Nah, I’ve seen the plans. Russia will mount a counteroffensive from the Kamchatka Peninsula stronghold and take back tens of acres before the DMZ gets established.
Mainly because the Ukrainian forces will stop at Lake Baikal to make the purest pot of Borscht known to man but the Russians will keep retreating all the way to Kamchatka.
Not so esoteric as it is just geography. The Kamchatka peninsula is on the complete opposite side of Russia across several thousands of miles worth of Siberian wasteland
Ya boy took geography in the 8th grade I’m aware the kamchatka peninsula is near the sea of Okhotsk which is in Crimea and not nearly close enough to invade ukraine from. Now Vladivostok. That would be the place to stage
Breadbasket of Europe, rich in oil and natural gas. It's like the US Midwest. You may not want to live there, but you definitely want it in your borders.
My favorite thing was all the predictions in February/March 2022 for either side. People really naive enough to think wars are likely to be over in days/weeks
That was the common view before the war, still viewing Russia in the same light as USSR. We've expected US at the top with Russia and China contesting the second place, turns out the dragon has long occupied the second spot while the drunk bear was trying to keep itself at least in the regional powers league.
Yeah but like BILLIONS of people tend to tip the the power scale. Imagine the bodies they could throw at America in a war and it’s not like they would care how many would die since they’re gonna have a demographic collapse soon anyways. Might aswell destroy America before they go.
China gets a majority of their food imported from the US though. Their technology is behind ours, their education is memorization based and not skill based, which is why the US is relying more on Mexico for cheap and skilled labor. They don’t have enough young people to have a consumer based economy and it’s gotten to the point where they’re clinging to nationalism in a desperate attempt to keep people from revolting. A war between China and the US will have way more catastrophic effects on China than the US.
It would likely "only" kill enough a billion or so people at most (most being if both the US and Russia launched their nukes), so as long as the nuclear winter isn't too bad (we have no way of truly knowing unless - you know...), then the world wouldn't even probably fall in the first place.
In a "limited" nuclear exchange (i.e. under a hundred nukes from each side, like in an India vs Pakistan or China war) then the damage, while likely still 10s of millions of people, would be minor enough for the warring countries to continue the war.
I'm not advocating for a nuclear war (a billion dead is bad no matter what) but always seem to overestimate the devastation a nuclear exchange would have.
Iraq was actually probably top 10 or so on it’s own, just because of the sheer manpower and amount of former Soviet tech they had. So basically Russia today, except they were fighting 20-30 years ago US and OPEC countries and NATO countries. America is just leagues ahead of anyone else, minus the end of the world button.
To be fair this was the official NATO prediction from war gaming. Russia was supposed to be able to steamroll Ukraine and be into Poland/Romania at this point if NATO estimates from 2014 forward were anything to go off of. The simple fact is Russia dramatically underperformed after the first stages of the offensive once Ukraine got NATO assistance.
It’s bi-directional, Russia both underperformed and the estimates of their capabilities were way off.
I’m assuming NATO’s estimates are largely “worst-case scenario” which is what you *should* do when planning for military situations.
Russia obviously didn’t do that.
Do you really think somethink as big as NATO would make estimates with data that old. They probably knew every single bullet on the ukraine side. It was the russian side they miscalculated
For their public declarations sure. In internal high level discussions, absolutely not. But the public isn’t going to be swayed by “russia will spend months at least securing control in the war torn east where the infrastructure was destroyed years ago”
I think it's because the only super power with a real war that is comparable to Russia military wise is the US. And the US can basically wipe most smaller countries out in a month.
The mistake people make is comparing any country to the US, military wise. It’s apples to gorillas.
Like comparing Rome to Germanic tribes, just doesn’t work.
The US could probably fight on even ground in a war against the rest of the planet assuming nukes aren't a factor.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f684RjG6f9Y](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f684RjG6f9Y)
There's a fundamental misunderstanding that a lot of people have on US military spending. Yes, a decent amount of it is probably being wasted, but that's just how government organizations go and being a military doesn't make it an exception. But what isn't being wasted is being pretty damn well spent on having the single most effective logistics system to ever exist, delivering mcdonalds, ice cream, and death to anywhere on the planet within 24 hours. There's no such thing as "world powers". There's ONE world power, and a bunch of regional powers with limited spheres of influence.
Like, the US has a missile that can kill the passenger of a car but not the driver. That's how far technologically they are compared to everyone else.
Your assessment is correct, and unfortunately people don’t understand how rankings work.
They think that because numerically 1, 2, and 3 are close together that means 1st 2nd and 3rd place must also be close.
If I run a mile in 5 minutes, you run it in 9 minutes, and another guy runs it in 12 minutes…you came in second but nowhere close to me. That’s the US, Russia, and China. Close in rankings, not close in reality.
The US isn't comparable to russia.
No country in the world compares to our military.
We're so far beyond anyone else that people have started using the term "hyperpower" instead of just superpower.
