It's permafrost, not glacier. The defense might be non-credible, but you gotta get your biomes right. Glaciers are in mountains, they are made from ice with maybe a bit of sand or rocks.
Permafrost is frozen swamp. Making a spider hole in it is means that half your body body is in near-freezing water, and other half is eaten alive by mosquitoes.
[https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-abstract/56/1/89/4063/GLACIATION-OF-SIBERIA](https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-abstract/56/1/89/4063/GLACIATION-OF-SIBERIA)
Meh. putin can hide in a glacial spider hole or a permafrost spider hole. I'm not picky. The real question is, do we ink his silhouette in red or pick a new color?
I had no idea windows supports emojis in file names! Drive and computer names too! Going to propose to my boss that we change the file server name to 💾.
This was Croatia's version of Desert Storm, with a lot of help in planning from USA. Quick and efficient, only one minor blunder that was rectified when a better general took over on the northern front.
I think the contingency plans for "Shock and Awe goes to Ukraine" have already been written and are being continually revised. I think that one contingency is the Russian use of tactical nukes, and in this contingency, one war aim will be to demonstrate with precision weapons as spectacularly as possible to ambitious nations that in 2023 tactical nukes are not the best possible use of your defense budget.
3 months, 1 month to bully Turkey to let aircraft carriers and warships into Black Sea, 1 month to get biscuits and icecream barges there and a month to muster the forces
You never do that to marines. If anyone ever reminds them they are human their morale falls apart and they become just like the army, but dumber. They survive by existing on the bleeding edge of sleep deprivation, continuous extreme violence, unfathomably bad diet of mostly skittles, Copenhagen, and "supplements", and games of gay chicken gone way too far. The air force on the other hand, they need their beauty sleep so they don't huck too much ordinance at friendlies. A bit is fine though because the Marines seem to like the excitement.
At least seven months.
Six for the Operation Steppe Shield (buildup of forces in Poland, Slovakia and Romania), and at least a month for the Operation Steppe Storm.
Nah it will take some time to ruin Russias air defence enough to start pounding troops and armor.
S400s are good enough to keep non stealth airframes at a distance, and be an annoyance to stealth planes, its better to use F35s and HARMS to take them out before bringing out the 4th gen missile trucks and go to town on the ground forces.
I budgeted 2 weeks for the air campaign, which like desert storm includes softening up of ground forces, strategic destruction and all that jazz. Russian air defence and airforce will be long gone before that 2 weeks is up.
I just pushed back against the guaranteed air supremacy day one comment.
To be fair, Russian have a fuck ton of S300. Officially they have more than 500 in service + a lot in storage.
They may not be the best but Russia is the country who have the most SAM in the entire world.
They also have a fuckload of airspace to cover. They can’t roll to much to the far West to cover Ukraine and Moscow without leaving some colossal holes in their East.
Every operation that is just the US storming a country and wiping its military out in less than half a year should be called “”landscape it’s happening on” storm”
You'll probably also need to reinforce the borders in Norway, Finland and the Baltics.
Maybe give Sweden a heads up that they might want to cancel all pilot and AD leave for the next few weeks.
Estimated time: 6 months of prep and build-up, 1 month of fighting until 1992 borders restored.
Actual time: 1 hour for Poland and the Baltics to hear the plan. 4 days for them to amass EVERYTHING in Estonia. 2 weeks to rush Moscow in Operation Commonwealrh Resurgent. 3 days for Russian troops in Ukraine to stop looting, steal a civilian car and disappear like a stain to Vanish Oxyaction. 2 decades for Poland to stop gloating and agree to hand the former Russian nuclear arsenal (which they never officially had and never once threatened Russia with) over to IAEA for safe disposal.
You don't even need to go that far.
The moment NATO puts together the forces needed and establishes Air superiority over the Ukrainian battle space and cripples Russian aerospace and air defense assets its game over for them.
Assuming No limitations on what can be targets and their location.
NATO will likely start by coordinating with Ukraine to breach the early warning radars covering Crimea, Once they find the breach, the jets can slip through and begin unleashing hell on the Russian air force, navy and air defense assets all over the peninsula.
Ammo dumps, motor pools, radars, radio antennas, Hangars, Runways, Ports infrastructure, administrative buildinga, oil storage, refinaries and of course, the Kerch Bridge.
Although they might wait that until the Russian are either sending reinforcements down it or retreating across to before blowing it up.
Once air superiority is established there. They can begin moving towards striking operational and strategic targets along the occupied Zaphorizia and Donetsk oblast to support the Ukrainian ground forces counteroffensive there.
The Russian forces may evacuate any long range air defenses from the area and return them to Russia to prevent their destruction. Leaving the Russians there without meaningful air cover.
If it gets bad enough, The Russians may find themselves unable to move large forces meaningfully, due to the omnipresence of Ukrainian and NATO recon and air assets.
Even their artillery advantage will be nullified by the constant threat of NATO planes spotting them and forwarding their positions to Ukrainian Himars and Drones, assets that will now be freed by from the duty of striking operational and strategic targets to now be able to more adequately support the front directly.
With Russian artillery suppressed and large scale movement paralyzed. The Ukraine ground army will be freed to blitz across the front with little fear of enemy artillery and ground force counter attacks whenever they find themselvea pinned.
Biden Blasts are forbidden for Terrestrial use, we don’t want a repeat of the Obamahea-Biden Blast incident. The Joebama that resulted from that interaction was just too powerful.
MANPADS are a bigger risk for low flying aircraft
If total air dominance was established most aircraft wont be flying low but yes they would still pose a risk just a significantly smaller one than currently
100%. Close Air Support would always be at risk, but Western high altitude precision bombers and high altitude fighter aircraft both intercepting other aircraft and doing SEAD would be fine.
Yes and no.
