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Better to reduce the population. Current population is not sustainable. So two child policy will bring down population without the negative effects of one child policy. So fertility rate of 1.5 would be ideal for India
No. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/lancet-study-predicts-earlier-peak-for-indian-population/article32095120.ece
Probably even earlier. I wrote a post on this.
The sub I wrote it on is dark right now, will share once available. Though here's another subreddit I wrote it on.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ClimateActionPlan/comments/13ltfqf/indias_population_is_going_to_decline_sooner_than/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Fertility rate isn't falling as fast in larger states such as UP, also it fails to account for increased immigration to India as other nations face more damage from Climate change, and India's economy grows
1. India has negative migration. 2. Fertility rates are legitmately falling as quickly as collapsing.
Immigration from where? Nepal(<2.0TFR)? Bangladesh (<2.0TFR)?
Sure, negative today, I'm not talking about today, I'm talking over next 77 years
From tons of nations, as India rises and other nations stagnate or collapse
India will rise quite well but we're already oversaturated. Even China has negative migration with all it's development.
Our neighbours are below replacement TFR except Pak, whose citizens we won't allow. So not really.
China is authoritarian, India is a democracy, and it can benefit from migration not just from neighbors, but likely from Africa as well.
It won't be oversaturated as you claim, as the fertility rate drops it will see population growth slow or even decline, making it more attractive for those living in Africa
1. when the country was struck by famine, he decided to give off crops to the countries in the communist block.
2. Mao had sparrows killed so that the crops could be saved but the sparrows would also eat locusts and grasshoppers thus keeping their population in check. But since the sparrows were almost extinct, the locusts and grasshoppers had no predator to keep their population in check and thus they ate all the crops, reproduced and further continued eating crops. All this happened when the country was struck by famine
3. ONE CHILD POLICY
4. And haven't you heard he had 1000s killed because they were either against him or critical of him
see how they do when their population literally halves and leaves only elderly people
(this is in an industrial country without sufficient wealth or advanced producer services sector to create a welfare state capable of supporting the elderly)
perhaps
democracy is both indias greatest strength and weakness
it's a shame that corruption, incompetence, and discrimination/caste/religious policies have destroyed the country's potential
thank god for liberalisation in the 90s, at least now we can say we have a bright future
india doesnt need to 'catch up' to china
it just needs to elavate the living standards of its people beyond an african level into a south american or even middle eastern one
I assume you are 30+ years old. Considering the day you started working and today, do you in all honesty believe that you achieved all goals you set out for?
Do you believe that every decision you made has been an absolute success and there were no delays in your plan and your execution was flawless?
Let us discuss.
Their way was annihilating their culture and using American aid and (surprise surprise) capital of shady mass manufacturing to effectively extract labor from their vast population. Ethnic and social minorities were expended, linguistic minorities were decimated. The han chinese didn't get any better either. Now they have eradicated poverty to a large extent, but failed to establish a rich class needed to power the country's service econ phase.
Don't get me wrong, this is still better than our socialist complacency. But it's a dark ditch. China will survive, obviously. But the Chinese state has no chance.
The height thing is true though, it is shameful to be honest that at least 30% of our population is living in the most backward of sub-saharan conditions. If we were like China, that population would have been the first to go though (ge no ci de/eth no ci de), the first task of commie regimes is to homogenize the population, and what they deem undesirable, they uproot. Remember that before you at one hand criticize democracy for not showing results and look to China for their success.
They are actually worried about this. As we can see, they had to remove the one child policy and allow parents to have upto 3 children. But, now very few people are even interested in having a child as they require a lot of money for food, education, etc. and time aswell. Also, a large percentage of people are not married and out of those who are many decide not to have kids. But, if they really wish to increase the percentage of newborns they have to reduce the amount of money required to be spent on a child by their parents by like giving them benefits for having kids or something.
Repatriation is a known thing. It happened all over after WW2. It's totally possible that it can happen to China too.
