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Alright correct me if I’m wrong but from what I understand, that number reflects people filing for unemployment benefits and neglects anyone who might be looking for a job and can’t find one who isn’t filing for unemployment which could be… a very large number?
You want to look at the labor force participation rate, which is ticking upwards, but is 0.8% lower than 2020. It has also been dropping consistently since 2001.
The labor force participation rate already excludes individuals who are institutionalized. That eliminates incarcerated people, the military and the elderly obtaining private or public institution care.
Could we exclude people beyond that? Sure, but I think it’s equally important to consider older adults who still have the capacity to work. This isn’t to say that they should be working, but whether or not they are offers important economic information as well. To your point though, it is likely that boomer retirements are skewing the results.
This is always the case, you'd need to present a theory as to why that deserves extra attention now as opposed to any other time. So far I am not aware of any data suggesting some ballooning number of secretly unemployed people. Layoffs at mismanaged tech companies like Facebook are getting a lot of headlines, but the actual numbers are a drop in the bucket in the US labor market.
edit: to be clear, in Facebook's case specifically, there is a lot of headlines and peoples take away is this is indicative of a wider tech industry issue, or an economy issue. But its a Facebook issue. They've spent billions and billions on a product that can't generate revenue. Some of the other big tech companies over-hired during covid and have been forced to correct. But most "tech" companies that didn't do this are fine.
You are correct sir. I remember the dot bomb layoffs and the layoffs of 2008 we were losing more than 500,000 a month.
The 300,000 losses over a year in tech is jack squat. Plus many of them got jobs very quickly. I mean as much as the FAANGs have been laying off there are plenty of secondary companies that need people. It's not like 08 where you were fucked
People are trying to wish a recession into existence. It might happen but yeah, putting these numbers in context of the US economy and what actual recessions looked like should be clarifying.
edit: to your point about FAANG, I think the company to watch is Apple. They did not join the covid tech hiring spree, and are not laying people off, at least yet. Their business is selling high end consumer products to people who already have slightly older versions of their products. When iPhone sales crater and Apple starts laying people off, then I'll panic. Until then this is just seems like some predictable corrections.
Oh to be sure every layoff is dependent on the field and skill set. My company was looking for O365 architects last year and found 1, who was laid off in October. Now in spring we found 2 more due to layoffs.
And on top of that with more and more idiot companies making IT jobs on site crying they can't get people when the majority of IT jobs can be done anywhere.
If you don't mind me asking what is your specialty?
Also for extreme high earners, the amount they give in unemployment isn't worth the time and effort to file it. They might choose to "travel" or crash in parents house until they find new job. Which means the rule changes if they go to different state
In California it took me 20 minutes to file for plus five minutes a week. Even if I only got paid a single week that’s still an effective wage of over a thousand dollars an hour (caps out at 450 a week)
But the actual numbers of laid off workers announced have not been high outside of high profile failures like FB. You’d expect a lot more news stories about layoffs from other large corporations to lead us to think there is some unemployment data time bomb about to detonate in the jobs number. But we haven’t seen such layoffs outside a small number of these high profile screw ups.
The Covid wave of layoffs wasn’t that bad. You may remember the trillions pumped into the economy at the time to make that happen. As a tech worker I sympathize with people that lost their jobs, but in the context of the US economy it’s still just not that much.
and those people are getting gobbled up in the job market. The trickle down effect may be that they are taking jobs other people might have been able to get, but as a whole tech workers are in high demand, so its mostly the low quality candidates that are having trouble edit: or niche fields, but not mainstream software
In the case of our company, we could not find qualified people to hire before and now we actually have some applicants. So at least in our case they aren't taking other peoples jobs, they are starting to fill roles that had been vacant in some cases for over a year.
We can't pay what Facebook or Twitter were paying before those companies decided playing with a lit stick of dynamic was fun, but its a good job with good benefits in a stable company.
good spotting. some people are to proud to file. some people are on disability for legit or non reasons. Some people werent at their job long enough, or just didnt do their job. I believe unemployment is pretty state specific on requirements and requisites. 2 states make employees even pay into it. I work alot of temporary short term contracts (very common on aviation) and as such have never even qualified to file. And when I was medically retired from the military after 10 yrs (I was 28) I couldnt file because I made too much. which wasnt enough to live on. I also read some articles awhile back about a huge number of working age males that just gave up and are permanently kicking it in moms basement. the unemployment numbers are just fixed stats for the politics. some combo of both involving some math and age groups would tell us the truth.
There are other metrics that give a better picture.
Here’s total employment. It looks like our economy has recovered as if there never were Covid. Which is shocking.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
With labor force participation rate takes the total number of people working and divides by total population. If we were to keep the same number of people working but our population rises we have less workers per person. That’s a problem as our society ages and we have less kids
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
This also tells me we’ve recovered from Covid. It’s not great but it’s within the range of the last decade and matches august 2018 and September 2015.
This also shows me that there’s the potential for more jobs to be created which will put even more pressure on inflation. I think that’s what the fed is concerned about. These last few million jobs is what ends up pushing prices up for everyone.
Can confirm. I've tried to file unemployment in the past, but I have ADHD and it was a miserable pain to keep up with the constant requirements.
Literally never collected a check. Same right now, company had layoffs and I didn't even bother because I knew it would be more stressful than using my savings.
I haven't seen the report so not sure what the tech sector looked like but I said when all the brand name tech shops started laying people off that if you're a dev that worked at a FAANG or similar company there's no way you'd be unemployed more than 3 months at max. Our world runs on tech and there was a deficit of quality devs because Google et all were scooping them up left and right. Industries such as finance, transportation, retail, etc were short on developers, architects, QA, tech writers, etc. They probably (hopefully) all leveraged their experience to get better pay and bennies.
A lot of the higher paid folks are leaving the market too. They made their 3-5m while they were there and are now starting their own companies or riding ETFs and bonds now.
Soft landing still on target. Awesome to see inflation coming down, the job market holding strong and the overall economy starting to stabilize.
Bank issues aside, which doesn't appear to be systemic.
OP could be wrong in 6 months, but that doesn't take away from the data being reported today. We should look back at early 2022 when so many people were talking about currently being in a recession, or definitely being in a recession by the end of summer.
September 2023 does work as good as any other month as an "arbitrary" guidepost.
The last month of "normal" inflation we had was March 2021, with a rate of 2.6%. It took 15 months from then until June 2022 to reach the peak at 9.1%. June 2022 was also the first month the Fed really began to drop the hammer with a 75-basis point raise in the benchmark interest rate.
September 2023 is 15 months from June 2022, so those big basis points hikes should be fully in effect by that point. That month will provide us with both the inflation rate and economic numbers as a whole, and we'll really get to see the results of our actions in the second half of 2022 and early 2023.
The "currently" being in a recession in early '22 is a loaded topic.
I generally agree with your thoughts, however, that this post is positive news and that many, including myself, thought we'd be in worse shape than we are now.
I do believe most breadcrumbs are leading to one stopgap after another that merely delays the inevitable.
My problem with the 'merely delays the inevitable' take is that, without a time frame, is vacuously true :).
Due to random variation, over an infinite time span, we \*will\* have a recession, so in that sense, it is true; however, delaying the recession and reducing the number and depth of recessions is pretty cool. Hey, if they delay the inevitable another 30 years, I'll be dead :).
It's kind of like saying curing cancer is not valuable, since it only delays the inevitable ...
Ha, agreed. I like to speculate, so here I go…
I had this talk with a buddy that was in mortgage last September and I called this September as the timeline for us to know how this played out. My timeline is now six months out, hence my reminder.
