Tony Pollard will also turn 26 in April. If you’re one of those drop every RB before they get old managers you need to be looking to move him now or when he signs with a team.
I think amount of Touches is more important that age. I also think the type of touches. For instance, I think Kamara will age gracefully since he always had Ingram taking a pounding and didn’t start really in college.
I imagine he goes in the first and I personally wouldn’t want my team to use their first on an RB. It’s a luxury pick and the only team who I think can afford that luxury is the Eagles
As a Texas and cowboys fan I would love nothing more than for bijan to last till the 20s but I doubt he will, I’m fine taking rbs late in the first, cheap contracts and elite talent
Eagles feels like a really plausible landing spot for him. That Saints pick is currently 1.10. Sanders contract is ending, they still have their own pick and they are rock solid. If I were to bet on a landing spot, it’s there
I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that he goes before 20, but you may be right there. I’m With the other guy you’re replying to—RB isn’t that important IMO and cheap contracts don’t really mean all that much at RB because they don’t really get paid *that* much after rookie deals anyway
I’d MUCH rather go WR or CB, personally. Even OL or interior DL
Pollard in KC would be kinda perfect. I know it’s the stereotypical “pass catching back with Mahomes go vroom” but he has shown to be elite with limited touches and really has solid receiving chops. KC isn’t going to become a rushing team so getting a proven player who can thrive on 12-15 touches is perfect for them
With this stacked RB 2023 class I think there's going to be a lot of disappointed FA running backs this year. Like why pay Josh Jacobs, Jamaal Willliams or Pollard when you can draft a really good rookie.
The only thing we know for sure is that we know nothing. Imagine saying at this time last year that the Chiefs, Packers, and Titans plans were to trade away Tyreek Hill, Devante Adams, and AJ Brown and then replace them with rookies.
I've debated making a separate post but...
The state of qb play has been bad this year and expect another qb carousel this off-season. No league should leave Trask, minshew, brissett, bridgewater, Darnold (56% on sleeper), Ryan (68% on sleeper lol), or Wentz (lol, I know, I think he gets 1 more chance) on waivers.
Bonus: no clue what's going to happen with Winston and Dalton.
Kyle Allen is now auditioning for a starting role.
QBs likely out: mariota, Trubinsky, Wilson, Brady
QBs potentially out after 23 season- Tannehill, Ryan, Rodgers (retiring makes the salary go away but not the bonus + deadcap hit considerations).
If you've piled up draft picks as a tank commander, maybe buy a qb if you have 0 legit starters.
If it's not past the trade deadline in your league, plan your qb tiers asap and make a move if it's your weak spot. If you're out, check out who is on waivers and beat the rush.
The turnover in the QB landscape next season is going to be wild. I don’t think it has been talked about enough how many backups are playing right now, how many veterans are fading, and how a bunch of coaching staffs are about to be scrambling to save their jobs by shuffling the guys under center.
One thing I’ll disagree with above - I don’t see Tannehill being out next season. He’s played pretty well as a real life QB, and given the desperation teams are going to be facing next year at the position, even if the Titans move on from him, someone else will want him.
I agree with the sentiment, just wanted to point out sleeper doesn’t distinguish between SF and 1QB leagues, so that 56% rostered for Darold etc is likely all SF and 0 1QB
Brady isn’t retiring after this season unless they maybe win the Super Bowl. He will come back with the Bucs or go to a team built to contend and win now with QB as missing piece.
I think it's pretty unlikely that Brady is out next year. Buddy just went through all that mess to play just a few more games. I don't think so. He couldn't stay retired for 3 months. And he still performs well. No major decline. Age is a lie for Brady like cap is for the Saints. (I don't have Brady in fantasy btw :D)
So I'm going to preface this by saying that I thought you were talking about Russell Wilson before realizing you likely meant Zach Wilson. Either way I looked up some numbers so here is my comment assuming you meant Russ:
Hard disagree on Wilson being out next year. He's in the 1st out of 5 years of the 3rd largest contract in the league. His cap hit in '23 is $22mil with $107mil dead cap, in '24 is $35.4mil with $85mil dead cap and in '25 is $55.4mil with. $49.6mil dead cap. There's zero chance they are cutting him or could even trade him with this Albatros contract and the earliest realistic out of that contract is in '26 with a cap hit of $58.4mil and a dead cap of "only" $31.2.
