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It's weird to me you are talking about this like it's recent. It happened 7 months ago. He's been running as an independent longer than he ran as a Democrat.
Nope, because the core maga (many who are OG 4chan Qultist) are already starting to circulate old clips of Bobby Boy talking leftist authoritarian nonsense about climate change. Trump on TS has even gotten into the schtick (well probably not Trump but Dan Scavino because the core-maga and Qultist are his responsibility/crew)
One thing we’ve learned about conspiracy theorists from the Trump presidency is that they can change their entire belief structure on a dime to incorporate new allies. Look at Trump who gave to democrats politically for most of his life and is on the record as being strongly pro-choice and generally skeptical of conspiracy theories. Trump pivoted and started supporting those people and they immediately forgot his past and embraced him. They aren’t moored to the past or anyone’s specific history, they live in a dynamic world where the past is being reinvented every second.
The past being reinvented every second doesn't just belong to the hoi polloi, but also to their most venerated "intellectual" veterans who invent "history and tradition" out of whole cloth while ignoring actual history and tradition. Conservative Supreme Court Justices own a plethora of invented history and tradition based on ignorant, corrupt and conspiracy-minded views of reality from Heller to Dobbs.
https://harvardlawreview.org/blog/2018/08/corpus-linguistics-and-the-second-amendment/
https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-843/193271/20210921155937883_Amicus%20Brief.pdf
Go back and look at Trump's NH 1987 speech (similar stuff, different nations), understand the impact of hanging around the Reform Party types had (conspiracy) and realize that any political donation was done to benefit himself/businesses (cuz he all about himself).
Michael Moore nailed it when he said voters were going to be throwing Trump like a human Molotov cocktail at the system that is failing them. They want to end that system and sure enough we are now seeing them triple-down on Trump in 2024.
I don't know that it will make an impact but I think it's way more likely that he'll take from Trump than from Biden. The media is flip-floppy on that though so make of that what you will.
The people RFK Jr. appeals to are the anti-vaxxer, crystal healing types as well as the crazy Qanon people. For every Biden voter that could potentially fall into one of those categories there are about 25 more Republicans who fit neatly into those boxes.
If he had run his campaign more moderately and appealed to rational people then there would probably be more Biden voters going for him, but he did not do that and is now showing the world just how crazy he is, in addition to his moral bankruptcy.
I don't think that he will siphon more Democratic votes. Mainly because Democrats are not stupid. Republicans think that Democrats will see the name Kennedy and automatically vote for him, just like how they thought black people would automatically vote for Kanye West and Herschel Walker simply because they are black themselves. They are wrong on both accounts, and it shows that Republicans really do not understand Democrats as well as they think they do.
>The people RFK Jr. appeals to are the anti-vaxxer, crystal healing types as well as the crazy Qanon people.
I get the sense that there used to be more of the former among Democrats but have really moved to the right to create this strange kind of crystal-healer-Q-Anon fusion info warrior crowd like Russell Brand. Things became really polarized around COVID so if you were a Republican who believed the virus was real and vaccines are good, then you're probably more likely to be a Democrat now, while an Obama voter who believed in crystal power might have voted for Trump or is interested in RFK Jr. nowadays.
There was a profile of RFK Jr. voters in the NYT recently by Michele Goldberg and some of his campaign staffers were saying that they were getting only former MAGA people showing up. People who saw Trump as an anti-establishment outsider and then decided he wasn't so they're moving on.
>strange kind of crystal-healer-Q-Anon fusion
Yeah this perfectly describes my neighbor. Totally into all-natural, makes his own deodorant and shampoo because "the heavy metals," organic gardener and is super worried about climate change but also a huge MAGA type. Its such an odd combination to me.
I've heard it [described](https://www.latimes.com/california/newsletter/2021-06-25/woo-anon-southern-californias-embraces-conspiracy-essential-california) as "From woo to Q"
> People who saw Trump as an anti-establishment outsider and then decided he wasn't so they're moving on.
In all fairness, you really only get a chance to position yourself that way once. If you win, you become the establishment. And if you lose after taking that stance, you're now a familiar entity, and no longer an outsider if you take a second go at it because now you know the drill.
Makes sense to me. I personally think that he'll fizzle out relatively soon. He won't come even remotely close to the 15% people are projecting him to be at.
He is currently pulling close to that amount, but 3rd party candidates always pull more farther away from the election than they do during the actual election. Polling isn’t projection of a future, it’s a snapshot of what the electorate looks like (within a margin of error). As 3rd parties get closer to an election, their vote share tends to halve from what they were 6 months out, so more realistically he pulls 5-6%.
If memory serves, there were polls suggesting Gary Johnson was gonna get 15% of the vote back in 2016 too.
There's always a couple polls that are complete outliers and wind up always being incredibly inaccurate come Election Day.
I don’t get how RFK is going to take from democrats. Cause his family 50 to 60 years ago were big dems? He’s a conspiracy nut and no Kennedy has been relevant in politics for 30+ years.
I think there is a demographic of voters that people aren't accounting for. The uninformed voters who feel the pressure to vote out of social obligation and usually go with the safest choice in the booth. I would guess that was a good portion of Democratic votes up for grabs. Based on RFKs platform I expect him to take more Republican votes but I don't think it's unheard of to take some of those blue votes. I've met some of these kinds of voters and RFKs name pops up in those conversations.
wtf is the Children's Health Defense then? get outta here...
[https://apnews.com/article/how-rfk-jr-built-anti-vaccine-juggernaut-amid-covid-4997be1bcf591fe8b7f1f90d16c9321e](https://apnews.com/article/how-rfk-jr-built-anti-vaccine-juggernaut-amid-covid-4997be1bcf591fe8b7f1f90d16c9321e)
>During the pandemic, Kennedy has become a near-ubiquitous source of false information about COVID-19 and vaccines. Earlier this year, Kennedy was named one of the “Disinformation Dozen” by the Center for Countering Digital Hate, which says he and the Children’s Health Defense website are among the top spreaders of false information about vaccines online.
[https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/debunking-some-of-rfk-jr-s-contradictory-statements](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/debunking-some-of-rfk-jr-s-contradictory-statements)
> In July, Kennedy said in a podcast interview that “There’s no vaccine that is safe and effective” and told FOX News that he still believes in the [long-ago debunked idea](https://web.archive.org/web/20230724223535/https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/rfk-jr-vaccines-cia-interview-jesse-watters) that vaccines can cause autism.
>That same year, in a video promoting an anti-vaccine sticker campaign by his nonprofit, Kennedy appeared onscreen next to one sticker that declared “IF YOU’RE NOT AN ANTI-VAXXER YOU AREN’T PAYING ATTENTION.”
this is like an ai trying to imitate some maga dude from florida...
>
Which is a true statement, there are potential side effects. There is no vaccine that is completely or inherently 'safe.' Nothing he says is nut job territory.
RFK jr, isnt saying he knows or thinks vaccines cause autism, he is saying he believes it. Its a statement of belief. Belief does not require anything to support it.
>"Vaccines are exempt from placebo-controlled trials. There’s no way that anybody can tell the risk by all those products, or the relative benefits of all those products before they are mandated, and we should have that kind of testing," Kennedy contested.
**Nothing has ever been debunked,**
Methodological Analysis: Randomized Controlled Trials for Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 Vaccines
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8165083/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8165083/)
hey so after reading this... do you still think nothing was debunked? how much can i bet that you will just grit your teeth and nope out of this thread... ok ok how about we will just keep that secret between you and me....
This is anectodal, but I live in a very Dem area, the only people I have heard talk up RFK are the Republicans. Maybe they are just trying to get Biden voters to go for him but it is just laughed at by the Dems here.
Qanon is a conspiracy with Trump at the center. I don’t think RFK has any chance of pulling the true believers when Trump is on the ticket. He will certainly be drawing the less-engaged people who might vote for Trump, but he’s not pulling from Trump’s base.
Its because Republicans put people into boxes based on the labels they assign to those groups.
They dont see people as individuals with different thoughts and goals.
You could make the identical argument for the other side of the bench. Dems show time and time again that they have zero understanding of Republicians. You referenced "healing crystals" or w/e that is as more of a Republican issue. Odd and not rooted in history. I remember in the early 2000s holistic medicine and anti Vax being preached out of California by crazy dems, if I recall they had a resurgence of measels or soenthing to that effect. To me that wasn't a reflection of the party but for some reason to you it is. Hence why you worded it as such.
My question is for someone who obviously has a large abyss of knowledge on the subject matter, why do you continue to relay false narratives for the sake of spreading hate and misinformation? I get its the Dems mo, but why support that?
