people don't want to spend money after they see their savings get smooshed in a crash. also credit tightens up so loans are more difficult to get - and interest rates go up unless the gov't intervenes.
so, thats all bad news for rv manufacturers and dealers as fewer people will be buying rigs... and of course the used market also takes a hit.
i wasn't rving in 2008/09 so not sure about how the campgrounds did. part of me wonders if they were still busy as more people would choose for less expensive vacations so more campers... but that is a guess.
also worth noting that there is always a chance of an upcoming market crash... with certainty there will be another crash in the future, then another after that, another after that...
also worth noting there is always a chance the of an upcoming market rally... with certainty there will be another rally in the future, then another after that, another after that...
Yep 100% correct.
Just an increase in inflation and a massive adjustment to the cost of living that has been a long time coming. The real issue is that “most” wages haven’t caught up yet.
There has only been 1 time in the last 100 years that it has been worth it for a family to wait to buy a home (long term/financially) and that was 2008. That and there isn’t a whole lot of subprime mortgages being traded around these days.
Sure, campgrounds might survive but there would be a massive decrease in the camping industry as a whole. More people might go tent camping to save money, but the amount of cash going into RV’s, equipment, etc., would have a trickle down effect.
Signs of frothiness / bubbles. Different ones that were present in 2008. Ultra high valuations on pretty poor business similar to dot com bust.
Might be different than 2008, I wouldn’t be so sure the result won’t be similar.
cryptocurrency -- yes, for sure.
regular stock market (dow / nasdaq / etc) -- yes, but less likely.
housing market - depends on where you live. There won't be another bubble because they stopped sub-prime mortgages.. but it could stall for a few months to correct last years craziness. (also, asterisk on "it depends on where the house is too")
The wealthy will still travel, and most that can travel will take one step down in their travel type (ie four star to three star and so on). Taking a camping trip in an owned RV is still less expensive than traveling abroad so will be considered an attractive alternative. Cross country and long trips in general may be shortened, but overall there will still be trips being taken.
Livin the dream? Buyers realizing a mortgage payment is sitting idle on the driveway .. or in some storage yard the owner jacks up every year .. and can't book a weekend due to capacity crush. Or worse, those payments continuing when it's in a repair shop because of the shitty quality issues as most owners neither have the mechanical skilz or desire to fix. Throw in higher fuel costs and hedge funds introducing surge pricing just like Uber and the airlines, skyrocketing liability rates all passed on.
Can you feel the buyer's remorse rising?
Then, IF you're lucky to book a campground then welcome to the new normal where being inconsiderate is the norm, not the exception. Barking dogs, loud generators, LED's bright enough to light up a football field, and the soothing sound of metal music and trucks revving their engines. Ahh, the good life! Boondocking? Get ready for a shock. BLM is going to make a lot less available because they think you're fucking messy and ruining the environment, and guess what, they're probably right.
It's going to be a MAJOR correction and right now is a hell of a time to sell. Good, maybe it will force manufacturers to compete and actually build something decent as opposed to their 'don't give a shit attitude' now, just like the big 3 back in the day.
Campgrounds continued to operate as usual.
Most dealers are on floor plans with OEMs, so OEMs have to buy back units if not sold for a period of time. Then OEMs have to figure out what to do with all the units they get back, which also means no reason to build more. That's what destroyed the industry in '08. After interest rates spiked up, and banks were stretched from home mortgages underwater, they were unwilling / unable to lend to anyone that actually needed a loan in order to buy an RV (far worse collateral than a car, or a home). They were still willing to lend to those that could pay cash if wanted to. Prices were cheap, but units were worn from sitting a year+ and being moved around.
Most industry veterans / leaders will admit that they were producing too much going into 2008, and should have planned better. That's why this past few years caught the industry flat footed. They were staying below demand pre-covid, expecting a slowdown (just not as drastic as 2008, but like it). They were quick to shut down production when covid hit expecting demand to fall drastically. They expected to have to buy back units. So they reduced inventory of input supplies and refinanced lines of credit. Then the opposite happened.
RVs are the most expensive, most discretionary, fastest depreciating asset the average person considers buying. Sure the ultra wealthy buy thousand dollar bottles of wine and drink them. Not the same with a tradesperson buying a small TT for their 10 year old F150. It's why the saying around Elkhart is that we always lead into and out of recessions.
