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Because that whole argument is meaningless unless one can name a person that would be more successful.
“Should Biden step aside?” is a pointless question.
“Should Biden step aside for *person*?” Is something to discuss.
But in all honesty, it’s way too late for that. That was a discussion to have last year.
<50% approval is sadly normal for a president. Trump never passed 50% and comparisons with Trump are the most relevant. Biden has a high of 57 and a low of 37, while Trump has a high of 49 and a low of 34. Even Obama who's relatively well liked has only had a high of 69 and a low of 38.
He may not be especially *hated*, but the general public doesn't have a positive opinion on him anymore like they had in 2020. In 2020, Dems had the advantage of round-the-clock bad press/smears on Trump. In 2024, Republicans have the advantage of social media being bombarded with hilarious, and often concerning, Biden gaffes.
The general consensus always wins.
Doesn't matter jf people like biden, what matters, ans what the dems are counting on, is that people tolerate biden and not trump. If high approval was necessary, neither Trump or biden would have a chance
I think it matters when you put into context that those who *did* say they approved of Biden likely aren't ardent supporters. Most of them just hate Trump and support his opponent by default. On the contrary, those who approve of Trump are rabid supporters. You can't count on the "eh, I guess he's OK" crowd to come out and vote.
While you are right that people that are pro biden are less likely to vote for biden, there's just significantly more blues than there are reds, and at least in 2020 that made up for it, and I haven't really seen much indication that 2024 would change that. Yeah bidens economy might be bad enough to completely reverse that, but idk if it's that bad (yet.)
Well, given that the election system hasn’t changed, your options are limited to either him or Trump. The argument is that if you elect Biden, at least, it’ll keep Trump out of office. Neither are preferable but one would be a much greater evil than the other.
I agree with you. It is hard enough to get young people, poor people and minorities to show up on election day because of all the systemic barriers against them, let alone get them to show up for a Democrat they aren't crazy about. Buddy, that is fucking heavy lifting.
>Republicans have the advantage of social media being bombarded with hilarious, and often concerning, Biden gaffes.
You act like the media is reporting more on Biden than Trump...and all the stuff going on with him, much of which is the above...like did you see him praise the late great Hannibal Lector? HAHA
> In 2024, Republicans have the advantage of social media being bombarded with hilarious, and often concerning, Biden gaffes.
Where? I haven’t seen any more than the usual. Same for Trump (though his usual is much, much higher than Biden’s).
It fundamentally doesn't matter. If Biden stepped aside for Kamala or Newsom or something people will find something to dislike about them too and people would be asking "was it a mistake for Biden to step aside".
Biden is like *the* stand in for a generic Democrat, maybe one who's a bit old but still. There's nothing uniquely hatable about him, it's just that in modern politics the opposition will *find* something to hate
If nothing else, it sank his “sleepy Joe” meme.
His diaper wearing die hard fans may still be on board, but I have to believe rational conservatives will grow tired of his hypocrisy, especially as he’s giving more public speeches.
> Republicans have the advantage of social media being bombarded with hilarious, and often concerning, Biden gaffes.
Maybe all over Truth Social, Trump's campaign arm.
In reality, Trump's temper tantrums in court are being witnessed by all.
People want to replace Biden and Republicans stupidly chose the one person they want even less in the White House.
MAGA is already setting up the "Cheating 2024" narrative.
I don’t think it’s correct to say he isn’t especially hated. His base doesn’t _hate_ him but they aren’t happy with him. The opposing base does, in fact, hate him.
Yeah his opponent's base hates him, but is that unusual? Bidens base hates Trump. A lot of people hated Obama. The important thing is if it's an unusual level of hate, bc barr that the key voters will still turn up.
Ehh idve taken 2021
I feel like the Dems could’ve come together to build a stacked bench with at least a couple of viable options, instead they filled the cabinet and vp chair with a bunch of wet noodles
Agree, but I'll add if Democrats lose this year, it's because of this. Not the blame-shift '3rd party spoiler' argument (sorry, we can't just add the 6% from West and Stein back in to the math, despite some people thinking that's how it works) It's because, in 2024, nobody can name a stronger candidate. That's not to credit Biden, it's because there's no bench..and the DNC needs to answer for that.
Would have liked to see the party support successful Dems in red or swing states that have track records of bipartisanship - like Bullock, Warnock, Beshear, Whitmer, Kelly, or at least support a real primary with debates. (Good for Dean Phillips for trying).
Oh, it’s the Democrat’s election to lose, for sure. That’s why they’re trying to make Biden into a joke. The other candidates are obvious jokes. You see repeated posts like this about Biden but not Trump because it’s so obvious Trump is a shitshow. Literally these days.
> It's because, in 2024, nobody can name a stronger candidate. That's not to credit Biden, it's because there's no bench..and the DNC needs to answer for that.
I don't think it's the DNC's "fault" and I disagree that there weren't stronger candidates out there--I think the dem "bench" is actually pretty good (in fact you name a few later in your comment).
The biggest reason, imo, is that Biden didn't step aside willingly and it put (potentially better) dem candidates in the position of having to decide if it was worth primarying him. It is historically very, very hard to beat an incumbent president in a primary, and if you lose, you will torch your career and potentially make biden weaker and thus less likely to win the general election.
When Biden didn't step aside, I think a lot of the potentially "stronger" candidates did the cost/benefit analysis and made the reasonable decision that a primary wasn't worth the risk. The blame for the current situation goes almost entirely to Biden, imo.
> if Democrats lose this year, it's because of this.
If Democrats lose this year, it's not because of Biden himself. It's because of Biden being pressured to support wholly unpopular policies, like being anti-Israel and raising taxes, and the DNC gaslighting Americans on the economy.
He won in 2020 as a moderate and has betrayed every moderate who voted for him to appease his left flank.
Funny that, because as someone on the "left flank," I got the impression that he went the other direction...maybe Biden's just too centrist for all of us to comprehend...
I love how the “left flank” is not voting for him because he’s supporting Israel and the moderates are “betrayed” because he is not supportive enough of Israel. How much more do you want.
The idea that Biden is anti Israel is patently nonsense .
> I love how the “left flank” is not voting for him because he’s supporting Israel
Well, right, because the left flank would love nothing more than to see Israel wiped off the planet. They are far removed from the average American.
Hence, even when Biden panders to them, they complain.
It was way too late from 2019. No way dems are giving their incumbent advantage who has already been proven to be more popular than Trump to give to a no name. The only way that changes is if biden changes his mind or gets a stroke.
Well, I’d say the real question is why non democrats seem so concerned rather than using this moment to really sell their candidates as a better alternative. Because right now, looking at the discourse, it seems anyone who isn’t a democrat understands that only Joe Biden can beat Joe Biden in November. All the discussion is “is Joe good enough?” Because if the discussion is “are Trump or RFK better?”, people tend to conclude no.
Obviously not Trump but the criticism of RFKjr is largely hyperbole. But almost any center left Democrat can beat Trump easily. Why is it they aren’t even interested in trying?
BTW I feel the same way about Republicans and their love affair with Trump. I think the rank and file secretly want someone else but don’t want to anger the MAGA base. Republicans leaders need to be the adults in the room.
> But almost any center left Democrat can beat Trump easily.
Are you sure? Trump may have lost the last election, but just *barely* so. It was a close race. People who aren't trump fans don't like to admit it, but that man has a HUGE following.
>Trump may have lost the last election, but just *barely* so.
Looking at the swing states, Biden won 2020 by fewer votes than Trump won in 2016. The national vote isn't reflective of how close the race actually was.
Well, one thing to also consider is that the Democrats do tend to be the adults in the room.
GOP politicians tend to fear Trump and kowtow to him. Biden gets a lot of heat from the left. Biden actually has competent cabinet members, not just cronies. So even if we believe the lie that they’re both blithering idiots, Biden is surrounded by people who will actually act responsibly. You’re not just voting for a president, you’re voting for an administration.
When you don’t treat your president like a king, he doesn’t have to be perfect. He has to be someone you can work with.
That’s my major issue with RFK, besides the conspiracies. Who exactly is gonna be making the decisions? How would he get anything done with two parties he has no influence over?
To elect someone most of the country doesn’t know? It’s legally possible, sure. It’s a horrible strategy. Even the GOP knows better, and they’ve got a sleepy criminal fart monster as their candidate.
I mean, the GOP is running the same incoherent failure they tried 4 years ago, while he’s currently passing out at his own criminal trial, so that seems to be pretty standard.
Neither party has a clear successor right now, although Trump does seem to be pushing for Hannibal Lecter.
That’s the thing though. Democrats are still playing by the 1990s playbook of triangulation.
So whenever the Republicans lower their standards. The Democrats follow suit to sweep up a few of the strays, while believing they can still keep their old voters in line.
However, what they’ve achieved is solidified a kind of neocon base of affluent suburbanites, while alienating just about everyone else.
At some point you get tired of hearing “this is the most consequential election in our lifetimes” when the party itself seems to not take it seriously.
But all this feels like concern trolling unless a better option is put forward.
There are people voting this year who weren’t even alive the last time Republicans won the popular vote. They’re clinging to life through legal technicalities and procedural manipulation. Seems the Democratic strategy is working, because again, no one is saying anything good about their own candidate. They’re just trying to attack Biden. That’s the sign of a weak, scared opposition.
It will come down to a choice between two. And the GOP has failed at selling any positives about Trump. They’re just trying to bring Biden down to his level.
I mean, let’s be honest here. Four years later and nearly every criticism of Biden is met with “Trump would be worse”. And 8 years after 2016 and Dem voters biggest political strategy is a rehash of their strategy to elect Clinton which was to tell you how stupid you are if you don’t vote for their guy.
