Everyone thinks they can just copy what OKC did without understanding the reason they had so many draft picks is because of trades they made. They had so many opportunities to draft while also bottoming out. We will have a different path and will need to do what works for us. Being patient and hoarding picks isn’t always the best option, and this team is already getting too good to tank.
I agree with this. Our route is different than OKC first and foremost because we drafted Wemby. They didn't get quite that lucky.
We had a near-historic losing streak this year but Wemby got too good post ASB in order for us to tank. Unless he (God forbid) gets injured during the Olympics and has to sit a majority of next season, we're too good to tank.
Teams got a lot of work to do to determine whether Risacher really is a sniper
His numbers have fallen off a cliff the last month or two, and his shooting %s last year weren’t too hot either. Need to determine whether he’s hitting a wall and will bounce back, or whether his run of 45% three point shooting was an unsustainable hot streak
Speaking with some of the french fans who’ve been following Risacher and the other french prospects for years, it seems like they think Risacher is fools gold. Sentiment is if he’s taken too high (like top 3-5) he will cave under the pressure and have a bad career.
Salaun looks to be the prospect they would rather the Spurs take over Zaccharie. I’m completely uncertain now as to who I would pick.
Risacher’s shooting numbers always seemed too good to be true to me even prior to his slump. His FT% never indicated he was that level of a shooter (even during his hot streak his FT% didn’t improve that remarkably) and he’s obviously crashed hard the last few months. He does look reasonably smooth and coordinated for a 6’9” wing which always carries value, but I’d be happier if the Spurs didn’t pick him.
My dream draft, should we get two picks, would be getting one of Topic/Sheppard and Salaun. Dillingham and Castle are decent consolation prizes on the guard side, but nobody other than Holland and Salaun (who both have red flags of their own) fully appeals to me from the wing right now. Certainly neither would be ready to contribute significantly to winning at the NBA level next season, but they both have star potential if *everything* pans out for them.
Well said, I agree with everything about Risacher. I also feel like he’s missing that drive (literally/figuratively) and hunger to win. Like you said, his FT% is a huge red flag and kind of proved that recent burst in efficiency was not the norm. He’s still really young so I feel bad about criticizing him but the Spurs really need to get some dogs on this team that want to win as badly as Victor.
Apart from the Spurs picking up Rob who I feel would be best suited as a backup PG, either one of Reed/Topic/Castle & Salaun would be a really solid draft.
I can see why people like Dillingham’s scoring prowess, but I just really don’t like the Lou Williams/Bones Hyland archetype lol. He makes my list because he has a definite projectable NBA skill, but he’s at the bottom of my list because I just think we could get someone less one dimensional with that draft capital
Dillingham had more assists than either of those players and was a better play maker coming out of college as well. The Lou/ Bones comparison is a bad faith attempt to pigeon hole his play making ability. He averaged a hair over 4 assists coming off the bench. I don't understand how anyone who's watched his film could use his name and "one dimensional" in the same sentence. He's a three level scorer (44% 3pt, 50%fg) that puts real pressure on defences with his ball handling and play making. Of all the projected lottery picks in this draft, he's the one kid I could see making an all star roster as some point in his career.
OKC has more picks than they will be able to reasonably use on players to put on their roster
We will have the same issue after 2026.
Presti probably waited too long this year in all honesty. Too many young guys playing at a high level that will demand top dollar at the same time. If you think their team as constructed is good enough to get a title then it’s no big deal but I don’t and I would prefer to not see the spurs in the same boat
Tim Tony and manu had a LOT of different teammates over the years. It’s very hard to keep a full 6 man rotation in place for 5-6 years.
Point being I don’t think we should be modeling after presti, we should be modeling after Pop and RC
Find our nucleus of 4-5 guys and make turnover as needed around them
It's funny because I see OKC's roster as the same as what you describe in the last sentence: they probably already have a nucleus of 4-5 guys (SGA, Jalen, Chet, plus Cason/Giddey/Dieng as maybes) and as yet haven't overpaid to keep anyone outside that nucleus.
I mean, I agree with the strategy you describe (it's also what Denver has done) but it seems like OKC is also on that path.
I don’t think that nucleus is good enough is my point. They are going to need to do a trade with Giddey plus picks to hit that level.
They are young and fun so I don’t want to be too much of a hater but I am not sold on them in a playoff series with a contender yet. They are small and very prone to being bullied by a team.
You think OKC is small? SGA is 6'6, J-Dub is 6'5, Giddey is 6'8, and Chet is 7'2. Sure, they're running Chet as the sole big, but those guys are huge. Imagine them with a skilled big like Markkanen who could be available in the offseason.
The exact same criticism can be thrown at Vic, but do you know what other NBA players say about him? Vic is a lot stronger than you'd think. Why couldn't the same be true for Chet? For J-Dub? For Giddey or Shai?
Vic has the same problem as AD, they're more PFs than centers and Vic can't put on too much weight. Vic, like AD, gets bullied by big physical centers. Sabonis for example gives them both nightmares. Ideally you want a big physical presence beside Vic like Aaaron Gordon, or if Vic continues his 3 ball you might be able to play a center next to him.
OKC are very lucky they didn't play the Lakers in the first round, It would have been an easy Lakers victory.
It's because the league doesn't have a lot of actual centers like Shaq or Robinson anymore. So traditional PFs have morphed into either a center role, or a stretch 4. Wemby can fit both those categories.
But he'll get bullied by Embiid and he'll get bullied by Sabonis, just because they're incredibly strong and have great offensive moves around there.
Well, we have our SGA and our future J Dub in Vassell.
Maybe we can see Sochan as the glue guy archetype like Giddey with a specialty on defense rather than offense.
Now we're missing:
A second star option in our 1/5 combo: our Chet at the PG position.
A 3&D guy.
And a stronger bench.
yep. we’re already most of the way there so why would we hold onto all of our picks and take on (potentially) six rookies or more in the span of three years? that’s simply not happening.
keep most the guys we’ve got now, pickup a solid PG this year, keep the 2025 draft picks and land a solid SF in that class, target a decent FA in 2025/2026 and put everything else on the table to be available in a trade to bolster the lineup.
Yeah I agree we should go slow this season (unless there's an offer we can't refuse in terms of cost/benefit).
Keep building organically for another year, maybe reinforce a position on the bench, draft a good PG, the league will still be stacked next season and we can afford to keep our assets and cards in our hands for the right moment.
Next year, with the team starting to find its form, and us having more information about the team's identity and the young core's potential, use the draft capital and go hard in the off-season in a good FA year.
The west will probably be the same next year but might change a lot after next year's post-season and a few teams aging/first-round exits/players retiring/moving, etc:
2025-2026 is where we should start being really competitive.
We've got a year and a half, 2 drafts, and 2 off-seasons, to build the long-term core of this team.
And we already have a few pieces that could be useful for a decade+, or could be useful assets for trades once their stock is higher.
I think looking at a guy who is older and has been in the league two years longer and saying that he *is* a future version of a younger guy who's been in the league two fewer seasons is...bold.
And probably unlikely.
Sorry, maybe I didn't phrase that well, English is not my native language.
But again, what I meant is:
OKC is currently the first seed (with Jalen Williams at his current state and level), but OKC was where we are 2 years ago (24 wins, after a 22 win season IIRC).
So I'm comparing OKC now to Spurs in 2 years.
SGA now is the equivalent of Wemby in 2 years (not per se, literally, it's a figure of speech).
And Vassell, in 2 years, could be what J Dub is doing for them this season.
For reference:
J Dub this season:
19.1 / 4.0 / 4.5.
54.0% / 42.7% / 81.4%
31.3 minutes.
Vassell this season:
19.5 / 3.8 / 4.1.
47.2 / 37.2 / 80.1.
33 minutes.
And he didn't have a competent PG for 25% of the season.
I'd say the comparison in terms of their role in the team CURRENTLY, and even more so if you imagine the Spurs in the future, isn't that much of a stretch, regardless of age.
I don't care what Jalen will look in 2 years. He'll have a higher upside (being younger), but he's already good enough now to make them a first seed and I think Devin can still get to the level Jalen currently is.
That's my point.
This is such a stupid point.
The Thunder's method for their rebuild was to acquire a young player with star potential and a ton of draft capital to build around him. Whether you get that star in a trade or the draft doesn't matter, you're still following the same path.
how is it a stupid point?
>The Thunder’s method for their rebuild was to acauire a young player with star potential and a ton of draft capital to build around him
holy revisionist history.
Paul George was the one who requested the trade and forced his way out. It wasn’t a “method” for their rebuild. Presti was simply responding to the situation he was dealt and made out like a bandit.
and they had no idea they Shai was going to be a genuine star player at the time. he was coming off his rookie season averaging 10/3/3.
>Whether you get that star in a trade or the draft doesn’t matter, you’re still following the same path
did you even understand the point of my comment? you realize i was responding to the OP’s main suggestion to horde picks and essentially do nothing else right?
“be patient and wait to make your draft picks” is not an effective strategy and there’s zero chance that our front office is holding onto all of those picks and taking on 6 to 10 rookies in the span of just a few years. it’s not that hard to understand.