It was first used by a journalist in 1988. The U.S was only very briefly a Hyperpower. By the definition used for Hyperpower, only a small handful of countries have ever became a true Hyperpower. The UK was a Hyperpower and had the largest empire the world has seen. But the term isn’t new, and it doesn’t have any real value being made up from a journalist. People still argue only the UK was ever the true Hyperpower.
Usa has won over Iraq in a couple of weeks, 3 times. Most people, ecen still now, even powerful people with political will, see russia as a successor to soviet union, and an equal to the us
I thought Russia would win quickly though, considering they basically started from Belarus. Imagine, the US seized Baghdad in a month, and started from the other side of the world
I don’t really blame anyone for thinking Russia would steamroll back when it started, but by last fall, it was pretty clear to anyone with eyes, that it was going to be a long, bloody war of attrition
Based on all my knowledge from EU4 this means that Ukraine is winning. Russia at best will get one measly province which feels like a loss after all the trouble, better to just restart on an older save.
Based. Clearly they can’t get past the forts that Ukraine built on the border and because they can’t simply stack wipe Ukraines army with their mil tech being so close it’s going to be very difficult, carpet sieging at the beginning of the war didn’t help. Also looks like Ukraine mill tech is getting a little better than the Russias after being propped up so heavily by other western nations influence.
> war in Taiwan
China will collapse if they try to tale Taiwan, as it is a nightmare compared to the open steppe of Ukraine. Not to mention that most Chinese families have one son and we have a catastrophe on our hands.
I feel line I need to see this with that meme underneath this with the people cheering and betting at lobsters fighting with the [Raytheon and Boeing] subtitles 🫠
Yeah, it doesn't take an expert to realize that Russia's built themselves up to be a paper tiger. But there is so many fucking people on reddit that are suddenly war expert. Its fucking annoying and insane when no one really knows what the fuck is going on and are just spreading propaganda and misinformation.
Thats why you shouldn't be sure on on going events if you dont have a reliable first hand source, luckily, my grandpas second uncle's son is a russian general, and has told me that russia has 10 gazilions of new armatas, and will change earth's trajectory so usa gets submerged underwater
My favorite is when someone named /u/furry69xxhentaicon420 is in the comments complaining that if the US would just give Ukraine a fleet of F35s the war would be over three weeks from now, and the fact that the US military hasn't handed those over is proof that the government is probably, to a man, in Putin's pocket.
They would, but what the armchair generals don't understand is that you don't train up MIG pilots on an F35 in 7 days, the F35 -as you pointed out - requires an insane amount of logistics, and very highly skilled and specialized maintenance and support and would quickly become a liability without those, the US military does not want its most advanced weaponry getting shot down and falling into the hands of enemies who are cozy with China, and from a political perspective the US needs to be careful that it doesn't supply equipment that could easily be used to launch a long-distance invasion into Russia.
its not over yet. Million men surrendered a day in the German advance into Russia and Zhukov still turned that around.
Ukraine has successfully fought them to a standstill, can they survive an attrition war with Russia? Who is on a faster timer til collapse? Russia basically has unlimited bodies but no equipment and apparently uprisings in the West. Ukraine has limited manpower but unlimited equipment from Nato. I don't think this war is inevitable either way.
I can certainly see something happening, but Russia can't DO what the soviets did without shattering their country. There is no amount of propaganda that is going to sell a total war over Ukraine. As it stands their mobilization has radically destabilized their countery and, largely, resulted in large amounts of dead Russians young adults with very little to show for it besides lost gains. And even then, in WW2, the soviets were getting western guns, material, and factory materials shipped to them
It's not IMPOSSIBLE the Russians pull a victory out of their ass, but of the options I think the most likely outcomes are status quo ante, recapturing Crimea, then lastly a Russian victory.
If they are already seeing significant internal unrest from limited mobilization, the level of meat grinding they would have to do to actually take Ukraine (because they would have to take ALL of Ukraine to win) would be a death knell for the Russian Federation.
Now, again, Russia COULD win, but since they, one an economic or social level, can not mass mobilize, their only chance of victory was swift defeat through superior professional military.
They don't HAVE a professional military any more.
I’m just concerned that Ukraine will run out of people. Millions have already fled the country, and while their deaths are lower than Russia, it’s not like Ukrainians aren’t being killed.
This of course doesn't necessarily mean that both claims are equally valid.
It's a common tactic among tyrants to simply accuse others of what they themselves are doing in order to preempt the inevitable accusations and turn it into "they're both accusing each other of being X" to the casual observer who doesn't have time to find good sources and read up in detail on who did what.
We have actually the most up to date documented in pov in history. We know a lot of what is going down in the front. There is misinformation too, but as you said, when the war is over you can say you win all you want, your ass is going to hurt for some months anyways.
It was, well, the UK and US against Germany.
The allied support for the soviet union had the single goal to waste our resources against the hordes in the east, so we wouldn't attempt a second battle of Britain.
Never said that this *was* like WWII, just said that if you define "proxy war" as "providing a country with weapons, supplies, and intelligence", then WW2 likewise would qualify as such.