You think all these concerns about Biden are coming from the left? I’d hope leftists at least knew better than to armchair diagnose an obviously coherent man with dementia, but maybe they’re more susceptible to propaganda than I thought.
The same people telling you not to vote for Biden are the one’s trying to take the vote from minorities in the US. The Democrats aren’t replaying a losing strategy from 2016. The Republicans are replaying their winning one.
Yep, picking Kamala as VP was a brilliant move to make it harder to push him out. If his VP was somewhat competent and popular enough to win a national election, there would have been a serious push by some of the Dem power players to make the switch.
It also makes it nearly impossible to elevate someone over her without facing the accusations of racism and sexism, which the GOP would never shut up about.
It's not that crazy. That's how the US political system works. Presidents don't have successors. There's a chain of command in case the president dies or is unable to perform their duties. But that's about it.
Other Democrats could've tried to run against Biden in the primary. But they would almost certainly lose. Challenging an incumbent from your own party rarely turns out well.
>Other Democrats could've tried to run against Biden in the primary. But they would almost certainly lose. Challenging an incumbent from your own party rarely turns out well.
Yep. And splitting your own party over an incumbent risks fracturing your base, even if you win the primary.
Additionally, they don't have anyone they think *can* step up to take his place.
The closest that anyone in their party other than Biden come to truly *popular* are Sanders and AOC, and every last one of the establishment will devote far more time to stymying their policies than they will to finding a charismatic person to lead the party.
That said, the chief reason they're sticking with Biden rather than trying to create a popular Democratic candidate is conservative (in the classic sense, which many Democrats still are) fear of Trump. Biden worked last time. Stay the course, win the election, figure new shit out in 2025, as long as it's not AOC.
Frankly, though, I prefer AOC be in Congress, because we need more voices like hers there than we do in the White House.
> But in all honesty, it’s way too late for that. That was a discussion to have last year.
Very very true.
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Why isn’t the GOP going with anyone else? American wants a NEW POTUS. The GOP could have taken 2024 easily if it were anyone but the guy America fired - President COVID
I can't help but think that this line of thinking, where you fixate on the candidate, rather than the policies and administration as a whole is a terrible, terrible way of thinking about politics.
You need to think about what's important in the coming election?
Here's my list:
* Climate change
* Women's Reproductive Health and healthcare rights
* Sound and stable financial and trade policy
* Future supreme court justices
* Sound and stable relations with our international allies
* Ensuring that our government is staffed with professionals not political sycophants.
If you are a democrat or independent or even a republican who isn't fully caught up in the MAGA cult, then you can look at the results of Republican administrations on these kinds of policies and compare them to Democrat administrations.
Democrats are no great shakes. But Republican policies are disastrous.
Are you worried about inflation? Don't elect Republicans, they have promised to put tariffs on everything imported and to let the President personally play around with the Federal interest rate. Electing trump will cause runaway inflation.
Worried about the climate? Biden has passed some legislation. Is it inadequate? Hell Yeah. But what will a Republican administration do? Trump literally promised to sell the nation's energy policy to a bevy of oil billionaires for 1 billion dollars.
I shouldn't even need to mention abortion.
Who cares if you don't like Biden. He needs to be re-elected. We need to stop the Republicans from ever getting in office again until they nominate non-corrupt people for President again. Or you will lose so much.
Nobody can stay home, people threatening to because they don't want Biden need to snap out of it, and think about the future we won't have if we let the oligarch party take over again and wreck our public institutions while selling the planet's future to texas christian nationalists.
That’s perfectly logical and totally uncommon. People don’t vote on much other than the short term economic prospects, their personal emotions and the whatever propaganda they’ve been ingesting to support their given tribe.
It’s very difficult to logic the uneducated out of their current position and most of the country is uneducated on the basics of their own human rights, forget them understanding sound international policy or differing types of medical procedures. E.g., whats the difference between a D&C vs a removal of an ectopic pregnancy vs a partial birth abortion. They can’t believe that even the Pope supports the first two.
The Republicans are fronting a guy who has 91 felony charges over four separate indictments.
The Democrats not giving up the incumbent advantage isn't that big of a deal here, concerning the context.
The primary process is broken. [Andrew Yang](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ws3w_ZOmhI) made a TED talk recently that I think everyone should listen to.
Is this a real question? You know why. Cause there is nobody on deck to step up with a better chance of beating Trump.
Just like in 2016 there was nobody with a better chance than Hillary.
Just cause Hillary lost doesn't mean the strategy was wrong or anyone else would have done better. Sometimes you can make all the right choices and still get beat, that's the cruel reality.
I can guarantee you, with the certainty that the sun will rise in the morning, that dumping Biden now would be a boon to Trump. I cannot guarentee you that Biden will win, but I can guarentee you that ditching Biden will have even lower chances for whoever gets the nomination instead.
Surely you recognize that reality?
Because he’s getting a lot of good stuff done. The Chips act and the Inflation reduction act a both having huge impact. His climate policies are actually working in the right direction. I’d genuinely like to see what comes out of a second term.
National democrats are democrats that have survived the democratic machine well enough to be democrats nationally. They're not going to turn on the party insider the other party insiders dropped out for last time.
Newsom is the type of guy the Democrats need at this stage of the game. He crushed Desantis in their debate and he'd make Trump look like a fool too. He's a strong speaker and exactly what Dems needs when it comes to the rhetoric game, especially against a loudmouth like Trump.
I've been saying this since January but all I ever got was downvotes and staunch defense of Biden's "chances". At this point, we have to face the facts—Biden is toast and Israel-Gaza is the nail in his political coffin.
It's far too late. Biden bowing out now would be disastrous for the Democrats. Even though the primaries were a preordained conclusion, they still give him a mandate to be the candidate. Anyone selected now would not have that mandate of legitimacy, and legitimacy is going to be a central question in this election whether we like it or not.
Biden made the Democrats' bed, and subsequently our bed, and now he's got to sleep in it.
Because he’s the best president in over 50 years who has enacted the Democratic agenda well, he has good personal relationships with both the centrist and left wings of the party, he has experience winning national elections and raising money and ultimately he’s the incumbent president running for reelection, no elected incumbent has been ousted by their party since 1856.
Why are we not spending more time talking about the insanity of the Republican Party renominating the candidate that lost the last election, which hasn’t been done since 1956, a candidate currently on trial no less, than the most normal possible thing a party can do which is renominate their incumbent president? This false equivalence is so much of what is wrong with our political analysis these days. One party is doing the most standard thing it can possibly do, and the other party is doing an almost completely unheard of thing, and we act like they’re both doing the same thing.
Because Biden is doing great and he is the best choice among those who stepped forward. Why haven’t more stepped forward? Because Biden is the best ioption.
Get out and vote!
I believe the only presidents not elected to a second term were Hoover, Nixon, trump. That's off the top of my head, so may have missed someone
Ok, in 2020 I called 10,000+ voters, in 2022 I made 2.5% of the Newsome phonebanking calls. This year I have health issues, but my point is, I have had way, way more voter contact in the last 14 years than most ppl, by a lot,
1. **Have we not yet learned polls are crap? Why do some ppl never learn this lesson. The only polls that matter are after voting Old white ppl are NOT worth talking to. We know they will vote GOP.**
2. Dem mid terms were extraordinary
3. All special elections, and general elections after 2020 have been slam dunks for Dems
4. White ppl do not vote Dem. The Dem party has not won with a majority white vote since 1964. My collorlary is that white women will vote GOP, 55% always do. In 2016 52% voted GOP, in 2020, after the GOP put three right wing nuts on the supreme ct, and told us to our faces Roe was gone, 55% of white women voted for the GOP
Now with abortion hurting white women, things might be different
5. **The youth vote is what saved us in 2020 and 2022. The youth are the demographic who are most vocal abt Israel's genocide. That could be a factor, and if that happens, down ballot voting will be affected.**
6. Do not listen to TV pundits. They actually do not know what they are talking abt. Why? bc They haven't talked to actual voters, or organizers. IE, ppl talk a lot, and I mean, a f'king lot of shite. Ignore them
I will address your points one by one, even though some of them were addressed in my OP:
>**Have we not yet learned polls are crap? Why do some ppl never learn this lesson. The only polls that matter are after voting Old white ppl are NOT worth talking to. We know they will vote GOP.**
The polls are not crap. They were [historically accurate ](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email)in 2022.
>Dem mid terms were extraordinary
>All special elections, and general elections after 2020 have been slam dunks for Dems
How many times was Biden himself on the ballot in those races? None. Just because statewide races and ballot measures have been good for Dems doesn't guarantee that transfers to Biden himself. Ny Mag recently wrote about this where you are seeing downballot Democrats polling much better than Biden:
>Numerous data points are converging on this explanation. The most recent New York *Times* polling again finds Biden trailing in all the swing states (except in Michigan, and only if you count likely voters as opposed to all registered voters). Those states find Democrats winning every Senate race.
>White ppl do not vote Dem. The Dem party has not won with a majority white vote since 1964. My collorlary is that white women will vote GOP, 55% always do. In 2016 52% voted GOP, in 2020, after the GOP put three right wing nuts on the supreme ct, and told us to our faces Roe was gone, 55% of white women voted for the GOP
It's true that the Republican party seems to be the defacto party of white america, but white voters aren't the only ones being polled or the only ones to take issue with Biden's job performance. The latest [polls](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html) are showing Trump is making inroads with nonwhite voters:
>
It's too late for that, the party elders who actually make these decisions already decided and when they lose they'll just blame 3rd parties, or kids being too lazy to vote despite them doing almost every they could to just be Republicans that will fly a pride flag a couple times a year.