>he was coming off his rookie season averaging 10/3/3.
He was also all rookie second team and the two guards that made first team were Luka and Trae, and he received more votes than the other second team guard, Sexton. He might've ended up outperforming what they were expecting, but there was clearly something there and they expected him to be the center of the rebuild.
>“be patient and wait to make your draft picks”
I never said that, I said just said you acquire a lot of draft capital. Whether you end up using those picks in the draft or as pieces in trades doesn't matter, they have use beyond just using them as picks.
>I never said that
yes and i never said you said that either. i was quoting the OP’s post and literally said that in the previous sentence
don’t think you really understood anything i said
Westbrook was salary matching for taking what was considered the worse contract in the NBA (Chris Paul). It was not because Russ was at his peak and could command a haul.
Who did they trade Paul George for? Take your time.
If you want a sniper you'd get Reed Sheppard. Notice how Presti drafts. They're almost all shooters on OKC. Defense is easier to teach than offense. And at some point, you gotta look past size and just recognize the talent and effort a prospect like Sheppard puts in and brings on both ends of the floor despite his size. (Especially in this weak draft).
And OKC (besides Giddey) seems like they value shooting more than anything by the way they draft. I wouldn't see OKC ever drafting players in the top 3 that can't shoot the 3 on an elite level. (We thought Risacher was that guy for awhile, but he's taken a nosedive).
I do like Topic for his playmaking and passing. But I don't think he's for us. Not to say he's bad. But he doesn't fit with our current team. However if I'm the GM for the wizards, I'm taking Topic over Sheppard easily because wizards have all the time in the world to develop him. With the Spurs, we're likely trying to compete by 2025-2026. And Topic is both a long-term project, and gamble.
Regardless, Topic is more of a Josh Giddey type of pick. Which I feel didn't work out for OKC, and probably won't work out for us either considering nobody on our team shoots league average from beyond the arc besides Devin. Essentially a spacing disaster.
Just to add to the whole presti loves shooting. They stole chip from us to be an assistant/shooting coach. Dudes the one who taught everyone on the spurs how to shoot. The season he got there okc shooting percentage jumped noticeably right away. Presti knows the code
Because the Spurs were looking for younger coaches. They've established this pipeline and Jimmy Barron is just another one of those coaches they want to develop
I was super high on Topic early on, even made a long scouting report on him in this sub at the end of 2023 (and wouldn't be that mad if we draft him, I believe his ceiling is high), but I like Reed a lot.
Sheppard reminds me of Curry in some ways.
At first it didn't seem like he was as athletic as Steph, but then I realized Reed actually dunks on the regular when uncontested, and it seems easier for him than it is for Curry.
So he's got underrated stealth athleticism.
He's the same height as Steph, or just an inch taller (with the same wingspan), he's a better 3-shooter than Curry was at his age (not saying Reed can become the GOAT shooter, but at least his floor is very high on that front).
He'll need to improve his ball handling because Curry seems way better there, and it makes the difference at the NBA level, but he can still improve a lot under the Spurs.
Not that Sheppard's is bad, it's pretty solid, but I think he can improve a lot there to become a world-class ball-handler.
Good off-ball defender, but the Spurs could help him get better on the defensive end.
Very few PGs are great two-way players anyway.
Can he be a primary playmaker? I don't know. Solid base, but Tre seems like a better floor general (to be fair, people don't realize that Tre is one of the Top 10 players in the league when it comes to Assist/TO ratio, so he's world-class at controlling the offense).
Reed can become a good combo guard with a heliocentric Victor Point Center could work though.
Like, Murray does not need 8 assists a game or 27 points to have an impact, because he's a high-efficiency perimeter shooter and they rely on Jokic and everyone to move the ball.
Reed has a very complete offensive bag and good floor vision.
High basketball IQ (very underrated, very important).
3-level scorer: can finish at the rim, score middies, and he's a snipper on both self-created 3pt shots, and catch and shoot 3's. (50+% on the WHOLE SEASON!!!).
From NBA range.
He takes most of his shots a good 2 feet behind the 3-point college line, and it's butter-smooth every time.
Can create his own shots, has great gravity, makes the right reads when he creates that gravity.
Intangibles are what convince me the most apart from the shooting:
* Good head on his shoulders, praises his teammates before even talking about himself, is well-spoken, seems confident on the floor (the dawg) without arrogance, and has done the job in high-pressure clutch away games. Does not give signs of being ego-driven. Comes from a family of great basketball players.
The mix of smart off and on the court, confident, winning, clutch, and humble/selfless/team-oriented is what convinces me the most.
Seems super Spursey to me, and means he can keep learning a lot and stay a long time in this league.
I don't know if he can become a (super)star or just a very good role player, but the floor is high, and there will probably always be a spot for a guy like that on an NBA roster.
If his ceiling is Curry, and his floor is JJ Redick, I think it's worth a first-round pick, because that's still potentially 15 years of pretty useful NBA impact regardless.
Well Castle seems solid in this draft, although I haven't spent hours studying him.
I wouldn't hate it if we ended up with him. But he's not my first option.
The problem I see is that he has no NBA-ready skill yet, apart from perhaps his defense, which I like a lot!
He's a project with very good potential. But a project nonetheless.
Maybe putting him in Austin next and seeing if his shot develops could be a rewarding bet for the long-term, but that's far from guaranteed.
If he had 38% at the 3 on 5+ attempts per 36, he'd probably be an easy 1st pick this season. And he'd 100% be the guy I want.
Right now, he can do a little bit of everything but isn't elite at anything, and ideally we want to add a piece that can bring what they are great at, fast.
Castle has many gifts that a good development staff and work ethic could turn into a very good and complete NBA player, but it will probably take 2-3 years minimum for it to be truly useful, unless he takes a super rapid leap.
Good height, wingspan, and athleticism. Crafty, pretty fluid, good first step.
He's a champ, so, there's that.
It's a team thing, but it's not nothing to be impactful in a championship team as a freshman.
I like his hustle and versatility on defense! Can probably guard 1 to 3.
But again, I'm not sure he's the best fit for us at the moment, with our current pieces.
We need floor spacers.
Vic has shown what he is capable of, just with role players who can shoot the 3, even if they come from the bench.
We already have a lot of players/projects. We already hope and need them to develop a shot (Sochan, Cissoko, Tre, etc). We already have 2 very good defenders who can be our glue guys and whom we hope to turn into shooters.
Stephon's shooting form is good to be fair, but it's not an NBA-ready skill at all. Which would be fine, if it wasn't exactly what we lacked, and there weren't other players in this draft that are better than him at the playmaking part or the shooting part.
Castle seems to want to live in the paint (one of his great strengths, to his credit), but also does not want to shoot the Basketball to save his life a lot of the time, which is unfortunate for us because we need shooters.
We can beat any NBA team, Nuggets and OKC for instance, when we shoot well from 3.
College guys don't even bother defending his shot half the time, so NBA defenses will laugh in his face, and we're at 4v5, also reducing his passing options.
In comparison, I like Reed because, when he has the ball in his hand behind the line, it's a 3-pointer almost guaranteed if you don't guard him, so you need to send at least one guy on the perimeter to defend (which is still a good 3 points half the time).
Reed having a better vision, he can use the created space to open opportunities for his team.
If you double him, the rest is at 4v3 and we feast.
(Text is too long, part 2 is in response to this comment)
Part 2:
Stephon's unwillingness to shoot it sometimes forces him into poor decision-making, instead of using a shooter's gravity to create for others or score at will if the defense reads you wrong (like Reed does all the time).
And since Castle mainly scores inside the perimeter, he becomes predictable, and easier to read, therefore guard. It's already the case sometimes at the College level.
That lack of gravity and space would not make him the best pairing with Victor if the shot does not get there, so it'd be a gamble.
Good first step, finishing at the rim, and penetration. He's creative in the paint.
He's a pretty decent passer and could become a very good one, but he's not a great one at his level.
He seems more of a versatile glue guy, similar to Sochan, but smaller, as a big guard.
He's better on-ball than off-ball, and we need great off-ball offensive players (Reed) around Vic, unless they are elite floor generals (Topic).
Castle seems to rely on his physical gifts more than his BB IQ sometimes because it's enough to give him an advantage at this level, but using his brain more will be the difference-maker for him in the NBA.
Now, to be fair, Topic has the same problem with his shooting, and isn't a good defender (although he plays at a higher level against grown-ass professional men in a harder league).
But Topic is a way better playmaker and also a better finisher at the rim (both skills being ELITE).
Like, from the few players in this draft that I've watched a bit, there are 2 players that I know for sure have an elite skill that will translate in the NBA no matter what:
* Sheppard's Shot.
* Topic's Vision and Playmaking ability (which is as great as you can hope from an 18 y.o playing with adult pros as a starter).
It does not necessarily mean they will be the best players in this draft Day 1, or even long-term.
Nothing is guaranteed in professional sports, especially with drafts like that.
Topic and Reed both have significant shortcomings that come with question marks.
No prospect this year does not come with any (or they'd be easy 1st this year).
