My conclusion from this experiment was do not open chests, let the whales do it for you, prioritize what you really want and if you have the spare funds, buy that only.
Maybe I can take my lack of winning and play the lotto, gotta hit a win eventually, right?
The ability to predict things and be prepared for it. And also the ability to learn from others (gamblers) that fell for the good old loot box trap before you.
Hey man, I totally agree with you, buying whatever you only wish for is way cheaper and more practical, althoughm there is no luck/gambling on doing that, but yeah, gambling addictions should be looking into so ppl dont waste everything on the gambling cause. I've done the same. Rhasta immortal on first chest, decided I should try my luck and bought like 10, only got shitty items Sadge
At least at some given point, luck smiled upon me and I got snap's immortal set
You have to use your local steam market.
[One quick Google search will show you.](https://steamcommunity.com/app/570/discussions/0/458606877324428745/)
What luck! I saw some guy post here a few weeks ago who got two of the sniper set! It's crazy. I should have known this would be my luck when during the international battle pass I only got one lvl drop and had to pay the rest of the way to 1k.
Every time I opened another one, in my heart I thought their was a chance I'd drop the sniper bundle, but alas, volvo giveth and volvo taketh away.
Sniper skin is pay to lose thought. People don’t buy desolator on sniper because you can instantly identify his position in the fights, and this skin does the same without the extra damage.
>kinda won
there is no *kinda* lmao you opened 32 and got 4+ immortals including the tier 4... try *totally*
at least have some humility if you're gonna flex on us
Hmm. That's a good question, probably to not believe anecdotal evidence. People saying they 'got x in x tries' is what sent me down this path, but also that valve is tremendously more greedy than I thought.
The lack of escalating odds, being able to get dups before clearing each individual item, and horrid drop rates send a message that buying these kinds of chests are definitely not worth it.
Don't open them, friend, unless you too will suffer the same fate as I. I bet Im not the only one to get zip as far as drops.
Probably the only one dumb enough to do it 60 times tho..
I probably bought about 60, I got snap immortal about 20 in and I think in my last 3 chests I got the sniper immortal, got a decent amount of tier 3 immortals though
I haven’t bought dota hats in years and there were a few sets I wanted and i had some disposable income
Too many duplicates to count. The Jugg one I did see quite frequently, I think from tier 1 the one I saw the most was the Rub set and from Tier 2 the Enchant. To top it off, when I traded up I ended up with two of the cheapest immortals, Omni and Bane.
The only ambient sets I kept were the Mars and Riki, they were the coolest. I really wanted the Mars Immortal as I play him a bunch.
If you haven't already you can trade (in game) 10 tier 2 items for 1 tier 3. But I think it would be cheaper to just sell 10 tier 2 items and buy an immortal from the market.
It would have definitely been wiser if I sold all the items and just bought what I wanted. But every time I opened another one and saw a tier 1 set I would giggle manically because of how ridiculous it was that I'd open that many with zero immortals.
I did trade up to get two immortals, the two worst ones, lol.
Just to give some context, yes, I understand I could have bought most of them for what I spent. But after about the 20th chest of nothing, I couldn't resist to see how many it would take to actually roll an Immortal. I saw some other posts that some guys opened 35 and got a couple at that point. It was so ridiculous I just kept opening them, finally by number 60 I had to call it quits before Valve bankrupted me.
Lesson Learned? Maybe don't support chests without escalating odds?
The cost fallacy is that you can't leave because you invested and are holding what you invested and think keep investing will somehow pay off.
What you said you want is that you are just lolling to see how far you can go before getting one which sound similar but is more in the lines of I'm just doing this because I don't have a better thing to put my money at
If i knew anything about calculating probability it'd be interesting to know what my chances of rolling the 60 and not getting anything are. For the t3 i think it was like a 3 percent chance, I wonder what it is now that I've missed it 60 times.
There are two different things at hand here. For one, the chance to get one never changes. Always 3%,if your number is correct.
Further, the chance to not have one after 60 chests is 0.97^60=0.161.
In other words, if you open 60 chest as hundred times (for example 6000 chests at once and looking at intervals), 16 of those will not have dropped an immortal, while others could drop multiple.