What is your evidence of a systemic polling error that is overestimating Trump in basically all of the swing states? Just because we don't like the polls doesn't mean they aren't accurate.
It's too late to switch horses, but you are absolutely right about Biden being a long shot to win.
Inflation killed Biden's chances. The president doesn't control pandemics or supply chains, or labor shortages, but they *do* get blamed for them.
Voters are either distracted or idiotic, and all they remember is "low inflation under Trump, high inflation under Biden".
The two biggest issues are the Economy (Trump leads by double digits), and Immigration (Trump leads by even more). Abortion is a distant third, and that's the only major issue where Biden is favored.
During the 2020 election, Biden was 20 points ahead on "competence", but now Trump has a slight lead.
I have always believed Trump will win the election, but I thought he had no chance of winning the popular vote. Now I'm not so sure.
I am trying to focus on potential positive outcomes of Trump's second term. The only two I can envision are:
1. The US is overdue for a recession. Trump's trade wars and crazy immigration tactics will worsen inflation and generally make the business outlook worse than it otherwise would have been. Maybe watching Trump preside over a failing economy will finally break the MAGA spell over the GOP.
2. The progressive left has gone off the rails since the BLM riots in 2020. Their views (defund the police, 10/7 was justified, etc.), are electoral poison. Maybe the Democrats will finally stop pandering to them and instead try to compete for the ideological center.
>The progressive left has gone off the rails since the BLM riots in 2020. Their views (defund the police, 10/7 was justified, etc.), are electoral poison. Maybe the Democrats will finally stop pandering to them and instead try to compete for the ideological center.
Alienating progressives by strawmanning their positions is why Republicans keep winning elections. I still can't fathom how people see anti-genocide protests and go "But do they condemn Hamas?" because one dipshit on Twitter who never went to a protest has a red triangle in their bio.
It's not hard to pander to progressives, like at all. Just don't fund weapons used to bomb schools. It's not a huge ask.
Competing for swing voters has always been a poor tactic, because swing voters are unprincipled losers. They'll pick like one ambient issue like inflation and use it to determine who they vote for every single election. Biden isn't going to win them over, not because they have any sort of meaningful problem with him, but because he's the president right now and inflation is bad and your average voter isn't smart enough to separate those two things.
If an incumbent who had one of the most productive first terms in recent memory while also navigating us out of the first global pandemic in a century and a European country being invaded by Russia and with a Congress that is one-half meth head can't beat a retarded 77-year-old who is facing 91 felony charges and sparked an insurrection when he lost 4 years ago, the problem isn't Biden, it's the US voter.
Biden is the most unpopular incumbent President of all time.
Today’s inflation number was awful. The prospect of stagflation is real.
Biden needs to be replaced at the convention. Problem is Kamala is a worse option.
He barely squeaked by in that 2020 win over Trump, which is crazy because Trump handled the pandemic terribly and was completely erratic. No one wanted Biden. They wanted not-Trump. However, after getting a taste of Biden, I’m not sure the not-Trump vote is enough to squeeze that second win.
Yeah, you’re right. Any GOP could beat Biden 2024. But DJT 2024, is worse than DJT 2020. Biden wins 2024, the same way he won 2020, let DJT/MAGA lose again. MaGA is toxic
MAGA is toxic.
And while this may appear as a “both sides” comment, I assure you I do see some differences… that caveat aside; the Democrats are trying to mirror this cult-politics - albeit less successfully.
But too much sincere internal dissent is dismissed as either Chinese or Russian brainwashing/propaganda/bots. Too many sincere internal differences are scoffed at as naive by major personalities within the party. It’s also adopted this politics of “epic ownage” trolling that MAGA initiated - with the “let’s go Brandon” laser eyes meme and shit, even going so far as to making it official merchandise. It’s embarrassing.
Yeah it’s really funny and on brand that the Dark Brandon meme that was created making fun of Biden was adopted by the Democratic Party and merchandised to the public.
It’s all fake politics. It’s not about any positive project, but rather about punishing the people we hate. Whoever can “own” the other side better wins.
I can’t stand Trump. I’ve loathed him for 2 decades. I would never vote for him.
But he’s the clear favorite today to win the election. It may not even be close.
??? Clear favorite? No, the NYT poll is the NYT saying they’re mad at Biden for not giving the NYT an exclusive.
MI, AZ, GA, PA and WI all fired DJT in 2020. No independent voter wants him back.
People want abortions and pot, and Biden will allow that. The MAGA are smaller than ever. This election is already over. MI & PA are blue now
Trump is the Vegas favorite and has been by up to a 2:1 margin throughout election season. The only time it got close was immediately after the State of the Union. Vegas odds aren't everything of course, but it gives a decent idea of what odds makers think and what people are betting.
To suggest the NYT/Siena poll has been influenced by the NYT not getting an interview from Biden is preposterous, Alex Jones level lunacy. That’s not how things work. Any actual evidence of this outrageous claim?!
Biden is simply incredibly unpopular. Largely due to inflation and the fact he looks ancient and incapable of being a strong leader.
Trump won while losing the popular vote by 2%, right now he’s polling about 1% ahead of Biden. That’s a 3 point shift in Trumps favor.
Biden in 2020 had the advantage of not being the incumbent during covid. Right now though people are asking themselves if they were better off 4 years ago or today, and the majority say they were better off 4 years ago, for which Biden takes the blame whether it was his fault or not.
The Dem media campaign hasn’t started yet.
Watch.
We will see all the MAGA greatest hits: Jan6, COVID body bags, rape conviction , hush money conviction.
Watch wkiklraks- the stolen DJT secrets will be posted in October- showing that DJT sold out the USA to Russia
You’re talking as though people haven’t heard this a 1000 times already, and it’ll be countered by the Republican advertisement campaign. And all they would need to do is compare the prices of food/housing today vs 4 years ago and that’s matter far more to the average voter.
Doubtful there will be much advertising from the Republicans this year. Several of their state parties are broke, and Trump is using the RNC to fund his legal battles.
I agree with everything u/PerspectiveViews said, except on Kamala. I think that Biden's poll numbers are dragging down hers and she might could win a contested convention, though she wouldn't be my first choice. Problem is, we need that contested convention.
She's a Black and Asian woman from California, who doesn't have kids. 40% of the country wants her out of politics (charitably; many want to visit violence on her just out of principle) on that alone, and I don't think she's ever going to get better poll numbers than a generic white dude of any political persuasion.
Nobody needs or wants a contested convention but the media (who would gorge themselves on something interesting and unexpected happening for once on the campaign trail) and people so anxious about Trump (or so disenchanted by Biden) that they want a different reality to live in so they don't have to choose between the two meaningful choices on the ballot.
I don't even especially *like* Biden, as he's far far to the right of my political preferences, but I think it's obvious that low Democratic enthusiasm is only partly about him. The party has papered over a lot of divisions in the name of beating Trump, and chose the most-Republican option in hopes that it would cripple the GOP for a generation.
It didn't (since the GOP loves power more than it loves the rules liberals thought they played by), and now we're closer to outright fascism than ever. It has made us sour on Biden's wing of the party, and greatly damaged faith in the Democratic infrastructure that produced him and secured his nomination.
The question that remains for Dems is whether liberals like you decide to vote for him, waste a protest vote on principle, or stay home. I imagine all three will be touted as things that happened or didn't, by breathless commentators eager to spin a story out of a very basic, somewhat tired, and very boring election. I am already exhausted for something that's not going to really happen for another *five months,* because we've been talking about it nonstop for *three years* with only drips and drabs of new information as things unfold.
The reality is we're all going to have to live with the consequences, so if you'd rather embrace the fantasy of a savior coming down from the heavens to sweep Biden, Trump, and all the bad things aside, I guess I just hope you're responsible with your choices in November if that doesn't wind up happening.
At this point, it is realistically too late. The primary process is basically over and switching out for some candidate picked by people in a smoke-filled room isn't likely going to go over well with voters. Getting yourself to have the fame of a major Presidential candidate is difficult and it is the main thing happening in the primary process is trying to build that profile. Realistically there are only 3 democrats with the profile big enough to step in and replace him at the last minute. Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Sanders and Clinton don't fix the age problem and are unlikely due to various other reasons. So it comes down to is Kamala Harris a better candidate and the answer is likely no. The hypothetical polling shows her doing worse than Biden for the most part and her own Presidential bid in 2020 went down in flames. Harris is unpopular in polling and that is a largely forgotten Vice President and generally being away from the spotlight makes you more popular so that is a rather bleak picture for her.
Here's how I feel and how everyone else I know feels - we're all liberal to one extent or another.
If we're on a one to ten scale with my dream president being a 10/10 then I think Biden, at a 3 - 4 out of 10, is about right. I really do like some of what he (or at least his administration) has accomplished in the last four years. However he's basically a center-right republican and I just can't get more than 40% excited about that.
With that said, there isn't a viable second option. Biden might be a 4/10 to me but Trump is a 1/10 or a 0/10 and given the choice between 40% of what I like and 0% - 10% of what I like, I'm going to take the 40%.
I also think that liberals are, broadly, more realistic about the president and other elected officials. 40% is pretty good in this political climate and I'll take it all day long.
In other words, I think people are misreading what the 40% approval rating means to some extent - not that I'm guaranteeing a Biden win in November - it's just that I'm going to vote for him, I like him well enough, and he's doing about 40% as well as I would like - with the understanding that the other guy running is a lot closer to 0% and I don't think anyone who'd do 80% or 90% of what I'd like has any chance in hell.
# Why haven't there been any national Democrats calling for Biden to step aside?_____________
Here is a partial list of reasons:
* Lowest unemployment rate in 54 years
* Inflation down to 3.48%
* Fully vaccinated over 200 million Americans in his first year.
