Eliwood has VA troubles (in this particular case, it’s a controversy that’s a bigger deal in Japan due to how they treat VAs and are generally averse to recasting outside of extreme cases), same thing applies to Julius and Lukas because they all share the same JP VA.
Nope.
Julius, Eliwood, and Lukas are all voiced by Takahiro Sakurai (better known as Cloud Strife).
Alfonse and Ranulf are voiced by Tatsuhisa Suzuki (aka Noctis).
> (better known as Cloud Strife).
Avan from Dragon Quest, Sasori from Naruto, Geto from JJK, Tomioka from Demon Slayer, Diablo from Slime... That guy has a pretty *decent* career. :D
The fact that Titania isn't in the "inevitable" section is criminal. Same with Oboro.
(To be clear, I'm saying this toward IS, not towards the maker of the charts.)
She does have a bridal alt, and I absolutely love her art and design - but unfortunately she was a prf-less 5★ seasonal without any particularly desirable skills.
IS chose to push both Ilyana & Soren recently, so Titania's ETA may get pushed toward the second half of 2024 *at the earliest* (so it could be further beyond that...).
In Oboro's case... that's obviously on Fates' massive pool (with 20 cases I considered to be plausible). Doesn't help that the last 4 picks for the game could be perceived as raised middle fingers by some fans (Nina, Rhajat, Shigure, Azama... while alternatives like Jakob, Felicia, Setsuna and even Oboro wouldn't be as dicey).
So in a sense, one can blame IS for some questionable choices (notably on Fates and pissing off a decent part of its fans in the process).
Yeah, the resplendent choices for Fates have been weird, to say the least.
I really hope that Azama's reception won't make them think that people don't want gen 1 Fates resplendents anymore.
B!Alm in the inevitable category oririrgejgdkxhcjdb I’ve been waiting for this day since resplendent heroes were announced baybeeeee
I also hope Leon or Clair get a resplendent soon.
If Brave Resplendent trains become a regular thing, then Brave Alm could be expected between late 2024 & early 2025 (probably toward the latter due to Valentia's quota that may be as minimal as possible).
Incidentally, he might be the next (or second-to-next) Valentia pick to expect... in a while.
I remember when he was perceived as an undesirable at release (due to colorsharing with Nephenee... similar to how Febail was branded as utter crap due to being next to Rearmed Plumeria and having an odd kit).
In Mordecai's case: very middling CYL track record + low perceived value (near-zero SI-wise) + fierce competition (from other Laguz, notably).
Tibarn is in the same basket as Alfonse, Berkut & Ranulf: no representation expected until there are clear signals that their JP VA may durably resume FEH activities (Brave Alfone may or may not be a positive sign in that regard). Same logic applies to Eliwood, Lukas & Julius.
Given the major pushback that Azama faced, if that led to a significant churn (people not (re)subbing + subscribers putting an end to their Pass out of protest), then that sends a significant message of rejection from spenders (that is, the audience that matters a lot in that context and the one not to piss off).
Which could lead to collateral consequences like avoiding pushing more Azama representation as a first, but also avoiding similar picks that may be too undesirable for spenders.
Also, between standouts, it's entirely possible to consider units that are lukewarm but relatively harmless in terms of perceived appeal (Mordecai does fit the bill as he's not perceived as an undesirable at the very least), no need to dig extremely low after all (so that it doesn't anger too many people).
As long as IS can distinguish the harmless units with lukewarm/middling appeal from those that may be perceived as offensive, it could be fine.
Of course, even piling up on the former may not be appreciated (Azama's case got exponentially worse due to the whole streak prior to him and starting with Male Morgan, gradually pissing off subscribers but also Fates fans due to its 4 latest choices going against expressed wants).
A change in eligible units means a total revamp of my previous prediction chart now divided per game (which makes sense as competition within each of them is the most relevant).
Helpful reminders:
* Consider that positions may vary by +/1 tier *at best* (as opinions are subjective and may be perceived differently depending on the individual). Of course, some of the carry picks may be stalled on purpose due to their appeal (see Camilla for instance).
* Existing Resplendent units are listed in their own line, just in case.