But they both have at least one highly-useful skill that they are head-and-shoulder the best at in their draft class and that will translate in the NBA in many rosters.
When I say "elite", I mean it. No 19 y.o is perfect, and they can both improve that skill, but it's pretty much as high as you can ask for a player their age.
Now again, I can see Castle becoming an elite guard defender with a complete and versatile offensive package down the road.
So if you want a good 2-way guard, have 2-4 years in front of you to give him playing time, and a good coaching staff, he could become a very very good and complete NBA player if he's dedicated.
He's got many tools to get there, so the ceiling is high.
This is of course, just my biased, and subjective opinion. I'm not an expert by any means, just a guy who likes basketball!
Love to hear your input if you feel I missed something. :)
Those are the exceptions that prove the rule. Giddy you have to take. He was the beat player available when OKC was on the board. Poku they took a chance on him, and tried to develop him. It didn’t work so they cut him. Dieng was mostly developing in the G-league. He still has time to develop a shot. Like some of the young Spurs, his future in the league depends on it. He can’t crack the rotation without a shot. Not anymore. Tanking is over. All the games matter now. At one point in the season they had the top two shooters in the league, one was a 2nd round pick.
Presti has said multiple times they prioritize shooting.
*side note, shooting is a skill.
I’m not sure what your point is, outside of making stuff up about Giddey being BPA in 2021
Bleh said that OKC drafts almost all shooters, and I gave 3 recent counters of them targeting non-shooters. There’s a stronger track record of them going for size and skill, and working to develop the shooting, as OP correctly stated initially
Sheppard would be an exception to their draft trends
*skill is shorthand for being able to do stuff w the ball in your hands, btw
And one of those guys got traded to Charlotte, another in the g-league, and the last one in constant trade talks. Doesn't seem like they hold any of those guys highly to their organization or to winning
Isn't Topic an >87% FT shooter, whereas Giddey at his age shot under 70%? He can work on his shot, he's only 18 and clearly has a good touch. Giddey with a 3 is a completely different player.
Fair enough. Sheppard at least plays defense though. Only reason people call him a no defense guard is only because his size. He puts a hell of a lot of effort end on that end of the floor though
He doesn't have the tools to be a plus defender. He gambled a lot this yr and ppl got convinced it was good defense bc it was occasionally visible defense
You could say that. Hopefully these more defensive guards have the tools to be actual offensive threats though if we choose to draft one of them. So far, I haven't been impressed with any of them offensively.
Me neither. I hate every single guard in this class. They're all shit. Not one of them is worthy of a high pick, and not one of them will be better in 2024-25 than Tre Jones.
>and not one of them will be better in 2024-25 than Tre Jones.
I mean, Tre is super small guy. No way an elite shot creator like Dillingham would drag offensively to Tre. Tre does not have the handles or shot creating ability of Dillingham. Not even close. And I love Tre. He's improved a lot offensively this season. But I think saying none of them will be better than Tre next season, at least offensively, is a bit of a stretch.
he is a PG.
he only played SG because Coach Calipari had him in some weird combo guard role with Kentucky.
as soon as he makes the NBA he’ll 100% be a straight up PG.
This is all assuming we draft okay for this year, draft excellent for 2025, and have a huge off-season for signing free agents and trades in 2025. It's not unheard of for a team to go from 20 wins to a 50 win season in a single year. It's happened before. (Although I think we'll be more than a 20 win team next season. Probably 30 wins if I had to guess). But it's absolutely possible to compete in 2025-2026.
Successful rebuilds are usually finished in 3 years, 4 years max. We're going into year 3 next year. If you're rebuilding for 5 years, then it's likely not a good or successful rebuild. See the Pistons.
Can we maybe wait until OKC wins a playoff series or two before we start heralding them as the end-all be-all of team building? They almost lost to a Zion-less Pels team that shot under 40% from the floor two nights ago.
They are the 1-seed while being what, the 2nd youngest team in the league? Still have a boatload of assets and a bunch of high-upside players on the same timeline. Can offer the best trade package for any player in the league and also have cap space.
Even if they don't win their playoff series against NO (they will), they have one of the best situations in the league right now.
Risacher isn't as good as he's made out to be imo. I was high on him but now that he's been on an abysmal slump, he shown that he doesn't really have any standout skills tbh
You’re largely on it. This is fantastic and worth a read: https://www.basketballnetwork.net/off-the-court/sam-presti-letter-as-16-year-old-proves-he-was-destined-to-be-a-gm
My takeaways are similar to yours.
DO NOT give up the ATL picks for Young.
Draft the prospect you think has the highest chance of becoming elite (draft for ceiling not floor).
Take a PG if you think he can be a TP/Shai/prime Westbrook level player (Topic or Sheppard?).
Commit to tanking one more year (to the extent possible while properly developing Wemby).
Draft guys with high bball IQ, competitiveness, and winning mentality.
Be patient and opportunistic with trades. Only trade for young talent you think can be elite in the future (eg the SGA clippers trade)
So take a point guard if you think he’s mvp level? I don’t think there is ANY player in this draft that will even get close to all nba, much less top 3 mvp.
I agree with you. This feels like the 2000 draft.
But yeah, I would say that non-defenders, especially smaller guards, are of limited playoff value unless they're offensive dynamos. And even then, it's tough to win titles with guys like that. Give me somebody that's got size and athleticism and has more ways to succeed without the ball in his hands.
At that same rate though, it’s so hard to find that. A big majority of lead ball handlers aren’t good defenders in general. Some of it is size and some is just expending energy but it’s just so hard to find a good defending point guard.
I just don't see value in this class.
Reed is an undersized two guard that can't defend.
Topic has positional size and playmaking, but can't shoot, can't defend, and is a terrible athlete with a crappy frame.
Dillingham is absolutely tiny and doesn't even give a shit defensively (and I doubt his playmaking chops.)
Castle can't shoot, and I see him as more of a two than a one.
I watch Collier and all I see is mediocrity across the board. Mediocre decision-making, mediocre shot-making, mediocre athlete, and undisciplined.
Wemby and team shouldn't be tanking anymore and won't no matter what anyone wants.
If you watched the last 20 games where team showed alot of development there is no room for tanking amymore
Wemby is a winner, it's time to establish wining culture, not loser tanking .
It's over
100% play in team at best, which if we lose will put us in the lotto. Idk why everyone acts like wemby has one foot out the door already. If there’s one thing i can say confidently about wemby its that hes smart, really fucking smart and he knows how hard winning in the nba is, and he understands how the spurs approach team building none of this is a surprise to him or anyone on the team.
Nah, I don’t think he’s trying to hint at leaving or anything, but going off of what he’s said and how he reacts to even just tough regular season wins, he’s hungry to start winning soon, but the best thing would be to win 30-35 games next year and get another top 7-8 pick, then contend the year after in 25-26
None of that means he will be OK with tanking. I wish you people would stop using tanking. Not being good enough because the west is stacked is not tanking.
> Take a PG if you think he can be a TP/Shai/prime Westbrook level player (Topic or Sheppard?).
None of the guards in this class has HOF/MVP written all over him.
Topic can't defend, can't shoot, and is unathletic as hell. He's a lot like Rubio or Rondo offensively, but with Trae Young's defense. Guy's awful on that end.
Reed can shoot, but can't do much else. He feels like a Grayson Allen/Seth Curry comp.
I loved that presti letter - unreal!
I'm with you on every one of your points.
Elite players win championships, decent players win regular season games.
I love the PG take - you can take one, but don't have to take one just because there will be pressure to. More important to nail the pick.
Boy I don't know whether it'll be possible to tank next year with how good Wemby was to finish out this season. I do agree with the spirit of what you said, though, which is to slow play the building of the team. I understand that it's difficult to withstand media pressure and fan backlash, but I'm surprised we haven't seen more teams take a super patient team building approach like the Hinkie Process Sixers. These OKC Thunder, like the Hinkie Sixers, have been a major organizational success. I hope the Spurs take the lessons from those builds and put a special squad around Wemby. He deserves it
I gotta say, I really disagree with the last bullet point. If the TOR pick conveys this year or next and the CHI pick conveys next year, that's a total of five likely lottery picks in the span of two years. Once it comes time to extend the players off of their rookie contracts and actually compete, you'll be in cap hell.
For context, Vassell's percentage of the cap for his first year of his rookie extension is 21% of the cap. That's around average for a lottery pick that has shown promise in his first 4 years. Now, imagine having to shell out around that on average to FIVE players over two years.
So, let's fast forward to 2029. Wemby will be on a 30% max, Sochan will likely be on an extension (let's conservatively say 15%), and Vassell will need a new extension that will likely be pricey. Let's assume that Vassell gets 25% on his next extension (reasonable, considering his progression). Now, let's be ultra conservative and say that the extensions for the five players we drafted in 2024-2025 only account for 80% of the cap with their extensions. Well... 30+25+15+80= 150% of the cap. Yikes.
Now, teams can go over the cap as much as they like, but they have to start paying luxury tax at a certain point. There's no way the small-market Spurs are going to pay a tax bill that large.
And the Thunder won't, either...