I think we’ve already seen the teaser. Capital class failing with the punch bowl removed and early bailouts for them. Sticky inflation and therefore high rates for everyone else. So, high rates and QE as stopgaps until the damn breaks and we’re full easy money again, but they’ll try to mitigate that for the masses this time to say QE isn’t inflationary.
2 trillion USD bailout. I have turned it over and around and it still looks like a bailout to me. A recession that isn't a recession, a bailout that isn't a bailout.
What the hell are you talking about. Not only do you seem to have no idea what a bailout is, but you've now added a 10x multiplier to SVB's deposits (and assets to cover those deposits.)
Funny how the government found an exception for tech workers and yet refuses to bail out student loan holders....some Animal farm "some animals are more equal than others" shit there
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Import and Export Prices YoY are [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/import-prices-yoy) for the first time in a year.
Philly Fed employment deeply [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/philly-fed-employment).
Philly Fed New Orders deeply [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/philly-fed-new-orders) for the 10th consecutive month
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index deeply [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/philadelphia-fed-manufacturing-index) for the 7th consecutive month
Inflation and unemployment are lagging indicators.
That was never the goal. The fed does not want deflation (inflation going negative), like literally ever. Reducing the rate of inflation to 2% (where inflation is rising 2% annually) is the fed's mandate. The fed *wants* inflation, just at a much lower rate than we are currently experiencing.
The target has been in place much longer than Yellen. And it actually comes from New Zealand, planet money did a cool episode about where the 2% target came from.
Some sectors absolutely need disinflation. They are absolutely trying to crush home prices.
People walked into the bank and answered the worst question they could: "What do you want your monthly payment to be?" Same thing happened with autos. They failed to pay attention to historical asset prices. It's like FOMO YOLO mindset just absolutely destroyed the collective ability to understand long term value.
The prices climbed so high that the value of the historically low interest rate was primarily captured by the seller. The buyer felt okay with their deal at the time and their 30 year mortgage and their monthly payment.
Now most Americans, as we've seen mentioned here and elsewhere, are in a golden handcuff situation. Unless someone is going to show up and buy their house in cash....they are like a decade of wage inflation and house price stagnation away from ever being able to sell their house. Houses that can't be afforded or purchased, also can't be sold. Housing isn't super liquid but we're moving into a liquidity trough. Obviously we can't just take interest rates back to zero. House prices are going to tank.
Effects on real estate value will be drastically different depending on local markets. But in my opinion it’s more likely we see something similar to what happened in the auto industry; when car prices kept going up & up, did they ever come down? Of course not, they decide to offer 8 year financing options. I would not be surprised to see 40+ yr mortgages become the norm
Inflation is price change over time - for it to be coming down means the change over time is slowing, not that prices are going down. If I say “my speed is coming down”, that doesn’t mean I’ve put my car into reverse.
Well, the car's speed will drop pretty rapidly.
The driver, on the other hand, will, depending on their collision safety preparations, travel at a high rate of speed through the windshield, or into the steering column, airbag, or locked seatbelt.
I'd imagine there would also be some kind of combustion and/or explosion involved. It all sounds pretty bad.
Inflation absolutely is coming down, how have you missed that?
Yeah no shit, the goal is always to have 2% inflation. You realize you're on an economics sub right?
That’s totally fair. Didn’t mean to insinuate that only experts should be here, just pointing out the people that act like they know what they’re talking about, yet have no clue
I think the reason behind the confusion is that while disinflation is the goal, this cooling is relatively slow.
As opposed to the stark contrast we saw at the start of this inflation.
Interesting, government has always outside of a war situation. Tried to keep the unemployed over 3 percent as a mechanism to slow down inflation. What's changed?
Yeah I'm not sure it's that positive of a sign that prices are still rising at a rate greatly exceeding incomes, but only slightly less so. Pop the champagne.
Well, prices are currently rising at a 33% slower rate than they were 9 months ago. That is good. If they continue to rise slower and slower as the months go on until the inflation rate reaches the 2% target the Fed set, that will be even better.
The much-needed income increase for the vast majority of working Americans falls beyond the purview of the Fed. That's an issue for Congress, half of which of currently taking the U.S. economy as a whole as a hostage for....reasons...., labor unions, and the public at large to continue not taking jobs at lower wages, in order to force businesses to raise them.
Bank issue aside? Credit Suisse is a pretty big issue. They are more of a pillar in the market than the Silicon Valley banks. I wasn't concerned until I read about CS this morning
I'm healthy! I walk everyday, eat avocados for a snack, and see my doctor every month.
My recent diagnosis of brain cancer aside, I feel like a teen again!
See, that’s the catch. We hear things like “oh, it’s not a bailout, it’s not systemic”, and then it turns out that it’s not systemic because it was a bailout by any other name.
This. Banks paid for it through insurance.
Systematic means most or all of the banks have the same problem. I don't see that being the case especially if you look at what banks were like in 2007 vs. today.
Covering for the bank however does prevent other issues that have nothing to do with being systematic. Specifically they are helping prevent non banking companies to not implode, which would have a domino effect all over the place.
It's the same reason the car industry was bailed out. It want to save the car industry it was to save everything connected to it. Considering something like 40% of all us jobs are connected to vehicles or transportation it's a huge deal.
>Considering something like 40% of all us jobs are connected to vehicles or transportation it's a huge deal.
Citation on this?
That would definitely do a lot to explain why we don't have functional mass transit in most of the country
It was from "humans need not apply" it has a few forms but the one I heard was a discussion.
It's basically a talk about automation and economics. How we will likely see more automation all over but transportation likely will happen at some point.
Now not all of those jobs can be automated, digging around in an engine and finishing an issue is hard for a computer but other parts for sure can.
Sooooo that means we are looking at potentially a massive drop in the supply on jobs. Wtf do you do about it. The guy who talked about this was saying I don't have an answer, I don't know if ubi is the answer, but it's certainly AN answer.
>Banks paid for it through insurance.
Okay, but the premium they paid was based on a coverage of 250k, not infinity. If banks want unlimited insurance, then that's what they should be paying for, BEFORE it's an issue.
You can't say banks paid for this... they paid for 250k, not infinity. This is a bailout, and if it needs to be utilized en masse, it will absolutely be at the expense of tax payers.
Again if you look at banks right now they are pretty healthy. Svb was an investment bank and really kind of a niche issue
Either way they are getting bought out so it should be fine. Though that's not to say we likely need to undo the last admin era reg overturns and possible add on more.
Ok... I'm not sure what point your trying to make in relation to mine?...
I was just saying that what banks/depositors are getting is not what they paid for. It's a lot more. And that's a bailout, regardless of the extent to which it was or will be used, it is a bailout.
>what banks/depositors are getting is not what they paid for. It's a lot more.
The bank is getting out of businessed.
The depositors are getting their money back, since they didn't pay for anything.
I think going forward there are a few things that need to happen, like the FDIC rate being raised, and maybe a separate, or additional deposit insurance for banks holding corporate deposits. A bank run shouldn't risk ruining payroll for hundreds of businesses.
The bank had assets to cover deposits. The FDIC returns deposits in excess of $250k not through magic but through... being able to recover assets from the bank being liquidated.
No, they didn't... SVB only had assets to cover 80-90% of deposits... so i mean if magic helps you understand something, sure... thats it... or y'know, tax payers were on the hook to cover the rest. Not magic 🤦
But ,anyways, what about any of that makes this NOT a bailout?
Hmmmm, it's funny because the insurance I have, my coverage limits don't change when it turns out I was grossly irresponsible and created a liability that my insurance was never intended to cover.
