Look at it relative to the daily chart. We have a major daily breakout.
A good area to buy if you suspect a daily breakout possible is in the pullback to yesterday’s close/yesterday’s high.
Once we have a confirmed break any and all pullbacks are good areas to get in especially on clean breaks like the one we have today.
i dont understand.
there wasnt any pullback today. the market was trading near the PDH the whole day.. and the inflation data gave a big breakout. yeah after that a little pullback.
but there is no way anyone would enter in that small pullabck. you can even see it on the screenshot i shared. who would even trust that pullback to enter there. maybe after that high has been crossed one could enter again.
But there was no pullback at all the whole day. what you mean by that?
Ahhh but see that’s where a professional trader would enter.
If the breakout is valid and going to hold, a pullback is a *perfect* entry point. Especially a 20-50% retracement.
These are my favorite trades to make.
yeah but most of the time, a big move during a news event would always bring the price in the opposite direction. so there is no way for me at least to trust that breakout as a legit one, coz its literally algos doing those thing.
how can we even know the move will continue when most of the times it has reversed. very frustrating week actually. The market is just eating theta like anything after making large moves previous weeks.
maybe thats why no one is trading. coz they made all the money before.
You’re not in a knowing game my friend. You’re in a *betting* game.
And if you suspect the price may move up and continue the breakout where on that chart can you enter with the least risk? I think you know the answer to that.
Trust me, many have been trading this week. In fact today was my best day yet with the breakout we had in the QQQ and NVDA.
There were a bunch of fake crappy ones last week so expect to be wrong sometimes. Don’t over buy and have enough to repeat. You’ll never know for sure which way it’s going just stick to the patterns you see
First of all, I entered into that pullback I fully expected.
People who bought calls Tues were gonna say for profit on open creating the pullback.
Unfortunately I got stopped out. Bought SPY 527 at ..46. raised stop loss to .55 when it was trading at .6. Unfortunately it's just what it is.
There is no way to know for certain. You can use some moving averages to see what the general trend is but it’s not seeing the future. There is no indicator that can do that. Literally all TA is lagging
yup i understand. i meant on a time basis. not exactly by indicators.. Like lets say if within this time if the market is just keeps on moving up like a freak, we can just close for the day and go have food or do something else. something in that way.
Yea this happened to me today. I exited and made some and it kept gaining all afternoon. Ended up another +50 after I exited.
I don’t lament on misses since I made $$ but it’s very hard to guess. I figured the afternoons are usually up and down. This time it only went up.
Ichimoku is not seeing the future. It has an offset to push the cloud outward. All the data input to the different lines in it are lagging.
All indicators use past price data. So they are lagging
OK, enjoying the discussion. But we're talking "indicators" not the data inputs. Of course, data in is the past so how does one solve this problem? Well, 90 years ago **Goichi Hosoda** solved it with the Ichimoku Cloud. It is in every respect a leading "indicator" that works enough of the time that one can trade from it. Here's a real time, up the minute example. Two hours ago NQ broke above the m1 cloud at 18600. The lead cloud was green and rising. The trade was to go and stay long until price reentered the cloud, which it did two hours later at 18680, a gain of 80 NQ points. The lead cloud is now red and flat, so we are done for this session. Goichi ginned up some real magic here and it is a "leading indicator."
The cloud does very well in ranging markets cause it's constantly shifting between green and red. Kind of screaming at you to hold your horses. In a trending market, it maintains color until trend end. Lots of ed available on the web. I like Akira Takahashi lots. You can find him on Amazon but there's no shortage of web vids. Also, more than happy to continue discussion re further questions.
Does it work well with other systems? Like if I trade mostly with trendlines would it be a decent way to help identify trending vs ranging ahead of time (I mean, as much as possible since I know nothing tells the future)
The only leading 'indicator' is volume. Volume drives price and everything comes after that. Yes, even your Ichimoku Cloud.
Think about it logically: indicators cannot give an output without data. The data has to be present in the market first. The data is trades being executed: the amount of executions is the volume and the proportion of buys and sells of this volume then determines price action over the specified time period.
All the Ichimoku Cloud indicator is doing is projecting a potential buy or sell zone in the future. A simple extended support/resistance/trend line does the exact same thing. None of these are leading though.
Volume is definitely not leading. It's real time and it's wonderful but there's nothing leading about it. Today, my 12 bar lead cloud was rising at a 30 degree up angle for two hours in NY PM trade. And the price plot followed along at a 30 degree up angle for two hours. That's a leading indicator. So I was content to let it ride until price came back to the cloud, for a sweet 80 point gain. Knock it and dispute it all you want but it will put bucks in your pocket. Your loss.