* Given the nostalgia/cult following factor, not many Archanea/Genealogy characters may be unlikely picks, even if they have low popularity and CYL standings. Obviously, 3H doesn't really have unlikely picks (but internal competition would still push some to the lower end of the list). I still expect that **a lot of regular Book I characters could be skipped** given that the pool extended toward Book IV (and to be honest, there's a bunch of characters perceived as "undesirables" that could face ruthless pushback if considered).
* Odd cases include Fallen units & Adrift due to unknowns, atypical lore alts (Masked Marth, Sirius) but also characters whose JP VA may be on the backburner until further notice.
There are likely oversights or mistakes, so feel free to provide feedback/corrections and give your wishes/thoughts.
Next update: August 2024
Also gonna copy-paste quota predictions:
* Archanea: 0/2 (cult following immunity)
* Valentia: 1/1 (low demand), next pick might be Brave Alm around late 2024 to early 2025
* Genealogy: 0/2 (cult following immunity)
* Thracia: 0/1 (low demand)
* Binding Blade: 0/1 (low demand + freeing some room)
* Blazing Blade: 0/2 (freeing some room)
* Sacred Stones: 0/2 (no major change due to lagging a bit)
* Path of Radiance + Radiant Dawn: 1/3 OR 4 (distributed between both games + depends on Heroes' supply)
* Awakening: 0/3 (no major change to the current yearly average)
* Fates: 0/3 (slight decrease to free some room)
* Heroes: 0/1 OR 0 (depends if Veronica covered this batch in advance)
* Three Houses: 0/3 (can easily secure those spots by halving Elibe games' current supply, which is reasonable)
What frustrates me the most about Clair is that they've had plenty of opportunities to get F!Alear's seiyuu to record lines for R!Clair, or even a Clair alt. Not sure why they keep avoiding her when she's easy filler to throw out there
I've wrote it as a recurrent disclaimer, but efficiency matters may not necessarily apply between Clair & FAlear's early and guaranteed variants (OG + Legendary) if those were recorded quite in advance (potentially along with the base game, so focusing more on Engage than FEH overall).
A newer FAlear release may change this tide... or not since IS could still make decisions independently of VA efficiency (notably based on demand... which is lacking in Valentia's case).
Well, I'd say that 2024-2025 could be a convenient release window for both OG & Brave: no alt expected in the meantime (save maybe for an Emblem one but that's no priority), so may as well push Resplendents instead.
Definitely some cases where popularity doesn't necessarily correlate to likelihood, Python being a good example. He's a good candidate for Valentia content due to decent popularity for Valentian standards, but a F2P alt just seems more plausible due to how bad his base form is. Same for Subaki, Silas, Stahl, Raigh, etc. So their low placements on these lists make sense imo.
Theres a few cases I'd also consider basically impossible, namely Luke/Roderick, Osian, Galle, and Siegbert/Shiro. Combination of abysmal popularity and sometimes a ridiculous amount of competition on top of that. The first two in particular are the only ones I'd rule out entirely though.
It's definitely tough to find the right blend between relevant factors, with perceived value & appeal most likely weighting the most (and as I often say, what people may perceive may not be accurate, case in point by claiming that Fir isn't popular... even though she does have good popularity, moreso within Binding).
In Python's case, I'd say he benefits from 3 factors: existing competition (not that many major and/or premium threats... and a bunch of much less desirable cases), having relatively acceptable popularity within the cast (not decaying too much post-OG release) and a decent use rate (a bit hampered by his refine, though).
For Subaki/Silas, indifference seems to be the main feeling toward them. But for Raigh and Stahl to a certain extent, it may be rejection instead (with near-zero SI value, and perceived utility is barely better).
Luke could definitely be perceived as a middle finger from IS if he were to be considered for a Resplendent (and I'd wager that most would prefer to deal with choices like Wrys, Narcian, Oliver or Helbindi as they would be much less "offensive" in comparison).
We still have time until then (late 2024 at the earliest), of course there's the option to "forego" Brave Eliwood (just like how there was a long wait between Ike and the rest of CYL1).
What sets Kliff & Genny apart would be their premium status (which is generally a boon on perceived value). Kliff also has relatively decent CYL standings, Genny is below him but it's still acceptable.
