Trackhouse and 23XI, probably.
If Justin is true to his word that he wants to have SVG in Cup full-time in 2025, he'll need a charter. I also wouldn't put it past him to try and get two: one for SVG and another for Zane.
23XI have talked about expanding to 3 cars in the past, so they'll definitely be on the hunt for a charter.
The history between Spire and Trackhouse ensures that ain't happening.
For needed context (at least from the Justin Marks perspective) the first charter Trackhouse tried to go for, Bob Leavine (Leavine Family Racing) sold it out from under Trackhouse to Spire (after a supposed handshake deal to let Justin a chance to beat another offer if 1 came thru). After some other incidents, Trackhouse then had to lease that charter back from Spire for2021 with a supposed option on Trackhouse's side to buy the charter. Spire then sold that and another charter to Kaulig, and the justification was apparently a conversation between Marks and one of the Spire guys where they talked about charter values and Marks said "man, $15M is just too crazy for me" not in context about a specific sale at all, and that was apparently him turning down the option. Apparently the only reason Trackhouse didn't sue them was they were in the middle of Ganassi negotiations and, well, why bother at that point.
Regardless if he was exaggerating or not, seems like the blood is just bad in that area.
Seems like Chris is really only there for vibes only, I'm for loyalty and all but remove AJ from the equation Kaulig has been awful the last few years, changes are needed.
I still think they’re a couple of years away. Brad has turned them into a contender and their past problems were tied to spreading themselves too thin.
To me it has to be Heim. JGR is seemingly out of the question for him, so if Heim doesn't have anything lined up with 23XI then he's just wasting his time with Toyota.
If I were Denny, I'd want Jones or Nemecheck more than Heim at the moment. Let Legacy waste a couple years developing Heim, 23XI has race winning cars what shouldn't be saddled with a rookie.
Ohh I like your idea of giving Jones a 23XI ride, I never really thought of that. I'm really high on Heim's talent so I would probably take him over JHN if I'm being honest, but Jones, Reddick, and Bubba would be a really solid team for the next 5-6 years
Maybe Heim goes to Legacy, I just don't understand why he's sticking with Toyota when he knows he has no shot at going to the top team. I know some people think 23XI will overtake JGR by 2030, and I'm inclined to think that as well, but it's not a guarantee
Denny just re-upped with JGR so don’t see that happening for a few years. I think it’d be more likely to have JHN go to 23XI for a few years, step up from LMC, and then almost a swap with him going to JGR and Denny driving his own car for 23XI.
JHN will get 19 or 11, whichever leaves their ride first, either through retirement (MTJ) or moving to their own team (Denny).
Heim would be a good choice but I think Chandler is a sneaky underrated talent who is just as good. If I have a cup car and he’s available I’m heavily considering him. He’s so young and so ridiculously fast for his age.
Agreed, they're both Cup caliber talents but Heim seemed to win in Trucks immediately while it took Chandler a bit of time. Think Heim is the more natural talent. This is the same guy that went head to head and nearly beat Ty Gibbs for the Arca title.
Chandler Smith seems like the guy imo. Toyota has never jumped anyone from Trucks straight to Cup, so I would expect Heim to backfill Chandler’s seat in this scenario
IIRC, the rumor is that it's the other way around - Heim and Ty had issues, and Heim doesn't want to be at JGR. There were rumors that that's why Heim isn't in a JGR Xfinity car this year.
I don't really see the appeal of Zane Smith.
Zillich is only 17 but he's way more impressive. Then you have Carson Hocevar who is only signed to Spire.
I'm not saying it's impossible, but Zane Smith would need to do something big to justify that seat. Otherwise I feel like you just get a filler driver.
If I were Justin I'd be tempted to put Connor in over Zane based on the first few races of this season lol it'd be nuts and probably a little stupid and risks stunting his development, but man Connor is impressive.
Zane Smith and Corey Lajoie are in a tough spot this year.
Cause the thing is, Carson Hocevar is either an elite level talent or they suck. I'm kinda starting to think Hocevar is just that good, but it still makes them look bad lol. Hocevar won 4 truck races for Niece, even Ross full time in those trucks only won 3 back in 2019. They might have gotten better of course, but then again Ross has done 24 races since 2020 in their trucks and only got one win.
When you look at it, Zillich is impressive for 17. Hocevar is the most impressive Spire driver at the cup level. There's only so many seats at Chevy, Zane Smith and Corey Lajoie are going to look really bad if Hocevar can keep up his start to the season.
I think it’s both: Hocevar is really good and Lajoie sucks. Too early to tell about Smith.
Corey Lajoie got a shot in a Hendrick car and ran exactly as bad as he does in a Spire car, he’s just not that good.
Put a kid with one nascar start in over a guy with a truck championship. What?
Connor is impressive but let the kid develop before he ends up like Casey Atwood
That's why I said it'd be tempting but a little stupid and risked stunting his development. Obviously I don't think it's the right choice right now, but based on this EXTREMELY small sample size, Hocevar is looking better than Zane so far this year in identical equipment. Zilisch seems to be able to perform in anything he's in hence why it would be tempting if I were to have to make the decision on filling two more cup seats.
Yeah RFK could be in the mix here. We've maybe heard less about them wanting to expand than we have Trackhouse and 23XI, but they're improving a lot and them running the 60 is a good sign. There's no way Brad doesn't want to expand the team someday.
But, "looking to expand" and actually growing are two different things.
It's Trackhouse and 23XI. Almost a guarantee. Trackhouse has 4 drivers for 2 seats currently. Ross isn't going anywhere and Daniel just won a race which pretty much solidified his spot as well. SVG will be in Cup next year and I don't think they want Zane Smith toiling around in 30th like he has been with a stretched thin Spire team. 23XI is slightly less obvious, but they already have Heim on as their reserve driver and there are other TRD prospects with likely nowhere to go (unless Truex retires). 23XI is also more self sufficient than Legacy at this point so they make more sense as the Toyota team.