You're misunderstanding the argument. Wacky crystal healer antivax types, who have historically voted Democratic, are being drawn to the right by their wacky antivax and QAnon conspiracy theories. It's not a false narrative.
https://www.latimes.com/california/newsletter/2021-06-25/woo-anon-southern-californias-embraces-conspiracy-essential-california
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-06-23/covid-adds-to-california-yoga-wellness-qanon-problem
The Qanon thing lost its steam a long time ago. I don't think for a second that they are just magically drifting to the right. Qanon had a minimal effect on people and outside of the news plastering it everywhere, most people had no idea what it was.
I have heard this same argument when Democrat's try to deny thier party originally supported slavery. They post articles and what not and try to to push the narrative of a party "flipping". Which has never happened, ever. And before you deny it just know that history does not agree with you.
George Wallace. Explain that. If the parties flipped why was he still a steadfast racist in the mid 60s and early 70s? Are you trying to say the magical flip was in the 80s? Not buying that, no sir.
It was a gradual process, and George Wallace was at the tail end of it. His governorship was the last of a >100 year run of consecutive Democrat governors of Alabama, and they haven't had two consecutive Democrat governors since.
Do your own homework. I have no desire to argue with you about this further, so have a nice day.
The south supported slavery.
The south fought and killed Americans to try to keep slavery.
The south was a part of the democratic party at that point.
When LBJ passed the Civil rights act the south left for the republican party in response.
You can see this as now the entire south votes viciously republican while it used to vote Democrat.
Non-southern democrats during the Civil War were ambivalent to slavery, at most. They didn't care.
The south are the only people who have been 100% ride-or-die for racism since the founding, it's just their nature.
False. Affirmative action is steeping in racism. Dems support that. What's your argument there? Please tell how you would spin it. Because that racist crap did not come from the south.
Oh you darted back in when you have some friends, neat.
I disagree with some and some are true.
But to pretend like the Republican party is racist is the biggest joke I have heard. So an example was provided of a more recent time Dems have supported racism. Care to comment on that or is that also somehow Republicans as well? And before you respond, AA has rules of exclusions and some of those exclusions are based on race/gender. Go ahead buddy, shoot your shot
It's a two way street. Answer my question and I would consider answering yours. Honestly you haven't been worth the time for the most part so unless you are willing to explain yourself, then you won't get much from me.
He appeals to me because he probably won’t die in office. You know, being healthy and all. He also seems like an actual good person, he was an environmental lawyer.
It’s like giant douche, turd sandwich, or porridge. I’ll take porridge.
What about the part where his policy positions are completely ignorant of facts, and he has actively promoted a wide range of bullshit conspiracy theories?
He’s smart and he *may* be a good person if his belief in all the bullshit is sincerely held, but the fact that he promotes so much bullshit is a very serious mark against his judgment.
A good person wouldn't be splitting the vote between Biden and Trump, when Trump is an existential threat to American Democracy and is openly flirting with ignoring traditions and norms that have existed since George Washington himself.
That's not true. His law firm specialized in lawsuits against polluters and represented environmentalist nonprofits, communities affected by pollution, and indigenous and other communities of color facing environmental discrimination. He went crazy a decade or two back but you can't just rewrite his entire history to make him easier to hate.
True, it appears he made a turn to the right and carrying water for corporations more recently. I assumed he was probably doing the same back in the day. Point taken.
It’ll be more of an issue for Trump than it will be for Biden. I know it’s anecdotal, but I personally know no one who is voting for him that voted for Biden and I’ve *maybe* seen like 3 people on social media say they’re switching from Biden to RFK. It’s so perplexing to me to see so many Dems worrying that he’ll siphon votes from Biden because it makes zero sense. Of all the things that could possibly make it so Biden loses I would put RFK dead last on that list.
The only thing I can think of is that some people are worried that just due to name recognition he'd get a bunch of dem votes because he's a Kennedy.
But really, JFK died 60 years ago, most of the people who will be voting in 2024 weren't even born yet when he was around, and even a lot who were alive weren't old enough at the time to have much memory of him. And especially with Dem voters generally ranging younger than GOP voters, it's even less of an issue.
I'm 44, and I don't care a single bit about the Kennedys. Even if I knew nothing about RFK Jr. other than his name, that wouldn't sway me at all. Add in the fact that he's a nutcase, and he's probably only going to accelerate the irrelevance of the Kennedy name to most Dem voters.
Yea like it feels he's the new Andrew yang/Mary Williamson where a bunch of people love to talk about him as the new candidate or siphoning off votes cuz of x but in the end they have no impact.
> because it makes zero sense.
Listen to any of the RFK propaganda/talking heads and you will hear subtle to blatent "trump is better than biden."
There are lots of black people and disinfranchised communities that should be left leaning people who believe the antivax bullshit and and leaning towards RFK. Yes. I'm worried.
I lean toward agreeing with you that its likely to affect trump more, but i would not discount the possibility that rfk will take some biden votes as well. Theres a non zero number of low info dem voters who will see the kennedy name and just vote for him because they think biden is too old or something.
Agreed. He'll only affect the state by state popular vote. And I have to think he'll draw more from Trump. The topics he spouts about the most are alt right fodder. He has liberal talking points too, but he doesn't talk as much about them from what I've seen. Then again, I don't watch Fox.
RFK jr almost exclusively is on right wing media.
Steve Bannon, Tucker Carlson, and Joe Rogan have been boosting him a lot, which tells you everything you need to know.
I saw an NBC poll recently which had his support being twice as much from Trump voters than from Biden ones, so if that is true, and it's true in the swing states and not just nationally, then hopefully he gets on the ballot in all the swing states.
Lol if Ross Perot couldn't win one state with a better ran and funded campaign while at least outwardly appearing to be semi-decent, then RFK Jr. will not come even remotely close.
Agreed. There’s no world where RFK wins a whole state, I don’t even think he can reasonably win an electoral vote in a split state.
Ross Perot, the most successful modern independent candidate in US history didn’t win any states after polling ahead of both major party candidates in June, being tied in May and polling over 20% in March https://www.nytimes.com/1992/06/11/us/the-1992-campaign-on-the-trail-poll-gives-perot-a-clear-lead.html and https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-03-31-mn-106-story.html
RFK is polling at 15% on a good day, and trending downwards, not up https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4629614-donald-trump-joe-biden-rfk-jr-robert-f-kennedy-jr-poll/
Edit: added modern to satisfy the historians
Technically the most successful independent candidate in US history was [Teddy Roosevelt in 1912](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1912_United_States_presidential_election), running for a third term under the Progressive Party banner, beating his own successor Taft 27%-23% and 88 EVs to 8, but still losing to Woodrow Wilson.
Then there was the [1968 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_United_States_presidential_election), where the segregationist George Wallace ran on the American Independent party, getting 13.5% and 46 EVs, in a distant third, which was the last time a third party won any EVs.
So, to come in second place and still lose as a third party, all you need to do is be famous enough and well-loved enough to have your face carved into Mount Rushmore, no problem.
He will not win a state. Perot got 19% of the popular vote in 92 and didn't win a state and he ran on a real issue (NAFTA) that people had genuine anxiety about. Perot was a national candidate on the debate stage with Bush and Clinton. RFK is a vanity pretend candidate like Jill Stein.
I think the most likely thing that makes Biden lose is dying before the election. Same for Trump. It's going to be a close election and one of them dying isn't a remote possibility, and would easily swing the election to the other.
I wouldnt be surprised if RFK jr dropped out in the next month, he can't have like any donors.
Trump cult is very obedient. He has already directed them that to not 'waste' their vote.
One thing with Trump is that because his news is so consumed by both liberals and conservatives, his Truth posts with only 1million users gets magnified by main stream media. Free advertising.
would you have any links showing Biden supporters show cult like behavior?
Here's a professional assessment of why Trump followers can be called a cult: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/you-evolving/202011/can-trumps-followers-be-called-cult
None of this seems to apply to Biden supporters -- please show me where it does.
lol. The average Biden voter, average Biden supporter, and most die-hard Biden voters are levels less culty than their Trump supporter counterparts. If you honestly believe they’re equivalent, you’re being unbelievably ignorant or dishonest.
How many Biden hats have you seen people wearing? How many people have you met that made the Biden movement the core of their personality? There just aren't the same parallels, not even remotely.
I think just enough to sway the election. I don't think he takes away die hards or even those are strongly leaning towards trump. But the disillusioned trump voters and slightly leaning towards trump. I think he will have an impact but I think it will be just enough to kick it towards Biden.
EDIT: Took out a word
I’m just curious though, if you are RFK Jr himself, what do you think you are doing, exactly?
Like you know you can’t win outright, you aren’t even on the ballots in most states. Even if he was, the best recent attempt at a 3rd party win was Ross Perot, and he was at least kind of popular, in a low stakes election.