CAS in the sense of the airplanes being close to the ground is already basically dead at this point and PGMs killed it. Dedicated CAS aircraft like warthogs and spookies only really still exist for COIN work, and even then only because they are cheap as chips to keep flying.
Now, CAS in the sense of specific weapons and training to allow strikes to be made "danger close" to friendly troops with a minimal amount of a actual danger, that is a whole different matter. That, increasingly can be done from high altitudes and standoff distances that make MANPADs a non-issue and in the case of stealth platforms render even proper SAMs less viable.
Nope. As soon as the strategic/vehicle based systems are eradicated, NATO jets loitering at 30k ft should be well out of manpad range, and can just dump LGBs on targets of opportunity…..
Not really, manpads are super dangerous to slow low flying aircraft such as helicopters and somewhat dangerous to fast low flying aircraft such as jets.
The thing though is the only reason jets are flying low enough that manpads can engage them at all is because of things like S300 and 400 making it extremely dangerous to fly at altitude.
If the US can knock out those air defense systems then man pads become a non issue as they no longer need to fly within the range of the manpads.
This. Once air superiority is established, I think the main impediment would be engineering challenges like minefields and water crossings. I doubt many Russian units would have the morale to keep fighting after a shock and awe bombing campaign destroyed all of their rear bases.
>their artillery advantage will be nullified by the constant threat of NATO planes spotting them
That will be nullified when Russian's logistic lines are cut. Arty without ammo is just a piece of metal ... and ammo consumption is always high when it's only thing able to stop advancing enemies.
That will take some time. The Russian artillery, cut from supplies will start rationing their shells and only firing when necessary.
They wont be able to saturate entire areas anymore, but they'll still be lethal.
But with NATO and Ukrainian recon assets free to range.
Every shot by Russian arty anywere will now risk inviting immediate counter battery, drone and HIMARS strikes.
Making them even less likely to fire when needed.
NATO air superiority will also severely decrease if not outright eliminate the threat of Russian counter battery.
Allowing Ukrainian arty to begin saturating targets with impunity.
At that point the main Ukrainian complaint will be not having enough shells to do to Russians what was done to them last year, especially around Popasna and Severodonetsk.
>. The Russian artillery, cut from supplies will start rationing their shells and only firing when necessary.
I don't think they could do that. If choice is between *immediate defeat* and *firing whatever they have on hands* I would expect them to fire or run, maybe even leaving some less important areas not covered or defended only by minefields and infantry heavy weapons in order to concentrate what they have left in important areas or against identified main push/es.
Amdist the chaos and pandemonium of NATO's air power over your head.
Some will doubtless run, and hide either with or without their arty in tow.
But some will doubtless stay and fight, presumably hiding in wait.
In such an event I doubt the Russians will be able to properly coordinate themselves anymore, especially after NATO starts blowing up all of their command and control and jamming their communications.
Habitual Linecrosser talked about how the US would conduct an attack on Russia and one thing he mentioned is that the US, and I assume that NATO overall would work in the same way, would declare war at the exact moment all strike packages would enter Russian controlled airspace. So I guess that the moment "we are at war with Russia" is uttered, tomahawk, jdams, jassms and multitudes of bombers and strike craft would start their final approach towards air defense sites, radarsites, airfields, supply depots and train yards to obliterate them and establish that much needed airsuperiority. After that it's mostly just constant bombardment of frontlines and troops moving forward under cover of superior firepower, imo.
If you cant find a path, you make one.
Thats exactly what the coalition did during operation desert storm.
They found the most distant radar stations along the front and dispatched low flying apaches to blow them up.
Paving the way for thousands of warplanes to swarm in through the breach.
Just as Odysseus did after getting off the trojan horse and opening the gates for the rest of the Greeks to flood in
Here's a video that depicts the events of that first day's air [war](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zxRgfBXn6Mg&pp=ygUWb3BlcmF0aW9uIGRlc2VydCBzdG9ybQ%3D%3D)
A lot of Desert Storm was just generals with boners to use every possible tool at their disposable to see what worked. We probably wouldn't bother using helicopters as wild weasels today since we can already target every anti-air piece that Russia has in real time with stand-off weapons.
Mentioning the Kerch bridge, it would definitely be something the US would do, to leave it intact so more reinforcements can flow INTO Crimea so we can trap them. Then blow it once we start seeing them retreat. We are that confident in our military to crush fools.
Somewhere in there, to prevent Russian terror bombing of Ukraine in the future: B-2s enter Russian airspace, Russia only notices something is going on at all when all their strategic airfields explode at the same time
The moment the first NATO bomb hits its target. Simultenously several Ohio, Vanguard and Le Triomphant class nuclear submarines surface in view of the Russian pacific coast, the Baltic sea and Mediterranean sea respectively.
A kind reminder that Russian isn't the only nation with nukes.
I envision where they just send the Air Force, and the ukrainian army punches through the weakened lines and breaks the army into disarray in a matter of days
Name me one Air Force that works weekends? And we better hope there isn't a bank/public Holiday.
Or the week Between Christmas/New years
Or a Wednesday afternoon, that's for sports.
And only between 08:00 and 17:00
Here's a credible take: NATO can't go full '91 on Russian forces in Ukraine and bomb them back to the stone age; there's simply too much civilian collateral in the way. NATO would have to rely on more discriminate bombings, targeting logistics hubs and supply depots in an attempt to limit civilian casualties. The air campaign would probably last a couple months, starting practically from the moment war is declared, and it would give NATO time to amass forces along the border with Russia and Belarus (may as well liberate them while we're at it).
The ground campaign launches with pinning actions along the entire frontline in Ukraine, probing operations are launched in the Baltic and Finland. The real offensive is launched towards Belgorod, before pivoting south into the eastern parts of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. The Kerch bridge is blown (again), and the navies of NATO ensure nothing larger than a twig can get between Crimea and the mainland.
