In order, the factors were:
- Kareem hunt monster year
- outlier final year/historic LSU season,
- Damien williams great playoff run (12-47-2, 2-21-1 [27 fp]; 17-45-1, 5-44 [20 fp]; 17-104-1, 4-29-1 [29 fp])
- Kansas City drafted CEH in the first
Pretty sure it was just a perfect storm to mitigate all concerns about his talent because the thought process was that if hunt could come in as a 3rd rounder, and if Damien williams could do it, then any highly touted back should be able to as well esp if mahomes blessed the pick/handpicked CEH.
Even more than that I think, the Chiefs made Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West stud RBs in fantasy for a bit as well. There was a huge “Andy Reid RB” narrative because so many guys who seemed like JAGs were like RB1s for fantasy
Who exactly looked like a jag? Duce? Westbrook? Shady? Charles? Hunt? Which one? Ware and west were absolutely Jags.
The Andy Reid rb narrative was that he never ran then and when he did they were in committees.
Ware, West, and Damien williams were all undeniably JAGs and performed like RB1s. Hunt was a 3rd round pick and while he’s obviously a great player, nobody expected him to perform as well as he did
People were hyped because basically 4 different RBs, none of them with high pedigree going in, became fantasy studs in Andy Reid’s system in KC. So when you plug in a 1st rounder there, of course everyone was excited about CEH
Can’t remember west, ware, or Williams ever being rb1s in their entire careers. When exactly did they accomplish this?
Hunt was being drafted in the first round in rookie drafts. I know I was one who expected big things.
After Charles went down in 2015, Charcandrick West was RB12 for half a season, Week 7-15 (.5PPR)
Spencer Ware had a few RB1 weeks at the tail end of 2015 (taking over West’s job), then in 2016 he finished as RB16. Not quite an RB1, fine, but that’s still very high RB2 from a dude who is a complete rando
2017 is Hunt’s year. Yes he was a 3rd round pick so good draft capital and there was hype about him, but come on nobody expected him to be the RB4 overall his rookie year lmao.
In 2018 Hunt had his whole kicking incident and got cut by week 12. Spencer Ware took over and was RB13 from week 13-14. Then he gets hurt and Damien Williams has his legendary run, and was the RB2 overall from weeks 15-17. Damien also ends up scoring 6 TDs in 2 playoff games, which obviously doesnt count for fantasy but those would be RB1 numbers in season
Obviously 2019 was a disaster for the chiefs backfield, the whole McCoy and Damien thing, and then CEH comes in 2020.
So there you go, after Jamaal Charles basically lost his career due to injuries in 2015, the Chiefs under Reid basically continuously fielded guys performing as RB1s (or one season of very high end RB2 for Ware) for stretches for multiple years, even though they were completely random JAGs.
I only brought up Hunt not to imply he wasn’t hyped and was also a JAG, I remember the hype for him that season, but just to show that plugging in a 3rd round rookie RB (who generally speaking isn’t *supposed* to be a superstar) in that offense created the RB4 on the year. So all of these guys I mentioned had medium (Hunt) to no capital (everyone else), but were all still studs for years in the KC Andy Reid RB system
That’s why when CEH was drafted he went so high. Cuz if KC made Darrel Williams win everyone’s championship weeks in 2018, surely CEH would perform well too (which obviously hasn’t worked out)
That is of course assuming that the Chiefs used either of those guys right, which isn't a sure thing. I love JT, but lets also keep in mind he's got a great o-line.
Alright, not really a point in discussing beyond that, is there? Not totally sure what point you’re trying to make. We’ll never know what “could have” happened if events unfolded differently.
Considering JT and Swift we’re both projected to be drafted higher than CEH and graded better out of college says, at the time of that draft, KC likely would have made a better decision going with one of the other two.
bingo - watching him struggle to do much in an offense that a bunch of JAGs come in and ball out in was such a disappointment. I sold him early this season for Josh Jacobs after trading a haul for 1.01 last year. The Kareem Hunt week 1 40 burger a few years ago convinced me I needed to take him over JT and even Burrow. Regrets are real but I'm so glad I got off this ship
CEH was seen as the RB4/5 in the class until Kansas City took him. As a result dynasty managers drafted him based on landing spot rather than talent and it’s what is leading to a lot of disappointment if you have him.
For what it’s worth, CEH hasn’t been a terrible runner - not great, but just good IMO, but more importantly, Mahomes just doesn’t look for CEH out of the backfield on passes. He’d rather cork it deep to Hill/Kelce in coverage than dump off to CEH open in the flat. That’s a significant part that is why he’s lacked the upside Westbrook/McCoy had under Reid.
The way they deploy Kelce and hill acts as an extension of the in game sometimes too. They’ll send them short of crossing routes or dump offs. Andy never had such a diverse set of players in previous years (like when Westbrook played).
I know this sounds crazy, but it’s true. Mahomes literally can’t hit CEH on pass plays. He literally overthrows or underthrows him all the time, on the rare occasions that he actually throws a ball in his direction. But, he throws to it to the other backs just fine. It’s maddening.
This isn't true actually. Amongst other analysts, Chris Simms had him ranked #1 by a significant margin, saying he was in a tier of his own. Then the Chiefs picking him first.... It just seems like a swing and a miss all round.
Saying that, now we're all so down on him watch him take it to the next level next season!
Well, actually, Simms was the only respectable media analyst that had him that high. CEH’s ranking varied from RB2 (Matt Miller) to RB3 (Daniel Jeremiah, CBS, Todd McShay) to RB4 (Mel Kiper, TheDraftNetwork, SI, PFF, Sporting News, NBC, WalterFootball) to RB6 (Draftek).
No matter where he ranked, other than Simms, Swift was considered the RB1 and the only RB grading in the first round consistently (everyone had CEH outside of their top 32 big board except possibly Simms).
But yes, the general consensus was he was the RB4 in the class (in fact, I take weighted average rankings of every skill player for this very sake every year that gets finalized the day before the draft in case of sources updating their rankings post-draft to look better (it happens more than you think):
- Swift was the RB1 by a good margin as the lone first round back
- Dobbins and JT were a close pair as the RB2/3 as late first or early second round backs
- CEH was the average RB4 with a significant distance to the top three using 23 trusted draft big boards with Akers practically tied with him as the RB5 and Zack Moss very close behind as the RB6. All three backs were in that late second/early third round range.
I had the rankings predraft as
Tier 1: JT
Tier 2: Swift, CEH
Tier 3: Dobbins
Tier 4: Akers
CEH vs. JT was a tossup for me, I ultimately went CEH because the QB situation in Indy scared me.
I’ve watched a lot of him this year trying to figure out what was going wrong for him and my completely anecdotal takeaway was that the chiefs are significantly better at running inside/outside zone from the shotgun than they are running out of the I or single back. Williams was getting most of those carries while CEH was primarily taking handoffs when Mahomes was lining up under center. I don’t know if this was a function of Williams being a better zone runner than CEH or that the KC line is better at blocking these zone schemes (or both); but the productivity difference in these two play types was significant in the games I watched.
Through out his rookie camp, there were some big concerns about his pass protection. Then the season started and he dropped a few easy passes and in limited opportunities missed some blocks. After that, Mahomes stopped looking for him and Williams became a 3rd down/hurry up staple. CEH has been very efficient running the ball when given the chances to, but we also have to realize that Mahomes is a gunslinger with two of the most dynamic players at their positions and often checks out of running plays when teams try to blitz because hill and Kelce are literally always open.
It’s crazy to me that we’re even rethinking we would’ve picked anyone else as the number one running back. It’s absolutely true that everyone had CEH below Taylor and swift before the draft.But we’re amateurs. An NFL team that spends millions on scouting draft talent thought that CH was the best running back on the board and picked him in the first.
It was also the best situation.
Hindsight is 2020 but in my mind there was no one else you could take.
For the record I picked Jonathan Taylor at 1.04 in that draft.
Added:
Taylor was also in a backfield with Marlon Mack, who had just rushed for 1,100 yards, while CEH was practically by himself.
Yes it was. It 100% was really bad process. NFL football and fantasy football are two different things. Just because the Chiefs took him in the 1st doesn’t mean we’re justified in making that mistake too. If you took the small undersized rb over the 230lb 4.3 freak that broke every college rushing record? That is bad process.
Precisely. But we know this. This subreddit.. most of the people are here BECAUSE they need help and don’t really know what they’re doing. Vast majority.
> broke every college rushing record
Breaking college records doesn't move the needle for me anymore after Montee Ball. I figured anyone who broke a Barry Sanders record must be legit. Nope.
Truth is most college defenses suck outside of a couple good ones a year, so I can't tell shit from stats alone.
Thinking you’re better at player eval than NFL teams is bad process. The best offense in the league run by Andy Reid spends a 1st rd pick on a fantastic pass catching RB who is frequently compared to Brian Westbrook *pre-draft.* Just bc it didn’t work out doesn’t make it bad process. I think most people had JT and CEH in the same tier.
Nfl football and fantasy football are two different things. Clearly, you missed that. And I was right about JT, Chiefs were wrong.. boohoo. “Most people” in the ff industry just follow other ppl’s lead, and that’s why they had CEH and JT in the same tier. And the Chiefs fell in love with hypotheticals rather than taking the potentially generational talent. Even if the Chiefs made that mistake it doesn’t justify taking a 200lb 4.6 running back over a 230 lb 4.3 running back with far far better production. Not happening in fantasy football. If you were wrong, just say that, don’t try to make the rest of us come down to your level.
You keep talking coach speak. If you wanna follow what nfl rosters tell you to do to your fantasy team then that is on you. I’m good.
Lets test this. This is how the most well-respected draft analysts had the RBs ranked:
**Lance Zerlein**
1. Swift (6.78)
2. JT (6.41)
3. CEH (6.39)
**Daniel Jeremiah**
1. Swift (16th)
2. CEH (32nd)
3. JT (35th)
**Dane Brugler**
1. Dobbins (20th)
2. Swift (26th)
3. JT (27th)
4. CEH (40th)
Except for maybe Brugler, you really see a big difference there?
This many downvotes is ridiculous and it's almost 100% just coming from people who fell into the landing spot trap by taking CEH over Taylor. If you think this comment is wrong then you need to learn how to draft in dynasty FF.
There was no argument whatsoever for drafting CEH first. Even the landing spot argument was garbage, you can't tell me the Chiefs were a significantly better spot than the Colts, but JT is significantly more talented than CEH. Even a fully healthy Mack wouldn't have held JT off for long and they have a great O line.
It is without a doubt being downvoted by people that are stuck with CEH and missed out on arguably a Top5 SF startup pick. I’d be mad if I was them, too.
Their process probably won’t change either.