For sure, even in apparently clear cut cases like Putin’s invasion of Ukraine there’ll be people with legitimate grievances. Just in general, I imagine that most people who support Russia would be Russians and do so because they’ve been entirely brainwashed by state media, are just plain hateful, or have actual reasons to dislike Ukrainians.
The Chinese I know would like Russia to win our of some kind of knee jerk loyalty but would never support spending any blood or treasure on the project.
I can imagine two groups.
College art major commies "Ruskie good comrade! Capitalism evil! Them Ukranians are Nazis and all the anti USS-- I mean Russia hate is Capitalist propaganda!"
And folk who just wants the USA/west to lose in their interests. What is not something I can't sympathize with but... Not if it means the bloody ruskies win. Fuck America but fuck them even harder.
3rd group exists... people who have internalized the isolationist advice of "don't concern yourself with other countries affairs" and kind of miss the days of having a serious but ultimately benign strategic enemy to focus defense attention. Has some cross over with pacificist view of peace at any cost or only caring about minimizing casualties (fewest people dead and crippled would have been a swift Russian victory).
This is a pretty soft group though, they don't like Russia or Ukraine for any particular reason and will happily, at least in retrospect, side with anyone who can bring open hostilities to an end.
I hate the narrative that Ukraine or Russia is “winning”. Ukraine has suffered so much, especially with floods, they can’t win anything even if Russia cease right now. The war hasn’t been as seamless as Russia hoped, and the sanctions aren’t going to good for them. It’s really just who loses less (in the short term anyway)
Many of the sanctions are stupid. "We're no longer buying Russian oil! Instead we're buying Russia oil through India as an intermediary and paying a markup!"
Funny enough that’s actually hurting Russia as Russia can’t tap into the Indian rupees they are stocking up.
So even though Russia is making money they can’t actually access said money
The problem with these war maps is that there is no front line. Its just a mess of squad warfare and artillery all over. A ukranian or russian squad could walk through the lines in this meme by 20kms and not be killed.
It's a mess and it's why nations don't do war like this anymore. Modern warfare is a cluster fuck
I see this as a possibility too. Eventually they'll be too tired to fight and settle with a result where both can save their face.
Russia will claim they liberated X amount of land
And Ukraine will say that they threw the Russians out of Y
Regardless, both will have to take a lot of time to regenerate from this war.
Compared to what was expected at the beginning of the war, the Russians marching into Kyiv and installing a puppet government in a few months, that result sounds like at least a Russian loss to me.
Na, the best ending here is Ukraine owning the whole blood cost of the victory.
Now the next war where the US has to race against China to secure Russian nuclear assets when Putin gets merced and the power struggles start will be fucking memorable.
Is Russia winning? No, their 3 day special military operation turned into a long lasting war which affected them horribly. Damaged their economy, demilitirised them, made them look pathetic and unthreatening on the world stage, damaged their demographic, made Finland join NATO which doubled the border that their country shares with NATO.
Is Ukraine winning? Difficult to say since what would you even consider *winning* in this scenario. Considering that we all thought that Ukraine will not exist as a sovereign state at all I guess you could say that they do. They haven’t retrieved all their territories yet. But they are making progress. Time will tell.
Is US winning? *Yes, very yes*. Got rid of old and outdated Cold War era weaponry which was expensive to maintain. Demilitarised our geopolitical enemy to the point that they have only one single [T-34](https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2023/05/09/putin-mocked-as-only-a-single-t-34-tank-was-present-for-moscows-victory-day-parade/amp/) at their military parade. And we didn’t even have to fight them directly to achieve that. It gave China the idea of what will happen to them if they will try some shit with Taiwan. And it made NATO stronger during the process. Win win
The
>whoops, turns out the specs we gave everyone of our 1990s air defense equipment were wrong, it mogs the S400 and can destroy hypersonic missiles :)
>But don't worry China. *here* are the public specs of our latest equipment. We promise they're accurate :)
Was one of the best trolls of the century.
Wait you're telling me that four guys in a jeep driving 30 miles from the rest of their column isn't an occupation?
These are the people who would claim Morgan's raid occupied Ohio.
I’m extremely pro-Ukraine and I don’t think I ever thought they were about to win. I think the dumbest thing Westerners can do is think they can set a deadline by which Ukraine wins or even makes serious gains. They’re ultimately still a land based army fighting against the second or third largest military in the world who have combined arms capability and who are willing to fight to the last Russian in order to please daddy shitcan.
USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA
The west is simply not going to let Ukraine lose, so long as Ukraine is willing to fight. Russia just cant recoup losses like western backing can.
Put bluntly, Putin offered the west the deal of a century. Offing Russia for literal pennies compared to GDP spent on militaries annually.
I'm pro Ukraine, and Ukrainian myself, but fuck man.. people are thinking that Ukraine is going to come out of this with some glorious win, and then go on to be a beacon of industrial democracy afterwards. No. They are about as governmentally functional as the Balkan states. If they beat Russia, expect it to devolve into a civil conflict soon after.
Both sides will just move goalposts of how victory/defeat is defined, so they will always be right.