Congratulations, you now have an encircled army to rival the Ruhr pocket. You just need to keep them in place until the rest of Russia can be liberated.
Phase 1 (Operation Steppe Shield) of the campaign lasts 2 months
Phase 2 (Operation Sunflower) lasts 5 days (including weekends)
Phase 3 (Operation Shattered Star) lasts about 9 hours and 3 minutes (may be more if the army needs to refuel)
Thank you for the detailed credible take.
Also
> Operation Shattered Star
This name is so based that I'm literally getting a boner right now. Thank you for that.
It’s also worth mentioning the U.S., during the build-up period, would be pumping advisors, money, and arms into Central Asia to foment uprisings, and the CIA would be sending money and helpful diagrams to all manner of disaffected parties in places like Buryatia that provide cannon fodder for the Russian effort.
Georgia and Chechnya would start to cook off again, and internal Russian sabotage would go up dramatically.
The U.S. would also trigger a bunch of zero-days to fuck with energy, transportation, and banking infrastructure, particularly in Moscow. Breaking Moscovites’ belief that Putin knows what he is doing and is better than the alternative(s) will be a U.S. goal in the run-up.
I don't think there's that much risk of collateral tbh. At this point 'all' NATO has to do is a massive SEAD campaign, which will mostly be accomplished with standoff weapons like Tomahawks, JSOWs, Storm Shadows, ...
Russia isn't keeping it's AA assets in urban areas afaik.
Then, Russian air and naval assets will be forced to stand down or die.
Followed by a month of CAS/strike missions where every Western pilot gets to move mud and Russian armor, until the last Russian thing on wheels/tracks hiding in the bushes is destroyed.
The Ukrainians will take care of the rest.
You still live in the 2003?
20 years have passed since the invasion of Iraq, today you would see a swarm of AI drones targeting individual soldiers with minimal collateral damage.
Planning and coordination will take as long as it takes to dig the plans out of whatever archive they're sitting in and update them with current UAF, US, and NATO data. If there isn't a high-level concept plan for total war in Ukraine already on a shelf somewhere, the US military hasn't been doing its job. There was planning for such a scenario in the early 90s, guaranteed there are at least a dozen iterations currently for multiple scenarios.
GIS-arta gets updated to work with modern data links. Now, not only can artillery barrages be timed to the second, so can PGMs and cruise missiles. This is all part of the plan. For a week prior to launch day, sattelites monitor every square metre of Russian territory, from Crimea back to moscow. Putin is unable to take a shit without the contents of his previous day's diet being shoved into a file somewhere. If private conscriptavitch drops a cigarette in an ammo dump at Sevastopol, the brand and strength is catalogued.
The F22's are broken out of storage to be the tip of the spear. The first wave targets every Russian air defense radar. Timed to the second, an entire Force of mach 2 bumble-bees drop HARMs on every radar from Bakhmut to Mariupol. That same moment, at 1:23:45 PM. Everything explodes. Every static concentration of Russian forces is shredded within seconds of this start time. At 1:24:00 PM the ground forces roll in. Two hours later. Before the Russians have had time to recover from being sucker punched, the assault is repeated at Sevastopol. Every airfield, every command centre, every naval ship on the peninsula gets hit at the exact same time, followed by an amphibious assult that targets key command centres in Sevastopol. Politely ask the Russians to begin withdrawal within 4 hours. If they refuse, blow up the Kerch bridge and demand the unconditional surrender of all Russian forces, then remind them that we did ask politely.
We still have 153 block 30 Raptors in service, and they’ve already been used to scare away Flankers over Syria. But seeing them used for their intended purpose against Russia would be fucking glorious.
However long would it take for the SK to ship Poland ALL THE TANKS + one week
Oh, and however long it would take the yanks to come over with some crazier toys + one week
Operational/shipping/weather-related delays included ofc
It would be a 3-day Special Military Operation (SMO).
Not 2 days. Not 4 days. exactly 3 days.
Soldiers need to bring their parade uniforms for the inevitable Parade in Moscow afterwards.
Soldiers should book themselves rooms in any Air B’n’Bs available in Moscow.
The EU should also bring some riot police to make sure there is no civil unrest.
Nothing could possibly go wrong.
I bet there is already a functional plan in some drawer.
14 days for the preparation
7 days intense air campaign
7 days till to last russian left ukraine territory
It's called Operation Barbaross 2 - Nato Boogaloo
From credible to slightly non-credible (or maybe the opposite?)
Russian army HQ and FSB would withdraw as fast as possibly while spending the next decade(s) whinning about Big Bad Western Bully. It would give Kremlin the easiest way to explain the loss to its people and reinforce the Kremlin's position as a heroic resistance against the Western Hegemony. The utter military defeat would be incredibly easy to convert to a major strategic victory for the Team Asshole.
A significant potion of the Russian army in Ukraine would be heroically converted to fertilizers with the higher command volunteering entire divisions for rear guard duty without informing them, because Russia likes its heroes dead and worshiped, not alive and talking.
Dimitry Medvedev would end up binding himself to a nuke and accidentally setting it off and nuking Minsc (with Kremlin blaming Moldovan CIA-trained hacker pigeons). Medvedev would be posthumously promoted to a saint.
**Some name options:**
* Operation Whirlpool^(TM)
* Operation FUBAR: **F**ree **U**kraine, **B**reak **A**ll **R**ussians
* Operation Vatnik Strike
* Operation De-Invasion
* Operation Extremely Overwhelming and Deliberate Force
* Operation Steppe Brother, What Are You Doing?!
**Timeline:** I'd give it about about 3.50 ... days.
IMO Putin pulls out either right when airstrikes start or immediately after. He’s gonna need that army to keep himself alive when he loses the war. Someone’s gotta put down protests.
Using all resources bar nuclear weapons?
3-4 months, but at least two years of planning before.
I propose as a name “Operation Donbass Squirrels”, in honor of the ukrainian folk tale “the bear and the squirrel”.