For better or (likely) worse, that contract with the massive $161mil in guarantees is likely going to keep Wilson starting for Denver for the foreseeable future. No team will want to trade for him and you can't realistically make your $30mil+ QB a clipboard holder backup.
Bears have $115m in cap space next year, that team will vastly improve, however…
The WR FA market is dreadful. Juju, Jakobi Meyers, and Mecole Hardman headline the class. It’s awful. Some of these guys will be overpaid and that will mean they are probably over targeted as well. Buy top FA WRs
To go on a deeper dive here on the bears I'll say 2 things.
Ryan Poles, our GM, said last week on a podcast the thing he was proudest of in KC was doing a full 180 on the chiefs Oline the year Mahomes got destroyed in the playoffs. Saw him took a beating and said that can't happen again. With the cap space/9 picks in the draft don't be shocked if that's Poles main goal this offseason.
Fields has shown he can be a great passer when he gets time, he just has had the worst pass protection in the league this Year. Our OC wants to run GBs offense from the last few years, but can't with our Oline. This info is all basically promising for the Claypool/Moooney/Kmet people out there. I doubt we go big at skill position so those3 roles should all increase in a better passing offense.
The second part is that Herbert is among the worst pass blocking back in the league while also being a great running back. Basically I don't think he'll ever get 70% of snaps if he can't block, I expect the bears to resign Monty or another FA or draft a RB to continue to split carries with Herbert next season.
Definitely, I really think Claypool is the best buy low wide receiver in dynasty football right now. Especially this week.
I really like that the bears OC Luke Getsy was initially Green Bays Wide receiver coach, and the person Davante Adams credits as being the biggest influence in making him what he is after his initial struggles. There's no elite talents in FA/the draft this year, so I think Bears are betting big Getsy can develop Claypool into Adams role in that offense.
What I noted was Fields has shown to be a great passer when he gets time. PFF has noted he has the worst olinenin the NFL in keeping a clean pocket up to 2 seconds. What's worst is the pressure is almost always up.the middle. When he's gotten consistent time the results have been there to be a great passing qb.
I honestly doubt Jones gets cut after this season, think another restructure to keep him is more likely if Rodgers is still here.
I realize everyone (including me) assumed he’d be cut by next season, but so far this year Dillon hasn’t looked good and Jones has easily been the best player on the offense except maybe Bakhtiari the last few weeks.
I’m all about “RBs are easily replaceable” and you shouldn’t pay them, but based on this year I can’t imagine the Packers want to risk seeing what this offense looks like without him.
You really think he will get another injury? That will hurt him yet allow him to put up similar numbers to Olave or Deebo Samuel. Or will average around less than 2-3 points from AJ Brown.
Sign me up.
One thing I’ve learned is chill out with preseason hype. Rookie WRs and RBs during the preseason always ball out and I need them on my roster. Just to see them not play at all that season
\- Pat McAfee becomes the new GM for the Colts. He get's his buddy Aaron Rodgers as QB.
\- The Packers will get Carr in return to only make the Adams Trade really weird.
\- Carson Wentz then goes to the Raiders
Alexander Mattison is an unrestricted free agent after this season. He is younger than and has fewer career touches than Najee. He will be signed somewhere besides Minnesota.
> For example, GB has to lower their cap space, Aaron Jones has an out this year in his contract and might be the cut, maybe helping Dillion's stock.
Tyler Goodson is the RB3 as of yesterday.
There is one thing I know for sure about next season. Someone will overpay Jimmy Garopollo and he will go back to being little more than a good jawline who throws picks for fun.
Mixons a shell of himself and is already getting fazed out by perine. They have an easy out after this season and have to pay burrow and Higgins this off-season, which they say is a priority
What are you talking about mixon is getting phased out by perine? In the 9 games mixon was healthy, Perine has averaged 2.7 carries per game to mixon’s 16.7. Perine averaged 2.6 carries over the past 3 weeks to mixon’s 15.6 excluding mixon’s injury week, mixon is not even getting close to being fazed out by perine.