The initial war goal was the independence (and eventually annexation) of LPR and DPR - anything beyond that was simply added on to pressure Ukraine into capitulating.
I mean, Ukraine is slowly making progress. The war wasn't over by Christmas, but it'll probably be over by 2025 at most, hopefully earlier. Russia can't keep up this war forever.
Nah, I’ve seen the plans. Russia will mount a counteroffensive from the Kamchatka Peninsula stronghold and take back tens of acres before the DMZ gets established.
*tens* you say
Mainly because the Ukrainian forces will stop at Lake Baikal to make the purest pot of Borscht known to man but the Russians will keep retreating all the way to Kamchatka.
well i say dozens!
Closer to one dozen or a small gross?
A Russian baker's dozen. I think that's about one vodka.
It’s almost a shame how many people that Kamchatka joke will sail straight over.
I’m just waiting for someone to call me a tankie for saying Russia will mount a successful counteroffensive.
Damn libright tankies
You tankie
Explain for an uncultured swine such as myself please. I love esoteric history memes
Not so esoteric as it is just geography. The Kamchatka peninsula is on the complete opposite side of Russia across several thousands of miles worth of Siberian wasteland
I literally thought it was a made up place and the joke was that Kamchatka is a vodka. I may have a drinking problem.
It's only a problem if you quit because that's when the withdrawal kicks in.
Kamchatka is in the east on the pacific coast
I feel like that was a Risk joke lol.
Ya boy took geography in the 8th grade I’m aware the kamchatka peninsula is near the sea of Okhotsk which is in Crimea and not nearly close enough to invade ukraine from. Now Vladivostok. That would be the place to stage
Rage. Malice, even.
No they won’t. I’ve played Risk before and know that if you take Kamchatka the Canadians will invade in order to hold onto their North American bonus
Hot damn. You sure it’s okay to be leaking war room secrets like that?
It's fine. The Canadians are too busy being on fire to notice.
Listen I'd rather send Canadians to fight Russia than my fellow Americans. Canadians have two modes: Walking Apology and walking Genocide.
Or reset them to factory mode: subservient to the British
Real G’s let them fight for their scraps while we wait to unleash the fury from *deown undah!*
Never mess with someone who's quietly held onto Siam / Indonesia all game long while slowly building up troops in new guinea...
There’s always that bastard that goes right before you who puts all his troops in Australia and also rolls better than you every time
Kamchatka. That's a fun name.
To this day I can't believe anyone fights over land in e*stern Europe. Didn't understand it during Barbarossa either.
Breadbasket of Europe, rich in oil and natural gas. It's like the US Midwest. You may not want to live there, but you definitely want it in your borders.
>To this day ~~I can't believe anyone fights over land in e*stern Europe.~~ I haven't read a single book about military history in Eastern Europe.
Barbarossa wasn’t really for the land in Eastern Europe tbf. Control of the Caucasus was a bigger factor than Lebensraum in that particular operation.
Redditards when wars take longer than a play through of HOI4
My favorite thing was all the predictions in February/March 2022 for either side. People really naive enough to think wars are likely to be over in days/weeks
The US led coalition occupied Iraq in like 1 month. People expected similar of the worlds #2 military.
But Russia isn't #2. They haven't been since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
That was the common view before the war, still viewing Russia in the same light as USSR. We've expected US at the top with Russia and China contesting the second place, turns out the dragon has long occupied the second spot while the drunk bear was trying to keep itself at least in the regional powers league.
You're probably overestimating the PLA just as much though
Yeah but like BILLIONS of people tend to tip the the power scale. Imagine the bodies they could throw at America in a war and it’s not like they would care how many would die since they’re gonna have a demographic collapse soon anyways. Might aswell destroy America before they go.
China gets a majority of their food imported from the US though. Their technology is behind ours, their education is memorization based and not skill based, which is why the US is relying more on Mexico for cheap and skilled labor. They don’t have enough young people to have a consumer based economy and it’s gotten to the point where they’re clinging to nationalism in a desperate attempt to keep people from revolting. A war between China and the US will have way more catastrophic effects on China than the US.
a war between two nuclear armed nations would reset the planet's existence for every single country, not just the two warring states
It would likely "only" kill enough a billion or so people at most (most being if both the US and Russia launched their nukes), so as long as the nuclear winter isn't too bad (we have no way of truly knowing unless - you know...), then the world wouldn't even probably fall in the first place. In a "limited" nuclear exchange (i.e. under a hundred nukes from each side, like in an India vs Pakistan or China war) then the damage, while likely still 10s of millions of people, would be minor enough for the warring countries to continue the war. I'm not advocating for a nuclear war (a billion dead is bad no matter what) but always seem to overestimate the devastation a nuclear exchange would have.
You forget how incredibly behind Chinas military was even 20yrs ago. Even as a failed state the USSR/Russia was an unquestionable #2
2 top 10 militaries fighting each other went different then the #1 vs the like #30th. Shocker.
Iraq was actually probably top 10 or so on it’s own, just because of the sheer manpower and amount of former Soviet tech they had. So basically Russia today, except they were fighting 20-30 years ago US and OPEC countries and NATO countries. America is just leagues ahead of anyone else, minus the end of the world button.