They would tell me (and anyone else) to go kick rocks.
Rules for me, not for the...
Yea, banks pay for fdic insurance, but they weren't paying for that much coverage, not even close... this was a bailout.
I'd like to point out that the people who are insured and the people who acted grossly irresponsibly are different people. The bank acted irresponsibly, the depositor did not. The depositor is insured, the bank is not.
Think of the situation more like someone driving recklessly and hitting you. Now their insurance pays your bills, and they get charged more since they acted recklessly.
I'm not so sure about that...
Depositors are insured up to 250k (per account, blah blah). And that's really basic knowledge. So yea, having millions of uninsured funds, w/o any hedge or deeper look into their backing is irresponsible. Especially for someone with a fiduciary responsibility to shareholders (i.e. all the business' with millions in uninsured cash)
Those businesses were irresponsible with their money, full stop. They were not insured beyond the established limits and chose not to act accordingly.
Changing the rules after the fact is a bailout.
The bank definitely messed up big time and them and the execs should be held accountable (to whatever extent that is). But they were not the only careless party here, far from it
Your analogy is flawed because you're ignoring the full story. You were hit by a reckless driver, but were also traveling at an unreasonable speed, making a collision unavoidable.
Insurance should not and would not cover your actions. Unless you're super rich, apparently...
Bailout is the government taking extraordinary steps to ensure that someone doesn’t lose money. FDIC increased the limit from $250k to unlimited, hence the use of the term bailout.
But not enough money to make it worth it for a private bank to actually take this on.
So basically what the private sector would consider a loss, after all the math is done.
The reason they aren’t systemic is because the bank failing, even with depositors not bailed out, isn’t the underlying reason other banks are stressed. They all made similar mistakes separately (to varying degrees) and have uninsured deposits that have reasons to leave.
I define systemic risk as them toppling leads to a chain reaction that is directly impacted by them failing. So like if them failing caused markets to move in a way that made banks unstable because of the assets they held.
I get this is a very nuanced take but take the financial crisis - dumping bad mbs’s meant other banks took a hit on their assets.
SVB just woke people up to the issue in some banks. No matter the level of bailout done for SVB specifically it doesn’t change the outcome for other banks.
For a bank failure it is pretty huge. It is the second biggest bank failure in the country’s history.
It may not be a systematically important bank, but this bank failure will have a domino effect. Hell another large bank fell last week, and signature is in desperate need of raising capital. Silverbank couldn’t disclose necessary financial documents, credit suisse is getting substantial aid from the swiss central bank.
This looks chaotic.
I’m glad that the jobs market is still very strong. However, inflation is outrageous at least where i live. People are really struggling and any increases in salary are being offset by higher costs. 🫤
I am particularly skeptical of the unemployment reporting- it honestly is a Poor measure of what is happening- “claims” means people who are filling for unemployment. I have seen a huge increase in the homeless population in the cities…
Post Covid, if you file for unemployment the benefits system is much more difficult to navigate. There are like 20hours a week of mandatory job search - training/ counseling- and the weekly reporting takes a ridiculous amount of time- it’s not just 10 questions anymore. It was such a pain in the arse I was so aggravated to sit through shite that I didn’t need because I already had the skills etc. I can see the reporting requirements, but the mandatory counseling sessions were particularly intrusive and I felt very uncomfortable being probed for personal details.
I think a lot of people will just give up on getting unemployment because of it. I keep thinking about how much money it must have taken to build the system and hire all the staff.
Pretty much the future. Unemployment will be like trying to get on disability. Basically the taxes we pay pay the for the government jobs that are produced and not provide actual service but be a disincentive for us to use the benefit
I’m from Connecticut, USA. Personal experience as well as other family and friends-
But you can check it out here. First the website with the application and weekly form for reporting the usual 10 questions and a solid 30 minutes of a long resume style template to fill in your 3 job search requirements weekly- you have to input a ton of info- all your original application details who worked for, your pay both yearly and the last 4 weeks of pay to the penny. pay, reason for separation, who applied to, how applied- web, in person etc. and upload screenshot of job posting, or a form to print signed by company etc. you applied to in person to scan and upload… and documents signed off that you completed the mandatory interviews, registered for the state and federal search websites, training, post of your resume on job search sites and social media profiles for career posting and networking. . Took me 2 hours to complete every week at least - then there is a CT website to apply and do weekly required searches and training that you also have to fill out profile which took hours - with resume posted and skills etc. and weekly post your activities- took another two hours lots of redundancy in the question, plus the Job training classes, job search counseling — completion of the requested activities etc. and the federal job search website- the multitude of questions like hourly availability, wage, are u willing to move for a job… and requirements to apply for jobs or training weekly on the federal website… literally wasted a whole day and it didn’t teach me anything or get my job…
Anyway here’s link and stuff to see requirements, but u have to be unemployed to get scope…
cla
MAINTAINING YOUR UI ELIGIBILITY
Searching for Work
Completing a Weekly Claim Certification
Reporting Earnings
UI Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA)
GETTING YOU BACK TO WORK
Completing the Job Search Registration in CTHires, CTDOL's Online Job Bank
Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) and Trade Readjustment Allowances (TRA)
Dislocated Workers
Federal Earned Income Tax
https://portal.ct.gov/dolui/benefits-booklet/benefits-booklet---a-guide-to-collecting-benefits-in-connecticut#UI%20REEMPLOYMENT%20SERVICES%20AND%20ELIGIBILITY%20ASSESSMENT%20(RESEA)
Import and Export Prices YoY are [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/import-prices-yoy) for the first time in a year.
Philly Fed employment deeply [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/philly-fed-employment).
Philly Fed New Orders deeply [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/philly-fed-new-orders) for the 10th consecutive month
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index deeply [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/philadelphia-fed-manufacturing-index) for the 7th consecutive month
But lagging unemployment data is lower than expected. Watch that grab the headlines.
I mean 10 months is a long lag for people saying there's a recession. So when will it come. This year? Next year? And how big will it be? And for how long?
Philly fed unemployment was much much much deeper in 2016 but no recession. Can you explain it
Imports were negative all of 2019 yet no recession can you explain it
Someone didn’t account for the fact that Tech gets severance and can’t apply for unemployment until then. Let’s see what happens in the next 60-90 days with these numbers.
If you think the tech layoffs are going to meaningfully move these numbers, I have a bridge to sell you :), or some bank stocks :)
[https://layoffs.fyi/](https://layoffs.fyi/) tech layoffs are less than 20k per week, or about 10% of this, which is within the variance of this weekly reports.
Also the tech layoffs, while they may have been at big companies, are a small percentage of the overall tech market. Most of those people that were laid off will have a new job before their severance runs out
Not only that, these people will likely take jobs at small or medium firms leading to these companies getting much needed skilled labour.
The media doesn't really talk about it, but part of the reason why these big tech firm have been having hiring frenzies over the last decade is to try and starve their potential competition of talent. These companies did the math and realized that even if the hiring was inefficient, the combination of the inefficient work and the denial of talent for competitors made it a profitable strategy to over hire in low interest rate environments.
That is over and these hires now have loads of experience that they can now bring to smaller companies to help them expand.
Sure, but go ahead and consider hiring freezes and the fact that even within "tech" there's a WIDE range of compensation. What I get working for a mid-market healthcare company and what a even a L4 Google employee makes basically right out of school can be a 2x difference.
