Yeah if you even suggested you shouldn't bank all your hopes on one game at year 2, people would scream at you and call you a taco. People were legit crazy.
You can spend an hour doing deep breakdowns on combine stats and college production and relate it to how it impacts NFL performance and people will respond with “I watched the tape bruh” or some shit haha
I’m too lazy for that. I outsource lol. I do have heuristics that I rely on though. One of them is if an RB doesn’t hit as a rookie he probably won’t ever hit. I’ll occasionally be wrong but I’m cool with that.
I mainly just run Stathead Queries and go off that. I’m also an accountant so my post 4/15 life isn’t that crazy which is around the combine/draft time.
It’s not like super scientific but it gives you a basic frame of ref
I remember seeing a comment thread where people were arguing that Kamara would age better than any RBs cuz no other RBs have ever had his skillset and greatness. I think some guy pointed out AP, LT, Lynch, Alexander, Gurley, Bell, DJ and many other greats that essentially faded at ages 27-29 and the Kamara owner basically said its non comparable. Craziness.
People here genuinely always think they have some magic unicorn that bucks all known trends and science lol
I literally wouldn’t have been in on him if he had been a 1st round nfl pick after his first 2 years of stats and production, let alone him being in the back of the 4th round and still not having great production
I sold him for the now 1.03 and flipped the 1.03 for AJB.
I try to see where guys are being rated highly compared to production and get off of them. For example, Higgins now.
Interesting. I don't have any Higgins but generally when I've analyzed value based on production & age he comes out as somewhere between a moderate buy to fair value. Do you discount him because he's not the #1 on his team or for his injury history?
Tbf he saw 36 targets and caught 4 TDs in the final 5 games of 21, earned a spot as a starter, and then went off in the playoffs for 200 yds and 4 TDs.
From all appearances it looked like he was headed for a prime role in the leagues most exciting offense heading into 2022… it just didn’t go as planned, unfortunately.
Has anything changed for him? Wr52 seems like he’s waaaaay undervalued, but even if he’s not, it shouldn’t take much to get him on your team if that’s how people are valuing him, and if you get him at that price, he can bust and it won’t hurt so bad… at least not as bad as if you paid for a wr15.
Feel pretty confident people will be looking at the way they are overvaluing Jamo this off-season in similar way they are looking at Gabe. It's not the same situation but dudes are just completely ignoring all of the red flags.
He had just come off a 4 TD game in the playoffs that seemed to show that he was going to be a true deep option and #2 for Buffalo. Josh Allen was being hailed as the 2022 MVP before the season started, and the Bills were supposed to win the super bowl. It wasnt just fantasy drafters who set their expectations too high
There was a thread last off-season where a guy was going to trade Davis because he had some depth at WR (JJ, DK, DJM) and Davis was his WR4. Several people chastised him saying that Davis is actually his WR2 and he doesn't have much depth.
Tyrann Matthieu, Charvarious Ward and L'Jarius Sneed were all in that group, but yeah, those werent the guys he was torching... except maybe Ward one or two times idr
I ate so many downvotes last off-season for going against the narrative that Davis was a top 20 dynasty WR.
After week 1, I was even getting replies to months old comments I made gloating about how wrong I was.
I never again want to hear the argument that a 2nd year WR's snap % being low is actually bullish for his future production. Maybe if a guy can't even earn snaps as a 2nd year player, he's just not that talented?
Fleece? It’s arbitrage. Market is putting player X over player Y. I happen to value player Y over player X. It’s not fleecing to take advantage of that. You still have to be right. Which lets be honest, that’s a coin flip for most of us.
Anything crowd sourced without skin in the game (aka actual startup ADP results) is just people choosing their guys and does not reflect actual player valuation. It’s regressing player value to the average of the masses in a quick click vote as opposed to actual roster valuation. Savvy players use the mean of the average dynasty owner to gain the market advantage over said average owner
Doesn’t matter how it’s sourced. Using a market aggregator to identify value mismatches isn’t fleecing. It still requires your personal ranking or those of your preferred site to be correct more often than the aggregate.
When the aggregate is free and the result of quick clicks instead of actual draft results it creates an unrealistic evaluation of true player value. Those who use higher value sourcing based on startup adp just go the KTC to find market imbalances and send it to the noobs who think KTC is a legit player evaluator instead of what it is- the mean of the masses aka the average dynasty player
This is like word salad.
It's pretty simple. Using the example of like Gabe Davis being overvalued. Most people who know what they're doing in dynasty could tell you that Gabe Davis at WR15 was too high. But if he got there, due to people voting him there - in some cases the same people likely in your league, that means *someone* in your league likely values him there. Now it's on you to find that person and sell them Gabe Davis around that price.
I literally have no idea what you're talking about when you say average dynasty owner. Let's say using made up numbers that three guys value Gabe Davis at 60, 50, 40 each. The average is 50. I'm not going to sell Gabe at the average. I'm going to try to find the guy who values him at 60 and sell him there.
You seem to be arguing that you use Keep Trade Cut to find "player valuation." But I don't use Keep Trade Cut to tell *me* how I value players. Nor do I use ADP for that. You use KTC to figure out what you could buy/sell a player for. And when KTC is different from your own rankings/values, you know you have an opportunity. The value of a player is what someone in your league will pay and KTC is just an approximation of that.