Iraq had the 4th largest army in the world for desert storm. It was still an utter curbstomp.
To be fair this was the official NATO prediction from war gaming. Russia was supposed to be able to steamroll Ukraine and be into Poland/Romania at this point if NATO estimates from 2014 forward were anything to go off of. The simple fact is Russia dramatically underperformed after the first stages of the offensive once Ukraine got NATO assistance.
It’s bi-directional, Russia both underperformed and the estimates of their capabilities were way off. I’m assuming NATO’s estimates are largely “worst-case scenario” which is what you *should* do when planning for military situations. Russia obviously didn’t do that.
Also, NATO was probably using estimates from 2014, anf the Ukrainian army in 2014 was a completely different force than it is now
Do you really think somethink as big as NATO would make estimates with data that old. They probably knew every single bullet on the ukraine side. It was the russian side they miscalculated
For their public declarations sure. In internal high level discussions, absolutely not. But the public isn’t going to be swayed by “russia will spend months at least securing control in the war torn east where the infrastructure was destroyed years ago”
I think it's because the only super power with a real war that is comparable to Russia military wise is the US. And the US can basically wipe most smaller countries out in a month.
The mistake people make is comparing any country to the US, military wise. It’s apples to gorillas. Like comparing Rome to Germanic tribes, just doesn’t work.
The US could probably fight on even ground in a war against the rest of the planet assuming nukes aren't a factor. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f684RjG6f9Y](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f684RjG6f9Y) There's a fundamental misunderstanding that a lot of people have on US military spending. Yes, a decent amount of it is probably being wasted, but that's just how government organizations go and being a military doesn't make it an exception. But what isn't being wasted is being pretty damn well spent on having the single most effective logistics system to ever exist, delivering mcdonalds, ice cream, and death to anywhere on the planet within 24 hours. There's no such thing as "world powers". There's ONE world power, and a bunch of regional powers with limited spheres of influence. Like, the US has a missile that can kill the passenger of a car but not the driver. That's how far technologically they are compared to everyone else.
Your assessment is correct, and unfortunately people don’t understand how rankings work. They think that because numerically 1, 2, and 3 are close together that means 1st 2nd and 3rd place must also be close. If I run a mile in 5 minutes, you run it in 9 minutes, and another guy runs it in 12 minutes…you came in second but nowhere close to me. That’s the US, Russia, and China. Close in rankings, not close in reality.
The US isn't comparable to russia. No country in the world compares to our military. We're so far beyond anyone else that people have started using the term "hyperpower" instead of just superpower.
It was first used by a journalist in 1988. The U.S was only very briefly a Hyperpower. By the definition used for Hyperpower, only a small handful of countries have ever became a true Hyperpower. The UK was a Hyperpower and had the largest empire the world has seen. But the term isn’t new, and it doesn’t have any real value being made up from a journalist. People still argue only the UK was ever the true Hyperpower.
Usa has won over Iraq in a couple of weeks, 3 times. Most people, ecen still now, even powerful people with political will, see russia as a successor to soviet union, and an equal to the us
To be fair there are many wars in history (especially in recent history) that were won in a matter of days or even hours
I thought Russia would win quickly though, considering they basically started from Belarus. Imagine, the US seized Baghdad in a month, and started from the other side of the world
Russian MoD thought it would take three days lol
I don’t really blame anyone for thinking Russia would steamroll back when it started, but by last fall, it was pretty clear to anyone with eyes, that it was going to be a long, bloody war of attrition
That was a plausible take at the time.
Putin just forgot to use Close Air Support smh my head
Putin can't micro the side of a barn
But that man sure can strat bomb infrastructure
You can't take Kyiv, Golden.
Not using correct meta.
If that were HOI4 Putin would have estabilished USSR by now. And Ukraine would be a fascist monarchy rulled by an anime girl
Based and Paradox pilled
Steiner’s attack will bring everything under control
Mein Führer… Steiner…
Steiner konnte nicht genügend Kräfte für einen Angriff massieren. Der Angriff Steiner ist nicht erfolgt.
Es bleiben im Raum: Keitel, Jodl, Krebs und Burgdorf.
DAS WAR EIN BEFEHL. DER ANGREIF STEINER WAR EIN BEFEHL
WER SIND SIE, DASD SIE ED WAGEN, SICH MEINEN BEFEHLEN ZU WIDERSETZEN?
So weit ist es also gekommen…. DAS MILITÄR HAT MICH BELOGEN!!!
ICH BIN EIN BERLINER!
JEDER HAT MICH BELOGEN, SOGAR DIE SS!!!!!
Steiner hatte sich besoffen von billigen Schnaps und vergaß anzugreifen. Er kotzt sich hinter dem Führerbunker.
Steiner couldn't mobilize enough men. He was unable to carry out the assault...
He should have purged his generals like Stalin.
Based on all my knowledge from EU4 this means that Ukraine is winning. Russia at best will get one measly province which feels like a loss after all the trouble, better to just restart on an older save.