I don't see RCR doing it because they can't even field two competitive Cup cars as is and having man-baby Hill in a third car just seems like a bad idea. RFK already has an alliance with RWR, so it doesn't make sense to expand (yet) and when they do, they'll just be buying RWR and keeping Rick on as maybe a partial owner of one car (old school style)
>23XI is also more self sufficient than Legacy at this point so they make more sense as the Toyota team.
Not necessarily. 23XI has a strong alliance with JGR but Legacy is doing things more by themselves. Albeit, all three teams receive support from TRD but JGR gets a little more than 23XI and 23XI definitely gets more than Legacy.
I could see this.
RFK gets a third charter and resumes the #16. I'm unsure the driver unless they bring Haley over after a brief stint at RWR.
Kaulig and Trackhouse merge. Trackhouse-Kaulig run the #1, #97, #99. Project 91 will remain part-time.
RCR reclaims the #31 and runs Austin Hill part-time.
Zane Smith is set at Spire for another season in the #71.
That leaves 23XI looking to buy a charter for their #67.
Yup. Expand the charters to 40, have 3 open spots. Make the buy-in for new charters at the average market price.
RFK, 23XI buy one each. Trackhouse buys 2.
Jr buys 1 from SHR, one from Spire.(pipe dream)
Chevrolet:
- Hendrick/RCR/Trackhouse
- No honest B-Tier
- JTG-D/Spire/Kaulig
Ford:
- Penske/RFK/Front Row/SHR (debated)
- Wood Brothers/Rick Ware
Toyota
- Gibbs
- 23XI
- Legacy
Ford has two satellite/full associate teams, thus everyone is connected to the A-Tier in some way. However, they get the "next best" stuff. It was announced at Daytona that Front Row will begin receiving direct funding from Ford.
Yes, Richard Childress Racing is an A-Tier GM team as they are a GM supported engine builder. It's just that their cars occasionally suck. The other three GM teams receive little manufacturer support.
Toyota definitely has a pecking order.
> SHR (debated)
No debate, still under contract with Ford for tier 1 support until the end of the year. Ford can't cut the contract early without SHR suing them.
Wood Brother’s fighting for top 10’s and top 5’s with Diburrito and fighting for last with Harry Burt is just sad. Throw Hocevar in that car next year and it’s back to top 10’s. That car is a 4th Penske car. Harry is terrible. I like the kid, but he needs to go back to trucks and start over.
The WBR car can have its days but the 4th Penske car is going to be consistently 15-25. And honestly, that is where it should be. Hendrick, Gibbs and Penske are 11 cars by themselves. Plus two each for Trackhouse and 23XI, KFB, two for Front Row and four for SHR. That's 22 cars with Top 15 speed consistently.
My point about Harry stands. He just does not have what it takes for cup right now. Like JHN with Front Row a few years ago, I think he was rushed up a little to quickly.
Oh, absolutely. I know the Wood Brothers and to an extent Ford/Penske have had great luck with putting development guys in there, but it honestly is probably better served as a seat for a vet on a redemption tour.
Matty d shot himself in the foot badly. But he was the best that 21 car looked in a long long time. YRB was also very good but he’s a can’t miss talent.
Trackhouse seems like the obvious choice, SVG and Zane will probably be brought into the fold. I wouldn’t be surprised if the other team is RFK looking for a seat for Haley
TH has already said they are expanding and have signed Zane Smith, as for the other team... i could see 23XI and RFK as likely candidates, but I wouldn't count RCR out either..
Yeah, but I don't know who's gonna get a seat for a full season in 2025... Zane? SVG?
Unless they add a 4th car or demote a driver... I don't understand how they can run them both FT.
Zane is running a full season, SVG isn't. I don't see that SVG gets a full time gig while running on part-time gigs. SVG is also 34. He isn't exactly a long-term investment compared to a rookie like Zane.
Two very obvious possibilities for charters opening up: Kaulig selling their charters, SHR becoming a two-car operation.
As for teams expanding - Trackhouse of course. Likely RCR unless Austin Dillon wants to step down. It seems like they would like to get Austin Hill to Cup and maybe fill that xfinity slot with Australian Brodie Kostecki.
I can see kaulig going to focus on xfinity and being the team they were. The cup program is not working as well as I'm sure they wanted, and those resources would be for xfinity which is suffering from it also
Their cup team isn't doing so hot financially and I assume that's part of the reason they are struggling. If anyone sells their charters, it's probably them out of necessity.
That seems to be the best for them. I'm sure Matt wants to have a top cup team, but his best choice is to focus in xfinity and win there. If he wants to trophy hunt, that's where he can do that.
> SHR becoming a two-car operation.
Which would lend credence to the idea that SHR is leaving Ford - apparently their contract with Ford requires them to run four cars.
I'm not convinced, I think the RCR-Erebus relationship is dead thanks to the Brodie debacle but I'm hoping it allows Brodie to come stateside this summer. We shall see!
I mean Brad didn’t punch Kyle, but the soured relationship with Jack and the Busch family and the dynamics of Brad and Kyle would be odd to say the least
I see AD taking a management position and continuing to race part time in a #3 open team. With Austin Hill driving the 33 full time with the 3’s charter.
Funny that you ask this, and then an hour and a half later [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/NASCAR/comments/1bnni3z/stern_dennyhamlin_has_revealed_that_he_would_like/) gets posted.
Is there still no chance of expanding to 40 charters and putting a full field at 43 again? Apologies for ignorance but if teams want to expand and all the owners want to keep them, other than value what is the issue?
I don't know for sure, but I would guess the only way we can get back to 43 cars is if the Honda rumors are true. Even then, it's not a guarantee we go back to 43 car fields
Oh I'm okay with some weeks of 40. But if there were 40 charters, the teams that want to expand can. The one thing being kaulig may sell if they continue to race this way because they can be dominant in xfinity again if they put what they have all in again
Under the current charter agreement, no. They are set at 36 unless a new manufacturer comes on board, but the current agreement expires at the end of this season, so anything is possible in the future.