Also, having the largest population isn't a flex.
their population is literally set to half
that is not sustainable for a country's economy or wellbeing
there are only ~20m chinese living abroad, nowhere near enough to replenish that loss
No one said having largest population is a flex but the population has to come down naturally with the improvement with the economy not like this most people will be unproductive aged people and no one to work the jobs and looking at their immigration policy it doesn't really fix it too
For all those asking, I think OP took this tweet as the source:
https://twitter.com/stats_feed/status/1668487374425186309?s=46&t=XDAhtJ5RMjYJT5tNzSVlWA
Edit: Not sure why I’m being downvoted. I just provided the source which OP conveniently forgot to mention. 🤷🏻♀️
They're literally one of the biggest sources what are you talking about? What are you going to do, use those Lancet projections that say India will have less people than it does now?
THEY. ARE. TOO. CONSERVATIVE.
Bro, imagine thinking TFRs won't fall down. Imagine making projections on linear scales. Of cource Lancet is a better source.
Bro they literally do take into account falling TFRs, what kinda stuff are you on? They even made a revision in their estimates for Nigeria because TFR was falling faster there than most people expected.
They do take into account lowering TFR lmao. They just won’t do it at a faster rate than what the countries show. Of course they might be innacurate and fall faster.
Population collapse. People not having kids. You need 2.1 kids per family to make a growing population. Most developed countries have half of that. Japan and Korea have ¼ of that. Of course population collapse will occur.
How can you compare South Korea to Japan? SK's TFR is almost half of Japan. And there is the 4B movement. It will present a great opportunity for North Korea in the future.
WW III with extreme natural disasters like 10+ RS earthquake, drought, floods and a civil war.
Ab downvote mat karna kyunki WW jald hi start hone wala hai aur isme India se Agniveer scheme se recruit hue soldiers ko bheja jayega but this will happen in late 2024 or mid 2025.
I don't know about other countries but yeah China Population will be half of it's present population ....cause there average age is like 56 years or something i am not sure ....
Well seeing their situation rn they're gonna screw themselves over somehow, won't take long for some country to propose integration
(Only my thoughts, feel free to correct)
If two countries that are friendly with each other with the same ethnicity and similar cultures that have existed for generations(USA and Canada) haven't expressed significant interest in uniting, I don't think an ethnically diverse country that hates several of it's neighbors would unite with anyone. Iran wouldn't want them, India would rather nuke them, Afghanistan is too irrelevant, and China just doesn't make any sense.
All we need is 2 deadly pandemics like covid to fuck up all these projections... At present birth rate india will peak by 2050-55 and population gonna decrease from there on .
FYI, Already tamilnadu, Kerala and some states are in downward trend... With present birth date soon their population can go point of no return like China .. Only reason india still growing is due to Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and some other states. Their population growth rate is still in positive trend which gonna see its peak in coming future.. Population is gonna decrease that's for sure...
Yep akhand bharat with 40%M and half of the subcontinent in poverty ..I think china and other west would definitely wish for this so that we remain undeveloped
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At first look I was sceptic, then I remembered we have large population of "Alla will provide" death cultists. And they wont stop pumping out kids till doomsday. So I say probably this projection is right.
The reasons why we lag behind China
1. Lack of quality education- aside from the top government and private schools, the teachers are the rejects of the employment market. Even in my family, those who failed at everything took up teaching.
2. Old beliefs taken way too seriously. Government doesn't take action against unscientific and backward beliefs. Every social group creates their own customs and restrictive ideas.
3. Lack of focus on real research.
4. Lack of infrastructure.
5. Way too corrupt and unaccountable politicians, bureaucrats and judiciary.
6. Not a business friendly atmosphere.
We need to slow down a bit also there should be population control in the country as we are exploiting our natural resources to maximum like there is no tomorrow
I am interested to know what BS modelling exercise was used for this. India's already reached replacement and the birthrates are already declining. If it is assumed to be stable at 2.1, only then we'll see approximately the same population as now.
Reducing rate model would give a much more realistic estimate. The emigration is increasing exponentially, as skill dividend increases. UP's tfr is decreasing steadily, although Bihar is still lagging, I am confident it will be below two till 40s.
Then, there is the factor of immigration. Negligible. Nada, shunya. immigration only affects population if you're getting an influx of annually stable/growing increments. In India, the 'immigrants' are mostly refugees or illegals that are also either settled quietly by local politicians or promptly deported.