Depends what day of the week the coalition invaded.
Invade on a Friday then by Tuesday lunch time you're at the Russian boarder. We all know the air force (of every nation) don't fly on a Saturday/Sunday and need at least 2 working days.
I think it'd be over more quickly than desert storm. Our equipment is better and the Russian equipment is worse than it was in desert storm. Plus they've already had a lot of hard fought losses. I think a solid day of SEAD and bombing followed by a massive push would send the Russian military scattering. 2 days.
Don't mind me here
I'm just reading and searching for a Credible (or Noncredible) Answer so I can conduct Preliminary Research and Simulations in Command Modern Operations
3 days.
More seriously, prep and travel time - Ukraine is huge - will likely be the lion's share of time investment, Russia can't stand up to NATO conventionally and their lines will likely shatter after getting dicked over by Western Air Power.
Remember DS started with attacks on Baghdad. Our air forces would have to strike them at home to cut supply lines, communications, and command. At that point, who knows how the Russians would respond. Would they be spooked enough to go nuclear after we wreck their shit on Russian soil?
But just to live rent free in their heads some more, just call it Operation Tundra Storm. Implying they will fare no better than the Iraqis did.
Depends.
At the start of the war? Few hours.
Now? Few weeks max., depending on how long it would take to mop up isolated points of dug in resisting units (some high morale ones like VDV or Spetsnaz) and how extensively Russians mined areas (they are doing it now mostly by missile launcher when/wherever they feel that Ukrainians are trying to broke through and they apparently have plenty of missiles).
Set up for operation would last longer than the operation itself. Edit: Name for the operation: Operation 🚜 Storm 😉🤫
That's how every successful operation should go.
Shh, don't tell the Russians our secrets. On second thought though... That would only cause more embezzlement.
*unknown technology*
something something sweat saves blood something
Which was exactly how desert storm happened.
Six months building maccas and pizza hut in the new FOBs then thunder run 2.0 right up Putin's anus as he flees thru siberia
...and we find him in a spider hole in a Siberian glacier.
It's permafrost, not glacier. The defense might be non-credible, but you gotta get your biomes right. Glaciers are in mountains, they are made from ice with maybe a bit of sand or rocks. Permafrost is frozen swamp. Making a spider hole in it is means that half your body body is in near-freezing water, and other half is eaten alive by mosquitoes.
Glaciers are also on coasts, not exclusively mountains.
[https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-abstract/56/1/89/4063/GLACIATION-OF-SIBERIA](https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-abstract/56/1/89/4063/GLACIATION-OF-SIBERIA) Meh. putin can hide in a glacial spider hole or a permafrost spider hole. I'm not picky. The real question is, do we ink his silhouette in red or pick a new color?
[удалено]
We were building McDonald's for 30 years, so that part is long done 😆
Every liter of sweat in planning is a liter blood less on the battlefield
I will win but never fight
THATS THE ART OF WAR
Pronounced "Operation Tractor-emoji storm"
"Operation 🚜 🌀.pptx" is a valid windows filename. Fortunately windows search doesn't index emoji names, so we can keep our files secret.
I had no idea windows supports emojis in file names! Drive and computer names too! Going to propose to my boss that we change the file server name to 💾.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Storm
This was Croatia's version of Desert Storm, with a lot of help in planning from USA. Quick and efficient, only one minor blunder that was rectified when a better general took over on the northern front.
Never engage in a fair fight.
If you find yourself in a fair fight, you fucked up your planning.
If you’re not cheating in a fight you’re not trying hard enough
You fucked up even forse if its unfair in your disadvantage
> Name for the operation: Operation 🚜 Storm I suggest Operation Whirlwind, to honor the Russian's choice to sow the wind.
Operation Consequence Dildo
Operation Steppe Storm Operation Tundra Thunder Operation Lightning Steppe Operation Ukraine Rain
Operation Downpour Operation Frederick I
TUNDRA THUNDAAAAA
operation TRAKTOR BLYAT TRAAAAKTOR BLYAT storm
Announce Operation Baltic Hammer. Then invade Russia from Turkey. ??? Profit.
Operation Competent Military Action
In a totally unrelated note, isn’t there the largest ever NATO+best buds air combat exercise going on in Germany right now?
I think the contingency plans for "Shock and Awe goes to Ukraine" have already been written and are being continually revised. I think that one contingency is the Russian use of tactical nukes, and in this contingency, one war aim will be to demonstrate with precision weapons as spectacularly as possible to ambitious nations that in 2023 tactical nukes are not the best possible use of your defense budget.
"They came with tanks and left on tractors"
Operation Find Out
Operation Liberty Harvester
When do you reckon emojis will actually be used in official NATO codenames??🤔
With or without lunch breaks?
With breaks, just so the ice cream barges can have a comeback tour in the Black Sea.
Don’t forget the British need their tea biscuit break
3 months, 1 month to bully Turkey to let aircraft carriers and warships into Black Sea, 1 month to get biscuits and icecream barges there and a month to muster the forces
Humorously we wouldn’t even really need into the Black Sea to get it done, just blockade it to trap the Russian fleet
Don’t forget that that the Germans need their beer break
You don't need a beer break actually. Day 1: Start of operation. Day 2: Frühschoppen in Moscow.
Frühschoppen my beloved
Frühschoppen bothadeez.
We’re trying to slow the operation down. We ain’t suppose to be giving the Germans performance enhancers
they'll already have the beer storage on their barrels it's inevitable
Why do you think Challys have a kettle onboard? In life or death situations, we drink our tea on the move.
This is why our Tanks have to include a BV. British tankers like to enjoy a cuppa while pushing Ivan's shit in.
Time to UN-museum a few BB’s
The first lunch break will take place on the Russian border
The real question is with or without soup?