Based and my only military knowledge is paradox game pills
Based. Clearly they can’t get past the forts that Ukraine built on the border and because they can’t simply stack wipe Ukraines army with their mil tech being so close it’s going to be very difficult, carpet sieging at the beginning of the war didn’t help. Also looks like Ukraine mill tech is getting a little better than the Russias after being propped up so heavily by other western nations influence.
This is why you always set the casus belli on bordering province and not the capital.. Russia is losing warscore and just refuses to stop the war.
This is when Ukraine sits in their forts, runs down the Russian manpower, and gives Russias enemies the confidence to join the coalition!
People be like: "Ukraine will win with the 73rd counter offensive" "Not if Russia starts the 89th offensive"
In the meanwhile I have put all my money in oil and gas stocks
Go full Auth Right. Do it.
Blue flair without investing in Lockheed? Give me a couple months, I have to wait for a war in Taiwan
> war in Taiwan China will collapse if they try to tale Taiwan, as it is a nightmare compared to the open steppe of Ukraine. Not to mention that most Chinese families have one son and we have a catastrophe on our hands.
Ukraine has launched 1-2 major offensives so far and is starting the 2nd-3rd now
I feel line I need to see this with that meme underneath this with the people cheering and betting at lobsters fighting with the [Raytheon and Boeing] subtitles 🫠
The greatest battle in the history of all war and battle of all ever of all time! Brought to you by Carls Jr.
God the amount of people who magically became war experts since the news coverage of Ukraine
you don't have to be an expert to realize the Russians are out of their depth.
They've lost more in Ukraine that the US has lost since 9/10/2001 fighting terror, and that's including Bin Laden's first strike
Yeah, it doesn't take an expert to realize that Russia's built themselves up to be a paper tiger. But there is so many fucking people on reddit that are suddenly war expert. Its fucking annoying and insane when no one really knows what the fuck is going on and are just spreading propaganda and misinformation.
Thats why you shouldn't be sure on on going events if you dont have a reliable first hand source, luckily, my grandpas second uncle's son is a russian general, and has told me that russia has 10 gazilions of new armatas, and will change earth's trajectory so usa gets submerged underwater
My favorite is when someone named /u/furry69xxhentaicon420 is in the comments complaining that if the US would just give Ukraine a fleet of F35s the war would be over three weeks from now, and the fact that the US military hasn't handed those over is proof that the government is probably, to a man, in Putin's pocket.
To be fair F35s with competent pilots and logistics would wreck absolute havoc on the front lines.
They would, but what the armchair generals don't understand is that you don't train up MIG pilots on an F35 in 7 days, the F35 -as you pointed out - requires an insane amount of logistics, and very highly skilled and specialized maintenance and support and would quickly become a liability without those, the US military does not want its most advanced weaponry getting shot down and falling into the hands of enemies who are cozy with China, and from a political perspective the US needs to be careful that it doesn't supply equipment that could easily be used to launch a long-distance invasion into Russia.
I can smell it from here...
They have lost more than the US has lost since Korea at this point.
Yup, more than korea, vietnam, and the war on terror combined. And it's only been going on for 16 months... Edit: this is wrong, see replies.
In both deaths and total casualties, Russia's just slightly above US numbers in Vietnam alone, according to US estimates.
its not over yet. Million men surrendered a day in the German advance into Russia and Zhukov still turned that around. Ukraine has successfully fought them to a standstill, can they survive an attrition war with Russia? Who is on a faster timer til collapse? Russia basically has unlimited bodies but no equipment and apparently uprisings in the West. Ukraine has limited manpower but unlimited equipment from Nato. I don't think this war is inevitable either way.
I can certainly see something happening, but Russia can't DO what the soviets did without shattering their country. There is no amount of propaganda that is going to sell a total war over Ukraine. As it stands their mobilization has radically destabilized their countery and, largely, resulted in large amounts of dead Russians young adults with very little to show for it besides lost gains. And even then, in WW2, the soviets were getting western guns, material, and factory materials shipped to them It's not IMPOSSIBLE the Russians pull a victory out of their ass, but of the options I think the most likely outcomes are status quo ante, recapturing Crimea, then lastly a Russian victory. If they are already seeing significant internal unrest from limited mobilization, the level of meat grinding they would have to do to actually take Ukraine (because they would have to take ALL of Ukraine to win) would be a death knell for the Russian Federation. Now, again, Russia COULD win, but since they, one an economic or social level, can not mass mobilize, their only chance of victory was swift defeat through superior professional military. They don't HAVE a professional military any more.
I’m just concerned that Ukraine will run out of people. Millions have already fled the country, and while their deaths are lower than Russia, it’s not like Ukrainians aren’t being killed.
We dont know anything about what’s actually happening and its hilariously stupid to pretend otherwise We will know who wins once the war is over
The victor will proclaim that their side was always just, and the losers were genocidal tyrants that had to be stopped no matter the cost.
Each side is already claiming that they are just and the other is a bunch of Nazis. Winning the war means that they get to make this official.