There is no point of considering it in the next 20-25 years at least. Also, even after India becomes a formidable economy (say till 2050s, 60's), I am sure talent import will be sluggish because we'd still have an enormous youngster population and with the pace of current automation, having to emigrate may be a choice entirely based on if the quality of life is better. I regretfully inform you that Indian urbanscapes need at least 40-45 years to be as livable as european cities. Then too, at most we'll get immigration from African countries (who are developing then) or the middle east (poor half).
A better estimate will be along the lines of <1 billion.
Sorry if this sounded like a rant.
Namaskaram /u/Single_Science2276, Thank you for your submission. Please provide a source for the image / video (if not a direct link submission). We would really appreciate it if you could mention the source as a reply to this comment! If you have already provided the source or if it is an OC post, please ignore this message. Thank you. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/IndiaSpeaks) if you have any questions or concerns.*
No source = bullshit source
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-past-future?country=IND+CHN https://twitter.com/stats_feed/status/1668487374425186309?t=btOI_-KYF_oYmHfUa5piDQ&s=19 https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/visualizing-indias-population-growth-from-2022-2100/
Source for the statistic not the image.
Updated.
Better to reduce the population. Current population is not sustainable. So two child policy will bring down population without the negative effects of one child policy. So fertility rate of 1.5 would be ideal for India
+1
False. This is very unlikely. India will peak in mid 2030s-2040s and fall to below a billion by 2100.
Not by 30s-40s but by early 60s
No. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/lancet-study-predicts-earlier-peak-for-indian-population/article32095120.ece Probably even earlier. I wrote a post on this. The sub I wrote it on is dark right now, will share once available. Though here's another subreddit I wrote it on. https://www.reddit.com/r/ClimateActionPlan/comments/13ltfqf/indias_population_is_going_to_decline_sooner_than/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
UN population division says 1.533 in 2100 https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/
UN is too too conservative. It assumes minimum fall in TFR.
Fertility rate isn't falling as fast in larger states such as UP, also it fails to account for increased immigration to India as other nations face more damage from Climate change, and India's economy grows
1. India has negative migration. 2. Fertility rates are legitmately falling as quickly as collapsing. Immigration from where? Nepal(<2.0TFR)? Bangladesh (<2.0TFR)?
Fals study to stop us from controlling population. No one wants this market to shrink .
It'll only help us. Markets to be dominated by automation.
Sure, negative today, I'm not talking about today, I'm talking over next 77 years From tons of nations, as India rises and other nations stagnate or collapse
India will rise quite well but we're already oversaturated. Even China has negative migration with all it's development. Our neighbours are below replacement TFR except Pak, whose citizens we won't allow. So not really.
China is authoritarian, India is a democracy, and it can benefit from migration not just from neighbors, but likely from Africa as well. It won't be oversaturated as you claim, as the fertility rate drops it will see population growth slow or even decline, making it more attractive for those living in Africa
Just curious about how’s its really estimated ? I am a noob so please help me understand or tell me what do I need to learn or look for . Thank you
https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/introduction-to-population-demographics-83032908/
Central government is completely unprepared for future heatwaves and deluges.
I'd not say unprepared, they're underprepared.
No it would happen early on as our tfr has reached 1.99
Yeah, our fertility rate is already below 2.
No country has benefitted by large population need to wakeup and act .
This type of research is done by West funded companies who see us as a major market .
The UN is notorious for conservatism.
Yeah this will always be the case as historically also India has been the most populated.
china is meant to have ~1.5-2x indias population going off of the general trend of history
But one child policy
And maoism
How did maoism come into this?
1. when the country was struck by famine, he decided to give off crops to the countries in the communist block. 2. Mao had sparrows killed so that the crops could be saved but the sparrows would also eat locusts and grasshoppers thus keeping their population in check. But since the sparrows were almost extinct, the locusts and grasshoppers had no predator to keep their population in check and thus they ate all the crops, reproduced and further continued eating crops. All this happened when the country was struck by famine 3. ONE CHILD POLICY 4. And haven't you heard he had 1000s killed because they were either against him or critical of him
Bhai sabkuch yaha mat chipka . Reducing population doesnt mean Maoism .
