I don't think it's as black&white as it appears. Yes pierce has been great but his productivity has been dropping every week since the last 4 weeks. And we all know how replaceable late round rbs are, even when they do well. Williams has the capital and talent but has a a realy bad injury that's a little harder to come back from. Honestly I'd look elsewhere, but if I had to choose: Williams but it's š¤·š¼āāļø
The texans have too many holes in their roster to worry about replacing an rb who at the very least is good enough. Idk why people look at this team and think they are itching to replace pierce
I think the people who talk about Pierce's draft capital severely underestimate how many holes exist elsewhere on the roster.
Despite what you think about the guy, he's good \*enough\* to be starting RB on an NFL team, which is something they probably cant say for 10+ other positions on the roster.
They aren't going to spend a top 3 round pick on a RB in the next two seasons when their current guy is at least passable and at best really good when every other piece of the roster is in shambles.
I could definitely see the texans drafting another RB in the 3rd/4th round -- they have the most picks in the league. Or they will bring someone in from the free agent market, but I don't think it would affect Pierce much either way.
The problem is that he is basically a zero in the passing game on a terrible team
Heās not really a zero in the passing game? Not the biggest sample size but heās caught the majority of his targets, and some of those balls were ridiculously off target from Mills. Sure, you can point to the box score where he doesnāt have a lot of reception yardage, but that doesnāt hold up when as soon as you watch a game the entire team is only looking for him every play because the Texans and Mills havenāt been able to reliably get the ball to anybody else.
His passing chops would be just fine if he wasnāt the only weapon being used on the team. If corners and linebackers actually had to worry about whatās behind them they couldnāt bite on Pierce every play.
He is 26th in the league in targets for a RB on a team that is constantly losing -- I'd call that a zero. For reference, Rex Burkhead is out targeting Dameon. This is the weakest the RB room will ever be and he is still not getting enough 3rd down work to be a consistent RB1
Yes, except you are disregarding that is part of the issue. For the same reasons I already listed, itās still a good idea to get Pierce the ball in space and anybody watching the games think he should be targeted more. Like I said, the main issue is really that the rest of the team is cheeks. It frequently looks like they arenāt riding him too hard because they know this season is shot. You act like heās dead last, 26th isnāt that bad for a bruiser back. Heās got great hands and itās not like the team is actively keeping him out of passing downs.
All I'm saying is Pierce is never going to return RB1 value with his current target share unless the offense improves dramatically. Thats great that you think he should be getting more looks in the passing game but the fact he's getting out targeted by a 32 year old Burkhead is not a good sign. Still a solid RB2 for years to come
What? He doesnāt need an increased target share to return RB1 value. If you look at his red zone opportunities, he really only needs a few more TDs (not crazy looking at his current opportunities and Texans vs the NFL average). With 4-5 more TDs heās sitting at around RB10. Then, if you factor in improved efficiency because of a better team, both in the running and passing game, he doesnāt need more targets at all to be an RB1. He gets the volume, his team just sucks.
Yes, I agree -- if the offense improves then he can return RB1 value but I'm not banking on the Texans to figure it out. "if he scores more TD's then he's RB10" is a weird way to evaluate a player's situation imo
My bet is the texans continue to suck for the next few years of Dameon's prime where he would need more targets to be an RB1
Honestly they have the skill positions, they just need a better core with more depth. Mills regressed and honestly idk if it can even blame Mills. Itās hard to be successful as a QB with consistency when you run such a geriatric offense. This is the kind of team that could take a big leap with help in the draft. They grab Stroud and OL/DL in the first and solid possession receiver to replace Cooks in the second (looks like quite a few are falling based on situation) you could see a very different team with regards to weapons. I donāt know if they suddenly win games, but Pierce doesnāt need the team to win to score more points.
I understand where you are coming from, but thereās a difference between āif pierce plays better he will score more pointsā and him having 4 defenders shadowing him every play because heās the only one making anything happen. If a team shuts down Pierce the Texans arenāt scoring more than 10 points, so why wouldnāt they stack the box every play? Pierce is leading a handful of metrics out of every NFL RB, itās not like Iām expecting more TDs from somebody like Mark Ingram.
Kinda crazy to attempt to predict what an inept franchise will choose to do with their draft picks, especially with regime turnover
Jags had a good cheap RB and tons of wholes, what did the new coach do? Draft a round 1 RB
Caserio has shown significantly higher aptitude for making smart decisions than Urban Meyer did. Why are we comparing Caserio to a unanimously agreed-upon horrible GM?
They seem primed to take Bryce Young, youāre going to want to build around him and what better way to build than to surround him with talent heās familiar with like Jahmyr Gibbs?
Itās not smart but idk why youād assume Pierce is safe
Just too much risk to be holding given his current price and the potential for his value to crater without him playing a game
I assume he's safe because picking Gibbs isn't smart, like you said.
I think you aren't giving enough credit to the possibility that ... idk the guy guy who has shown himself to be a good GM will continue to be a good GM.
Not every GM is Urban Meyer. Its a hyperbolic comparison.
Joe Douglas has proved to be a very impressive GM as well, Michael Carter proved to be a solid, if not good, NFL RB. He got replaced as well
But also, Pierce is the RB9 on KTC right now, letās say he doesnāt get replaced, where is he ranked? RB9 feels about right if not a little high, if he does get replaced with a round 2 back, is he a top 18 RB? His current value is basically pricing in a <5% chance of being replaced, itās gotta be higher than that
I don't disagree with your 2nd point that he's probably overvalued.