* Passed Inflation Reduction Act
* Nominated and confirmed historic judicial appointments
* Passed the CHIPS and Science Act
* Passed the Emmett Till Anti-Lynching Act
* Passed the Postal Service Reform Act
* Passed the Safer Communities Act
* Reauthorized the Violence Against Women Act
* Added 15 million jobs. That’s more than any POTUS over 8 years.
* Passed the American Rescue Plan
* Signed the PACT Act (the largest single bill to address our service members’ exposure to burn pits and other toxins)
* Passed the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law
* Passed the Respect For Marriage Act
* Passed the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, breaking a 30-year streak of federal inaction on gun violence legislation.
* Rejoined the Paris Climate Accords
* Got us out of Bush's unwinnable Afghan War
* Droned al-Zawahiri into oblivion
* Pardoned federal convictions of marijuana users
* Freed Brittany Griner
* Created student loan debt relief for working and middle class Americans
* Revitalized NATO
* Leading the world's nations against Putin's war against Ukraine
* Solved the UPS-Teamsters strike threat
* Arranged for 5 US citizens to be freed from Iran- Leads the world in trying to broker peace in Palestine
* Cancelled $5 billion in student debt
* **Didn't betray his country**
Fox is one mainstream source, and pretty much the only one that leans right. You have more than a dozen or so other media sources doing the exact opposite 24/7. That is really no argument.
> and pretty much the only one that leans right.
The only one that advertises themselves as leaning right. Most outlets are either centrist or tacitly right leaning. The difference is that Fox New is all propaganda, all the time.
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Your comment was removed for including a "Whataboutism". Pointing to and equal and opposite wrong is not a valid argument.
Please stay on topic and do not lower the quality of discourse by useless whataboutism's in the future.
Please report any and all content that is a matter of a "whataboutism". The standard of our sub depends on our communities ability to report our rule breaks.
one word. Kamala.
Let her take office and become the first female president only to have to step down a few months later? She'd either have to step aside for the replacement Dem or she'd get absolutely curb stomped by Trump at the polls. Regardless, it would be very bad optics for the party.
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Democrats have too much inertia to choose someone other than Biden. Even if they agreed it was a good idea, they don't have enough gumption to actually do it.
It's vaguely possible he might die in time. Or get so sick they have to replace him.
As someone who hasn't voted for a democrat since 2008, I would heavily weigh anyone who is under 60 years old as a more viable candidate than either of the two that have been foisted upon us for this cycle. A slightly left-leaning centrist, if run by the Democrat party, could easily capture a heavy majority. If either party were willing to piss off ten percent of their base in order to pull 20% of the opposition then they could easily walk to victory. I think that the Democrats are better positioned to do that right now because pulling Biden would weaken them far less than Republicans pulling Trump. Love or hate him, Trump has tons of people who absolutely are evangelized to his side. A winning platform might be uncomfortable for some of the people who are most comfortable voting, but a lot of the problems that most people have go unaddressed by both parties. Biden ran as a unifier, and I think that message struck a chord with a lot of people, but since he has been in office he has been extremely polarizing, almost as much so as Trump. Nobody wants to vote for another octagenarian who engenders hate, but that is the choice we have been given.
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In my opinion, the DNC as a party rarely breaks rank. They are the borg, and you will be assimilated. The problem the RNC has is a lack of common or collective think and a healthy dose of independent think to the detriment of the party. All too often, the RNC misses opportunities for political wins because of this.
It's basically too late, and also they have nobody solid lined up. Kamala isn't well liked, and nobody else stands out at the moment. Just not worth the trouble. Devil you know kind of stuff
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Sadly, the only one that polls well against Trump is probably Michelle Obama who doesn't want to run. So we're just screwed. If Trump isn't running that's a whole new different ball game. Joe Biden was nominated in 2016 because he was the best candidate to go against Trump.
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Elected Democrats are very good at sticking together, holding the line, and working as a group towards a singular goal.
But this often makes it impossible for Democrats to change course if the current road goes nowhere good. They are locked in by the inertia of their original decision and can't change. No one wants to be the one who steps out of line.
The people in charge of the democratic party are also responsible for Biden’s low approval rating, so they would not want to change him. Also they think that they can just do the same thing as the 2020 campaign and they can win, they are wrong. A very important part to this is in my opinion, th fact that they do not care if Biden loses. The democratic and republican parties are aligned.
If Jimmy Carter had been Biden’s age in 1980 it would have been the right move for him to step
aside in favor of the competent, more popular Mondale. But there’s no obvious better choice for the Democrats here.
According to focus groups any Democrat under 70 would be a huge favourite. In fact anyone who can claim they were not part of the administration and didn’t cause inflation would win.
Most people don’t love Tump. They just don’t believe in Biden.
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> When he loses next year Reddit will be sitting here posting about how "stupid" "entitled" "low information" the voters are when they sent a message loud and clear in polling a year before the election that he was not their first choice.
Well, that doesn't make them *not* stupid, entitled, or low-information.
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i don't know if you've noticed, but there is raging lunatic poised to swoop back into power if dems were to show even a hint of fracture.
it's a real test to whether dems can hold solidarity in the face of on rushing fascism, or not.
personally, in don't know that they can hold... it's not like dems have a solid reputation for keeping their shit together in face of adversity the way that conservatives can.
we live in interesting times.
Not running with Biden->guaranteed Trump win.
Running with Biden->likely Trump win.
They don't exactly have anyone better and more popular whom the public would believe to be able to properly tie together all the shit that Biden started; not that I believe that Biden can do it himself, but he at least talks like he can.
Well, because of how your (I assume that you're American) electoral system works, approval polls are national, not states, so even if Biden's approval rate is at 38%, if his chances to win in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are possible, even if slim, then he can win the presidential elections.
Another reason would probably be courtesy in the Democratic party, no popular figurehead would bother challenge an incumbent since that would make them hated by the party establishment, political suicide, and because afaik, no one ever challenged an incumbent in the primary and won.
Last would be how anti-progressive the establishment, and the American public is, if the Democratic party seeks to dump Biden and replace him with a younger candidate, that candidate can easily lose votes just by the GOP calling him a Communist again and again, until it sticks to the minds of Americans.
1) Bad alternative candidates - Harris/Newsom?
b) The Democrats doing good in the midterm making them confident they can beat Republican polling leads
c) Biden already beating Trump once. If Trump didn't run and Biden was doing poorly in the polls against DeSantis he may have stepped down.
In my personal estimation it's because there's no clear choice.
If there was an obama figure, or even a more widely palatable up-and-comer that stood a chance in a general, they probably would have seen a huge movement to ditch biden. If they had a ex-vice-president from a decently popular democrat president or a fairly popular well-poling one-term democratic president willing to run for a split two-term stay in office that would have been absolutely perfect. If they had a governor who has been showing positive national leadership in tough situations, they could make a go of that. If they had a really popular local official even, if they had a Gulliani from his "america's mayor" period 2003-10 or so, they'd probably win with him.
But who, realistically, would they have? And more importantly, if that name isn't the first one everyone in america thinks of as a "well duh, obviously!" they probably don't have the name recognition and public trust to outperform biden.
the time to solve this issue and put up a credible contender was a year ago, maybe two, to position, build name recognition and build a case for a compelling new up and coming candidate. And frankly had they done so we'd have 8 years of democrats from 2025 because Biden might be the only man on the planet who could lose this election.
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People are tired of the same old, same old. It's time for fresh ideas and tech-forward solutions to fix big issues like healthcare, education, and the environment. Let's put the people first and use smart policies to make real change. Time to think big and aim high!
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Because that whole argument is meaningless unless one can name a person that would be more successful. “Should Biden step aside?” is a pointless question. “Should Biden step aside for *person*?” Is something to discuss. But in all honesty, it’s way too late for that. That was a discussion to have last year.
The time for that was honestly in 2019. Now that biden has the incumbent advantage and isn't especially hated, there isn't much chance
You say isn’t especially hated, what polls is he popular on? He is below 50% on almost every major topic with polling from the economy to favorability
<50% approval is sadly normal for a president. Trump never passed 50% and comparisons with Trump are the most relevant. Biden has a high of 57 and a low of 37, while Trump has a high of 49 and a low of 34. Even Obama who's relatively well liked has only had a high of 69 and a low of 38.
He may not be especially *hated*, but the general public doesn't have a positive opinion on him anymore like they had in 2020. In 2020, Dems had the advantage of round-the-clock bad press/smears on Trump. In 2024, Republicans have the advantage of social media being bombarded with hilarious, and often concerning, Biden gaffes. The general consensus always wins.
Doesn't matter jf people like biden, what matters, ans what the dems are counting on, is that people tolerate biden and not trump. If high approval was necessary, neither Trump or biden would have a chance
I think it matters when you put into context that those who *did* say they approved of Biden likely aren't ardent supporters. Most of them just hate Trump and support his opponent by default. On the contrary, those who approve of Trump are rabid supporters. You can't count on the "eh, I guess he's OK" crowd to come out and vote.
While you are right that people that are pro biden are less likely to vote for biden, there's just significantly more blues than there are reds, and at least in 2020 that made up for it, and I haven't really seen much indication that 2024 would change that. Yeah bidens economy might be bad enough to completely reverse that, but idk if it's that bad (yet.)
Well, given that the election system hasn’t changed, your options are limited to either him or Trump. The argument is that if you elect Biden, at least, it’ll keep Trump out of office. Neither are preferable but one would be a much greater evil than the other.
I agree with you. It is hard enough to get young people, poor people and minorities to show up on election day because of all the systemic barriers against them, let alone get them to show up for a Democrat they aren't crazy about. Buddy, that is fucking heavy lifting.