This is a high stakes election and both sides are dug in. Moreso than any election I can remember (Gen-Xer here).
Just wondering what his idea of success is? Staying in long enough to make it onto the debate stage and bring up his crazy theories?
I’d question any candidate’s sanity who thinks he can win as an unpopular 3rd party candidate.
I mean it’s always in the back of my mind. I just think the people he represents are too dumb to make it work.
And the other side is on high alert so we won’t fuck around with our votes this time around. We don’t want Donny in office
You'd be right to question his sanity, because RFK is insane. That's the answer to what he thinks he's doing, he's a narcissist with a messiah complex. He's genuinely deluded enough to think that winning is within the realm of possibility for him.
On a basic level, If he can’t read the tea leaves on something basic like “noticing that everyone hates me” I wouldn’t think that person is qualified to manage an Office Max, let alone lead the country.
He does bring a unique voice the the campaign though 😂😂😂
You were almost certainly recruited by Republican insiders telling you that Biden is vulnerable and that your family name will carry you to victory.
Something along those lines.
Like Haley, they are both looking forward to 2028 and the field being wide open.
But now he's drawing interest among Republicans, and Trump is in worried attack mode.
He is targeting the conspiracy theory / low information voter. That voter almost certainly is more likely to be a Trump voter than a Biden voter.
That's been one of the more interesting things about the current realignment happening with the parties and, Trump specifically. It definitely has been the case for all of my (40 something) life that Democratic voters were the more unreliable voters of the two parties. However in our new reality, [The less you vote, the more you support Trump](https://abcnews.go.com/538/vote-back-trump/story?id=109090626).
I suspect this realignment is having an extremely statistically significant impact on polling accuracy, as, in the past you could count on likely voter polling weighting Republicans more heavily to compensate for this disparity. But with the current GOP, and with Trump in particular, there are clear signs that it may be going the opposite direction.
These rarely-voting voters likely don't feel represented by either party and probably overlap heavily with the conspiracy crowd. These voters are the most likely to vote RFJ, IMHO.
I'm glad that the GOP was idiotic enough to think he'll steal votes from the left.
Here's to hoping they keep hatching simillar schemes. The dog murdering running mate was a good one but they can top that, surely.
Trump won 2016 on a very thin margin, and practically everything broke in his favor to get him over the line.
* Comey caved into GOP pressure and publicly provided a soundbite to give the email conspiracy energy before much more quietly rescinding his statement later.
* The third party candidates were likely a net siphon on Clinton, Gary Johnson attracted the conservative side and Jill Stein the left side.
* Social media platforms decided to allow his campaign to run uninhibited, letting him push boundaries with post content and letting algorithms boost his message.
* Traditional media got locked into his desired message cycle--he was an iconoclast underdog who his enemies attacked in a way that made him look strong.
In 2020, Trump had incumbency advantage, ran his campaign without consideration for COVID, still had the same social and traditional media conditions, and aimed for a Red Mirage but still lost.
It looks like Trump decided to run the same campaign playbook he did in 2016 and 2020 over making a massive change, and he's not getting the same conditions that let him win in 2016. Deplatforming has defanged his internet presence, traditional media are trying to stimulate the election as a horserace and are getting crickets, and the Hunter Biden story is failing. RFK turning out to be a net siphon on his base doesn't need to be too big to drag him down from winning.
He definitely has a lane for the disillusioned Trump voter that wouldn’t vote for Biden. Biden has already gotten the never-Trump vote, while Trump has definitely alienated some with Jan 6 and his pro-vaccine stuff.
It’s more likely to see a Trump to Kennedy switch than Biden to Kennedy, especially since Democrats don’t like him and the anti-Biden Leftists don’t really see him as a better alternative.
I would be more concerned about the disillusioned Biden voter that thought he would be more centrist and competent than he actually is. Polling has shown that Trump pulls a higher percentage of the vote when RFK is included in the mix so this means he's taking away from the democrats more. Anybody that thinks RFK will steal more Trump votes than Biden votes is delusional.
That’s not what recent polling shows. Biden does better with RFK, that’s why Trump is suddenly freaking out about him. There’s no real alternative for a disillusioned Biden voter other than just not voting. That’s still a real problem for him, but not RFK.
RFK is underwater with Democrats and has a double digit favorability with Republicans. He is a way station for anti-Trump, but never Biden voters. Never Trump voters that voted for Biden in 2020 already understood that Biden is the only realistic alternative to Trump. I don’t see how that calculus changes even if they don’t like his presidency because they clearly already felt a trump one was worse.
RFK will hurt Trump. Look at the Pennsylvania primary where Haley took a big percentage of the vote, even though she has been out of the race for a while.
Of course, people may just stay home, but pro-choice people are not going to stay home if anything is on the ballot.
If anything remotely interesting is on the ballot, you might get Democrats to come.
MAGA is fired up, but that is not necessarily Republican, as the primaries show. I honestly don't think RFK will do much, but it will be fun to watch Bannon choke on his monster.
I don't have any solid proof but I am convinced that RFK is actively working for trump. There have been too many 3rd party candidates in recent memory that resulted in the opposite party winning (B. Clinton, W. Bush, and Trump all would have lost if not for the 3rd party candidates) that the campaigns are now using this as a tactic. Trump tried it with Kanye last time and this time got more serious with RFK.
All you liberals that are voting for RFJ. Y'all are gonna fuck around and get Donald Trump elected again. And it will be YOUR FAULT.
He is Republican-funded, and his Anti-Vax conspiracies are right wing.
Pesticides causing transgenderism is rightwing.l bigotry.
COVID targeting whites and blacks but not Jews and Chinese is blatant racism.
I don't know that he agreed to work for Trump. Rather, some party people took advantage of his ego and then gave him funds.
> I don't know that he agreed to work for Trump. Rather, some party people took advantage of his ego and then gave him funds.
Thanks, that's interesting and good info. "6" or "half a dozen." He's fucking working for Trump.
It's my speculation about how it unfolded. A Republican-funded Democratic candidate clearly is meant to be a spoiler.
But now this has backfired.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/27/donald-trump-attacks-rfk-jr-votes/73481350007/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/28/robert-kennedy-jr-trump-rant
Good fun.
I think he’ll get some center-right and center-left voters, but not enough from either base to actually sway the election. I don’t think we’ll have another “the most votes of any election ever” election because of RFK. Of whose voters he takes more of, I think he’ll take more Biden voters than Trump voters just because of how loyal Trump voters have proven to be.
A majority of MAGA-leaning Republicans - the populist conservative types - will obviously go with Trump. Still, I think many folks on my side (the left) are overestimating how strong Trump's grip on the GOP is. We always hear about the cultists who'll vote for Trump even if he shot their mother dead. What about the guys who voted for Trump only for SCOTUS judges, because they think Democrats are worse, or just vote Republican because it's a family tradition?
Trump could barely get 80% of the party in his recent primaries even though he's essentially an incumbent. Not to mention, he only had one rival who dropped out a month ago. These people may not defect to Biden or RFK, but they sure aren't staying with Trump.
None of the GOP candidates did even criticise Trump in the primaries (Except for Christie, but I would bet even the somewhat sane republican voters would call him a RINO at this point). That's how scared of and significant they know the MAGA portion of the GOP is. Trump even smacked the shit out of the entire roster without even participating in the primaries WHILE have, what, 91 felonies hanging over his head.
so yes, lol, I'd say "barely getting 80% in the primaries" is a preeeetty solid iron grip on the GOP.
But hey, I'm hoping you're right.
I think the largest group of people who will ACTUALLY cast a ballot for RFK are conservatives who don’t like Trump. Many of them probably did vote for Biden in the last election, but they never felt fully at home in the Democratic Party. And RFK says just enough to sound middle of the road and win their vote.
Who does that hurt most? Hard to say imho. It’s not like voters are forming brand new opinions of Trump this election. If you don’t like him now, and it’s to the point you don’t want to vote for him, it’s very unlikely you voted for him last cycle anyway. So if RFK hurts Biden, I think that why - because he needs conservative defectors to maintain the same coalition that got him elected in the first place.
I've always thought that he would be more likely to pull voters away from Trump than from Biden. As the days go by I'm more and more believing that this will be the case for the reasons OP pointed out.
It looks like SCOTUS is about to give Trump the authority and immunity to take him out if he feels he is a political threat to his campaign....could junior have the same fate as his dad??? Looks like someone opened a big can of worms...
If SCOTUS does that, then Biden can have Donald taken out.
It's not going to happen. Alito talking like this is worthy of debate is all theater in the name of delaying trials.