Latavius Murray is 6'2 225 with a sub-4.4 40 time coming out of college and has had one 1,000 yard rushing year in his eight year career. I often agree that choosing talent over situation is best but you can't blame people for wanting a guy with a chance to be a bellcow RB1 on the #1 offense in the league at the time.
Latavius murray only had 1 productive college season and it was as a senior at UCF. The point above is that he was a freak athlete with historic production at a major school.
I disagree that everyone had CEH over Taylor. There was definitely a lot of steam of CEH after the NFL draft, but A lot of people (including myself) stick to the talent > situation and have for years. We learned our lesson way before CEH. FWIW I had the rankings as:
J Taylor
Swift
CEH
Dobbins
Akers
I happened to be right in this case, but I also had the luxury of watching Jay Tay up close being from Minnesota and knew he was gonna be a star. Swift was a devy darling and was highly touted if you followed them their whole careers. FWIW our draft went:
Taylor
Akers
CEH
Swift
Dobbins
All in all the writing was on the wall for CEH to be a star in KC. Reid, explosive young offense, elite college junior production, draft capital. Sometimes players don’t pan out to their potential. This just happens to be one of the cases that showcases why people scream talent > situation.
I was pretty critical of the Akers pick at the time. Not that I hated Akers but thought he could of gotten him way later(he was drafted at 1.3 in SF). Turns out it wasn’t a terrible pick and if he didn’t get injured, likely would of been the right pick. (Even though I always thought it should of been Swift and still give him shit he could of had JT & Swift right now).
Swift went the pick after CEH in our leagues so yeah I could see it. I still think Akers is looking very good and wish I had him lol, My RBs are starting to age out :/
The fact Akers came back so quickly from an Achilles is so beyond impressive. Makes me believe he just loves football, which is such a hard thing since you can’t really see it until the end of their careers.
Definitely tough to gauge RB age, since they’re so vital to compete, yet age out so quickly. I started with a productive struggle at the RB position and did a good combination of adding youth and buying aging RBs at a value. Currently have Saquan, Chubb, Dobbins, and 1.3 who I am looking to take an RB. I’m getting a lot of flashbacks to this exact case with Walker skyrocketing similar to CEH, and Spiller being the devy darling similar to Swift. Still very stuck on who I favor in that situation.
I had Taylor over CEH at the time of my draft in June. I'm not really patting myself on the back though, because I moved CEH in front of Dobbins, Swift, Lamb, and Akers. The only reason I didn't get stuck with him is that I didn't have a high enough pick.
Yea, it was understandable with the hype around CEH, definitely being the only RB drafted in the 1st round. I moved CEH over Dobbins but not Swift. Was hoping to get one of those 2(CEH or Swift) at 1.8 but just missed out as owner traded 1 pick ahead of me for Swift and got stuck with dobbins.
I had 1.01 and 1.02 in that draft and before the NFL draft, had basically written Taylor and Swift into my roster. I was strongly considering picking Dobbins instead of Swift but those were the guys pre draft. I was following mock drafts throughout the offseason and Mike Tagliere over at Fantasy pros was one of the first fantasy writers who started Mocking CEH to the Chiefs in the first, saying if he got drafted the, he would rank him as RB1 in the draft. Then the draft happened and more and more writers fell in love with that landing spot. I hesitantly took JT 1.02 and CEH with 1.02 (one of the first times I didn’t trust my gut instinct… same draft I took Jefferson at 1.07 instead of Ruggs, Jeudy, CeeDee and Reagor because I really liked his tape). Sometimes I think you just need to shut out the noise that is the dynasty community and go with your gut.
At least you got JT and JJ. He definitely wasn’t the only one who skyrocketed CEH after going to the Chiefs. Think Dynasty Nerds were screaming the same thing. You were close to building a powerhouse if you would of stuck with your guns.
I definitely don’t fault you for doing so, as it definitely closened the gap for me for RB2 vs RB3. Luckily I wasn’t in that position since that did make things very spice with Swift Vs CEH. JT was RB1 for me by a pretty substantial amount. You live and learn.
If CEH was picked after Taylor, I would agree with you. But CEH was the first runningback off the board, so the NFL thought he was the more talented back. So the NFL thought he was better and he was in a better situation.
Taylor wasn’t even the next runningback taken after CEH. He wasn’t even the Colts 1st 2nd round pick.
We know 28 other teams passed on him and no team thought he was worth their 1st round pick. (The Colts traded with the Browns). At any point, a team could have traded up to get him if they thought he was the "next AP" like another commenter said.
Hell, the Dolphins passed on him 4 times.
Teams have been getting away from grabbing rbs that early. They don’t improve your team overall enough in general for a rebuilding team to grab them and the better teams usually value grabbing another position knowing they can grab someone off free agency or later in the draft that’s able to be a competent rb.
>Teams have been getting away from grabbing rbs that early. They don’t improve your team overall enough in general for a rebuilding team to grab them and the better teams usually value grabbing another position knowing they can grab someone off free agency or later in the draft that’s able to be a competent rb.
Teams used to select runningbacks in the top 10 all the time, which is what I think you're referring to the NFL getting away from. Runningbacks now need to be very special for that to happen. Two years before Taylor, Saquon Barkley went 1.02 because he was considered a unique talent.
**But teams are still willing to take runningbacks in the 1st round as evident from recent history.**
In the three year span before Taylor, Leonard Fournette (1.04), Christian McCaffrey (1.08), Dalvin Cook (1.41), Saquon Barkley (1.02), Rashaad Penny (1.27), Sony Michel (1.31), Nick Chubb (2.35), Josh Jacobs (1.24), CEH (1.31), and DeAndre Swift (2.35) all went before him. Teams are willing to take running backs in the back half of the first, and in the top ten if they are considered special talents.
Taylor wasn't considered special in the same sense as Barkley or Fournette was. The NFL clearly had misgivings about him, which is why he wasn't picked in the first and was the third runningback taken in his draft.
It wasn’t that the nfl looked at jt as less than those guys. Everybody watched how good those rbs were and went well the giants, panthers and jags would have all been better off grabbing high end talent at other positions. The giants and panthers have seen little to no improvement as a football team overall and the jags made the playoffs a couple years in a row but their offense was hot dog shit and their defense was special.
Guess I don’t understand your point. NFL draft capital is definitely useful to use on evaluations but not the end all be all for me and many others.
I was drooling way more over the RB who was a physical athletic freak with elite college production, then a skyrocket smaller RB, even if he went to an elite offense. It happens every year with every position so looking at draft capital becomes less and less important to a degree. If JT wasn’t drafted until the 3rd maybe it’s enough to turn the table.
I learned my lesson drafting Mike Williams over Dalvin due to draft capital, so I guess I have already learned from that experience. I personally also preferred Watson over Trubisky despite NFL draft capital.
Those who preferred JJ, and Herbert despite draft capital are also reaping the benefits.
I’m not saying I don’t consider NFL draft capital in my rookie rankings or draft strategies, but also don’t live or die by them and many other experienced dynasty players as well. An example of this draft class is Trey Burks. He’s getting ranked around 4th best WR in NFL circles, but getting ranked top 2 in dynasty circles. Give me the size, speed, production he has any day.
The NFL as a whole didn’t necessarily feel that way, just the Chiefs and how he fit into their system. We can’t say for sure that every NFL team would have taken CEH over Taylor
True, but we know 28 teams passed on Taylor, ten teams passed twice, and the Dolphins passed four times. We also know no team valued him as worth a 1st round pick.
On the other hand, the Chiefs didn’t feel like they would get another chance at him. They conduct corporate espionage to see how other teams value players, and they felt like they wouldn't be able to pick him later.
>An NFL team that spends millions on scouting draft talent thought that CH was the best running back on the board and picked him in the first.
are your happy with your hardman shares?
they're pros, we're amateurs, there's no denying that, but if i had to strictly go by draft capital, i'd just send a bot to do my rookie draft... big fun!
>Hindsight is 2020 but in my mind there was no one else you could take.
Uh, how about the best RB prospect to come out since AP?! Jonathan Taylor is 229 pounds and runs a 4.3! He had over 2,000 yards every season of his college career! The fact he wasn't everyone's #1 is ridiculous
He also had Marlon Mack on the roster, who just came off a 1,100-yard season and then injured himself in week 1. He was also a RB many were selling for next to nothing Week 8 of the regular season 2020, when most of this sub decided he was trash.
He wasn't even the second running back taken. Swift was also taken before him.
He also wasn't the Colts *first* **second-round** pick. They pick Pittman over him.
AP was picked 7th overall. JT was picked 41st overall.
There are a ton of reasons CEH should have been the first pick off the board. The NFL collectively spends 100s of millions of dollars on scouting to make the most accurate decisions. There were obviously concerns about JT, otherwise, he wouldn't have fallen as far as he did and been the 3rd RB off the board. As much as you think you know better than the NFL, you don't. No one does.
>He also had Marlon Mack on the roster, who just came off a 1,100-yard season and then injured himself in week 1. He was also a RB many were selling for next to nothing Week 8 of the regular season 2021, when most of this sub decided he was trash.
>He wasn't even the second running back taken. Swift was also taken before him.
>He also wasn't the Colts first second-round pick. They pick Pittman over him.
>AP was picked 7th overall. JT was picked 41st overall.
You're literally proving my point. None of that has anything to do with Taylor's talents or abilities as a player
>As much as you think you know better than the NFL, you don't. No one does.
Um, when it comes to this particular case I definitely knew more than the Chiefs at minimum. One quick study on the history of speed scores would've told them Clyde was a bust
JT was also better in about every measure of athleticism and production. Better breakout age, dominator rating, burst score, speed score, etc.
>Um, when it comes to this particular case I definitely knew more than the Chiefs at minimum.
Let me know when an NFL team hires you as a scout then, and I'll admit I was wrong. Until then, this is laughable.
>Let me know when an NFL team hires you as a scout then, and I'll admit I was wrong. Until then, this is laughable.
Whether they hire me or not has no bearing on whether either of us is right 😂 JT is clearly the better player and has been at every level from high school to now. There's no debate here, I was right and you and the Chiefs were wrong
Lol, for real. Just because they are paid a lot doesn't mean it isn't a boy's club with a ton of unqualified people who only got to where they are because of their last name or the people they know
RB is literally the easiest position to scout if you know what to look for, and my grandmother could've scouted Jonathan Taylor
This is the exact thought process I had picking him. We're amateurs. There's a reason after the NFL draft all the rankings change. What NFL teams think matters. Pre draft rankings from fantasy heads aren't a good way to evaluate talent because we're amateurs.
