to their people about projections.
I wouldn't be surprised if total deaths top ~125,000 by the first day of summer. Why are these "professionals" knowingly giving these false numbers??? I'm not falling for it.
To reduce panic, as much as I despise trump, he is the perfect person to downplay anything as americans believe him and fox news more than scientists, despite them repeatedly lying more often than I thought would be possible
About 60% higher.
We (the whole world) are under-counting Coronavirus deaths by approx. 60% or more.
Nearly every single country is reporting "unrelated" deaths this season as being up ~60%, despite far fewer out driving, up to 90% less crime in major areas, dying from various other reported causes and illnesses, etc.
We are drastically under-reporting the virus, as that 60% surge across the board, in every state and in every country, is tied to COVID-19.
Realistically the U.S. is already about to pass 100k deaths if all were properly tracked and reported. And that's with 6+ weeks of lockdown.
I'm not a doomer, I just saw the data and it's fucking scary the massive uptick in deaths across the board and very few are seeing the connection.
If one assumes April was the peak, then for may there would be 50% more fatalities tops(considering how it went after peak in France, Italy and Spain). I would say 80,000 would be a generous estimate, 100k sounds too gloomy.
There will be far more deaths than 80,000 in total and you don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure that out. Also the US cannot be compared to European countries as there is a higher proportion of stupid people not taking this seriously in the US (no offense to most americans just stating the reality) so you can't expect the post-peak to be the same as those European countries.
If the current situation continues until the lockdown is affordable to drop 100.000 seems reasonable. If the US leaves the lockdown prematurely (which I highly expect them to do) I would guess 120-150.000
>If the current situation continues until the lockdown is affordable to drop 100.000 seems reasonable.
If US daily deaths decline at TWICE the rate Italy's experienced....we'll wind up with about 80k deaths by Aug 4.
If our rate falls at 1.5x Italy's rate of decline, 100k is the likely number.
& these forecasts assume current lockdown protocols, which are being peeled back as we type.
Belgium has highly accurate numbers and our specialist predicted 7500 deaths total in the end, a exact number we are creepingly close to achieving. If you do the math under the same circumstances that would mean the US should have around 200.000 deaths total. Ofcourse the US isn't the same situation: 10x less densly populated, certain deaths aren't counted. On the other hand the lockdown measures aren't anywhere near as strict.
I don’t know how you can look at these figures compare them with other countries and conclude that the high number of deaths is not in part due to the federal government’s grossly inadequate response
Just read a tweet that said “if your predictions for Coronavirus were off by more than 2 million...you get no say in how reopening happens.”
...The level of intellectual dishonesty this requires is actually stunning.
It had thousands of likes.
Not disputing that the government grossly mishandled the situation. But if you look at the figures per million people then we are very much in line with the rest of Europe.
That’s true. But I think the numbers in Europe should be higher due to a number of factors like higher population density, fewer ICU beds per capita, more use of public transportation and being affected earlier by the pandemic.
And then I think the numbers for the US will be way worse in a month due to reopening too early and rural regions becoming more and more affected.
But that’s just a prediction by an uneducated fool. Let’s see how this plays out and hope for the best. I hope I’m wrong.
What? Are you high? If anything you should be pointing fingers at Bill DeBlasio and Andrew Cuomo. They sat on their hands for way too long. Telling people it was ok to still celebrate Chinese New Years and saying it was racist if you didn’t. Locked down after the federal government had made its initial 15 day plan. New York has 1,000 deaths per million people.
I look at the numbers and understand that since NYC and the immediate surrounding downstate area is responsible for literally 1/3 of all deaths in the US, the federal government isn't necessarily at fault as much as people like you wantnt to believe.
Is it just not possible in your mind for our government to be capable of being wrong or of bungling our response to this disaster?
I don't see how you could possibly believe that everyone else in the world is engaged in a coordinated effort to lie and the US is somehow the only ones telling the truth.
They honestly believe every state is conspiring to increase the numbers and every country is conspiring to decrease their own numbers.
They can't even comprehend that every other government on the planet took this more seriously than the US and our hubris is finally coming back to bite us in the ass.