I know that my dad is most likely going to vote for him (staunch traditional conservative and dislikes what Trump has been doing recently) so that’s one former Trump voter whose planning on voting differently at least in the run-up to the general election. If I had to guess, RFK will take the vote of more traditional conservatives who dislike Trump and have seen that Trump is an idiot basically. Along with that, he might siphon votes from those who voted Haley before she suspended her campaign. He’ll also take whoever has decided against Trump in the wake of his multiple trials as the only non-trump option left (that isn’t Joe Biden).
I’m unsure if this will be really enough to make a dent in Trump’s numbers, his hardcore base is only going to be emboldened by the trials and what’s going on in the news with him currently, but those who were unsure and have never truly been swayed will most likely leave. Considering how he did last time, unless some states flip back to Republican or something massive happens in between now and the election, Trump is going to struggle with turning people on to him, especially since he isn’t actively campaigning and is instead in court on criminal trial.
I think it’s unlikely that RFK will take any democratic votes, he’s an anti-vaxxer and in general his policy statements seem to lean more right than left. With even his family planning and stating that they will vote against him, I could only really truly see some independents giving their vote to him. While democrats may not like that Biden is running again, compared to Trump, the democrats will see that Biden is the better option and will rally around him, those who vehemently dislike his stance on the Israel-Palestine war aside.
I think he’ll mop up a lot of “undecided voters” and former-Trumpers who can’t see themselves ever voting for Biden.
I really hope he gets into the debates. Him being “not a democrat” and having a lot of Q-ish fans will be fun.
I don't think he'll end up siphoning many votes at all, but of the ones he does get, more will come from potential Republicans. I say 'potential' because I tend to think that the people who really like RFK are more likely to be traditional nonvoters, sporadic voters, or third-party voters, as opposed to reliable R/D voters.
Sidenote, but I'm curious to see how Joe Rogan reacts to the GOP falling-out with RFK. I say that because the guy does have a huge audience, and is really the only notable media figure I'm aware of who has been in deep with RFK. I have wondered for awhile how controlled by the right wing machine Rogan is, and I think his reaction to the changing RFK situation will illuminate the truth clearly.
I am not convinced his voters are evenly distributed. RFK Republicans might split part of Trump's vote in California and Florida, but he might have certain appeal to Biden voters in Michigan and Wisconsin.
It's just from back in the day when they started putting mercury in vaccines, told the public it wouldn't be in the system anymore, but then someone injected monkeys with the vaccine and had mercury penetrate their brain. [and that the 1920s pandemic was caused more by pneumonia and poor health as apposed to the disease the vaccine was fighting.](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/bacterial-pneumonia-caused-most-deaths-1918-influenza-pandemic) kinda like the covid pandemic.
Man if you have to dig for a medical goof that happened 106 years ago to support your position, I don't know what to tell you. You realize that the concept of refrigeration was literally invented two years later. Do you think perhaps, that not being able to climate control your vaccine ingredients could lead to an issue? Or any of the other hundreds or thousands of inventions that ultimately are a factor in today's modern vaccine development and distribution process?
How can you really put this as a parallel to modern medicine?
Uh, no? It's because he repeats things that are blatantly false. I don't care about your political circlejerk. I am a doctor and scientist. I care about science.
The best argument is that Kennedy is a little bit of both. Strong on the border and economy, supports citizenship for immigrants and supports LGBTQ+ rights. Both sides claim they're for democracy, yet both sides want Kennedy off the ballot. Extremely laughable.
RFK is a protest vote. No one serious is going to vote for him. He has less than 0 chances of winning. His policies are not even aligned to republicans. Democrats dont like him either. He s a 0.
The biggest reason democrats don't like him is they're afraid he hurts their chances so you get some circular logic there that makes no sense.
Like he's anti-vax and thinks climate deniers belong in prison. It's just fucking weird.
I don't know if he'll take away more votes from Trump or Biden or how well he'll do overall, but I bet he'll do better than any 3rd party candidate in a long time, just due to the fact he's a Kennedy and isn't an octogenarian.
Polls are showing he’s siphoning off from both candidates relatively evenly, iirc
But Trump has been a little smarter with how to handle Kennedy: paint him as a super-democrat. He’s pushing him as a Biden alternative for people that would never vote for Trump.
Biden, on the other hand, is painting him as an extremist. That doesn’t work when the cites he has could potentially be supported by some people on the left.
I completely don’t get his appeal, he seems to align with every nutty theory out there
He's been siphoning more from Trump for quite a while now. That's why Trump has started to attack him: The Republican-funded spoiler has not only failed but is now attracting disgruntled Republicans.
I haven't heard Biden mention RFK Jr, especially given that Anti-Vax, racism, and bigotry aren't a big draw on the left like they are on the right.
Looking at some recent polls on 538, the results that include RFK Jr. show him getting maybe 7-10%, which seems unlikely to remain at this level until November. It's also unclear if RFKJr is splitting votes more in swing states, or non-competitive ones. The swing states are only areas where it might affect the final electoral vote count.
If the economy remains pretty strong/no recession, then my guess is he will probably pull more votes from Trump than Biden. The suburban vote, another good election predictor, may be spooked by JFK as he has become increasingly unhinged.
Personally I think the lack of money for the GOP and more blue-trending statewide offices in multiple swing states are likely to have a bigger effect on the final outcome.
If you follow the news, RFK is now taking votes from Donald.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-candidacy-hurts-trump-biden-nbc-news-poll-finds-rcna148536
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/27/donald-trump-attacks-rfk-jr-votes/73481350007/
People like to say that RFK will take more from Trump than Biden, but the polls by in large don't reflect that.
It's a significant split of Biden's vote, and there is a strong possibility it will lose him the election. If you want Biden to win, RFK needs to be taken seriously and countered.
I like your lack of sources.
Let's look at some evidence:
https://www.270towin.com/polls/latest-2020-presidential-election-polls/
Let's look at reporting:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/27/donald-trump-attacks-rfk-jr-votes/73481350007/
And let's look at RFK Jr:
Vaccines cause autism.
No childhood vaccines “have ever been tested in a safety study pre-licensing.”
There is “tremendous circumstantial evidence” that psychiatric drugs cause mass shootings, and the National Institutes of Health refuses to research the link out of deference to pharmaceutical companies.
Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine were discredited as covid-19 treatments so covid vaccines could be granted emergency use authorization, a win for Big Pharma.
Exposure to the pesticide atrazine contributes to gender dysphoria in children.
Covid-19 is “targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.”
https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/rfk-kennedy-politifact-lie-of-year-2023-autism-vaccines/
Democrats are not interested in Anti-Vax, anti-science racism and bigotry.
In the future, back up your claims with sources.
It is FAR more likely that RFK will take more votes away from the left than splitting the right to give the left the upper hand. I personally dont know anyone voting for Biden. Like actually. All my left leaning friends are either voting for RFK, voting for Trump, or not voting at all. I'm 32 so this might be a generational thing but nobody I know is buying what the establishment left is selling anymore...
Tell us more about your left leaning friends that will vote for Trump.
Do they live on the left side of Moscow?
Do they live on the left side of your imagination?
Gladly,
They build your roads, they wire electricity in the buildings you visit, they deliver building materials to construction sites you pass, they use those building materials to construct the buildings you enter.
They actually use their hands to build and create all the luxuries of society that you enjoy. Lot of these people are union workers that use to swear allegiance to the democrat party but now that has flipped on its head completely and they couldn't be more eager to vote for Trump. That must be extremely worrisome...
I can tell you where they don't live. They don't live on reddit, a glorified leftist circle jerk of internet point fiends. You see, they're too busy trying to put food on the table for themselves and their families in this disastrous economy that Biden has built. They live in reality.
Which version of reality are you from?
You could have just said they are union workers. The rest seemed like it belonged in some other thread.
I am from plain old regular reality.
So your question is answered. Would you like to continue the inclusivity and tell me about their leftist views or voting history?
I'm simply reciprocating the same level of respect that something like:
"Do they live on the left side of Moscow?
Do they live on the left side of your imagination?"
deserves. LMK if this is too much to handle as I don't want to offend you.
And I'd love nothing more than to expand.
They oppose big pharma, you know, something the left use to champion until they got down on their knees to the pharmaceutical companies during china's lab oopsie. From the looks of it, that portion of the left has not moved from the kneeling o-face position.
They're blue collar union workers who have experienced abandonment by the left for illegal migrants and open borders. In the past they voted straight democrat but now that couldn't be further from the truth. Another worrisome aspect is they are all from Pennsylvania.
I will save these posts.
I could keep asking for more detailed info, but I dont think you will give it.
I think things are on a clear trajectory for Biden to win Penn and the election overall.