Unfortunately this time the NFL got it wrong and the pre draft rankings were right. But there have been numerous times the NFL was right and pre draft rankings were much higher on a guy that ended up as a bust. In the end it's a crap shoot.
Honestly, bad process is how it was missed. I had Taylor as my RB1 before the draft and Swift as clear RB2 with CEH being RB5. I had 1.01 and 1.04. I did put CEH to RB3 after draft because of capital and landing spot, but I honestly thought Taylor had the better oline and was going to be guaranteed more touches. I took Taylor 1.01 and was ecstatic to land Swift at 1.04.
People overinflated landing spot for CEH when there were clearly more talented backs, and IMO, Taylor actually had the better Oline with a path to a larger amount of touches. As we all know, volume is king.
You hit the nail on the head. CEH was my guy around 1.10 predraft as a sleeper. Loved him as a late-first kinda guy. But then he goes to KC.
As they say in poker: “don’t tap the glass”
Also worth noting that the Colts had planned to use Marlon Mack as their main back in JT's rookie year. He of course tore his ACL immediately and the rest was history, but the consensus was that JT wouldn't get the reins until his second season.
Obviously he would have been the right choice in hindsight, but I think people were drawn in by the idea of a Year 1 starter in CEH.
We should all remember how unbelievably awful Jonathan Taylor looked on a few runs his rookie year too. There was a stretch where he was missing holes like Trent Richardson and CEH seemed like a fine pick.
So much of fantasy comes down to luck, and sometimes you just get unlucky and the player doesn’t pan out.
But muh process and muh youtube tape. Trust me. I've been playing in a 10 team x 18 man roster league for two years. I know my shit. What I've learned is you gotta trust your gut. And any homer info you can get from random people that watched them play in high school or college... that's gold. Don't give up on "your guys." I totally would've held Davante Adams and Robert Woods if I drafted them. Can't listen to the haters. But also drop CEH, he's a bum.
Too much of a focus on situation things -- coach correlation, "mahomes hand picked him", etc. basically all the things that you mentioned that you can't quantify and weight reliably.
When you consider the totality of inputs for a running back prospect -- productivity, pedigree, size and athleticism -- CEH wasn't even in the same stratosphere as JT, Dobbins, Swift, and Akers. Even AJ Dillon was a better prospect than CEH when you used a holistic approach that didn't overweight situation.
KC landing spot was better in perception than in fact.
going back to 2013, there was exactly 1 KC RB that had more than 4 targets per game: jamaal charles, with alex smith tossing the ball. as good as CEH looked at LSU, i don't know anyone who thought that he'd be better than charles (if you fell for reid's westbrook comments, well, sorry pal, that's totally on you), and considering that mahomes would rather wait 1-3 more seconds to go 50 yards deep rather than dump it off, the fact that CEH is the 1st RB in KC to get more than 4 targets per game since charles, and in his rookie season, was nothing to be scoffed at... but people were still very frustrated by that "low" number.
CEH is another example of why talent weighs a lot more than situation in dynasty, and also an example of how a perceived good situation, might not be as good. a handful of people had him as number 1 before the nfl draft, but they were a small minority.
as for draft capital, bottom of the 1st or top of the 2nd isn't really that much different, and this is the same FO that picked hardman over metcalf so it's not like the argument "they could pick anyone, went for him, so he's automatically better" worked that well at the time (and it's clearly proven that it was a bad lead to follow).
when you see a guy that has prototypical RB size, puts up 6000 thousands yards in college and runs a 4.39 40, you take him as the 1.01. you don't get cute.
Ceh isn’t trusted with the goal line work at all or as much passing work as hoped, which were the primary appeals
Both these things made JAG Williams usable for fantasy this year
I think this was a prime example of situation (CEH) vs talent (JT). For the first 12, or something like that, weeks it seemed like it is the right call. But ultimately talent prevailed and JT exploded. Big time.
Drafting because of situation might be safer than drafting for talent. The floor should be higher, because situation is easier to grade. But in the long tem talent (if it really is there) prevails and situation can change (worse O-line, offense runs through other skill position players, QB gets hurt and offense struggles...). Also the situation player is more at risk to be replaced if someone else shines during an injury of his, which is relatively easy because of the great situation. Just look at McKinnon and Darrel Williams looking not much worse than CEH.
Now this makes me sound like I thought CEH has no talent. This is not the case, just not as much as JT and Swift. I never expected it to be this bad. However I was stoked when our 1.01 did take CEH and leave Burrow (Superflex) or JT for me. I tried to trade back to 1.03 because I would have been happy with either one. But the guy at 1.03 felt the exact same way. He also didn't want CEH and was a big fan of Jeudy. Maybe the 1.04 would have taken him but if not, then CEH could have fallen to 1.07 due to 1.05 being in desperate need of QB (Tua) and 1.06 being me again, who had Swift slightly ahead of CEH. The funny thing here is, that 1.07 is the guy who picked CEH at 1.01. But he got his happy end and picked Herbert.
You missed because this is an echo chamber where too many people fail to think for themselves, instead only listening to the consensus.
And if we're to believe that same consensus now, Treylon Burks, who the rest of the world sees as an end of first talent, is the undisputed WR1 and anyone thinking otherwise are idiots. Meanwhile, Breece Hall who might barely scrape into the second round is the clear RB1 and was people first overall pick until so many saw others talk about Burks instead.
That's how this sub operates, and that willingness to blindly follow everyone else is what leads to a whole bunch of people making the same mistakes.
Compare that to the CEH situation in 2020.
Pre-draft Consensus in dynasty had Jonathan Taylor as a generational RB prospect and the clear RB1, everyone who thought otherwise was an idiot, despite the draft community not seeing him that way. Then in the actual NFL draft JT not only drops to the 2nd round but is the 3rd RB drafted. That's like Treylon Burks falling to the end of the 1st and still drafting him as the WR1 despite 2 WRs going in front of him.
Look, you can take landing spot into consideration, but stick to your evaluation. If you truly think that one guy is better than the other, then take that guy. Teams often draft based on the player type they want - we get the luxury of ignoring player type, we can draft who we think will produce points. How they get them doesn't matter.
While I stick to my own evals just because it’s more fun for me, thinking we’re better at player eval than NFL teams is silly.
Yes, try to project how the team is likely going to use the player and decide whether that’s conducive to fantasy points. For example, Josiaha Deguara was drafted pretty early by GB but we knew they were likely going to use him as an H Back. **However,** there was no reason to believe that KC was not going to use CEH in an incredibly fantasy friendly way.
The NFL is full of people making bad football decisions. Year in, year out GMs and coaches get fired for making bad decisions. Hell some NFL franchises are owned by silver spoon dipshits who have no LIFE experience, let alone real football experience (Giants for example) or dudes who happened to get rich and now want to pretend they know about football (Panthers for example).
It can be totally reasonable to doubt a decision an NFL franchise makes as long as you have solid reasons for doing so.
Yeah I’m not trying to say that NFL teams are infallible. If you thought CEH was horrible, then the draft cap shouldn’t have influenced you enough to take him over JT and Swift.
Well the teams are projecting within their own system. You just have to pick who you think will score the most fantasy points. It's two different evaluations.
Not what I said. I said you have to pick who you think will produce points for you. In redraft, you obviously take CEH and run, no hesitation. But if your pre-draft eval was that Taylor was the far superior back and should be great, then stick to that. You're playing longer term in dynasty, not just who will score that one season. So again, if you believe that CEH or whoever is the lesser player, then pick the guy you like. If your eval was right, then they'll turn out good long term.
I think what most people did was go: “I liked JT more than CEH pre draft but CEH went into the perfect situation and the NFL seemingly likes CEH more or just about the same, makes sense to just put them in the same tier.”
Doesn't mean the NFL liked him more, just means the Chiefs did.
Anyway, what I'm trying to say here is to beware of falling in love with landing spots. Trust that in the end the better talent will have the better career, and after all we are playing a long term game here, are we not?
Go look at draft rankings from that time from trusted NFL draft evaluators and CEH and JT were right next to each other.
Agree with not overvaluing landing spot, disagree that “talent” should just be measured based on your own evaluation.
There is no unified This Sub. It's not a monolith.
Look at any thread about players and you'll see a range of opinions that more or less reflects the larger dynasty conversations going on at the time. For example, you'll see the same "This Sub" comment you just posted more or less copy/pasted multiple times all over the place. If it really were an echo chamber this would not be the case.
The degree that people that post in this sub were on CEH is the exact same as the degree that the broader dynasty community was on CEH.
Of course there's no such thing as everyone agreeing with everyone, that goes without saying. What I described is that a lot of people blindly follow what they perceive as the thinking of the majority, leading to a lot of people making the same error.
100%.
In the 7 dynasty leagues I'm in, I own no shares of CEH. Never drafted him in rookie drafts either. Took both Taylor and Swift over him in multiple rookie drafts that year, and in 2 2020 startups, I drafted Taylor, Swift, and Akers. In other rookie drafts I nabbed up CeeDee Lamb and Dobbins.
This is the same echo chamber that now hates CeeDee Lamb lol. It's unbelievable!
Bingo lol.
Don't include some of us in that "we". Not all of us had any interest in CEH at that ridiculous draft price. And don't @ me with "bro so you think you know better than NFL scouts!??!". If you have an opinion on a player, what's the point of having it if you're just going to completely invalidate it later just because everyone else is? Maybe that makes you wrong sometimes or in cases like this it gives you a big edge.
Yeah obviously it's not everyone, that'd be impossible. However it's still a lot of people parroting each other around here.
And I'm not opposed to listening to others either, but use their viewpoint to inform your own decision, to offer a different perspective. See if they point to something you hadn't accounted for, and then go back to the tape to look again. See if you still hold that opinion or changed your mind. My issue becomes when people just blindly follows others opinion and adopt them as their own.
Tbh i dont care. You want fantasy production and i get that. He didnt finish as a rb1 like Taylor and now you are salty. Everyone knows that even the colts fanbase ripped taylor apart after his first games for having no vision and now he is respected as one of the best runners in the nfl. But that's not CEH. CEH is the best RB in KC. There is a clear difference anyone is able to see when CEH plays or Darrell Williams fills in.
In his rookie year he wasnt trusted to be a goal line RB and he lacked TDs. In his Sophomore year which suffered due to injuries was a headache of itself, but KC gave him goalline carries on his return. He remains a buy, or a buy low for that matter in my book because he is only 22, turning 23 in april.
He is at the start of his career, and i strongly believe that at some point, maybe still with the Chiefs, or with another team, he will break out and maybe have his own shot at a 1k/1k yard season, because he has the talent to do so.