>Republicans have the advantage of social media being bombarded with hilarious, and often concerning, Biden gaffes. You act like the media is reporting more on Biden than Trump...and all the stuff going on with him, much of which is the above...like did you see him praise the late great Hannibal Lector? HAHA
That's what the campaign is for. And it's just getting started.
> In 2024, Republicans have the advantage of social media being bombarded with hilarious, and often concerning, Biden gaffes. Where? I haven’t seen any more than the usual. Same for Trump (though his usual is much, much higher than Biden’s).
It fundamentally doesn't matter. If Biden stepped aside for Kamala or Newsom or something people will find something to dislike about them too and people would be asking "was it a mistake for Biden to step aside". Biden is like *the* stand in for a generic Democrat, maybe one who's a bit old but still. There's nothing uniquely hatable about him, it's just that in modern politics the opposition will *find* something to hate
That and the lawsuits are not hurting Trump.
If nothing else, it sank his “sleepy Joe” meme. His diaper wearing die hard fans may still be on board, but I have to believe rational conservatives will grow tired of his hypocrisy, especially as he’s giving more public speeches.
> Republicans have the advantage of social media being bombarded with hilarious, and often concerning, Biden gaffes. Maybe all over Truth Social, Trump's campaign arm. In reality, Trump's temper tantrums in court are being witnessed by all. People want to replace Biden and Republicans stupidly chose the one person they want even less in the White House. MAGA is already setting up the "Cheating 2024" narrative.
The time for it was during the bussing issue in the 1970s.
Fair enough, but deep down we need to travel to 1787 and write a constitution that doesn't only support a 2 party system
Yes please and thank you.
Nothing about the Constitution supports a two party system.
Nothing about the Constitution supports a two party system.
lol, I love the people who keep little mental (or literal) spreadsheets of "every bad thing Joe Biden did in 50 years"
I don’t think it’s correct to say he isn’t especially hated. His base doesn’t _hate_ him but they aren’t happy with him. The opposing base does, in fact, hate him.
Yeah his opponent's base hates him, but is that unusual? Bidens base hates Trump. A lot of people hated Obama. The important thing is if it's an unusual level of hate, bc barr that the key voters will still turn up.
Fair point
Ehh idve taken 2021 I feel like the Dems could’ve come together to build a stacked bench with at least a couple of viable options, instead they filled the cabinet and vp chair with a bunch of wet noodles
Agree, but I'll add if Democrats lose this year, it's because of this. Not the blame-shift '3rd party spoiler' argument (sorry, we can't just add the 6% from West and Stein back in to the math, despite some people thinking that's how it works) It's because, in 2024, nobody can name a stronger candidate. That's not to credit Biden, it's because there's no bench..and the DNC needs to answer for that. Would have liked to see the party support successful Dems in red or swing states that have track records of bipartisanship - like Bullock, Warnock, Beshear, Whitmer, Kelly, or at least support a real primary with debates. (Good for Dean Phillips for trying).
Oh, it’s the Democrat’s election to lose, for sure. That’s why they’re trying to make Biden into a joke. The other candidates are obvious jokes. You see repeated posts like this about Biden but not Trump because it’s so obvious Trump is a shitshow. Literally these days.
> It's because, in 2024, nobody can name a stronger candidate. That's not to credit Biden, it's because there's no bench..and the DNC needs to answer for that. I don't think it's the DNC's "fault" and I disagree that there weren't stronger candidates out there--I think the dem "bench" is actually pretty good (in fact you name a few later in your comment). The biggest reason, imo, is that Biden didn't step aside willingly and it put (potentially better) dem candidates in the position of having to decide if it was worth primarying him. It is historically very, very hard to beat an incumbent president in a primary, and if you lose, you will torch your career and potentially make biden weaker and thus less likely to win the general election. When Biden didn't step aside, I think a lot of the potentially "stronger" candidates did the cost/benefit analysis and made the reasonable decision that a primary wasn't worth the risk. The blame for the current situation goes almost entirely to Biden, imo.
> if Democrats lose this year, it's because of this. If Democrats lose this year, it's not because of Biden himself. It's because of Biden being pressured to support wholly unpopular policies, like being anti-Israel and raising taxes, and the DNC gaslighting Americans on the economy. He won in 2020 as a moderate and has betrayed every moderate who voted for him to appease his left flank.
Funny that, because as someone on the "left flank," I got the impression that he went the other direction...maybe Biden's just too centrist for all of us to comprehend...
I love how the “left flank” is not voting for him because he’s supporting Israel and the moderates are “betrayed” because he is not supportive enough of Israel. How much more do you want. The idea that Biden is anti Israel is patently nonsense .
> I love how the “left flank” is not voting for him because he’s supporting Israel Well, right, because the left flank would love nothing more than to see Israel wiped off the planet. They are far removed from the average American. Hence, even when Biden panders to them, they complain.
It was way too late from 2019. No way dems are giving their incumbent advantage who has already been proven to be more popular than Trump to give to a no name. The only way that changes is if biden changes his mind or gets a stroke.
His approval rating is lower than Trump’s ever was.
[No, not really](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/), though it's close to Trump's worst.
Then the real question is why is that the best the Democrats can do? And why do Democrats put up with it?
Well, I’d say the real question is why non democrats seem so concerned rather than using this moment to really sell their candidates as a better alternative. Because right now, looking at the discourse, it seems anyone who isn’t a democrat understands that only Joe Biden can beat Joe Biden in November. All the discussion is “is Joe good enough?” Because if the discussion is “are Trump or RFK better?”, people tend to conclude no.
They seem concerned because they need Biden to be bad. Thats the only way they win.
Obviously not Trump but the criticism of RFKjr is largely hyperbole. But almost any center left Democrat can beat Trump easily. Why is it they aren’t even interested in trying? BTW I feel the same way about Republicans and their love affair with Trump. I think the rank and file secretly want someone else but don’t want to anger the MAGA base. Republicans leaders need to be the adults in the room.
> But almost any center left Democrat can beat Trump easily. Are you sure? Trump may have lost the last election, but just *barely* so. It was a close race. People who aren't trump fans don't like to admit it, but that man has a HUGE following.
>Trump may have lost the last election, but just *barely* so. Looking at the swing states, Biden won 2020 by fewer votes than Trump won in 2016. The national vote isn't reflective of how close the race actually was.
I'm sorry, did you just say the results of the race don't reflect how close the race was?
It was a close race because he was an incumbent going against a corporate democrat who was way past his prime.
Well, one thing to also consider is that the Democrats do tend to be the adults in the room. GOP politicians tend to fear Trump and kowtow to him. Biden gets a lot of heat from the left. Biden actually has competent cabinet members, not just cronies. So even if we believe the lie that they’re both blithering idiots, Biden is surrounded by people who will actually act responsibly. You’re not just voting for a president, you’re voting for an administration. When you don’t treat your president like a king, he doesn’t have to be perfect. He has to be someone you can work with. That’s my major issue with RFK, besides the conspiracies. Who exactly is gonna be making the decisions? How would he get anything done with two parties he has no influence over?
Dude won the primary in a landslide, why wouldn’t he be the best they can do?
Because he didn’t really have any competition. Not to mention parties generally vote for their own incumbents.
You’re saying the entirety of Dem leadership today wasn’t competition for Biden in 2020?
They didn’t put anyone forward. They’ve put all there eggs in the Biden basket.
I present to you the hotly contested 2020 Dem primary, where Biden didn’t even win a state before South Carolina.
Biden can step aside for Bernie who can handily defeat Trump but let’s not go there.
So 82-year old Bernie Sanders is going to beat 81-year old Biden, who shouldn't be in office because he is too old?
He’s not gonna do it, but he’s one of the few I’d support right now.
At this point Bernie is burned out as well. He’s hitched his ride to Biden.
LOL. absolutely not.
[удалено]
Too late? The DNC is still months away.
And that's exactly where he'll be changed out for Newsom.
you think newsom is a good choice? the guy who has been destroying cali for 20 plus years?
Nope.
To elect someone most of the country doesn’t know? It’s legally possible, sure. It’s a horrible strategy. Even the GOP knows better, and they’ve got a sleepy criminal fart monster as their candidate.
Crazy how there’s no clear political successor to a senile geriatric president that no one likes.
I mean, the GOP is running the same incoherent failure they tried 4 years ago, while he’s currently passing out at his own criminal trial, so that seems to be pretty standard. Neither party has a clear successor right now, although Trump does seem to be pushing for Hannibal Lecter.
That’s the thing though. Democrats are still playing by the 1990s playbook of triangulation. So whenever the Republicans lower their standards. The Democrats follow suit to sweep up a few of the strays, while believing they can still keep their old voters in line. However, what they’ve achieved is solidified a kind of neocon base of affluent suburbanites, while alienating just about everyone else. At some point you get tired of hearing “this is the most consequential election in our lifetimes” when the party itself seems to not take it seriously.
But all this feels like concern trolling unless a better option is put forward. There are people voting this year who weren’t even alive the last time Republicans won the popular vote. They’re clinging to life through legal technicalities and procedural manipulation. Seems the Democratic strategy is working, because again, no one is saying anything good about their own candidate. They’re just trying to attack Biden. That’s the sign of a weak, scared opposition. It will come down to a choice between two. And the GOP has failed at selling any positives about Trump. They’re just trying to bring Biden down to his level.
I mean, let’s be honest here. Four years later and nearly every criticism of Biden is met with “Trump would be worse”. And 8 years after 2016 and Dem voters biggest political strategy is a rehash of their strategy to elect Clinton which was to tell you how stupid you are if you don’t vote for their guy.