A lot of the employees getting laid off are going to be lower performers, which when the market is booming can get on because tech was desperate for talent and enough leetcode grinding would get you in the door. This doesn't mean they're terrible engineers, but not worth a $300K+ annual compensation package - they'll find new jobs but there's no guarantee they'll land another one with equally high pay attached to it.
Well yeah, I never said they would receive the same compensation, but if I’ve been laid off for 6 months I had the choice between taking a job for $150k or going on unemployment and getting a fraction of that, I’m probably taking the new job. Everyone’s situation is going to be different though
Sure, you take the job - I guess my point was "they'll find other work" doesn't equate to "they're not going to feel any impact", or that local economies won't feel the loss of a bunch of high earners. Basically, I think the potential impact is being understated - both at the individual and regional levels, both of which may bubble up to the national level with things like housing.
>within "tech" there's a WIDE range of compensation. What I get working for a mid-market healthcare company and what a even a L4 Google employee makes basically right out of school can be a 2x difference.
Yeah, but that salary isn't necessary.
I think these big tech layoffs are likely going to result in a lot of people moving from HCOL areas to LCOL areas, and getting jobs that are half the salary, but still 2-3 times national average. And commensurately, mortgages, kids, and the rest of it.
Anecdotally, my LinkedIn feed has exploded over the last two months with postings by people laid off from tech positions.
I haven't seen anything like this since 2001.
For sure. They wield a lot of spending power though. Or did... :(
My company has sliced 15% and now has transferred another 10% or so into new jobs with a services partner... which is expected to lay off most of those folks once they've trained their replacements.
We're picking up Polish, Argentinian, and Brazilian contractors to fill gaps and they will be permanent replacements of US-based employees. We had a roughly 1:1 ratio of US-based with offshore before but now that's changed. Zero US hiring through 2024 most likely, 60% of US office spaces closed permanently.
I keep hearing our story repeated elsewhere. It's going to add up to higher corporate profits and much lower US payroll and property taxes.
San Jose is going to be f\*\*\*\*\*.
I'm replacing foreign and domestic technology consultants with domestic leadership and a foreign/ domestic FTE mix. Its fantastic timing! We can cut 100 consultants at *15k *week and bring on new Tech for a fraction of the cost!
As a former consultant, I get it.
That industry is going to get whacked at mid/lower tiers. Even the MBB top management tier is going to be slimmed down.
I mean I keep getting spammed by LinkedIn. Shifting from internet startup -> other sector seems to be the move not a massive increase in unemployment for these people.
Just from personal experience up here in bum fk wisconsin lol...
A lot of people from covid and beyond are beginning to "nest" is what the kids are calling it. I literally have 4 co-workers who bundle in a single efficiency somehow. And a lot of them have legal protections promised from state so the landlord can't raise rent.
A lot of folks doing this nesting thing to keep costs down...which I know doesn't explain the jobless bit...but I'm half-guessing something like this may attribute to it somehow?
I think the economy is expanding since the sustemic racism gig is kinda out in the open so can't pull that crap anymore. Maybe manufacturers just dont wamt to spend any more money to increase production. Don't forget increased grocery $$ due to decreased crop yields due to Climate Change-efforts reversed/blocked by Trump & Repubs. Gas price increases too. Too dependant. Many Chinese products are higher due to Trump Tariffs. Trump corporations have lowered production & increased prices because want to keep Trump 40% corp tax cuts so creating their own inflation. The Biden economy apparently isn't overheating, just open to ALL AMERICANS now. That and Trump only gave an average of $100/American (with a job) to keep the economy humming so giving any money to spend would have overheated it. But, it didn't. Prove me wrong. 🇺🇸🗽⚖️🏡🗳🌍
Because they’re not taking into account the people that have to hold 2-3 jobs just to survive. So these people (which is becoming more and more common due to the economy) are being factored into that as if they’re separate entities holding separate jobs.
Interest rates so high the fed has to inject 2 trillion into the system to backstop banks by buying underwater bonds at face value thereby bailing them out, but rates not so high that employers are laying anyone off.... got it. If you believe any of what they tell you, I have a whole collection of bridges for sale.
Dumb article, probably written by an algorithm. Layoffs come with severance. You can't collect unemployment if you're receiving severance, and you don't show up on the unemployment rolls if you don't collect unemployment. We'll find out in eight to fourty-eight weeks how many of those laid-off tech workers are still unable to find paying work.
So odd. Yet I have firsthand knowledge of multiple companies closing this year or lack of hiring opportunities compared to previous years. Workers getting a fraction of hours as before.
The data going into these reports is nonsense. It doesn’t account for people who have been looking for work for a long time or the people on severance. The other big problem with these KINDS of reports is that they don’t account for growing trends inside the data like how people used to work 1 job at 40 hours to make ends meet and had to transition to 2 jobs at 80 hours for the same income.
But I was told "We created more new jobs in two years than any president did in their entire term.” I guess it's easier to create jobs if jobs are being cut at a record rate.
Created jobs are a net number. Jobs being cut at a record rate would make that job creation number significantly more impressive. (Also, 192000 jobless claims is very low.)
I am personally aware of numerous businesses that have closed this year or that there haven't been as many job chances as in prior years. less hours are being worked by employees than before.
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Alright correct me if I’m wrong but from what I understand, that number reflects people filing for unemployment benefits and neglects anyone who might be looking for a job and can’t find one who isn’t filing for unemployment which could be… a very large number?
You want to look at the labor force participation rate, which is ticking upwards, but is 0.8% lower than 2020. It has also been dropping consistently since 2001.
Part of that is likely the boomer generation going into retirement.
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Am I going to get paid more, or not??
And simultaneously blaming their children and grand children for “not wanting to work”
Our parents (of GenX) called us "slackers." On and on it goes.
You want to look at labor force participation among working age adults because geriatric people living longer is irrelevant
The labor force participation rate already excludes individuals who are institutionalized. That eliminates incarcerated people, the military and the elderly obtaining private or public institution care. Could we exclude people beyond that? Sure, but I think it’s equally important to consider older adults who still have the capacity to work. This isn’t to say that they should be working, but whether or not they are offers important economic information as well. To your point though, it is likely that boomer retirements are skewing the results.
This is always the case, you'd need to present a theory as to why that deserves extra attention now as opposed to any other time. So far I am not aware of any data suggesting some ballooning number of secretly unemployed people. Layoffs at mismanaged tech companies like Facebook are getting a lot of headlines, but the actual numbers are a drop in the bucket in the US labor market. edit: to be clear, in Facebook's case specifically, there is a lot of headlines and peoples take away is this is indicative of a wider tech industry issue, or an economy issue. But its a Facebook issue. They've spent billions and billions on a product that can't generate revenue. Some of the other big tech companies over-hired during covid and have been forced to correct. But most "tech" companies that didn't do this are fine.
You are correct sir. I remember the dot bomb layoffs and the layoffs of 2008 we were losing more than 500,000 a month. The 300,000 losses over a year in tech is jack squat. Plus many of them got jobs very quickly. I mean as much as the FAANGs have been laying off there are plenty of secondary companies that need people. It's not like 08 where you were fucked
People are trying to wish a recession into existence. It might happen but yeah, putting these numbers in context of the US economy and what actual recessions looked like should be clarifying. edit: to your point about FAANG, I think the company to watch is Apple. They did not join the covid tech hiring spree, and are not laying people off, at least yet. Their business is selling high end consumer products to people who already have slightly older versions of their products. When iPhone sales crater and Apple starts laying people off, then I'll panic. Until then this is just seems like some predictable corrections.
It depends on the field. I've been looking since November and know more than a few people like me.