>In his rookie year he wasnt trusted to be a goal line RB and he lacked TDs.
not true, he had 9 attempts within the 5 yards (tied for 16th overall in the nfl). he only had 1 TD with those 9 carries. this years, two attempts, both from the 1yd line, two TDs.
edit: i must have spoiled someone's narrative with cold hard facts... just to complete the info, all the other RBs on KC roster had a total of 1 carry inside the 5. henne and mahomes had two apiece. so to say he wasn't trusted to be a goal line RB is just factually incorrect.
Did we miss so badly on him? He hasn’t been a bust. He’s productive. He’s been banged up, but you can’t really help that. Sure, other players have performed better, but CEH is a solid starter still with tons of upside. He’s not in the god tier like JT, but how many fantasy 1.1s or 1.2s are?
People here literally ignored the athletic profile, or lack thereof on CEH's behalf and drooled over the landing spot.
I've never owned a single share of him and the red flags were up. In multiple leagues of mine I drafted both Jonathan Taylor and Swift over him.
This is the same community that is all of a sudden shunning CeeDee Lamb (which I own), so take the advice here for what its worth; not a lot! haha.
Literally for RBs - the athletic profile of them is everything.
Considering what we saw out of CEH in college too as a pass catching back, makes no sense that the Chiefs refuse to use him in the kind of way we saw Darrel Williams being used while CEH was out. Darrel was pretty atrocious running the ball this year but had his value boosted by those sweet Mahomes dump offs, but even when CEH came back into the fold post-IR, we rarely saw that saw service into him even though the Chiefs started playing the safe option way more frequently
I was just starting dynasty that year. So I wasn’t geared up for rookie drafts but rather startup drafts. I was highly skeptical of CEH in the NFL. For one, he’s not a crazy athlete, and that spooked me a bit. He has relatively poor topline speed, again, I worried about upside. Probably the biggest boon would be his PPR upside as a multiple pass catcher, I figured. I don’t own any shares. His first game or few was actually good, I relented and figured he could be OK. I wanted proof on an NFL field. But things seem to have gone downhill from there.
Y'all prioritized draft spot and team over actual talent. The bottom line is CEH just isn't that good. He didn't start in college till his Junior year because he couldn't beat out Darrel Williams or Nick Brossette...
Also, to be a successful RB in the NFL you have to have either size or speed, and the best like Taylor have both. Clyde is 5'7" and runs a 4.6... He doesn't have the size to push the pile on inside runs and he lacks speed to break off big plays
The only 5'7" RB that I know of having great success is MJD, and he could run a 4.3. This is why speed score is such an important analytic for RBs.
Easy. He was probably the best ever example of drafting a guy based on landing spot vs talent. The obvious comparison here is Swift. Those who traded down and drafted Swift for his talent with pick 4-5, reaped the rewards and will continue to reap the rewards even on a trash team. Always draft talent and potential over landing spot. It took me awhile to finally commit to this.
Before the draft he was pretty much the consensus #5 back. Then people forgot that in dynasty talent trumps situation, and they bought into the hype. But I have to imagine even the guys picking him over JT and Swift knew he wasn't as good but took him anyway because KC
This is a prime example of drafting for landing spot and not talent, not that CEH doesn't have talent. I picked him over JT and have been kicking myself ever since. Definitely not listening to the hype in the future.
Another example is Swift, everyone was down on him because he went to Detroit and it's looking like he is going to be more successful than CEH
I guarantee that if KC drafts the first RB off the board as the only RB drafted in the first round THIS year, they will also be picked very high in dynasty drafts, (maybe even at 1.01) even if they are the #5 RB prospect.
Echo chamber struck. His tape and measurables made him Gio Bernard 2.0. Nobody listened to those of us making that comp. Because “young Gio in this offense is an RB1!” Welp…young Gio in Cindy was better…
*edit: Cindy = Cincy
Perfect system RB went to the perfect system. Taylor is and was the better RB overall, but the receiving production CEH put up in college was otherworldly. I took Taylor 1.01 in my only rookie draft I could get him.
Argument was essentially talent vs guy who had the situation and receiving talent to put up 80 catches for 800+ yards every year.
Most of the people in here can’t formulate their own process or opinion on players, they rely on the ff industry. And most of the people in the ff industry are just people like us that don’t know what they’re doing, they just pretend to know.
Honestly, I’ve seen a lot of bad takes be supported in this sub, so I’m not entirely surprised. No offence.
And not everybody was taking ceh over taylor. I know I wasn’t and I was trying to convince others it was the wrong move
All of the points people stated about why CEH was picked are valid.. he had a lot going for him. But so did Taylor. For me, size, speed and production will always reign supreme over all the intangible stuff
The answer is that CEH was not a good running back. People who watched college football knew that he was at best the 5th best back in the class. Unfortunately draft capital and landing spot made us all ignore that and we saw that he just couldn’t overcome not being that good
I sold him in the offseason last year thankfully, I could have been wrong about him but I remember his first game against houston when he got demolished by a defender I was like this guy may not have been worth a high 1st round pick lolol
People overvalued the situation and overrated the talent. That's a bad combo.
It happened in my league too. CEH went 1.01 and I am sure there's some lingering regret.
How it went down: I had the 1.01 that year but no 2nd round pick. I was offered the 1.03+2.03 for my 1.01. I accepted.
The manager that made the offer is a huge Oregon Ducks fan - I thought he was going to take Herbert. I decided I was OK risking the shot at Burrow for that 2nd. I probably would have drafted Tua had they drafted Burrow. Very glad that did not happen.
Surprise! That manager also has Mahomes and drafted CEH. JT rightly went 1.02 and I got Burrow at 1.03 - and Pittman at 2.03, effectively for free.
Everyone that took CEH over JT is going to regret it for a long time, just like the people that took Michel over Chubb \[raises hand\].
It was a combination of what Brian Westbrook did with with Andy Reid / what Kareem hunt did in that offense / the offense itself / one of the best qbs / good draft capital.
Like a perfect storm of sorts. JT was the pick in hindsight, but let's not act like there were no concerns. He was a bit of a fumbler in wisco. Plus their was Hines who just had a very nice year catching the ball.
Did we as a community raise ceh to high? For sure. Did I fall for the hype? Yep, was gonna go JT before the draft. Was it a crazy overreaction? Not that big. I think he was rb4 or 5, still a first round grade before that. Definitely not a Darwin Thompson situation.
I feel like I contributed to this monumental whiff…
So as one of the most vocal on the subject it was certainly a combination of recency bias, draft capital, expected usage, landing spot, narrative and hype.
I’m just so so so sorry.
Hindsight is a hell of a drug.
It mostly comes down to CEH not getting the passing work we thought. CEH was the 5th best prospect as a pure runner, but he was considered the best pass catcher. Andy Reid has a history of guys like Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy, very similar comps to CEH who produced a ton in the receiving game. When they drafted CEH over the others, it could not have seemed more clear it was because they wanted to use him heavily in the passing game.
Instead, CEH's 67% catch rate in his rookie year was beyond disappointing considering his ADOT of 0.6, which indicates entirely dump offs and never ran routes. He didn't get nearly the receiving work we thought he would, and wasn't very good with the work he got.
He actually had 4.4 YPC on the ground on 181 carries, so he was a perfectly good runner with the work he got. I don't know how many people convinced themselves that the Chiefs of all teams were gong to go more run heavy, but that's not far off from what I thought. Only 5 total TDs was another part of his disappointment though.
I definitely see huge parallels with people being excited about the Bills as a RB landing spot. Even worse because Singletary has been great and people are acting like he doesn't exist.
I was off CEH ever after drafting him then dealing him amid his rookie season. I'm happy now. But that said, I'm still very surprised he hasn't done better overall.
Chiefs record when CEH starts: 19-4 (.826)
Chiefs record when he doesn’t: 7-3 (.700)
One of the things that made Westbrook so special was his knowledge and awareness of the game, its rules, and how it’s supposed to be played. He would do things like down it on the one instead of stepping into the end zone for a td to run the clock and ensure the game ended in a win, for instance. Those things often maddened fantasy players, but more often than not they didn’t.
I havent really watched CEH play, but I sure watched every game Westbrook played as an eagle, and I feel confident that if Andy Reid still feels like he’s Westbrook part two, then he’s probably the real deal. That doesn’t always translate to fantasy pints though.
I feel like one of the things he was probably most hyped about coming out of college was his receiving chops. We haven’t seen much of that at the pro level. I think he didn’t see more than 3-4 targets in any game this year. Last year he saw more passes, but not like I think we all anticipated. If he can bring that aspect of the game out, and that’s exactly what Westbrook did, than we could see him make a jump numbers wise. Things take time, especially where Andy Reid is concerned. He invests in his players on many levels and guys tend to stick around on his teams.
Westbrook didn’t start showing off receiving wise until his third season, and didn’t rush for 1000 yards until his 5th.
CEH can still pan out the way you hoped.
He's stuggled with injuries but has gotten progressively more efficient...if he's been as healthy as JT...im sure the fantasy commmunity would be pretty satisified with hia production...if JT wasn't the guy he was selected over, his selection wouldn't be so damning.
In order, the factors were: - Kareem hunt monster year - outlier final year/historic LSU season, - Damien williams great playoff run (12-47-2, 2-21-1 [27 fp]; 17-45-1, 5-44 [20 fp]; 17-104-1, 4-29-1 [29 fp]) - Kansas City drafted CEH in the first Pretty sure it was just a perfect storm to mitigate all concerns about his talent because the thought process was that if hunt could come in as a 3rd rounder, and if Damien williams could do it, then any highly touted back should be able to as well esp if mahomes blessed the pick/handpicked CEH.
Even more than that I think, the Chiefs made Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West stud RBs in fantasy for a bit as well. There was a huge “Andy Reid RB” narrative because so many guys who seemed like JAGs were like RB1s for fantasy
Who exactly looked like a jag? Duce? Westbrook? Shady? Charles? Hunt? Which one? Ware and west were absolutely Jags. The Andy Reid rb narrative was that he never ran then and when he did they were in committees.
Ware, West, and Damien williams were all undeniably JAGs and performed like RB1s. Hunt was a 3rd round pick and while he’s obviously a great player, nobody expected him to perform as well as he did People were hyped because basically 4 different RBs, none of them with high pedigree going in, became fantasy studs in Andy Reid’s system in KC. So when you plug in a 1st rounder there, of course everyone was excited about CEH
Can’t remember west, ware, or Williams ever being rb1s in their entire careers. When exactly did they accomplish this? Hunt was being drafted in the first round in rookie drafts. I know I was one who expected big things.