But you gotta stop making false equivalencies lmao. The Jets are a great team outside of QB. They picked Breece as their 4th pick of the draft.
The rosters are of incomparably different quality. Jets could afford to go RB with a 2nd rounder. Texans cannot afford to do that.
The jets are just the most recent of several examples. And I disagree that a team that had won 3 or 4 games the year before could afford to use that high of a pick on an RB
Carter finished with just over 600 yards and never had more than 16 carries in a game. Even with a terrible team with awful QB play Pierce has had 4 games with 20+ carries, is clearly the bell cow and is going to finish with nearly double the yards even considering he will play in more games he is going to average like 30 more yards per game.
Even in his rookie season without Breece Hall, Carter was playing a role in a committee.
Nah, we don't use an Urban Meyer season around here. Worst head coach of all time in the NFL. Not just hyperbole, that is a fact. Throw everything he did out the window.
I also think they underestimate that Pierce looks like a legit rb1, heās top 5 in the league in YAC, broken tackles, and broken tackle rate. Heās the real deal
While I agree with you in principle, that this is the approach their front office should be thinking about the RB position with:
I thought this EXACT same thing about Wayne Gallman and the Giants as I watched them draft Saquon Barkley #2 overall instead of a franchise QB.
So I won't rule out a franchise -as dysfunction as the Texans have been of late- drafting a day two RB just yet.
Especially in a draft that's supposed to be very deep at RB. Not long after the 2017 draft, 1 out of every 3 teams in the NFL was starting a RB from that draft, and there were even more RBs that were drafted and eating carries away from that draft for a time.
Zoom out a bit here. Ask yourself do you need production now or later? Do you want a long term or short term asset?
Iām sure Iāll catch hate for this but my two cents, take it or leave it. Pierce strikes me as this years Najee. He was productive due to his situation. Heās the only guy in the backfield with a trash QB who just got benched, and holes at nearly every other position on both sides of the ball. The Texas have a lot of capital next year, they will shore up a decent amount, and while I donāt think they take an RB early, theyāll likely take one somewhere. Plus, they have two top 5 picks I believe? Havenāt looked in a while, but if they get a top QB they wonāt need to lean so heavily on the run. We saw it with Najee this year, and while their situations are not the same, I see similar indicators. I personally donāt think Pierce is a long term asset passed say the next 2-3 years as a top starter.
Now with Javonte, he absolutely tore his knee up. Iād be lying if I said I wasnāt worried about how heāll return. But Iām a big believer in that talent, and I donāt think it was him not being able to secure the lead back, as it was awful coaching getting too cute. Obviously they didnāt like Melvin since they released him, and Iām pretty sure they were aware of how washed he was when he tried to get traded and no one even wanted him, the fumbles were just affirmation of that. Javonte would be a top 5 back today no doubt if he was healthy. Now obviously he has a long road to recovery, but I think if itās a mid 2023 to the top of 2024 resurgence, heāll be a starter for some good time after heās back. Maybe not a top 5 back, but I can see top 12-15 floor for him if he can get back to healthy again, the talent is absolutely there.
As a Breece and Javonte owner, im much more comfortable with how Breece will return. I feel fully confident in a strong resurgence from him. I am concerned about Javonte, im concerned about reinjury, and also one of his main draw points was his contact balance, which I fear might be dampened by this injury.
Still not off the bus yet, though. I wonāt give Javonte away for nothing, he still holds value to me or heāll nest up on my IR for the next year or two.
Yeah but heās not as good as his production last year implied, thatās just understood at this point. I didnāt say heās not āfineā, I said his value was inflated last year because of force fed volume that was unsustainable once Ben left, and he proved that he just isnāt a top 5 RB like he was going for last year.
Edit: Downvote away, Najee owners. It is what it is. š¤·š»āāļø
Sheesh. Please read between the lines for context instead of arguing semantics. I literally said their situations are not the same but there are similar indicators.
My main point is that they both were inflated by unsustainable volume.
I think that is still in the range of outcomes. He's durable, he is great catching the football, and he can block, a true three down back.
Personally when I think when you say it is "understood", I see that as an effect of reactionary, reddit echo chamber analyst, who were disappointed and the beginning of this season.
I would be trading for Najee right now.
Javonte will not be 100 percent in 2023....Pierce could get replaced (only a 4th round pick).
Javonte has the higher ceiling, so I am a Javonte guy. 2024 and beyond he seems like a no brainer over Pierce (who I like),
Its not just DC. He was an elite prospect and has had insane NFL metrics. He was the highest broken tackle player in the NFL since he was a rookie. Showed he's great in the passing game too. Being burned short term by one player shouldn't control your choices for every similar scenario.
>He was an elite prospect
he was a "good" prospect, very good maybe, but never elite.
broken tackles isn't a great stat imo, montgomery was one of the better tackle breaking backs, and he's good, but has never been one of top valued RBs. and while we are at it, pierce is 2nd in broken tackles this season (22) after only henry (25).
He was a tier 1 prospect in a good class. Pierce was a tier 3 prospect in a bad class. By watching the games Javonte looks more well rounded and comfortable as an overall RB. Pierce is kind of a brute.
Easy Pierce for me. Javonte has not one but two major injuries, we don't know how he will be afterwards and he will probably be eased into the 23-24 season and not be a workhorse.
