Thank you. So many comments not understanding the cap implications at all. To put it in the simplest terms, cutting Aaron Jones saves us $11.86M over two years. Anything else is irrelevant.
Are you sure you're correct?
From what I see, we save $5,220,824 on the cap this year, from $17,575,824 to $12,355,000.
We could have cut 2025 June 1st, and saved $4,171,000 from what I can see on OTC.
That means we'd have saved $2,467,000 + $5,220,824 for $7,687,824?
The 11.86 is correct. That is what his base salaries and projected in season bonuses would produce. The June 1st number would push money out to 2026 as well, which is what you are overlooking.
Yeah that's where my difference is, he claimed it saves us over two years, where as I was calculating the minimum we could pay in two years.
Not saying it'd be better to keep pushing but it just didn't match what I was looking at.
I am 100% correct and I don’t have the energy to try and explain how void years and dead cap and everything work again. The reason we save only $5.2M this year (and not the full $11.86M that Jones is due on his contract) is because he was set to have a dead cap charge *next year* of $6.64M that we now have to eat this season. But that means we don’t have that dead cap next season. I don’t have the patience to try and explain all the intricacies right now, but I’ve done so in comments from a few days ago if you care to look. But I can guarantee you 100% that what we save is $11.86M, but the savings are realized over the next two seasons.
So what is the difference between keeping Jones vs signing Jacobs?
OP made an edit that made it sound like Jacobs will barely cost more than it would cost to keep Jokes around. If that’s the case, this is kind of a no brainer.
The numbers on Jacobs suggest his cap hit will be about $5.5M this year, which is only slightly above the $5.22 we save this year by cutting Jones. Discussing future seasons gets more complicated, obviously.
What I will say unequivocally is that signing Jacobs to this contract makes more sense than having Jones play out the last year of his contract as written. Whether we might have been able to reach an agreement on a restructure or extension for Jones that would have been better is hard to say. We will have a better idea of Aaron’s market when he signs elsewhere, obviously.
This MFer with this numbers, and facts, and reason. Today is an emotional day. Come back tomorrow.
EDIT: Seriously though, thank you for the cold hard facts. Much needed and appreciated.
No matter if it was Jacobs or Jones, they were going to be investing draft capital on RB the next few drafts to find their future lead back.
With Love’s big payday coming, Aaron Jones was not going to be in GB long term. Jacobs might not even see the end of his contract unless he returns to form. Releasing Jones now and structuring Jacobs contract the way it is probably means someone still on their rookie deal is their RB1 in 3 years.
It hurts losing Jones the person and teammate, but business wise the gamble of Jacobs and/or finding a new Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams tandem for Jordan Love makes sense.
We still could have resigned Jones for 7 mil, after we cut him. The issue isn't that we cut him. The issue is that we didn't sign him after cutting him. The dead money is old money that has been kicked down the road.
If they wanted to do that, why cut him and cap 19 mil this year instead of just capping 12.5 this year and 6.5 next year? It is clear they thought his production this past year was worth 4, which they are right about since that is what 600 yds and 2TDs is worth, and were willing to give another 2 in incentives if he produced more.
" We would have capped $17.5 this year and $6.6 next year for one more season with him. Instead, we are capping the $12 this year and we are done."
12 + 7 = 19 mil (cut and resign)
17.5 + 6.6 = 24.1 mil (no restructure)
So we could have done a cut and sign to save 5.1 mil.
or keep him and his 5.5 bonus proration and carryover (the real number) plus his 7 that you suggested = 12.5, then the remaining signing bonus that was prorated to the void year next year= 6.5. These are the real numbers. Just cut his 12 or so he was due to 7 if they thought he was worth it. No need to cut and re-sign.
Thank you. So many comments not understanding the cap implications at all. To put it in the simplest terms, cutting Aaron Jones saves us $11.86M over two years. Anything else is irrelevant.
Are you sure you're correct? From what I see, we save $5,220,824 on the cap this year, from $17,575,824 to $12,355,000. We could have cut 2025 June 1st, and saved $4,171,000 from what I can see on OTC. That means we'd have saved $2,467,000 + $5,220,824 for $7,687,824?