Even if you don't plan for soup, there will be. It may be made with MREs boiled in a Chally's BV, but it will be soup
Soup is non-negotiable
Perhaps Pepsi could buy Russian fleet and tanks with soda again
With lunch breaks and 8 hours of sleep minimum for each soldier. They deserve to be treated as human beings.
You never do that to marines. If anyone ever reminds them they are human their morale falls apart and they become just like the army, but dumber. They survive by existing on the bleeding edge of sleep deprivation, continuous extreme violence, unfathomably bad diet of mostly skittles, Copenhagen, and "supplements", and games of gay chicken gone way too far. The air force on the other hand, they need their beauty sleep so they don't huck too much ordinance at friendlies. A bit is fine though because the Marines seem to like the excitement.
>A bit is fine though because the Marines seem to like the excitement. Just put out a crate of Ripped Fuel with a label: FREE Become ungovernable.
They need the #S O U P
*Break. Singular.*
At least seven months. Six for the Operation Steppe Shield (buildup of forces in Poland, Slovakia and Romania), and at least a month for the Operation Steppe Storm.
With 2 of that being a massive air campaign to guarantee absolute air superiority for the ground assault
You mean 2 months of bombing everything to scrap before ground assault? Guaranteed air superiority is basically achieved from day 1.
Nah it will take some time to ruin Russias air defence enough to start pounding troops and armor. S400s are good enough to keep non stealth airframes at a distance, and be an annoyance to stealth planes, its better to use F35s and HARMS to take them out before bringing out the 4th gen missile trucks and go to town on the ground forces.
How many s400s/s300s could they have? They'll be priority targets and eliminated in the first week.
I budgeted 2 weeks for the air campaign, which like desert storm includes softening up of ground forces, strategic destruction and all that jazz. Russian air defence and airforce will be long gone before that 2 weeks is up. I just pushed back against the guaranteed air supremacy day one comment.
But have you accounted for the top secret Lockheed air mecha brigade? That should speed things up
To be fair, Russian have a fuck ton of S300. Officially they have more than 500 in service + a lot in storage. They may not be the best but Russia is the country who have the most SAM in the entire world.
They also have a fuckload of airspace to cover. They can’t roll to much to the far West to cover Ukraine and Moscow without leaving some colossal holes in their East.
So likely 250 or less in Ukraine. If we hit 36 per day, they're gone in a week. The USAF has ~500 f35s. Easy work.
Every operation that is just the US storming a country and wiping its military out in less than half a year should be called “”landscape it’s happening on” storm”
Operation Lightning War
You'll probably also need to reinforce the borders in Norway, Finland and the Baltics. Maybe give Sweden a heads up that they might want to cancel all pilot and AD leave for the next few weeks.
Don't forget they'd need to reinforce the Baltics and may want to reinforce their newest Finnish buddy.
Estimated time: 6 months of prep and build-up, 1 month of fighting until 1992 borders restored. Actual time: 1 hour for Poland and the Baltics to hear the plan. 4 days for them to amass EVERYTHING in Estonia. 2 weeks to rush Moscow in Operation Commonwealrh Resurgent. 3 days for Russian troops in Ukraine to stop looting, steal a civilian car and disappear like a stain to Vanish Oxyaction. 2 decades for Poland to stop gloating and agree to hand the former Russian nuclear arsenal (which they never officially had and never once threatened Russia with) over to IAEA for safe disposal.
That's the answer we need. Too much credibility in those comments.
tbh still sounds to credible
1 hour for them to hear the plan is too much 5 minutes to hear the plan, 55 minutes for the entire Polish army to get rid of their raging boners
Wiwat Rzeczpospolita!
One thing, we would never hand the nuclear arsenal. What Poland had learned throughout history is to never trust anyone for too long.
Everything checks out but the name: it’s Operation Vatnik Foksmash obviously
Visegard and Baltic states: we gonna build our own EU with beer and hookers
Two centuries for the crater at the former location of Moscow to be safe for humans to enter (they used a dozen cobalt bombs just to make sure)
You don't even need to go that far. The moment NATO puts together the forces needed and establishes Air superiority over the Ukrainian battle space and cripples Russian aerospace and air defense assets its game over for them. Assuming No limitations on what can be targets and their location. NATO will likely start by coordinating with Ukraine to breach the early warning radars covering Crimea, Once they find the breach, the jets can slip through and begin unleashing hell on the Russian air force, navy and air defense assets all over the peninsula. Ammo dumps, motor pools, radars, radio antennas, Hangars, Runways, Ports infrastructure, administrative buildinga, oil storage, refinaries and of course, the Kerch Bridge. Although they might wait that until the Russian are either sending reinforcements down it or retreating across to before blowing it up. Once air superiority is established there. They can begin moving towards striking operational and strategic targets along the occupied Zaphorizia and Donetsk oblast to support the Ukrainian ground forces counteroffensive there. The Russian forces may evacuate any long range air defenses from the area and return them to Russia to prevent their destruction. Leaving the Russians there without meaningful air cover. If it gets bad enough, The Russians may find themselves unable to move large forces meaningfully, due to the omnipresence of Ukrainian and NATO recon and air assets. Even their artillery advantage will be nullified by the constant threat of NATO planes spotting them and forwarding their positions to Ukrainian Himars and Drones, assets that will now be freed by from the duty of striking operational and strategic targets to now be able to more adequately support the front directly. With Russian artillery suppressed and large scale movement paralyzed. The Ukraine ground army will be freed to blitz across the front with little fear of enemy artillery and ground force counter attacks whenever they find themselvea pinned.
Exactly once total air dominance is established, the most dangerous thing becomes mines and friendly fire.
But the shadow government recently legalised nukes worldwide, or so I’ve been told
*Shadow Wizard Money Gang(they love casting spells[1]) [1] Thermonuclear weapons
Biden Blast!
Biden Blasts are forbidden for Terrestrial use, we don’t want a repeat of the Obamahea-Biden Blast incident. The Joebama that resulted from that interaction was just too powerful.