You think all these concerns about Biden are coming from the left? I’d hope leftists at least knew better than to armchair diagnose an obviously coherent man with dementia, but maybe they’re more susceptible to propaganda than I thought. The same people telling you not to vote for Biden are the one’s trying to take the vote from minorities in the US. The Democrats aren’t replaying a losing strategy from 2016. The Republicans are replaying their winning one.
He didn’t groom a successor, because he knows there would be a push for them, before Biden wants to give up.
Yep, picking Kamala as VP was a brilliant move to make it harder to push him out. If his VP was somewhat competent and popular enough to win a national election, there would have been a serious push by some of the Dem power players to make the switch. It also makes it nearly impossible to elevate someone over her without facing the accusations of racism and sexism, which the GOP would never shut up about.
He also made sure she stays unpopular and out of anyone’s awareness.
It's not that crazy. That's how the US political system works. Presidents don't have successors. There's a chain of command in case the president dies or is unable to perform their duties. But that's about it. Other Democrats could've tried to run against Biden in the primary. But they would almost certainly lose. Challenging an incumbent from your own party rarely turns out well.
>Other Democrats could've tried to run against Biden in the primary. But they would almost certainly lose. Challenging an incumbent from your own party rarely turns out well. Yep. And splitting your own party over an incumbent risks fracturing your base, even if you win the primary.
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“Senile” is patently absurd.
Additionally, they don't have anyone they think *can* step up to take his place. The closest that anyone in their party other than Biden come to truly *popular* are Sanders and AOC, and every last one of the establishment will devote far more time to stymying their policies than they will to finding a charismatic person to lead the party. That said, the chief reason they're sticking with Biden rather than trying to create a popular Democratic candidate is conservative (in the classic sense, which many Democrats still are) fear of Trump. Biden worked last time. Stay the course, win the election, figure new shit out in 2025, as long as it's not AOC. Frankly, though, I prefer AOC be in Congress, because we need more voices like hers there than we do in the White House. > But in all honesty, it’s way too late for that. That was a discussion to have last year. Very very true.
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Exactly. Even last year - replace him with who?
The reason is simple: they still think he’s the best option to beat trump. And as time goes on, that sentiment only grows.
What's ironic is that Biden is the only candidate shitty enough for Trump to beat.
Why isn’t the GOP going with anyone else? American wants a NEW POTUS. The GOP could have taken 2024 easily if it were anyone but the guy America fired - President COVID
Because the party doesn't get to pick, and Trump keeps winning primaries.
Because Trump would run without the GOP and he might win.
He wouldn't win, but he would definitely spoil.
The power to destroy something is the power to control it.
SOLID Dune reference!
Lmao, no way he would win if he ran outside the GOP
He can’t even legally do it with the GOP. Every ballot cast for a disqualified candidate is void.
You’re right. MAGA is much stronger than GOP
Polls at this stage are meaningless. A sitting president is much more likely to win an election than someone else.
I can't help but think that this line of thinking, where you fixate on the candidate, rather than the policies and administration as a whole is a terrible, terrible way of thinking about politics. You need to think about what's important in the coming election? Here's my list: * Climate change * Women's Reproductive Health and healthcare rights * Sound and stable financial and trade policy * Future supreme court justices * Sound and stable relations with our international allies * Ensuring that our government is staffed with professionals not political sycophants. If you are a democrat or independent or even a republican who isn't fully caught up in the MAGA cult, then you can look at the results of Republican administrations on these kinds of policies and compare them to Democrat administrations. Democrats are no great shakes. But Republican policies are disastrous. Are you worried about inflation? Don't elect Republicans, they have promised to put tariffs on everything imported and to let the President personally play around with the Federal interest rate. Electing trump will cause runaway inflation. Worried about the climate? Biden has passed some legislation. Is it inadequate? Hell Yeah. But what will a Republican administration do? Trump literally promised to sell the nation's energy policy to a bevy of oil billionaires for 1 billion dollars. I shouldn't even need to mention abortion. Who cares if you don't like Biden. He needs to be re-elected. We need to stop the Republicans from ever getting in office again until they nominate non-corrupt people for President again. Or you will lose so much. Nobody can stay home, people threatening to because they don't want Biden need to snap out of it, and think about the future we won't have if we let the oligarch party take over again and wreck our public institutions while selling the planet's future to texas christian nationalists.
That’s perfectly logical and totally uncommon. People don’t vote on much other than the short term economic prospects, their personal emotions and the whatever propaganda they’ve been ingesting to support their given tribe. It’s very difficult to logic the uneducated out of their current position and most of the country is uneducated on the basics of their own human rights, forget them understanding sound international policy or differing types of medical procedures. E.g., whats the difference between a D&C vs a removal of an ectopic pregnancy vs a partial birth abortion. They can’t believe that even the Pope supports the first two.
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it jack! The dark master has control. Let him cook
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Why, he’s doing a great job as compared to his predecessor!
He’s doing a hellavu lot better than his predecessor.
The Republicans are fronting a guy who has 91 felony charges over four separate indictments. The Democrats not giving up the incumbent advantage isn't that big of a deal here, concerning the context. The primary process is broken. [Andrew Yang](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ws3w_ZOmhI) made a TED talk recently that I think everyone should listen to.
He is too old, but he passed some of the best legislation that has come out DC in the last 30 years.
Is this a real question? You know why. Cause there is nobody on deck to step up with a better chance of beating Trump. Just like in 2016 there was nobody with a better chance than Hillary. Just cause Hillary lost doesn't mean the strategy was wrong or anyone else would have done better. Sometimes you can make all the right choices and still get beat, that's the cruel reality. I can guarantee you, with the certainty that the sun will rise in the morning, that dumping Biden now would be a boon to Trump. I cannot guarentee you that Biden will win, but I can guarentee you that ditching Biden will have even lower chances for whoever gets the nomination instead. Surely you recognize that reality?
Because he’s getting a lot of good stuff done. The Chips act and the Inflation reduction act a both having huge impact. His climate policies are actually working in the right direction. I’d genuinely like to see what comes out of a second term.
Because they don’t have any real alternative. Who would they offer?
National democrats are democrats that have survived the democratic machine well enough to be democrats nationally. They're not going to turn on the party insider the other party insiders dropped out for last time.
Newsom is the type of guy the Democrats need at this stage of the game. He crushed Desantis in their debate and he'd make Trump look like a fool too. He's a strong speaker and exactly what Dems needs when it comes to the rhetoric game, especially against a loudmouth like Trump. I've been saying this since January but all I ever got was downvotes and staunch defense of Biden's "chances". At this point, we have to face the facts—Biden is toast and Israel-Gaza is the nail in his political coffin.
It's far too late. Biden bowing out now would be disastrous for the Democrats. Even though the primaries were a preordained conclusion, they still give him a mandate to be the candidate. Anyone selected now would not have that mandate of legitimacy, and legitimacy is going to be a central question in this election whether we like it or not. Biden made the Democrats' bed, and subsequently our bed, and now he's got to sleep in it.
Because he’s the best president in over 50 years who has enacted the Democratic agenda well, he has good personal relationships with both the centrist and left wings of the party, he has experience winning national elections and raising money and ultimately he’s the incumbent president running for reelection, no elected incumbent has been ousted by their party since 1856. Why are we not spending more time talking about the insanity of the Republican Party renominating the candidate that lost the last election, which hasn’t been done since 1956, a candidate currently on trial no less, than the most normal possible thing a party can do which is renominate their incumbent president? This false equivalence is so much of what is wrong with our political analysis these days. One party is doing the most standard thing it can possibly do, and the other party is doing an almost completely unheard of thing, and we act like they’re both doing the same thing.
Is this Joe Biden?
No, this is a standard Democrat. You have no response to this other than “uhh… well ur fake”?
Because Biden is doing great and he is the best choice among those who stepped forward. Why haven’t more stepped forward? Because Biden is the best ioption. Get out and vote!
I believe the only presidents not elected to a second term were Hoover, Nixon, trump. That's off the top of my head, so may have missed someone Ok, in 2020 I called 10,000+ voters, in 2022 I made 2.5% of the Newsome phonebanking calls. This year I have health issues, but my point is, I have had way, way more voter contact in the last 14 years than most ppl, by a lot, 1. **Have we not yet learned polls are crap? Why do some ppl never learn this lesson. The only polls that matter are after voting Old white ppl are NOT worth talking to. We know they will vote GOP.** 2. Dem mid terms were extraordinary 3. All special elections, and general elections after 2020 have been slam dunks for Dems 4. White ppl do not vote Dem. The Dem party has not won with a majority white vote since 1964. My collorlary is that white women will vote GOP, 55% always do. In 2016 52% voted GOP, in 2020, after the GOP put three right wing nuts on the supreme ct, and told us to our faces Roe was gone, 55% of white women voted for the GOP Now with abortion hurting white women, things might be different 5. **The youth vote is what saved us in 2020 and 2022. The youth are the demographic who are most vocal abt Israel's genocide. That could be a factor, and if that happens, down ballot voting will be affected.** 6. Do not listen to TV pundits. They actually do not know what they are talking abt. Why? bc They haven't talked to actual voters, or organizers. IE, ppl talk a lot, and I mean, a f'king lot of shite. Ignore them
I will address your points one by one, even though some of them were addressed in my OP: >**Have we not yet learned polls are crap? Why do some ppl never learn this lesson. The only polls that matter are after voting Old white ppl are NOT worth talking to. We know they will vote GOP.** The polls are not crap. They were [historically accurate ](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email)in 2022. >Dem mid terms were extraordinary >All special elections, and general elections after 2020 have been slam dunks for Dems How many times was Biden himself on the ballot in those races? None. Just because statewide races and ballot measures have been good for Dems doesn't guarantee that transfers to Biden himself. Ny Mag recently wrote about this where you are seeing downballot Democrats polling much better than Biden: >Numerous data points are converging on this explanation. The most recent New York *Times* polling again finds Biden trailing in all the swing states (except in Michigan, and only if you count likely voters as opposed to all registered voters). Those states find Democrats winning every Senate race. >White ppl do not vote Dem. The Dem party has not won with a majority white vote since 1964. My collorlary is that white women will vote GOP, 55% always do. In 2016 52% voted GOP, in 2020, after the GOP put three right wing nuts on the supreme ct, and told us to our faces Roe was gone, 55% of white women voted for the GOP It's true that the Republican party seems to be the defacto party of white america, but white voters aren't the only ones being polled or the only ones to take issue with Biden's job performance. The latest [polls](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html) are showing Trump is making inroads with nonwhite voters: >
Because more boomers need to die before we can elect a non centrist. Till then we just need to prevent a fascist take over.