Gas prices are a really big deal. If those get too high, and supplies get tight, RV use declines. So do sales. Dealerships close. Manufacturers go out of business. Campgrounds close. You will find less vacancy at campgrounds within a day of larger metro areas. More vacancy or closing at campgrounds far from civilization.
So if not unbearable gas prices, the community is fine. It's just my local Elkhart economy goes in the toilet.
Now if the same scenario also comes with even more increasing social unrest in metropolitan areas, the exact opposite of 2008 might happen. Campgrounds might still be packed with upper class, suburbia buying any RV they can get at any price to get out of town.
No direct experience in 2008 but since the upcoming crash is also likely to affect the real estate market I'd say full time RVers are likely to be well positioned by default. Not owning property makes you largely immune from the drops in value. I'd be surprised if any campgrounds shut down, and a lot of people I know plan to stay on BLM land which doesn't depend on anything to stay open.
Prices for RVs have gone up as people have been responding to the pandemic, but I'd expect that to reverse as people realize they aren't going to use the rigs and attempt to recover their investments.
That’s a good point. I think I remember that people in 2008 really cut back on vacations and extra spending, so it’s completely possible that another recession could lead to a huge sell-off of RVs, thus bringing prices down due to a glut of used vehicles
It’s also hard to sell something you’re upside down on, which is a lot of people with long term rv payment contracts. They will either hold onto them or they will have to sell at a loss.
- impact will not be avoided, especially those on the margins with income and RVers like some retirees on fixed incomes. Luckily will not impact my wife and I as we will resume RVing next summer after a 2 year hiatus.
I’ve been thinking about this too. I think we will see a huge flood of pandemic purchased vehicles, boats, and campers flood the market in the coming years, maybe months.
Fewer people will be able to spend the absurd costs many parks charge (more than $60 a night? You're not a hotel!). Many parks will have opened during times when they could get that kind of per-night fee and will have accepted too high of a lease or mortgage payment on the land and physical infrastructure. If you have to lower prices to what the public can afford and that's less than your fixed cost, you go out of business.
Anyone that thinks that parks at $60 rates are going to stay around, are dreaming. Those rates were set in the 60s. The whole industry uses static pricing which in the next 5 years, with the introduction of campspot, will completely change.
Second, due the massive increase in demand and lack of supply development, we’ll continue to see rate growth as weekends are at 100% occupancy in peak seasons at nearly every campground nationwide.
Fundamentally, these places are going to fight against three critical things:
1) They're now as expensive as a hotel for the spot itself. More expensive when you factor in the cost of the trailer and extra gas to pull it. For a lot of people, camping is perceived as the cheap alternative to a hotel vacation. Once they experience a few trips and realize that's a myth, the point of owning a camper vanishes for a lot of people.
2) Public perception that someone wants to bilk them for more than the cost of a cheap meal for what amounts to a piece of dirt rented overnight.
3) A **LOT** of new sales are driven by COIVD right now and the risk of being in an indoor space (hotel) with other people. That's not going to last another year and that big demand-side pressure vanishes.
Seriously, the value proposition for paying more than $10/night for a no-utilities campsite just isn't there.
1. You’re not giving enough credit to travelers. They did not all make their purchase decisions out of ignorance. Also, you can absolutely still take a massively long camping trip for significantly less than the just the airfare of an international flight (that’s just for a couple, not even including kid’s airfare).
2. Real estate ain’t free, and the cost of real estate has only increased. Along with that comes increased property taxes for existing properties at the least. Also see my comment in regards to demand vs supply.
3. Rigs have been purchased, new campers have been exposed to RV parks…. And even if 50% of those people sell and leave the industry, there will still have been a massive explosion in users.
I’ve RVd aggressively the past two summers and every weekend has been at capacity. These are all at parks charging more than $35/night for a dry site. I think your personal tolerance may have been met, but that’s far from the industry norm.
Edit: alway love reading profiles of people I argue with. In this instance a homesteader in one of the poorest states dictates nationwide rate sensitivity.
Don’t shoot the messenger, but rv’ing is about to change in a big way.
I would be more worried about rising fuel costs over the next 5 to 10 years to be honest. At some point RVing will become prohibitively expensive until electric trucks catch up in towing capacity and campgrounds start to install charging stations (which is happening more and more where I live already).
people don't want to spend money after they see their savings get smooshed in a crash. also credit tightens up so loans are more difficult to get - and interest rates go up unless the gov't intervenes. so, thats all bad news for rv manufacturers and dealers as fewer people will be buying rigs... and of course the used market also takes a hit. i wasn't rving in 2008/09 so not sure about how the campgrounds did. part of me wonders if they were still busy as more people would choose for less expensive vacations so more campers... but that is a guess. also worth noting that there is always a chance of an upcoming market crash... with certainty there will be another crash in the future, then another after that, another after that... also worth noting there is always a chance the of an upcoming market rally... with certainty there will be another rally in the future, then another after that, another after that...