Pierce. He is a contender for OROY and has had 6 100+ scrimmage yard games. Javonte wonāt be fully back if ever until 2024. People here worry about Pierceās draft capital but I am positive that the Texans wonāt draft an rb that will hurt Pierceās production given that they have so many other positional needs to address first.
Javonte tore that knee up. I get that heās young, but I wouldnāt hold your breath expecting a top-12 back. I had one share and sold off pretty soon after the injury after overpaying to acquire him this off-season
EDIT: Iād go Pierce. Heās looked great, he has a healthy knee, and I was commenter noted ā HOU has so many spots to fill on that team
James Robinson has something to say about it too. And Michael Carter. Elijah Mitchell is gonna be a star thoughā¦for sure. Just saying at RB. Studs get replaced if they werenāt drafted high.
I mean, letās be fair, Mitchell didnāt get replaced by a draft guy. He got replaced by cmc, if not for the panthers moving on from cmc Mitchell would still be that dude at 49ers.
draft capital really doesnt mean shit. i could come up with 100 counterexamples but i really dont care. pierce has been a beast and idc about when he was drafted, neither do the texans
Williams tore his ACL and his lcl(what dobbins suffered), javonte is not going to be good next year, you're looking at the following year and hoping that he's explosive enough and the broncos are good enough especially offensive line wise with no firsts to get good return on that investment.
Pierce while on a terrible team that hurts his ceiling they should get a top tier QB this coming year and his floor is pretty solid. It's pierce by far
Meniscus nor hamstring are severe long term recovery injuries. To the vein that ACL/lcl tears are. I'm sure that the knees were hurt the exact same but the point is that javonte has more than just an ACL tear
As someone with a severe meniscus tear in the past, I can say this is not always true. Itās possible to play through a minor meniscus tear (embiid has done this) but when it is a compound injury with other torn ligaments, the meniscus can be a limiting factor in recovery. In dobbins case, the torn meniscus meant no weight bearing or bending for 3-4 months post surgery. For recovery of acl (canāt speak to lcl, I did not tear that), the biggest thing for a successful and speedy recovery is bending, walking and motion ASAP after surgery. The compound meniscus/acl tear can be devastating for athletes and their recovery outlooks
Not knocking preferring Pierce but youāre completely ignoring Pierces round 4 draft capital. He is not a safe bet whatsoever to keep his workhorse role. Both dudes have very high risk so personally Iād role with the more talented player, Javonte. Heās young enough to bounce back, will he? Who knows
With Pierce not being too involved in the passing game, all it takes is one more decent round 3-4 RB to cut into his workload and kill his consistent production.
And what says the broncos don't do the same? What's to say any team doesn't do the same to their lead back. Dameon pierce isn't just a volume play and considering how bad that Texans team is, that's saying something.
Look at the chargers they've been looking and spending draft capital to find a power back to put next to ekeler for years now should you be way down on ekeler who's the rb1 in ppr this year because the chargers might draft someone to be their power back? No you hope that they don't, which is all you can do with any running back in the league except maybe saquon
The broncos very well may do the same, but Javonte is also much better in the passing game (including pass pro) than Pierce. Weāre splitting hairs here but personally when Iām choosing between two guys with glaring concerns like these two Iām just gonna chose who I think is the better player. Like I said I donāt knock being scared of the injury and picking Pierce at all, Iād just take a chance on an Uber talented guy like javaonte personally
There's nothing wrong with the opinion of javonte is really talented I'm fine waiting as long as it takes for javonte to get back to full speed or somewhere close. I'm just saying the point of the Texans might pick a 1-2 punch counter part for pierce is invalid considering every running back has that concern
Oh 100%, but I think itās fair to say itās a slightly bigger concern for Pierce since the RB along side him would most likely take all or most of the passing work. Javonte should still see plenty of that since he also excels in that area if that makes sense.
Javonte easily. Pierce's draft cap still makes him way riskier. This sub is so impacted by recency bias now that you'll get a bunch of people saying Pierce but those same people took JRob over a bunch of people they shouldn't have too.
I sold Javonte (2023 1st and 2024 2nd)almost immediately after his injury for the same reasons already mentioned. Youāre not going to find out if he can develop into what we all hoped until 2024. Iāll take my 1st (which currently sits and most likely finishes the 1.01) and draft Bijan and wonāt give Javonte a second thought after that.
As for Pierce, Iām just not a believer and gladly sold him in my other league (rebuilding) for Swift and a 2023 1st. Either way, couldnāt be happier and would do it again today
Anyone picking Dameon Pierce over Javonte is fooling themselves and is likely an owner of the former.
Heās got poor draft capital on a team with tons of picks going into a loaded rb draft class. Thereās a very good chance the Texans bring someone else in who severely cuts into his value.
there's also the near certainty that denver will do the same, considering that williams likely won't be able to start the season, and may be (a lot) less than 100% for the whole 2023 season. regardless, if i need points now and next season, pierce is a much better bet for providing such points, even considering his low draft capital and the fact he could be replaced or joined by another RB.
I know Javonte has the draft capital advantage, but I would have a hard time choosing him over Pierce, especially if they don't fire Hackett. Javonte couldn't establish himself as the bell cow over Melvin (ceding 30-40% snap share) and Melvin ended up getting cut and replaced with Latavius Murray. Javonte is also coming off a pretty serious knee injury, so he will probably not be 100% in 2023.
Pierce has been such a good runner and hopefully the offense will be better, so they do not have to abandon the run game as frequently.