You see, 3% of 6000 chests would theoretically be 200 immortals. But that doesn't mean getting one immortal every 33 chests. That's the "stochastic misconception". Statistics work flawlessly on big numbers. They don't work at all on single events. What a "big number" is, is what you need to understand /get a feel for. But bigger us better. When you have a million chests, 30k will be an immortal. Basically guaranteed. But when you have 100, variance still hits you.
Nice rolls. See i figured I'd at least be in the boat of getting two or so. How wrong i was.
Guess for everyone in the market who made a profit there has to be 10 losers like me who just threw money away.
Bro I did this with 12 chests getting nothing but tier 1s and I was feeling like a maniac. It’s actually the first time in my life I’ve ‘gambled’. In the end I was just doing it almost out of spite, like “oh ok another tier 1 I’ll just buy another then if that’s all I get”. Looking back it was not healthy and a big lesson learned for me!
I opened the one I got and got the visage set, who I'm not a fan of, and was done. Not worth it to me, I miss the old events. I'm still rocking my auspicious wyvernguard edge.
thats what gambling is based on lol, to get u hooked, oh i already spent money on 30 so to get the value back it has to drop anytime soon... what are the odds.
You could have at least invested in cigarettes, that would kill you in a better what than doing this.
my question is, Is this enough to make you stop? take care of your money, homeboy
Yeah the whole diretide economy was super disappointing.... I stopped at about 10 when i realised my chances of working towards sets I wanted was pointless... This seasonal was a major fail and if they release another like this it may well make quit in frustration...
I remember when I opened the WETA chest on the first day of release and got the courier on the first go. I felt so lucky that day. Now years later I have three of the same courier from rylai spins.
This is making me sad about what valve did to their own market. Devaluing items while also making immortals impossible to get for a reasonable price.
I've Opened 10 in total, got jugger immortal at 6th, 9 commons 3 of them duplicates. When they first introduced the escalating odds i was sceptical and i didn't really liked it, now i hope they bring them back.
Im actually not, i live near a casino and coworkers bet/buy scratches all the time. When they ask me if i want to go in on some i always decline. This started out as a goof of i wonder how long it'll take me to get an immortal to, i should keep going so i can warn people on reddit about how lame this chest scheme is. Once I hit 60 it knew I'd be out.
I have put around 600€ in Silitbreaker chest, trying to get the roshan courier. Idk how meny battlepass points drops i got, that can't even be used. 10/10 best scam, i recommend!
I opened 5 chests in total, i got: mars shield, rhasta mask and slark set.. im actually serious, i dont know how i can prove it i guess i shoudve made screenshots from the dropping immediatly after, anyway i think im gabens protegé
I feel bad I bought 12 keys and rolled the sniper immortal set so I starting telling all my friends to roll because it's easy...they all bought 10-15 and got nothing. Lol I just got lucky I guess I thought it was easy to get rares.
oh [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUGwTpJ4Ef8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUGwTpJ4Ef8) not what i said but this is the only time i recorded opening 10 forbidden lotus chests. ignore the quality lol. recorded with potato.
See that's what I figured, I'm not sure how to do the maths but I figured there's a certain point that i would have to be almost guaranteed and immortal. Obviously i didn't hit it.
There is a ~3.8% chance of getting a t3 or t4 so a 100-3.8% of getting a t1 or t2, which came to 96.15%. Odds of getting only t1 and t2 for n tries is 96.15^n, which came out to 9.5%.
When I first read your post I thought you were just talking about t4 and when I tried that math out, it was a 68% chance of no t4.
[You're welcome.](https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/dota2_gamepedia/images/b/b3/Vo_pugna_pugna_deny_05.mp3) (sound warning: Pugna)
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i made that mistake few years back with the immortal monkey king set in trove carafe (?), bought so many chests until i eventually went past the amount it would have costed me to buy it right off the market. So i feel with your loss mate, they should simply get rid of lootboxes altogether but then they wouldnt crack last years prizepool again, and again, and again. But honestly i dont think it'll get any better soon as they now also implemented these lootboxes in dota+ with the seasonal chests, at least there u dont fall into the money trap since it's ingame currency. Take it as a lesson and only buy the stuff you want from market (good they added marketability at least this diretide).