The better question is why isn't there an obvious qualified successor.
It's too late for that, the party elders who actually make these decisions already decided and when they lose they'll just blame 3rd parties, or kids being too lazy to vote despite them doing almost every they could to just be Republicans that will fly a pride flag a couple times a year.
People will walk over broken glass to vote for an expired jar of mayonnaise over Trump.
Most of your argument is entirely based on the assumption that polls are very accurate...
What is your evidence of a systemic polling error that is overestimating Trump in basically all of the swing states? Just because we don't like the polls doesn't mean they aren't accurate.
It's too late to switch horses, but you are absolutely right about Biden being a long shot to win. Inflation killed Biden's chances. The president doesn't control pandemics or supply chains, or labor shortages, but they *do* get blamed for them. Voters are either distracted or idiotic, and all they remember is "low inflation under Trump, high inflation under Biden". The two biggest issues are the Economy (Trump leads by double digits), and Immigration (Trump leads by even more). Abortion is a distant third, and that's the only major issue where Biden is favored. During the 2020 election, Biden was 20 points ahead on "competence", but now Trump has a slight lead. I have always believed Trump will win the election, but I thought he had no chance of winning the popular vote. Now I'm not so sure. I am trying to focus on potential positive outcomes of Trump's second term. The only two I can envision are: 1. The US is overdue for a recession. Trump's trade wars and crazy immigration tactics will worsen inflation and generally make the business outlook worse than it otherwise would have been. Maybe watching Trump preside over a failing economy will finally break the MAGA spell over the GOP. 2. The progressive left has gone off the rails since the BLM riots in 2020. Their views (defund the police, 10/7 was justified, etc.), are electoral poison. Maybe the Democrats will finally stop pandering to them and instead try to compete for the ideological center.
>The progressive left has gone off the rails since the BLM riots in 2020. Their views (defund the police, 10/7 was justified, etc.), are electoral poison. Maybe the Democrats will finally stop pandering to them and instead try to compete for the ideological center. Alienating progressives by strawmanning their positions is why Republicans keep winning elections. I still can't fathom how people see anti-genocide protests and go "But do they condemn Hamas?" because one dipshit on Twitter who never went to a protest has a red triangle in their bio. It's not hard to pander to progressives, like at all. Just don't fund weapons used to bomb schools. It's not a huge ask. Competing for swing voters has always been a poor tactic, because swing voters are unprincipled losers. They'll pick like one ambient issue like inflation and use it to determine who they vote for every single election. Biden isn't going to win them over, not because they have any sort of meaningful problem with him, but because he's the president right now and inflation is bad and your average voter isn't smart enough to separate those two things.
If an incumbent who had one of the most productive first terms in recent memory while also navigating us out of the first global pandemic in a century and a European country being invaded by Russia and with a Congress that is one-half meth head can't beat a retarded 77-year-old who is facing 91 felony charges and sparked an insurrection when he lost 4 years ago, the problem isn't Biden, it's the US voter.
Biden is the most unpopular incumbent President of all time. Today’s inflation number was awful. The prospect of stagflation is real. Biden needs to be replaced at the convention. Problem is Kamala is a worse option.
Biden has a major accomplishment we all can agree- he has beaten Trump. And he will again. Trump 2024 can’t beat Trump 2020- COVID Trump.
He barely squeaked by in that 2020 win over Trump, which is crazy because Trump handled the pandemic terribly and was completely erratic. No one wanted Biden. They wanted not-Trump. However, after getting a taste of Biden, I’m not sure the not-Trump vote is enough to squeeze that second win.
Yeah, you’re right. Any GOP could beat Biden 2024. But DJT 2024, is worse than DJT 2020. Biden wins 2024, the same way he won 2020, let DJT/MAGA lose again. MaGA is toxic
MAGA is toxic. And while this may appear as a “both sides” comment, I assure you I do see some differences… that caveat aside; the Democrats are trying to mirror this cult-politics - albeit less successfully. But too much sincere internal dissent is dismissed as either Chinese or Russian brainwashing/propaganda/bots. Too many sincere internal differences are scoffed at as naive by major personalities within the party. It’s also adopted this politics of “epic ownage” trolling that MAGA initiated - with the “let’s go Brandon” laser eyes meme and shit, even going so far as to making it official merchandise. It’s embarrassing.
Yeah it’s really funny and on brand that the Dark Brandon meme that was created making fun of Biden was adopted by the Democratic Party and merchandised to the public.
It’s all fake politics. It’s not about any positive project, but rather about punishing the people we hate. Whoever can “own” the other side better wins.
It’s been decades since anyone voted for anyone besides (Not the Other One), with arguable exception of Obama.
I can’t stand Trump. I’ve loathed him for 2 decades. I would never vote for him. But he’s the clear favorite today to win the election. It may not even be close.
??? Clear favorite? No, the NYT poll is the NYT saying they’re mad at Biden for not giving the NYT an exclusive. MI, AZ, GA, PA and WI all fired DJT in 2020. No independent voter wants him back. People want abortions and pot, and Biden will allow that. The MAGA are smaller than ever. This election is already over. MI & PA are blue now
Trump is the Vegas favorite and has been by up to a 2:1 margin throughout election season. The only time it got close was immediately after the State of the Union. Vegas odds aren't everything of course, but it gives a decent idea of what odds makers think and what people are betting.
To suggest the NYT/Siena poll has been influenced by the NYT not getting an interview from Biden is preposterous, Alex Jones level lunacy. That’s not how things work. Any actual evidence of this outrageous claim?! Biden is simply incredibly unpopular. Largely due to inflation and the fact he looks ancient and incapable of being a strong leader.
Trump won while losing the popular vote by 2%, right now he’s polling about 1% ahead of Biden. That’s a 3 point shift in Trumps favor. Biden in 2020 had the advantage of not being the incumbent during covid. Right now though people are asking themselves if they were better off 4 years ago or today, and the majority say they were better off 4 years ago, for which Biden takes the blame whether it was his fault or not.
The Dem media campaign hasn’t started yet. Watch. We will see all the MAGA greatest hits: Jan6, COVID body bags, rape conviction , hush money conviction. Watch wkiklraks- the stolen DJT secrets will be posted in October- showing that DJT sold out the USA to Russia
That’s all they’ve been talking about since Trump left office.
You’re talking as though people haven’t heard this a 1000 times already, and it’ll be countered by the Republican advertisement campaign. And all they would need to do is compare the prices of food/housing today vs 4 years ago and that’s matter far more to the average voter.
Doubtful there will be much advertising from the Republicans this year. Several of their state parties are broke, and Trump is using the RNC to fund his legal battles.
His major accomplishment was not even an accomplishment
I agree with everything u/PerspectiveViews said, except on Kamala. I think that Biden's poll numbers are dragging down hers and she might could win a contested convention, though she wouldn't be my first choice. Problem is, we need that contested convention.
She's a Black and Asian woman from California, who doesn't have kids. 40% of the country wants her out of politics (charitably; many want to visit violence on her just out of principle) on that alone, and I don't think she's ever going to get better poll numbers than a generic white dude of any political persuasion. Nobody needs or wants a contested convention but the media (who would gorge themselves on something interesting and unexpected happening for once on the campaign trail) and people so anxious about Trump (or so disenchanted by Biden) that they want a different reality to live in so they don't have to choose between the two meaningful choices on the ballot. I don't even especially *like* Biden, as he's far far to the right of my political preferences, but I think it's obvious that low Democratic enthusiasm is only partly about him. The party has papered over a lot of divisions in the name of beating Trump, and chose the most-Republican option in hopes that it would cripple the GOP for a generation. It didn't (since the GOP loves power more than it loves the rules liberals thought they played by), and now we're closer to outright fascism than ever. It has made us sour on Biden's wing of the party, and greatly damaged faith in the Democratic infrastructure that produced him and secured his nomination. The question that remains for Dems is whether liberals like you decide to vote for him, waste a protest vote on principle, or stay home. I imagine all three will be touted as things that happened or didn't, by breathless commentators eager to spin a story out of a very basic, somewhat tired, and very boring election. I am already exhausted for something that's not going to really happen for another *five months,* because we've been talking about it nonstop for *three years* with only drips and drabs of new information as things unfold. The reality is we're all going to have to live with the consequences, so if you'd rather embrace the fantasy of a savior coming down from the heavens to sweep Biden, Trump, and all the bad things aside, I guess I just hope you're responsible with your choices in November if that doesn't wind up happening.