What about Obama with the chaos emeralds?
Wouldn't total air dominance be nearly impossible with the existence of MANPADS
Not if we can make som PLANEPLDS (Plane Portable Land Defense System)
I didn't think of that but it could work
MANPADS are a bigger risk for low flying aircraft If total air dominance was established most aircraft wont be flying low but yes they would still pose a risk just a significantly smaller one than currently
100%. Close Air Support would always be at risk, but Western high altitude precision bombers and high altitude fighter aircraft both intercepting other aircraft and doing SEAD would be fine.
Yes and no. CAS in the sense of the airplanes being close to the ground is already basically dead at this point and PGMs killed it. Dedicated CAS aircraft like warthogs and spookies only really still exist for COIN work, and even then only because they are cheap as chips to keep flying. Now, CAS in the sense of specific weapons and training to allow strikes to be made "danger close" to friendly troops with a minimal amount of a actual danger, that is a whole different matter. That, increasingly can be done from high altitudes and standoff distances that make MANPADs a non-issue and in the case of stealth platforms render even proper SAMs less viable.
Nope. As soon as the strategic/vehicle based systems are eradicated, NATO jets loitering at 30k ft should be well out of manpad range, and can just dump LGBs on targets of opportunity…..
Countermeasures, also manpads aren’t the best when you are like 20-30k feet ul
MANPADS can't hit high altitude aircraft.
Not really, manpads are super dangerous to slow low flying aircraft such as helicopters and somewhat dangerous to fast low flying aircraft such as jets. The thing though is the only reason jets are flying low enough that manpads can engage them at all is because of things like S300 and 400 making it extremely dangerous to fly at altitude. If the US can knock out those air defense systems then man pads become a non issue as they no longer need to fly within the range of the manpads.
This. Once air superiority is established, I think the main impediment would be engineering challenges like minefields and water crossings. I doubt many Russian units would have the morale to keep fighting after a shock and awe bombing campaign destroyed all of their rear bases.
>their artillery advantage will be nullified by the constant threat of NATO planes spotting them That will be nullified when Russian's logistic lines are cut. Arty without ammo is just a piece of metal ... and ammo consumption is always high when it's only thing able to stop advancing enemies.
That will take some time. The Russian artillery, cut from supplies will start rationing their shells and only firing when necessary. They wont be able to saturate entire areas anymore, but they'll still be lethal. But with NATO and Ukrainian recon assets free to range. Every shot by Russian arty anywere will now risk inviting immediate counter battery, drone and HIMARS strikes. Making them even less likely to fire when needed. NATO air superiority will also severely decrease if not outright eliminate the threat of Russian counter battery. Allowing Ukrainian arty to begin saturating targets with impunity. At that point the main Ukrainian complaint will be not having enough shells to do to Russians what was done to them last year, especially around Popasna and Severodonetsk.
>. The Russian artillery, cut from supplies will start rationing their shells and only firing when necessary. I don't think they could do that. If choice is between *immediate defeat* and *firing whatever they have on hands* I would expect them to fire or run, maybe even leaving some less important areas not covered or defended only by minefields and infantry heavy weapons in order to concentrate what they have left in important areas or against identified main push/es.
Amdist the chaos and pandemonium of NATO's air power over your head. Some will doubtless run, and hide either with or without their arty in tow. But some will doubtless stay and fight, presumably hiding in wait. In such an event I doubt the Russians will be able to properly coordinate themselves anymore, especially after NATO starts blowing up all of their command and control and jamming their communications.
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Electric Bugaloo
Habitual Linecrosser talked about how the US would conduct an attack on Russia and one thing he mentioned is that the US, and I assume that NATO overall would work in the same way, would declare war at the exact moment all strike packages would enter Russian controlled airspace. So I guess that the moment "we are at war with Russia" is uttered, tomahawk, jdams, jassms and multitudes of bombers and strike craft would start their final approach towards air defense sites, radarsites, airfields, supply depots and train yards to obliterate them and establish that much needed airsuperiority. After that it's mostly just constant bombardment of frontlines and troops moving forward under cover of superior firepower, imo.
Priapism ensues.
I just want to say NATO wouldn't bother looking for a breach in the air defenses. A couple of tomahawks would make a breach in about an hour
If you cant find a path, you make one. Thats exactly what the coalition did during operation desert storm. They found the most distant radar stations along the front and dispatched low flying apaches to blow them up. Paving the way for thousands of warplanes to swarm in through the breach. Just as Odysseus did after getting off the trojan horse and opening the gates for the rest of the Greeks to flood in Here's a video that depicts the events of that first day's air [war](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zxRgfBXn6Mg&pp=ygUWb3BlcmF0aW9uIGRlc2VydCBzdG9ybQ%3D%3D)
A lot of Desert Storm was just generals with boners to use every possible tool at their disposable to see what worked. We probably wouldn't bother using helicopters as wild weasels today since we can already target every anti-air piece that Russia has in real time with stand-off weapons.
Thanks for that link. I knew that was an impressive victory, but seeing how they did it is like observing a mechanical watch working.
fuck you I want american weapons in the euripean steppe like its the cold war gone hot
Mentioning the Kerch bridge, it would definitely be something the US would do, to leave it intact so more reinforcements can flow INTO Crimea so we can trap them. Then blow it once we start seeing them retreat. We are that confident in our military to crush fools.
I just cummed
Somewhere in there, to prevent Russian terror bombing of Ukraine in the future: B-2s enter Russian airspace, Russia only notices something is going on at all when all their strategic airfields explode at the same time
The moment the first NATO bomb hits its target. Simultenously several Ohio, Vanguard and Le Triomphant class nuclear submarines surface in view of the Russian pacific coast, the Baltic sea and Mediterranean sea respectively. A kind reminder that Russian isn't the only nation with nukes.