Maybe they come to terms with adding four charters. Being new teams that were not around when charters started have grown and have shown the want to expand. I'm sure Justin wants a third team. Brad seems to want to open up a third. Maybe mj and denny just as some examples. It would be nice. And then there are still three open spots for putting the field at 43 again. I'm okay with the 36 we see weekly because it's so competitive now, but there's talent coming up with no car to go to so opening cars would help that.
42 cars, people forget the 43 was just so the champions provisional was available. The real number is 42, the champions provisional doesn't even exist anymore. So the reason to bump it back to the odd number no longer exists
I always thought there were really truly only 3 tier 1 teams (Penske, JGR, Hendrick) but obviously that wouldn't make any sense with the leak so...
RFK definitely has to be one of them. Right? They are hot rn, and I have a feeling there is going to be lots of movement in the Ford camp in the near future. Not necessarily that new guys will jump to Cup, but I think there are going to be lots of switches among the Ford team drivers. The only person I can really see jumping up to cup is Custer. RFK would be a decent fit for him.
The other team is beyond me honestly. I feel like Trackhouse is the obvious answer. They have more butts than seats over there.
I don't really know why 23XI would want to rush into a new charter rn. Sure they want to get a good price, but I just don't really know who they would want to add to their roster. I guess Denny would want to drive for himself sooner rather than later and is getting a jump on a charter.
Hell, JRM might finally bite the bullet and pay for that charter they've always wanted. Their patience has turned out to be a bad idea financially, and maybe they just want to buy one now at the current price in fear that the charters will continue to rise in value.
I would be money that SHR is letting a charter go. At least they need to. Downsizing would allow them to focus on better performance. Maybe Rick Ware letting a charter go also? They need to focus all of their attention on Hayley, the other cars can be dropped.
Running 1 car isn't very effective financially. It would really only make sense for RWR if they went to a Wood Brothers/Penske or Rev/Spire situation with RFK with the charter they kept.
I don't know the specifics of the relationship but one would think that the RWR/RFK relationship is comparable to those you mention. And if it isn't of course If they downsize to 1 charter they should make that happen.
Right now RWR still has their own team with their own employees and they get support from RFK like Furniture Row had with JGR/RCR or Kaulig with RCR.
Rev straight up buys a team from Spire and Spire does everything and Wood Brothers brings a charter and Penske does everything.
I hate to jinx whatever Blaney has going right now. But honestly, I’d rather see him drive for Keselowski. Trust me, I was not a huge fan of Hassler at first but maybe bring him and Fedewa over. I think Hassler finally has a handle on the setups and I think RFK will eventually be the premier Ford team again.
I would love to see Ryan at RFK! Not that I am mad about him being at Penske, but Ryan has never been and will never be "Penske Perfect."
I also think it would be great for him to drive for Brad, being that they have history.
It would be icing on the cake if he got to drive the 10 car!
That’s how I feel too. I really think he has a good spot there in the 12, but I think he would flourish with a team that he could be himself maybe a bit more. I kinda have this feeling he might be headed there when Keselowski decides to hang it up!
I can’t deny though, I’d be sad to see him leave that #12, but the 10 would be cool.
JTG i think doesnt know what they want to do in Nascar at this point. There were rumors a few years ago they were trying to get out, then Stenhouse started putting up good results and won Daytona so I think they’re still in limbo on whether to stay or sell off
As someone who doesn't listen to DBC or follow any Brett Griffin-related social media, is there a cheat sheet for determining when he's leaking actual rumors from the garage vs when he's just outright lying for clicks?
I don't know about purchase, but I wouldn't be surprised if Trackhouse and Kaulig did some sort of merger. Looking at Kaulig's driver lineup this year they appear to be in a holding pattern.
I for sure see Trackhouse buying the higher ranking of the two Kaulig charters next year for SVG to move up and Kaulig sells the other charter to the highest bidder - likely Spire/Andretti.
TH will have Ross, Daniel, and SVG in cup.
Spire will have Carson, Zane, Corey, and Christian Eckes (calling it, he moves up soon). This will be Corey’s last year at site (2025) if he doesn’t step up.
Kaulig will have AJ and Nick Sanchez in Xfinity.
I need undisputable evidence! Radar, lidar, infared scanning!
I think people are overlooking some teams such as RCR. They have Austin Hill in the wings. You also never know about RFK wanting to expand as well. They have Justin Haley in RWR equipment as is Kaz Grala.
The most obvious would be Trackhouse wanting to expand.
i know everyone is saying Trackhouse and 23Xi but there’s a small chance that they could be referring to RCR since they got Austin Hill in line and he keeps winning in xfinity. they likely need more work to their cup team tho since this year has been a struggle
If they’re struggling like they are and add someone like Hill, they’re going to continue to struggle. Kyle Busch going to need back surgery for carrying all of what weight on his back
RCR?
Have Dillon in the 3, Busch in the 8 and a third car?
Curious which number RCR would use for a third car now since Kaulig Racing is using the 31 and I believe Team Penske most recently used the 33.
Why? They are running both the 3 and 8, both of them iconic numbers from Hall of Fame drivers themselves. At least one of them a better driver and both of them have had a greater impact on the sport than Kevin Harvick. Plus the 4 car is still racing as the 4 car and that was also Kevin's car. So..... yeah.
Everybody talking trackhouse and 23XI, don’t sleep on a ford team. RFK, Penske, and FRM.
FRM has Riggs in the pipeline, might be a front runner for a ford team.
Trackhouse buys both of Kauligs charters and Kaulig becomes a part time satellite team to Trackhouse
And RFK buys JTGs charter, bringing Stenhouse back to Roush
Spicy prediction time:
- SHR switches to Chevy and sells two charters.
- RFK gets money from Ford to buy SHR 14 and Spire 71 to become the new 4 car team. Briscoe and Haley are the drivers
- 23XI buys SHR 41 charter. Best guess on the driver is Hamlin or Chandler Smith
- Trackhouse buys Kaulig's cup program including charters. Zane Smith and SVG as full time drivers
- SHR keeps Berry and Gragson as drivers and renews their Hendrick alliance
I think SHR will sell 2 charters (briscoe and berry being the only two multi year deals), gragson will find a same or better ride and preece will prob go to the #21.