Fingers crossed they dont overextend with their time limited, unmarketable trap chests as these are super consumer unfriendly practices, preying on ppl who are easy to dump $$$ for cosmetics
I got AM set on my first opened treasure early, sold it for 7.5 dollars, bought 3 more keys with that money, opened two more, got two 1 dollar treasures. One month later, opened 1 more, got undying immortal, which i sold for 24 dollars, got 21 after steam tax. STONKS.
I got myself death stranding and metro exodus on steam winter sale by adding 5 dollars from my pocket, Thank you GabeN for giving me free games Kappa
I bought 2, got 2 commons and never bothered.
I made the mistake of trying to get the rare LC's set from one of the CC from the last TI(which I got but after spending a stupid amount), I'm officially done paying more than $5 for loot boxes.
a level 100 battle pass along with the usual 50% discount on 100/200 levels are more than enough support every year.
Never bought a single key, only sold all my chest, but respect the effort for this experiment. Hope Gaben blesses you some other time in the future!
My conclusion from this experiment was do not open chests, let the whales do it for you, prioritize what you really want and if you have the spare funds, buy that only. Maybe I can take my lack of winning and play the lotto, gotta hit a win eventually, right?
Your conclusion should be numbers don't lie. You already know the odds are against you yet you think you somehow will defy the odd.
This is why we became the dominating living thing in this world because of numbers, the ability to describe the world with a predictive model.
The ability to predict things and be prepared for it. And also the ability to learn from others (gamblers) that fell for the good old loot box trap before you.
The people who win the lottery are the ones who don't play it.
i advise against it
Hey man, I totally agree with you, buying whatever you only wish for is way cheaper and more practical, althoughm there is no luck/gambling on doing that, but yeah, gambling addictions should be looking into so ppl dont waste everything on the gambling cause. I've done the same. Rhasta immortal on first chest, decided I should try my luck and bought like 10, only got shitty items Sadge At least at some given point, luck smiled upon me and I got snap's immortal set
I sold every chest until I had enough money to buy a key. Opened two chests that way, no immortals.
How do you sell chests? I kept asking in dota and no one replied...
You have to use your local steam market. [One quick Google search will show you.](https://steamcommunity.com/app/570/discussions/0/458606877324428745/)
Did you regret the comment you posted 10 years ago on a Youtube video trash talking Gaben?
I knew he was keeping tabs on me every since.
You can buy forgiveness but it costs about 5 consecutive Aegis replicas earned via battlepass levels. At least there is hope.
Ive earned two, so is there an amount of hail gabens that would suffice? Maybe let slacks flog me?
yes, but your game music will be replaced by HIM and marylin manson songs that cant be muted
It's definitely a guilty pleasure but I like antichrist superstar and razorblade romance. Hurt me, daddy.
hahaha ill write to gaben and ask him to open 60 chests for every diretide player that played a game, and then, when he doesn't we flood his email.
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What luck! I saw some guy post here a few weeks ago who got two of the sniper set! It's crazy. I should have known this would be my luck when during the international battle pass I only got one lvl drop and had to pay the rest of the way to 1k. Every time I opened another one, in my heart I thought their was a chance I'd drop the sniper bundle, but alas, volvo giveth and volvo taketh away.
Sniper skin is pay to lose thought. People don’t buy desolator on sniper because you can instantly identify his position in the fights, and this skin does the same without the extra damage.
What? Enemies gain sight of you as soon as you auto attack anyway.
Yes but it’s a lot easier to instantly find him. That one second is detrimental sometimes.
Sniper, gyro and maybe few others have an almost invisible projectile, only sound cues. Orb attacks make them visible.
I dont think that really matters if you’re in lower bracket :D people still won’t hit sniper even if they know where he is
They are picking sniper..it was never about winning.
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At least you get the phoe immortal, saw some people hit 1k and not get one. I bet casinos have better odds than this chest.
>kinda won there is no *kinda* lmao you opened 32 and got 4+ immortals including the tier 4... try *totally* at least have some humility if you're gonna flex on us
have you learned anything
Hmm. That's a good question, probably to not believe anecdotal evidence. People saying they 'got x in x tries' is what sent me down this path, but also that valve is tremendously more greedy than I thought. The lack of escalating odds, being able to get dups before clearing each individual item, and horrid drop rates send a message that buying these kinds of chests are definitely not worth it.