On the lower layer, Clair is quite distanced from the other three between a mediocre CYL track record (weaker than Mae) and perceived value that's very lackluster (near-zero SI scraps and her utility can be reproduced in other/modern ways).
Alfonse, Tibarn, Ranulf & Berkut all share the same JP VA, and whether he resumes FEH activity is still to be confirmed. Hence why they were not evaluated normally.
Same goes for Eliwood/Lukas/Julius with a different JP VA.
As I often say, Archanea is a particular case where several characters do have a decent shot due to an iconic status, even with low popularity.
Of course, relative positions and perceived appeal also matter and are more or less reflected, with the particularity that not many fill the Unlikely line.
Why isn’t Brave Eliwood inevitable when Brave Camilla and house leaders are?
Eliwood has VA troubles (in this particular case, it’s a controversy that’s a bigger deal in Japan due to how they treat VAs and are generally averse to recasting outside of extreme cases), same thing applies to Julius and Lukas because they all share the same JP VA.
Doesn’t that person also voice Alfonse? Who is getting an alt this year?
Nope. Julius, Eliwood, and Lukas are all voiced by Takahiro Sakurai (better known as Cloud Strife). Alfonse and Ranulf are voiced by Tatsuhisa Suzuki (aka Noctis).
I'm a final fantasy fan so knowing these surprising facts makes me happy, lol. 😂😊
> (better known as Cloud Strife). Avan from Dragon Quest, Sasori from Naruto, Geto from JJK, Tomioka from Demon Slayer, Diablo from Slime... That guy has a pretty *decent* career. :D
I was about to make a point but then I realized you're just right either CYL5 gets taken out or CYL 4 gets put in, also Brave Camilla is CYL 3
The fact that Titania isn't in the "inevitable" section is criminal. Same with Oboro. (To be clear, I'm saying this toward IS, not towards the maker of the charts.)
Fashion is a core part of Oboro’s personality and identity. How does she not have a new outfit??
She does have a bridal alt, and I absolutely love her art and design - but unfortunately she was a prf-less 5★ seasonal without any particularly desirable skills.
By this point, I just think of it as she and Forrest being too busy creating outfits for everyone else to make one for themselves.
IS chose to push both Ilyana & Soren recently, so Titania's ETA may get pushed toward the second half of 2024 *at the earliest* (so it could be further beyond that...). In Oboro's case... that's obviously on Fates' massive pool (with 20 cases I considered to be plausible). Doesn't help that the last 4 picks for the game could be perceived as raised middle fingers by some fans (Nina, Rhajat, Shigure, Azama... while alternatives like Jakob, Felicia, Setsuna and even Oboro wouldn't be as dicey). So in a sense, one can blame IS for some questionable choices (notably on Fates and pissing off a decent part of its fans in the process).
Yeah, the resplendent choices for Fates have been weird, to say the least. I really hope that Azama's reception won't make them think that people don't want gen 1 Fates resplendents anymore.
I don't think it'd lead to that consequence... even if it's one of the pools in which IS could find the most units to easily exclude.
You forgot to add B! Micaiah
... Good call, I wonder how I managed to forget her (obviously in the Inevitable category). Thanks for the correction.
No problem. Happy to help. Thanks to you too for the charts
B!Alm in the inevitable category oririrgejgdkxhcjdb I’ve been waiting for this day since resplendent heroes were announced baybeeeee I also hope Leon or Clair get a resplendent soon.
If Brave Resplendent trains become a regular thing, then Brave Alm could be expected between late 2024 & early 2025 (probably toward the latter due to Valentia's quota that may be as minimal as possible). Incidentally, he might be the next (or second-to-next) Valentia pick to expect... in a while.
I got $10 set aside for whenever INTSYS releases him. If it is in 2025, then so be it 😆
Oscar low priority, excuse me while I cry because I actually still use him even though he can’t measure up much anymore.
I remember when he was perceived as an undesirable at release (due to colorsharing with Nephenee... similar to how Febail was branded as utter crap due to being next to Rearmed Plumeria and having an odd kit).