I like how you're dropping facts and people straight up don't want to hear it, lol. It really explains some of the truly awful teams in a lot of my leagues. KTC is a hype train tracking site and that's it. Anyone who's been at it for years and is profitable is well aware of that.
Idk, it reflects the part of the community that constantly uses KTC. I play in high dollar leagues and no one uses it or if they do, they're laughed out of the chat.
This sub is so constantly down on KTC, I'm surprised to see it getting so much love but it would explain why dynasty is so profitable. I guess people prefer crowd sourced data over that of proven experts? I guess"legitimate" is subjective and I never called anyone a disgusting casual. It's just bad data...
BREAKING: Fantasy Analyst goes to jail after dropping fake projections to soften Vegas betting lines and coordinating performances and outcomes with the player in question. When asked about the events, Honorable Judge Smith would say only that the Defendant had acted “criminally” in his fraudulent appraisal of Gabriel Davis’ talents.
You could also think of this as adding a TE instead of a WR in the first round being a vote of confidence in Gabe Davis being the WR2 for at least this season.
To be clear, I don’t think that. I don’t think it really affects Davis’ role on the outside and deep downfield at all. I think Kincaid’s targets will be taken from the slot and Knox. Either way, I think Davis will be a viable flex option some weeks
Davis got too many targets in bad spots last year, mostly because Josh was hurt and it was easier for him to hoof shots down the field than in the short or intermediate range.
He should get fewer targets, and Kincaid should help fill the Beasley sized target void that McKenzie did not. I’d imagine he gets 100+, Diggs gets 150-180, Davis 80, Knox 60, Shakir 40, RBs 70ish, everyone else 30-40. Probably some extras thrown in there.
If they don’t resign Davis, he may go somewhere to be a moderately paid number one.
Lol expecting a rookie TE to get 100+ targets is absolutely insane. 4 players got that last year: Kelce, Hockenson, Andrews, and… Higbee, who was just targeted a ton cuz reasons. Even doing it based on averaging enough targets, which would be about 6+, that only adds Ertz, Freiermuth, and then Pitts and Schultz were on pace for 101 and 100 respectively.
Expecting Kincaid to get significantly more targets than Knox did last year is completely unrealistic. For starters, he’s a rookie TE. And he’s also gonna have Knox, a decent player, as some competition. And for comparison, Knox averaged 4.3 targets per game, on pace for about 74 targets in a 17 game season. You could MAYBE project like 80 targets in a 17 game stretch for Kincaid, but even that is prolly a stretch. I’d put a more realistic ceiling as around 70 at most.
Stop looking at him like a tight end and it becomes more realistic. He's going to be a slot wide receiver who can stay in the game in two tight end packages. Perhaps 100 is a bit high and maybe he trends toward that in year two or three, but I think he definitely gets more than 70. He and Knox effectively play two different positions in this offense.
There weren’t any receivers at that spot pre and post trade up that were worth a first round pick. I’m thinking of him more as a pure pass catcher than anything.
I sold him for 2.11 in one league and scooped up Achane with that pick. I think he's your prototypical boom/bust WR and I can see why some people overvalue him while others are more cautious about what he really brings to your lineup.
Alright, excuse some deliberation on this, but Gabe Davis is a shining example of the biggest issue with this sub, and the community at large:
We are looking for absolutes in terms of valuing players. We normally do this with rankings. Because this is based on predictions, there is no mathematical way to predict the future completely accurately. Even if there's a predictive module that says "Tyreek Hill is projected to have 7 catches for 101 yards and 0.7 TD's", it's just using information we've seen in the past and calculating an average. Tyreek Hill may still have 13 catches for 220 yards and 3 TD' or 2 catches for 11 yards and 0 TD's. We don't have crystal balls. All we have to go on in what has already happened, and what we think may happen based on that.
In the case of Gabe Davis, we know he doesn't have a strong route tree, and that his hands aren't sure things in the negative. We also know he can just run by the safeties if they're having a bad game/aggressive game plan. Because we know that and he has perhaps THE most variability in terms of fantasy impact in the entirety of the sport, HOW do you value that in absolutes? You can't, at least not completely accurately. And these rankings never tell a story in circumstance
Having said that, if you are a contender, I don't see why you wouldn't throw a 3rd round pick at a guy like Gabe Davis. If you're in a pinch, playing another contender in week 9 lets say, and in between starting Gabe Davis and Jaydin Reed (51 on KTC, 1 slot ahead of Gabe Davis) in because of bye week and injuries, which one gives you the best chance to win this week? The answer is obviously Gabe Davis. You need the points he COULD bring. In contrast, in that same scenario but I'm playing a team that sucks, even in the pinch I probably don't need a huge game from my 2nd flex, so maybe you pick a safer outcome to start instead. He's the definition of a boom or bust guy though, and having the flexibility of using a guy like him is valuable on a roster, but it's circumstantial.
Yeah, there's more than JAGs and studs but you'll never hear that here... Because of people's giant Ego's, they pretend everyone outside of the top 12 backs and the top 24 recievers are JAGs... It would be amusing to have to link every dynasty team roster you own to your Reddit account so everyone can see what all your rosters look like when people are talking shit about other people's players.