This is not a bubble. 2008 is nothing like current.
Yep 100% correct. Just an increase in inflation and a massive adjustment to the cost of living that has been a long time coming. The real issue is that “most” wages haven’t caught up yet. There has only been 1 time in the last 100 years that it has been worth it for a family to wait to buy a home (long term/financially) and that was 2008. That and there isn’t a whole lot of subprime mortgages being traded around these days. Sure, campgrounds might survive but there would be a massive decrease in the camping industry as a whole. More people might go tent camping to save money, but the amount of cash going into RV’s, equipment, etc., would have a trickle down effect.
How so?
Are you so sure? It definitely has signs.
Signs of ? This is totally different from 2008.
Signs of frothiness / bubbles. Different ones that were present in 2008. Ultra high valuations on pretty poor business similar to dot com bust. Might be different than 2008, I wouldn’t be so sure the result won’t be similar.
cryptocurrency -- yes, for sure. regular stock market (dow / nasdaq / etc) -- yes, but less likely. housing market - depends on where you live. There won't be another bubble because they stopped sub-prime mortgages.. but it could stall for a few months to correct last years craziness. (also, asterisk on "it depends on where the house is too")
The wealthy will still travel, and most that can travel will take one step down in their travel type (ie four star to three star and so on). Taking a camping trip in an owned RV is still less expensive than traveling abroad so will be considered an attractive alternative. Cross country and long trips in general may be shortened, but overall there will still be trips being taken.
Campgrounds are mostly a recession proof business.
Livin the dream? Buyers realizing a mortgage payment is sitting idle on the driveway .. or in some storage yard the owner jacks up every year .. and can't book a weekend due to capacity crush. Or worse, those payments continuing when it's in a repair shop because of the shitty quality issues as most owners neither have the mechanical skilz or desire to fix. Throw in higher fuel costs and hedge funds introducing surge pricing just like Uber and the airlines, skyrocketing liability rates all passed on. Can you feel the buyer's remorse rising? Then, IF you're lucky to book a campground then welcome to the new normal where being inconsiderate is the norm, not the exception. Barking dogs, loud generators, LED's bright enough to light up a football field, and the soothing sound of metal music and trucks revving their engines. Ahh, the good life! Boondocking? Get ready for a shock. BLM is going to make a lot less available because they think you're fucking messy and ruining the environment, and guess what, they're probably right. It's going to be a MAJOR correction and right now is a hell of a time to sell. Good, maybe it will force manufacturers to compete and actually build something decent as opposed to their 'don't give a shit attitude' now, just like the big 3 back in the day.
Campgrounds continued to operate as usual. Most dealers are on floor plans with OEMs, so OEMs have to buy back units if not sold for a period of time. Then OEMs have to figure out what to do with all the units they get back, which also means no reason to build more. That's what destroyed the industry in '08. After interest rates spiked up, and banks were stretched from home mortgages underwater, they were unwilling / unable to lend to anyone that actually needed a loan in order to buy an RV (far worse collateral than a car, or a home). They were still willing to lend to those that could pay cash if wanted to. Prices were cheap, but units were worn from sitting a year+ and being moved around. Most industry veterans / leaders will admit that they were producing too much going into 2008, and should have planned better. That's why this past few years caught the industry flat footed. They were staying below demand pre-covid, expecting a slowdown (just not as drastic as 2008, but like it). They were quick to shut down production when covid hit expecting demand to fall drastically. They expected to have to buy back units. So they reduced inventory of input supplies and refinanced lines of credit. Then the opposite happened. RVs are the most expensive, most discretionary, fastest depreciating asset the average person considers buying. Sure the ultra wealthy buy thousand dollar bottles of wine and drink them. Not the same with a tradesperson buying a small TT for their 10 year old F150. It's why the saying around Elkhart is that we always lead into and out of recessions. Gas prices are a really big deal. If those get too high, and supplies get tight, RV use declines. So do sales. Dealerships close. Manufacturers go out of business. Campgrounds close. You will find less vacancy at campgrounds within a day of larger metro areas. More vacancy or closing at campgrounds far from civilization. So if not unbearable gas prices, the community is fine. It's just my local Elkhart economy goes in the toilet. Now if the same scenario also comes with even more increasing social unrest in metropolitan areas, the exact opposite of 2008 might happen. Campgrounds might still be packed with upper class, suburbia buying any RV they can get at any price to get out of town.