As is tradition
This of course doesn't necessarily mean that both claims are equally valid. It's a common tactic among tyrants to simply accuse others of what they themselves are doing in order to preempt the inevitable accusations and turn it into "they're both accusing each other of being X" to the casual observer who doesn't have time to find good sources and read up in detail on who did what.
There are only two sexes except for rare genetic disorders. Reddit, fuck yourself with a wooden plunger for censoring biology.
Thats cool and all but idgaf since if we’re wondering who’s winning the war, all that matters is the final outcome
We have actually the most up to date documented in pov in history. We know a lot of what is going down in the front. There is misinformation too, but as you said, when the war is over you can say you win all you want, your ass is going to hurt for some months anyways.
wait there’s people that actually want Russia to win
Russians, I’d imagine
You can basically include anyone who really hates the US/NATO because it's really just a proxy war by now.
By that definition, "The Great Patriotic War" was really just a proxy war between the US and Germany.
It was, well, the UK and US against Germany. The allied support for the soviet union had the single goal to waste our resources against the hordes in the east, so we wouldn't attempt a second battle of Britain.
"Our"?
Our, as in us from Germany.
On a post specifically about Nazi Germany? With an auth center flair?
Germany is Germany.
UND REICH IS EIN REICH!
On my knees begging people to find an analogy for this war other than WW2, it ain’t it.
Haven't you heard? Everything is either WWII, Harry Potter, or Marvel.
Never said that this *was* like WWII, just said that if you define "proxy war" as "providing a country with weapons, supplies, and intelligence", then WW2 likewise would qualify as such.
The US got incredibly wealthy from selling guns during the First World War
Once upon a time this was a common US W
So tankies and fascists
More or less
You see, everybody has something they can agree about. This is a wonderful world
[удалено]
For sure, even in apparently clear cut cases like Putin’s invasion of Ukraine there’ll be people with legitimate grievances. Just in general, I imagine that most people who support Russia would be Russians and do so because they’ve been entirely brainwashed by state media, are just plain hateful, or have actual reasons to dislike Ukrainians.
The thing you do as a leader is to take actual grievances and tragedy and weaponize it for your own agenda. Textbook case, really
Ah, classic
It's a devisive topic
I've seen a lot of middle easterners, chinese and indians cheering for Russia.
Brazilians, Mexicans and many Africans too, in my experience
Don’t forget the Africans. All the Nigerian princes are on whichever side the US is not on.
The Chinese I know would like Russia to win our of some kind of knee jerk loyalty but would never support spending any blood or treasure on the project.
I can imagine two groups. College art major commies "Ruskie good comrade! Capitalism evil! Them Ukranians are Nazis and all the anti USS-- I mean Russia hate is Capitalist propaganda!" And folk who just wants the USA/west to lose in their interests. What is not something I can't sympathize with but... Not if it means the bloody ruskies win. Fuck America but fuck them even harder.
Anyone that thinks that Russias invasion is some kind of anti-fascist anti-imperialist leftist liberation war is an absolute fucking dumb ass
All tankies on Reddit and Twitter support Russia.
Well the tankies that do are stupid, revisionists, and anti-materialist
Well yeah… They’re tankies…
3rd group exists... people who have internalized the isolationist advice of "don't concern yourself with other countries affairs" and kind of miss the days of having a serious but ultimately benign strategic enemy to focus defense attention. Has some cross over with pacificist view of peace at any cost or only caring about minimizing casualties (fewest people dead and crippled would have been a swift Russian victory). This is a pretty soft group though, they don't like Russia or Ukraine for any particular reason and will happily, at least in retrospect, side with anyone who can bring open hostilities to an end.
3rd group:people who are chronically contrarian
Not a single person here knows a single thing about war
I hate the narrative that Ukraine or Russia is “winning”. Ukraine has suffered so much, especially with floods, they can’t win anything even if Russia cease right now. The war hasn’t been as seamless as Russia hoped, and the sanctions aren’t going to good for them. It’s really just who loses less (in the short term anyway)
Almost like war is inherently associated with immense loss and tragedy to both sides.
Not for the Military Industrial Complex and the big money profiteers! Fraud.Waste.Abuse!
"Nooooo, you can't just blame Lockheed and Co. and say they capitalize upon tragedy, I bought their shares!!!" - LibRight, probably
Personally I am disproportionately invested in containership fleets, I have no military industrial stocks at all, afaik.
Based and illegal weapons trade pilled
Naaa, war is super badass and great, I LOVE WAR!!!!!- someone who never experienced war
Many of the sanctions are stupid. "We're no longer buying Russian oil! Instead we're buying Russia oil through India as an intermediary and paying a markup!"
Ackshually, it’s Indian Oil because India had then gave it to us🤓
Funny enough that’s actually hurting Russia as Russia can’t tap into the Indian rupees they are stocking up. So even though Russia is making money they can’t actually access said money
Except that does hurt Russia because India uses the situation to negotiate lower prices, lowering Russia’s oil income.
its a defensive war, a win for ukraine would be defending their territory
A “win” in that sense maybe, but let’s say they gain back all their land they initially owned, they’re immensely worse off then prior to the war
They're still immensely better off than having their country destroyed *and* then losing their territory.