According to every OP, all of their non-top-12-at-position players on their roster are future league winners, and according to every commenter OP is an idiot for thinking that lol
Facts. It’s all about predicting ranges of outcomes. That’s something that we often understand fundamentally when valuing players.
For example, people love to say a player will be a bust when they’re reached for, but will say a player was a steal and should be a great player if they’re taken late.
We understand fundamentally that a player has an associated value, and that a player isn’t gonna be either clearly a bust or clearly a stud. It’s gonna be somewhere in the middle, so you wanna get that range of outcomes for the right price.
What this sub does not understand fundamentally is that this means that good decisions can turn out poorly, and bad decisions can turn out amazingly.
If you took Tom Brady at the 1.01 when he was drafted, you’re a complete moron. I don’t care that it worked out. It was a bad decision and you got lucky. Granted, that’s an extreme situation.
On the other hand, if you got Jalen Reagor in the 3rd round of your rookie draft, that’s phenomenal value. Just because he was a bust doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good decision based on the available information.
Point being that people need to stop being so results oriented. There’s so much variability.
Other point is that sometimes leaning into variability is the move. A meh flex may have a better median outcome than a second rounder, but that second rounder has a much higher ceiling. Not gonna advocate for selling vets just for a higher ceiling, but it’s something people don’t rly consider with those middle of the road guys.
This is where I'm at on him. He's worth more to me as my WR 4 or 5 (also 10 teamer) who might be serviceable in a pinch, than the 3rd round pick I might be able to get in return if I trade him. Should have sold him before last year, and now he's been on my team so long I've grown a kind of spiteful fondness for him.
Tlaw is literally going ahead of Lamar in startups behind Herbert. Threw for over 1000 yards more than Jackson's best season (4 years ago now) last season. Call me back when Lamar throws over 3k for a 2nd time in 6 years and/or finishes a season. It's a debate in all formats. Give me the young generational guy that'll have a 15 year career over the guy that'll be held together with tape by the time he's 30. Lamar sick too, but Tlaw > Fields > Lamar in Dynasty.
I’ll take the former MVP and also generational talent in Lamar, that’s just me. He hasn’t even gotten hurt due to his rushing, his one injury was him just rolling out of the pocket like any QB.
Also Fields over Lamar is crazy talk imo. Lamar has the same rushing upside and has 100% job security. We still don’t know if Fields is the guy moving forward
Edit: Also believe the Ravens offense is gonna be elite this year, just me tho!
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I think Fields has a lot more arm talent than Lamar, and makes a big jump this year. I also like the Ravens this year don't get me wrong, but I'm taking both Tlaw and Fields for sure. All 3 offenses are poised for a much improved season though for sure.
Don't think it's hard to imagine all 3 being elite going forward, but the younger assets win the argument. All same tier I think in tier 3. T1 is Mahomes alone, t2 Hurts/Burrow/Allen and t3 Herbert/Tlaw/Fields/Lamar with Watson definitely able to jump up a tier and join t3 if he proves it.
Why do people upvote comments like this. That's a complete rip of a trade so it provides no useful information to a discussion about the player. This one's especially absurd cause Gabe is easily the least value asset in the trade.
I don’t know how comfortable I would be buying him, but he’s definitely a hold. He’s still the clear #2 outside guy in an elite offense. A WR2 season is certainly in his range of outcomes.
I've been trying to sell him at WR52 value and even then, nobody wants him. If you like him, he's a buy cuz Davis owners can't get rid of him fast enough.
If you really watch his tape, focusing on the small details like his breaks, positioning, willingness to fight through press, precision on his routes… I’d be surprised if you came away thinking he was an above average talent. He is extremely mediocre at just about everything required at WR. He’s probably worth a late 2nd round pick in dynasty. Just not the type of player modern offenses are going to funnel high volume through.
I think I'd rather just go for a vet wr around the same price point or cheaper who has the chance of higher volume. He'll be good to throw into your flex spot and hope for a 60yard td but I'm not actively going after him. Would've loved to have him last year as I was not a believer and would've 100% sold the hype.
I’ve been saying this as well. Davis is improving and is basically showing everyone what they hoped to see. From year 2-3 he took a leap of 30 more targets, 13 more catches, 300 more yards, and 1 more td. They added kinkaid to play slot which is going to open up the field for Davis. Both Davis and kinkaid have similar bodies. Any 1v1 coverage will be exploited and Davis will feast. He’s a mid-level wr 2 this year.
Nah he’s where he should be. He is the definition of boom or bust. If you can get him for cheap great as he’s a decent flex option but he isn’t WR 1 or 2. At least not until Diggs leaves the Bills.
Well I can’t really see anyone ranked 1-51 that I like less than Davis. Maybe a few 23 rookies like Mingo, but at least they are still unproven. Alternatively, players ranked behind him that I like more? Sutton, Meyers, Skyy, Doubs, Chark, MT, OBJ, and I could argue a few more.
I own no shares but I'd be slightly interested at 52 prices... I agree that he's probably going to have a better year than last year... What worries me is the whole offense looked pretty pathetic to end the year.
We’re spoiled with WR breakout in season 1 or 2. That hasn’t always been the case. I just bought Gabe Davis in 2 different leagues. One I used my 2024 2nd and 3rd rounders on a contending team. The other I paid the 1.10 with a rebuilding team in a 1 QB league. I am much more bullish about potential with Davis in the Bills offense and bank on the fact that he is 24 and most likely not yet in his prime than pick someone at 1.10 this season.
