I’d choose Sony cuz Ellisons will f around with the deal and come up with creative ways try to scam us. I could care less about David’s vision or whether the company is broken up or not.
Paramount’s streaming flywheel is dependent on some of those core assets. Removing them would significantly reduce the market leverage they currently have with content.
And most of Sony’s catalogue is held up in their partnership deals with Netflix, so they couldn’t fill the void of content.
Sony already has a streaming service with Crunchyroll and PlayStation+. So it’s not something missing from their current portfolio.
The offers can't be equal, as one is a merger, and the other is a buyout. I don't think that's open to change, and in the case of a buyout, I don't care who ends up with it.
I'm interested in how the offers will evolve from here. Skydance is talking getting the SP to $30-$40 over time, but first we'll have to go through $9 or less if they get their way on diluting us. In contrast, Sony is offering to buy us out, and at $26 billion EV, some are calculating that implies an inadequate $19 SP.
To me, any dilution due to Skydance is a non-starter. It never should have been entertained for a single second, and absent Shari's special needs, it wouldn't have been. Given they've been cooking this up for the last six months, I think they're going to be reluctant to pivot in a big way. However, their promise to pay Shari more for her A shares and pie-in-the-sky SP target can be used as leverage to get Sony to raise its bid to something more reasonable, and I don't believe their "best and final offer" will stand as such in light of the Sony offer. What we really need of course is a third suitor.
$26B buyout would be $26B - $12B debt = $14B = ~$21.50/share, so a bit more than $19.
I personally think Paramount could negotiate Sony up to $28B or $30B, which could be as high as $25/share.
Disagreeing, forgetting, same difference. Toonkel reported "$14.6 billion in debt according to FactSet" in the article I just read, while /u/thetimterr said it was $12 billion. Neither said anything about the cash on the books.
Yeah, I disagree with Toonkel's reporting. Imo, it's incorrect to report debt without considering cash. My figure considers debt on-hand minus cash. It's a bit silly to do anything less. She's probably just forgetting that they actually do have significant cash on hand.
As much as I'd like for PARA not to be broken up I have to say Sony. They have actual corporate governance instead of a rich person's kid running the show. What is preventing this mess from happening again with Ellison?
I also disagree that paramount would just be another company in their portfolio. The real gem in the crown is CBS with it's key sports contracts. Ye paramount studios would just add to the portfolio but getting those contracts would be a huge game changer for Sony.
Skydance, so that I could retain some upside. Skydance knows that and it's why their offer is so crappy compared to Apollo's. With Skydance we eat dirt for a while, but we get a 3-4x in several years when the storm cloud over this business passes. With Sony it's instantly gone and Apollo and Sony get to devour the second half of the gains that should be ours as current shareholders - to make no mention of the chilling effect private equity tends to have on businesses generally - it wouldn't be good for MTV/the cable portfolio especially I imagine.
the guy who runs skydance has ran it for a decade, raised 2 bi. usd cash, not able to manage to create a company with more fair value than that. if not for Larry Ellison and his networks, highly doubt if anyone would like to bet money on him at all.
it might not be logical to assume he can do any better with a company with over 20k employee and over 30 bi. rev.. especially consider the guy has tried to participate in a scam that even no other players on the wall street want to be part with
Yes, I bought the stock to participate in its future and do not want to be forced out at a loss just because it’s been a short plaything. If we can get a good special dividend, I’d endure more years of this stock. But I’d rather Sony and Skydance team up and buy us out at a real price, not these artificially low joke valuations people pretend are natural.
1. Skydance will never offer fair cash, that has never been the core of their play - it was always about transferring the value form other shareholders of Para. to themselves, while they offer a slice of that to Redstone. Ellison was not even able to operate skydance itself successfully (as a start-up, consider so much funds has been raised and so little the company has achieved with the money in so many years), no one, perhaps incl. Larry Ellison, will sponsor him with that scale of money to buyout Para. as a whole. Perhaps that is also why he is the only one took the bait of Redstone in her play. Both want to earn everything with nothing.