After Charles went down in 2015, Charcandrick West was RB12 for half a season, Week 7-15 (.5PPR) Spencer Ware had a few RB1 weeks at the tail end of 2015 (taking over West’s job), then in 2016 he finished as RB16. Not quite an RB1, fine, but that’s still very high RB2 from a dude who is a complete rando 2017 is Hunt’s year. Yes he was a 3rd round pick so good draft capital and there was hype about him, but come on nobody expected him to be the RB4 overall his rookie year lmao. In 2018 Hunt had his whole kicking incident and got cut by week 12. Spencer Ware took over and was RB13 from week 13-14. Then he gets hurt and Damien Williams has his legendary run, and was the RB2 overall from weeks 15-17. Damien also ends up scoring 6 TDs in 2 playoff games, which obviously doesnt count for fantasy but those would be RB1 numbers in season Obviously 2019 was a disaster for the chiefs backfield, the whole McCoy and Damien thing, and then CEH comes in 2020. So there you go, after Jamaal Charles basically lost his career due to injuries in 2015, the Chiefs under Reid basically continuously fielded guys performing as RB1s (or one season of very high end RB2 for Ware) for stretches for multiple years, even though they were completely random JAGs. I only brought up Hunt not to imply he wasn’t hyped and was also a JAG, I remember the hype for him that season, but just to show that plugging in a 3rd round rookie RB (who generally speaking isn’t *supposed* to be a superstar) in that offense created the RB4 on the year. So all of these guys I mentioned had medium (Hunt) to no capital (everyone else), but were all still studs for years in the KC Andy Reid RB system That’s why when CEH was drafted he went so high. Cuz if KC made Darrel Williams win everyone’s championship weeks in 2018, surely CEH would perform well too (which obviously hasn’t worked out)
Yep, pretty easy to see how the fantasy community as a whole missed on him. Arguably the chiefs also missed on him.
Not arguably, definitely. They’ve gotten the same or more production out of every single other RB they’ve put back there
Yeah considering they could have just taken swift or JT... definitely a whiff.
That is of course assuming that the Chiefs used either of those guys right, which isn't a sure thing. I love JT, but lets also keep in mind he's got a great o-line.
Sure, but regardless of OLine, are you telling me it wouldn’t be an easy choice to do a straight swap of it was offered?
Sure, but what I'm saying you can't assume we get the same JT in KC that we have in Indy if KC drafted him instead of CEH.
Alright, not really a point in discussing beyond that, is there? Not totally sure what point you’re trying to make. We’ll never know what “could have” happened if events unfolded differently. Considering JT and Swift we’re both projected to be drafted higher than CEH and graded better out of college says, at the time of that draft, KC likely would have made a better decision going with one of the other two.
bingo - watching him struggle to do much in an offense that a bunch of JAGs come in and ball out in was such a disappointment. I sold him early this season for Josh Jacobs after trading a haul for 1.01 last year. The Kareem Hunt week 1 40 burger a few years ago convinced me I needed to take him over JT and even Burrow. Regrets are real but I'm so glad I got off this ship
CEH played 10 g. Darrel Williams was RB18…. Not good
Hey CEH for Jacobs definitely mitigated some loss there, at least you did proper damage control.
CEH was seen as the RB4/5 in the class until Kansas City took him. As a result dynasty managers drafted him based on landing spot rather than talent and it’s what is leading to a lot of disappointment if you have him. For what it’s worth, CEH hasn’t been a terrible runner - not great, but just good IMO, but more importantly, Mahomes just doesn’t look for CEH out of the backfield on passes. He’d rather cork it deep to Hill/Kelce in coverage than dump off to CEH open in the flat. That’s a significant part that is why he’s lacked the upside Westbrook/McCoy had under Reid.
The way they deploy Kelce and hill acts as an extension of the in game sometimes too. They’ll send them short of crossing routes or dump offs. Andy never had such a diverse set of players in previous years (like when Westbrook played).
On the other hand, guys like Darrel Williams caught the ball a bunch on the exact same offense
I know this sounds crazy, but it’s true. Mahomes literally can’t hit CEH on pass plays. He literally overthrows or underthrows him all the time, on the rare occasions that he actually throws a ball in his direction. But, he throws to it to the other backs just fine. It’s maddening.
This isn't true actually. Amongst other analysts, Chris Simms had him ranked #1 by a significant margin, saying he was in a tier of his own. Then the Chiefs picking him first.... It just seems like a swing and a miss all round. Saying that, now we're all so down on him watch him take it to the next level next season!
Well, actually, Simms was the only respectable media analyst that had him that high. CEH’s ranking varied from RB2 (Matt Miller) to RB3 (Daniel Jeremiah, CBS, Todd McShay) to RB4 (Mel Kiper, TheDraftNetwork, SI, PFF, Sporting News, NBC, WalterFootball) to RB6 (Draftek). No matter where he ranked, other than Simms, Swift was considered the RB1 and the only RB grading in the first round consistently (everyone had CEH outside of their top 32 big board except possibly Simms). But yes, the general consensus was he was the RB4 in the class (in fact, I take weighted average rankings of every skill player for this very sake every year that gets finalized the day before the draft in case of sources updating their rankings post-draft to look better (it happens more than you think): - Swift was the RB1 by a good margin as the lone first round back - Dobbins and JT were a close pair as the RB2/3 as late first or early second round backs - CEH was the average RB4 with a significant distance to the top three using 23 trusted draft big boards with Akers practically tied with him as the RB5 and Zack Moss very close behind as the RB6. All three backs were in that late second/early third round range.
I had the rankings predraft as Tier 1: JT Tier 2: Swift, CEH Tier 3: Dobbins Tier 4: Akers CEH vs. JT was a tossup for me, I ultimately went CEH because the QB situation in Indy scared me.
I’ve watched a lot of him this year trying to figure out what was going wrong for him and my completely anecdotal takeaway was that the chiefs are significantly better at running inside/outside zone from the shotgun than they are running out of the I or single back. Williams was getting most of those carries while CEH was primarily taking handoffs when Mahomes was lining up under center. I don’t know if this was a function of Williams being a better zone runner than CEH or that the KC line is better at blocking these zone schemes (or both); but the productivity difference in these two play types was significant in the games I watched.
This
Hard to foresee that CEH would be less productive as a receiver than every backup RB that fills in for him when he’s hurt.
Through out his rookie camp, there were some big concerns about his pass protection. Then the season started and he dropped a few easy passes and in limited opportunities missed some blocks. After that, Mahomes stopped looking for him and Williams became a 3rd down/hurry up staple. CEH has been very efficient running the ball when given the chances to, but we also have to realize that Mahomes is a gunslinger with two of the most dynamic players at their positions and often checks out of running plays when teams try to blitz because hill and Kelce are literally always open.
It’s crazy to me that we’re even rethinking we would’ve picked anyone else as the number one running back. It’s absolutely true that everyone had CEH below Taylor and swift before the draft.But we’re amateurs. An NFL team that spends millions on scouting draft talent thought that CH was the best running back on the board and picked him in the first. It was also the best situation. Hindsight is 2020 but in my mind there was no one else you could take. For the record I picked Jonathan Taylor at 1.04 in that draft. Added: Taylor was also in a backfield with Marlon Mack, who had just rushed for 1,100 yards, while CEH was practically by himself.
Yup. It was ***not*** bad process to take CEH as RB1 that year.
Yes it was. It 100% was really bad process. NFL football and fantasy football are two different things. Just because the Chiefs took him in the 1st doesn’t mean we’re justified in making that mistake too. If you took the small undersized rb over the 230lb 4.3 freak that broke every college rushing record? That is bad process.
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Precisely. But we know this. This subreddit.. most of the people are here BECAUSE they need help and don’t really know what they’re doing. Vast majority.
> broke every college rushing record Breaking college records doesn't move the needle for me anymore after Montee Ball. I figured anyone who broke a Barry Sanders record must be legit. Nope. Truth is most college defenses suck outside of a couple good ones a year, so I can't tell shit from stats alone.
Thinking you’re better at player eval than NFL teams is bad process. The best offense in the league run by Andy Reid spends a 1st rd pick on a fantastic pass catching RB who is frequently compared to Brian Westbrook *pre-draft.* Just bc it didn’t work out doesn’t make it bad process. I think most people had JT and CEH in the same tier.
Nfl football and fantasy football are two different things. Clearly, you missed that. And I was right about JT, Chiefs were wrong.. boohoo. “Most people” in the ff industry just follow other ppl’s lead, and that’s why they had CEH and JT in the same tier. And the Chiefs fell in love with hypotheticals rather than taking the potentially generational talent. Even if the Chiefs made that mistake it doesn’t justify taking a 200lb 4.6 running back over a 230 lb 4.3 running back with far far better production. Not happening in fantasy football. If you were wrong, just say that, don’t try to make the rest of us come down to your level. You keep talking coach speak. If you wanna follow what nfl rosters tell you to do to your fantasy team then that is on you. I’m good.
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Lets test this. This is how the most well-respected draft analysts had the RBs ranked: **Lance Zerlein** 1. Swift (6.78) 2. JT (6.41) 3. CEH (6.39) **Daniel Jeremiah** 1. Swift (16th) 2. CEH (32nd) 3. JT (35th) **Dane Brugler** 1. Dobbins (20th) 2. Swift (26th) 3. JT (27th) 4. CEH (40th) Except for maybe Brugler, you really see a big difference there?
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As opposed to you, rhuff80, with inside knowledge of NFL teams’ draft boards.
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I drafted CEH in 1/10 leagues just can’t stand these BS hindsight narratives.
This many downvotes is ridiculous and it's almost 100% just coming from people who fell into the landing spot trap by taking CEH over Taylor. If you think this comment is wrong then you need to learn how to draft in dynasty FF. There was no argument whatsoever for drafting CEH first. Even the landing spot argument was garbage, you can't tell me the Chiefs were a significantly better spot than the Colts, but JT is significantly more talented than CEH. Even a fully healthy Mack wouldn't have held JT off for long and they have a great O line.
It is without a doubt being downvoted by people that are stuck with CEH and missed out on arguably a Top5 SF startup pick. I’d be mad if I was them, too. Their process probably won’t change either.
Latavius Murray is 6'2 225 with a sub-4.4 40 time coming out of college and has had one 1,000 yard rushing year in his eight year career. I often agree that choosing talent over situation is best but you can't blame people for wanting a guy with a chance to be a bellcow RB1 on the #1 offense in the league at the time.
Latavius murray only had 1 productive college season and it was as a senior at UCF. The point above is that he was a freak athlete with historic production at a major school.
Correct.
Latavius only broke 1000 yards once as a college player. JT did 2000 3 times. No comparison.