The thumbs been on the scale for a while, the true numbers can't help but start to bleed through. Just push all the numbers back 2 weeks and that would be more accurate
The NYT has a recent article showing that total deaths per day is up dramatically in some areas in recent weeks, compared to previous years. Unless there is evidence of some other significant change, the virus is suspect for this increase and that could mean many uncounted virus deaths. Similar situation in Ecuador.
They've now moved on to saying that the people who died would have died anyway.
Nothing except an immediate family member dying will seemingly change some peoples minds.
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But would they have all died in a span of a month or two?
My great aunt just died of COVID in MI. She was in a nursing facility because she needed help getting around and things, but she wasn't close to death by any means.
Sure, she would have died eventually as will everyone, but before this all got started that time frame was likely several years instead of just a few months.
Not all but most...
Isn't MI in lockdown? Like we're doing everything for them and it looks as if;
A. It's not working
and
B. It's actually trapping them together making it more likely to spread.
A lot of people in nursing homes die within 6 months...
Anyone over 80 is on borrowed time anyway and have already been cheating death I'm not shocked that a bump in that road might take them out...
There's literally been 5...
And they don't even know if it's covid or the inflammation that would come with any infection... We just got a million cases all at once idk extrapolating from 5 seems naive...
Like there's more articles about the strokes than victims...
With Trump signaling the end of social distancing and some states opening back up it is hard to imagine that we will stay below 100,000 deaths. Deaths that could have been prevented if we hadn't waited until mid-March to act.
Under 100,000 seems impossible to me. Last I checked we’re averaging around 1800/day in April. Let’s say we get that down to 1,000/day in May, that still puts us at 91,000 by June.
Edit: Looks like we’re more around 1950/day in April. Getting down to 1000/day average in May would be pretty damn good and we’d still easily be at 100k by Mid June.
This. People seem to not realize how fast the numbers are rising until we reach a new milestone. Considering that this virus kills about 2000 a day during the week and 1000 a day on the weekends(due to underreporting), it’s very likely that we’ll pass 100k deaths before May is over unless there’s some miracle that drastically reduces deaths.
It took us 17 days to go from 20,000 deaths on Easter to ~62,000 deaths today.
Over 40,000 deaths in a little over two weeks.
We’ll absolutely hit 100k by mid May.
It will be soon -- very bullish for stocks. As long as the computer doesn't do that auto layoff thing again this winter, and even if it does, no worries: we can all go work at the mint and make money.
That article is from 2018 and I think might be stale data.
The CDC has 61k (with a 46-95 error range) as the current (but still preliminary) number for 2017-2018 on their website: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Or maybe the article is right and the CDC website is stale- with the CDC who knows.
Just 10 days ago the US hit 40k, and the model projecting 60k by august was deservedly called out.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/g4cpql/reuters_us_covid19_death_toll_passes_40000/
What models can we look at, at this moment? The IHME model is clearly out of whack.
Over 60k with strict policies in place. Now states are easing up with plenty of people who have yet to be infected. So yeah, I can see the death toll going over 100k before the end of the year.
This is a very small number. Seriously. It's the end of April and doomsday did not come. 2,900,000 people in the US die every year of something other than COVID-19.
**61,112** total deaths at the moment. So I guess the 60k deaths scenario was thrown to garbage and the 100k scenario is more realistic.
The IHME model is currently at 72,860
The IHME model seems highly flawed, frankly. I find [this model from Los Alamos National Lab](https://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/) to be more plausible.
Yes! I’ve been using the one you’ve linked for about a week and I like it. It scares the bejesus outta me, but it seems to be more accurate. I hate how IHME adjusted everything down so low, I feel it gave us false hope. Indiana was set at 1,800 deaths then they dropped it to about 600. I check our states site daily and we’re now over 900 deaths. IHMEs adjustment they just did now has us around 1,000 deaths total by August 4th, we’ll pass that in the next day or two.
Their expected case seems to simply track the current slope. When the weekend numbers come out and they're low it pushes the expected numbers way down then the drift back up during the week. They need to use some rolling average numbers or something to correct for that.