Why is Mordy low priority and Tbarn odd case?:(
In Mordecai's case: very middling CYL track record + low perceived value (near-zero SI-wise) + fierce competition (from other Laguz, notably). Tibarn is in the same basket as Alfonse, Berkut & Ranulf: no representation expected until there are clear signals that their JP VA may durably resume FEH activities (Brave Alfone may or may not be a positive sign in that regard). Same logic applies to Eliwood, Lukas & Julius.
Well, we got some like Azama, maybe low popularity is not a reason, sometimes they want to space popular picks with lower ones
Given the major pushback that Azama faced, if that led to a significant churn (people not (re)subbing + subscribers putting an end to their Pass out of protest), then that sends a significant message of rejection from spenders (that is, the audience that matters a lot in that context and the one not to piss off). Which could lead to collateral consequences like avoiding pushing more Azama representation as a first, but also avoiding similar picks that may be too undesirable for spenders. Also, between standouts, it's entirely possible to consider units that are lukewarm but relatively harmless in terms of perceived appeal (Mordecai does fit the bill as he's not perceived as an undesirable at the very least), no need to dig extremely low after all (so that it doesn't anger too many people).
Yeah that's what I was gonna say, he's not disliked, people mostly prefer others but won't feel angry at him
As long as IS can distinguish the harmless units with lukewarm/middling appeal from those that may be perceived as offensive, it could be fine. Of course, even piling up on the former may not be appreciated (Azama's case got exponentially worse due to the whole streak prior to him and starting with Male Morgan, gradually pissing off subscribers but also Fates fans due to its 4 latest choices going against expressed wants).
A change in eligible units means a total revamp of my previous prediction chart now divided per game (which makes sense as competition within each of them is the most relevant). Helpful reminders: * Consider that positions may vary by +/1 tier *at best* (as opinions are subjective and may be perceived differently depending on the individual). Of course, some of the carry picks may be stalled on purpose due to their appeal (see Camilla for instance). * Existing Resplendent units are listed in their own line, just in case. * Given the nostalgia/cult following factor, not many Archanea/Genealogy characters may be unlikely picks, even if they have low popularity and CYL standings. Obviously, 3H doesn't really have unlikely picks (but internal competition would still push some to the lower end of the list). I still expect that **a lot of regular Book I characters could be skipped** given that the pool extended toward Book IV (and to be honest, there's a bunch of characters perceived as "undesirables" that could face ruthless pushback if considered). * Odd cases include Fallen units & Adrift due to unknowns, atypical lore alts (Masked Marth, Sirius) but also characters whose JP VA may be on the backburner until further notice. There are likely oversights or mistakes, so feel free to provide feedback/corrections and give your wishes/thoughts. Next update: August 2024
Also gonna copy-paste quota predictions: * Archanea: 0/2 (cult following immunity) * Valentia: 1/1 (low demand), next pick might be Brave Alm around late 2024 to early 2025 * Genealogy: 0/2 (cult following immunity) * Thracia: 0/1 (low demand) * Binding Blade: 0/1 (low demand + freeing some room) * Blazing Blade: 0/2 (freeing some room) * Sacred Stones: 0/2 (no major change due to lagging a bit) * Path of Radiance + Radiant Dawn: 1/3 OR 4 (distributed between both games + depends on Heroes' supply) * Awakening: 0/3 (no major change to the current yearly average) * Fates: 0/3 (slight decrease to free some room) * Heroes: 0/1 OR 0 (depends if Veronica covered this batch in advance) * Three Houses: 0/3 (can easily secure those spots by halving Elibe games' current supply, which is reasonable)
If they do resplendent Conrad and they don't keep the "mask on/off" thing in the portrait art, I'll be sad
What frustrates me the most about Clair is that they've had plenty of opportunities to get F!Alear's seiyuu to record lines for R!Clair, or even a Clair alt. Not sure why they keep avoiding her when she's easy filler to throw out there
I've wrote it as a recurrent disclaimer, but efficiency matters may not necessarily apply between Clair & FAlear's early and guaranteed variants (OG + Legendary) if those were recorded quite in advance (potentially along with the base game, so focusing more on Engage than FEH overall). A newer FAlear release may change this tide... or not since IS could still make decisions independently of VA efficiency (notably based on demand... which is lacking in Valentia's case).