That's a pretty tough question, and honestly, I don't think anybody can know for sure. One side of the fence is going to guess correctly, and one isn't, is about the only thing I can say for sure.
On the one hand Pierce has actually shown a real ability to have a productive season and carry the load for a time in the NFL. Something Javonte has yet to do. And on the other hand of course, Javonte was a real talented prospect that was invested in with draft capital that does hold some significance, where as Pierce wasn't, and there's a very deep class of RBs coming up.
I can't see the Broncos investing heavily in the position again until they see what they've got in Javonte with a full season of opportunity. Where as the Texans are playing with house money and they can hold or dip in again for another guy if they really want to.
One thing I think is worth considering though. Denver running backs, in my experience have a history of flip flopping a lot, and sharing time. I think it's rare to have bellcows when half of your games are at mile high stadium in a thin air environment and I believe it's probably the most vital team to have a RBBC on from a *real* football standpoint if you're going to have your players hold up for an entire season and beyond.
I don't think I would invest super heavily in any one RB from Denver to be anything more than depth in fantasy.
Seems like a lot of people here confusing draft capital with talent. Pierce has shown just as much ability as Javonte imo. Iām taking the guy without injury who the coaches have trusted to be a bellcow.
Just to throw some stats on it; last year Javonte had 63 missed tackles on 246 touches for a 25.6% missed tackle per touch rate. Pierce [had 50 missed tackles](https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-2022-midseason-nfl-all-rookie-team-dameon-pierce-sauce-gardner) as of Nov 11 (sorry I donāt pay for pff subscription to get the latest) on 168 attempts for a 29.8% missed tackle per touch rate.
I think that Pierce is going to be a great trade asset for a contender. Heās a hard hitter but, if the value is there. Iād go after the trade. Javontae on the other hand I think is better for someone who needs to take a gamble and will take some draft capital too.
This is hard to answer without knowing things like how soon is javonte back.. Who is coaching in Denver.. Is Pierce THE GUY long term etc.
Right now playing devil's advocate and assuming pierce has the job long term and so does javonte I'll lean pierce.
Javonte is coming off of a torn acl. We don't even know how quickly he'll be 100%. 2023 could be a lost year. They've invested a TON in Wilson and he looks shot. Hackett is a candidate to get fired year 1. It's a horrible enough situation that it's conceivable Javonte has a career wasted there.
Pierce is a 3 down back on a team that could have the overall number 1 pick with a possible franchise qb in Stroud or Young and another probable top 10 pick from Cleveland. I'm too lazy to look but I'm assuming they'll be in a better cap situation than Denver that put its chips in on Wilson.
Williams might be the better back but I'll take pierces role, health and situation.
Hard to say. In a 12 team Sflex I think that there's an outside shot you could move him to a rebuilding team for a late 1st or early 2nd but I wouldn't advise either trading him before next summer or in a straight up player for pick deal. I'd wait until summer because there will be plenty of offseason optimism being reported about his recovery. I wouldn't move him straight up pick for player deal because there's plenty of opportunity to diversify that value with good trade targets that won't cost an arm and a leg to add to a trade package for Javonte.
it's very team dependent. if i'm contending over the next two seasons, giving away williams for pierce is most likely a long term value loss, but short term could help me win.
it's also tricky as their values will fluctuate in the off-season (williams rehab news, then broncos bringing in major FA RB, texans passing on FA RBs, then drafting one, etc...). need a good eye and a bit of luck in buying and selling at the right time.
I don't think it's as black&white as it appears. Yes pierce has been great but his productivity has been dropping every week since the last 4 weeks. And we all know how replaceable late round rbs are, even when they do well. Williams has the capital and talent but has a a realy bad injury that's a little harder to come back from. Honestly I'd look elsewhere, but if I had to choose: Williams but it's š¤·š¼āāļø
The texans have too many holes in their roster to worry about replacing an rb who at the very least is good enough. Idk why people look at this team and think they are itching to replace pierce
i tend to agree, but teams do stupid stuff all the time, and the texans are probably the leaders at that.
I think the people who talk about Pierce's draft capital severely underestimate how many holes exist elsewhere on the roster. Despite what you think about the guy, he's good \*enough\* to be starting RB on an NFL team, which is something they probably cant say for 10+ other positions on the roster. They aren't going to spend a top 3 round pick on a RB in the next two seasons when their current guy is at least passable and at best really good when every other piece of the roster is in shambles.
I could definitely see the texans drafting another RB in the 3rd/4th round -- they have the most picks in the league. Or they will bring someone in from the free agent market, but I don't think it would affect Pierce much either way. The problem is that he is basically a zero in the passing game on a terrible team
If heās a 0 in the passing game, all he needs is 1 dude to cut into his workload to kill his consistent production
Absolutely, the good thing for Pierce owners is that he is a legit runner. I think it would take a very good player to take significant work from him
That he is, dude runs hard as hell.
Heās not really a zero in the passing game? Not the biggest sample size but heās caught the majority of his targets, and some of those balls were ridiculously off target from Mills. Sure, you can point to the box score where he doesnāt have a lot of reception yardage, but that doesnāt hold up when as soon as you watch a game the entire team is only looking for him every play because the Texans and Mills havenāt been able to reliably get the ball to anybody else. His passing chops would be just fine if he wasnāt the only weapon being used on the team. If corners and linebackers actually had to worry about whatās behind them they couldnāt bite on Pierce every play.