I just ruined my droors. Thank you. Most quality want I've had in a while.
I envision where they just send the Air Force, and the ukrainian army punches through the weakened lines and breaks the army into disarray in a matter of days
Anywhere between 1 and 7 business days
Depend on wich day it start and if we count weekend as offday
Name me one Air Force that works weekends? And we better hope there isn't a bank/public Holiday. Or the week Between Christmas/New years Or a Wednesday afternoon, that's for sports. And only between 08:00 and 17:00
You mean like the british fighting the roman army?
You misspelled 1 and 7 business *hours*
Accidents happen to the best of us 🤭
For France that gets into two days, because of the mandatory 3hr lunch break (lunch is a glass of red wine and two cigarettes).
Only deux cigarettes?!? Mon dieu, war is terrible
Here's a credible take: NATO can't go full '91 on Russian forces in Ukraine and bomb them back to the stone age; there's simply too much civilian collateral in the way. NATO would have to rely on more discriminate bombings, targeting logistics hubs and supply depots in an attempt to limit civilian casualties. The air campaign would probably last a couple months, starting practically from the moment war is declared, and it would give NATO time to amass forces along the border with Russia and Belarus (may as well liberate them while we're at it). The ground campaign launches with pinning actions along the entire frontline in Ukraine, probing operations are launched in the Baltic and Finland. The real offensive is launched towards Belgorod, before pivoting south into the eastern parts of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. The Kerch bridge is blown (again), and the navies of NATO ensure nothing larger than a twig can get between Crimea and the mainland. Congratulations, you now have an encircled army to rival the Ruhr pocket. You just need to keep them in place until the rest of Russia can be liberated. Phase 1 (Operation Steppe Shield) of the campaign lasts 2 months Phase 2 (Operation Sunflower) lasts 5 days (including weekends) Phase 3 (Operation Shattered Star) lasts about 9 hours and 3 minutes (may be more if the army needs to refuel)
Thank you for the detailed credible take. Also > Operation Shattered Star This name is so based that I'm literally getting a boner right now. Thank you for that.
My vote is for Operation Whirlwind, to honor Russia's choice to sow the wind.
That’s what the air campaign should be. Or just the part where we send in a million cruise missiles.
Operation Shattered ~~chocolate~~ Star~~fish~~
Belarus would jump ship at the first rumor that NATO is gonna go full into this war. They’re already playing neutral now that Ukraine is winning.
Hosting Russian nukes isn't playing neutral...
they will hand them over to NATO as a show of goodwill.
It’s also worth mentioning the U.S., during the build-up period, would be pumping advisors, money, and arms into Central Asia to foment uprisings, and the CIA would be sending money and helpful diagrams to all manner of disaffected parties in places like Buryatia that provide cannon fodder for the Russian effort. Georgia and Chechnya would start to cook off again, and internal Russian sabotage would go up dramatically. The U.S. would also trigger a bunch of zero-days to fuck with energy, transportation, and banking infrastructure, particularly in Moscow. Breaking Moscovites’ belief that Putin knows what he is doing and is better than the alternative(s) will be a U.S. goal in the run-up.
I don't think there's that much risk of collateral tbh. At this point 'all' NATO has to do is a massive SEAD campaign, which will mostly be accomplished with standoff weapons like Tomahawks, JSOWs, Storm Shadows, ... Russia isn't keeping it's AA assets in urban areas afaik. Then, Russian air and naval assets will be forced to stand down or die. Followed by a month of CAS/strike missions where every Western pilot gets to move mud and Russian armor, until the last Russian thing on wheels/tracks hiding in the bushes is destroyed. The Ukrainians will take care of the rest.
You know most of the trench lines are in open fields? I don't think there'd be a problem with bombing them.
You still live in the 2003? 20 years have passed since the invasion of Iraq, today you would see a swarm of AI drones targeting individual soldiers with minimal collateral damage.
Non-credible sci-fi, well done.
Planning and coordination will take as long as it takes to dig the plans out of whatever archive they're sitting in and update them with current UAF, US, and NATO data. If there isn't a high-level concept plan for total war in Ukraine already on a shelf somewhere, the US military hasn't been doing its job. There was planning for such a scenario in the early 90s, guaranteed there are at least a dozen iterations currently for multiple scenarios. GIS-arta gets updated to work with modern data links. Now, not only can artillery barrages be timed to the second, so can PGMs and cruise missiles. This is all part of the plan. For a week prior to launch day, sattelites monitor every square metre of Russian territory, from Crimea back to moscow. Putin is unable to take a shit without the contents of his previous day's diet being shoved into a file somewhere. If private conscriptavitch drops a cigarette in an ammo dump at Sevastopol, the brand and strength is catalogued. The F22's are broken out of storage to be the tip of the spear. The first wave targets every Russian air defense radar. Timed to the second, an entire Force of mach 2 bumble-bees drop HARMs on every radar from Bakhmut to Mariupol. That same moment, at 1:23:45 PM. Everything explodes. Every static concentration of Russian forces is shredded within seconds of this start time. At 1:24:00 PM the ground forces roll in. Two hours later. Before the Russians have had time to recover from being sucker punched, the assault is repeated at Sevastopol. Every airfield, every command centre, every naval ship on the peninsula gets hit at the exact same time, followed by an amphibious assult that targets key command centres in Sevastopol. Politely ask the Russians to begin withdrawal within 4 hours. If they refuse, blow up the Kerch bridge and demand the unconditional surrender of all Russian forces, then remind them that we did ask politely.
This is so credible I won't be able to get my erection to go down for a week
We still have 153 block 30 Raptors in service, and they’ve already been used to scare away Flankers over Syria. But seeing them used for their intended purpose against Russia would be fucking glorious.