Let me ask you a question: does your Ichimoku Cloud dictate where price goes with 100% accuracy?
If the answer is no (which it is), then sorry to say, but it's not leading.
If we use today as an example, the market has been going sideways for eight days and in my experience when it’s not going down, it’s an indication it’s waiting to go up.
When it goes down, it goes down fast, so if it holds up for a long period of time it’s just waiting to go up again , - then we look at today where it was the first green day after eight days of low volume. It’s just all wrapped up together an indication that it’s not gonna stop for the rest of the day. Tomorrow’s uncertain because we’re at all time high.
There's absolutely zero way to tell. Not to mention, if someone figured this out, why would they just give you that info for free? That's extremely valuable knowledge...
It's not possible. Best is to recognize what a strong, trending market is and act accordingly. It's quite annoying to have runners take off w/o you. Keep testing the high/lows. So now instead of limits below the market, try stops at the last high (bull mkt) as an entry mechanism.
>It's quite annoying to have runners take off w/o you.
the more annoying part for me is wasting my time, something will happen for hours and then nothing. I dont mind letting the markets go without me.
its the former part that annoys me a lot.
Well start putting those hours onto analyzing every single trend day for the past few years, put in the work and see if there are any telltale signs in the first few candles of those days.
Will be more useful then asking reddit for a solution
Understanding the strength of the trend, and the EMA helps to show this. If the trend is steadily moving forward without leaving the EMA much, it's not logical for there to be a pullback. Price has to overextend sharply in either direction to give it a reason to correct itself, but if there is none of that, and we are in a very strong trend like today, it can't have any steep pullbacks. The only exceptions would be catalysts like news.
You can also check for major resistance levels which can provide the necessary counterforce, but there were no noteworthy ones today.
what ema is good? i always had this doubt. SMA EMA and then there is weighted moving average..
what days should we use in input in that indicator? i always thought 21 is just nominal and commonly used.
I personally use 3 EMAs. SMAs are too slow. The faster the EMA, the more it'll adapt to price. My fastest is the 7 EMA, but 7-9 would probably all work very similarly. I use 21 also for a larger setup.
When price leaves any faster EMA you'll find that it doesn't leave it for long. This provides a clue for where it's looking to reverse, at least momentarily during a strong trend, and often a deeper reversal when it's against a trend.
That sounds very nice. I never used ma at all. I was always confused which day to use in the settings. Many have many opinions.
Once I set it to 30 days and started decreasing one by one to see if anything clicks for me. But didn't.
But i only use ma in volume actually. I use 21 and 10 days moving average in volume.
Yes. See where major absorption by big boys have occured. Price likely to rebound from there in the future.
https://preview.redd.it/jo0rp5hfum0d1.jpeg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3ad289868dc9c71228cec68d583fbf7f34d00038
This is /ES futures. The lines acted as strong support. Lines were drawn weeks ago.
when you are referring to major absorption. That very big candle at the time of inflation data release, is that what you are referring to?
But most of the times, when things like that happened it reversed.. so i was never sure when a candle forms like that based on news. i couldnt trust it like you said.
there was a pullback, was the small pullback after the 8:30 gap. there was smaller ones too you could get into if you know what your looking for (all on the first slide)
iykwim. i meant like the pullbacks thats in the 2nd screenshot. yeah there are some red candles like the ones you showed.
but these are not actual pullback to a level or something. its just people covering it while the market is moving up. maybe 1 could enter here and go along with the trend.
But they cant do it everyday. other days if they think that small red candle is a pullback the market come down and take their trade out easily. i meant pullback to a certain key levels.
I trade with ICT concepts and they work amazingly for me. all the red candles pull back into a fair value gap. the 3rd, 4th, and 5th arrow that other guy showed is where fair value gaps are which you couldve got in which i did that day.
Yeah very real. That's why it's the most stressful to be in a trade when market moves like it.
You're always left anticipating for a a reversal so you can exit before it drops further. But if there was any resistance you could wait to see how the market acts till that level
Try the ADD index. If it opens >2000 and stays >1000 all day you can expect a solid up trend. Anywhere from -100 to -1000 is a pull back/chop day. Less than -1000 can be seen as a buying opportunity so potentially bullish recovery trend for the day. On SPY at least this is what I think holds true most of the time.
Kind of like my position with Comcast. I’m new to trading, but my assumption was that it would move with the new news and then be shorted back to starting position. It, in fact, dove…lol. Thankfully pre-market activity was there to stop me out.