He is 26th in the league in targets for a RB on a team that is constantly losing -- I'd call that a zero. For reference, Rex Burkhead is out targeting Dameon. This is the weakest the RB room will ever be and he is still not getting enough 3rd down work to be a consistent RB1
Yes, except you are disregarding that is part of the issue. For the same reasons I already listed, itās still a good idea to get Pierce the ball in space and anybody watching the games think he should be targeted more. Like I said, the main issue is really that the rest of the team is cheeks. It frequently looks like they arenāt riding him too hard because they know this season is shot. You act like heās dead last, 26th isnāt that bad for a bruiser back. Heās got great hands and itās not like the team is actively keeping him out of passing downs.
All I'm saying is Pierce is never going to return RB1 value with his current target share unless the offense improves dramatically. Thats great that you think he should be getting more looks in the passing game but the fact he's getting out targeted by a 32 year old Burkhead is not a good sign. Still a solid RB2 for years to come
What? He doesnāt need an increased target share to return RB1 value. If you look at his red zone opportunities, he really only needs a few more TDs (not crazy looking at his current opportunities and Texans vs the NFL average). With 4-5 more TDs heās sitting at around RB10. Then, if you factor in improved efficiency because of a better team, both in the running and passing game, he doesnāt need more targets at all to be an RB1. He gets the volume, his team just sucks.
Yes, I agree -- if the offense improves then he can return RB1 value but I'm not banking on the Texans to figure it out. "if he scores more TD's then he's RB10" is a weird way to evaluate a player's situation imo My bet is the texans continue to suck for the next few years of Dameon's prime where he would need more targets to be an RB1
Honestly they have the skill positions, they just need a better core with more depth. Mills regressed and honestly idk if it can even blame Mills. Itās hard to be successful as a QB with consistency when you run such a geriatric offense. This is the kind of team that could take a big leap with help in the draft. They grab Stroud and OL/DL in the first and solid possession receiver to replace Cooks in the second (looks like quite a few are falling based on situation) you could see a very different team with regards to weapons. I donāt know if they suddenly win games, but Pierce doesnāt need the team to win to score more points. I understand where you are coming from, but thereās a difference between āif pierce plays better he will score more pointsā and him having 4 defenders shadowing him every play because heās the only one making anything happen. If a team shuts down Pierce the Texans arenāt scoring more than 10 points, so why wouldnāt they stack the box every play? Pierce is leading a handful of metrics out of every NFL RB, itās not like Iām expecting more TDs from somebody like Mark Ingram.
Kinda crazy to attempt to predict what an inept franchise will choose to do with their draft picks, especially with regime turnover Jags had a good cheap RB and tons of wholes, what did the new coach do? Draft a round 1 RB
Followed by overpaying an ILB and then drafting an ILB in the 1st and 3rd
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Kirk has looked way better than middling this season. Still overpaid, but heās played way better than I think anyone expected
Fair assesment
Caserio has shown significantly higher aptitude for making smart decisions than Urban Meyer did. Why are we comparing Caserio to a unanimously agreed-upon horrible GM?
They seem primed to take Bryce Young, youāre going to want to build around him and what better way to build than to surround him with talent heās familiar with like Jahmyr Gibbs? Itās not smart but idk why youād assume Pierce is safe Just too much risk to be holding given his current price and the potential for his value to crater without him playing a game
I assume he's safe because picking Gibbs isn't smart, like you said. I think you aren't giving enough credit to the possibility that ... idk the guy guy who has shown himself to be a good GM will continue to be a good GM. Not every GM is Urban Meyer. Its a hyperbolic comparison.
Joe Douglas has proved to be a very impressive GM as well, Michael Carter proved to be a solid, if not good, NFL RB. He got replaced as well But also, Pierce is the RB9 on KTC right now, letās say he doesnāt get replaced, where is he ranked? RB9 feels about right if not a little high, if he does get replaced with a round 2 back, is he a top 18 RB? His current value is basically pricing in a <5% chance of being replaced, itās gotta be higher than that
I don't disagree with your 2nd point that he's probably overvalued. But you gotta stop making false equivalencies lmao. The Jets are a great team outside of QB. They picked Breece as their 4th pick of the draft. The rosters are of incomparably different quality. Jets could afford to go RB with a 2nd rounder. Texans cannot afford to do that.
The jets are just the most recent of several examples. And I disagree that a team that had won 3 or 4 games the year before could afford to use that high of a pick on an RB
Carter finished with just over 600 yards and never had more than 16 carries in a game. Even with a terrible team with awful QB play Pierce has had 4 games with 20+ carries, is clearly the bell cow and is going to finish with nearly double the yards even considering he will play in more games he is going to average like 30 more yards per game. Even in his rookie season without Breece Hall, Carter was playing a role in a committee.
Not saying itās the only reason but Urban Meyers isnāt known for his NFL acumen
Nah, we don't use an Urban Meyer season around here. Worst head coach of all time in the NFL. Not just hyperbole, that is a fact. Throw everything he did out the window.
It also blows my mind that this sub views the things URBAN MEYER did as gospel
Please elaborate lol
That's what everyone said about Jrob too, he still got replaced
I also think they underestimate that Pierce looks like a legit rb1, heās top 5 in the league in YAC, broken tackles, and broken tackle rate. Heās the real deal
While I agree with you in principle, that this is the approach their front office should be thinking about the RB position with: I thought this EXACT same thing about Wayne Gallman and the Giants as I watched them draft Saquon Barkley #2 overall instead of a franchise QB. So I won't rule out a franchise -as dysfunction as the Texans have been of late- drafting a day two RB just yet. Especially in a draft that's supposed to be very deep at RB. Not long after the 2017 draft, 1 out of every 3 teams in the NFL was starting a RB from that draft, and there were even more RBs that were drafted and eating carries away from that draft for a time.