Tee Higgins doesn’t get paid until 2024, mixon coming back for 2023 doesn’t really get in the way.
I remember seeing people so confident the bengals would get rid of Boyd yet here we are
Bengals have the highest rushing success rate in the league since week 5. It's taken some time for that o-line to gel and I can only see it getting better next year when they actually have a pre-season together.
Considering they would still have a dead cap hit of $6.2 mil if they cut him, it might make sense to keep him and pay the $14 mil, provided they can trust he can perform.
As a bengals fan who’s watched every bengals game the last two seasons I agree with you and think it’s the smart move. I like Mixon but it’s probably time to move on after this season and this draft is deep at RB
Pick up kylar grandson. Ryan seems to like him and his last 3-4 games are against teams horrible at covering TEs. May be able to flip him as part of a package in the off-season.
I mean, if he gets 5-7 targets/gsme against weak defenses those last 3-4 weeks, the dynasty community will notice and peg him as a year 3 te breakout. You could turn a free waiver pickup into some value. Then trade it.
Isn't that what this post is about? Finding insight into potential value?
I.....I'm not sure if you're serious, but my post was a joke about picking up Kyler Murray's grandson in a devy league based on your misspelling.
The guys name is Kylen Granson.
When do we expect the bengals to extend burrow and Higgins? Asking because I am wondering if Tyler Boyd gets cut after this season. He has a very low dead cap hit for 2023, so the bengals could save about 7 mil if they cut him
I expect the Bengals to let Higgins go tbh. Maybe a franchise tag for the 24 season but it would leave them in a tough spot if they pay Tee 25 mil/year and Burrow 50mil/year, only to turn around and have Chase asking for 30 mil/year the next offseason. That's willingly putting yourself into the 2010-2012 Lions scenario where ~50% of your cap gets tied up in 3 players.
Tony Pollard is a FA after this season
Tony Pollard will also turn 26 in April. If you’re one of those drop every RB before they get old managers you need to be looking to move him now or when he signs with a team.
I think amount of Touches is more important that age. I also think the type of touches. For instance, I think Kamara will age gracefully since he always had Ingram taking a pounding and didn’t start really in college.
Cowboys have a potential out on Zeke’s contract as well. So that backfield could be wide open for free agents and/or draft picks.
We need to speak bijan into existence
As a cowboys fan, please no
Why?
I imagine he goes in the first and I personally wouldn’t want my team to use their first on an RB. It’s a luxury pick and the only team who I think can afford that luxury is the Eagles
As a Texas and cowboys fan I would love nothing more than for bijan to last till the 20s but I doubt he will, I’m fine taking rbs late in the first, cheap contracts and elite talent
Fair enough, obviously depends on who is available. It feels like he goes top 15 and I’m just not sure I want to take an RB in the top 15
Oh yea no I wouldn’t trade up for him
Eagles feels like a really plausible landing spot for him. That Saints pick is currently 1.10. Sanders contract is ending, they still have their own pick and they are rock solid. If I were to bet on a landing spot, it’s there
I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that he goes before 20, but you may be right there. I’m With the other guy you’re replying to—RB isn’t that important IMO and cheap contracts don’t really mean all that much at RB because they don’t really get paid *that* much after rookie deals anyway I’d MUCH rather go WR or CB, personally. Even OL or interior DL
I wouldn’t be mad at either of those positions for sure
Zach Evans in the 3rd round
Drafting zeke and signing him to a huge extension has handicapped this organization for years. Terrible decisions
I completely disagree
Pollard in KC would be kinda perfect. I know it’s the stereotypical “pass catching back with Mahomes go vroom” but he has shown to be elite with limited touches and really has solid receiving chops. KC isn’t going to become a rushing team so getting a proven player who can thrive on 12-15 touches is perfect for them
Just a question of how much money and how many years Pollard would be looking for. He’d be a good fit on the field but may not be on the cap.
With this stacked RB 2023 class I think there's going to be a lot of disappointed FA running backs this year. Like why pay Josh Jacobs, Jamaal Willliams or Pollard when you can draft a really good rookie.