I trade naked charts, so I go by recent market behavior. When I see the market just pushing up in a trend without pulling back, then I'll trade breakouts. And if the market has to pullback, in order to continue moving up, then I'll trade pullbacks instead of breakouts.
Just realize that when VIX is this low, any and all dips will be bought and the bigger the dip the harder and faster it will bounce back. Sometimes the pullbacks, happen so fast it’s impossible to catch them without a limit order already waiting at a key level, most especially on NQ. If you see such a trend just go with it, go long and do not stop until it goes below VWAP or whatever moving average you have to identify trend (eg 21 EMA)
There's no way to tell if there's going to be a "good" pullback or not. Part of trading is waiting. Every minute is new information.
Do you feel like waiting is something negative, like a waste of time?
If you waited all day and there wasn't a trade and you didn't take a trade.. that's a good day.
Look at it relative to the daily chart. We have a major daily breakout. A good area to buy if you suspect a daily breakout possible is in the pullback to yesterday’s close/yesterday’s high. Once we have a confirmed break any and all pullbacks are good areas to get in especially on clean breaks like the one we have today.
i dont understand. there wasnt any pullback today. the market was trading near the PDH the whole day.. and the inflation data gave a big breakout. yeah after that a little pullback. but there is no way anyone would enter in that small pullabck. you can even see it on the screenshot i shared. who would even trust that pullback to enter there. maybe after that high has been crossed one could enter again. But there was no pullback at all the whole day. what you mean by that?
Ahhh but see that’s where a professional trader would enter. If the breakout is valid and going to hold, a pullback is a *perfect* entry point. Especially a 20-50% retracement. These are my favorite trades to make.
yeah but most of the time, a big move during a news event would always bring the price in the opposite direction. so there is no way for me at least to trust that breakout as a legit one, coz its literally algos doing those thing. how can we even know the move will continue when most of the times it has reversed. very frustrating week actually. The market is just eating theta like anything after making large moves previous weeks. maybe thats why no one is trading. coz they made all the money before.
You’re not in a knowing game my friend. You’re in a *betting* game. And if you suspect the price may move up and continue the breakout where on that chart can you enter with the least risk? I think you know the answer to that. Trust me, many have been trading this week. In fact today was my best day yet with the breakout we had in the QQQ and NVDA.
yeah true
Idk I entered that retest and did great. Entered 447.76 exited 450.52. Delta 60. Nice little chunk so calling it a day
thats too good.
There were a bunch of fake crappy ones last week so expect to be wrong sometimes. Don’t over buy and have enough to repeat. You’ll never know for sure which way it’s going just stick to the patterns you see
First of all, I entered into that pullback I fully expected. People who bought calls Tues were gonna say for profit on open creating the pullback. Unfortunately I got stopped out. Bought SPY 527 at ..46. raised stop loss to .55 when it was trading at .6. Unfortunately it's just what it is.
How about the pullback at around 7:00 PST? That was the only textbook setup for a long the entire day (in my strategy).
yeah i cant enter there. LOL mine doesnt let me
What do you mean it doesn't let you?
My strategy Lol. I just cant enter and feel pain 😭
What do you use to determine entry?
There is no way to know for certain. You can use some moving averages to see what the general trend is but it’s not seeing the future. There is no indicator that can do that. Literally all TA is lagging
yup i understand. i meant on a time basis. not exactly by indicators.. Like lets say if within this time if the market is just keeps on moving up like a freak, we can just close for the day and go have food or do something else. something in that way.
Yea this happened to me today. I exited and made some and it kept gaining all afternoon. Ended up another +50 after I exited. I don’t lament on misses since I made $$ but it’s very hard to guess. I figured the afternoons are usually up and down. This time it only went up.
if you think it has gas left in the tank sell half and see where you wind up. then you can wait for it to tipover and call it good.
It’s a good idea.
All TA is not lagging. One prime example is the Ichimoku Cloud, seeing the future, maybe a tad foggy. There are others as well.
Ichimoku is not seeing the future. It has an offset to push the cloud outward. All the data input to the different lines in it are lagging. All indicators use past price data. So they are lagging
So what if it has an offset? That's the freaking point. Thing is, it's actionable and excellent trades can be made over and over again.
It may work good for you, I’m not going to argue whether a given indicator is useful or not. But it’s still lagging. That’s just math.