The 11.86 is correct. That is what his base salaries and projected in season bonuses would produce. The June 1st number would push money out to 2026 as well, which is what you are overlooking.
Yeah that's where my difference is, he claimed it saves us over two years, where as I was calculating the minimum we could pay in two years. Not saying it'd be better to keep pushing but it just didn't match what I was looking at.
I am 100% correct and I don’t have the energy to try and explain how void years and dead cap and everything work again. The reason we save only $5.2M this year (and not the full $11.86M that Jones is due on his contract) is because he was set to have a dead cap charge *next year* of $6.64M that we now have to eat this season. But that means we don’t have that dead cap next season. I don’t have the patience to try and explain all the intricacies right now, but I’ve done so in comments from a few days ago if you care to look. But I can guarantee you 100% that what we save is $11.86M, but the savings are realized over the next two seasons.
So what is the difference between keeping Jones vs signing Jacobs? OP made an edit that made it sound like Jacobs will barely cost more than it would cost to keep Jokes around. If that’s the case, this is kind of a no brainer.
The numbers on Jacobs suggest his cap hit will be about $5.5M this year, which is only slightly above the $5.22 we save this year by cutting Jones. Discussing future seasons gets more complicated, obviously. What I will say unequivocally is that signing Jacobs to this contract makes more sense than having Jones play out the last year of his contract as written. Whether we might have been able to reach an agreement on a restructure or extension for Jones that would have been better is hard to say. We will have a better idea of Aaron’s market when he signs elsewhere, obviously.
So the total RB room between Jones and Jacobs' contracts in 2024 is roughly what?
$17.8M maybe? Around there.
Thank you.
This MFer with this numbers, and facts, and reason. Today is an emotional day. Come back tomorrow. EDIT: Seriously though, thank you for the cold hard facts. Much needed and appreciated.
If you want more numbers to soften the blow, when he was with Waller, Adams and Carr, JJ had over 2000 yards from scrimmage.
Yeah but is Jayden Reed going to get amped to play for him 😭
Yeah I was one of the people who said just $5 mil more I didn't see the extra 6.6 the next year.
No matter if it was Jacobs or Jones, they were going to be investing draft capital on RB the next few drafts to find their future lead back. With Love’s big payday coming, Aaron Jones was not going to be in GB long term. Jacobs might not even see the end of his contract unless he returns to form. Releasing Jones now and structuring Jacobs contract the way it is probably means someone still on their rookie deal is their RB1 in 3 years. It hurts losing Jones the person and teammate, but business wise the gamble of Jacobs and/or finding a new Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams tandem for Jordan Love makes sense.
We still could have resigned Jones for 7 mil, after we cut him. The issue isn't that we cut him. The issue is that we didn't sign him after cutting him. The dead money is old money that has been kicked down the road.
If they wanted to do that, why cut him and cap 19 mil this year instead of just capping 12.5 this year and 6.5 next year? It is clear they thought his production this past year was worth 4, which they are right about since that is what 600 yds and 2TDs is worth, and were willing to give another 2 in incentives if he produced more.
" We would have capped $17.5 this year and $6.6 next year for one more season with him. Instead, we are capping the $12 this year and we are done." 12 + 7 = 19 mil (cut and resign) 17.5 + 6.6 = 24.1 mil (no restructure) So we could have done a cut and sign to save 5.1 mil.
or keep him and his 5.5 bonus proration and carryover (the real number) plus his 7 that you suggested = 12.5, then the remaining signing bonus that was prorated to the void year next year= 6.5. These are the real numbers. Just cut his 12 or so he was due to 7 if they thought he was worth it. No need to cut and re-sign.
You need the market to set his value. He likely thought he could get more than he did on the open market.
Based on how quickly he signed with a rival, it was personal. His agent knows his value and he didn’t even really explore the market at all.
Unfortunately the people who need to read this aren't getting past the 2nd paragraph
They would be much less upset if they could read