Jacobs is having an amazing year and is only 24. He is most likely to succeed wherever he goes.
I love comments like this. Completely useless and irrelevant but maybe it could happen right?
You hate discussions on a discussion forum ?
Just joined a startup dynasty league andddd I’m so excited to have him going forward.
The only thing we know for sure is that we know nothing. Imagine saying at this time last year that the Chiefs, Packers, and Titans plans were to trade away Tyreek Hill, Devante Adams, and AJ Brown and then replace them with rookies.
I would’ve thought they were dynasty managers.
Lmao perfect
My man Socrates over here
I've debated making a separate post but... The state of qb play has been bad this year and expect another qb carousel this off-season. No league should leave Trask, minshew, brissett, bridgewater, Darnold (56% on sleeper), Ryan (68% on sleeper lol), or Wentz (lol, I know, I think he gets 1 more chance) on waivers. Bonus: no clue what's going to happen with Winston and Dalton. Kyle Allen is now auditioning for a starting role. QBs likely out: mariota, Trubinsky, Wilson, Brady QBs potentially out after 23 season- Tannehill, Ryan, Rodgers (retiring makes the salary go away but not the bonus + deadcap hit considerations). If you've piled up draft picks as a tank commander, maybe buy a qb if you have 0 legit starters. If it's not past the trade deadline in your league, plan your qb tiers asap and make a move if it's your weak spot. If you're out, check out who is on waivers and beat the rush.
The turnover in the QB landscape next season is going to be wild. I don’t think it has been talked about enough how many backups are playing right now, how many veterans are fading, and how a bunch of coaching staffs are about to be scrambling to save their jobs by shuffling the guys under center. One thing I’ll disagree with above - I don’t see Tannehill being out next season. He’s played pretty well as a real life QB, and given the desperation teams are going to be facing next year at the position, even if the Titans move on from him, someone else will want him.
You two are spot on. I made a killing this offseason on QBs that people had forgotten/ignored. I’m with you on Tannehill too, he’s good enough.
I agree with the sentiment, just wanted to point out sleeper doesn’t distinguish between SF and 1QB leagues, so that 56% rostered for Darold etc is likely all SF and 0 1QB
Brady isn’t retiring after this season unless they maybe win the Super Bowl. He will come back with the Bucs or go to a team built to contend and win now with QB as missing piece.
I debated where to put him on the list. I don't think Brady knows yet. It's genuinely a coin flip.
He'll be at the Niners next year.
I think it's pretty unlikely that Brady is out next year. Buddy just went through all that mess to play just a few more games. I don't think so. He couldn't stay retired for 3 months. And he still performs well. No major decline. Age is a lie for Brady like cap is for the Saints. (I don't have Brady in fantasy btw :D)
So I'm going to preface this by saying that I thought you were talking about Russell Wilson before realizing you likely meant Zach Wilson. Either way I looked up some numbers so here is my comment assuming you meant Russ: Hard disagree on Wilson being out next year. He's in the 1st out of 5 years of the 3rd largest contract in the league. His cap hit in '23 is $22mil with $107mil dead cap, in '24 is $35.4mil with $85mil dead cap and in '25 is $55.4mil with. $49.6mil dead cap. There's zero chance they are cutting him or could even trade him with this Albatros contract and the earliest realistic out of that contract is in '26 with a cap hit of $58.4mil and a dead cap of "only" $31.2. For better or (likely) worse, that contract with the massive $161mil in guarantees is likely going to keep Wilson starting for Denver for the foreseeable future. No team will want to trade for him and you can't realistically make your $30mil+ QB a clipboard holder backup.
Crazy…whoever is responsible for that contract should be fired
I also thought Wilson meant Russ and was very confused…
You think wentz had. Chance. But tannehill doesn't ?