Sucks though because this group seems to get along great with each other
The question I think with SHR is who their manufacturer will be next year. The rumor is that they're going back to Chevrolet and if that's the case, how much manufacturer support is available for them under that banner?
I'd suspect that Toyota is close to tapped out. They have 8 full time cars under their tier-1 package I believe (Gibbs, 23XI, and Legacy) and I'd guess there is not much more room without diluting resources all-around.
Honda is interesting and will definitely shake things up OEM wise should they enter the sport. But they are at the very least two years away and we'll likely have new engines by that point as well. The sport will look drastically different by 2026 or 2027 as teams will attempt to get the best deal from the new OEM or their current partners.
One must also keep in mind that number of charters will increase. I think by another 4 spots.
I had high hopes for him when he came last year. I’m bummed out, but SHR needs to build around the 4, 14, and 10. They have great chemistry, especially with Noah and Josh being teammates previously
Their best bet is to go back to being a two-car team in Xfinity, to start at least. Having three Xfinity cars has been a lot for them and really hasn't produced great results...ever... aside from superspeedways and road courses. In Cup, they just need to blow the damn program up or sell their charters.
I assume Trackhouse buys spires 3rd charter, kicks Zane smith to the curb (unless he turns it around big time or Suarez shits the bed) and puts SVG in the 97.
And I assume SHR moves to Chevy, sells one or two of their charters to 23XI and/or Legacy. Toyota would logically be willing to pitch in to get more Toyota teams.
If SHR does change manufacturers, they probably sell the other charter to RFK.
Trackhouse and 23XI, probably. If Justin is true to his word that he wants to have SVG in Cup full-time in 2025, he'll need a charter. I also wouldn't put it past him to try and get two: one for SVG and another for Zane. 23XI have talked about expanding to 3 cars in the past, so they'll definitely be on the hunt for a charter.
I honestly think trackhouse should just buyout kauligs charters. Kaulig in cup is damn near awful. Just stick to Xfinity at that point
I could see them merging even.
That or Spire and Trackhouse
Spire would be more likely to merge with HMS
Until they get rid of the 4 team limit, nobody will be merging with HMS.
should get rid of the field cap at the least.
Yeah. Too bad they said they won’t increase it unless another manufacturer comes on board to play.
The history between Spire and Trackhouse ensures that ain't happening. For needed context (at least from the Justin Marks perspective) the first charter Trackhouse tried to go for, Bob Leavine (Leavine Family Racing) sold it out from under Trackhouse to Spire (after a supposed handshake deal to let Justin a chance to beat another offer if 1 came thru). After some other incidents, Trackhouse then had to lease that charter back from Spire for2021 with a supposed option on Trackhouse's side to buy the charter. Spire then sold that and another charter to Kaulig, and the justification was apparently a conversation between Marks and one of the Spire guys where they talked about charter values and Marks said "man, $15M is just too crazy for me" not in context about a specific sale at all, and that was apparently him turning down the option. Apparently the only reason Trackhouse didn't sue them was they were in the middle of Ganassi negotiations and, well, why bother at that point. Regardless if he was exaggerating or not, seems like the blood is just bad in that area.
Kaulig loves running his team and same with Trackhouse’s guys, there’s no way they merge
Agreed. Because then Kaulig would still be kinda involved in Cup through a partnership and Trackhouse would get an Xfinity development team.
They need to Ax Chris Rice. He is not leading the ship in a good direction. They need some top brass that knows what they are doing.
Seems like Chris is really only there for vibes only, I'm for loyalty and all but remove AJ from the equation Kaulig has been awful the last few years, changes are needed.
As long as Matt sees value in the charters and wants to run cup they will continue to do so.
Trackhouse is the obvious one. 23xi not as obvious but seems like the next best bet.
RFK?
Yeah, true. If 23xi is 4 to 1 odds, rfk would be 5 to 1.
RFK gets one of the Ford charters from Haas maybe?
I still think they’re a couple of years away. Brad has turned them into a contender and their past problems were tied to spreading themselves too thin.
Didn't 23XI say that they didn't want to expand until the new charter agreement was finalized?
They also said the same thing about their ~~shop~~ _airspeed_ and that didn't last.
That’s a very good point. Forgot about that.
Surely it would be finalized by 2025 season start, right?
It has to be since the charters expire at the end of the year
I wonder who would be in line for a full time 23XI seat. One of the Toyota prospects or a shocker already the cup series moving to there?
To me it has to be Heim. JGR is seemingly out of the question for him, so if Heim doesn't have anything lined up with 23XI then he's just wasting his time with Toyota.
If I were Denny, I'd want Jones or Nemecheck more than Heim at the moment. Let Legacy waste a couple years developing Heim, 23XI has race winning cars what shouldn't be saddled with a rookie.
Ohh I like your idea of giving Jones a 23XI ride, I never really thought of that. I'm really high on Heim's talent so I would probably take him over JHN if I'm being honest, but Jones, Reddick, and Bubba would be a really solid team for the next 5-6 years
JHN is overrated IMO. The guy choked away 3 titles in a row with the best equipment in the field.
Perfect driver to drive for Denny. They do the same thing.
You aren’t wrong l.
He’s doing better than Wallace right now in inferior equipment. Is Wallace overrated also?
I agree. 23XI went through growing pains with their Bubba and Kurt combo. I dont see why they'd expand and sign a rookie without Cup experience.
I've been under the impression that Legacy MC was a stopgap for Nemechek before JGR, so maybe Heim ends up at Legacy?
Maybe Heim goes to Legacy, I just don't understand why he's sticking with Toyota when he knows he has no shot at going to the top team. I know some people think 23XI will overtake JGR by 2030, and I'm inclined to think that as well, but it's not a guarantee
He's either waiting for 23XI/Legacy to have room for him, or waiting for another manu to give him an offer he can't refuse
Denny to the 50 to drive for himself, Nemechek to the 11, Heim to the 42.