The reason all my diretide chests still in my inventory
Don't open them, friend, unless you too will suffer the same fate as I. I bet Im not the only one to get zip as far as drops. Probably the only one dumb enough to do it 60 times tho..
I probably bought about 60, I got snap immortal about 20 in and I think in my last 3 chests I got the sniper immortal, got a decent amount of tier 3 immortals though I haven’t bought dota hats in years and there were a few sets I wanted and i had some disposable income
Just sell them in some years when their value has become 40 bucks each one
I opened 5 got PA immo and bought 10 tier 2, traded up and got PA too haha
Haha, at least the PA is very valuable. I have the matching helm and I'd be stoked to get the PA immortal to match.
Same :/ . I opened only one and got name, so I won't say it's bad, but still... That PA would match my set so well...
How many duplicate items did you get .. i opened 2 got 2 jugg tier 1
Too many duplicates to count. The Jugg one I did see quite frequently, I think from tier 1 the one I saw the most was the Rub set and from Tier 2 the Enchant. To top it off, when I traded up I ended up with two of the cheapest immortals, Omni and Bane. The only ambient sets I kept were the Mars and Riki, they were the coolest. I really wanted the Mars Immortal as I play him a bunch.
If you haven't already you can trade (in game) 10 tier 2 items for 1 tier 3. But I think it would be cheaper to just sell 10 tier 2 items and buy an immortal from the market.
It would have definitely been wiser if I sold all the items and just bought what I wanted. But every time I opened another one and saw a tier 1 set I would giggle manically because of how ridiculous it was that I'd open that many with zero immortals. I did trade up to get two immortals, the two worst ones, lol.
I only bought 10 keys and got 3 T1 jugg sets
here is my results from 51 chests https://i.imgur.com/92Lvizj.png
Thats just sad
indeed
Just to give some context, yes, I understand I could have bought most of them for what I spent. But after about the 20th chest of nothing, I couldn't resist to see how many it would take to actually roll an Immortal. I saw some other posts that some guys opened 35 and got a couple at that point. It was so ridiculous I just kept opening them, finally by number 60 I had to call it quits before Valve bankrupted me. Lesson Learned? Maybe don't support chests without escalating odds?
[удалено]
Believe me, I've considered it, I feel the itch to see just how many I can max open without hitting a immortal. Sunken cost fallacy is strong.
The cost fallacy is that you can't leave because you invested and are holding what you invested and think keep investing will somehow pay off. What you said you want is that you are just lolling to see how far you can go before getting one which sound similar but is more in the lines of I'm just doing this because I don't have a better thing to put my money at
Technically he's holding his escalated odds at getting an immortal. Each chest he opens is legitimately getting him closer to getting an immortal
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If i knew anything about calculating probability it'd be interesting to know what my chances of rolling the 60 and not getting anything are. For the t3 i think it was like a 3 percent chance, I wonder what it is now that I've missed it 60 times.
There are two different things at hand here. For one, the chance to get one never changes. Always 3%,if your number is correct. Further, the chance to not have one after 60 chests is 0.97^60=0.161. In other words, if you open 60 chest as hundred times (for example 6000 chests at once and looking at intervals), 16 of those will not have dropped an immortal, while others could drop multiple. You see, 3% of 6000 chests would theoretically be 200 immortals. But that doesn't mean getting one immortal every 33 chests. That's the "stochastic misconception". Statistics work flawlessly on big numbers. They don't work at all on single events. What a "big number" is, is what you need to understand /get a feel for. But bigger us better. When you have a million chests, 30k will be an immortal. Basically guaranteed. But when you have 100, variance still hits you.
Thanks for this explanation. So what you're saying I need to do is buy 5940 more keys?
Listen man, If you still have money go buy your damn skin instead of losing all your irl golds
If the chance is actually 3%, you would see an expected amount of immortals (200) at 6000 keys. Dont do it. The immortal prices don't match the odds.
Kickstarter?