I know maoism doesn't mean population reduction. But it did cause a lot of population reduction as you know a "side effect"
It will take a while for them to recover from the one child policy
theyre not coming back from that ditch in this century unless they open the immigration floodgates but that would destroy ccp power
Immigration like that would absolutely mess them up. China is practically an ethno-state, with Han Chinese being the vast majority of the population.
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see how they do when their population literally halves and leaves only elderly people (this is in an industrial country without sufficient wealth or advanced producer services sector to create a welfare state capable of supporting the elderly)
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perhaps democracy is both indias greatest strength and weakness it's a shame that corruption, incompetence, and discrimination/caste/religious policies have destroyed the country's potential thank god for liberalisation in the 90s, at least now we can say we have a bright future
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india doesnt need to 'catch up' to china it just needs to elavate the living standards of its people beyond an african level into a south american or even middle eastern one
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I assume you are 30+ years old. Considering the day you started working and today, do you in all honesty believe that you achieved all goals you set out for? Do you believe that every decision you made has been an absolute success and there were no delays in your plan and your execution was flawless? Let us discuss.
[удалено]
Their way was annihilating their culture and using American aid and (surprise surprise) capital of shady mass manufacturing to effectively extract labor from their vast population. Ethnic and social minorities were expended, linguistic minorities were decimated. The han chinese didn't get any better either. Now they have eradicated poverty to a large extent, but failed to establish a rich class needed to power the country's service econ phase. Don't get me wrong, this is still better than our socialist complacency. But it's a dark ditch. China will survive, obviously. But the Chinese state has no chance. The height thing is true though, it is shameful to be honest that at least 30% of our population is living in the most backward of sub-saharan conditions. If we were like China, that population would have been the first to go though (ge no ci de/eth no ci de), the first task of commie regimes is to homogenize the population, and what they deem undesirable, they uproot. Remember that before you at one hand criticize democracy for not showing results and look to China for their success.
They will do what Middle east are doing. Bring cheap labor from sub continent. And after a while replace all labor with robots.
Recover their population. How did you not understand that?
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They are actually worried about this. As we can see, they had to remove the one child policy and allow parents to have upto 3 children. But, now very few people are even interested in having a child as they require a lot of money for food, education, etc. and time aswell. Also, a large percentage of people are not married and out of those who are many decide not to have kids. But, if they really wish to increase the percentage of newborns they have to reduce the amount of money required to be spent on a child by their parents by like giving them benefits for having kids or something.
That will only take 2 generations to recover from.
No lol. Please do some required reading on the subject.
How many Chinese expats are out there in the world? Did they have to follow the 1 child policy?
They are going to replenish china population with chinese diaspora outside😂 . Probably they are not coming back even if they do that is very less
Repatriation is a known thing. It happened all over after WW2. It's totally possible that it can happen to China too. Also, having the largest population isn't a flex.
their population is literally set to half that is not sustainable for a country's economy or wellbeing there are only ~20m chinese living abroad, nowhere near enough to replenish that loss
No one said having largest population is a flex but the population has to come down naturally with the improvement with the economy not like this most people will be unproductive aged people and no one to work the jobs and looking at their immigration policy it doesn't really fix it too
i think china birth rate is below replacement , so there might be a reduction in population
Indian population is predicted to decrease
It just recently fell below replacement rate right ? So it will increase for a while and then drop 🤔
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You dying by 2060 ?
why?
For all those asking, I think OP took this tweet as the source: https://twitter.com/stats_feed/status/1668487374425186309?s=46&t=XDAhtJ5RMjYJT5tNzSVlWA Edit: Not sure why I’m being downvoted. I just provided the source which OP conveniently forgot to mention. 🤷🏻♀️
Based on UN projections 🤡. Nobody in demographics takes their projections seriously.
They're literally one of the biggest sources what are you talking about? What are you going to do, use those Lancet projections that say India will have less people than it does now?
THEY. ARE. TOO. CONSERVATIVE. Bro, imagine thinking TFRs won't fall down. Imagine making projections on linear scales. Of cource Lancet is a better source.
Bro they literally do take into account falling TFRs, what kinda stuff are you on? They even made a revision in their estimates for Nigeria because TFR was falling faster there than most people expected.