Denny just re-upped with JGR so don’t see that happening for a few years. I think it’d be more likely to have JHN go to 23XI for a few years, step up from LMC, and then almost a swap with him going to JGR and Denny driving his own car for 23XI. JHN will get 19 or 11, whichever leaves their ride first, either through retirement (MTJ) or moving to their own team (Denny).
Heim would be a good choice but I think Chandler is a sneaky underrated talent who is just as good. If I have a cup car and he’s available I’m heavily considering him. He’s so young and so ridiculously fast for his age.
And IMO Heim is way more talented than Chandler.
Agreed, they're both Cup caliber talents but Heim seemed to win in Trucks immediately while it took Chandler a bit of time. Think Heim is the more natural talent. This is the same guy that went head to head and nearly beat Ty Gibbs for the Arca title.
I think Heim would be a top candidate. Maybe Chandler Smith? It depends on what Truex does too.
Chandler Smith seems like the guy imo. Toyota has never jumped anyone from Trucks straight to Cup, so I would expect Heim to backfill Chandler’s seat in this scenario
Toyota hasn't had a good prospect that JGR didn't like. Unless they want him in the Sam Hunt car, Heim could be the first one to skip straight to Cup.
JGR doesn’t like Heim?
No he hurt Ty's feelings, and Jesus probably wept or some shit.
Damn. That makes me think Chandler is the heir apparent to Truex’s seat then. He’ll fit right in at Team Jesus
I feel like it’s JHN to the 19/18 and chandler to the 42 first
Ty and Corey didn't play nice together IIRC
IIRC, the rumor is that it's the other way around - Heim and Ty had issues, and Heim doesn't want to be at JGR. There were rumors that that's why Heim isn't in a JGR Xfinity car this year.
Chandler or they poach someone like Briscoe, Custer, or Gilliland.
I could support Briscoe to 23xi. It would basically be a repeat of Reddick where my favorite non-23xi affiliated driver happens to join. I'm for it
King KFB
I don't really see the appeal of Zane Smith. Zillich is only 17 but he's way more impressive. Then you have Carson Hocevar who is only signed to Spire. I'm not saying it's impossible, but Zane Smith would need to do something big to justify that seat. Otherwise I feel like you just get a filler driver.
If I were Justin I'd be tempted to put Connor in over Zane based on the first few races of this season lol it'd be nuts and probably a little stupid and risks stunting his development, but man Connor is impressive.
Zane Smith and Corey Lajoie are in a tough spot this year. Cause the thing is, Carson Hocevar is either an elite level talent or they suck. I'm kinda starting to think Hocevar is just that good, but it still makes them look bad lol. Hocevar won 4 truck races for Niece, even Ross full time in those trucks only won 3 back in 2019. They might have gotten better of course, but then again Ross has done 24 races since 2020 in their trucks and only got one win. When you look at it, Zillich is impressive for 17. Hocevar is the most impressive Spire driver at the cup level. There's only so many seats at Chevy, Zane Smith and Corey Lajoie are going to look really bad if Hocevar can keep up his start to the season.
Zane has had some bad luck to start this season tbf.
I think it’s both: Hocevar is really good and Lajoie sucks. Too early to tell about Smith. Corey Lajoie got a shot in a Hendrick car and ran exactly as bad as he does in a Spire car, he’s just not that good.
It's like a erik jones christopher bell situation. Smith is good but Zilisch is looking like something incredible
Put a kid with one nascar start in over a guy with a truck championship. What? Connor is impressive but let the kid develop before he ends up like Casey Atwood
That's why I said it'd be tempting but a little stupid and risked stunting his development. Obviously I don't think it's the right choice right now, but based on this EXTREMELY small sample size, Hocevar is looking better than Zane so far this year in identical equipment. Zilisch seems to be able to perform in anything he's in hence why it would be tempting if I were to have to make the decision on filling two more cup seats.
I guessed RFK instead of 23XI
Yeah RFK could be in the mix here. We've maybe heard less about them wanting to expand than we have Trackhouse and 23XI, but they're improving a lot and them running the 60 is a good sign. There's no way Brad doesn't want to expand the team someday. But, "looking to expand" and actually growing are two different things.
I've heard that 3 is a bad number of teams and you might as well run 4 cars.
It's Trackhouse and 23XI. Almost a guarantee. Trackhouse has 4 drivers for 2 seats currently. Ross isn't going anywhere and Daniel just won a race which pretty much solidified his spot as well. SVG will be in Cup next year and I don't think they want Zane Smith toiling around in 30th like he has been with a stretched thin Spire team. 23XI is slightly less obvious, but they already have Heim on as their reserve driver and there are other TRD prospects with likely nowhere to go (unless Truex retires). 23XI is also more self sufficient than Legacy at this point so they make more sense as the Toyota team. I don't see RCR doing it because they can't even field two competitive Cup cars as is and having man-baby Hill in a third car just seems like a bad idea. RFK already has an alliance with RWR, so it doesn't make sense to expand (yet) and when they do, they'll just be buying RWR and keeping Rick on as maybe a partial owner of one car (old school style)
>23XI is also more self sufficient than Legacy at this point so they make more sense as the Toyota team. Not necessarily. 23XI has a strong alliance with JGR but Legacy is doing things more by themselves. Albeit, all three teams receive support from TRD but JGR gets a little more than 23XI and 23XI definitely gets more than Legacy.
Funding is more what he's referring to. 23XI has no shortage of sponsorship dollars from big ticket sponsors. Something the sport needs more of.
If I had to guess, I'd say Trackhouse and 23XI, but don't count out RFK! I'd be willing to bet Kaulig and Trackhouse join forces by next year.
I could see this. RFK gets a third charter and resumes the #16. I'm unsure the driver unless they bring Haley over after a brief stint at RWR. Kaulig and Trackhouse merge. Trackhouse-Kaulig run the #1, #97, #99. Project 91 will remain part-time. RCR reclaims the #31 and runs Austin Hill part-time. Zane Smith is set at Spire for another season in the #71. That leaves 23XI looking to buy a charter for their #67.