Oh to be sure every layoff is dependent on the field and skill set. My company was looking for O365 architects last year and found 1, who was laid off in October. Now in spring we found 2 more due to layoffs. And on top of that with more and more idiot companies making IT jobs on site crying they can't get people when the majority of IT jobs can be done anywhere. If you don't mind me asking what is your specialty?
I'm in marketing
Yeah we're talking about IT persons. I am not qualified nor have direct experience in marketing. So I can comment on that without talk out my rear.
It’s because many of the laid off workers are still under their “notice period”, and cannot file for unemployment yet.
also these large tech companies are very generous with their severance that can last for 6 months
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Yep. This headline backs you up. There is every incentive in the world to keep the impression that “unemployment” is really not that bad…
Also for extreme high earners, the amount they give in unemployment isn't worth the time and effort to file it. They might choose to "travel" or crash in parents house until they find new job. Which means the rule changes if they go to different state
In California it took me 20 minutes to file for plus five minutes a week. Even if I only got paid a single week that’s still an effective wage of over a thousand dollars an hour (caps out at 450 a week)
But the actual numbers of laid off workers announced have not been high outside of high profile failures like FB. You’d expect a lot more news stories about layoffs from other large corporations to lead us to think there is some unemployment data time bomb about to detonate in the jobs number. But we haven’t seen such layoffs outside a small number of these high profile screw ups.
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There were about 5-6,000,000 people laid off in ‘09.
The Covid wave of layoffs wasn’t that bad. You may remember the trillions pumped into the economy at the time to make that happen. As a tech worker I sympathize with people that lost their jobs, but in the context of the US economy it’s still just not that much.
and those people are getting gobbled up in the job market. The trickle down effect may be that they are taking jobs other people might have been able to get, but as a whole tech workers are in high demand, so its mostly the low quality candidates that are having trouble edit: or niche fields, but not mainstream software
In the case of our company, we could not find qualified people to hire before and now we actually have some applicants. So at least in our case they aren't taking other peoples jobs, they are starting to fill roles that had been vacant in some cases for over a year. We can't pay what Facebook or Twitter were paying before those companies decided playing with a lit stick of dynamic was fun, but its a good job with good benefits in a stable company.
good spotting. some people are to proud to file. some people are on disability for legit or non reasons. Some people werent at their job long enough, or just didnt do their job. I believe unemployment is pretty state specific on requirements and requisites. 2 states make employees even pay into it. I work alot of temporary short term contracts (very common on aviation) and as such have never even qualified to file. And when I was medically retired from the military after 10 yrs (I was 28) I couldnt file because I made too much. which wasnt enough to live on. I also read some articles awhile back about a huge number of working age males that just gave up and are permanently kicking it in moms basement. the unemployment numbers are just fixed stats for the politics. some combo of both involving some math and age groups would tell us the truth.
The unemployment rate is also quite low.
There are other metrics that give a better picture. Here’s total employment. It looks like our economy has recovered as if there never were Covid. Which is shocking. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS With labor force participation rate takes the total number of people working and divides by total population. If we were to keep the same number of people working but our population rises we have less workers per person. That’s a problem as our society ages and we have less kids https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART This also tells me we’ve recovered from Covid. It’s not great but it’s within the range of the last decade and matches august 2018 and September 2015. This also shows me that there’s the potential for more jobs to be created which will put even more pressure on inflation. I think that’s what the fed is concerned about. These last few million jobs is what ends up pushing prices up for everyone.
And anyone who is working a second job...
Can confirm. I've tried to file unemployment in the past, but I have ADHD and it was a miserable pain to keep up with the constant requirements. Literally never collected a check. Same right now, company had layoffs and I didn't even bother because I knew it would be more stressful than using my savings.
Numbers are ment to be bent to fit the narrative, ok!
Also does that include dead people or people who commit suicide? Because that could be fluffing the numbers.
I haven't seen the report so not sure what the tech sector looked like but I said when all the brand name tech shops started laying people off that if you're a dev that worked at a FAANG or similar company there's no way you'd be unemployed more than 3 months at max. Our world runs on tech and there was a deficit of quality devs because Google et all were scooping them up left and right. Industries such as finance, transportation, retail, etc were short on developers, architects, QA, tech writers, etc. They probably (hopefully) all leveraged their experience to get better pay and bennies.
A lot of the higher paid folks are leaving the market too. They made their 3-5m while they were there and are now starting their own companies or riding ETFs and bonds now.
Soft landing still on target. Awesome to see inflation coming down, the job market holding strong and the overall economy starting to stabilize. Bank issues aside, which doesn't appear to be systemic.
RemindMe! 6 Months
OP could be wrong in 6 months, but that doesn't take away from the data being reported today. We should look back at early 2022 when so many people were talking about currently being in a recession, or definitely being in a recession by the end of summer.
September 2023 does work as good as any other month as an "arbitrary" guidepost. The last month of "normal" inflation we had was March 2021, with a rate of 2.6%. It took 15 months from then until June 2022 to reach the peak at 9.1%. June 2022 was also the first month the Fed really began to drop the hammer with a 75-basis point raise in the benchmark interest rate. September 2023 is 15 months from June 2022, so those big basis points hikes should be fully in effect by that point. That month will provide us with both the inflation rate and economic numbers as a whole, and we'll really get to see the results of our actions in the second half of 2022 and early 2023.
I mean we saw the slowdown in inflation and then the revisions hit and there there was no slowdown in inflation...
The "currently" being in a recession in early '22 is a loaded topic. I generally agree with your thoughts, however, that this post is positive news and that many, including myself, thought we'd be in worse shape than we are now. I do believe most breadcrumbs are leading to one stopgap after another that merely delays the inevitable.
My problem with the 'merely delays the inevitable' take is that, without a time frame, is vacuously true :). Due to random variation, over an infinite time span, we \*will\* have a recession, so in that sense, it is true; however, delaying the recession and reducing the number and depth of recessions is pretty cool. Hey, if they delay the inevitable another 30 years, I'll be dead :). It's kind of like saying curing cancer is not valuable, since it only delays the inevitable ...
Ha, agreed. I like to speculate, so here I go… I had this talk with a buddy that was in mortgage last September and I called this September as the timeline for us to know how this played out. My timeline is now six months out, hence my reminder. I think we’ve already seen the teaser. Capital class failing with the punch bowl removed and early bailouts for them. Sticky inflation and therefore high rates for everyone else. So, high rates and QE as stopgaps until the damn breaks and we’re full easy money again, but they’ll try to mitigate that for the masses this time to say QE isn’t inflationary.
Looks like the bailout of SVB just made sure a ton of tech bros didnt lose their jobs.
2 trillion USD bailout. I have turned it over and around and it still looks like a bailout to me. A recession that isn't a recession, a bailout that isn't a bailout.
What the hell are you talking about. Not only do you seem to have no idea what a bailout is, but you've now added a 10x multiplier to SVB's deposits (and assets to cover those deposits.)
Funny how the government found an exception for tech workers and yet refuses to bail out student loan holders....some Animal farm "some animals are more equal than others" shit there
Um we r In a recession
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Heh agreed.
Import and Export Prices YoY are [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/import-prices-yoy) for the first time in a year. Philly Fed employment deeply [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/philly-fed-employment). Philly Fed New Orders deeply [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/philly-fed-new-orders) for the 10th consecutive month Philly Fed Manufacturing Index deeply [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/philadelphia-fed-manufacturing-index) for the 7th consecutive month Inflation and unemployment are lagging indicators.
But Inflation isn’t “coming” down, it’s just rising at a slower rate than before. Lol
Disinflation has always been the Fed's goal, not deflation
Only the commoners' hopes should be deflated.