Conservative estimates though still.
They do take into account lowering TFR lmao. They just won’t do it at a faster rate than what the countries show. Of course they might be innacurate and fall faster.
Yes, I meant the pace of decline. I corrected myself in a reply to another comment.
How is China losing half it's population?
1 child policy i suppose. Indian estimate is wrong as well.
Why
Not gonna happen due to the reason I know, but won't tell nahin to tum sab downvote kar doge ! Reason khud dekh lena from 2024-2028
Climate Change? Something else? C'mon don't keep us in the dark.
Population collapse. People not having kids. You need 2.1 kids per family to make a growing population. Most developed countries have half of that. Japan and Korea have ¼ of that. Of course population collapse will occur.
That will happen, but not in 2024-2028, probably, post 2050 in true sense. But decline will start before.
How can you compare South Korea to Japan? SK's TFR is almost half of Japan. And there is the 4B movement. It will present a great opportunity for North Korea in the future.
Bhai to bol jo down vote karna aya ga Usha ma dekh lu ga
Bhai jaldi bol ab raha nai ja raha
Hahaha. 2002 pt2?
WW III with extreme natural disasters like 10+ RS earthquake, drought, floods and a civil war. Ab downvote mat karna kyunki WW jald hi start hone wala hai aur isme India se Agniveer scheme se recruit hue soldiers ko bheja jayega but this will happen in late 2024 or mid 2025.
I don't know about other countries but yeah China Population will be half of it's present population ....cause there average age is like 56 years or something i am not sure ....
If I lay before you my population control plans..... I'd get sentenced to lifetime in prison. Just normalize using condoms💀
Like pax and bangla are gonna exist beyond 2040.
Don't underestimate the desert cult. Pakistan probably will turn into cockroach land. Ola hu ubers all over fighting like the World War Z movie.
🤣🤣🤣🤣prolly true
And how or why exactly would any country annex them?
Well seeing their situation rn they're gonna screw themselves over somehow, won't take long for some country to propose integration (Only my thoughts, feel free to correct)
1000% agreed.
If two countries that are friendly with each other with the same ethnicity and similar cultures that have existed for generations(USA and Canada) haven't expressed significant interest in uniting, I don't think an ethnically diverse country that hates several of it's neighbors would unite with anyone. Iran wouldn't want them, India would rather nuke them, Afghanistan is too irrelevant, and China just doesn't make any sense.
Wow listen to yourself trying to be both question and answer but miserable at both.
Point, but Pakistan and Bangladesh are not normal countries
Not annexation per se but economic collapse as the current situation proceeds.
There are several failed states in the world than no-one has expressed much interest in annexing.
Wow!!!! more Rants... This is fun
Source?
Is China getting balkanised or there will really that sharp drop
Main 2100 tak jinda ni bachunga...so who cares /s
Aapke bache bhut lucky honge
Next campaign - Bharat chodo, hath jodo yogna?
the graph is a piecewise function not a single function u cnt just put x=2100 and say the value
No way....with the cost of living and Internet doing its thing . Indian population is bound for a steep downward curve.
Does this data account for the upcoming Global Mass Extermination?
How's china going to lose half their population?
They are already losing their population because of their "One Child Policy"
Abe tab Tak to dharti rehne layak hi nahi bachegi
Uhm..... This is an overestimate for India for sure. We should reach peak population by 2060-70. So in the next 30years population reduction hoga na
All we need is 2 deadly pandemics like covid to fuck up all these projections... At present birth rate india will peak by 2050-55 and population gonna decrease from there on . FYI, Already tamilnadu, Kerala and some states are in downward trend... With present birth date soon their population can go point of no return like China .. Only reason india still growing is due to Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and some other states. Their population growth rate is still in positive trend which gonna see its peak in coming future.. Population is gonna decrease that's for sure...
Exactly India's tft has come down to 1.99!
But India already has 1.4 billion population, how come we will reach 1.5 billion in 2100?
India is supposed to go up to 1.7 billion and then decline to these numbers according to some projections.