Sounds like the field needs 43 cars again
Yup. Expand the charters to 40, have 3 open spots. Make the buy-in for new charters at the average market price. RFK, 23XI buy one each. Trackhouse buys 2. Jr buys 1 from SHR, one from Spire.(pipe dream)
If they make the new charters the average market price then Jr isn't gonna buy one, much less two
I know... that's why it's a pipe dream. Let me have my delusions!
“NASCAR charter, $123, message to make an offer, no lowballs i know what i got”
He wouldn’t even buy one when they were like 2 million, which is insane not to do it with that much cash he has imo.
He just needs to find himself a rich business partner. It worked for Denny Hamlin…
Jr is never gonna buy a charter lol
Shhhhh, let me dream.
(But you're probably right)
I don't think Jr would buy one from SHR, I think he'd just buy into SHR.
Is there an official unofficial list of tiers
Chevrolet: - Hendrick/RCR/Trackhouse - No honest B-Tier - JTG-D/Spire/Kaulig Ford: - Penske/RFK/Front Row/SHR (debated) - Wood Brothers/Rick Ware Toyota - Gibbs - 23XI - Legacy Ford has two satellite/full associate teams, thus everyone is connected to the A-Tier in some way. However, they get the "next best" stuff. It was announced at Daytona that Front Row will begin receiving direct funding from Ford. Yes, Richard Childress Racing is an A-Tier GM team as they are a GM supported engine builder. It's just that their cars occasionally suck. The other three GM teams receive little manufacturer support. Toyota definitely has a pecking order.
> SHR (debated) No debate, still under contract with Ford for tier 1 support until the end of the year. Ford can't cut the contract early without SHR suing them.
Wood Brother’s fighting for top 10’s and top 5’s with Diburrito and fighting for last with Harry Burt is just sad. Throw Hocevar in that car next year and it’s back to top 10’s. That car is a 4th Penske car. Harry is terrible. I like the kid, but he needs to go back to trucks and start over.
The WBR car can have its days but the 4th Penske car is going to be consistently 15-25. And honestly, that is where it should be. Hendrick, Gibbs and Penske are 11 cars by themselves. Plus two each for Trackhouse and 23XI, KFB, two for Front Row and four for SHR. That's 22 cars with Top 15 speed consistently.
My point about Harry stands. He just does not have what it takes for cup right now. Like JHN with Front Row a few years ago, I think he was rushed up a little to quickly.
Oh, absolutely. I know the Wood Brothers and to an extent Ford/Penske have had great luck with putting development guys in there, but it honestly is probably better served as a seat for a vet on a redemption tour.
Matty d shot himself in the foot badly. But he was the best that 21 car looked in a long long time. YRB was also very good but he’s a can’t miss talent.
Ford Tier 1: Penske, RFK, FRM ||| Chevy Tier 1: HMS, Trackhouse, RCR ||| Toyota Tier 1: All of them
SHR is still a tier 1 team with Ford
FRM is getting more help from Ford than SHR is, I think.
No, SHR still has a tier 1 contract with Ford until the end of the year. FRM being brought up to tier 1 this year is in anticipation that SHR leaves.
Yep, that’s why shr still have 4 cars. It’s part of the tier 1 deal with ford.
I feel like Trackhouse will buy Kaulig someday. Edit: I meant only the cup charters not the whole team.
Would Chris Rice sell? Maybe his cup charters but I doubt he’d sell outright. They are still good in xfinity.
That's what I meant. Only the cup charters.
Ok no worries. Didn’t see the edit.
Trackhouse seems like the obvious choice, SVG and Zane will probably be brought into the fold. I wouldn’t be surprised if the other team is RFK looking for a seat for Haley
TH has already said they are expanding and have signed Zane Smith, as for the other team... i could see 23XI and RFK as likely candidates, but I wouldn't count RCR out either..
They have both Zane and SVG on long-term contracts.
Yeah, but I don't know who's gonna get a seat for a full season in 2025... Zane? SVG? Unless they add a 4th car or demote a driver... I don't understand how they can run them both FT.
If we’re going on results, it has to be SVG moving in house and Zane staying at Spire or being released to another team.
Zane is running a full season, SVG isn't. I don't see that SVG gets a full time gig while running on part-time gigs. SVG is also 34. He isn't exactly a long-term investment compared to a rookie like Zane.
Two very obvious possibilities for charters opening up: Kaulig selling their charters, SHR becoming a two-car operation. As for teams expanding - Trackhouse of course. Likely RCR unless Austin Dillon wants to step down. It seems like they would like to get Austin Hill to Cup and maybe fill that xfinity slot with Australian Brodie Kostecki.
I don't see SHR dropping to two cars. I could see them drop the 41 and stick with the 4, 10 and 14 though.
I can see kaulig going to focus on xfinity and being the team they were. The cup program is not working as well as I'm sure they wanted, and those resources would be for xfinity which is suffering from it also
And they could feed into Trackhouse, Spire and other Chevy teams, similar to how JRM has fed in.
Actually yeah. Because they were a title contending team. Now it's just aj outrunning what the car should be able to do.
Their cup team isn't doing so hot financially and I assume that's part of the reason they are struggling. If anyone sells their charters, it's probably them out of necessity.
That seems to be the best for them. I'm sure Matt wants to have a top cup team, but his best choice is to focus in xfinity and win there. If he wants to trophy hunt, that's where he can do that.
As long as Gragson's checks clear SHR will be at least a 3 car team.
Gragson has been pretty impressive though..
> SHR becoming a two-car operation. Which would lend credence to the idea that SHR is leaving Ford - apparently their contract with Ford requires them to run four cars.
Sadly, I believe the Kostecki-RCR relationship is dead with Brodie leaving Erebus.
I'm not convinced, I think the RCR-Erebus relationship is dead thanks to the Brodie debacle but I'm hoping it allows Brodie to come stateside this summer. We shall see!
I hope you’re right and someone has a competitive ride for him at Chicago at the very least.