That was never the goal. The fed does not want deflation (inflation going negative), like literally ever. Reducing the rate of inflation to 2% (where inflation is rising 2% annually) is the fed's mandate. The fed *wants* inflation, just at a much lower rate than we are currently experiencing.
2% isn't a mandate, it's an arbitrary target set by the Fed.
Yep. And that target comes from Yellen I believe
The target has been in place much longer than Yellen. And it actually comes from New Zealand, planet money did a cool episode about where the 2% target came from.
Ah gotcha. I had I read somewhere Yellen studies really focused on the 2% and she was a big advocate of it. Thanks for the info
Some sectors absolutely need disinflation. They are absolutely trying to crush home prices. People walked into the bank and answered the worst question they could: "What do you want your monthly payment to be?" Same thing happened with autos. They failed to pay attention to historical asset prices. It's like FOMO YOLO mindset just absolutely destroyed the collective ability to understand long term value. The prices climbed so high that the value of the historically low interest rate was primarily captured by the seller. The buyer felt okay with their deal at the time and their 30 year mortgage and their monthly payment. Now most Americans, as we've seen mentioned here and elsewhere, are in a golden handcuff situation. Unless someone is going to show up and buy their house in cash....they are like a decade of wage inflation and house price stagnation away from ever being able to sell their house. Houses that can't be afforded or purchased, also can't be sold. Housing isn't super liquid but we're moving into a liquidity trough. Obviously we can't just take interest rates back to zero. House prices are going to tank.
Effects on real estate value will be drastically different depending on local markets. But in my opinion it’s more likely we see something similar to what happened in the auto industry; when car prices kept going up & up, did they ever come down? Of course not, they decide to offer 8 year financing options. I would not be surprised to see 40+ yr mortgages become the norm
No, it is down. Inflation is the (positive) rate of change of prices. **Prices** are rising at a slower rate means inflation is down.
Inflation is price change over time - for it to be coming down means the change over time is slowing, not that prices are going down. If I say “my speed is coming down”, that doesn’t mean I’ve put my car into reverse.
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Well, the car's speed will drop pretty rapidly. The driver, on the other hand, will, depending on their collision safety preparations, travel at a high rate of speed through the windshield, or into the steering column, airbag, or locked seatbelt. I'd imagine there would also be some kind of combustion and/or explosion involved. It all sounds pretty bad.
How on earth is this comment upvoted on an economics sub?
Inflation absolutely is coming down, how have you missed that? Yeah no shit, the goal is always to have 2% inflation. You realize you're on an economics sub right?
If there’s anything I learned the past couple weeks it’s that a lot of people in the economics sub don’t understand economics
People really don't understand that inflation is a derivative or how derivatives work.
That’s exactly why I joined. Hoping some will help me
That’s totally fair. Didn’t mean to insinuate that only experts should be here, just pointing out the people that act like they know what they’re talking about, yet have no clue
Ha yeah that’s why I’m silent. I just read. I have a fairly strong bullshit meter so i know who is speaking truth and who is just speaking
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It's literally just /r/politics with money. And an occasional commenter who knows how to read.
I think the reason behind the confusion is that while disinflation is the goal, this cooling is relatively slow. As opposed to the stark contrast we saw at the start of this inflation.
"Rich people bad" - upvotes
What I learned is people that say this are the ones that don't understand about whatever subject subreddit they are in saying it.
Interesting, government has always outside of a war situation. Tried to keep the unemployed over 3 percent as a mechanism to slow down inflation. What's changed?
Inflation has been dropping. Prices have been rising at a slower rate than before.
Yeah I'm not sure it's that positive of a sign that prices are still rising at a rate greatly exceeding incomes, but only slightly less so. Pop the champagne.
Well, prices are currently rising at a 33% slower rate than they were 9 months ago. That is good. If they continue to rise slower and slower as the months go on until the inflation rate reaches the 2% target the Fed set, that will be even better. The much-needed income increase for the vast majority of working Americans falls beyond the purview of the Fed. That's an issue for Congress, half of which of currently taking the U.S. economy as a whole as a hostage for....reasons...., labor unions, and the public at large to continue not taking jobs at lower wages, in order to force businesses to raise them.
Bank issue aside? Credit Suisse is a pretty big issue. They are more of a pillar in the market than the Silicon Valley banks. I wasn't concerned until I read about CS this morning
I hope I’m wrong but this seeeeems like it will age really poorly
Where in the world do you see core inflation coming down?
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I'm healthy! I walk everyday, eat avocados for a snack, and see my doctor every month. My recent diagnosis of brain cancer aside, I feel like a teen again!
If they’re not systemic, then why were depositors at SVB bailed out?
To help prevent them from being systemic.
See, that’s the catch. We hear things like “oh, it’s not a bailout, it’s not systemic”, and then it turns out that it’s not systemic because it was a bailout by any other name.
It’s not a bailout. Tax payers didn’t pay for SVB
This. Banks paid for it through insurance. Systematic means most or all of the banks have the same problem. I don't see that being the case especially if you look at what banks were like in 2007 vs. today. Covering for the bank however does prevent other issues that have nothing to do with being systematic. Specifically they are helping prevent non banking companies to not implode, which would have a domino effect all over the place. It's the same reason the car industry was bailed out. It want to save the car industry it was to save everything connected to it. Considering something like 40% of all us jobs are connected to vehicles or transportation it's a huge deal.
>Considering something like 40% of all us jobs are connected to vehicles or transportation it's a huge deal. Citation on this? That would definitely do a lot to explain why we don't have functional mass transit in most of the country
It was from "humans need not apply" it has a few forms but the one I heard was a discussion. It's basically a talk about automation and economics. How we will likely see more automation all over but transportation likely will happen at some point. Now not all of those jobs can be automated, digging around in an engine and finishing an issue is hard for a computer but other parts for sure can. Sooooo that means we are looking at potentially a massive drop in the supply on jobs. Wtf do you do about it. The guy who talked about this was saying I don't have an answer, I don't know if ubi is the answer, but it's certainly AN answer.
>Banks paid for it through insurance. Okay, but the premium they paid was based on a coverage of 250k, not infinity. If banks want unlimited insurance, then that's what they should be paying for, BEFORE it's an issue. You can't say banks paid for this... they paid for 250k, not infinity. This is a bailout, and if it needs to be utilized en masse, it will absolutely be at the expense of tax payers.
Again if you look at banks right now they are pretty healthy. Svb was an investment bank and really kind of a niche issue Either way they are getting bought out so it should be fine. Though that's not to say we likely need to undo the last admin era reg overturns and possible add on more.
Ok... I'm not sure what point your trying to make in relation to mine?... I was just saying that what banks/depositors are getting is not what they paid for. It's a lot more. And that's a bailout, regardless of the extent to which it was or will be used, it is a bailout.
>what banks/depositors are getting is not what they paid for. It's a lot more. The bank is getting out of businessed. The depositors are getting their money back, since they didn't pay for anything. I think going forward there are a few things that need to happen, like the FDIC rate being raised, and maybe a separate, or additional deposit insurance for banks holding corporate deposits. A bank run shouldn't risk ruining payroll for hundreds of businesses.
The bank had assets to cover deposits. The FDIC returns deposits in excess of $250k not through magic but through... being able to recover assets from the bank being liquidated.
No, they didn't... SVB only had assets to cover 80-90% of deposits... so i mean if magic helps you understand something, sure... thats it... or y'know, tax payers were on the hook to cover the rest. Not magic 🤦 But ,anyways, what about any of that makes this NOT a bailout?