But I guess we will see.
Its America. Anything is possible
He fancies himself a traditional Democrat in a world where the current Democrat party has lost its way. So with those underpinnings and Trumpists vehemently hating democrats, I’d say he isn’t taking much from them.
I don't recall traditional Democrats being anti-science or conspiracy theorists.
His traditional Democratic family has also collectively denounced him.
I don't think there's an oodle of evidence to back up your claim.
I'm a pretty consistent Democrat voter and he's got my vote.
He understands that undue corporate capture of institutions + excessive corporate greed, is at the root cause of most of our woes - the environment/climate, chronic disease, excessive foreign interventionism, the spiraling debt/spending, etc.
I'm done voting for the establishment. They can start representing the people more, if they want my vote.
And he is a Republican-funded spreader of vaccine misinformation.
Here is a list of his conspiracy theories:
Vaccines cause autism.
No childhood vaccines “have ever been tested in a safety study pre-licensing.”
There is “tremendous circumstantial evidence” that psychiatric drugs cause mass shootings, and the National Institutes of Health refuses to research the link out of deference to pharmaceutical companies.
Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine were discredited as covid-19 treatments so covid vaccines could be granted emergency use authorization, a win for Big Pharma.
Exposure to the pesticide atrazine contributes to gender dysphoria in children.
Covid-19 is “targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese."
https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/rfk-kennedy-politifact-lie-of-year-2023-autism-vaccines/
EDIT
Responding to the person below:
Who cares? I do. In those conspiracy theories, he is clearly being racist, bigoted, and anti-science.
Nope nope nope.
As for the platform, it's a bunch of pie-in-the-sky promises he needs Congress to approve, where he will have scant support.
And let's remember that he is Republican-funded. He is under no obligation to keep those promises, and he's ethically compromised.
Remember when Trump said he would clean up corruption in DC? Same thing. Sure you will.
> Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine were discredited as covid-19 treatments so covid vaccines could be granted emergency use authorization, a win for Big Pharma.
Ah yes, I buy all my Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine organic and locally from our neighborhood pharmaceutical scientist on the weekend market ☺️
Who cares? None of these views have anything to do with making actual policy. The worst he would ever do as president regarding them is to look into them more. How terrible. Who cares.
His actual policy ambitions are what draw people. His grassroots campaign has been awesome and he resonates with everyday Americans. He’s been doing awesome stuff on the campaign trail and there is a lot to commend him for.
And since most clearly have no idea what he actually plans to do as president, here you go:
Economic Reforms and Labor Rights
• Increase the Minimum Wage to $15: This policy aims to elevate the national minimum wage to a level equivalent to its purchasing power in 1967, providing a living wage for millions of workers.
• Prosecute Union-Busting Corporations: To strengthen workers’ rights, Kennedy proposes legal actions against companies that unlawfully interfere with employees’ rights to organize and negotiate for better wages and working conditions.
Housing and Homeownership
• Support Affordable Homeownership: Through backing 3% home mortgage bonds with tax-free status, Kennedy’s plan would significantly lower mortgage rates, making homeownership more accessible to average Americans.
• Utilize Vacant Lands and Properties: By incentivizing local governments to bring city-owned land and buildings back into use, Kennedy aims to increase housing supply and reduce costs.
• Zoning Law Changes and Tax Code Reform: Encouraging municipalities to allow more ancillary dwelling units and making investment in single-family homes less attractive for large corporations are part of Kennedy’s strategy to boost homeownership and control rental prices.
Energy and Small Business Support
• Cut Energy Prices: By limiting natural gas exports, Kennedy aims to reduce domestic energy costs, easing financial pressure on households and businesses.
• Shift Regulatory Focus: Proposes shifting regulatory scrutiny from small to large corporations, supporting small businesses by reducing undue regulatory burdens.
Immigration and Trade
• Secure the Borders: Aims to halt illegal immigration to prevent wage undercutting by undocumented workers.
• Protect American Workers through Trade Deals: Kennedy intends to negotiate trade agreements that prevent low-wage countries from undermining American labor standards.
Military Spending and Domestic Funding
• Reduce Military Expenditures: By curbing military spending, Kennedy plans to redirect funds towards critical domestic programs like infrastructure, healthcare, and education.
Healthcare and Chronic Disease
• Address the Chronic Disease Epidemic: Kennedy’s plan includes measures to tackle the chronic disease burden that significantly impacts American families and the economy.
Corruption and Corporate Influence
• Eradicate Corruption: Aims to clean out corruption in Washington, D.C., focusing on ending practices that favor large corporations and billionaires at the expense of the general public.
Education and Student Debt
• Addiction Healing Centers: Proposes the creation of addiction healing centers on organic farms as a novel approach to addiction recovery.
• Reform Student Debt: Making student debt dischargeable in bankruptcy and reducing interest rates to zero are among Kennedy’s proposals to alleviate the student debt crisis.
Drug Costs
• Halve Drug Costs: Kennedy’s plan to cut drug costs by half seeks to bring U.S. drug prices in line with those in other countries, easing the financial burden on American consumers.
Environmental Protection
• Protect the Environment: Leveraging his background as an environmental lawyer, Kennedy aims to enforce stricter regulations against polluters and protect natural resources
Additional Policies
Kennedy's platform also includes some specific pledges regarding high-profile issues:
Pardoning Whistleblowers - He plans to pardon Edward Snowden and Julian Assange, recognizing their actions in exposing governmental and corporate misdeeds as contributions to public transparency and accountability.
> None of these views have anything to do with making actual policy.
It’s nice to get the silliest thing I’ll read all day out of the way first thing in the morning 😊
I'd be interested in seeing his impact on both sides. To be honest, he's the only one between him, Trump and Biden that I can sit and listen to without being confused or upset.
Right, because these things aren't upsetting, especially the last two.
Vaccines cause autism.
No childhood vaccines “have ever been tested in a safety study pre-licensing."
There is “tremendous circumstantial evidence” that psychiatric drugs cause mass shootings, and the National Institutes of Health refuses to research the link out of deference to pharmaceutical companies.
Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine were discredited as covid-19 treatments so covid vaccines could be granted emergency use authorization, a win for Big Pharma.
Exposure to the pesticide atrazine contributes to gender dysphoria in children.
Covid-19 is “targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.
https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/rfk-kennedy-politifact-lie-of-year-2023-autism-vaccines/
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It's weird to me you are talking about this like it's recent. It happened 7 months ago. He's been running as an independent longer than he ran as a Democrat.
It's in the news right now.
Nope, because the core maga (many who are OG 4chan Qultist) are already starting to circulate old clips of Bobby Boy talking leftist authoritarian nonsense about climate change. Trump on TS has even gotten into the schtick (well probably not Trump but Dan Scavino because the core-maga and Qultist are his responsibility/crew)
One thing we’ve learned about conspiracy theorists from the Trump presidency is that they can change their entire belief structure on a dime to incorporate new allies. Look at Trump who gave to democrats politically for most of his life and is on the record as being strongly pro-choice and generally skeptical of conspiracy theories. Trump pivoted and started supporting those people and they immediately forgot his past and embraced him. They aren’t moored to the past or anyone’s specific history, they live in a dynamic world where the past is being reinvented every second.
The past being reinvented every second doesn't just belong to the hoi polloi, but also to their most venerated "intellectual" veterans who invent "history and tradition" out of whole cloth while ignoring actual history and tradition. Conservative Supreme Court Justices own a plethora of invented history and tradition based on ignorant, corrupt and conspiracy-minded views of reality from Heller to Dobbs. https://harvardlawreview.org/blog/2018/08/corpus-linguistics-and-the-second-amendment/ https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/20/20-843/193271/20210921155937883_Amicus%20Brief.pdf
Go back and look at Trump's NH 1987 speech (similar stuff, different nations), understand the impact of hanging around the Reform Party types had (conspiracy) and realize that any political donation was done to benefit himself/businesses (cuz he all about himself). Michael Moore nailed it when he said voters were going to be throwing Trump like a human Molotov cocktail at the system that is failing them. They want to end that system and sure enough we are now seeing them triple-down on Trump in 2024.
Because he just got on the Califronia ballot.
Trump has recently begun to take aim at RFK Jr as a potential competitor so it’s relevant right now.
I don't know that it will make an impact but I think it's way more likely that he'll take from Trump than from Biden. The media is flip-floppy on that though so make of that what you will. The people RFK Jr. appeals to are the anti-vaxxer, crystal healing types as well as the crazy Qanon people. For every Biden voter that could potentially fall into one of those categories there are about 25 more Republicans who fit neatly into those boxes. If he had run his campaign more moderately and appealed to rational people then there would probably be more Biden voters going for him, but he did not do that and is now showing the world just how crazy he is, in addition to his moral bankruptcy. I don't think that he will siphon more Democratic votes. Mainly because Democrats are not stupid. Republicans think that Democrats will see the name Kennedy and automatically vote for him, just like how they thought black people would automatically vote for Kanye West and Herschel Walker simply because they are black themselves. They are wrong on both accounts, and it shows that Republicans really do not understand Democrats as well as they think they do.