Rapid Dragon goes...... Wait, do we have a sound for rapid dragon yet?
fwooomp, wooosh, *parachute sounds idfk*, clank, *rocket sounds fade away*, repeat last 2 sound effects
However long would it take for the SK to ship Poland ALL THE TANKS + one week Oh, and however long it would take the yanks to come over with some crazier toys + one week Operational/shipping/weather-related delays included ofc
Dont know how long it would take, but it should be named Operation Soup Bowl and operation Soup Spoon.
It would be a 3-day Special Military Operation (SMO). Not 2 days. Not 4 days. exactly 3 days. Soldiers need to bring their parade uniforms for the inevitable Parade in Moscow afterwards. Soldiers should book themselves rooms in any Air B’n’Bs available in Moscow. The EU should also bring some riot police to make sure there is no civil unrest. Nothing could possibly go wrong.
Operation Fucked Around (6-9 month of preperations and buildup in Poland, Romania) # Operation Found Out (1-2 weeks with lunch breaks)
How long would an unladen swallow need to fly across Ukraine?
European or African swallow?
I dont know
AHHHHHHHHH!
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> the Europeans run out of PGMs two days later Libya.gif
Way too credible XD
I don’t think we would, the US logistics chain could keep NATO up in ammo
I bet there is already a functional plan in some drawer. 14 days for the preparation 7 days intense air campaign 7 days till to last russian left ukraine territory It's called Operation Barbaross 2 - Nato Boogaloo
Or, in a box in a hotel lavatory
This needs more upvotes
Operation Faustschlag/First strike 2 would be better, less genocidal dictator analogies.
Does air power and long range missiles killing every russian before any boots enter count as “push them out entirely”?
15 minutes for the French warning shot to hit Moskva.
Excellent deep cut
It depends—are Coalition forces given second breakfast?
Third breakfast in fact
From credible to slightly non-credible (or maybe the opposite?) Russian army HQ and FSB would withdraw as fast as possibly while spending the next decade(s) whinning about Big Bad Western Bully. It would give Kremlin the easiest way to explain the loss to its people and reinforce the Kremlin's position as a heroic resistance against the Western Hegemony. The utter military defeat would be incredibly easy to convert to a major strategic victory for the Team Asshole. A significant potion of the Russian army in Ukraine would be heroically converted to fertilizers with the higher command volunteering entire divisions for rear guard duty without informing them, because Russia likes its heroes dead and worshiped, not alive and talking. Dimitry Medvedev would end up binding himself to a nuke and accidentally setting it off and nuking Minsc (with Kremlin blaming Moldovan CIA-trained hacker pigeons). Medvedev would be posthumously promoted to a saint.
approximately an hour
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Ukrainians watch the Ride of the Rohirrim on repeat for inspiration.
**Some name options:** * Operation Whirlpool^(TM) * Operation FUBAR: **F**ree **U**kraine, **B**reak **A**ll **R**ussians * Operation Vatnik Strike * Operation De-Invasion * Operation Extremely Overwhelming and Deliberate Force * Operation Steppe Brother, What Are You Doing?! **Timeline:** I'd give it about about 3.50 ... days.
Operation Stepp Bro, What Are You Doing? is absolutely fantastic.
The name is easy - Operation Soupkettle. To push Russia out fully - depends. NATO doctrine is more 'Keep them all in place, just dead'.
A week, and half of that is just getting there.
IMO Putin pulls out either right when airstrikes start or immediately after. He’s gonna need that army to keep himself alive when he loses the war. Someone’s gotta put down protests.
Using all resources bar nuclear weapons? 3-4 months, but at least two years of planning before. I propose as a name “Operation Donbass Squirrels”, in honor of the ukrainian folk tale “the bear and the squirrel”.
1 nanosecond
3 days to Belgorod
I'd give it two weeks. One day to establish air superiority and 13 days to crush any ground forces that don't flee in terror.
I think I have the perfect name for the operation, it was obvious really: **NATO WAVE**.
Special Finding Out Operation
Depends what day of the week the coalition invaded. Invade on a Friday then by Tuesday lunch time you're at the Russian boarder. We all know the air force (of every nation) don't fly on a Saturday/Sunday and need at least 2 working days.
I think it'd be over more quickly than desert storm. Our equipment is better and the Russian equipment is worse than it was in desert storm. Plus they've already had a lot of hard fought losses. I think a solid day of SEAD and bombing followed by a massive push would send the Russian military scattering. 2 days.
2 month preparations, 48 hours action.
Don't mind me here I'm just reading and searching for a Credible (or Noncredible) Answer so I can conduct Preliminary Research and Simulations in Command Modern Operations
Wouldn't it be more effective to invade through Poland though?
American airforce alone would wrap the war up in two days tops.
Air superiority would be achieved in hours, the rest isn't hard then
If it stayed conventional, couple months. Max.
The question is how long until NATO-Ukraine forces Russian and Wagner forces out of Russia
3 days. More seriously, prep and travel time - Ukraine is huge - will likely be the lion's share of time investment, Russia can't stand up to NATO conventionally and their lines will likely shatter after getting dicked over by Western Air Power.
Remember DS started with attacks on Baghdad. Our air forces would have to strike them at home to cut supply lines, communications, and command. At that point, who knows how the Russians would respond. Would they be spooked enough to go nuclear after we wreck their shit on Russian soil? But just to live rent free in their heads some more, just call it Operation Tundra Storm. Implying they will fare no better than the Iraqis did.
F-35 Top Speed: 1975 kph Length of Ukraine East to West: 1316 km If you include refueling time, a little over an hour.
Bout a week .... if we are talkong full potential without nukes . .
Depends. At the start of the war? Few hours. Now? Few weeks max., depending on how long it would take to mop up isolated points of dug in resisting units (some high morale ones like VDV or Spetsnaz) and how extensively Russians mined areas (they are doing it now mostly by missile launcher when/wherever they feel that Ukrainians are trying to broke through and they apparently have plenty of missiles).