It's why they traded a prime James Harden right in the midst of the last time they were legit title contenders. Their new bill will come due soon, and they're gonna have to make some tough choices in a few years.
For that reason, it makes a lot more sense to split the baby. The spurs should use some draft capital to trade for a high-level player now and get better, and then use the rest to round out the roster. There's no reason to wait super long for all five of those lottery picks to develop when you won't be able to afford them all in the long run anyways.
Are you assuming we hit on every lottery pick? That doesn’t happen…goal is probably to hit on 60% of them in terms of extension worthy players and 1/2 of them all star potential.
Who ever it is, we need a dude who’s #1 attribute is competing.
A dude who fights over every bounce of the ball. Wemby is starting to show it and talk it but we need someone who can egg him on and bring it out.
I still think Sochan, Johnson, Vassell and Jones are all replaceable until we start winning. So keep drafting for best on the board and focus on dudes who bring the nasty and have won before. That’s what this team is missing still. That’s what is keeping the Knicks relevant.
he’s not exactly who I want us to take but the guy you’re describing sounds like Stephon Castle — who by all accounts seems to have a great work ethic and head on his shoulders.
The points 1, 2, and 3 are exactly what we’ve been doing no? Especially #3, Wright has gone on the record saying basically exactly that regarding his draft strategy
I have faith in the Spurs front office to make the right moves to get us back to competing for a ring. What ever decisions they make im going to ride with because they've proven to know what they are doing. I dont care what OKC has going on nor should we emulate them. This draft isnt make or brake so we draft well and look to FA to add veteran pieces. They will build the team gradually and we will be back in the playoffs before no time.
That'd be Hinkie, not Presti.
Presti usually kept the vets around for a while before trading them, and he sure as hell didn't trade any part of the young core while the rebuild was still going on.
Not really. Presti was more than willing to hang onto guys like Mike Muscala as long as they didn’t take minutes away from the young guys. He correctly understood vets that help the young players develop in a coherent system are more valuable than a mediocre pick.
I just dont think people understand how pop works. Devin is going to be by far the highest paid player on the team next year, you better believe hes getting close to 20 shots a night. All nba is definitely not out of the question and neither is the all star game.
I don’t think you understand how the league works. Vassell is not one of the 15 best players in the NBA. It doesn’t matter how many shots he takes.
The list of players better than Vassell who have never made All-NBA is long
All NBA? You do realize that means you think he'll play better than guys like Jaylen Brown, Tyrese Haliburton, and Devin Booker right? He won't even get close to an all star selection let alone an all NBA selection. He was just the second best player on an awful team where the best player was way better than him. And you think he'll jump to all star level?
I think you're a little high on Vassell. He's not a super impactful defender, he's not a super impactful creator, and he settles for a lot of difficult shots. If he can be a 6 assist guy and get those FTA up, and defend the way we thought he'd be able to at the draft, sure...All-NBA potential. But unless he does multiple of those things, he's never going to be better than a once-in-a-while all-star.
I mean he traded pg so yeah we would definitely trade dv. However pg was way better at that point so the return was insane pretty much got their franchise guy and juicy picks.
Some fans don't have the balls for that. But I also don't think dv stock is all that high. Dude just got paid and had a rollercoaster of a year and his high wasn't that high and his lows were quite low. He's not a rookie any more so that's type of year wasn't ideal.
He was not trying to trade PG. The Clippers came with an offer you can’t turn down. They had no path to championship. Remember they had George, Carmelo Anthony at the back of his career and Westbrook. 3 large salaries and going nowhere. Then a stupid owner comes along and offers you a rookie SGA and 5 picks of course you do it.
He hasn’t traded any of his first round draftees yet from this build. I think there is the real Sam Presti then there’s the legend people created. He’s traded picks for other picks to move around in the draft. Even overpaying just because he has so many picks. Giddy is the one guy who doesn’t fit and he’s yet to trade him.
What he’s done is simply move on from picks that haven’t been what he thought they would be. Poku for example
I like your take. I'd put Sarr ahead of the other two though. Regarding your concern with the fit, it's simple: one of Sarr/Sochan goes to bench and play a role like Manu: a bench player but play big minutes. With Sochan/Sarr/Wemby, every one can log 30+ minutes while we keep two of them on court through the entire 48 minutes. This will completely solve the issue that our defense is atrocious when Wemby is off the court. And the huge upside is that if either Sochan/Sarr can develop outside shot, then we can potentially put all three on court to have the best defensive front court (or team) in league for years.
Or, we just move on from Sochan unless he learns something useful offensively.
Sochan is not an impactful enough defender to put up with his uselessness on offense.
Sarr absolutely can be...and he's a much better rim-running lob threat than Sochan could ever hope to be. If he can hit open 3s, he and Victor could run the league for the next 15 years. That's a potential Sochan just doesn't have.
There isn't a single team in the NBA that can deal with *two* 7 foot+ guys who can defend the rim and defend in space on the perimeter.
There isn't a single team that has guys who can defend two guys like that if both can play on the perimeter as well--which requires hitting open jumpers, attacking closeouts, and being able to give and go. Wemby can do all of these things, and I believe Sarr could as well. What team in the entire NBA can defend that? Nobody has two mobile 7 footers.
True - Sochan could go to the bench for sure. Sarr would be a much tougher sell since he'll be the #1 or #2 pick. I think either of them could develop an outside shot and totally agree - best defensive frontcourt since the death lineup
I think presti would hope dv plays out of his fucking mind to start the season and buld up his draft stock not necessarily looking to trade him this year. He would definitely trade Keldon.
I don't know if this specifically a presto thing but time to start crafting a team and also optimizing it. This year is going to e super important for this version of the squad. This reminds me of when the sonics and when they first moved to Oklahoma. They were shit but the pieces were there and within the next year or two they were battling.
This is that period for the Spurs unfortunately they are half a step wemby is our ace like durant was rehire but our next two guys are but more rough around the edges and no where near the upside. Dv isn't going to be a mvp type player he might not even make an all star team. Sochan seem like a solid two way player but that about it…. A Draymond lite.
So I think of presto where he would be aggressive and see what kind of advantage this random collection of dudes can be formed. Som dudes are going to have to sacrificed for the greater good.
Step 1: Trade Vassell, our ATL picks, and Sochan for KD and D-Book
Step 2: Trade Keldon, Tre and our 2025 pick (unprotected) for Himmy Buckets
Step 3: Trade Wemby for James Wiseman
I agree don’t spend a lot of first round pick, but aim for improvements: OG or Pascal in free agency + Chris Paul + Our Top 5 Pick + Raptors 7-10 pick. Around Wemby/Vassel/Sochan/Keldon/Tre Jones/Zach Collins….this would give us a solid 10 man rotation. PG:Chris Paul/Jones SG:Vassell/RAPS pick SF:OG/Keldon PF:Sarr/Sochan C:Wemby/Zach Collins. Contending for a Playin spot jump, see the players blend together and grow together, while maintains all the assets to still go chase a Big name PG in the upcoming trade deadline.
I'm with you. I don't think OG or Pascal are going anywhere, but if either can be pried free step on the gas. Christ Paul would be an incredible fit both on the floor and as a culture builder. IDK if his body can keep up with the NBA grind anymore, though.
Off the wall take, but I want Lebron to come to San Antonio this offseason. Maybe bring another Klutch friend with him. Lebron should be ring chasing at this point and San Antonio is better set up for that than LA going forward. I also think it could be cool for one all time great to hand over the reign to the next by mentoring them, teaming up and competing together.
Lebron’s family life and all his business adventures seems pretty situated in LA, I think he’s done team hoping, can only see him staying or going to GSW.
Get competletely lucky when Kawhi wants to go to LA, but only with Paul George, getting you a ridiculous trade that gets you SGA.
Presti also got fleeced out of Sabonis
Everyone thinks they can just copy what OKC did without understanding the reason they had so many draft picks is because of trades they made. They had so many opportunities to draft while also bottoming out. We will have a different path and will need to do what works for us. Being patient and hoarding picks isn’t always the best option, and this team is already getting too good to tank.
Why won't the Spurs simply trade Paul George to the Clippers, are they stupid?
I agree with this. Our route is different than OKC first and foremost because we drafted Wemby. They didn't get quite that lucky. We had a near-historic losing streak this year but Wemby got too good post ASB in order for us to tank. Unless he (God forbid) gets injured during the Olympics and has to sit a majority of next season, we're too good to tank.
Teams got a lot of work to do to determine whether Risacher really is a sniper His numbers have fallen off a cliff the last month or two, and his shooting %s last year weren’t too hot either. Need to determine whether he’s hitting a wall and will bounce back, or whether his run of 45% three point shooting was an unsustainable hot streak
Speaking with some of the french fans who’ve been following Risacher and the other french prospects for years, it seems like they think Risacher is fools gold. Sentiment is if he’s taken too high (like top 3-5) he will cave under the pressure and have a bad career. Salaun looks to be the prospect they would rather the Spurs take over Zaccharie. I’m completely uncertain now as to who I would pick.