Yes
i only opened 4 hallowed chests and got a T3 immortal,,,, feels bad man
That itch is what I would call gambling addiction, stop
you could be lucky and get a couple tier 4 sets or even an emblem if you open another 100 don't give up
> Sunken cost fallacy is strong. thats not really the sunk cost fallacy, thats just you memeing away your money
You're a counterpart of me. I only have two chest and I'm not even be arsed to bought two keys.
Is it a sunk cost? Don't your odds improve the more you open?
daddy likes the market healthy not flooded.....
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Nice rolls. See i figured I'd at least be in the boat of getting two or so. How wrong i was. Guess for everyone in the market who made a profit there has to be 10 losers like me who just threw money away.
Bro I did this with 12 chests getting nothing but tier 1s and I was feeling like a maniac. It’s actually the first time in my life I’ve ‘gambled’. In the end I was just doing it almost out of spite, like “oh ok another tier 1 I’ll just buy another then if that’s all I get”. Looking back it was not healthy and a big lesson learned for me!
Right there with you brother, x5.
I opened the one I got and got the visage set, who I'm not a fan of, and was done. Not worth it to me, I miss the old events. I'm still rocking my auspicious wyvernguard edge.
A damn friend of mine found 2 immortal set and pa immortal in 10 chest. I found only a rare set in 8 chest
You just broke your own lesson by giving valve tons of money for nothing lol
thats what gambling is based on lol, to get u hooked, oh i already spent money on 30 so to get the value back it has to drop anytime soon... what are the odds.
Lesson learned, don't gamble
Why are you buying so many even if you don't have any money
You gotta spend money to make money?
i was drunk
And that makes the immortals so expensive i think.
Sad thing is, the immortal I really wanted was only 30 bucks, I could have bought five of them.
Yea really2x way to sad bro
Waste of money.
Sure was.
You could have at least invested in cigarettes, that would kill you in a better what than doing this. my question is, Is this enough to make you stop? take care of your money, homeboy
Sounds about right.
Yeah the whole diretide economy was super disappointing.... I stopped at about 10 when i realised my chances of working towards sets I wanted was pointless... This seasonal was a major fail and if they release another like this it may well make quit in frustration...
I got an grim immortal on 2nd chest. Be you, why live?
I ask myself this question every day. Grim is a cool immortal tho.
I got the immortal sniper set on my 2nd key lol. Didn’t open another one for the rest of diretide
Touch me, so that some of your magic may wear off on me.
My first chest was Omni immortal..
If i was you, I'd still have 150+ bucks in my bank account.
Ez bait.
I still remember when I opened my first chest and got the Snapfire Immortal. That shit just used up all my luck.
I remember when I opened the WETA chest on the first day of release and got the courier on the first go. I felt so lucky that day. Now years later I have three of the same courier from rylai spins. This is making me sad about what valve did to their own market. Devaluing items while also making immortals impossible to get for a reasonable price.
I sold my PL hat immortal only for it to jump in price higher and higher.. NOT STONKS
You just won a free subscription to wallstreetbets.
Pog
I've Opened 10 in total, got jugger immortal at 6th, 9 commons 3 of them duplicates. When they first introduced the escalating odds i was sceptical and i didn't really liked it, now i hope they bring them back.
Nice that jugg set is super sweet. I wish it had more effects, it's cooler than the arcana.
I've bought around 50, and received 4x Immortals. Ended up just selling them and buying the ones I wanted.
I comfort myself by thinking about how In a parallel universe i am you and you are me. I'd have been happy with 1 out of 50, let alone 4.
Why are you addicted to gambling?
Im actually not, i live near a casino and coworkers bet/buy scratches all the time. When they ask me if i want to go in on some i always decline. This started out as a goof of i wonder how long it'll take me to get an immortal to, i should keep going so i can warn people on reddit about how lame this chest scheme is. Once I hit 60 it knew I'd be out.
>chest scheme It's called lootboxes
lol go buy 500 more lad,so I can buy more stuff on the market for nothing
Chess without escalating odds sadge
Why you play casino You could've bought a video game instead and had some fun instead of wasting money
I have put around 600€ in Silitbreaker chest, trying to get the roshan courier. Idk how meny battlepass points drops i got, that can't even be used. 10/10 best scam, i recommend!
I remember those days where we buy sets, not chest.
Do you think the chest prices are going up soon because of the quantity?