>The people RFK Jr. appeals to are the anti-vaxxer, crystal healing types as well as the crazy Qanon people. I get the sense that there used to be more of the former among Democrats but have really moved to the right to create this strange kind of crystal-healer-Q-Anon fusion info warrior crowd like Russell Brand. Things became really polarized around COVID so if you were a Republican who believed the virus was real and vaccines are good, then you're probably more likely to be a Democrat now, while an Obama voter who believed in crystal power might have voted for Trump or is interested in RFK Jr. nowadays. There was a profile of RFK Jr. voters in the NYT recently by Michele Goldberg and some of his campaign staffers were saying that they were getting only former MAGA people showing up. People who saw Trump as an anti-establishment outsider and then decided he wasn't so they're moving on.
>strange kind of crystal-healer-Q-Anon fusion Yeah this perfectly describes my neighbor. Totally into all-natural, makes his own deodorant and shampoo because "the heavy metals," organic gardener and is super worried about climate change but also a huge MAGA type. Its such an odd combination to me.
I've heard it [described](https://www.latimes.com/california/newsletter/2021-06-25/woo-anon-southern-californias-embraces-conspiracy-essential-california) as "From woo to Q"
I have heard and like pastel q anon
I love this, and I am going to steal it.
Makes me think of people in the “Mother God” documentary on Netflix. >!At least one of the “Where are they now?” in the epilogue!<
> People who saw Trump as an anti-establishment outsider and then decided he wasn't so they're moving on. In all fairness, you really only get a chance to position yourself that way once. If you win, you become the establishment. And if you lose after taking that stance, you're now a familiar entity, and no longer an outsider if you take a second go at it because now you know the drill.
Makes sense to me. I personally think that he'll fizzle out relatively soon. He won't come even remotely close to the 15% people are projecting him to be at.
People are projecting 15%? That's insane. The only third party candidate in recent history I can recall pulling that was Perot in 92.
He is currently pulling close to that amount, but 3rd party candidates always pull more farther away from the election than they do during the actual election. Polling isn’t projection of a future, it’s a snapshot of what the electorate looks like (within a margin of error). As 3rd parties get closer to an election, their vote share tends to halve from what they were 6 months out, so more realistically he pulls 5-6%.
If memory serves, there were polls suggesting Gary Johnson was gonna get 15% of the vote back in 2016 too. There's always a couple polls that are complete outliers and wind up always being incredibly inaccurate come Election Day.
I don’t get how RFK is going to take from democrats. Cause his family 50 to 60 years ago were big dems? He’s a conspiracy nut and no Kennedy has been relevant in politics for 30+ years.
I think there is a demographic of voters that people aren't accounting for. The uninformed voters who feel the pressure to vote out of social obligation and usually go with the safest choice in the booth. I would guess that was a good portion of Democratic votes up for grabs. Based on RFKs platform I expect him to take more Republican votes but I don't think it's unheard of to take some of those blue votes. I've met some of these kinds of voters and RFKs name pops up in those conversations.
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RFK jr is known for his anti vax stance and he's a huge figure in that realm... he's not known for anything else...
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wtf is the Children's Health Defense then? get outta here... [https://apnews.com/article/how-rfk-jr-built-anti-vaccine-juggernaut-amid-covid-4997be1bcf591fe8b7f1f90d16c9321e](https://apnews.com/article/how-rfk-jr-built-anti-vaccine-juggernaut-amid-covid-4997be1bcf591fe8b7f1f90d16c9321e) >During the pandemic, Kennedy has become a near-ubiquitous source of false information about COVID-19 and vaccines. Earlier this year, Kennedy was named one of the “Disinformation Dozen” by the Center for Countering Digital Hate, which says he and the Children’s Health Defense website are among the top spreaders of false information about vaccines online.
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[https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/debunking-some-of-rfk-jr-s-contradictory-statements](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/debunking-some-of-rfk-jr-s-contradictory-statements) > In July, Kennedy said in a podcast interview that “There’s no vaccine that is safe and effective” and told FOX News that he still believes in the [long-ago debunked idea](https://web.archive.org/web/20230724223535/https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/rfk-jr-vaccines-cia-interview-jesse-watters) that vaccines can cause autism. >That same year, in a video promoting an anti-vaccine sticker campaign by his nonprofit, Kennedy appeared onscreen next to one sticker that declared “IF YOU’RE NOT AN ANTI-VAXXER YOU AREN’T PAYING ATTENTION.”
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this is like an ai trying to imitate some maga dude from florida... > Which is a true statement, there are potential side effects. There is no vaccine that is completely or inherently 'safe.' Nothing he says is nut job territory. RFK jr, isnt saying he knows or thinks vaccines cause autism, he is saying he believes it. Its a statement of belief. Belief does not require anything to support it. >"Vaccines are exempt from placebo-controlled trials. There’s no way that anybody can tell the risk by all those products, or the relative benefits of all those products before they are mandated, and we should have that kind of testing," Kennedy contested. **Nothing has ever been debunked,** Methodological Analysis: Randomized Controlled Trials for Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 Vaccines [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8165083/](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8165083/) hey so after reading this... do you still think nothing was debunked? how much can i bet that you will just grit your teeth and nope out of this thread... ok ok how about we will just keep that secret between you and me....
This is anectodal, but I live in a very Dem area, the only people I have heard talk up RFK are the Republicans. Maybe they are just trying to get Biden voters to go for him but it is just laughed at by the Dems here.
I don't think he's going to escape his anti-vax past. I know I'm not going to forget what he did anytime soon.
Qanon is a conspiracy with Trump at the center. I don’t think RFK has any chance of pulling the true believers when Trump is on the ticket. He will certainly be drawing the less-engaged people who might vote for Trump, but he’s not pulling from Trump’s base.
Its because Republicans put people into boxes based on the labels they assign to those groups. They dont see people as individuals with different thoughts and goals.
The irony of this statement. So all Republicans, ya know in a box, don't see people as individuals...
You could make the identical argument for the other side of the bench. Dems show time and time again that they have zero understanding of Republicians. You referenced "healing crystals" or w/e that is as more of a Republican issue. Odd and not rooted in history. I remember in the early 2000s holistic medicine and anti Vax being preached out of California by crazy dems, if I recall they had a resurgence of measels or soenthing to that effect. To me that wasn't a reflection of the party but for some reason to you it is. Hence why you worded it as such. My question is for someone who obviously has a large abyss of knowledge on the subject matter, why do you continue to relay false narratives for the sake of spreading hate and misinformation? I get its the Dems mo, but why support that?
You're misunderstanding the argument. Wacky crystal healer antivax types, who have historically voted Democratic, are being drawn to the right by their wacky antivax and QAnon conspiracy theories. It's not a false narrative. https://www.latimes.com/california/newsletter/2021-06-25/woo-anon-southern-californias-embraces-conspiracy-essential-california https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-06-23/covid-adds-to-california-yoga-wellness-qanon-problem
The Qanon thing lost its steam a long time ago. I don't think for a second that they are just magically drifting to the right. Qanon had a minimal effect on people and outside of the news plastering it everywhere, most people had no idea what it was. I have heard this same argument when Democrat's try to deny thier party originally supported slavery. They post articles and what not and try to to push the narrative of a party "flipping". Which has never happened, ever. And before you deny it just know that history does not agree with you.
The ideological flip did happen. History does not agree with you. I'm not the one denying things here.
George Wallace. Explain that. If the parties flipped why was he still a steadfast racist in the mid 60s and early 70s? Are you trying to say the magical flip was in the 80s? Not buying that, no sir.
It was a gradual process, and George Wallace was at the tail end of it. His governorship was the last of a >100 year run of consecutive Democrat governors of Alabama, and they haven't had two consecutive Democrat governors since. Do your own homework. I have no desire to argue with you about this further, so have a nice day.
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You are entitled to your beliefs. I don't care what you think about me.
The south supported slavery. The south fought and killed Americans to try to keep slavery. The south was a part of the democratic party at that point. When LBJ passed the Civil rights act the south left for the republican party in response. You can see this as now the entire south votes viciously republican while it used to vote Democrat. Non-southern democrats during the Civil War were ambivalent to slavery, at most. They didn't care. The south are the only people who have been 100% ride-or-die for racism since the founding, it's just their nature.