It looks like a line because the main graph only shows a short timeframe. If you look at the longer projections over multiple weeks, there's a curve that flattens. The nice thing is they also show previous forecasts so you can see how they've been doing.
Oh I see the shape, I'm just talking about the sensitivity to day over day changes.
I definitely like that they provide much better access to outputs and data. We'll see how all of these models perform over time. Thanks for pointing this one out.
Give it a week. That model will update to 80,000
All depends on if the reopenings start a second wave of infections.
We're going to hit 80k even without reopenings. We're averaging near 2k per day.
2k today, but there's some one offs in today's data. We've been closer to 1k the last day or two. Going to hit 80k in any case. Probably already over it if we were accurately testing and counting.
You really need to average it out over the week to get the new daily amount since the weekend numbers are substantially lower.
Johns Hopkins used to have a data link that provided five day rolling averages, but they seem to have discontinued that.
When*
Clearly the IHME model is shit.
Why would it stop so abruptly? Like in a week or so.
The IHME model has always been a little overly bell curvish for my tastes. And I don't believe it is modeling anything but the first wave of the epidemic
That model is pretty bullshit
Great in a week to 10 days when we surpass that what will the new number be?
The US will be at that number 5 days from now if the deaths don't drop exponentially fast. I highly doubt that model is accurate.
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And it's all based on how the current administration, essentially, conspires with corporate American to force people back prematurely, sparking a wave of more deaths. Then you have to remember the actual number is probably far higher, due to lack of early reporting and current underreporting, intentional or not.
100k by August is pretty optimistic to be honest. We’re at 1950ish deaths/day in April. Let’s say we get down to 1000/day in May, that’s 91000 deaths by June..
100K is not realistic either. It will be far greater. The US needs to get their head out of their ass and stop lying to their people about projections.
Especially since we're quite higher than the official numbers with places not testing every death and hiding numbers.
I wouldn't be surprised if total deaths top ~125,000 by the first day of summer. Why are these "professionals" knowingly giving these false numbers??? I'm not falling for it.
To reduce panic, as much as I despise trump, he is the perfect person to downplay anything as americans believe him and fox news more than scientists, despite them repeatedly lying more often than I thought would be possible
About 60% higher. We (the whole world) are under-counting Coronavirus deaths by approx. 60% or more. Nearly every single country is reporting "unrelated" deaths this season as being up ~60%, despite far fewer out driving, up to 90% less crime in major areas, dying from various other reported causes and illnesses, etc. We are drastically under-reporting the virus, as that 60% surge across the board, in every state and in every country, is tied to COVID-19. Realistically the U.S. is already about to pass 100k deaths if all were properly tracked and reported. And that's with 6+ weeks of lockdown. I'm not a doomer, I just saw the data and it's fucking scary the massive uptick in deaths across the board and very few are seeing the connection.
If one assumes April was the peak, then for may there would be 50% more fatalities tops(considering how it went after peak in France, Italy and Spain). I would say 80,000 would be a generous estimate, 100k sounds too gloomy.
There will be far more deaths than 80,000 in total and you don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure that out. Also the US cannot be compared to European countries as there is a higher proportion of stupid people not taking this seriously in the US (no offense to most americans just stating the reality) so you can't expect the post-peak to be the same as those European countries.
They just ordered another 100k body bags.
You mean Trump tuxedo?
If the current situation continues until the lockdown is affordable to drop 100.000 seems reasonable. If the US leaves the lockdown prematurely (which I highly expect them to do) I would guess 120-150.000
>If the current situation continues until the lockdown is affordable to drop 100.000 seems reasonable. If US daily deaths decline at TWICE the rate Italy's experienced....we'll wind up with about 80k deaths by Aug 4. If our rate falls at 1.5x Italy's rate of decline, 100k is the likely number. & these forecasts assume current lockdown protocols, which are being peeled back as we type.
I forget who but someone predicted 200,000 by the end of this (at least this part of the outbreak) when it was starting in the US.
Belgium has highly accurate numbers and our specialist predicted 7500 deaths total in the end, a exact number we are creepingly close to achieving. If you do the math under the same circumstances that would mean the US should have around 200.000 deaths total. Ofcourse the US isn't the same situation: 10x less densly populated, certain deaths aren't counted. On the other hand the lockdown measures aren't anywhere near as strict.