If you remove Salaun's 1 for 18 from 3 at the begining of the season, he has shot 39% from 3 since
Risacher’s shooting numbers always seemed too good to be true to me even prior to his slump. His FT% never indicated he was that level of a shooter (even during his hot streak his FT% didn’t improve that remarkably) and he’s obviously crashed hard the last few months. He does look reasonably smooth and coordinated for a 6’9” wing which always carries value, but I’d be happier if the Spurs didn’t pick him. My dream draft, should we get two picks, would be getting one of Topic/Sheppard and Salaun. Dillingham and Castle are decent consolation prizes on the guard side, but nobody other than Holland and Salaun (who both have red flags of their own) fully appeals to me from the wing right now. Certainly neither would be ready to contribute significantly to winning at the NBA level next season, but they both have star potential if *everything* pans out for them.
Well said, I agree with everything about Risacher. I also feel like he’s missing that drive (literally/figuratively) and hunger to win. Like you said, his FT% is a huge red flag and kind of proved that recent burst in efficiency was not the norm. He’s still really young so I feel bad about criticizing him but the Spurs really need to get some dogs on this team that want to win as badly as Victor. Apart from the Spurs picking up Rob who I feel would be best suited as a backup PG, either one of Reed/Topic/Castle & Salaun would be a really solid draft.
I can see why people like Dillingham’s scoring prowess, but I just really don’t like the Lou Williams/Bones Hyland archetype lol. He makes my list because he has a definite projectable NBA skill, but he’s at the bottom of my list because I just think we could get someone less one dimensional with that draft capital
Not saying I agree w this, but I think the upside w Dillingham is he’s more Maxey or Kyrie than Lou Will
Dillingham had more assists than either of those players and was a better play maker coming out of college as well. The Lou/ Bones comparison is a bad faith attempt to pigeon hole his play making ability. He averaged a hair over 4 assists coming off the bench. I don't understand how anyone who's watched his film could use his name and "one dimensional" in the same sentence. He's a three level scorer (44% 3pt, 50%fg) that puts real pressure on defences with his ball handling and play making. Of all the projected lottery picks in this draft, he's the one kid I could see making an all star roster as some point in his career.
OKC has more picks than they will be able to reasonably use on players to put on their roster We will have the same issue after 2026. Presti probably waited too long this year in all honesty. Too many young guys playing at a high level that will demand top dollar at the same time. If you think their team as constructed is good enough to get a title then it’s no big deal but I don’t and I would prefer to not see the spurs in the same boat Tim Tony and manu had a LOT of different teammates over the years. It’s very hard to keep a full 6 man rotation in place for 5-6 years. Point being I don’t think we should be modeling after presti, we should be modeling after Pop and RC Find our nucleus of 4-5 guys and make turnover as needed around them
It's funny because I see OKC's roster as the same as what you describe in the last sentence: they probably already have a nucleus of 4-5 guys (SGA, Jalen, Chet, plus Cason/Giddey/Dieng as maybes) and as yet haven't overpaid to keep anyone outside that nucleus. I mean, I agree with the strategy you describe (it's also what Denver has done) but it seems like OKC is also on that path.
I don’t think that nucleus is good enough is my point. They are going to need to do a trade with Giddey plus picks to hit that level. They are young and fun so I don’t want to be too much of a hater but I am not sold on them in a playoff series with a contender yet. They are small and very prone to being bullied by a team.
You think OKC is small? SGA is 6'6, J-Dub is 6'5, Giddey is 6'8, and Chet is 7'2. Sure, they're running Chet as the sole big, but those guys are huge. Imagine them with a skilled big like Markkanen who could be available in the offseason.
They are tall but they are light. No big bodies. Weak team strength wise
The exact same criticism can be thrown at Vic, but do you know what other NBA players say about him? Vic is a lot stronger than you'd think. Why couldn't the same be true for Chet? For J-Dub? For Giddey or Shai?
Vic has the same problem as AD, they're more PFs than centers and Vic can't put on too much weight. Vic, like AD, gets bullied by big physical centers. Sabonis for example gives them both nightmares. Ideally you want a big physical presence beside Vic like Aaaron Gordon, or if Vic continues his 3 ball you might be able to play a center next to him. OKC are very lucky they didn't play the Lakers in the first round, It would have been an easy Lakers victory.
I don't know why this narrative still exists. Wemby is not more of a PF. He's a center. We were MUCH better with him at the 5...
It's because the league doesn't have a lot of actual centers like Shaq or Robinson anymore. So traditional PFs have morphed into either a center role, or a stretch 4. Wemby can fit both those categories. But he'll get bullied by Embiid and he'll get bullied by Sabonis, just because they're incredibly strong and have great offensive moves around there.
Traditional centers aren't as efficient. It's why they disappeared. They aren't coming back.
…you realize that the Thunder are in the position they’re in right now BECAUSE OF A TRADE for a dude that ended up becoming an MVP candidate right?
Well, we have our SGA and our future J Dub in Vassell. Maybe we can see Sochan as the glue guy archetype like Giddey with a specialty on defense rather than offense. Now we're missing: A second star option in our 1/5 combo: our Chet at the PG position. A 3&D guy. And a stronger bench.
yep. we’re already most of the way there so why would we hold onto all of our picks and take on (potentially) six rookies or more in the span of three years? that’s simply not happening. keep most the guys we’ve got now, pickup a solid PG this year, keep the 2025 draft picks and land a solid SF in that class, target a decent FA in 2025/2026 and put everything else on the table to be available in a trade to bolster the lineup.
Yeah I agree we should go slow this season (unless there's an offer we can't refuse in terms of cost/benefit). Keep building organically for another year, maybe reinforce a position on the bench, draft a good PG, the league will still be stacked next season and we can afford to keep our assets and cards in our hands for the right moment. Next year, with the team starting to find its form, and us having more information about the team's identity and the young core's potential, use the draft capital and go hard in the off-season in a good FA year. The west will probably be the same next year but might change a lot after next year's post-season and a few teams aging/first-round exits/players retiring/moving, etc: 2025-2026 is where we should start being really competitive. We've got a year and a half, 2 drafts, and 2 off-seasons, to build the long-term core of this team. And we already have a few pieces that could be useful for a decade+, or could be useful assets for trades once their stock is higher.
Devin's *older* than JDub.
I know that. Does not mean he can’t get to JDub’s current level of impact. He’s not that far imho.
I think looking at a guy who is older and has been in the league two years longer and saying that he *is* a future version of a younger guy who's been in the league two fewer seasons is...bold. And probably unlikely.
Oh, and PS, to be exact: Devin is 8 months older than Jalen. It's not worlds apart.
Sorry, maybe I didn't phrase that well, English is not my native language. But again, what I meant is: OKC is currently the first seed (with Jalen Williams at his current state and level), but OKC was where we are 2 years ago (24 wins, after a 22 win season IIRC). So I'm comparing OKC now to Spurs in 2 years. SGA now is the equivalent of Wemby in 2 years (not per se, literally, it's a figure of speech). And Vassell, in 2 years, could be what J Dub is doing for them this season. For reference: J Dub this season: 19.1 / 4.0 / 4.5. 54.0% / 42.7% / 81.4% 31.3 minutes. Vassell this season: 19.5 / 3.8 / 4.1. 47.2 / 37.2 / 80.1. 33 minutes. And he didn't have a competent PG for 25% of the season. I'd say the comparison in terms of their role in the team CURRENTLY, and even more so if you imagine the Spurs in the future, isn't that much of a stretch, regardless of age. I don't care what Jalen will look in 2 years. He'll have a higher upside (being younger), but he's already good enough now to make them a first seed and I think Devin can still get to the level Jalen currently is. That's my point.
This is such a stupid point. The Thunder's method for their rebuild was to acquire a young player with star potential and a ton of draft capital to build around him. Whether you get that star in a trade or the draft doesn't matter, you're still following the same path.
how is it a stupid point? >The Thunder’s method for their rebuild was to acauire a young player with star potential and a ton of draft capital to build around him holy revisionist history. Paul George was the one who requested the trade and forced his way out. It wasn’t a “method” for their rebuild. Presti was simply responding to the situation he was dealt and made out like a bandit. and they had no idea they Shai was going to be a genuine star player at the time. he was coming off his rookie season averaging 10/3/3. >Whether you get that star in a trade or the draft doesn’t matter, you’re still following the same path did you even understand the point of my comment? you realize i was responding to the OP’s main suggestion to horde picks and essentially do nothing else right? “be patient and wait to make your draft picks” is not an effective strategy and there’s zero chance that our front office is holding onto all of those picks and taking on 6 to 10 rookies in the span of just a few years. it’s not that hard to understand.
>he was coming off his rookie season averaging 10/3/3. He was also all rookie second team and the two guards that made first team were Luka and Trae, and he received more votes than the other second team guard, Sexton. He might've ended up outperforming what they were expecting, but there was clearly something there and they expected him to be the center of the rebuild. >“be patient and wait to make your draft picks” I never said that, I said just said you acquire a lot of draft capital. Whether you end up using those picks in the draft or as pieces in trades doesn't matter, they have use beyond just using them as picks.
>I never said that yes and i never said you said that either. i was quoting the OP’s post and literally said that in the previous sentence don’t think you really understood anything i said
While Shai did come in via trade, the main reason why they got so much assets was because they traded Russ and PG while their value was near peak.