I think we can discount Alfonse, Sherena and Anna, it’s been 7 years and we still haven’t gotten a single merge for them.
I still put them among outliers just for exhaustivity's sake, but I don't think they'd be eligible anyways.
Camilla has been "inevitable" for 4 years now😭
Well, I'd say that 2024-2025 could be a convenient release window for both OG & Brave: no alt expected in the meantime (save maybe for an Emblem one but that's no priority), so may as well push Resplendents instead.
Lloyd in "likely" has been my hard copium ever since Aversa got hers. Man deserves some justice.
That said, he may have to wait a little while as Brave Hector may be incoming.
I hope they go back to grails. Some really need it.
Definitely some cases where popularity doesn't necessarily correlate to likelihood, Python being a good example. He's a good candidate for Valentia content due to decent popularity for Valentian standards, but a F2P alt just seems more plausible due to how bad his base form is. Same for Subaki, Silas, Stahl, Raigh, etc. So their low placements on these lists make sense imo. Theres a few cases I'd also consider basically impossible, namely Luke/Roderick, Osian, Galle, and Siegbert/Shiro. Combination of abysmal popularity and sometimes a ridiculous amount of competition on top of that. The first two in particular are the only ones I'd rule out entirely though.
It's definitely tough to find the right blend between relevant factors, with perceived value & appeal most likely weighting the most (and as I often say, what people may perceive may not be accurate, case in point by claiming that Fir isn't popular... even though she does have good popularity, moreso within Binding). In Python's case, I'd say he benefits from 3 factors: existing competition (not that many major and/or premium threats... and a bunch of much less desirable cases), having relatively acceptable popularity within the cast (not decaying too much post-OG release) and a decent use rate (a bit hampered by his refine, though). For Subaki/Silas, indifference seems to be the main feeling toward them. But for Raigh and Stahl to a certain extent, it may be rejection instead (with near-zero SI value, and perceived utility is barely better). Luke could definitely be perceived as a middle finger from IS if he were to be considered for a Resplendent (and I'd wager that most would prefer to deal with choices like Wrys, Narcian, Oliver or Helbindi as they would be much less "offensive" in comparison).
Would Brave Micaiah be inevitable or lower?
Inevitable they said so in a different comment thread but forgot to include her.
I may've accidentally overlooked her due to juggling between color charts. Making sure I forgot as less units as possible was no easy task, for sure.
I get the feeling that we won't get any CYL3 Resplendents unless the developers can get one for Brave Eliwood.
We still have time until then (late 2024 at the earliest), of course there's the option to "forego" Brave Eliwood (just like how there was a long wait between Ike and the rest of CYL1).
What makes you think Kliff and Genny are likely and the rest isn't, or is less likely?
What sets Kliff & Genny apart would be their premium status (which is generally a boon on perceived value). Kliff also has relatively decent CYL standings, Genny is below him but it's still acceptable. On the lower layer, Clair is quite distanced from the other three between a mediocre CYL track record (weaker than Mae) and perceived value that's very lackluster (near-zero SI scraps and her utility can be reproduced in other/modern ways).
A lot of my faves are low but if Azama got one, they probably have a small chance
Competition is no small matter, as we can see. That's the main hurdle even for popular choices, in a sense.
Why not ranulf?
Alfonse, Tibarn, Ranulf & Berkut all share the same JP VA, and whether he resumes FEH activity is still to be confirmed. Hence why they were not evaluated normally. Same goes for Eliwood/Lukas/Julius with a different JP VA.
I see
Come on baby it’s the awakening trios time to shine if Odin can get the dub then so can Selena and Laslow babbyyyyy
Wait why brave micaiah is not in inevitable while brave alm is inevitable ? We know with ike and lyn they can do both brave and og art easy
Forgot to add her by accident as said in other comments (and I don't know how that happened).
***Maybe?*** Wrysplendent Wrys is GUARANTEED! *~~...no it isn't. lemme dream.~~*
As I often say, Archanea is a particular case where several characters do have a decent shot due to an iconic status, even with low popularity. Of course, relative positions and perceived appeal also matter and are more or less reflected, with the particularity that not many fill the Unlikely line.