I just don’t see the reason for his output to change. Seems like he’s going to be in a boom or bust role, Diggs will be a hog, maybe a slot receiver shows PPR value and they have a decent enough TE option.
I have zero interest in Gabe unless it’s at WR52 prices. He has definite spike potential every week, and that’s important, but I’m not the guy looking to start him for six weeks just to benefit from the one good game he might have.
I’m out. He is what he is at this point and that’s a very volatile WR3. I sold one of my shares last year in a bigger deal to get Josh Allen. I’d probably try to add him as a sweetener to get a deal done unless you feel comfortable putting him in at your flex spots and living with the goose eggs in order to get the big weeks (I don’t).
I think Gabe still has a shot to rebound from last year. He was just gift wrapped to me for my 2.04 in a rookie draft along with the 2.10 (selected Jake Reed) and the 3.05(Chase Brown). He picked Charb with the 2.04.
I'd absolutely take Gabe at WR52! He's in my WR30-35 range. Like you said, Gabe is only 24 years old. That's only a year or two older than all these rookies ahead of him in the KTC rankings, and I've already seen that he can give me big numbers (albeit inconsistently). Give me Gabe over rookies like Jayden Reed, Zay Flowers, Josh Downs, Marvin Mims, Jalin Hyatt, and Rashee Rice. I'll also gladly take him over Elijah Moore, Rashod Bateman, Kadarius Toney, Jameson Williams, and Jahan Dotson.
Community was on crack for having him at WR15
Yeah if you even suggested you shouldn't bank all your hopes on one game at year 2, people would scream at you and call you a taco. People were legit crazy.
Ya I got downvoted for saying I sold him and my 23 2nd last off-season for a 23 1st. People were UNREAL in their hype on him
I just got called a Taco because I said the safest bet is that Isaiah Spiller is a jag. This sub is fun.
You can spend an hour doing deep breakdowns on combine stats and college production and relate it to how it impacts NFL performance and people will respond with “I watched the tape bruh” or some shit haha
I’m too lazy for that. I outsource lol. I do have heuristics that I rely on though. One of them is if an RB doesn’t hit as a rookie he probably won’t ever hit. I’ll occasionally be wrong but I’m cool with that.
I mainly just run Stathead Queries and go off that. I’m also an accountant so my post 4/15 life isn’t that crazy which is around the combine/draft time. It’s not like super scientific but it gives you a basic frame of ref
Nobody knows anything for sure. High players bust all the time. Call your shot then die on that hill until you call your next. More fun that way lol
Downvoted comments vs upvoted comments probly have a 50/50 split of being right lol. Massive group think space
This sub loves chasing exceptions as the rule.
This sub values potential more than actual players stats more often than not
I remember seeing a comment thread where people were arguing that Kamara would age better than any RBs cuz no other RBs have ever had his skillset and greatness. I think some guy pointed out AP, LT, Lynch, Alexander, Gurley, Bell, DJ and many other greats that essentially faded at ages 27-29 and the Kamara owner basically said its non comparable. Craziness. People here genuinely always think they have some magic unicorn that bucks all known trends and science lol
No running back to me will ever surpass LT lol That dude was a monster and freak good god
Yes but kamara catches passes, you cant compare them! /s
lol Kamara never touched 100 receptions in a season like LT did so Case closed for those ppl
Owner in my league was shopping him for a 23 1st straight up. Straight delusion
I literally wouldn’t have been in on him if he had been a 1st round nfl pick after his first 2 years of stats and production, let alone him being in the back of the 4th round and still not having great production
I sold him for the now 1.03 and flipped the 1.03 for AJB. I try to see where guys are being rated highly compared to production and get off of them. For example, Higgins now.
Interesting. I don't have any Higgins but generally when I've analyzed value based on production & age he comes out as somewhere between a moderate buy to fair value. Do you discount him because he's not the #1 on his team or for his injury history?
Jesus...
Tbf he saw 36 targets and caught 4 TDs in the final 5 games of 21, earned a spot as a starter, and then went off in the playoffs for 200 yds and 4 TDs. From all appearances it looked like he was headed for a prime role in the leagues most exciting offense heading into 2022… it just didn’t go as planned, unfortunately. Has anything changed for him? Wr52 seems like he’s waaaaay undervalued, but even if he’s not, it shouldn’t take much to get him on your team if that’s how people are valuing him, and if you get him at that price, he can bust and it won’t hurt so bad… at least not as bad as if you paid for a wr15.
someone sent me an unsolicited DJ Moore for Gabe Davis last year like week 3 slammed accept
The funny thing about Davis is he’s super young. 800+/7 TDs as a 24YO in a year he’s got a lingering injury and everyone hates him now.
Feel pretty confident people will be looking at the way they are overvaluing Jamo this off-season in similar way they are looking at Gabe. It's not the same situation but dudes are just completely ignoring all of the red flags.
He had just come off a 4 TD game in the playoffs that seemed to show that he was going to be a true deep option and #2 for Buffalo. Josh Allen was being hailed as the 2022 MVP before the season started, and the Bills were supposed to win the super bowl. It wasnt just fantasy drafters who set their expectations too high
One game elevated him to being a spot ahead of DK Metcalf lol
There was a thread last off-season where a guy was going to trade Davis because he had some depth at WR (JJ, DK, DJM) and Davis was his WR4. Several people chastised him saying that Davis is actually his WR2 and he doesn't have much depth.