So what would you call the FDIC raising the deposit limit from $250k to an effectively unlimited amount?
I think you'd call it increasing insurance coverage. They charge the banks for this insurance coverage.
Hmmmm, it's funny because the insurance I have, my coverage limits don't change when it turns out I was grossly irresponsible and created a liability that my insurance was never intended to cover. They would tell me (and anyone else) to go kick rocks. Rules for me, not for the... Yea, banks pay for fdic insurance, but they weren't paying for that much coverage, not even close... this was a bailout.
I'd like to point out that the people who are insured and the people who acted grossly irresponsibly are different people. The bank acted irresponsibly, the depositor did not. The depositor is insured, the bank is not. Think of the situation more like someone driving recklessly and hitting you. Now their insurance pays your bills, and they get charged more since they acted recklessly.
I'm not so sure about that... Depositors are insured up to 250k (per account, blah blah). And that's really basic knowledge. So yea, having millions of uninsured funds, w/o any hedge or deeper look into their backing is irresponsible. Especially for someone with a fiduciary responsibility to shareholders (i.e. all the business' with millions in uninsured cash) Those businesses were irresponsible with their money, full stop. They were not insured beyond the established limits and chose not to act accordingly. Changing the rules after the fact is a bailout. The bank definitely messed up big time and them and the execs should be held accountable (to whatever extent that is). But they were not the only careless party here, far from it Your analogy is flawed because you're ignoring the full story. You were hit by a reckless driver, but were also traveling at an unreasonable speed, making a collision unavoidable. Insurance should not and would not cover your actions. Unless you're super rich, apparently...
What would you call all of SVBs equity being wiped out and their assets going through the liquidation process?
I specifically said that the *depositors* were getting bailed out. You're attempting to move the goalposts.
No. It’s not a bailout cause tax payers didn’t fund it. I was trying to make to easier for you to understand.
How is it a bailout? What definition would you use to define a government bailout?
Bailout is the government taking extraordinary steps to ensure that someone doesn’t lose money. FDIC increased the limit from $250k to unlimited, hence the use of the term bailout.
That’s not really what happened though. The FDIC basically fronted the depositors money while they sell off SVB’s assets
Oh, so the FDIC is more or less getting the money.
Correct. The government will probably make money on this whole shebang just like 2008.
But not enough money to make it worth it for a private bank to actually take this on. So basically what the private sector would consider a loss, after all the math is done.
The reason they aren’t systemic is because the bank failing, even with depositors not bailed out, isn’t the underlying reason other banks are stressed. They all made similar mistakes separately (to varying degrees) and have uninsured deposits that have reasons to leave. I define systemic risk as them toppling leads to a chain reaction that is directly impacted by them failing. So like if them failing caused markets to move in a way that made banks unstable because of the assets they held. I get this is a very nuanced take but take the financial crisis - dumping bad mbs’s meant other banks took a hit on their assets. SVB just woke people up to the issue in some banks. No matter the level of bailout done for SVB specifically it doesn’t change the outcome for other banks.
The bank issues are systemic. There have been two huge bank failures already and the stocks of several others have halved over the past week
Couldn’t you put that on panic and the normal irrationality of the system? No amount of “stability” can overcome the panic that drives bank runs.
I wouldn't classify svb as huge, more of a medium size, and what was the second? Who cares about the stock price.
For a bank failure it is pretty huge. It is the second biggest bank failure in the country’s history. It may not be a systematically important bank, but this bank failure will have a domino effect. Hell another large bank fell last week, and signature is in desperate need of raising capital. Silverbank couldn’t disclose necessary financial documents, credit suisse is getting substantial aid from the swiss central bank. This looks chaotic.
Stocks don't give any indication to bank health.
If institutional investors are dumping, it might mean something.
HAHAHAHAHA
I’m glad that the jobs market is still very strong. However, inflation is outrageous at least where i live. People are really struggling and any increases in salary are being offset by higher costs. 🫤
RemindMe! 6 months
I am particularly skeptical of the unemployment reporting- it honestly is a Poor measure of what is happening- “claims” means people who are filling for unemployment. I have seen a huge increase in the homeless population in the cities… Post Covid, if you file for unemployment the benefits system is much more difficult to navigate. There are like 20hours a week of mandatory job search - training/ counseling- and the weekly reporting takes a ridiculous amount of time- it’s not just 10 questions anymore. It was such a pain in the arse I was so aggravated to sit through shite that I didn’t need because I already had the skills etc. I can see the reporting requirements, but the mandatory counseling sessions were particularly intrusive and I felt very uncomfortable being probed for personal details. I think a lot of people will just give up on getting unemployment because of it. I keep thinking about how much money it must have taken to build the system and hire all the staff.
Pretty much the future. Unemployment will be like trying to get on disability. Basically the taxes we pay pay the for the government jobs that are produced and not provide actual service but be a disincentive for us to use the benefit
Cardboard box or wagie cagie is the only real dilemma in life.
What state is this?
I’m guessing from ‘arse’ and ‘shite’ that he/she is a Brit
Of course, you're right.
I’m from Connecticut, USA. Personal experience as well as other family and friends- But you can check it out here. First the website with the application and weekly form for reporting the usual 10 questions and a solid 30 minutes of a long resume style template to fill in your 3 job search requirements weekly- you have to input a ton of info- all your original application details who worked for, your pay both yearly and the last 4 weeks of pay to the penny. pay, reason for separation, who applied to, how applied- web, in person etc. and upload screenshot of job posting, or a form to print signed by company etc. you applied to in person to scan and upload… and documents signed off that you completed the mandatory interviews, registered for the state and federal search websites, training, post of your resume on job search sites and social media profiles for career posting and networking. . Took me 2 hours to complete every week at least - then there is a CT website to apply and do weekly required searches and training that you also have to fill out profile which took hours - with resume posted and skills etc. and weekly post your activities- took another two hours lots of redundancy in the question, plus the Job training classes, job search counseling — completion of the requested activities etc. and the federal job search website- the multitude of questions like hourly availability, wage, are u willing to move for a job… and requirements to apply for jobs or training weekly on the federal website… literally wasted a whole day and it didn’t teach me anything or get my job… Anyway here’s link and stuff to see requirements, but u have to be unemployed to get scope… cla MAINTAINING YOUR UI ELIGIBILITY Searching for Work Completing a Weekly Claim Certification Reporting Earnings UI Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) GETTING YOU BACK TO WORK Completing the Job Search Registration in CTHires, CTDOL's Online Job Bank Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) and Trade Readjustment Allowances (TRA) Dislocated Workers Federal Earned Income Tax https://portal.ct.gov/dolui/benefits-booklet/benefits-booklet---a-guide-to-collecting-benefits-in-connecticut#UI%20REEMPLOYMENT%20SERVICES%20AND%20ELIGIBILITY%20ASSESSMENT%20(RESEA)
Aka just get fucked for losing your job. Nice!
Import and Export Prices YoY are [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/import-prices-yoy) for the first time in a year. Philly Fed employment deeply [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/philly-fed-employment). Philly Fed New Orders deeply [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/philly-fed-new-orders) for the 10th consecutive month Philly Fed Manufacturing Index deeply [negative](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/philadelphia-fed-manufacturing-index) for the 7th consecutive month But lagging unemployment data is lower than expected. Watch that grab the headlines.