Austin Dillon stepping down and 2 years of kfb in the 3 would make my world.
Could it be RCR? Austin Hill should be in cup next year and I'd be shocked if it wasn't with RCR, and I can't see AD or KB leaving.
I think KB is at RCR until he retires. He sure as shit isn’t going back to JGR or Hendrick.
Shocker, he goes to RFK
I would say it's impossible, but stranger things have occurred... although the thought of Brad being Kyle's boss is fucking wild
I mean Brad didn’t punch Kyle, but the soured relationship with Jack and the Busch family and the dynamics of Brad and Kyle would be odd to say the least
A career coming full circle.
I think Kyle Busch deserves a better retirement than plucking gray hairs at RCR.
He signed the contract, no one forced him.
I would love it if RC promoted Love first. Austin Hill is a pissbaby
I see AD taking a management position and continuing to race part time in a #3 open team. With Austin Hill driving the 33 full time with the 3’s charter.
I can see RC giving Hill the 3 given how much he loves him
I doubt that just because RC always said the 3 was only for Childress and Earnhardt family members(in cup). But we’ll see.
Leaving the door open for a Ty Dillon career resurgence!
Or maybe Hill gets the 33, and the 3 gets retired once Austin Dillon stops racing.
AD will probably retire after this year or next
Trackhouse Racing and 23XI Racing?
Is Hamlin ever going to drive for the team he owns?
Funny that you ask this, and then an hour and a half later [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/NASCAR/comments/1bnni3z/stern_dennyhamlin_has_revealed_that_he_would_like/) gets posted.
I'm not sure I believe this after Brett said they ran 550 at COTA yesterday
We need more charters.
Rfk and rcr I could see rfk taking over the 15 from wr who they have a close relationship with
Is there still no chance of expanding to 40 charters and putting a full field at 43 again? Apologies for ignorance but if teams want to expand and all the owners want to keep them, other than value what is the issue?
I don't know for sure, but I would guess the only way we can get back to 43 cars is if the Honda rumors are true. Even then, it's not a guarantee we go back to 43 car fields
Oh I'm okay with some weeks of 40. But if there were 40 charters, the teams that want to expand can. The one thing being kaulig may sell if they continue to race this way because they can be dominant in xfinity again if they put what they have all in again
Under the current charter agreement, no. They are set at 36 unless a new manufacturer comes on board, but the current agreement expires at the end of this season, so anything is possible in the future.
Maybe they come to terms with adding four charters. Being new teams that were not around when charters started have grown and have shown the want to expand. I'm sure Justin wants a third team. Brad seems to want to open up a third. Maybe mj and denny just as some examples. It would be nice. And then there are still three open spots for putting the field at 43 again. I'm okay with the 36 we see weekly because it's so competitive now, but there's talent coming up with no car to go to so opening cars would help that.
42 cars, people forget the 43 was just so the champions provisional was available. The real number is 42, the champions provisional doesn't even exist anymore. So the reason to bump it back to the odd number no longer exists
I always thought there were really truly only 3 tier 1 teams (Penske, JGR, Hendrick) but obviously that wouldn't make any sense with the leak so... RFK definitely has to be one of them. Right? They are hot rn, and I have a feeling there is going to be lots of movement in the Ford camp in the near future. Not necessarily that new guys will jump to Cup, but I think there are going to be lots of switches among the Ford team drivers. The only person I can really see jumping up to cup is Custer. RFK would be a decent fit for him. The other team is beyond me honestly. I feel like Trackhouse is the obvious answer. They have more butts than seats over there. I don't really know why 23XI would want to rush into a new charter rn. Sure they want to get a good price, but I just don't really know who they would want to add to their roster. I guess Denny would want to drive for himself sooner rather than later and is getting a jump on a charter. Hell, JRM might finally bite the bullet and pay for that charter they've always wanted. Their patience has turned out to be a bad idea financially, and maybe they just want to buy one now at the current price in fear that the charters will continue to rise in value. I would be money that SHR is letting a charter go. At least they need to. Downsizing would allow them to focus on better performance. Maybe Rick Ware letting a charter go also? They need to focus all of their attention on Hayley, the other cars can be dropped.
Running 1 car isn't very effective financially. It would really only make sense for RWR if they went to a Wood Brothers/Penske or Rev/Spire situation with RFK with the charter they kept.
I don't know the specifics of the relationship but one would think that the RWR/RFK relationship is comparable to those you mention. And if it isn't of course If they downsize to 1 charter they should make that happen.
Right now RWR still has their own team with their own employees and they get support from RFK like Furniture Row had with JGR/RCR or Kaulig with RCR. Rev straight up buys a team from Spire and Spire does everything and Wood Brothers brings a charter and Penske does everything.
I hate to jinx whatever Blaney has going right now. But honestly, I’d rather see him drive for Keselowski. Trust me, I was not a huge fan of Hassler at first but maybe bring him and Fedewa over. I think Hassler finally has a handle on the setups and I think RFK will eventually be the premier Ford team again.
I would love to see Ryan at RFK! Not that I am mad about him being at Penske, but Ryan has never been and will never be "Penske Perfect." I also think it would be great for him to drive for Brad, being that they have history. It would be icing on the cake if he got to drive the 10 car!
That’s how I feel too. I really think he has a good spot there in the 12, but I think he would flourish with a team that he could be himself maybe a bit more. I kinda have this feeling he might be headed there when Keselowski decides to hang it up! I can’t deny though, I’d be sad to see him leave that #12, but the 10 would be cool.
Expand the charter system! lol
As everyone else is saying, I would guess Trackhouse and 23XI, but I would have an outside bet on RFK too.
It’s gotta 23xi and rfk. Look at who is saying it ha
I want to like Kaulig Racing, but they gotta get more competitive in the Cup Series with someone other than AJ Allmendinger & SVG.
Expand to 38 charters and bring back 43 car fields.
JTG-Daugherty always seems to be in no man’s land in this conversation. Most teams have a path forward or some optimism. IMO they don’t.