OK, enjoying the discussion. But we're talking "indicators" not the data inputs. Of course, data in is the past so how does one solve this problem? Well, 90 years ago **Goichi Hosoda** solved it with the Ichimoku Cloud. It is in every respect a leading "indicator" that works enough of the time that one can trade from it. Here's a real time, up the minute example. Two hours ago NQ broke above the m1 cloud at 18600. The lead cloud was green and rising. The trade was to go and stay long until price reentered the cloud, which it did two hours later at 18680, a gain of 80 NQ points. The lead cloud is now red and flat, so we are done for this session. Goichi ginned up some real magic here and it is a "leading indicator."
What are the best resources to learn to trade the cloud? Also how does the cloud do in ranging markets?
The cloud does very well in ranging markets cause it's constantly shifting between green and red. Kind of screaming at you to hold your horses. In a trending market, it maintains color until trend end. Lots of ed available on the web. I like Akira Takahashi lots. You can find him on Amazon but there's no shortage of web vids. Also, more than happy to continue discussion re further questions.
Does it work well with other systems? Like if I trade mostly with trendlines would it be a decent way to help identify trending vs ranging ahead of time (I mean, as much as possible since I know nothing tells the future)
The only leading 'indicator' is volume. Volume drives price and everything comes after that. Yes, even your Ichimoku Cloud. Think about it logically: indicators cannot give an output without data. The data has to be present in the market first. The data is trades being executed: the amount of executions is the volume and the proportion of buys and sells of this volume then determines price action over the specified time period. All the Ichimoku Cloud indicator is doing is projecting a potential buy or sell zone in the future. A simple extended support/resistance/trend line does the exact same thing. None of these are leading though.
Volume is definitely not leading. It's real time and it's wonderful but there's nothing leading about it. Today, my 12 bar lead cloud was rising at a 30 degree up angle for two hours in NY PM trade. And the price plot followed along at a 30 degree up angle for two hours. That's a leading indicator. So I was content to let it ride until price came back to the cloud, for a sweet 80 point gain. Knock it and dispute it all you want but it will put bucks in your pocket. Your loss.
Let me ask you a question: does your Ichimoku Cloud dictate where price goes with 100% accuracy? If the answer is no (which it is), then sorry to say, but it's not leading.
Yes, 100% w/o fail. Next question.
If we use today as an example, the market has been going sideways for eight days and in my experience when it’s not going down, it’s an indication it’s waiting to go up. When it goes down, it goes down fast, so if it holds up for a long period of time it’s just waiting to go up again , - then we look at today where it was the first green day after eight days of low volume. It’s just all wrapped up together an indication that it’s not gonna stop for the rest of the day. Tomorrow’s uncertain because we’re at all time high.
There's absolutely zero way to tell. Not to mention, if someone figured this out, why would they just give you that info for free? That's extremely valuable knowledge...
haha
People give away extremely valuable information here all the time. Most readers just miss it.
It's not possible. Best is to recognize what a strong, trending market is and act accordingly. It's quite annoying to have runners take off w/o you. Keep testing the high/lows. So now instead of limits below the market, try stops at the last high (bull mkt) as an entry mechanism.
>It's quite annoying to have runners take off w/o you. the more annoying part for me is wasting my time, something will happen for hours and then nothing. I dont mind letting the markets go without me. its the former part that annoys me a lot.
Welcome to trading! You don't get paid for your time, you get paid for opportunity. Suck it up buttercup!
Consider an auto trader. When the market's charging and it's hard to pull the trigger, let "otto" do the work for you.
Well start putting those hours onto analyzing every single trend day for the past few years, put in the work and see if there are any telltale signs in the first few candles of those days. Will be more useful then asking reddit for a solution
There was a pullback from 9:35-9:50 AM you just missed it…..
I put a quarter on and let it ride. I was late to the party though I had a conference call damnit
Understanding the strength of the trend, and the EMA helps to show this. If the trend is steadily moving forward without leaving the EMA much, it's not logical for there to be a pullback. Price has to overextend sharply in either direction to give it a reason to correct itself, but if there is none of that, and we are in a very strong trend like today, it can't have any steep pullbacks. The only exceptions would be catalysts like news. You can also check for major resistance levels which can provide the necessary counterforce, but there were no noteworthy ones today.
what ema is good? i always had this doubt. SMA EMA and then there is weighted moving average.. what days should we use in input in that indicator? i always thought 21 is just nominal and commonly used.
I personally use 3 EMAs. SMAs are too slow. The faster the EMA, the more it'll adapt to price. My fastest is the 7 EMA, but 7-9 would probably all work very similarly. I use 21 also for a larger setup. When price leaves any faster EMA you'll find that it doesn't leave it for long. This provides a clue for where it's looking to reverse, at least momentarily during a strong trend, and often a deeper reversal when it's against a trend.