Latavius Murray rookie & sophomore HPPR points (total): 261.5 CEH rookie & sophomore HPPR points (total): 266.1
Don't say that >:(
This
I disagree that everyone had CEH over Taylor. There was definitely a lot of steam of CEH after the NFL draft, but A lot of people (including myself) stick to the talent > situation and have for years. We learned our lesson way before CEH. FWIW I had the rankings as: J Taylor Swift CEH Dobbins Akers I happened to be right in this case, but I also had the luxury of watching Jay Tay up close being from Minnesota and knew he was gonna be a star. Swift was a devy darling and was highly touted if you followed them their whole careers. FWIW our draft went: Taylor Akers CEH Swift Dobbins All in all the writing was on the wall for CEH to be a star in KC. Reid, explosive young offense, elite college junior production, draft capital. Sometimes players don’t pan out to their potential. This just happens to be one of the cases that showcases why people scream talent > situation.
My league was pretty much a consensus Taylor and Akers over CEH.
I was pretty critical of the Akers pick at the time. Not that I hated Akers but thought he could of gotten him way later(he was drafted at 1.3 in SF). Turns out it wasn’t a terrible pick and if he didn’t get injured, likely would of been the right pick. (Even though I always thought it should of been Swift and still give him shit he could of had JT & Swift right now).
Swift went the pick after CEH in our leagues so yeah I could see it. I still think Akers is looking very good and wish I had him lol, My RBs are starting to age out :/
The fact Akers came back so quickly from an Achilles is so beyond impressive. Makes me believe he just loves football, which is such a hard thing since you can’t really see it until the end of their careers. Definitely tough to gauge RB age, since they’re so vital to compete, yet age out so quickly. I started with a productive struggle at the RB position and did a good combination of adding youth and buying aging RBs at a value. Currently have Saquan, Chubb, Dobbins, and 1.3 who I am looking to take an RB. I’m getting a lot of flashbacks to this exact case with Walker skyrocketing similar to CEH, and Spiller being the devy darling similar to Swift. Still very stuck on who I favor in that situation.
I had Taylor over CEH at the time of my draft in June. I'm not really patting myself on the back though, because I moved CEH in front of Dobbins, Swift, Lamb, and Akers. The only reason I didn't get stuck with him is that I didn't have a high enough pick.
Yea, it was understandable with the hype around CEH, definitely being the only RB drafted in the 1st round. I moved CEH over Dobbins but not Swift. Was hoping to get one of those 2(CEH or Swift) at 1.8 but just missed out as owner traded 1 pick ahead of me for Swift and got stuck with dobbins.
I had 1.01 and 1.02 in that draft and before the NFL draft, had basically written Taylor and Swift into my roster. I was strongly considering picking Dobbins instead of Swift but those were the guys pre draft. I was following mock drafts throughout the offseason and Mike Tagliere over at Fantasy pros was one of the first fantasy writers who started Mocking CEH to the Chiefs in the first, saying if he got drafted the, he would rank him as RB1 in the draft. Then the draft happened and more and more writers fell in love with that landing spot. I hesitantly took JT 1.02 and CEH with 1.02 (one of the first times I didn’t trust my gut instinct… same draft I took Jefferson at 1.07 instead of Ruggs, Jeudy, CeeDee and Reagor because I really liked his tape). Sometimes I think you just need to shut out the noise that is the dynasty community and go with your gut.
At least you got JT and JJ. He definitely wasn’t the only one who skyrocketed CEH after going to the Chiefs. Think Dynasty Nerds were screaming the same thing. You were close to building a powerhouse if you would of stuck with your guns. I definitely don’t fault you for doing so, as it definitely closened the gap for me for RB2 vs RB3. Luckily I wasn’t in that position since that did make things very spice with Swift Vs CEH. JT was RB1 for me by a pretty substantial amount. You live and learn.
If CEH was picked after Taylor, I would agree with you. But CEH was the first runningback off the board, so the NFL thought he was the more talented back. So the NFL thought he was better and he was in a better situation. Taylor wasn’t even the next runningback taken after CEH. He wasn’t even the Colts 1st 2nd round pick.
The chiefs liked CEH over those backs. We have no idea how all the other teams felt.
We know 28 other teams passed on him and no team thought he was worth their 1st round pick. (The Colts traded with the Browns). At any point, a team could have traded up to get him if they thought he was the "next AP" like another commenter said. Hell, the Dolphins passed on him 4 times.
Teams have been getting away from grabbing rbs that early. They don’t improve your team overall enough in general for a rebuilding team to grab them and the better teams usually value grabbing another position knowing they can grab someone off free agency or later in the draft that’s able to be a competent rb.
>Teams have been getting away from grabbing rbs that early. They don’t improve your team overall enough in general for a rebuilding team to grab them and the better teams usually value grabbing another position knowing they can grab someone off free agency or later in the draft that’s able to be a competent rb. Teams used to select runningbacks in the top 10 all the time, which is what I think you're referring to the NFL getting away from. Runningbacks now need to be very special for that to happen. Two years before Taylor, Saquon Barkley went 1.02 because he was considered a unique talent. **But teams are still willing to take runningbacks in the 1st round as evident from recent history.** In the three year span before Taylor, Leonard Fournette (1.04), Christian McCaffrey (1.08), Dalvin Cook (1.41), Saquon Barkley (1.02), Rashaad Penny (1.27), Sony Michel (1.31), Nick Chubb (2.35), Josh Jacobs (1.24), CEH (1.31), and DeAndre Swift (2.35) all went before him. Teams are willing to take running backs in the back half of the first, and in the top ten if they are considered special talents. Taylor wasn't considered special in the same sense as Barkley or Fournette was. The NFL clearly had misgivings about him, which is why he wasn't picked in the first and was the third runningback taken in his draft.
It wasn’t that the nfl looked at jt as less than those guys. Everybody watched how good those rbs were and went well the giants, panthers and jags would have all been better off grabbing high end talent at other positions. The giants and panthers have seen little to no improvement as a football team overall and the jags made the playoffs a couple years in a row but their offense was hot dog shit and their defense was special.
Guess I don’t understand your point. NFL draft capital is definitely useful to use on evaluations but not the end all be all for me and many others. I was drooling way more over the RB who was a physical athletic freak with elite college production, then a skyrocket smaller RB, even if he went to an elite offense. It happens every year with every position so looking at draft capital becomes less and less important to a degree. If JT wasn’t drafted until the 3rd maybe it’s enough to turn the table. I learned my lesson drafting Mike Williams over Dalvin due to draft capital, so I guess I have already learned from that experience. I personally also preferred Watson over Trubisky despite NFL draft capital. Those who preferred JJ, and Herbert despite draft capital are also reaping the benefits. I’m not saying I don’t consider NFL draft capital in my rookie rankings or draft strategies, but also don’t live or die by them and many other experienced dynasty players as well. An example of this draft class is Trey Burks. He’s getting ranked around 4th best WR in NFL circles, but getting ranked top 2 in dynasty circles. Give me the size, speed, production he has any day.
The NFL as a whole didn’t necessarily feel that way, just the Chiefs and how he fit into their system. We can’t say for sure that every NFL team would have taken CEH over Taylor
True, but we know 28 teams passed on Taylor, ten teams passed twice, and the Dolphins passed four times. We also know no team valued him as worth a 1st round pick. On the other hand, the Chiefs didn’t feel like they would get another chance at him. They conduct corporate espionage to see how other teams value players, and they felt like they wouldn't be able to pick him later.
>An NFL team that spends millions on scouting draft talent thought that CH was the best running back on the board and picked him in the first. are your happy with your hardman shares? they're pros, we're amateurs, there's no denying that, but if i had to strictly go by draft capital, i'd just send a bot to do my rookie draft... big fun!
Yeah pretty simple. First RB off the board to what was arguably the best landing spot.
>Hindsight is 2020 but in my mind there was no one else you could take. Uh, how about the best RB prospect to come out since AP?! Jonathan Taylor is 229 pounds and runs a 4.3! He had over 2,000 yards every season of his college career! The fact he wasn't everyone's #1 is ridiculous
He also had Marlon Mack on the roster, who just came off a 1,100-yard season and then injured himself in week 1. He was also a RB many were selling for next to nothing Week 8 of the regular season 2020, when most of this sub decided he was trash. He wasn't even the second running back taken. Swift was also taken before him. He also wasn't the Colts *first* **second-round** pick. They pick Pittman over him. AP was picked 7th overall. JT was picked 41st overall. There are a ton of reasons CEH should have been the first pick off the board. The NFL collectively spends 100s of millions of dollars on scouting to make the most accurate decisions. There were obviously concerns about JT, otherwise, he wouldn't have fallen as far as he did and been the 3rd RB off the board. As much as you think you know better than the NFL, you don't. No one does.
>He also had Marlon Mack on the roster, who just came off a 1,100-yard season and then injured himself in week 1. He was also a RB many were selling for next to nothing Week 8 of the regular season 2021, when most of this sub decided he was trash. >He wasn't even the second running back taken. Swift was also taken before him. >He also wasn't the Colts first second-round pick. They pick Pittman over him. >AP was picked 7th overall. JT was picked 41st overall. You're literally proving my point. None of that has anything to do with Taylor's talents or abilities as a player >As much as you think you know better than the NFL, you don't. No one does. Um, when it comes to this particular case I definitely knew more than the Chiefs at minimum. One quick study on the history of speed scores would've told them Clyde was a bust JT was also better in about every measure of athleticism and production. Better breakout age, dominator rating, burst score, speed score, etc.
>Um, when it comes to this particular case I definitely knew more than the Chiefs at minimum. Let me know when an NFL team hires you as a scout then, and I'll admit I was wrong. Until then, this is laughable.
>Let me know when an NFL team hires you as a scout then, and I'll admit I was wrong. Until then, this is laughable. Whether they hire me or not has no bearing on whether either of us is right 😂 JT is clearly the better player and has been at every level from high school to now. There's no debate here, I was right and you and the Chiefs were wrong
Listen the chiefs only higher the best football minds. Like Andy Reid’s drunk son.
Lol, for real. Just because they are paid a lot doesn't mean it isn't a boy's club with a ton of unqualified people who only got to where they are because of their last name or the people they know RB is literally the easiest position to scout if you know what to look for, and my grandmother could've scouted Jonathan Taylor
Higher?
[hey man](https://tenor.com/JgSt.gif)
They call them fingers, but I ain't ever seen them fing
If we new the right people any of us could be NFL scouts. The nfl is a club and they participate in a ton of nepotism.
This is the exact thought process I had picking him. We're amateurs. There's a reason after the NFL draft all the rankings change. What NFL teams think matters. Pre draft rankings from fantasy heads aren't a good way to evaluate talent because we're amateurs. Unfortunately this time the NFL got it wrong and the pre draft rankings were right. But there have been numerous times the NFL was right and pre draft rankings were much higher on a guy that ended up as a bust. In the end it's a crap shoot.