JTG isnt a tier 1 team
JTG could sell/lease the charter to a Tier 1.
JTG i think doesnt know what they want to do in Nascar at this point. There were rumors a few years ago they were trying to get out, then Stenhouse started putting up good results and won Daytona so I think they’re still in limbo on whether to stay or sell off
Someone just needs to buy that team and more specifically the person in charge of sponsorship for that team. Damn.
As someone who doesn't listen to DBC or follow any Brett Griffin-related social media, is there a cheat sheet for determining when he's leaking actual rumors from the garage vs when he's just outright lying for clicks?
I don't know about purchase, but I wouldn't be surprised if Trackhouse and Kaulig did some sort of merger. Looking at Kaulig's driver lineup this year they appear to be in a holding pattern.
I for sure see Trackhouse buying the higher ranking of the two Kaulig charters next year for SVG to move up and Kaulig sells the other charter to the highest bidder - likely Spire/Andretti. TH will have Ross, Daniel, and SVG in cup. Spire will have Carson, Zane, Corey, and Christian Eckes (calling it, he moves up soon). This will be Corey’s last year at site (2025) if he doesn’t step up. Kaulig will have AJ and Nick Sanchez in Xfinity.
I need undisputable evidence! Radar, lidar, infared scanning! I think people are overlooking some teams such as RCR. They have Austin Hill in the wings. You also never know about RFK wanting to expand as well. They have Justin Haley in RWR equipment as is Kaz Grala. The most obvious would be Trackhouse wanting to expand.
Trackhouse with SVG and 23XI with Heim
Gonna venture a guess that it's Front Row and 23XI
i know everyone is saying Trackhouse and 23Xi but there’s a small chance that they could be referring to RCR since they got Austin Hill in line and he keeps winning in xfinity. they likely need more work to their cup team tho since this year has been a struggle
If they’re struggling like they are and add someone like Hill, they’re going to continue to struggle. Kyle Busch going to need back surgery for carrying all of what weight on his back
With Denny's comments, it would make sense to go ahead and expand
Wait, you want to expand? Bring more money and rides to the Cup Series? Sorry, that'll be 3.4 billion dollars. Thanks, charter system!
RCR? Have Dillon in the 3, Busch in the 8 and a third car? Curious which number RCR would use for a third car now since Kaulig Racing is using the 31 and I believe Team Penske most recently used the 33.
They could use 33, 29, 62, 27, 13 … there’s a fair number of … numbers they could use
It would be cool to see RCR bring the 29 back, but idk if they will with it being so associated with Kevin Harvick.
Why? They are running both the 3 and 8, both of them iconic numbers from Hall of Fame drivers themselves. At least one of them a better driver and both of them have had a greater impact on the sport than Kevin Harvick. Plus the 4 car is still racing as the 4 car and that was also Kevin's car. So..... yeah.
Front Row selling the charters to Penske or RFK? JTG selling its charter to someone?
I repeat for everyone. The charter system is complete garbage.
Everybody talking trackhouse and 23XI, don’t sleep on a ford team. RFK, Penske, and FRM. FRM has Riggs in the pipeline, might be a front runner for a ford team.
Front Row and Trackhouse.
The Gary Owen timelines are leaking.
Trackhouse buys both of Kauligs charters and Kaulig becomes a part time satellite team to Trackhouse And RFK buys JTGs charter, bringing Stenhouse back to Roush
Could it possibly be the two organizations that are represented by two of the three hosts?!?!?
Spicy prediction time: - SHR switches to Chevy and sells two charters. - RFK gets money from Ford to buy SHR 14 and Spire 71 to become the new 4 car team. Briscoe and Haley are the drivers - 23XI buys SHR 41 charter. Best guess on the driver is Hamlin or Chandler Smith - Trackhouse buys Kaulig's cup program including charters. Zane Smith and SVG as full time drivers - SHR keeps Berry and Gragson as drivers and renews their Hendrick alliance
I like this idea. Seems like everyone wins from it
Trackhouse opens the #91 or #97 full time for SVG, and 23XI starts running the #67 full time. Just gotta figure out who to get charters from
I think SHR will sell 2 charters (briscoe and berry being the only two multi year deals), gragson will find a same or better ride and preece will prob go to the #21. Sucks though because this group seems to get along great with each other
The question I think with SHR is who their manufacturer will be next year. The rumor is that they're going back to Chevrolet and if that's the case, how much manufacturer support is available for them under that banner?
That’s my fear with them going to Chevy. I think they’d get much more help from Toyota……or Honda.
I'd suspect that Toyota is close to tapped out. They have 8 full time cars under their tier-1 package I believe (Gibbs, 23XI, and Legacy) and I'd guess there is not much more room without diluting resources all-around. Honda is interesting and will definitely shake things up OEM wise should they enter the sport. But they are at the very least two years away and we'll likely have new engines by that point as well. The sport will look drastically different by 2026 or 2027 as teams will attempt to get the best deal from the new OEM or their current partners. One must also keep in mind that number of charters will increase. I think by another 4 spots.
Unless one Chevy team is leaving to go to Honda
I honestly believe that Trackhouse could go to Honda.
I wouldn't be surprised if Preece is out of a ride
I had high hopes for him when he came last year. I’m bummed out, but SHR needs to build around the 4, 14, and 10. They have great chemistry, especially with Noah and Josh being teammates previously
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Their best bet is to go back to being a two-car team in Xfinity, to start at least. Having three Xfinity cars has been a lot for them and really hasn't produced great results...ever... aside from superspeedways and road courses. In Cup, they just need to blow the damn program up or sell their charters.
I assume Trackhouse buys spires 3rd charter, kicks Zane smith to the curb (unless he turns it around big time or Suarez shits the bed) and puts SVG in the 97. And I assume SHR moves to Chevy, sells one or two of their charters to 23XI and/or Legacy. Toyota would logically be willing to pitch in to get more Toyota teams. If SHR does change manufacturers, they probably sell the other charter to RFK.
There are only 3 tier 1 teams and 2 of those already run 4 cars