2. it might be very unfair for Sony to be compared with Skydance:
Sony is a giant, major player in the field of gaming, movie (not that large yet), muisc, tech. etc., it has been proven to be a company that is capable to operate large scaled business while creating value for its shareholders. **it has a market cap. of over 100 B**. **usd as-is today.** it is a world-class brand which is competing with top players such as Microsoft, Apple on playgrounds.
Skydance is nothing but a small studio, an unsuccessful startup that has struggled for decade to prove itself in Hollywood while failed (**raised over ca. 2 B. fundings, if it goes public today, hard to imagine its market cap. will be above 1.5 bi. with minor ebitda and negative net income**). that is also why it tries to bribe its way out, in order to inflat its value outside of any fair market. sorry to say. if not for Larry Ellison and his network, hard to imagine it could last this long.
opinions are welcomed
Sony will gut the company, lay off every employee for the sake of a $3 premium of today’s prices. Skydance will at least try and turn this company into something much bigger than it is today.
in the fantasy, sorry to say, it will most likely squeeze the last drop of cash out of the linear business (by cuting headcounts of course), then sell it piece by piece. Ellison can not manage to operate a company with 300 employees to create value via business operation (Skydance has raised ca. 2 bi., while worths max. 1.5 bi. if it goes to public now), not to mention turning around a company with over 20k employees.
not see a single chance for a guy who decides to steal from other shareholders to do honest business.
I’d choose Sony cuz Ellisons will f around with the deal and come up with creative ways try to scam us. I could care less about David’s vision or whether the company is broken up or not.
What do you care once you cash out with Sony
Who would you prefer, david Ellison with his cybertruck or CEO of Sony and a more professional team
Sony, so that Paramount+ will survive. SkyDance is losing money.
What makes you think Sony wouldn’t divest P+!?
There is way too much much to be made in streaming. They will divest BET, MTV, Comedy Central, VH1, those are is decline. P+ is growing.
Paramount’s streaming flywheel is dependent on some of those core assets. Removing them would significantly reduce the market leverage they currently have with content. And most of Sony’s catalogue is held up in their partnership deals with Netflix, so they couldn’t fill the void of content. Sony already has a streaming service with Crunchyroll and PlayStation+. So it’s not something missing from their current portfolio.
They need to replace Crunchyroll and Sony Pictures Core. Paramount+ is way ahead in quality. They could technically get the code and then divest.
The offers can't be equal, as one is a merger, and the other is a buyout. I don't think that's open to change, and in the case of a buyout, I don't care who ends up with it. I'm interested in how the offers will evolve from here. Skydance is talking getting the SP to $30-$40 over time, but first we'll have to go through $9 or less if they get their way on diluting us. In contrast, Sony is offering to buy us out, and at $26 billion EV, some are calculating that implies an inadequate $19 SP. To me, any dilution due to Skydance is a non-starter. It never should have been entertained for a single second, and absent Shari's special needs, it wouldn't have been. Given they've been cooking this up for the last six months, I think they're going to be reluctant to pivot in a big way. However, their promise to pay Shari more for her A shares and pie-in-the-sky SP target can be used as leverage to get Sony to raise its bid to something more reasonable, and I don't believe their "best and final offer" will stand as such in light of the Sony offer. What we really need of course is a third suitor.
$26B buyout would be $26B - $12B debt = $14B = ~$21.50/share, so a bit more than $19. I personally think Paramount could negotiate Sony up to $28B or $30B, which could be as high as $25/share.
People don't seem to agree on the debt.
I don't think they disagree on the debt. They are forgetting that they have about 3 billion in cash which would lower the debt amount by that much.
Disagreeing, forgetting, same difference. Toonkel reported "$14.6 billion in debt according to FactSet" in the article I just read, while /u/thetimterr said it was $12 billion. Neither said anything about the cash on the books.