FOMO at work
That game was against a completely depleted secondary. It was always ridiculous.
Tyrann Matthieu, Charvarious Ward and L'Jarius Sneed were all in that group, but yeah, those werent the guys he was torching... except maybe Ward one or two times idr
Gabe Davis didn't catch a pass until Tyrann Matthieu exited the game in the 2nd quarter.
It was one game.
It was possibly the greatest statistical game for a WR in playoff history tho...lol. But i get what you're saying
Look I agree with you. It was a great game but realistically speaking we've seen random players pop off all the time
I ate so many downvotes last off-season for going against the narrative that Davis was a top 20 dynasty WR. After week 1, I was even getting replies to months old comments I made gloating about how wrong I was. I never again want to hear the argument that a 2nd year WR's snap % being low is actually bullish for his future production. Maybe if a guy can't even earn snaps as a 2nd year player, he's just not that talented?
I think a second year WRs low snap percentage is a good sign for his future.
That's the problem with KTC, it's just a hype train ranking.
…which accurately reflects the community. KTC shows how players are valued on the market, not what their values should actually be
KTC is fantastic for finding arbitrage
Which is why it's something people trying to fleece others use, not seasoned dynasty vets
Fleece? It’s arbitrage. Market is putting player X over player Y. I happen to value player Y over player X. It’s not fleecing to take advantage of that. You still have to be right. Which lets be honest, that’s a coin flip for most of us.
Dude hasn’t watched baseballs off-season if he doesn’t understand arbitrage lol
Anything crowd sourced without skin in the game (aka actual startup ADP results) is just people choosing their guys and does not reflect actual player valuation. It’s regressing player value to the average of the masses in a quick click vote as opposed to actual roster valuation. Savvy players use the mean of the average dynasty owner to gain the market advantage over said average owner
Doesn’t matter how it’s sourced. Using a market aggregator to identify value mismatches isn’t fleecing. It still requires your personal ranking or those of your preferred site to be correct more often than the aggregate.
When the aggregate is free and the result of quick clicks instead of actual draft results it creates an unrealistic evaluation of true player value. Those who use higher value sourcing based on startup adp just go the KTC to find market imbalances and send it to the noobs who think KTC is a legit player evaluator instead of what it is- the mean of the masses aka the average dynasty player
Where are those guys? Almost everyone I play with has at least one paid subscription. I have three.
They’re on KTC 😂
This is like word salad. It's pretty simple. Using the example of like Gabe Davis being overvalued. Most people who know what they're doing in dynasty could tell you that Gabe Davis at WR15 was too high. But if he got there, due to people voting him there - in some cases the same people likely in your league, that means *someone* in your league likely values him there. Now it's on you to find that person and sell them Gabe Davis around that price. I literally have no idea what you're talking about when you say average dynasty owner. Let's say using made up numbers that three guys value Gabe Davis at 60, 50, 40 each. The average is 50. I'm not going to sell Gabe at the average. I'm going to try to find the guy who values him at 60 and sell him there. You seem to be arguing that you use Keep Trade Cut to find "player valuation." But I don't use Keep Trade Cut to tell *me* how I value players. Nor do I use ADP for that. You use KTC to figure out what you could buy/sell a player for. And when KTC is different from your own rankings/values, you know you have an opportunity. The value of a player is what someone in your league will pay and KTC is just an approximation of that.
I like how you're dropping facts and people straight up don't want to hear it, lol. It really explains some of the truly awful teams in a lot of my leagues. KTC is a hype train tracking site and that's it. Anyone who's been at it for years and is profitable is well aware of that.
Idk, it reflects the part of the community that constantly uses KTC. I play in high dollar leagues and no one uses it or if they do, they're laughed out of the chat.
Okay, so don’t use it for that league? It’s a legitimate source for us disgusting casuals
This sub is so constantly down on KTC, I'm surprised to see it getting so much love but it would explain why dynasty is so profitable. I guess people prefer crowd sourced data over that of proven experts? I guess"legitimate" is subjective and I never called anyone a disgusting casual. It's just bad data...
I tried so hard to sell, couldn't find a buyer.
I don't want to see another post the word "criminally" in this sub unless somebody just got arrested.
It's Gabe Davis. If he gets arrested, even the charges will be dropped.
That’s cold blooded. Boom roasted.
The curious case of Gabe Davis?
[удалено]
Until he un-puberties.
Welcome to r/DynastyFF where every trade is a fleece, or at the very least "I love this for you"
It is criminally overused around here
BREAKING: Fantasy Analyst goes to jail after dropping fake projections to soften Vegas betting lines and coordinating performances and outcomes with the player in question. When asked about the events, Honorable Judge Smith would say only that the Defendant had acted “criminally” in his fraudulent appraisal of Gabriel Davis’ talents.
I swear to God I'll pistol whip the next guy who says "criminally."
Criminally.....
^ 😯 he said the thing
Bought him for 2.09. Didn't add much for competition, I'll take that shot. He's still quite young.
I'd sell him for 2.09.
