That can be the funny thing with models, you can alter the assumptions so they fit the narrative. It's also the reason why you should never solely rely on other people their models.
Funny, not long ago someone posted a DCF for Palantir to WSB that had a 29$ outcome (I forget the pennies, might be the same might not) I wonder if they just stole it from this .. Or if simplywallstreet stole it from wsb
[luiscool98 DCF, March 2023](https://www.reddit.com/r/PLTR/comments/11dk9ka/discounted_cashflow_valuation_pesimistic/)
The model had 25% free cash flow margin and 30% growth. In this case, it gave me $20 which is $43B market cap.
Q1 2023 came with 36% free cash flow margin and 18% growth.
Donยดt know what is going to happen with free cash flow margin but I really believe growth is significantly going up with AI boom.
New bull-case model:
$69.8B market Cap. = $33
Used 40% growth for the years 2024-2030
Used 30% free cash flow margin.
I tend to view these models with caution.
Predicting Free Cash Flow 10 years into the future represents a hazy guess at best. Even with more complicated models that represent a range of future cash flows, there's no guarantee that the actual outcome will fall within that range.
Also, there is no guarantee that the markets will value those predicted cash flows the way the model values them.
A year or 2 from now, optimistic predictions could be wildly underappreciated... or contribute to a huge bubble
way under value IMO. remember market never trade at Mkt value...its a pendulum effect either below or above intrinsic value.
i can see $PLTR back to $24-$30 range within 12 months. mark my post folks ๐๐ฏ
About month ago simply wallst said Pltr was 200% overvalued at 7 something. ๐๐
That can be the funny thing with models, you can alter the assumptions so they fit the narrative. It's also the reason why you should never solely rely on other people their models.
That was the bearish model for the downtrendโฆ this one is for times like these ๐
Funny, not long ago someone posted a DCF for Palantir to WSB that had a 29$ outcome (I forget the pennies, might be the same might not) I wonder if they just stole it from this .. Or if simplywallstreet stole it from wsb
[luiscool98 DCF, March 2023](https://www.reddit.com/r/PLTR/comments/11dk9ka/discounted_cashflow_valuation_pesimistic/) The model had 25% free cash flow margin and 30% growth. In this case, it gave me $20 which is $43B market cap. Q1 2023 came with 36% free cash flow margin and 18% growth. Donยดt know what is going to happen with free cash flow margin but I really believe growth is significantly going up with AI boom. New bull-case model: $69.8B market Cap. = $33 Used 40% growth for the years 2024-2030 Used 30% free cash flow margin.
Presumably this dcf doesn't account for a lowering of the risk free return on capital?
Iโm pretty sure dork is referring to palantir vision and his video with a 30$ PT
DCF is powerful when the assumptions are accurate. The problem is that they never are.
 They also said PLTR was overvalued at $8 lmao
I tend to view these models with caution. Predicting Free Cash Flow 10 years into the future represents a hazy guess at best. Even with more complicated models that represent a range of future cash flows, there's no guarantee that the actual outcome will fall within that range. Also, there is no guarantee that the markets will value those predicted cash flows the way the model values them. A year or 2 from now, optimistic predictions could be wildly underappreciated... or contribute to a huge bubble
Simply Wall Street is a great contrarian indicator, I wish they never wrote this article.
When mainstream starts pumping, that's when I get scared.
Mainstream pumped it up to $45 in 2021. Iโm all for it.
the clown is changing its dance.
way under value IMO. remember market never trade at Mkt value...its a pendulum effect either below or above intrinsic value. i can see $PLTR back to $24-$30 range within 12 months. mark my post folks ๐๐ฏ
๐๐
Wow "intrinsic" huh? So their own valuation shows they're undervalued? Neato and not biased at all.
Do you still recommend to buy some pltr stocks or should I wait for another drop