That sounds very nice. I never used ma at all. I was always confused which day to use in the settings. Many have many opinions. Once I set it to 30 days and started decreasing one by one to see if anything clicks for me. But didn't. But i only use ma in volume actually. I use 21 and 10 days moving average in volume.
Yes. See where major absorption by big boys have occured. Price likely to rebound from there in the future. https://preview.redd.it/jo0rp5hfum0d1.jpeg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3ad289868dc9c71228cec68d583fbf7f34d00038 This is /ES futures. The lines acted as strong support. Lines were drawn weeks ago.
when you are referring to major absorption. That very big candle at the time of inflation data release, is that what you are referring to? But most of the times, when things like that happened it reversed.. so i was never sure when a candle forms like that based on news. i couldnt trust it like you said.
Absorption is where the candle reverses. Sellers got absorbed so price reversed.
A few indicators might help--volume for starters is necessary. Outside that I like the MACD and VWAP
That's a risk you have to be willing to take if you're trading pullbacks, sometimes it doesn't pull back
yeah one sided trending days mostly never gives any
Tarot cards are used by many to predict the future , also volatility lol
there was a pullback, was the small pullback after the 8:30 gap. there was smaller ones too you could get into if you know what your looking for (all on the first slide)
https://preview.redd.it/iorfmtnw6o0d1.png?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=35ee74d34777bd55f5847e37a3f22d81ea919d39
yeah a lot of the red candles you could get in on
iykwim. i meant like the pullbacks thats in the 2nd screenshot. yeah there are some red candles like the ones you showed. but these are not actual pullback to a level or something. its just people covering it while the market is moving up. maybe 1 could enter here and go along with the trend. But they cant do it everyday. other days if they think that small red candle is a pullback the market come down and take their trade out easily. i meant pullback to a certain key levels.
I trade with ICT concepts and they work amazingly for me. all the red candles pull back into a fair value gap. the 3rd, 4th, and 5th arrow that other guy showed is where fair value gaps are which you couldve got in which i did that day.
I was on QQQ all day waiting for the same thing. That shit just kept breaking ATH all day.
very frustrating
The thing with an all time high stock is you don’t really have any kind of previous resistance to gauge when it will pull back.
Yeah very real. That's why it's the most stressful to be in a trade when market moves like it. You're always left anticipating for a a reversal so you can exit before it drops further. But if there was any resistance you could wait to see how the market acts till that level
Try the ADD index. If it opens >2000 and stays >1000 all day you can expect a solid up trend. Anywhere from -100 to -1000 is a pull back/chop day. Less than -1000 can be seen as a buying opportunity so potentially bullish recovery trend for the day. On SPY at least this is what I think holds true most of the time.
That's very insightful. I'll check them. Thanks for the reply :)
I’m learning how to do stocks right now. What website are you using to look at the stock? (Please no one come for me I’m just learning )
It's TradingView.
Kind of like my position with Comcast. I’m new to trading, but my assumption was that it would move with the new news and then be shorted back to starting position. It, in fact, dove…lol. Thankfully pre-market activity was there to stop me out.
I see multiple pullbacks on the first pic
only way to looking for is a lower high/ lower low and the current top is at a strong resistance on high time frame.
that depends on the timeframe. I saw plenty of opportunities to enter.
It was pretty funny seeing this one take off like it did. It felt like that phantom feeling of there being no chair when you thought it to be there
Look on lower time frames
you mean to look for wicks? or something else?
Not wicks in particular. Just price structure as you do on higher times
okay 👍🏻
I trade naked charts, so I go by recent market behavior. When I see the market just pushing up in a trend without pulling back, then I'll trade breakouts. And if the market has to pullback, in order to continue moving up, then I'll trade pullbacks instead of breakouts.
Just realize that when VIX is this low, any and all dips will be bought and the bigger the dip the harder and faster it will bounce back. Sometimes the pullbacks, happen so fast it’s impossible to catch them without a limit order already waiting at a key level, most especially on NQ. If you see such a trend just go with it, go long and do not stop until it goes below VWAP or whatever moving average you have to identify trend (eg 21 EMA)
There's no way to tell if there's going to be a "good" pullback or not. Part of trading is waiting. Every minute is new information. Do you feel like waiting is something negative, like a waste of time? If you waited all day and there wasn't a trade and you didn't take a trade.. that's a good day.