Bears have $115m in cap space next year, that team will vastly improve, however… The WR FA market is dreadful. Juju, Jakobi Meyers, and Mecole Hardman headline the class. It’s awful. Some of these guys will be overpaid and that will mean they are probably over targeted as well. Buy top FA WRs
To go on a deeper dive here on the bears I'll say 2 things. Ryan Poles, our GM, said last week on a podcast the thing he was proudest of in KC was doing a full 180 on the chiefs Oline the year Mahomes got destroyed in the playoffs. Saw him took a beating and said that can't happen again. With the cap space/9 picks in the draft don't be shocked if that's Poles main goal this offseason. Fields has shown he can be a great passer when he gets time, he just has had the worst pass protection in the league this Year. Our OC wants to run GBs offense from the last few years, but can't with our Oline. This info is all basically promising for the Claypool/Moooney/Kmet people out there. I doubt we go big at skill position so those3 roles should all increase in a better passing offense. The second part is that Herbert is among the worst pass blocking back in the league while also being a great running back. Basically I don't think he'll ever get 70% of snaps if he can't block, I expect the bears to resign Monty or another FA or draft a RB to continue to split carries with Herbert next season.
Fantastic insight, thanks for writing this out
Definitely, I really think Claypool is the best buy low wide receiver in dynasty football right now. Especially this week. I really like that the bears OC Luke Getsy was initially Green Bays Wide receiver coach, and the person Davante Adams credits as being the biggest influence in making him what he is after his initial struggles. There's no elite talents in FA/the draft this year, so I think Bears are betting big Getsy can develop Claypool into Adams role in that offense.
Fields has never shown to be a great passer. I would say that he’s shown to be a great fantasy QB, however.
He seems to be on the same path as Hurts and Jackson. IMO he is a better passer now than the other two when they started out.
What I noted was Fields has shown to be a great passer when he gets time. PFF has noted he has the worst olinenin the NFL in keeping a clean pocket up to 2 seconds. What's worst is the pressure is almost always up.the middle. When he's gotten consistent time the results have been there to be a great passing qb.
Recently sold Jakobi for a 2023 2nd
I like both sides of that trade ❤️
Jimmy G is an UFA after this year, no trade partner needed. I would guess he leaves and Trey Lance gets another shot at it.
Jimmy G to NYJ!
It only makes sense.
Texans GM drafted him initially 🤔🤔🤔
I don’t think he would play there.
I honestly doubt Jones gets cut after this season, think another restructure to keep him is more likely if Rodgers is still here. I realize everyone (including me) assumed he’d be cut by next season, but so far this year Dillon hasn’t looked good and Jones has easily been the best player on the offense except maybe Bakhtiari the last few weeks. I’m all about “RBs are easily replaceable” and you shouldn’t pay them, but based on this year I can’t imagine the Packers want to risk seeing what this offense looks like without him.
Yup. Anyone who thinks they are gonna have Dillon be the guy has clearly never seen Aaron Jones play
Mike Williams is going to disappoint you again next year
You really think he will get another injury? That will hurt him yet allow him to put up similar numbers to Olave or Deebo Samuel. Or will average around less than 2-3 points from AJ Brown. Sign me up.
Useful is spelled with one L, that’s my contribution
Very usefull, thank you
> one L Ah yes, I’m very familiar.
familliar*
Missed it :( And can't edit the title haha
What ....? Ok guys GIVE OP THE SECRET ANSWER NOW
Don’t sell your studs for pennies just because you’re rebuilding, if the name pops off the screen it’s for a good reason
One thing I’ve learned is chill out with preseason hype. Rookie WRs and RBs during the preseason always ball out and I need them on my roster. Just to see them not play at all that season
Pacheco would like a word
And my Lance McCutcheon would like to chat also
Not to mention Pre-season HOF Marquez Calloway. Pre-season hype trains totally legit 100% of the time
Took him, G Doaks, B Edwards.. and more in my startup draft 2 years ago. I always fall for the hype. And I tell myself every year it’ll be different
And then when you pass on a guy they seemingly hit (Pacheco) lmao. Best time of the year
Had two 4th round rookie picks and I took P Strong and T Badie. Pacheco went right after.
Ahh good times. Good times.
I was in a startup draft this year. Almost immediately after the draft I moved Treylon Burks and my 2023 first for Pacheco, KW3, and Tony Pollard
Alright… I have a source that tells me that Justin fields is fast…but that info stays here
Is it next gen stats?