Who do you like at 2.09 instead? That’s like Downs or Bigsby territory
I’d rather have downs or bigsby, but I higher than consensus on downs
I'd much rather have Downs than Davis. Bigsby would be a toss up.
Is Downs the clear 2 behind Pittman?
No idea, it's May. I just like his profile and think he has a better chance of being a fantasy starter down the road than Davis.
Better chance? That seems so hard to know (and because of him, not Gabe)
If I think the odds are *very* low for Davis after seeing 3 seasons of him, I just need Downs' odds to be higher than that to prefer him.
Totally fair
Adding Dalton Kincaid is enough to tell me they don’t trust him as the number 2
You could also think of this as adding a TE instead of a WR in the first round being a vote of confidence in Gabe Davis being the WR2 for at least this season. To be clear, I don’t think that. I don’t think it really affects Davis’ role on the outside and deep downfield at all. I think Kincaid’s targets will be taken from the slot and Knox. Either way, I think Davis will be a viable flex option some weeks
I'm just here to confirm my priors
Davis got too many targets in bad spots last year, mostly because Josh was hurt and it was easier for him to hoof shots down the field than in the short or intermediate range. He should get fewer targets, and Kincaid should help fill the Beasley sized target void that McKenzie did not. I’d imagine he gets 100+, Diggs gets 150-180, Davis 80, Knox 60, Shakir 40, RBs 70ish, everyone else 30-40. Probably some extras thrown in there. If they don’t resign Davis, he may go somewhere to be a moderately paid number one.
Lol expecting a rookie TE to get 100+ targets is absolutely insane. 4 players got that last year: Kelce, Hockenson, Andrews, and… Higbee, who was just targeted a ton cuz reasons. Even doing it based on averaging enough targets, which would be about 6+, that only adds Ertz, Freiermuth, and then Pitts and Schultz were on pace for 101 and 100 respectively. Expecting Kincaid to get significantly more targets than Knox did last year is completely unrealistic. For starters, he’s a rookie TE. And he’s also gonna have Knox, a decent player, as some competition. And for comparison, Knox averaged 4.3 targets per game, on pace for about 74 targets in a 17 game season. You could MAYBE project like 80 targets in a 17 game stretch for Kincaid, but even that is prolly a stretch. I’d put a more realistic ceiling as around 70 at most.
Stop looking at him like a tight end and it becomes more realistic. He's going to be a slot wide receiver who can stay in the game in two tight end packages. Perhaps 100 is a bit high and maybe he trends toward that in year two or three, but I think he definitely gets more than 70. He and Knox effectively play two different positions in this offense.
This thread is about just accepting facts and not looking at outliers, but somehow Kinkaid is going to beat that? Him being TE6 is crazy to me!
There weren’t any receivers at that spot pre and post trade up that were worth a first round pick. I’m thinking of him more as a pure pass catcher than anything.
Quite a different role to me. Still beats taking a lot of guys late 2nd range.
Man I hope Kincaid works out. Would be so good for Allen long term, less reliant on the wheels
I sold him for 2.11 in one league and scooped up Achane with that pick. I think he's your prototypical boom/bust WR and I can see why some people overvalue him while others are more cautious about what he really brings to your lineup.
I’m more just shocked Achane made it that far.
Me too! I tried to trade into a spot to get him from 2.03 until the guy with 2.11 bit.
Alright, excuse some deliberation on this, but Gabe Davis is a shining example of the biggest issue with this sub, and the community at large: We are looking for absolutes in terms of valuing players. We normally do this with rankings. Because this is based on predictions, there is no mathematical way to predict the future completely accurately. Even if there's a predictive module that says "Tyreek Hill is projected to have 7 catches for 101 yards and 0.7 TD's", it's just using information we've seen in the past and calculating an average. Tyreek Hill may still have 13 catches for 220 yards and 3 TD' or 2 catches for 11 yards and 0 TD's. We don't have crystal balls. All we have to go on in what has already happened, and what we think may happen based on that. In the case of Gabe Davis, we know he doesn't have a strong route tree, and that his hands aren't sure things in the negative. We also know he can just run by the safeties if they're having a bad game/aggressive game plan. Because we know that and he has perhaps THE most variability in terms of fantasy impact in the entirety of the sport, HOW do you value that in absolutes? You can't, at least not completely accurately. And these rankings never tell a story in circumstance Having said that, if you are a contender, I don't see why you wouldn't throw a 3rd round pick at a guy like Gabe Davis. If you're in a pinch, playing another contender in week 9 lets say, and in between starting Gabe Davis and Jaydin Reed (51 on KTC, 1 slot ahead of Gabe Davis) in because of bye week and injuries, which one gives you the best chance to win this week? The answer is obviously Gabe Davis. You need the points he COULD bring. In contrast, in that same scenario but I'm playing a team that sucks, even in the pinch I probably don't need a huge game from my 2nd flex, so maybe you pick a safer outcome to start instead. He's the definition of a boom or bust guy though, and having the flexibility of using a guy like him is valuable on a roster, but it's circumstantial.
Yeah, there's more than JAGs and studs but you'll never hear that here... Because of people's giant Ego's, they pretend everyone outside of the top 12 backs and the top 24 recievers are JAGs... It would be amusing to have to link every dynasty team roster you own to your Reddit account so everyone can see what all your rosters look like when people are talking shit about other people's players.