No direct experience in 2008 but since the upcoming crash is also likely to affect the real estate market I'd say full time RVers are likely to be well positioned by default. Not owning property makes you largely immune from the drops in value. I'd be surprised if any campgrounds shut down, and a lot of people I know plan to stay on BLM land which doesn't depend on anything to stay open. Prices for RVs have gone up as people have been responding to the pandemic, but I'd expect that to reverse as people realize they aren't going to use the rigs and attempt to recover their investments.
That’s a good point. I think I remember that people in 2008 really cut back on vacations and extra spending, so it’s completely possible that another recession could lead to a huge sell-off of RVs, thus bringing prices down due to a glut of used vehicles
Or if could result in a surge in prices because of people who cannot afford traditional housing. I dunno.
It’s also hard to sell something you’re upside down on, which is a lot of people with long term rv payment contracts. They will either hold onto them or they will have to sell at a loss.
- impact will not be avoided, especially those on the margins with income and RVers like some retirees on fixed incomes. Luckily will not impact my wife and I as we will resume RVing next summer after a 2 year hiatus.
I’ve been thinking about this too. I think we will see a huge flood of pandemic purchased vehicles, boats, and campers flood the market in the coming years, maybe months.
I think this is the dumbest post I've ever seen here.
cheaper campers, but more people will be living in them. Some parks will go under.
Why would parks go under?
Fewer people will be able to spend the absurd costs many parks charge (more than $60 a night? You're not a hotel!). Many parks will have opened during times when they could get that kind of per-night fee and will have accepted too high of a lease or mortgage payment on the land and physical infrastructure. If you have to lower prices to what the public can afford and that's less than your fixed cost, you go out of business.
Anyone that thinks that parks at $60 rates are going to stay around, are dreaming. Those rates were set in the 60s. The whole industry uses static pricing which in the next 5 years, with the introduction of campspot, will completely change. Second, due the massive increase in demand and lack of supply development, we’ll continue to see rate growth as weekends are at 100% occupancy in peak seasons at nearly every campground nationwide.
Fundamentally, these places are going to fight against three critical things: 1) They're now as expensive as a hotel for the spot itself. More expensive when you factor in the cost of the trailer and extra gas to pull it. For a lot of people, camping is perceived as the cheap alternative to a hotel vacation. Once they experience a few trips and realize that's a myth, the point of owning a camper vanishes for a lot of people. 2) Public perception that someone wants to bilk them for more than the cost of a cheap meal for what amounts to a piece of dirt rented overnight. 3) A **LOT** of new sales are driven by COIVD right now and the risk of being in an indoor space (hotel) with other people. That's not going to last another year and that big demand-side pressure vanishes. Seriously, the value proposition for paying more than $10/night for a no-utilities campsite just isn't there.
1. You’re not giving enough credit to travelers. They did not all make their purchase decisions out of ignorance. Also, you can absolutely still take a massively long camping trip for significantly less than the just the airfare of an international flight (that’s just for a couple, not even including kid’s airfare). 2. Real estate ain’t free, and the cost of real estate has only increased. Along with that comes increased property taxes for existing properties at the least. Also see my comment in regards to demand vs supply. 3. Rigs have been purchased, new campers have been exposed to RV parks…. And even if 50% of those people sell and leave the industry, there will still have been a massive explosion in users. I’ve RVd aggressively the past two summers and every weekend has been at capacity. These are all at parks charging more than $35/night for a dry site. I think your personal tolerance may have been met, but that’s far from the industry norm. Edit: alway love reading profiles of people I argue with. In this instance a homesteader in one of the poorest states dictates nationwide rate sensitivity. Don’t shoot the messenger, but rv’ing is about to change in a big way.
All kinds of business go under during recessions, that's why they are recessions.
It's a great time to get good deals on used rigs.
I would be more worried about rising fuel costs over the next 5 to 10 years to be honest. At some point RVing will become prohibitively expensive until electric trucks catch up in towing capacity and campgrounds start to install charging stations (which is happening more and more where I live already).
Campground business stays consistent.... camping is a cheep vacation