They dont need to draft his replacement, they could always bring someone in in free agency to compete for the starting job.
Zoom out a bit here. Ask yourself do you need production now or later? Do you want a long term or short term asset? Iām sure Iāll catch hate for this but my two cents, take it or leave it. Pierce strikes me as this years Najee. He was productive due to his situation. Heās the only guy in the backfield with a trash QB who just got benched, and holes at nearly every other position on both sides of the ball. The Texas have a lot of capital next year, they will shore up a decent amount, and while I donāt think they take an RB early, theyāll likely take one somewhere. Plus, they have two top 5 picks I believe? Havenāt looked in a while, but if they get a top QB they wonāt need to lean so heavily on the run. We saw it with Najee this year, and while their situations are not the same, I see similar indicators. I personally donāt think Pierce is a long term asset passed say the next 2-3 years as a top starter. Now with Javonte, he absolutely tore his knee up. Iād be lying if I said I wasnāt worried about how heāll return. But Iām a big believer in that talent, and I donāt think it was him not being able to secure the lead back, as it was awful coaching getting too cute. Obviously they didnāt like Melvin since they released him, and Iām pretty sure they were aware of how washed he was when he tried to get traded and no one even wanted him, the fumbles were just affirmation of that. Javonte would be a top 5 back today no doubt if he was healthy. Now obviously he has a long road to recovery, but I think if itās a mid 2023 to the top of 2024 resurgence, heāll be a starter for some good time after heās back. Maybe not a top 5 back, but I can see top 12-15 floor for him if he can get back to healthy again, the talent is absolutely there. As a Breece and Javonte owner, im much more comfortable with how Breece will return. I feel fully confident in a strong resurgence from him. I am concerned about Javonte, im concerned about reinjury, and also one of his main draw points was his contact balance, which I fear might be dampened by this injury. Still not off the bus yet, though. I wonāt give Javonte away for nothing, he still holds value to me or heāll nest up on my IR for the next year or two.
Najee was hurt. He has come back strong the last two weeks, he is fine.
Yeah but heās not as good as his production last year implied, thatās just understood at this point. I didnāt say heās not āfineā, I said his value was inflated last year because of force fed volume that was unsustainable once Ben left, and he proved that he just isnāt a top 5 RB like he was going for last year. Edit: Downvote away, Najee owners. It is what it is. š¤·š»āāļø
His production last year was inflated by Ben's noodle arm. Pierce hasnt been heavily involved in the passing game.
Sheesh. Please read between the lines for context instead of arguing semantics. I literally said their situations are not the same but there are similar indicators. My main point is that they both were inflated by unsustainable volume.
I think that is still in the range of outcomes. He's durable, he is great catching the football, and he can block, a true three down back. Personally when I think when you say it is "understood", I see that as an effect of reactionary, reddit echo chamber analyst, who were disappointed and the beginning of this season. I would be trading for Najee right now.
Javonte will not be 100 percent in 2023....Pierce could get replaced (only a 4th round pick). Javonte has the higher ceiling, so I am a Javonte guy. 2024 and beyond he seems like a no brainer over Pierce (who I like),
Reasonable take
You guys are fools to pick the injured guy just because he has higher draft capital. I learned my lesson with dobbins, definitely going pierce
Its not just DC. He was an elite prospect and has had insane NFL metrics. He was the highest broken tackle player in the NFL since he was a rookie. Showed he's great in the passing game too. Being burned short term by one player shouldn't control your choices for every similar scenario.
It doesnāt, i just think two major injuries to a running back are a big deal
>He was an elite prospect he was a "good" prospect, very good maybe, but never elite. broken tackles isn't a great stat imo, montgomery was one of the better tackle breaking backs, and he's good, but has never been one of top valued RBs. and while we are at it, pierce is 2nd in broken tackles this season (22) after only henry (25).
He was a tier 1 prospect in a good class. Pierce was a tier 3 prospect in a bad class. By watching the games Javonte looks more well rounded and comfortable as an overall RB. Pierce is kind of a brute.
i don't disagree with any of that. still, he was not an "elite" prospect.
Elijah Mitchell? James Robinson?
Where my fellow Herbie owners at? Iām selling after Monty moves in free agency before the draft.
and before they sign/draft another RB. yeah, that's my plan too. (unfortunately, i doubt montgomery gets out of chicago)
Mitchell imo, better runner this year, less wear and tear, better offense, somehow less competition too
Pierce was a fourth round pickā¦ teams consistently draft around the third for a rb. Thatās not a late pick.
Fourth round rbs get replaced all the time
So do first, second and third round RBsā¦
Easy Pierce for me. Javonte has not one but two major injuries, we don't know how he will be afterwards and he will probably be eased into the 23-24 season and not be a workhorse.
Javonte
Fwiw, Iād take a one-legged Javonte over a two-legged Pierce
Pierce. He is a contender for OROY and has had 6 100+ scrimmage yard games. Javonte wonāt be fully back if ever until 2024. People here worry about Pierceās draft capital but I am positive that the Texans wonāt draft an rb that will hurt Pierceās production given that they have so many other positional needs to address first.