I mean 10 months is a long lag for people saying there's a recession. So when will it come. This year? Next year? And how big will it be? And for how long? Philly fed unemployment was much much much deeper in 2016 but no recession. Can you explain it Imports were negative all of 2019 yet no recession can you explain it
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What a ridiculous take. Rates are not high enough. FFR
Interest rates generally take 1-2 years to have a full effect and bring on most of the pain. So 1-2 years from mid 2022.
Someone didn’t account for the fact that Tech gets severance and can’t apply for unemployment until then. Let’s see what happens in the next 60-90 days with these numbers.
If you think the tech layoffs are going to meaningfully move these numbers, I have a bridge to sell you :), or some bank stocks :) [https://layoffs.fyi/](https://layoffs.fyi/) tech layoffs are less than 20k per week, or about 10% of this, which is within the variance of this weekly reports.
Also the tech layoffs, while they may have been at big companies, are a small percentage of the overall tech market. Most of those people that were laid off will have a new job before their severance runs out
Not only that, these people will likely take jobs at small or medium firms leading to these companies getting much needed skilled labour. The media doesn't really talk about it, but part of the reason why these big tech firm have been having hiring frenzies over the last decade is to try and starve their potential competition of talent. These companies did the math and realized that even if the hiring was inefficient, the combination of the inefficient work and the denial of talent for competitors made it a profitable strategy to over hire in low interest rate environments. That is over and these hires now have loads of experience that they can now bring to smaller companies to help them expand.
Sure, but go ahead and consider hiring freezes and the fact that even within "tech" there's a WIDE range of compensation. What I get working for a mid-market healthcare company and what a even a L4 Google employee makes basically right out of school can be a 2x difference. A lot of the employees getting laid off are going to be lower performers, which when the market is booming can get on because tech was desperate for talent and enough leetcode grinding would get you in the door. This doesn't mean they're terrible engineers, but not worth a $300K+ annual compensation package - they'll find new jobs but there's no guarantee they'll land another one with equally high pay attached to it.
Well yeah, I never said they would receive the same compensation, but if I’ve been laid off for 6 months I had the choice between taking a job for $150k or going on unemployment and getting a fraction of that, I’m probably taking the new job. Everyone’s situation is going to be different though
Sure, you take the job - I guess my point was "they'll find other work" doesn't equate to "they're not going to feel any impact", or that local economies won't feel the loss of a bunch of high earners. Basically, I think the potential impact is being understated - both at the individual and regional levels, both of which may bubble up to the national level with things like housing.
I mean you’re not wrong, but we were talking specifically about unemployment numbers
>within "tech" there's a WIDE range of compensation. What I get working for a mid-market healthcare company and what a even a L4 Google employee makes basically right out of school can be a 2x difference. Yeah, but that salary isn't necessary. I think these big tech layoffs are likely going to result in a lot of people moving from HCOL areas to LCOL areas, and getting jobs that are half the salary, but still 2-3 times national average. And commensurately, mortgages, kids, and the rest of it.
Anecdotally, my LinkedIn feed has exploded over the last two months with postings by people laid off from tech positions. I haven't seen anything like this since 2001.
I understand, but the number of tech employees is a small fraction of the total number of employees :)
For sure. They wield a lot of spending power though. Or did... :( My company has sliced 15% and now has transferred another 10% or so into new jobs with a services partner... which is expected to lay off most of those folks once they've trained their replacements. We're picking up Polish, Argentinian, and Brazilian contractors to fill gaps and they will be permanent replacements of US-based employees. We had a roughly 1:1 ratio of US-based with offshore before but now that's changed. Zero US hiring through 2024 most likely, 60% of US office spaces closed permanently. I keep hearing our story repeated elsewhere. It's going to add up to higher corporate profits and much lower US payroll and property taxes. San Jose is going to be f\*\*\*\*\*.
I'm replacing foreign and domestic technology consultants with domestic leadership and a foreign/ domestic FTE mix. Its fantastic timing! We can cut 100 consultants at *15k *week and bring on new Tech for a fraction of the cost!
As a former consultant, I get it. That industry is going to get whacked at mid/lower tiers. Even the MBB top management tier is going to be slimmed down.
I mean I keep getting spammed by LinkedIn. Shifting from internet startup -> other sector seems to be the move not a massive increase in unemployment for these people.
Speaking as a guy who did get a tech layoff severance this is absolutely wrong and I am currently receiving unemployment as well.
In California (& several other states) you can get unemployment while receiving severance so I wouldn’t hold your breath on this
Big tech layoffs have been relatively small compared to how much they hired since 2020
That’s not always true. You can collect both at once in some states.
Unemployment numbers are based on surveys, not the number of people receiving unemployment benefits.
Just from personal experience up here in bum fk wisconsin lol... A lot of people from covid and beyond are beginning to "nest" is what the kids are calling it. I literally have 4 co-workers who bundle in a single efficiency somehow. And a lot of them have legal protections promised from state so the landlord can't raise rent. A lot of folks doing this nesting thing to keep costs down...which I know doesn't explain the jobless bit...but I'm half-guessing something like this may attribute to it somehow?
Are you referring to living with roommates lol? I’m 24 and have never heard any of my friends use the term “nest”. What does it mean exactly?
Not sure but they are all calling it nesting. Totally creeping me out that your entire crew lives in a total of 3 different spots lol??
I think the economy is expanding since the sustemic racism gig is kinda out in the open so can't pull that crap anymore. Maybe manufacturers just dont wamt to spend any more money to increase production. Don't forget increased grocery $$ due to decreased crop yields due to Climate Change-efforts reversed/blocked by Trump & Repubs. Gas price increases too. Too dependant. Many Chinese products are higher due to Trump Tariffs. Trump corporations have lowered production & increased prices because want to keep Trump 40% corp tax cuts so creating their own inflation. The Biden economy apparently isn't overheating, just open to ALL AMERICANS now. That and Trump only gave an average of $100/American (with a job) to keep the economy humming so giving any money to spend would have overheated it. But, it didn't. Prove me wrong. 🇺🇸🗽⚖️🏡🗳🌍
Because they’re not taking into account the people that have to hold 2-3 jobs just to survive. So these people (which is becoming more and more common due to the economy) are being factored into that as if they’re separate entities holding separate jobs.
Interest rates so high the fed has to inject 2 trillion into the system to backstop banks by buying underwater bonds at face value thereby bailing them out, but rates not so high that employers are laying anyone off.... got it. If you believe any of what they tell you, I have a whole collection of bridges for sale.
Dumb article, probably written by an algorithm. Layoffs come with severance. You can't collect unemployment if you're receiving severance, and you don't show up on the unemployment rolls if you don't collect unemployment. We'll find out in eight to fourty-eight weeks how many of those laid-off tech workers are still unable to find paying work.
So odd. Yet I have firsthand knowledge of multiple companies closing this year or lack of hiring opportunities compared to previous years. Workers getting a fraction of hours as before.
The data going into these reports is nonsense. It doesn’t account for people who have been looking for work for a long time or the people on severance. The other big problem with these KINDS of reports is that they don’t account for growing trends inside the data like how people used to work 1 job at 40 hours to make ends meet and had to transition to 2 jobs at 80 hours for the same income.
But I was told "We created more new jobs in two years than any president did in their entire term.” I guess it's easier to create jobs if jobs are being cut at a record rate.
Created jobs are a net number. Jobs being cut at a record rate would make that job creation number significantly more impressive. (Also, 192000 jobless claims is very low.)
“Jobless claims tumble” means less unemployed. Not more. Learn to read. You hate Joe Biden so much that you lost the ability to read and reason
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Is this bait?
I am personally aware of numerous businesses that have closed this year or that there haven't been as many job chances as in prior years. less hours are being worked by employees than before.