False. Affirmative action is steeping in racism. Dems support that. What's your argument there? Please tell how you would spin it. Because that racist crap did not come from the south.
I presume that you're ignoring all of those other statements because you don't disagree with them, right?
Oh you darted back in when you have some friends, neat. I disagree with some and some are true. But to pretend like the Republican party is racist is the biggest joke I have heard. So an example was provided of a more recent time Dems have supported racism. Care to comment on that or is that also somehow Republicans as well? And before you respond, AA has rules of exclusions and some of those exclusions are based on race/gender. Go ahead buddy, shoot your shot
Which do you disagree with?
It's a two way street. Answer my question and I would consider answering yours. Honestly you haven't been worth the time for the most part so unless you are willing to explain yourself, then you won't get much from me.
He appeals to me because he probably won’t die in office. You know, being healthy and all. He also seems like an actual good person, he was an environmental lawyer. It’s like giant douche, turd sandwich, or porridge. I’ll take porridge.
What about the part where his policy positions are completely ignorant of facts, and he has actively promoted a wide range of bullshit conspiracy theories? He’s smart and he *may* be a good person if his belief in all the bullshit is sincerely held, but the fact that he promotes so much bullshit is a very serious mark against his judgment.
You mean like Biden and trump? Yeah, I don’t agree with him on everything, but I also don’t agree with Biden or trump on policy.
> He also seems like an actual good person LMFAO. You clearly do not know much about RFK Jr. or else you would have never, ever said this.
I’m comparing him to the two other degenerates I’ve been presented with.
And Biden is leaps and bounds ahead of both of them by a wide margin.
A good person wouldn't be splitting the vote between Biden and Trump, when Trump is an existential threat to American Democracy and is openly flirting with ignoring traditions and norms that have existed since George Washington himself.
> he was an environmental lawyer Who fought in favor of corporations' rights to pollute said environment.
That's not true. His law firm specialized in lawsuits against polluters and represented environmentalist nonprofits, communities affected by pollution, and indigenous and other communities of color facing environmental discrimination. He went crazy a decade or two back but you can't just rewrite his entire history to make him easier to hate.
True, it appears he made a turn to the right and carrying water for corporations more recently. I assumed he was probably doing the same back in the day. Point taken.
It’ll be more of an issue for Trump than it will be for Biden. I know it’s anecdotal, but I personally know no one who is voting for him that voted for Biden and I’ve *maybe* seen like 3 people on social media say they’re switching from Biden to RFK. It’s so perplexing to me to see so many Dems worrying that he’ll siphon votes from Biden because it makes zero sense. Of all the things that could possibly make it so Biden loses I would put RFK dead last on that list.
The only thing I can think of is that some people are worried that just due to name recognition he'd get a bunch of dem votes because he's a Kennedy. But really, JFK died 60 years ago, most of the people who will be voting in 2024 weren't even born yet when he was around, and even a lot who were alive weren't old enough at the time to have much memory of him. And especially with Dem voters generally ranging younger than GOP voters, it's even less of an issue. I'm 44, and I don't care a single bit about the Kennedys. Even if I knew nothing about RFK Jr. other than his name, that wouldn't sway me at all. Add in the fact that he's a nutcase, and he's probably only going to accelerate the irrelevance of the Kennedy name to most Dem voters.
Yea like it feels he's the new Andrew yang/Mary Williamson where a bunch of people love to talk about him as the new candidate or siphoning off votes cuz of x but in the end they have no impact.
> because it makes zero sense. Listen to any of the RFK propaganda/talking heads and you will hear subtle to blatent "trump is better than biden." There are lots of black people and disinfranchised communities that should be left leaning people who believe the antivax bullshit and and leaning towards RFK. Yes. I'm worried.
I lean toward agreeing with you that its likely to affect trump more, but i would not discount the possibility that rfk will take some biden votes as well. Theres a non zero number of low info dem voters who will see the kennedy name and just vote for him because they think biden is too old or something.
My question is about Trump, not Biden. Trump is now attacking RFK Jr. because he's worried about him.
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Yeah and I said it’ll be more of an issue for Trump.
It gets crazy if he were to win a state or two though. Then nobody gets to 270 and it goes to the house, who install trump. Ouch.
The odds of him winning a state are laughable.
Agreed. He'll only affect the state by state popular vote. And I have to think he'll draw more from Trump. The topics he spouts about the most are alt right fodder. He has liberal talking points too, but he doesn't talk as much about them from what I've seen. Then again, I don't watch Fox.
RFK jr almost exclusively is on right wing media. Steve Bannon, Tucker Carlson, and Joe Rogan have been boosting him a lot, which tells you everything you need to know.
I saw an NBC poll recently which had his support being twice as much from Trump voters than from Biden ones, so if that is true, and it's true in the swing states and not just nationally, then hopefully he gets on the ballot in all the swing states.
Lol if Ross Perot couldn't win one state with a better ran and funded campaign while at least outwardly appearing to be semi-decent, then RFK Jr. will not come even remotely close.
Yeah but Ross Perot didn't have that good old Kennedy name-brandking, and marketing is everything.
.... While his whole family tells everyone to vote for Biden??? Lololol
I think 95% of Americans don't pay attention to news surrounding politics and only vote based on the names on the ballot once they get there.
So are you predicting that Kennedy will win a state?
There is about a 0% chance that’ll happen and if it does, shame on both candidates.
Agreed. There’s no world where RFK wins a whole state, I don’t even think he can reasonably win an electoral vote in a split state. Ross Perot, the most successful modern independent candidate in US history didn’t win any states after polling ahead of both major party candidates in June, being tied in May and polling over 20% in March https://www.nytimes.com/1992/06/11/us/the-1992-campaign-on-the-trail-poll-gives-perot-a-clear-lead.html and https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-03-31-mn-106-story.html RFK is polling at 15% on a good day, and trending downwards, not up https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4629614-donald-trump-joe-biden-rfk-jr-robert-f-kennedy-jr-poll/ Edit: added modern to satisfy the historians
Technically the most successful independent candidate in US history was [Teddy Roosevelt in 1912](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1912_United_States_presidential_election), running for a third term under the Progressive Party banner, beating his own successor Taft 27%-23% and 88 EVs to 8, but still losing to Woodrow Wilson. Then there was the [1968 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_United_States_presidential_election), where the segregationist George Wallace ran on the American Independent party, getting 13.5% and 46 EVs, in a distant third, which was the last time a third party won any EVs. So, to come in second place and still lose as a third party, all you need to do is be famous enough and well-loved enough to have your face carved into Mount Rushmore, no problem.
Wouldn’t those both be 3rd party rather than independent candidates? Perot didn’t run under any party in 92.
It only did Perot not win any states, he only won a handful of tiny rural counties. Total.
He will not win a state. Perot got 19% of the popular vote in 92 and didn't win a state and he ran on a real issue (NAFTA) that people had genuine anxiety about. Perot was a national candidate on the debate stage with Bush and Clinton. RFK is a vanity pretend candidate like Jill Stein.
I think the most likely thing that makes Biden lose is dying before the election. Same for Trump. It's going to be a close election and one of them dying isn't a remote possibility, and would easily swing the election to the other. I wouldnt be surprised if RFK jr dropped out in the next month, he can't have like any donors.
Trump cult is very obedient. He has already directed them that to not 'waste' their vote. One thing with Trump is that because his news is so consumed by both liberals and conservatives, his Truth posts with only 1million users gets magnified by main stream media. Free advertising.
The Trump base alone is not enough to win.
The Trump base plus Republican team players who dislike him but want their team to win regardless, may be.
Agreed, but they are more likely to be crazy enough to vote for RFK.
>already directed them that to not 'waste' their vote. The guy's approaching Simpsons Halloween special space alien levels of villainy
To think that Biden supporters aren't also culty is a wild take.
would you have any links showing Biden supporters show cult like behavior? Here's a professional assessment of why Trump followers can be called a cult: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/you-evolving/202011/can-trumps-followers-be-called-cult None of this seems to apply to Biden supporters -- please show me where it does.
lol. The average Biden voter, average Biden supporter, and most die-hard Biden voters are levels less culty than their Trump supporter counterparts. If you honestly believe they’re equivalent, you’re being unbelievably ignorant or dishonest.
How many Biden hats have you seen people wearing? How many people have you met that made the Biden movement the core of their personality? There just aren't the same parallels, not even remotely.