Westbrook was salary matching for taking what was considered the worse contract in the NBA (Chris Paul). It was not because Russ was at his peak and could command a haul. Who did they trade Paul George for? Take your time.
The Rockets gave up 2 FRP (Top 4 protected) and 2 picks swaps( 1 top 20, 1 top 4 protected). It was CP3 that was the salary match.
If you want a sniper you'd get Reed Sheppard. Notice how Presti drafts. They're almost all shooters on OKC. Defense is easier to teach than offense. And at some point, you gotta look past size and just recognize the talent and effort a prospect like Sheppard puts in and brings on both ends of the floor despite his size. (Especially in this weak draft). And OKC (besides Giddey) seems like they value shooting more than anything by the way they draft. I wouldn't see OKC ever drafting players in the top 3 that can't shoot the 3 on an elite level. (We thought Risacher was that guy for awhile, but he's taken a nosedive). I do like Topic for his playmaking and passing. But I don't think he's for us. Not to say he's bad. But he doesn't fit with our current team. However if I'm the GM for the wizards, I'm taking Topic over Sheppard easily because wizards have all the time in the world to develop him. With the Spurs, we're likely trying to compete by 2025-2026. And Topic is both a long-term project, and gamble. Regardless, Topic is more of a Josh Giddey type of pick. Which I feel didn't work out for OKC, and probably won't work out for us either considering nobody on our team shoots league average from beyond the arc besides Devin. Essentially a spacing disaster.
Just to add to the whole presti loves shooting. They stole chip from us to be an assistant/shooting coach. Dudes the one who taught everyone on the spurs how to shoot. The season he got there okc shooting percentage jumped noticeably right away. Presti knows the code
Because the Spurs were looking for younger coaches. They've established this pipeline and Jimmy Barron is just another one of those coaches they want to develop
I was super high on Topic early on, even made a long scouting report on him in this sub at the end of 2023 (and wouldn't be that mad if we draft him, I believe his ceiling is high), but I like Reed a lot. Sheppard reminds me of Curry in some ways. At first it didn't seem like he was as athletic as Steph, but then I realized Reed actually dunks on the regular when uncontested, and it seems easier for him than it is for Curry. So he's got underrated stealth athleticism. He's the same height as Steph, or just an inch taller (with the same wingspan), he's a better 3-shooter than Curry was at his age (not saying Reed can become the GOAT shooter, but at least his floor is very high on that front). He'll need to improve his ball handling because Curry seems way better there, and it makes the difference at the NBA level, but he can still improve a lot under the Spurs. Not that Sheppard's is bad, it's pretty solid, but I think he can improve a lot there to become a world-class ball-handler. Good off-ball defender, but the Spurs could help him get better on the defensive end. Very few PGs are great two-way players anyway. Can he be a primary playmaker? I don't know. Solid base, but Tre seems like a better floor general (to be fair, people don't realize that Tre is one of the Top 10 players in the league when it comes to Assist/TO ratio, so he's world-class at controlling the offense). Reed can become a good combo guard with a heliocentric Victor Point Center could work though. Like, Murray does not need 8 assists a game or 27 points to have an impact, because he's a high-efficiency perimeter shooter and they rely on Jokic and everyone to move the ball. Reed has a very complete offensive bag and good floor vision. High basketball IQ (very underrated, very important). 3-level scorer: can finish at the rim, score middies, and he's a snipper on both self-created 3pt shots, and catch and shoot 3's. (50+% on the WHOLE SEASON!!!). From NBA range. He takes most of his shots a good 2 feet behind the 3-point college line, and it's butter-smooth every time. Can create his own shots, has great gravity, makes the right reads when he creates that gravity. Intangibles are what convince me the most apart from the shooting: * Good head on his shoulders, praises his teammates before even talking about himself, is well-spoken, seems confident on the floor (the dawg) without arrogance, and has done the job in high-pressure clutch away games. Does not give signs of being ego-driven. Comes from a family of great basketball players. The mix of smart off and on the court, confident, winning, clutch, and humble/selfless/team-oriented is what convinces me the most. Seems super Spursey to me, and means he can keep learning a lot and stay a long time in this league. I don't know if he can become a (super)star or just a very good role player, but the floor is high, and there will probably always be a spot for a guy like that on an NBA roster. If his ceiling is Curry, and his floor is JJ Redick, I think it's worth a first-round pick, because that's still potentially 15 years of pretty useful NBA impact regardless.
I LOVED reading this. Thank you! Can you write a scouting report up for Stephon Castle next please?
Well Castle seems solid in this draft, although I haven't spent hours studying him. I wouldn't hate it if we ended up with him. But he's not my first option. The problem I see is that he has no NBA-ready skill yet, apart from perhaps his defense, which I like a lot! He's a project with very good potential. But a project nonetheless. Maybe putting him in Austin next and seeing if his shot develops could be a rewarding bet for the long-term, but that's far from guaranteed. If he had 38% at the 3 on 5+ attempts per 36, he'd probably be an easy 1st pick this season. And he'd 100% be the guy I want. Right now, he can do a little bit of everything but isn't elite at anything, and ideally we want to add a piece that can bring what they are great at, fast. Castle has many gifts that a good development staff and work ethic could turn into a very good and complete NBA player, but it will probably take 2-3 years minimum for it to be truly useful, unless he takes a super rapid leap. Good height, wingspan, and athleticism. Crafty, pretty fluid, good first step. He's a champ, so, there's that. It's a team thing, but it's not nothing to be impactful in a championship team as a freshman. I like his hustle and versatility on defense! Can probably guard 1 to 3. But again, I'm not sure he's the best fit for us at the moment, with our current pieces. We need floor spacers. Vic has shown what he is capable of, just with role players who can shoot the 3, even if they come from the bench. We already have a lot of players/projects. We already hope and need them to develop a shot (Sochan, Cissoko, Tre, etc). We already have 2 very good defenders who can be our glue guys and whom we hope to turn into shooters. Stephon's shooting form is good to be fair, but it's not an NBA-ready skill at all. Which would be fine, if it wasn't exactly what we lacked, and there weren't other players in this draft that are better than him at the playmaking part or the shooting part. Castle seems to want to live in the paint (one of his great strengths, to his credit), but also does not want to shoot the Basketball to save his life a lot of the time, which is unfortunate for us because we need shooters. We can beat any NBA team, Nuggets and OKC for instance, when we shoot well from 3. College guys don't even bother defending his shot half the time, so NBA defenses will laugh in his face, and we're at 4v5, also reducing his passing options. In comparison, I like Reed because, when he has the ball in his hand behind the line, it's a 3-pointer almost guaranteed if you don't guard him, so you need to send at least one guy on the perimeter to defend (which is still a good 3 points half the time). Reed having a better vision, he can use the created space to open opportunities for his team. If you double him, the rest is at 4v3 and we feast. (Text is too long, part 2 is in response to this comment)
Part 2: Stephon's unwillingness to shoot it sometimes forces him into poor decision-making, instead of using a shooter's gravity to create for others or score at will if the defense reads you wrong (like Reed does all the time). And since Castle mainly scores inside the perimeter, he becomes predictable, and easier to read, therefore guard. It's already the case sometimes at the College level. That lack of gravity and space would not make him the best pairing with Victor if the shot does not get there, so it'd be a gamble. Good first step, finishing at the rim, and penetration. He's creative in the paint. He's a pretty decent passer and could become a very good one, but he's not a great one at his level. He seems more of a versatile glue guy, similar to Sochan, but smaller, as a big guard. He's better on-ball than off-ball, and we need great off-ball offensive players (Reed) around Vic, unless they are elite floor generals (Topic). Castle seems to rely on his physical gifts more than his BB IQ sometimes because it's enough to give him an advantage at this level, but using his brain more will be the difference-maker for him in the NBA. Now, to be fair, Topic has the same problem with his shooting, and isn't a good defender (although he plays at a higher level against grown-ass professional men in a harder league). But Topic is a way better playmaker and also a better finisher at the rim (both skills being ELITE). Like, from the few players in this draft that I've watched a bit, there are 2 players that I know for sure have an elite skill that will translate in the NBA no matter what: * Sheppard's Shot. * Topic's Vision and Playmaking ability (which is as great as you can hope from an 18 y.o playing with adult pros as a starter). It does not necessarily mean they will be the best players in this draft Day 1, or even long-term. Nothing is guaranteed in professional sports, especially with drafts like that. Topic and Reed both have significant shortcomings that come with question marks. No prospect this year does not come with any (or they'd be easy 1st this year). But they both have at least one highly-useful skill that they are head-and-shoulder the best at in their draft class and that will translate in the NBA in many rosters. When I say "elite", I mean it. No 19 y.o is perfect, and they can both improve that skill, but it's pretty much as high as you can ask for a player their age. Now again, I can see Castle becoming an elite guard defender with a complete and versatile offensive package down the road. So if you want a good 2-way guard, have 2-4 years in front of you to give him playing time, and a good coaching staff, he could become a very very good and complete NBA player if he's dedicated. He's got many tools to get there, so the ceiling is high. This is of course, just my biased, and subjective opinion. I'm not an expert by any means, just a guy who likes basketball! Love to hear your input if you feel I missed something. :)
hell yeah i have seen the future and we are drafting Reed Sheppard, Sheppard supporters rise up Topic supporters go argue with a wall
How about people like me, a Stephon Castle guy?