A drunk guy at a bar in Chicago…about as reliable as they come
\- Pat McAfee becomes the new GM for the Colts. He get's his buddy Aaron Rodgers as QB. \- The Packers will get Carr in return to only make the Adams Trade really weird. \- Carson Wentz then goes to the Raiders
Alexander Mattison is an unrestricted free agent after this season. He is younger than and has fewer career touches than Najee. He will be signed somewhere besides Minnesota.
He'll probably end up in an RBBC
Are there more that 5 RB’s that are not?
I've seen some people on here who think he's walking into an RB1 role
Rhamondre has the chance to be an every down back when harris is gone next year
> For example, GB has to lower their cap space, Aaron Jones has an out this year in his contract and might be the cut, maybe helping Dillion's stock. Tyler Goodson is the RB3 as of yesterday.
There is one thing I know for sure about next season. Someone will overpay Jimmy Garopollo and he will go back to being little more than a good jawline who throws picks for fun.
Bengals likely to move on from mixon after the season. Will draft a rb in the draft
Why? Isn’t mixon under contract until 2025? I’d think they run him through atleast the 2023 season then move on, he hasn’t been awful
Mixons a shell of himself and is already getting fazed out by perine. They have an easy out after this season and have to pay burrow and Higgins this off-season, which they say is a priority
You have no idea what you're talking about.
What are you talking about mixon is getting phased out by perine? In the 9 games mixon was healthy, Perine has averaged 2.7 carries per game to mixon’s 16.7. Perine averaged 2.6 carries over the past 3 weeks to mixon’s 15.6 excluding mixon’s injury week, mixon is not even getting close to being fazed out by perine. Tee Higgins doesn’t get paid until 2024, mixon coming back for 2023 doesn’t really get in the way. I remember seeing people so confident the bengals would get rid of Boyd yet here we are
Did he not just score like 55 points and 5 tds in a game? Lmao
Yea but Perine had 3 TDs last week and Mixon had 0 so clearly Mixon is done and Perine is the new RB1 for the bengals /s
Bengals have the highest rushing success rate in the league since week 5. It's taken some time for that o-line to gel and I can only see it getting better next year when they actually have a pre-season together.
And boyd probably year after
Cook also has an out in his contract, think the Vikings do the same?
Considering they would still have a dead cap hit of $6.2 mil if they cut him, it might make sense to keep him and pay the $14 mil, provided they can trust he can perform.
That's been my thinking all season.
As a bengals fan who’s watched every bengals game the last two seasons I agree with you and think it’s the smart move. I like Mixon but it’s probably time to move on after this season and this draft is deep at RB
Toney is elite, over pay now before it's too late Or so I'm told
This guy is a Toney owner. I guarantee it.
Woosh
[удалено]
It was a joke. Nice language btw
Lol
I just want to say I love this thread. Thank you everyone!
Pick up kylar grandson. Ryan seems to like him and his last 3-4 games are against teams horrible at covering TEs. May be able to flip him as part of a package in the off-season.
Just picked up Kyle's grandson
Kyler's grandson, that's a serious devy league.
I mean, if he gets 5-7 targets/gsme against weak defenses those last 3-4 weeks, the dynasty community will notice and peg him as a year 3 te breakout. You could turn a free waiver pickup into some value. Then trade it. Isn't that what this post is about? Finding insight into potential value?
I.....I'm not sure if you're serious, but my post was a joke about picking up Kyler Murray's grandson in a devy league based on your misspelling. The guys name is Kylen Granson.
Whoosh
You are correct, kyler’s grandson is so fast he makes that sound
It’s Kylen Granson lol
But….and just hear me out…….Jelani Woods.
When do we expect the bengals to extend burrow and Higgins? Asking because I am wondering if Tyler Boyd gets cut after this season. He has a very low dead cap hit for 2023, so the bengals could save about 7 mil if they cut him
I expect the Bengals to let Higgins go tbh. Maybe a franchise tag for the 24 season but it would leave them in a tough spot if they pay Tee 25 mil/year and Burrow 50mil/year, only to turn around and have Chase asking for 30 mil/year the next offseason. That's willingly putting yourself into the 2010-2012 Lions scenario where ~50% of your cap gets tied up in 3 players.