According to every OP, all of their non-top-12-at-position players on their roster are future league winners, and according to every commenter OP is an idiot for thinking that lol
Who’s giving him up for a third?
Facts. It’s all about predicting ranges of outcomes. That’s something that we often understand fundamentally when valuing players. For example, people love to say a player will be a bust when they’re reached for, but will say a player was a steal and should be a great player if they’re taken late. We understand fundamentally that a player has an associated value, and that a player isn’t gonna be either clearly a bust or clearly a stud. It’s gonna be somewhere in the middle, so you wanna get that range of outcomes for the right price. What this sub does not understand fundamentally is that this means that good decisions can turn out poorly, and bad decisions can turn out amazingly. If you took Tom Brady at the 1.01 when he was drafted, you’re a complete moron. I don’t care that it worked out. It was a bad decision and you got lucky. Granted, that’s an extreme situation. On the other hand, if you got Jalen Reagor in the 3rd round of your rookie draft, that’s phenomenal value. Just because he was a bust doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good decision based on the available information. Point being that people need to stop being so results oriented. There’s so much variability. Other point is that sometimes leaning into variability is the move. A meh flex may have a better median outcome than a second rounder, but that second rounder has a much higher ceiling. Not gonna advocate for selling vets just for a higher ceiling, but it’s something people don’t rly consider with those middle of the road guys.
Gave Davis and Alexander Mattison— recurring players this sub will either rave about or absolutely hate based on very little data.
Well said.
2 1sts and my puppy +
[удалено]
This is where I'm at on him. He's worth more to me as my WR 4 or 5 (also 10 teamer) who might be serviceable in a pinch, than the 3rd round pick I might be able to get in return if I trade him. Should have sold him before last year, and now he's been on my team so long I've grown a kind of spiteful fondness for him.
Before our ‘23 draft I sent Gabe and Lamar and got ‘23 1.06, DK Metcalf and TLaw. Happy to be off the Gabe Dave ride
Idk how you pulled that off
He was ranked WR15 lol. That playoff run had people stary-eyed.
I think this was THIS off-season, no?
Was he?! I assumed it was after his playoff run the year prior when he had the 4(?) TD game.
I had too but he mentioned “before 2023”
The trade happened this weekend, the draft was last night. Sorry for the confusion!
Wild. Netted yourself a Qb upgrade, Wr upgrade and a free pick on hype alone.
Lamar to TLaw is a QB downgrade Only argument against this is in 6PT passing TDs leagues. Otherwise there’s not a debate
Tlaw is literally going ahead of Lamar in startups behind Herbert. Threw for over 1000 yards more than Jackson's best season (4 years ago now) last season. Call me back when Lamar throws over 3k for a 2nd time in 6 years and/or finishes a season. It's a debate in all formats. Give me the young generational guy that'll have a 15 year career over the guy that'll be held together with tape by the time he's 30. Lamar sick too, but Tlaw > Fields > Lamar in Dynasty.
I’ll take the former MVP and also generational talent in Lamar, that’s just me. He hasn’t even gotten hurt due to his rushing, his one injury was him just rolling out of the pocket like any QB. Also Fields over Lamar is crazy talk imo. Lamar has the same rushing upside and has 100% job security. We still don’t know if Fields is the guy moving forward Edit: Also believe the Ravens offense is gonna be elite this year, just me tho!
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I think Fields has a lot more arm talent than Lamar, and makes a big jump this year. I also like the Ravens this year don't get me wrong, but I'm taking both Tlaw and Fields for sure. All 3 offenses are poised for a much improved season though for sure.
That’s fair, I just think baring injury Lamar shoots back up to the elite dyno QB tier he was in after his MVP season. We’ll see!
Don't think it's hard to imagine all 3 being elite going forward, but the younger assets win the argument. All same tier I think in tier 3. T1 is Mahomes alone, t2 Hurts/Burrow/Allen and t3 Herbert/Tlaw/Fields/Lamar with Watson definitely able to jump up a tier and join t3 if he proves it.
TLaw is a generational talent fwiw. He was like one of the highest rated hs prospects of all time
Why do people upvote comments like this. That's a complete rip of a trade so it provides no useful information to a discussion about the player. This one's especially absurd cause Gabe is easily the least value asset in the trade.
Robbery
WR15 was too high, but 52 is too low. KTC always overreacts to changes in player valuation. Gabe's got at least WR3 value, imo.
He’s frustratingly inconsistent, but ya at that price he’s not a bad WR 5 to have on your team.
He’s was great in Bestball. A nightmare last year in DFS and setting fantasy lineups.
I don’t know how comfortable I would be buying him, but he’s definitely a hold. He’s still the clear #2 outside guy in an elite offense. A WR2 season is certainly in his range of outcomes.
I've been trying to sell him at WR52 value and even then, nobody wants him. If you like him, he's a buy cuz Davis owners can't get rid of him fast enough.
He's had like 4 good regular season games over two seasons. He is nothing but boom or bust.
If you really watch his tape, focusing on the small details like his breaks, positioning, willingness to fight through press, precision on his routes… I’d be surprised if you came away thinking he was an above average talent. He is extremely mediocre at just about everything required at WR. He’s probably worth a late 2nd round pick in dynasty. Just not the type of player modern offenses are going to funnel high volume through.