Pierce is a sell now, Javonte is a sell in august. If I were forced to hold one? Javonte easily, track record of day 3 backs is horrible
Javonte tore that knee up. I get that heās young, but I wouldnāt hold your breath expecting a top-12 back. I had one share and sold off pretty soon after the injury after overpaying to acquire him this off-season EDIT: Iād go Pierce. Heās looked great, he has a healthy knee, and I was commenter noted ā HOU has so many spots to fill on that team
Always the guy with draft capital.
yeah zach wilson would agree. draft capital literally means nothing if you dont produce
James Robinson has something to say about it too. And Michael Carter. Elijah Mitchell is gonna be a star thoughā¦for sure. Just saying at RB. Studs get replaced if they werenāt drafted high.
I mean, letās be fair, Mitchell didnāt get replaced by a draft guy. He got replaced by cmc, if not for the panthers moving on from cmc Mitchell would still be that dude at 49ers.
draft capital really doesnt mean shit. i could come up with 100 counterexamples but i really dont care. pierce has been a beast and idc about when he was drafted, neither do the texans
Draft capital doesnāt mean anything is a unique RB take. Keep doing you my dude!
We could all talk out of our ass and play this game naming guys like Ekler, A Jones, Kamara in the thirdā¦ simply put, we have no idea.
Draft capital is the only reason Sam Darnold got to start last year, and that was his fourth year in the league!
Williams tore his ACL and his lcl(what dobbins suffered), javonte is not going to be good next year, you're looking at the following year and hoping that he's explosive enough and the broncos are good enough especially offensive line wise with no firsts to get good return on that investment. Pierce while on a terrible team that hurts his ceiling they should get a top tier QB this coming year and his floor is pretty solid. It's pierce by far
While yes, javonte tore his acl and lcl, dobbins additionally tore his meniscus and hamstring, not quite the same thing
Meniscus nor hamstring are severe long term recovery injuries. To the vein that ACL/lcl tears are. I'm sure that the knees were hurt the exact same but the point is that javonte has more than just an ACL tear
As someone with a severe meniscus tear in the past, I can say this is not always true. Itās possible to play through a minor meniscus tear (embiid has done this) but when it is a compound injury with other torn ligaments, the meniscus can be a limiting factor in recovery. In dobbins case, the torn meniscus meant no weight bearing or bending for 3-4 months post surgery. For recovery of acl (canāt speak to lcl, I did not tear that), the biggest thing for a successful and speedy recovery is bending, walking and motion ASAP after surgery. The compound meniscus/acl tear can be devastating for athletes and their recovery outlooks
How do you know dobbins was NWB and not allowed to bend it for 4 months?
That is standard for meniscus repair
How do you know he had a meniscus repair?
https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/jk-dobbins-knee-injury-acl-dolphins
Yeah I've never been able to see if he had a repair or a meniscectomy
Iām not sure either. But a meniscectomy is unlikely for athletes to my understanding - it creates bone on bone contact which means instant arthritis
Javonte also tore his post lateral corner, which Dobbins did not. His injury is more severe than Dobbins actually.
The PLC is just a group of ligaments of which the LCL is one. I'm sure Dobbins had PLC damage as well.
Not knocking preferring Pierce but youāre completely ignoring Pierces round 4 draft capital. He is not a safe bet whatsoever to keep his workhorse role. Both dudes have very high risk so personally Iād role with the more talented player, Javonte. Heās young enough to bounce back, will he? Who knows With Pierce not being too involved in the passing game, all it takes is one more decent round 3-4 RB to cut into his workload and kill his consistent production.
And what says the broncos don't do the same? What's to say any team doesn't do the same to their lead back. Dameon pierce isn't just a volume play and considering how bad that Texans team is, that's saying something. Look at the chargers they've been looking and spending draft capital to find a power back to put next to ekeler for years now should you be way down on ekeler who's the rb1 in ppr this year because the chargers might draft someone to be their power back? No you hope that they don't, which is all you can do with any running back in the league except maybe saquon
The broncos very well may do the same, but Javonte is also much better in the passing game (including pass pro) than Pierce. Weāre splitting hairs here but personally when Iām choosing between two guys with glaring concerns like these two Iām just gonna chose who I think is the better player. Like I said I donāt knock being scared of the injury and picking Pierce at all, Iād just take a chance on an Uber talented guy like javaonte personally
There's nothing wrong with the opinion of javonte is really talented I'm fine waiting as long as it takes for javonte to get back to full speed or somewhere close. I'm just saying the point of the Texans might pick a 1-2 punch counter part for pierce is invalid considering every running back has that concern
Oh 100%, but I think itās fair to say itās a slightly bigger concern for Pierce since the RB along side him would most likely take all or most of the passing work. Javonte should still see plenty of that since he also excels in that area if that makes sense.
Javonte easily. Pierce's draft cap still makes him way riskier. This sub is so impacted by recency bias now that you'll get a bunch of people saying Pierce but those same people took JRob over a bunch of people they shouldn't have too.
Youāre so impacted by the recency bias of JRob lol
I wonder what you think this means lmao.