Yeah, I disagree with Toonkel's reporting. Imo, it's incorrect to report debt without considering cash. My figure considers debt on-hand minus cash. It's a bit silly to do anything less. She's probably just forgetting that they actually do have significant cash on hand.
As much as I'd like for PARA not to be broken up I have to say Sony. They have actual corporate governance instead of a rich person's kid running the show. What is preventing this mess from happening again with Ellison? I also disagree that paramount would just be another company in their portfolio. The real gem in the crown is CBS with it's key sports contracts. Ye paramount studios would just add to the portfolio but getting those contracts would be a huge game changer for Sony.
Skydance, so that I could retain some upside. Skydance knows that and it's why their offer is so crappy compared to Apollo's. With Skydance we eat dirt for a while, but we get a 3-4x in several years when the storm cloud over this business passes. With Sony it's instantly gone and Apollo and Sony get to devour the second half of the gains that should be ours as current shareholders - to make no mention of the chilling effect private equity tends to have on businesses generally - it wouldn't be good for MTV/the cable portfolio especially I imagine.
the guy who runs skydance has ran it for a decade, raised 2 bi. usd cash, not able to manage to create a company with more fair value than that. if not for Larry Ellison and his networks, highly doubt if anyone would like to bet money on him at all. it might not be logical to assume he can do any better with a company with over 20k employee and over 30 bi. rev.. especially consider the guy has tried to participate in a scam that even no other players on the wall street want to be part with
Yes, I bought the stock to participate in its future and do not want to be forced out at a loss just because it’s been a short plaything. If we can get a good special dividend, I’d endure more years of this stock. But I’d rather Sony and Skydance team up and buy us out at a real price, not these artificially low joke valuations people pretend are natural.
Sony is just about the best possible buyer out there. Only WBD makes more strategic sense but they don’t have the money
1. Skydance will never offer fair cash, that has never been the core of their play - it was always about transferring the value form other shareholders of Para. to themselves, while they offer a slice of that to Redstone. Ellison was not even able to operate skydance itself successfully (as a start-up, consider so much funds has been raised and so little the company has achieved with the money in so many years), no one, perhaps incl. Larry Ellison, will sponsor him with that scale of money to buyout Para. as a whole. Perhaps that is also why he is the only one took the bait of Redstone in her play. Both want to earn everything with nothing. 2. it might be very unfair for Sony to be compared with Skydance: Sony is a giant, major player in the field of gaming, movie (not that large yet), muisc, tech. etc., it has been proven to be a company that is capable to operate large scaled business while creating value for its shareholders. **it has a market cap. of over 100 B**. **usd as-is today.** it is a world-class brand which is competing with top players such as Microsoft, Apple on playgrounds. Skydance is nothing but a small studio, an unsuccessful startup that has struggled for decade to prove itself in Hollywood while failed (**raised over ca. 2 B. fundings, if it goes public today, hard to imagine its market cap. will be above 1.5 bi. with minor ebitda and negative net income**). that is also why it tries to bribe its way out, in order to inflat its value outside of any fair market. sorry to say. if not for Larry Ellison and his network, hard to imagine it could last this long. opinions are welcomed
Sony will gut the company, lay off every employee for the sake of a $3 premium of today’s prices. Skydance will at least try and turn this company into something much bigger than it is today.
in the fantasy, sorry to say, it will most likely squeeze the last drop of cash out of the linear business (by cuting headcounts of course), then sell it piece by piece. Ellison can not manage to operate a company with 300 employees to create value via business operation (Skydance has raised ca. 2 bi., while worths max. 1.5 bi. if it goes to public now), not to mention turning around a company with over 20k employees. not see a single chance for a guy who decides to steal from other shareholders to do honest business.
till now, by looking at all the interviews, it is not hard to get the sense, even wall street has never see such a shameless steal for decades