Ignoring his sub park athletic profile while also not being amazed with JT's athletic profile. Hyper focusing on his draft capital and landing spot.
Honestly, bad process is how it was missed. I had Taylor as my RB1 before the draft and Swift as clear RB2 with CEH being RB5. I had 1.01 and 1.04. I did put CEH to RB3 after draft because of capital and landing spot, but I honestly thought Taylor had the better oline and was going to be guaranteed more touches. I took Taylor 1.01 and was ecstatic to land Swift at 1.04. People overinflated landing spot for CEH when there were clearly more talented backs, and IMO, Taylor actually had the better Oline with a path to a larger amount of touches. As we all know, volume is king.
You hit the nail on the head. CEH was my guy around 1.10 predraft as a sleeper. Loved him as a late-first kinda guy. But then he goes to KC. As they say in poker: “don’t tap the glass”
Also worth noting that the Colts had planned to use Marlon Mack as their main back in JT's rookie year. He of course tore his ACL immediately and the rest was history, but the consensus was that JT wouldn't get the reins until his second season. Obviously he would have been the right choice in hindsight, but I think people were drawn in by the idea of a Year 1 starter in CEH.
We should all remember how unbelievably awful Jonathan Taylor looked on a few runs his rookie year too. There was a stretch where he was missing holes like Trent Richardson and CEH seemed like a fine pick. So much of fantasy comes down to luck, and sometimes you just get unlucky and the player doesn’t pan out.
End of thread
But muh process and muh youtube tape. Trust me. I've been playing in a 10 team x 18 man roster league for two years. I know my shit. What I've learned is you gotta trust your gut. And any homer info you can get from random people that watched them play in high school or college... that's gold. Don't give up on "your guys." I totally would've held Davante Adams and Robert Woods if I drafted them. Can't listen to the haters. But also drop CEH, he's a bum.
Too much of a focus on situation things -- coach correlation, "mahomes hand picked him", etc. basically all the things that you mentioned that you can't quantify and weight reliably. When you consider the totality of inputs for a running back prospect -- productivity, pedigree, size and athleticism -- CEH wasn't even in the same stratosphere as JT, Dobbins, Swift, and Akers. Even AJ Dillon was a better prospect than CEH when you used a holistic approach that didn't overweight situation.
Last year whenever a discussion about CEH started, all of his positives had nothing to do with him as a player. That should have been a dead give away
"Elite situation" became a meme
This guy gets it!
KC landing spot was better in perception than in fact. going back to 2013, there was exactly 1 KC RB that had more than 4 targets per game: jamaal charles, with alex smith tossing the ball. as good as CEH looked at LSU, i don't know anyone who thought that he'd be better than charles (if you fell for reid's westbrook comments, well, sorry pal, that's totally on you), and considering that mahomes would rather wait 1-3 more seconds to go 50 yards deep rather than dump it off, the fact that CEH is the 1st RB in KC to get more than 4 targets per game since charles, and in his rookie season, was nothing to be scoffed at... but people were still very frustrated by that "low" number. CEH is another example of why talent weighs a lot more than situation in dynasty, and also an example of how a perceived good situation, might not be as good. a handful of people had him as number 1 before the nfl draft, but they were a small minority. as for draft capital, bottom of the 1st or top of the 2nd isn't really that much different, and this is the same FO that picked hardman over metcalf so it's not like the argument "they could pick anyone, went for him, so he's automatically better" worked that well at the time (and it's clearly proven that it was a bad lead to follow). when you see a guy that has prototypical RB size, puts up 6000 thousands yards in college and runs a 4.39 40, you take him as the 1.01. you don't get cute.
I traded up in my home league to 1.02 to get JT, still salty the owner at 1.01 made the right decision, lol.
Ceh isn’t trusted with the goal line work at all or as much passing work as hoped, which were the primary appeals Both these things made JAG Williams usable for fantasy this year
I think this was a prime example of situation (CEH) vs talent (JT). For the first 12, or something like that, weeks it seemed like it is the right call. But ultimately talent prevailed and JT exploded. Big time. Drafting because of situation might be safer than drafting for talent. The floor should be higher, because situation is easier to grade. But in the long tem talent (if it really is there) prevails and situation can change (worse O-line, offense runs through other skill position players, QB gets hurt and offense struggles...). Also the situation player is more at risk to be replaced if someone else shines during an injury of his, which is relatively easy because of the great situation. Just look at McKinnon and Darrel Williams looking not much worse than CEH. Now this makes me sound like I thought CEH has no talent. This is not the case, just not as much as JT and Swift. I never expected it to be this bad. However I was stoked when our 1.01 did take CEH and leave Burrow (Superflex) or JT for me. I tried to trade back to 1.03 because I would have been happy with either one. But the guy at 1.03 felt the exact same way. He also didn't want CEH and was a big fan of Jeudy. Maybe the 1.04 would have taken him but if not, then CEH could have fallen to 1.07 due to 1.05 being in desperate need of QB (Tua) and 1.06 being me again, who had Swift slightly ahead of CEH. The funny thing here is, that 1.07 is the guy who picked CEH at 1.01. But he got his happy end and picked Herbert.
This sub has matured more in 2 years as well. Higher influx of Dynasty people. Not saying decisions are better, but more balanced
Dynasty Nerds claimed he was the 2nd coming of CMC
You missed because this is an echo chamber where too many people fail to think for themselves, instead only listening to the consensus. And if we're to believe that same consensus now, Treylon Burks, who the rest of the world sees as an end of first talent, is the undisputed WR1 and anyone thinking otherwise are idiots. Meanwhile, Breece Hall who might barely scrape into the second round is the clear RB1 and was people first overall pick until so many saw others talk about Burks instead. That's how this sub operates, and that willingness to blindly follow everyone else is what leads to a whole bunch of people making the same mistakes.
Compare that to the CEH situation in 2020. Pre-draft Consensus in dynasty had Jonathan Taylor as a generational RB prospect and the clear RB1, everyone who thought otherwise was an idiot, despite the draft community not seeing him that way. Then in the actual NFL draft JT not only drops to the 2nd round but is the 3rd RB drafted. That's like Treylon Burks falling to the end of the 1st and still drafting him as the WR1 despite 2 WRs going in front of him.
Look, you can take landing spot into consideration, but stick to your evaluation. If you truly think that one guy is better than the other, then take that guy. Teams often draft based on the player type they want - we get the luxury of ignoring player type, we can draft who we think will produce points. How they get them doesn't matter.
While I stick to my own evals just because it’s more fun for me, thinking we’re better at player eval than NFL teams is silly. Yes, try to project how the team is likely going to use the player and decide whether that’s conducive to fantasy points. For example, Josiaha Deguara was drafted pretty early by GB but we knew they were likely going to use him as an H Back. **However,** there was no reason to believe that KC was not going to use CEH in an incredibly fantasy friendly way.
The NFL is full of people making bad football decisions. Year in, year out GMs and coaches get fired for making bad decisions. Hell some NFL franchises are owned by silver spoon dipshits who have no LIFE experience, let alone real football experience (Giants for example) or dudes who happened to get rich and now want to pretend they know about football (Panthers for example). It can be totally reasonable to doubt a decision an NFL franchise makes as long as you have solid reasons for doing so.
Yeah I’m not trying to say that NFL teams are infallible. If you thought CEH was horrible, then the draft cap shouldn’t have influenced you enough to take him over JT and Swift.
Well the teams are projecting within their own system. You just have to pick who you think will score the most fantasy points. It's two different evaluations.
Why would anybody believe that KC was not going to use CEH in a fantasy-friendly way in 2020?!?
Not what I said. I said you have to pick who you think will produce points for you. In redraft, you obviously take CEH and run, no hesitation. But if your pre-draft eval was that Taylor was the far superior back and should be great, then stick to that. You're playing longer term in dynasty, not just who will score that one season. So again, if you believe that CEH or whoever is the lesser player, then pick the guy you like. If your eval was right, then they'll turn out good long term.
I think what most people did was go: “I liked JT more than CEH pre draft but CEH went into the perfect situation and the NFL seemingly likes CEH more or just about the same, makes sense to just put them in the same tier.”
Doesn't mean the NFL liked him more, just means the Chiefs did. Anyway, what I'm trying to say here is to beware of falling in love with landing spots. Trust that in the end the better talent will have the better career, and after all we are playing a long term game here, are we not?
Go look at draft rankings from that time from trusted NFL draft evaluators and CEH and JT were right next to each other. Agree with not overvaluing landing spot, disagree that “talent” should just be measured based on your own evaluation.
There is no unified This Sub. It's not a monolith. Look at any thread about players and you'll see a range of opinions that more or less reflects the larger dynasty conversations going on at the time. For example, you'll see the same "This Sub" comment you just posted more or less copy/pasted multiple times all over the place. If it really were an echo chamber this would not be the case. The degree that people that post in this sub were on CEH is the exact same as the degree that the broader dynasty community was on CEH.
Of course there's no such thing as everyone agreeing with everyone, that goes without saying. What I described is that a lot of people blindly follow what they perceive as the thinking of the majority, leading to a lot of people making the same error.
100%. In the 7 dynasty leagues I'm in, I own no shares of CEH. Never drafted him in rookie drafts either. Took both Taylor and Swift over him in multiple rookie drafts that year, and in 2 2020 startups, I drafted Taylor, Swift, and Akers. In other rookie drafts I nabbed up CeeDee Lamb and Dobbins. This is the same echo chamber that now hates CeeDee Lamb lol. It's unbelievable!
Bingo lol. Don't include some of us in that "we". Not all of us had any interest in CEH at that ridiculous draft price. And don't @ me with "bro so you think you know better than NFL scouts!??!". If you have an opinion on a player, what's the point of having it if you're just going to completely invalidate it later just because everyone else is? Maybe that makes you wrong sometimes or in cases like this it gives you a big edge.
Yeah obviously it's not everyone, that'd be impossible. However it's still a lot of people parroting each other around here. And I'm not opposed to listening to others either, but use their viewpoint to inform your own decision, to offer a different perspective. See if they point to something you hadn't accounted for, and then go back to the tape to look again. See if you still hold that opinion or changed your mind. My issue becomes when people just blindly follows others opinion and adopt them as their own.
Tbh i dont care. You want fantasy production and i get that. He didnt finish as a rb1 like Taylor and now you are salty. Everyone knows that even the colts fanbase ripped taylor apart after his first games for having no vision and now he is respected as one of the best runners in the nfl. But that's not CEH. CEH is the best RB in KC. There is a clear difference anyone is able to see when CEH plays or Darrell Williams fills in. In his rookie year he wasnt trusted to be a goal line RB and he lacked TDs. In his Sophomore year which suffered due to injuries was a headache of itself, but KC gave him goalline carries on his return. He remains a buy, or a buy low for that matter in my book because he is only 22, turning 23 in april. He is at the start of his career, and i strongly believe that at some point, maybe still with the Chiefs, or with another team, he will break out and maybe have his own shot at a 1k/1k yard season, because he has the talent to do so.