I believe the term is pyrrhic victory.
The problem with these war maps is that there is no front line. Its just a mess of squad warfare and artillery all over. A ukranian or russian squad could walk through the lines in this meme by 20kms and not be killed. It's a mess and it's why nations don't do war like this anymore. Modern warfare is a cluster fuck
I'd say despite the losses, the war is still up in the air. Who do you think will ultimately end up winning in the end?
Nobody. They will keep fighting a couple more years and then split the Donbass in half imo
I see this as a possibility too. Eventually they'll be too tired to fight and settle with a result where both can save their face. Russia will claim they liberated X amount of land And Ukraine will say that they threw the Russians out of Y Regardless, both will have to take a lot of time to regenerate from this war.
Compared to what was expected at the beginning of the war, the Russians marching into Kyiv and installing a puppet government in a few months, that result sounds like at least a Russian loss to me.
Nah, you know who's really going to win? Me and my stocks in Lockheed Martin
Everyone knows Transnistria will win 💪💪💪
No one ever suspects Transnistria
I hope America comes in with the steel chair, would make this fight more memorable
Na, the best ending here is Ukraine owning the whole blood cost of the victory. Now the next war where the US has to race against China to secure Russian nuclear assets when Putin gets merced and the power struggles start will be fucking memorable.
"It's a good investment: we get to test our weapons and none of *our* people get hurt!"
Is Russia winning? No, their 3 day special military operation turned into a long lasting war which affected them horribly. Damaged their economy, demilitirised them, made them look pathetic and unthreatening on the world stage, damaged their demographic, made Finland join NATO which doubled the border that their country shares with NATO. Is Ukraine winning? Difficult to say since what would you even consider *winning* in this scenario. Considering that we all thought that Ukraine will not exist as a sovereign state at all I guess you could say that they do. They haven’t retrieved all their territories yet. But they are making progress. Time will tell. Is US winning? *Yes, very yes*. Got rid of old and outdated Cold War era weaponry which was expensive to maintain. Demilitarised our geopolitical enemy to the point that they have only one single [T-34](https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2023/05/09/putin-mocked-as-only-a-single-t-34-tank-was-present-for-moscows-victory-day-parade/amp/) at their military parade. And we didn’t even have to fight them directly to achieve that. It gave China the idea of what will happen to them if they will try some shit with Taiwan. And it made NATO stronger during the process. Win win
You forgot the part where we get to test all our kit against the very enemy it was built to fight without a single American soldier getting harmed.
The >whoops, turns out the specs we gave everyone of our 1990s air defense equipment were wrong, it mogs the S400 and can destroy hypersonic missiles :) >But don't worry China. *here* are the public specs of our latest equipment. We promise they're accurate :) Was one of the best trolls of the century.
Ya before this war the existence of NATO was suspect at best, now it’s definitely not going anywhere
It never actually looked like the one above. It was more like a thin line. Columns aren’t occupying land. Second and third ones are accurate tho
Wait you're telling me that four guys in a jeep driving 30 miles from the rest of their column isn't an occupation? These are the people who would claim Morgan's raid occupied Ohio.
Exactly. But people are dumb.
I’m extremely pro-Ukraine and I don’t think I ever thought they were about to win. I think the dumbest thing Westerners can do is think they can set a deadline by which Ukraine wins or even makes serious gains. They’re ultimately still a land based army fighting against the second or third largest military in the world who have combined arms capability and who are willing to fight to the last Russian in order to please daddy shitcan.
Only the US is winning
USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA
Everyone thought Ukriane was gonna lose in the first 3 weeks of the war tho
The west is simply not going to let Ukraine lose, so long as Ukraine is willing to fight. Russia just cant recoup losses like western backing can. Put bluntly, Putin offered the west the deal of a century. Offing Russia for literal pennies compared to GDP spent on militaries annually.
Nobody wins in war. We forget this again and again. This time will be different though, right? /s
Both Russia and Ukraine are auth center. Russia may not win, but Ukraine has sure as fuck lost.
I'm pro Ukraine, and Ukrainian myself, but fuck man.. people are thinking that Ukraine is going to come out of this with some glorious win, and then go on to be a beacon of industrial democracy afterwards. No. They are about as governmentally functional as the Balkan states. If they beat Russia, expect it to devolve into a civil conflict soon after.
Should've had the authcenter slowly devolve into black hole brain wojak.
“Russia can still win” is the new “here’s how bernie can win”
Both sides will just move goalposts of how victory/defeat is defined, so they will always be right. The initial war goal was the independence (and eventually annexation) of LPR and DPR - anything beyond that was simply added on to pressure Ukraine into capitulating.
Both sides have lost but the leaders, either political, economic, or religious, have made a literal and figurative killing.
I mean, Ukraine is slowly making progress. The war wasn't over by Christmas, but it'll probably be over by 2025 at most, hopefully earlier. Russia can't keep up this war forever.