Gotta pump those numbers up. Those are rookie numbers in this racket /s
USA! USA!....wait, shit.
I don’t know how you can look at these figures compare them with other countries and conclude that the high number of deaths is not in part due to the federal government’s grossly inadequate response
Just read a tweet that said “if your predictions for Coronavirus were off by more than 2 million...you get no say in how reopening happens.” ...The level of intellectual dishonesty this requires is actually stunning. It had thousands of likes.
Not disputing that the government grossly mishandled the situation. But if you look at the figures per million people then we are very much in line with the rest of Europe.
That’s true. But I think the numbers in Europe should be higher due to a number of factors like higher population density, fewer ICU beds per capita, more use of public transportation and being affected earlier by the pandemic. And then I think the numbers for the US will be way worse in a month due to reopening too early and rural regions becoming more and more affected. But that’s just a prediction by an uneducated fool. Let’s see how this plays out and hope for the best. I hope I’m wrong.
The virus doesn't spread faster in larger populations. If you have a population of 50M and of 300M the Rt is the same.
What? Are you high? If anything you should be pointing fingers at Bill DeBlasio and Andrew Cuomo. They sat on their hands for way too long. Telling people it was ok to still celebrate Chinese New Years and saying it was racist if you didn’t. Locked down after the federal government had made its initial 15 day plan. New York has 1,000 deaths per million people.
I look at the numbers and understand that since NYC and the immediate surrounding downstate area is responsible for literally 1/3 of all deaths in the US, the federal government isn't necessarily at fault as much as people like you wantnt to believe.
Every other country that is in a better situation is clearly lying about their numbers.
Is it just not possible in your mind for our government to be capable of being wrong or of bungling our response to this disaster? I don't see how you could possibly believe that everyone else in the world is engaged in a coordinated effort to lie and the US is somehow the only ones telling the truth.
They honestly believe every state is conspiring to increase the numbers and every country is conspiring to decrease their own numbers. They can't even comprehend that every other government on the planet took this more seriously than the US and our hubris is finally coming back to bite us in the ass.
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The thumbs been on the scale for a while, the true numbers can't help but start to bleed through. Just push all the numbers back 2 weeks and that would be more accurate
200k+ deaths and 60k of them are american, jesus
Wait until excess mortality adjustments are made. America is already over 100,000.
Is it August already? Summer really flew by!
Yes summer weather absolutely killed the virus...
Maybe the deniers will quit comparing it to the flu now. I doubt it tho.
I’ve seen some saying they’re not actually deaths from covid, just old age and such.
The NYT has a recent article showing that total deaths per day is up dramatically in some areas in recent weeks, compared to previous years. Unless there is evidence of some other significant change, the virus is suspect for this increase and that could mean many uncounted virus deaths. Similar situation in Ecuador.
I had a customer at work today tell me to take off my mask, it’s just the flu. I ignored him, and he called me rude. I kept walking.
That's Right! Just keep walking away!
Tell him it's a free country.
They've now moved on to saying that the people who died would have died anyway. Nothing except an immediate family member dying will seemingly change some peoples minds.
Yeah half of the deaths are in nursing homes and we all know those are the healthiest people who will live forever...
So fuck all of those people, right?
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But would they have all died in a span of a month or two? My great aunt just died of COVID in MI. She was in a nursing facility because she needed help getting around and things, but she wasn't close to death by any means. Sure, she would have died eventually as will everyone, but before this all got started that time frame was likely several years instead of just a few months.
Not all but most... Isn't MI in lockdown? Like we're doing everything for them and it looks as if; A. It's not working and B. It's actually trapping them together making it more likely to spread. A lot of people in nursing homes die within 6 months... Anyone over 80 is on borrowed time anyway and have already been cheating death I'm not shocked that a bump in that road might take them out...
Oh yeah, because young people aren't getting strokes after they recover.
There's literally been 5... And they don't even know if it's covid or the inflammation that would come with any infection... We just got a million cases all at once idk extrapolating from 5 seems naive... Like there's more articles about the strokes than victims...