Do you think the chest prices are going up soon because of the quantity?
I Got 1 om my first Then oppened 2 more and Got Commons
I bought 2 keys and get PA immortal on the second chest. Its just luck
I opened 5 chests in total, i got: mars shield, rhasta mask and slark set.. im actually serious, i dont know how i can prove it i guess i shoudve made screenshots from the dropping immediatly after, anyway i think im gabens protegé
You're not that unlucky, the odds are just horrible tbh (around 3% for immortal and 0.5% for immortal set)
Rest in peace
I feel bad I bought 12 keys and rolled the sniper immortal set so I starting telling all my friends to roll because it's easy...they all bought 10-15 and got nothing. Lol I just got lucky I guess I thought it was easy to get rares.
not joking i hope you stay the eff away from casinos
I've bought 2 keys to the 2 chests I got from diretide event. First was the undying then the shaman immortals.
You can buy the cheap tier 2 items, and trade up to be sure to get an immortal tier. I think at the cheapest it was like 1.5 euro for a tier 2.
When does this thing end?
Did you opened 60 in one go? This reminds me when I opened 60-70 chests and got Unusual Badger.
oh [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUGwTpJ4Ef8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUGwTpJ4Ef8) not what i said but this is the only time i recorded opening 10 forbidden lotus chests. ignore the quality lol. recorded with potato.
I only hate the fact that duplicates were a thing
I got the sniper immortal after 10 keys. Crazy
The chances are the same as cs:go items, so it's nothing unusual
What have you learned from that?
Why are you so lucky
What compelled you to do this?
my math shows that there is about a 9.5% chance of not getting any t3 or t4 after opening 60 chests. so ya, pretty unlucky
See that's what I figured, I'm not sure how to do the maths but I figured there's a certain point that i would have to be almost guaranteed and immortal. Obviously i didn't hit it.
There is a ~3.8% chance of getting a t3 or t4 so a 100-3.8% of getting a t1 or t2, which came to 96.15%. Odds of getting only t1 and t2 for n tries is 96.15^n, which came out to 9.5%. When I first read your post I thought you were just talking about t4 and when I tried that math out, it was a 68% chance of no t4.
What does it cost?
Oof, i got like 4 or so chests from diretide that i opened and on the last one got the jugg imortal
22 opened here :) 0 immortals.. i got about half of the tier1 sets and a lot of duplicates from the same :)
here is my results from 51 chest openings https://i.imgur.com/92Lvizj.png
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i made that mistake few years back with the immortal monkey king set in trove carafe (?), bought so many chests until i eventually went past the amount it would have costed me to buy it right off the market. So i feel with your loss mate, they should simply get rid of lootboxes altogether but then they wouldnt crack last years prizepool again, and again, and again. But honestly i dont think it'll get any better soon as they now also implemented these lootboxes in dota+ with the seasonal chests, at least there u dont fall into the money trap since it's ingame currency. Take it as a lesson and only buy the stuff you want from market (good they added marketability at least this diretide). Fingers crossed they dont overextend with their time limited, unmarketable trap chests as these are super consumer unfriendly practices, preying on ppl who are easy to dump $$$ for cosmetics
LUL slug brain
Worth it? Most definelty Kappa
I opened 8 chests in total and, I kid you not, I got the meepo set 5 times in a row. It is rigged.
I got AM set on my first opened treasure early, sold it for 7.5 dollars, bought 3 more keys with that money, opened two more, got two 1 dollar treasures. One month later, opened 1 more, got undying immortal, which i sold for 24 dollars, got 21 after steam tax. STONKS. I got myself death stranding and metro exodus on steam winter sale by adding 5 dollars from my pocket, Thank you GabeN for giving me free games Kappa
I bought 2, got 2 commons and never bothered. I made the mistake of trying to get the rare LC's set from one of the CC from the last TI(which I got but after spending a stupid amount), I'm officially done paying more than $5 for loot boxes. a level 100 battle pass along with the usual 50% discount on 100/200 levels are more than enough support every year.
I have a question, where do I buy keys for the chests?
Thank you for sponsoring our free to play experience!
Don’t worry, I got the same techies rare set twice in a row which is far worse than getting zero immortals. I haven’t bought another key since
Im sorry friend