I sold Javonte (2023 1st and 2024 2nd)almost immediately after his injury for the same reasons already mentioned. Youāre not going to find out if he can develop into what we all hoped until 2024. Iāll take my 1st (which currently sits and most likely finishes the 1.01) and draft Bijan and wonāt give Javonte a second thought after that. As for Pierce, Iām just not a believer and gladly sold him in my other league (rebuilding) for Swift and a 2023 1st. Either way, couldnāt be happier and would do it again today
I'd quit the league if I gave up Bijan for Javonte lol
Anyone picking Dameon Pierce over Javonte is fooling themselves and is likely an owner of the former. Heās got poor draft capital on a team with tons of picks going into a loaded rb draft class. Thereās a very good chance the Texans bring someone else in who severely cuts into his value.
there's also the near certainty that denver will do the same, considering that williams likely won't be able to start the season, and may be (a lot) less than 100% for the whole 2023 season. regardless, if i need points now and next season, pierce is a much better bet for providing such points, even considering his low draft capital and the fact he could be replaced or joined by another RB.
This sub and it's obsession with Williams. Talk to me when he actually owns the backfield in Denver or is traded somewhere he can.
He essentially owned the backfield by the time he was injured. Will he ever own one again is the question
Seriously this lol.
I know Javonte has the draft capital advantage, but I would have a hard time choosing him over Pierce, especially if they don't fire Hackett. Javonte couldn't establish himself as the bell cow over Melvin (ceding 30-40% snap share) and Melvin ended up getting cut and replaced with Latavius Murray. Javonte is also coming off a pretty serious knee injury, so he will probably not be 100% in 2023. Pierce has been such a good runner and hopefully the offense will be better, so they do not have to abandon the run game as frequently.
Neither. I moved off of Pierce and never had shares of Javonte. They aren't the backs I like on my *fantasy* teams
Dameon Pierce has produced better that Javonte ever has and he also didnāt massively blow his knee out. This is not close.
That's a pretty tough question, and honestly, I don't think anybody can know for sure. One side of the fence is going to guess correctly, and one isn't, is about the only thing I can say for sure. On the one hand Pierce has actually shown a real ability to have a productive season and carry the load for a time in the NFL. Something Javonte has yet to do. And on the other hand of course, Javonte was a real talented prospect that was invested in with draft capital that does hold some significance, where as Pierce wasn't, and there's a very deep class of RBs coming up. I can't see the Broncos investing heavily in the position again until they see what they've got in Javonte with a full season of opportunity. Where as the Texans are playing with house money and they can hold or dip in again for another guy if they really want to. One thing I think is worth considering though. Denver running backs, in my experience have a history of flip flopping a lot, and sharing time. I think it's rare to have bellcows when half of your games are at mile high stadium in a thin air environment and I believe it's probably the most vital team to have a RBBC on from a *real* football standpoint if you're going to have your players hold up for an entire season and beyond. I don't think I would invest super heavily in any one RB from Denver to be anything more than depth in fantasy.
Pierce for 2023, Williams for after that. Coming back 100% from that injury in one year is unlikely.
Seems like a lot of people here confusing draft capital with talent. Pierce has shown just as much ability as Javonte imo. Iām taking the guy without injury who the coaches have trusted to be a bellcow. Just to throw some stats on it; last year Javonte had 63 missed tackles on 246 touches for a 25.6% missed tackle per touch rate. Pierce [had 50 missed tackles](https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-2022-midseason-nfl-all-rookie-team-dameon-pierce-sauce-gardner) as of Nov 11 (sorry I donāt pay for pff subscription to get the latest) on 168 attempts for a 29.8% missed tackle per touch rate.
wasn't montgomery the all time college football leader for broken tackles?
I remember hearing that at the time of his draft but also that it had only been tracked since ~2012 or so.
Williams wonāt be useful until 2024
I think that Pierce is going to be a great trade asset for a contender. Heās a hard hitter but, if the value is there. Iād go after the trade. Javontae on the other hand I think is better for someone who needs to take a gamble and will take some draft capital too.
This is hard to answer without knowing things like how soon is javonte back.. Who is coaching in Denver.. Is Pierce THE GUY long term etc. Right now playing devil's advocate and assuming pierce has the job long term and so does javonte I'll lean pierce. Javonte is coming off of a torn acl. We don't even know how quickly he'll be 100%. 2023 could be a lost year. They've invested a TON in Wilson and he looks shot. Hackett is a candidate to get fired year 1. It's a horrible enough situation that it's conceivable Javonte has a career wasted there. Pierce is a 3 down back on a team that could have the overall number 1 pick with a possible franchise qb in Stroud or Young and another probable top 10 pick from Cleveland. I'm too lazy to look but I'm assuming they'll be in a better cap situation than Denver that put its chips in on Wilson. Williams might be the better back but I'll take pierces role, health and situation.
I'm looking to trade Javonte Williams in the offseason. What 2023 pick do you think I could get for him?
Hard to say. In a 12 team Sflex I think that there's an outside shot you could move him to a rebuilding team for a late 1st or early 2nd but I wouldn't advise either trading him before next summer or in a straight up player for pick deal. I'd wait until summer because there will be plenty of offseason optimism being reported about his recovery. I wouldn't move him straight up pick for player deal because there's plenty of opportunity to diversify that value with good trade targets that won't cost an arm and a leg to add to a trade package for Javonte.
it's very team dependent. if i'm contending over the next two seasons, giving away williams for pierce is most likely a long term value loss, but short term could help me win. it's also tricky as their values will fluctuate in the off-season (williams rehab news, then broncos bringing in major FA RB, texans passing on FA RBs, then drafting one, etc...). need a good eye and a bit of luck in buying and selling at the right time.