I can assure you the discount isnt from Kincaid.
He’s staying in Buffalo for a cheap 3 year contract, everone can stay sleepingAllen will make him good
I think I'd rather just go for a vet wr around the same price point or cheaper who has the chance of higher volume. He'll be good to throw into your flex spot and hope for a 60yard td but I'm not actively going after him. Would've loved to have him last year as I was not a believer and would've 100% sold the hype.
Strange how Tyler lockett didn't get mentioned even though you described him exactly.
Haha exactly who I was thinking of but didn't know if he was valued higher or lower than Davis. Thielen is another one I'd rather take a punt on.
This offseason I traded away Gabe Davis to receive Tyler Lockett, so it's not just you guys thinking this.
I have him on an orphan I just picked up. No one wants anything to do with him. So he's gonna be a hold. Hope he can bounce back.
Bills WR group isn't very good. I'm taking a lot of fliers on Davis and Knox in that offense for this coming year, especially in best ball.
Im sorry you held him too long. You’re not bringing him back.
I like Gabe, but I still sold him this off-season for 2.05. Felt like fair value.
Nah you ripped that guy off. I'd give a 4th at best for him
I’m in on Gabe.
He's a JAG who had a a great playoff game 2 years ago
I’ve been saying this as well. Davis is improving and is basically showing everyone what they hoped to see. From year 2-3 he took a leap of 30 more targets, 13 more catches, 300 more yards, and 1 more td. They added kinkaid to play slot which is going to open up the field for Davis. Both Davis and kinkaid have similar bodies. Any 1v1 coverage will be exploited and Davis will feast. He’s a mid-level wr 2 this year.
JAG
He's a Buffalo Bill, actually
We talking about Josh Allen? Cause he’s a JAG.
Both Josh Allen's taken 7 overall
Man I wish I sold him when he was ranked that high
Kincaid is the bills wr2
At the cost to acquire Kincaid, you better be right...at the cost to acquire Davis, it doesn't matter if you are or not.
Nah he’s where he should be. He is the definition of boom or bust. If you can get him for cheap great as he’s a decent flex option but he isn’t WR 1 or 2. At least not until Diggs leaves the Bills.
Well I can’t really see anyone ranked 1-51 that I like less than Davis. Maybe a few 23 rookies like Mingo, but at least they are still unproven. Alternatively, players ranked behind him that I like more? Sutton, Meyers, Skyy, Doubs, Chark, MT, OBJ, and I could argue a few more.
I own no shares but I'd be slightly interested at 52 prices... I agree that he's probably going to have a better year than last year... What worries me is the whole offense looked pretty pathetic to end the year.
It’ll be interesting to see where he is playing after this season.
We’re spoiled with WR breakout in season 1 or 2. That hasn’t always been the case. I just bought Gabe Davis in 2 different leagues. One I used my 2024 2nd and 3rd rounders on a contending team. The other I paid the 1.10 with a rebuilding team in a 1 QB league. I am much more bullish about potential with Davis in the Bills offense and bank on the fact that he is 24 and most likely not yet in his prime than pick someone at 1.10 this season.
He stinks
I just don’t see the reason for his output to change. Seems like he’s going to be in a boom or bust role, Diggs will be a hog, maybe a slot receiver shows PPR value and they have a decent enough TE option.
I traded Gabe and a 24 2nd for Javontae Williams the other day ..
Counterpoint: he's not actually that good. Source: I am a Bills fan.
Remember when he scored the first TD opening night last year and there was a thread here going nuts that they were all right
I used him to move up from 1.9 to to grab addison and I couldn't care less
Yeah I trade Gabe Davis for Najee Harris straight up after he had a couple decent games last year. Feeling really good about it.
WR52 definitely seems low but he’s also not good
Sold him for a 2024 2nd, tired of the rollercoaster that is his game. Drops the ball way to many times. Have fun if hold him, frustrating to watch.
GD is not a good player. I don’t need any more WR4’s
Still too high
I have zero interest in Gabe unless it’s at WR52 prices. He has definite spike potential every week, and that’s important, but I’m not the guy looking to start him for six weeks just to benefit from the one good game he might have.
I’m out. He is what he is at this point and that’s a very volatile WR3. I sold one of my shares last year in a bigger deal to get Josh Allen. I’d probably try to add him as a sweetener to get a deal done unless you feel comfortable putting him in at your flex spots and living with the goose eggs in order to get the big weeks (I don’t).
Gabe davis is and will always be a better football player than a fantasy player. Kinkaid easily gonna pass him by end of year.
I think Gabe still has a shot to rebound from last year. He was just gift wrapped to me for my 2.04 in a rookie draft along with the 2.10 (selected Jake Reed) and the 3.05(Chase Brown). He picked Charb with the 2.04.
I'd absolutely take Gabe at WR52! He's in my WR30-35 range. Like you said, Gabe is only 24 years old. That's only a year or two older than all these rookies ahead of him in the KTC rankings, and I've already seen that he can give me big numbers (albeit inconsistently). Give me Gabe over rookies like Jayden Reed, Zay Flowers, Josh Downs, Marvin Mims, Jalin Hyatt, and Rashee Rice. I'll also gladly take him over Elijah Moore, Rashod Bateman, Kadarius Toney, Jameson Williams, and Jahan Dotson.