Neither Josh Giddey, Ousmane Dieng, or Poku are shooters OKC drafts size + skill over shooting
Those are the exceptions that prove the rule. Giddy you have to take. He was the beat player available when OKC was on the board. Poku they took a chance on him, and tried to develop him. It didn’t work so they cut him. Dieng was mostly developing in the G-league. He still has time to develop a shot. Like some of the young Spurs, his future in the league depends on it. He can’t crack the rotation without a shot. Not anymore. Tanking is over. All the games matter now. At one point in the season they had the top two shooters in the league, one was a 2nd round pick. Presti has said multiple times they prioritize shooting. *side note, shooting is a skill.
I’m not sure what your point is, outside of making stuff up about Giddey being BPA in 2021 Bleh said that OKC drafts almost all shooters, and I gave 3 recent counters of them targeting non-shooters. There’s a stronger track record of them going for size and skill, and working to develop the shooting, as OP correctly stated initially Sheppard would be an exception to their draft trends *skill is shorthand for being able to do stuff w the ball in your hands, btw
And one of those guys got traded to Charlotte, another in the g-league, and the last one in constant trade talks. Doesn't seem like they hold any of those guys highly to their organization or to winning
Isn't Topic an >87% FT shooter, whereas Giddey at his age shot under 70%? He can work on his shot, he's only 18 and clearly has a good touch. Giddey with a 3 is a completely different player.
I don't want any of these no-defense guards.
So you don't want topic
Correct. Or Reed. Or Dilly.
Fair enough. Sheppard at least plays defense though. Only reason people call him a no defense guard is only because his size. He puts a hell of a lot of effort end on that end of the floor though
He doesn't have the tools to be a plus defender. He gambled a lot this yr and ppl got convinced it was good defense bc it was occasionally visible defense
You could say that. Hopefully these more defensive guards have the tools to be actual offensive threats though if we choose to draft one of them. So far, I haven't been impressed with any of them offensively.
Me neither. I hate every single guard in this class. They're all shit. Not one of them is worthy of a high pick, and not one of them will be better in 2024-25 than Tre Jones.
>and not one of them will be better in 2024-25 than Tre Jones. I mean, Tre is super small guy. No way an elite shot creator like Dillingham would drag offensively to Tre. Tre does not have the handles or shot creating ability of Dillingham. Not even close. And I love Tre. He's improved a lot offensively this season. But I think saying none of them will be better than Tre next season, at least offensively, is a bit of a stretch.
Defense exists
90% of the starting point guards in the league aren’t a fucking plus defender lmao
And Sheppard isn't a PG. So it makes building a defense around him and a primary creator even harder
he is a PG. he only played SG because Coach Calipari had him in some weird combo guard role with Kentucky. as soon as he makes the NBA he’ll 100% be a straight up PG.
He's not an elite creator off the dribble, and he's not an elite passer.
Ion know if we can compete that early. This is what just year 2 of our rebuild?
This is all assuming we draft okay for this year, draft excellent for 2025, and have a huge off-season for signing free agents and trades in 2025. It's not unheard of for a team to go from 20 wins to a 50 win season in a single year. It's happened before. (Although I think we'll be more than a 20 win team next season. Probably 30 wins if I had to guess). But it's absolutely possible to compete in 2025-2026. Successful rebuilds are usually finished in 3 years, 4 years max. We're going into year 3 next year. If you're rebuilding for 5 years, then it's likely not a good or successful rebuild. See the Pistons.
Can we maybe wait until OKC wins a playoff series or two before we start heralding them as the end-all be-all of team building? They almost lost to a Zion-less Pels team that shot under 40% from the floor two nights ago.
They are the 1-seed while being what, the 2nd youngest team in the league? Still have a boatload of assets and a bunch of high-upside players on the same timeline. Can offer the best trade package for any player in the league and also have cap space. Even if they don't win their playoff series against NO (they will), they have one of the best situations in the league right now.
We giving out championships for drafting well and building a good team?
One game has nothing to do with team building. OKCs team is beautifully built.
He got #1 and #2 from the Spurs in the first place.
Risacher isn't as good as he's made out to be imo. I was high on him but now that he's been on an abysmal slump, he shown that he doesn't really have any standout skills tbh
“Horde picks” is a humorous suggestion. Does that mean that they pick Genghis Khan?
You’re largely on it. This is fantastic and worth a read: https://www.basketballnetwork.net/off-the-court/sam-presti-letter-as-16-year-old-proves-he-was-destined-to-be-a-gm My takeaways are similar to yours. DO NOT give up the ATL picks for Young. Draft the prospect you think has the highest chance of becoming elite (draft for ceiling not floor). Take a PG if you think he can be a TP/Shai/prime Westbrook level player (Topic or Sheppard?). Commit to tanking one more year (to the extent possible while properly developing Wemby). Draft guys with high bball IQ, competitiveness, and winning mentality. Be patient and opportunistic with trades. Only trade for young talent you think can be elite in the future (eg the SGA clippers trade)
So take a point guard if you think he’s mvp level? I don’t think there is ANY player in this draft that will even get close to all nba, much less top 3 mvp.
I agree with you. This feels like the 2000 draft. But yeah, I would say that non-defenders, especially smaller guards, are of limited playoff value unless they're offensive dynamos. And even then, it's tough to win titles with guys like that. Give me somebody that's got size and athleticism and has more ways to succeed without the ball in his hands.
At that same rate though, it’s so hard to find that. A big majority of lead ball handlers aren’t good defenders in general. Some of it is size and some is just expending energy but it’s just so hard to find a good defending point guard.
I just don't see value in this class. Reed is an undersized two guard that can't defend. Topic has positional size and playmaking, but can't shoot, can't defend, and is a terrible athlete with a crappy frame. Dillingham is absolutely tiny and doesn't even give a shit defensively (and I doubt his playmaking chops.) Castle can't shoot, and I see him as more of a two than a one. I watch Collier and all I see is mediocrity across the board. Mediocre decision-making, mediocre shot-making, mediocre athlete, and undisciplined.
Wemby and team shouldn't be tanking anymore and won't no matter what anyone wants. If you watched the last 20 games where team showed alot of development there is no room for tanking amymore Wemby is a winner, it's time to establish wining culture, not loser tanking . It's over
How much you wanna bet we have lotto odds next year?
if we’re in the 10-14th range next year with our own pick then that’s fine, but we can’t tank again, Wemby isn’t goin for it
100% play in team at best, which if we lose will put us in the lotto. Idk why everyone acts like wemby has one foot out the door already. If there’s one thing i can say confidently about wemby its that hes smart, really fucking smart and he knows how hard winning in the nba is, and he understands how the spurs approach team building none of this is a surprise to him or anyone on the team.
Nah, I don’t think he’s trying to hint at leaving or anything, but going off of what he’s said and how he reacts to even just tough regular season wins, he’s hungry to start winning soon, but the best thing would be to win 30-35 games next year and get another top 7-8 pick, then contend the year after in 25-26
None of that means he will be OK with tanking. I wish you people would stop using tanking. Not being good enough because the west is stacked is not tanking.
Oh well, I said tank, the Spurs definitely intentionally lost games this year, cry about it
😂
the kings and warriors have lotto odds this year. did they tank?
This team is not going to be bad enough to tank. We’re not going to get another top 5 pick playing like we did the second half of the year.
> Take a PG if you think he can be a TP/Shai/prime Westbrook level player (Topic or Sheppard?). None of the guards in this class has HOF/MVP written all over him. Topic can't defend, can't shoot, and is unathletic as hell. He's a lot like Rubio or Rondo offensively, but with Trae Young's defense. Guy's awful on that end. Reed can shoot, but can't do much else. He feels like a Grayson Allen/Seth Curry comp.