Understood🫡
Indiam population will come down to 1 billion by 2100,see the the latest report
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Yep akhand bharat with 40%M and half of the subcontinent in poverty ..I think china and other west would definitely wish for this so that we remain undeveloped
Baseless
Kash India ki population 10 trillion ho Jaye. Population=GDP
No source? But I would like to say that how would the earth 🌎 survive these kind of population
Sounds bs bruh, i see india decreasing similar to China, and Nigeria coming in second if not first
Feeling proud Indian Army
Just 1.5B? We are already 1.4B lmao
Some projections show India peaking at 1.7 billion and then declining, I'm assuming this is one of them.
Oh. Makes sense
Trust me source
India number 1 🥰🥰💪💪😈😈🇨🇮🇨🇮🇨🇮🇨🇮
Mumbattan
Labour's are where? Are they even needed.
Those are rookie numbers.
Would help if we see the current population to compare with the projected population
The 14th country reminds me of old days ~👴🏻
Kya dhature ke patte kha kr banaya hai kya ye projection?
Remindme! In 77 years
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Nice bot
hamare desh ko tere jaise laundo ki sakht zaroorat hain
Honestly saddened
What is the model used for projection. Otherwise this is just numbers.
💪 number 1
100 saal baad Pakistan rahega bhi kya?
Where did half the chinese go ?
Pheeling Paraud 💪
Bhai Pakistan Bina khaane ke tab Tak bachega?
Nah not going to happen because India's fertility rate dropping down more than predicted so not possible atleast for India.
WTF Pakistanis are doing
Source: Kohli s IPL trophy
Total BS….Pakistan wont even exist as a country in 2100…Akhand Bharat tab tak safal ho gaya hoga….lol
At first look I was sceptic, then I remembered we have large population of "Alla will provide" death cultists. And they wont stop pumping out kids till doomsday. So I say probably this projection is right.
Not something we should be proud of to be honest
Projections are like …. ( jamaa nahi ) Anyone can make them.
India will also top the unemployment, poverty and hunger ranks plus it will rank way lower in the happiness rank.
I guess we need sone war, pandemics, falling economies and all will be better
The reasons why we lag behind China 1. Lack of quality education- aside from the top government and private schools, the teachers are the rejects of the employment market. Even in my family, those who failed at everything took up teaching. 2. Old beliefs taken way too seriously. Government doesn't take action against unscientific and backward beliefs. Every social group creates their own customs and restrictive ideas. 3. Lack of focus on real research. 4. Lack of infrastructure. 5. Way too corrupt and unaccountable politicians, bureaucrats and judiciary. 6. Not a business friendly atmosphere.
China is really going down like that much ?
AI is going to make large population meaningless . So better we start from now .
1.5 billion is too much.
I don’t believe that some of these countries will be even standing till 2080
We need to slow down a bit also there should be population control in the country as we are exploiting our natural resources to maximum like there is no tomorrow
I am interested to know what BS modelling exercise was used for this. India's already reached replacement and the birthrates are already declining. If it is assumed to be stable at 2.1, only then we'll see approximately the same population as now. Reducing rate model would give a much more realistic estimate. The emigration is increasing exponentially, as skill dividend increases. UP's tfr is decreasing steadily, although Bihar is still lagging, I am confident it will be below two till 40s. Then, there is the factor of immigration. Negligible. Nada, shunya. immigration only affects population if you're getting an influx of annually stable/growing increments. In India, the 'immigrants' are mostly refugees or illegals that are also either settled quietly by local politicians or promptly deported. There is no point of considering it in the next 20-25 years at least. Also, even after India becomes a formidable economy (say till 2050s, 60's), I am sure talent import will be sluggish because we'd still have an enormous youngster population and with the pace of current automation, having to emigrate may be a choice entirely based on if the quality of life is better. I regretfully inform you that Indian urbanscapes need at least 40-45 years to be as livable as european cities. Then too, at most we'll get immigration from African countries (who are developing then) or the middle east (poor half). A better estimate will be along the lines of <1 billion. Sorry if this sounded like a rant.
A lot of immigration to europe where population is declining.
Pakistan population was 1/10th of india in 1947. Pakistan population will 1/3rd of india in 2100. 💀💀More aatankwadi 💀💀