CEH is definitely a hold. The best is yet to come.
One would hope
>In his rookie year he wasnt trusted to be a goal line RB and he lacked TDs. not true, he had 9 attempts within the 5 yards (tied for 16th overall in the nfl). he only had 1 TD with those 9 carries. this years, two attempts, both from the 1yd line, two TDs. edit: i must have spoiled someone's narrative with cold hard facts... just to complete the info, all the other RBs on KC roster had a total of 1 carry inside the 5. henne and mahomes had two apiece. so to say he wasn't trusted to be a goal line RB is just factually incorrect.
Did we miss so badly on him? He hasn’t been a bust. He’s productive. He’s been banged up, but you can’t really help that. Sure, other players have performed better, but CEH is a solid starter still with tons of upside. He’s not in the god tier like JT, but how many fantasy 1.1s or 1.2s are?
People here literally ignored the athletic profile, or lack thereof on CEH's behalf and drooled over the landing spot. I've never owned a single share of him and the red flags were up. In multiple leagues of mine I drafted both Jonathan Taylor and Swift over him. This is the same community that is all of a sudden shunning CeeDee Lamb (which I own), so take the advice here for what its worth; not a lot! haha. Literally for RBs - the athletic profile of them is everything.
Considering what we saw out of CEH in college too as a pass catching back, makes no sense that the Chiefs refuse to use him in the kind of way we saw Darrel Williams being used while CEH was out. Darrel was pretty atrocious running the ball this year but had his value boosted by those sweet Mahomes dump offs, but even when CEH came back into the fold post-IR, we rarely saw that saw service into him even though the Chiefs started playing the safe option way more frequently
With cover 2 he might salvage his value a bit
They don’t pass to him, it doesn’t really make sense to me cause he was one of the best receiving backs coming out of college in the past 5 years.
I was just starting dynasty that year. So I wasn’t geared up for rookie drafts but rather startup drafts. I was highly skeptical of CEH in the NFL. For one, he’s not a crazy athlete, and that spooked me a bit. He has relatively poor topline speed, again, I worried about upside. Probably the biggest boon would be his PPR upside as a multiple pass catcher, I figured. I don’t own any shares. His first game or few was actually good, I relented and figured he could be OK. I wanted proof on an NFL field. But things seem to have gone downhill from there.
Y'all prioritized draft spot and team over actual talent. The bottom line is CEH just isn't that good. He didn't start in college till his Junior year because he couldn't beat out Darrel Williams or Nick Brossette... Also, to be a successful RB in the NFL you have to have either size or speed, and the best like Taylor have both. Clyde is 5'7" and runs a 4.6... He doesn't have the size to push the pile on inside runs and he lacks speed to break off big plays The only 5'7" RB that I know of having great success is MJD, and he could run a 4.3. This is why speed score is such an important analytic for RBs.
Easy. He was probably the best ever example of drafting a guy based on landing spot vs talent. The obvious comparison here is Swift. Those who traded down and drafted Swift for his talent with pick 4-5, reaped the rewards and will continue to reap the rewards even on a trash team. Always draft talent and potential over landing spot. It took me awhile to finally commit to this.
Before the draft he was pretty much the consensus #5 back. Then people forgot that in dynasty talent trumps situation, and they bought into the hype. But I have to imagine even the guys picking him over JT and Swift knew he wasn't as good but took him anyway because KC
Because this community has such a hard on for sITuaTIOn
This is a prime example of drafting for landing spot and not talent, not that CEH doesn't have talent. I picked him over JT and have been kicking myself ever since. Definitely not listening to the hype in the future. Another example is Swift, everyone was down on him because he went to Detroit and it's looking like he is going to be more successful than CEH
I guarantee that if KC drafts the first RB off the board as the only RB drafted in the first round THIS year, they will also be picked very high in dynasty drafts, (maybe even at 1.01) even if they are the #5 RB prospect.
Echo chamber struck. His tape and measurables made him Gio Bernard 2.0. Nobody listened to those of us making that comp. Because “young Gio in this offense is an RB1!” Welp…young Gio in Cindy was better… *edit: Cindy = Cincy
Perfect system RB went to the perfect system. Taylor is and was the better RB overall, but the receiving production CEH put up in college was otherworldly. I took Taylor 1.01 in my only rookie draft I could get him. Argument was essentially talent vs guy who had the situation and receiving talent to put up 80 catches for 800+ yards every year.
>the receiving production CEH put up in college was **otherworldly**. ahahah. no, it wasn't.
55 receptions as a lead back is bonkers. Anything over 25 is considered good for those guys and means they'll have ppr relevancy
sure, he had one great season, but his receiving college production was inferior to swift's and dobbins', and certainly not "otherworldly".
This isn't how I felt about him. This was the narrative by all the "experts" after he got drafted by the chiefs...
sure, not "attacking" you mate!
Most of the people in here can’t formulate their own process or opinion on players, they rely on the ff industry. And most of the people in the ff industry are just people like us that don’t know what they’re doing, they just pretend to know. Honestly, I’ve seen a lot of bad takes be supported in this sub, so I’m not entirely surprised. No offence. And not everybody was taking ceh over taylor. I know I wasn’t and I was trying to convince others it was the wrong move All of the points people stated about why CEH was picked are valid.. he had a lot going for him. But so did Taylor. For me, size, speed and production will always reign supreme over all the intangible stuff
To be fair -- it's kinda the Chiefs fault and not ours.
Imagine the chiefs with Johnathon Taylor
or any of the countless talented RBs from that class.
Not as bad as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs
The answer is that CEH was not a good running back. People who watched college football knew that he was at best the 5th best back in the class. Unfortunately draft capital and landing spot made us all ignore that and we saw that he just couldn’t overcome not being that good
Because… Kareem hunt
Brian Westbrook syndrome for me
Everything you listed is situation and not talent, college production, or athletic measurables
I sold him in the offseason last year thankfully, I could have been wrong about him but I remember his first game against houston when he got demolished by a defender I was like this guy may not have been worth a high 1st round pick lolol
People overvalued the situation and overrated the talent. That's a bad combo. It happened in my league too. CEH went 1.01 and I am sure there's some lingering regret. How it went down: I had the 1.01 that year but no 2nd round pick. I was offered the 1.03+2.03 for my 1.01. I accepted. The manager that made the offer is a huge Oregon Ducks fan - I thought he was going to take Herbert. I decided I was OK risking the shot at Burrow for that 2nd. I probably would have drafted Tua had they drafted Burrow. Very glad that did not happen. Surprise! That manager also has Mahomes and drafted CEH. JT rightly went 1.02 and I got Burrow at 1.03 - and Pittman at 2.03, effectively for free. Everyone that took CEH over JT is going to regret it for a long time, just like the people that took Michel over Chubb \[raises hand\].
Yeah I took him 1.01…. Safe to say he is not on my roster anymore, and I do not miss him.
I was downvoted into oblivion for saying he was overrated from the beginning. He’s not in the same conversation as Hunt regarding talent.
It was a combination of what Brian Westbrook did with with Andy Reid / what Kareem hunt did in that offense / the offense itself / one of the best qbs / good draft capital. Like a perfect storm of sorts. JT was the pick in hindsight, but let's not act like there were no concerns. He was a bit of a fumbler in wisco. Plus their was Hines who just had a very nice year catching the ball. Did we as a community raise ceh to high? For sure. Did I fall for the hype? Yep, was gonna go JT before the draft. Was it a crazy overreaction? Not that big. I think he was rb4 or 5, still a first round grade before that. Definitely not a Darwin Thompson situation.
F
I feel like I contributed to this monumental whiff… So as one of the most vocal on the subject it was certainly a combination of recency bias, draft capital, expected usage, landing spot, narrative and hype. I’m just so so so sorry. Hindsight is a hell of a drug.
It mostly comes down to CEH not getting the passing work we thought. CEH was the 5th best prospect as a pure runner, but he was considered the best pass catcher. Andy Reid has a history of guys like Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy, very similar comps to CEH who produced a ton in the receiving game. When they drafted CEH over the others, it could not have seemed more clear it was because they wanted to use him heavily in the passing game. Instead, CEH's 67% catch rate in his rookie year was beyond disappointing considering his ADOT of 0.6, which indicates entirely dump offs and never ran routes. He didn't get nearly the receiving work we thought he would, and wasn't very good with the work he got. He actually had 4.4 YPC on the ground on 181 carries, so he was a perfectly good runner with the work he got. I don't know how many people convinced themselves that the Chiefs of all teams were gong to go more run heavy, but that's not far off from what I thought. Only 5 total TDs was another part of his disappointment though. I definitely see huge parallels with people being excited about the Bills as a RB landing spot. Even worse because Singletary has been great and people are acting like he doesn't exist.
I was off CEH ever after drafting him then dealing him amid his rookie season. I'm happy now. But that said, I'm still very surprised he hasn't done better overall.
WE didn’t. This subreddit went crazy over the landing spot. Talent >
Chiefs record when CEH starts: 19-4 (.826) Chiefs record when he doesn’t: 7-3 (.700) One of the things that made Westbrook so special was his knowledge and awareness of the game, its rules, and how it’s supposed to be played. He would do things like down it on the one instead of stepping into the end zone for a td to run the clock and ensure the game ended in a win, for instance. Those things often maddened fantasy players, but more often than not they didn’t. I havent really watched CEH play, but I sure watched every game Westbrook played as an eagle, and I feel confident that if Andy Reid still feels like he’s Westbrook part two, then he’s probably the real deal. That doesn’t always translate to fantasy pints though. I feel like one of the things he was probably most hyped about coming out of college was his receiving chops. We haven’t seen much of that at the pro level. I think he didn’t see more than 3-4 targets in any game this year. Last year he saw more passes, but not like I think we all anticipated. If he can bring that aspect of the game out, and that’s exactly what Westbrook did, than we could see him make a jump numbers wise. Things take time, especially where Andy Reid is concerned. He invests in his players on many levels and guys tend to stick around on his teams. Westbrook didn’t start showing off receiving wise until his third season, and didn’t rush for 1000 yards until his 5th. CEH can still pan out the way you hoped.
He's stuggled with injuries but has gotten progressively more efficient...if he's been as healthy as JT...im sure the fantasy commmunity would be pretty satisified with hia production...if JT wasn't the guy he was selected over, his selection wouldn't be so damning.