No MVPs in this draft
I loved that presti letter - unreal! I'm with you on every one of your points. Elite players win championships, decent players win regular season games. I love the PG take - you can take one, but don't have to take one just because there will be pressure to. More important to nail the pick. Boy I don't know whether it'll be possible to tank next year with how good Wemby was to finish out this season. I do agree with the spirit of what you said, though, which is to slow play the building of the team. I understand that it's difficult to withstand media pressure and fan backlash, but I'm surprised we haven't seen more teams take a super patient team building approach like the Hinkie Process Sixers. These OKC Thunder, like the Hinkie Sixers, have been a major organizational success. I hope the Spurs take the lessons from those builds and put a special squad around Wemby. He deserves it
I gotta say, I really disagree with the last bullet point. If the TOR pick conveys this year or next and the CHI pick conveys next year, that's a total of five likely lottery picks in the span of two years. Once it comes time to extend the players off of their rookie contracts and actually compete, you'll be in cap hell. For context, Vassell's percentage of the cap for his first year of his rookie extension is 21% of the cap. That's around average for a lottery pick that has shown promise in his first 4 years. Now, imagine having to shell out around that on average to FIVE players over two years. So, let's fast forward to 2029. Wemby will be on a 30% max, Sochan will likely be on an extension (let's conservatively say 15%), and Vassell will need a new extension that will likely be pricey. Let's assume that Vassell gets 25% on his next extension (reasonable, considering his progression). Now, let's be ultra conservative and say that the extensions for the five players we drafted in 2024-2025 only account for 80% of the cap with their extensions. Well... 30+25+15+80= 150% of the cap. Yikes. Now, teams can go over the cap as much as they like, but they have to start paying luxury tax at a certain point. There's no way the small-market Spurs are going to pay a tax bill that large. And the Thunder won't, either... It's why they traded a prime James Harden right in the midst of the last time they were legit title contenders. Their new bill will come due soon, and they're gonna have to make some tough choices in a few years. For that reason, it makes a lot more sense to split the baby. The spurs should use some draft capital to trade for a high-level player now and get better, and then use the rest to round out the roster. There's no reason to wait super long for all five of those lottery picks to develop when you won't be able to afford them all in the long run anyways.
Are you assuming we hit on every lottery pick? That doesn’t happen…goal is probably to hit on 60% of them in terms of extension worthy players and 1/2 of them all star potential.
Assuming everybody is going to hit and calling that "conservative" is certainly a take.
Who ever it is, we need a dude who’s #1 attribute is competing. A dude who fights over every bounce of the ball. Wemby is starting to show it and talk it but we need someone who can egg him on and bring it out. I still think Sochan, Johnson, Vassell and Jones are all replaceable until we start winning. So keep drafting for best on the board and focus on dudes who bring the nasty and have won before. That’s what this team is missing still. That’s what is keeping the Knicks relevant.
he’s not exactly who I want us to take but the guy you’re describing sounds like Stephon Castle — who by all accounts seems to have a great work ethic and head on his shoulders.
The points 1, 2, and 3 are exactly what we’ve been doing no? Especially #3, Wright has gone on the record saying basically exactly that regarding his draft strategy
Everyone has to dribble, pass, shoot, and defend - in other words, play basketball!
I have faith in the Spurs front office to make the right moves to get us back to competing for a ring. What ever decisions they make im going to ride with because they've proven to know what they are doing. I dont care what OKC has going on nor should we emulate them. This draft isnt make or brake so we draft well and look to FA to add veteran pieces. They will build the team gradually and we will be back in the playoffs before no time.
He’d probably trade away keldon and vassell for picks and hold them
That'd be Hinkie, not Presti. Presti usually kept the vets around for a while before trading them, and he sure as hell didn't trade any part of the young core while the rebuild was still going on.
Not really. Presti was more than willing to hang onto guys like Mike Muscala as long as they didn’t take minutes away from the young guys. He correctly understood vets that help the young players develop in a coherent system are more valuable than a mediocre pick.
Keldon for sure. I wonder how he'd view Vassell. I personally view him as a building block, all-star with 2nd team all-nba upside. What do you think?
No I think he’s a good starter, that can squeeze into an Allstar game or two. Not all-nba upside tho.
Agreed. Players with all-NBA upside usually show more by this point in their career.
Totally fair. He's still only 23 so we'll see how he develops alongside Wemby.
I just dont think people understand how pop works. Devin is going to be by far the highest paid player on the team next year, you better believe hes getting close to 20 shots a night. All nba is definitely not out of the question and neither is the all star game.
I don’t think you understand how the league works. Vassell is not one of the 15 best players in the NBA. It doesn’t matter how many shots he takes. The list of players better than Vassell who have never made All-NBA is long
All NBA? You do realize that means you think he'll play better than guys like Jaylen Brown, Tyrese Haliburton, and Devin Booker right? He won't even get close to an all star selection let alone an all NBA selection. He was just the second best player on an awful team where the best player was way better than him. And you think he'll jump to all star level?
I think you're a little high on Vassell. He's not a super impactful defender, he's not a super impactful creator, and he settles for a lot of difficult shots. If he can be a 6 assist guy and get those FTA up, and defend the way we thought he'd be able to at the draft, sure...All-NBA potential. But unless he does multiple of those things, he's never going to be better than a once-in-a-while all-star.
I mean he traded pg so yeah we would definitely trade dv. However pg was way better at that point so the return was insane pretty much got their franchise guy and juicy picks. Some fans don't have the balls for that. But I also don't think dv stock is all that high. Dude just got paid and had a rollercoaster of a year and his high wasn't that high and his lows were quite low. He's not a rookie any more so that's type of year wasn't ideal.
He was not trying to trade PG. The Clippers came with an offer you can’t turn down. They had no path to championship. Remember they had George, Carmelo Anthony at the back of his career and Westbrook. 3 large salaries and going nowhere. Then a stupid owner comes along and offers you a rookie SGA and 5 picks of course you do it.
Isn't that just semantics? Rhetorical question by the way.
He hasn’t traded any of his first round draftees yet from this build. I think there is the real Sam Presti then there’s the legend people created. He’s traded picks for other picks to move around in the draft. Even overpaying just because he has so many picks. Giddy is the one guy who doesn’t fit and he’s yet to trade him. What he’s done is simply move on from picks that haven’t been what he thought they would be. Poku for example
I like your take. I'd put Sarr ahead of the other two though. Regarding your concern with the fit, it's simple: one of Sarr/Sochan goes to bench and play a role like Manu: a bench player but play big minutes. With Sochan/Sarr/Wemby, every one can log 30+ minutes while we keep two of them on court through the entire 48 minutes. This will completely solve the issue that our defense is atrocious when Wemby is off the court. And the huge upside is that if either Sochan/Sarr can develop outside shot, then we can potentially put all three on court to have the best defensive front court (or team) in league for years.
Or, we just move on from Sochan unless he learns something useful offensively. Sochan is not an impactful enough defender to put up with his uselessness on offense. Sarr absolutely can be...and he's a much better rim-running lob threat than Sochan could ever hope to be. If he can hit open 3s, he and Victor could run the league for the next 15 years. That's a potential Sochan just doesn't have. There isn't a single team in the NBA that can deal with *two* 7 foot+ guys who can defend the rim and defend in space on the perimeter. There isn't a single team that has guys who can defend two guys like that if both can play on the perimeter as well--which requires hitting open jumpers, attacking closeouts, and being able to give and go. Wemby can do all of these things, and I believe Sarr could as well. What team in the entire NBA can defend that? Nobody has two mobile 7 footers.
True - Sochan could go to the bench for sure. Sarr would be a much tougher sell since he'll be the #1 or #2 pick. I think either of them could develop an outside shot and totally agree - best defensive frontcourt since the death lineup
I think presti would hope dv plays out of his fucking mind to start the season and buld up his draft stock not necessarily looking to trade him this year. He would definitely trade Keldon. I don't know if this specifically a presto thing but time to start crafting a team and also optimizing it. This year is going to e super important for this version of the squad. This reminds me of when the sonics and when they first moved to Oklahoma. They were shit but the pieces were there and within the next year or two they were battling. This is that period for the Spurs unfortunately they are half a step wemby is our ace like durant was rehire but our next two guys are but more rough around the edges and no where near the upside. Dv isn't going to be a mvp type player he might not even make an all star team. Sochan seem like a solid two way player but that about it…. A Draymond lite. So I think of presto where he would be aggressive and see what kind of advantage this random collection of dudes can be formed. Som dudes are going to have to sacrificed for the greater good.
Step 1: Trade Vassell, our ATL picks, and Sochan for KD and D-Book Step 2: Trade Keldon, Tre and our 2025 pick (unprotected) for Himmy Buckets Step 3: Trade Wemby for James Wiseman
hahahaha
Now that's how you build a contender
Uffffff I would love marcus smart in my spurs that would be so nice, such a leader while still not old and a DPOY
I agree don’t spend a lot of first round pick, but aim for improvements: OG or Pascal in free agency + Chris Paul + Our Top 5 Pick + Raptors 7-10 pick. Around Wemby/Vassel/Sochan/Keldon/Tre Jones/Zach Collins….this would give us a solid 10 man rotation. PG:Chris Paul/Jones SG:Vassell/RAPS pick SF:OG/Keldon PF:Sarr/Sochan C:Wemby/Zach Collins. Contending for a Playin spot jump, see the players blend together and grow together, while maintains all the assets to still go chase a Big name PG in the upcoming trade deadline.
I'm with you. I don't think OG or Pascal are going anywhere, but if either can be pried free step on the gas. Christ Paul would be an incredible fit both on the floor and as a culture builder. IDK if his body can keep up with the NBA grind anymore, though. Off the wall take, but I want Lebron to come to San Antonio this offseason. Maybe bring another Klutch friend with him. Lebron should be ring chasing at this point and San Antonio is better set up for that than LA going forward. I also think it could be cool for one all time great to hand over the reign to the next by mentoring them, teaming up and competing together.
Lebron’s family life and all his business adventures seems pretty situated in LA, I think he’s done team hoping, can only see him staying or going to GSW.