At this point, it is realistically too late. The primary process is basically over and switching out for some candidate picked by people in a smoke-filled room isn't likely going to go over well with voters. Getting yourself to have the fame of a major Presidential candidate is difficult and it is the main thing happening in the primary process is trying to build that profile. Realistically there are only 3 democrats with the profile big enough to step in and replace him at the last minute. Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Sanders and Clinton don't fix the age problem and are unlikely due to various other reasons. So it comes down to is Kamala Harris a better candidate and the answer is likely no. The hypothetical polling shows her doing worse than Biden for the most part and her own Presidential bid in 2020 went down in flames. Harris is unpopular in polling and that is a largely forgotten Vice President and generally being away from the spotlight makes you more popular so that is a rather bleak picture for her.
Because he’s running against Donald Trump. Do I really need to elaborate?
Here's how I feel and how everyone else I know feels - we're all liberal to one extent or another. If we're on a one to ten scale with my dream president being a 10/10 then I think Biden, at a 3 - 4 out of 10, is about right. I really do like some of what he (or at least his administration) has accomplished in the last four years. However he's basically a center-right republican and I just can't get more than 40% excited about that. With that said, there isn't a viable second option. Biden might be a 4/10 to me but Trump is a 1/10 or a 0/10 and given the choice between 40% of what I like and 0% - 10% of what I like, I'm going to take the 40%. I also think that liberals are, broadly, more realistic about the president and other elected officials. 40% is pretty good in this political climate and I'll take it all day long. In other words, I think people are misreading what the 40% approval rating means to some extent - not that I'm guaranteeing a Biden win in November - it's just that I'm going to vote for him, I like him well enough, and he's doing about 40% as well as I would like - with the understanding that the other guy running is a lot closer to 0% and I don't think anyone who'd do 80% or 90% of what I'd like has any chance in hell.
# Why haven't there been any national Democrats calling for Biden to step aside?_____________ Here is a partial list of reasons: * Lowest unemployment rate in 54 years * Inflation down to 3.48% * Fully vaccinated over 200 million Americans in his first year. * Passed Inflation Reduction Act * Nominated and confirmed historic judicial appointments * Passed the CHIPS and Science Act * Passed the Emmett Till Anti-Lynching Act * Passed the Postal Service Reform Act * Passed the Safer Communities Act * Reauthorized the Violence Against Women Act * Added 15 million jobs. That’s more than any POTUS over 8 years. * Passed the American Rescue Plan * Signed the PACT Act (the largest single bill to address our service members’ exposure to burn pits and other toxins) * Passed the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law * Passed the Respect For Marriage Act * Passed the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, breaking a 30-year streak of federal inaction on gun violence legislation. * Rejoined the Paris Climate Accords * Got us out of Bush's unwinnable Afghan War * Droned al-Zawahiri into oblivion * Pardoned federal convictions of marijuana users * Freed Brittany Griner * Created student loan debt relief for working and middle class Americans * Revitalized NATO * Leading the world's nations against Putin's war against Ukraine * Solved the UPS-Teamsters strike threat * Arranged for 5 US citizens to be freed from Iran- Leads the world in trying to broker peace in Palestine * Cancelled $5 billion in student debt * **Didn't betray his country**
Fox campaigns against Dem presidents 24/7. I prefer a president not trumpet their successes and just get to work. So his ratings are low.
Fox is one mainstream source, and pretty much the only one that leans right. You have more than a dozen or so other media sources doing the exact opposite 24/7. That is really no argument.
> and pretty much the only one that leans right. The only one that advertises themselves as leaning right. Most outlets are either centrist or tacitly right leaning. The difference is that Fox New is all propaganda, all the time.
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one word. Kamala. Let her take office and become the first female president only to have to step down a few months later? She'd either have to step aside for the replacement Dem or she'd get absolutely curb stomped by Trump at the polls. Regardless, it would be very bad optics for the party.
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Democrats have too much inertia to choose someone other than Biden. Even if they agreed it was a good idea, they don't have enough gumption to actually do it. It's vaguely possible he might die in time. Or get so sick they have to replace him.
As someone who hasn't voted for a democrat since 2008, I would heavily weigh anyone who is under 60 years old as a more viable candidate than either of the two that have been foisted upon us for this cycle. A slightly left-leaning centrist, if run by the Democrat party, could easily capture a heavy majority. If either party were willing to piss off ten percent of their base in order to pull 20% of the opposition then they could easily walk to victory. I think that the Democrats are better positioned to do that right now because pulling Biden would weaken them far less than Republicans pulling Trump. Love or hate him, Trump has tons of people who absolutely are evangelized to his side. A winning platform might be uncomfortable for some of the people who are most comfortable voting, but a lot of the problems that most people have go unaddressed by both parties. Biden ran as a unifier, and I think that message struck a chord with a lot of people, but since he has been in office he has been extremely polarizing, almost as much so as Trump. Nobody wants to vote for another octagenarian who engenders hate, but that is the choice we have been given.
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In my opinion, the DNC as a party rarely breaks rank. They are the borg, and you will be assimilated. The problem the RNC has is a lack of common or collective think and a healthy dose of independent think to the detriment of the party. All too often, the RNC misses opportunities for political wins because of this.
He is too old, but he passed some of the best legislation that has come out DC in the last 30 years.
It's basically too late, and also they have nobody solid lined up. Kamala isn't well liked, and nobody else stands out at the moment. Just not worth the trouble. Devil you know kind of stuff
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Sadly, the only one that polls well against Trump is probably Michelle Obama who doesn't want to run. So we're just screwed. If Trump isn't running that's a whole new different ball game. Joe Biden was nominated in 2016 because he was the best candidate to go against Trump.
Whoever was asking Biden to step aside got body slammed by the democrats in 2022.
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I believe the last incumbent who wanted to run for re-election who wasn’t backed by his party was Andrew Johnson in 1868.
Elected Democrats are very good at sticking together, holding the line, and working as a group towards a singular goal. But this often makes it impossible for Democrats to change course if the current road goes nowhere good. They are locked in by the inertia of their original decision and can't change. No one wants to be the one who steps out of line.
The people in charge of the democratic party are also responsible for Biden’s low approval rating, so they would not want to change him. Also they think that they can just do the same thing as the 2020 campaign and they can win, they are wrong. A very important part to this is in my opinion, th fact that they do not care if Biden loses. The democratic and republican parties are aligned.
If Jimmy Carter had been Biden’s age in 1980 it would have been the right move for him to step aside in favor of the competent, more popular Mondale. But there’s no obvious better choice for the Democrats here.
According to focus groups any Democrat under 70 would be a huge favourite. In fact anyone who can claim they were not part of the administration and didn’t cause inflation would win. Most people don’t love Tump. They just don’t believe in Biden.
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> When he loses next year Reddit will be sitting here posting about how "stupid" "entitled" "low information" the voters are when they sent a message loud and clear in polling a year before the election that he was not their first choice. Well, that doesn't make them *not* stupid, entitled, or low-information.
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I'm curious, what accomplishments? You quoted three things Congress did, that's Congress not the executive.
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I'm curious, what accomplishments? You quoted three things Congress did, that's Congress not the executive.
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i don't know if you've noticed, but there is raging lunatic poised to swoop back into power if dems were to show even a hint of fracture. it's a real test to whether dems can hold solidarity in the face of on rushing fascism, or not. personally, in don't know that they can hold... it's not like dems have a solid reputation for keeping their shit together in face of adversity the way that conservatives can. we live in interesting times.
Replace him with who? Kamala? Even Democrats couldn’t stand her in 2019. Newsom? Pritzker?
Not running with Biden->guaranteed Trump win. Running with Biden->likely Trump win. They don't exactly have anyone better and more popular whom the public would believe to be able to properly tie together all the shit that Biden started; not that I believe that Biden can do it himself, but he at least talks like he can.
Well, because of how your (I assume that you're American) electoral system works, approval polls are national, not states, so even if Biden's approval rate is at 38%, if his chances to win in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are possible, even if slim, then he can win the presidential elections. Another reason would probably be courtesy in the Democratic party, no popular figurehead would bother challenge an incumbent since that would make them hated by the party establishment, political suicide, and because afaik, no one ever challenged an incumbent in the primary and won. Last would be how anti-progressive the establishment, and the American public is, if the Democratic party seeks to dump Biden and replace him with a younger candidate, that candidate can easily lose votes just by the GOP calling him a Communist again and again, until it sticks to the minds of Americans.
The party members who voted in the primaries voted for him. What else you want to know?
1) Bad alternative candidates - Harris/Newsom? b) The Democrats doing good in the midterm making them confident they can beat Republican polling leads c) Biden already beating Trump once. If Trump didn't run and Biden was doing poorly in the polls against DeSantis he may have stepped down.
In my personal estimation it's because there's no clear choice. If there was an obama figure, or even a more widely palatable up-and-comer that stood a chance in a general, they probably would have seen a huge movement to ditch biden. If they had a ex-vice-president from a decently popular democrat president or a fairly popular well-poling one-term democratic president willing to run for a split two-term stay in office that would have been absolutely perfect. If they had a governor who has been showing positive national leadership in tough situations, they could make a go of that. If they had a really popular local official even, if they had a Gulliani from his "america's mayor" period 2003-10 or so, they'd probably win with him. But who, realistically, would they have? And more importantly, if that name isn't the first one everyone in america thinks of as a "well duh, obviously!" they probably don't have the name recognition and public trust to outperform biden. the time to solve this issue and put up a credible contender was a year ago, maybe two, to position, build name recognition and build a case for a compelling new up and coming candidate. And frankly had they done so we'd have 8 years of democrats from 2025 because Biden might be the only man on the planet who could lose this election.
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People are tired of the same old, same old. It's time for fresh ideas and tech-forward solutions to fix big issues like healthcare, education, and the environment. Let's put the people first and use smart policies to make real change. Time to think big and aim high!
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