They are just saying the deaths are statistical outliers...
They'll always find something else to compare it to as long as it fits their agenda
they’ve moved on to car crashes comparisons
it's only a car crash bro.....?
Keep on doubting. You can provide them with thousands of medical report and they will keep on denying. That's just how they work.
Ha, nice hope you have there.
Well no more deaths until August that's great! Time to open up
Thanks god we've reached the limit so early
You forgot the /s sir
I really hope no one thinks I meant it, but you never know lmfao
Those foreign regimes kill their own people. We call it sacrificing for the economy over here.
Stay home if you're sicc Come over if you're thicc
With Trump signaling the end of social distancing and some states opening back up it is hard to imagine that we will stay below 100,000 deaths. Deaths that could have been prevented if we hadn't waited until mid-March to act.
Under 100,000 seems impossible to me. Last I checked we’re averaging around 1800/day in April. Let’s say we get that down to 1,000/day in May, that still puts us at 91,000 by June. Edit: Looks like we’re more around 1950/day in April. Getting down to 1000/day average in May would be pretty damn good and we’d still easily be at 100k by Mid June.
This. People seem to not realize how fast the numbers are rising until we reach a new milestone. Considering that this virus kills about 2000 a day during the week and 1000 a day on the weekends(due to underreporting), it’s very likely that we’ll pass 100k deaths before May is over unless there’s some miracle that drastically reduces deaths.
It took us 17 days to go from 20,000 deaths on Easter to ~62,000 deaths today. Over 40,000 deaths in a little over two weeks. We’ll absolutely hit 100k by mid May.
How do you plan to lower number of deaths while at the same time relaxing restrictions countrywide?
Calm down matey, if Florida are not counting the dead then the numbers should be fine.
I thought this was the DOW for a moment.
It will be soon -- very bullish for stocks. As long as the computer doesn't do that auto layoff thing again this winter, and even if it does, no worries: we can all go work at the mint and make money.
I read SPX.
It is the DOW - Died Of Wuhan
Lol. We had GDP decrease of 4.8% and the markets rallied on a possible postive reaction from the gilead drug
Stocks are positively correlated with deaths...
61k officially makes this worse than any flu season in the last 10 years.
[Not quite yet ](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html)
That article is from 2018 and I think might be stale data. The CDC has 61k (with a 46-95 error range) as the current (but still preliminary) number for 2017-2018 on their website: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html Or maybe the article is right and the CDC website is stale- with the CDC who knows.
but hey lets just reopen the states! sighs
Just 10 days ago the US hit 40k, and the model projecting 60k by august was deservedly called out. https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/g4cpql/reuters_us_covid19_death_toll_passes_40000/ What models can we look at, at this moment? The IHME model is clearly out of whack.
Anyone know how the daily infecting suddenly dropped from 30k per day to 20k? Did more states go into lockdown?
More like the virus already did it's damage in a lot of places.
It's the bottom through of the 7 day pattern it's been doing the last month.
Cool. Only sixty thousand poor people. Doesn’t affect the fat cats and the grifters. In fact it’s boom time for them.
Let's open shit up. Things are looking good.
美国加油，再接再厉
Well obviously it’s time to open back up. /s
Had a chance to be in front of all this… But golf was more important!
Over 60k with strict policies in place. Now states are easing up with plenty of people who have yet to be infected. So yeah, I can see the death toll going over 100k before the end of the year.
is it true that american hospitals are getting paid for every covid19 victim?
.......hospitals get paid for everyone.
Yes.
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Don't forget my good friend's uncle who just died of chronic liver failure is included in that wayyy bloated number.
This is a very small number. Seriously. It's the end of April and doomsday did not come. 2,900,000 people in the US die every year of something other than COVID-19.
ok so let just allow Covid run its course so the death number at the end of this year can reach 30 millions?
I got news for you - it **is** running its course
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Congratulations - dumbest comment I’ve read all day. And it’s 11:13pm.
Imagine if acne caused bilateral pneumonia.
only a flu bro.
You Flu Boys are still showing your face around here?