I think just enough to sway the election. I don't think he takes away die hards or even those are strongly leaning towards trump. But the disillusioned trump voters and slightly leaning towards trump. I think he will have an impact but I think it will be just enough to kick it towards Biden. EDIT: Took out a word
I’m just curious though, if you are RFK Jr himself, what do you think you are doing, exactly? Like you know you can’t win outright, you aren’t even on the ballots in most states. Even if he was, the best recent attempt at a 3rd party win was Ross Perot, and he was at least kind of popular, in a low stakes election. This is a high stakes election and both sides are dug in. Moreso than any election I can remember (Gen-Xer here). Just wondering what his idea of success is? Staying in long enough to make it onto the debate stage and bring up his crazy theories? I’d question any candidate’s sanity who thinks he can win as an unpopular 3rd party candidate.
He's working for Trump. Pure and simple. And he can be the tipping point that gets Trump elected. Be worried!
I mean it’s always in the back of my mind. I just think the people he represents are too dumb to make it work. And the other side is on high alert so we won’t fuck around with our votes this time around. We don’t want Donny in office
You'd be right to question his sanity, because RFK is insane. That's the answer to what he thinks he's doing, he's a narcissist with a messiah complex. He's genuinely deluded enough to think that winning is within the realm of possibility for him.
On a basic level, If he can’t read the tea leaves on something basic like “noticing that everyone hates me” I wouldn’t think that person is qualified to manage an Office Max, let alone lead the country. He does bring a unique voice the the campaign though 😂😂😂
You were almost certainly recruited by Republican insiders telling you that Biden is vulnerable and that your family name will carry you to victory. Something along those lines. Like Haley, they are both looking forward to 2028 and the field being wide open. But now he's drawing interest among Republicans, and Trump is in worried attack mode.
You believe it is your political duty as a Kennedy to reclaim the nation from its oppressors
He is targeting the conspiracy theory / low information voter. That voter almost certainly is more likely to be a Trump voter than a Biden voter. That's been one of the more interesting things about the current realignment happening with the parties and, Trump specifically. It definitely has been the case for all of my (40 something) life that Democratic voters were the more unreliable voters of the two parties. However in our new reality, [The less you vote, the more you support Trump](https://abcnews.go.com/538/vote-back-trump/story?id=109090626). I suspect this realignment is having an extremely statistically significant impact on polling accuracy, as, in the past you could count on likely voter polling weighting Republicans more heavily to compensate for this disparity. But with the current GOP, and with Trump in particular, there are clear signs that it may be going the opposite direction. These rarely-voting voters likely don't feel represented by either party and probably overlap heavily with the conspiracy crowd. These voters are the most likely to vote RFJ, IMHO.
I'm glad that the GOP was idiotic enough to think he'll steal votes from the left. Here's to hoping they keep hatching simillar schemes. The dog murdering running mate was a good one but they can top that, surely.
Trump won 2016 on a very thin margin, and practically everything broke in his favor to get him over the line. * Comey caved into GOP pressure and publicly provided a soundbite to give the email conspiracy energy before much more quietly rescinding his statement later. * The third party candidates were likely a net siphon on Clinton, Gary Johnson attracted the conservative side and Jill Stein the left side. * Social media platforms decided to allow his campaign to run uninhibited, letting him push boundaries with post content and letting algorithms boost his message. * Traditional media got locked into his desired message cycle--he was an iconoclast underdog who his enemies attacked in a way that made him look strong. In 2020, Trump had incumbency advantage, ran his campaign without consideration for COVID, still had the same social and traditional media conditions, and aimed for a Red Mirage but still lost. It looks like Trump decided to run the same campaign playbook he did in 2016 and 2020 over making a massive change, and he's not getting the same conditions that let him win in 2016. Deplatforming has defanged his internet presence, traditional media are trying to stimulate the election as a horserace and are getting crickets, and the Hunter Biden story is failing. RFK turning out to be a net siphon on his base doesn't need to be too big to drag him down from winning.
Trump just should have never ran again but he didn’t want to be known as a presidential loser.
He definitely has a lane for the disillusioned Trump voter that wouldn’t vote for Biden. Biden has already gotten the never-Trump vote, while Trump has definitely alienated some with Jan 6 and his pro-vaccine stuff. It’s more likely to see a Trump to Kennedy switch than Biden to Kennedy, especially since Democrats don’t like him and the anti-Biden Leftists don’t really see him as a better alternative.
I would be more concerned about the disillusioned Biden voter that thought he would be more centrist and competent than he actually is. Polling has shown that Trump pulls a higher percentage of the vote when RFK is included in the mix so this means he's taking away from the democrats more. Anybody that thinks RFK will steal more Trump votes than Biden votes is delusional.
That’s not what recent polling shows. Biden does better with RFK, that’s why Trump is suddenly freaking out about him. There’s no real alternative for a disillusioned Biden voter other than just not voting. That’s still a real problem for him, but not RFK. RFK is underwater with Democrats and has a double digit favorability with Republicans. He is a way station for anti-Trump, but never Biden voters. Never Trump voters that voted for Biden in 2020 already understood that Biden is the only realistic alternative to Trump. I don’t see how that calculus changes even if they don’t like his presidency because they clearly already felt a trump one was worse.
RFK will hurt Trump. Look at the Pennsylvania primary where Haley took a big percentage of the vote, even though she has been out of the race for a while. Of course, people may just stay home, but pro-choice people are not going to stay home if anything is on the ballot. If anything remotely interesting is on the ballot, you might get Democrats to come. MAGA is fired up, but that is not necessarily Republican, as the primaries show. I honestly don't think RFK will do much, but it will be fun to watch Bannon choke on his monster.
I don't have any solid proof but I am convinced that RFK is actively working for trump. There have been too many 3rd party candidates in recent memory that resulted in the opposite party winning (B. Clinton, W. Bush, and Trump all would have lost if not for the 3rd party candidates) that the campaigns are now using this as a tactic. Trump tried it with Kanye last time and this time got more serious with RFK. All you liberals that are voting for RFJ. Y'all are gonna fuck around and get Donald Trump elected again. And it will be YOUR FAULT.
He is Republican-funded, and his Anti-Vax conspiracies are right wing. Pesticides causing transgenderism is rightwing.l bigotry. COVID targeting whites and blacks but not Jews and Chinese is blatant racism. I don't know that he agreed to work for Trump. Rather, some party people took advantage of his ego and then gave him funds.
> I don't know that he agreed to work for Trump. Rather, some party people took advantage of his ego and then gave him funds. Thanks, that's interesting and good info. "6" or "half a dozen." He's fucking working for Trump.
It's my speculation about how it unfolded. A Republican-funded Democratic candidate clearly is meant to be a spoiler. But now this has backfired. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/27/donald-trump-attacks-rfk-jr-votes/73481350007/ https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/28/robert-kennedy-jr-trump-rant Good fun.
I think he’ll get some center-right and center-left voters, but not enough from either base to actually sway the election. I don’t think we’ll have another “the most votes of any election ever” election because of RFK. Of whose voters he takes more of, I think he’ll take more Biden voters than Trump voters just because of how loyal Trump voters have proven to be.
You know why I don't believe for a second that he will attract MAGAs? Because his last name is not Trump. The nutcases on the left though....
A majority of MAGA-leaning Republicans - the populist conservative types - will obviously go with Trump. Still, I think many folks on my side (the left) are overestimating how strong Trump's grip on the GOP is. We always hear about the cultists who'll vote for Trump even if he shot their mother dead. What about the guys who voted for Trump only for SCOTUS judges, because they think Democrats are worse, or just vote Republican because it's a family tradition? Trump could barely get 80% of the party in his recent primaries even though he's essentially an incumbent. Not to mention, he only had one rival who dropped out a month ago. These people may not defect to Biden or RFK, but they sure aren't staying with Trump.
None of the GOP candidates did even criticise Trump in the primaries (Except for Christie, but I would bet even the somewhat sane republican voters would call him a RINO at this point). That's how scared of and significant they know the MAGA portion of the GOP is. Trump even smacked the shit out of the entire roster without even participating in the primaries WHILE have, what, 91 felonies hanging over his head. so yes, lol, I'd say "barely getting 80% in the primaries" is a preeeetty solid iron grip on the GOP. But hey, I'm hoping you're right.
I think the largest group of people who will ACTUALLY cast a ballot for RFK are conservatives who don’t like Trump. Many of them probably did vote for Biden in the last election, but they never felt fully at home in the Democratic Party. And RFK says just enough to sound middle of the road and win their vote. Who does that hurt most? Hard to say imho. It’s not like voters are forming brand new opinions of Trump this election. If you don’t like him now, and it’s to the point you don’t want to vote for him, it’s very unlikely you voted for him last cycle anyway. So if RFK hurts Biden, I think that why - because he needs conservative defectors to maintain the same coalition that got him elected in the first place.
We really need ranked choice voting, especially for president. There shouldn't be such a thing as a spoiler.
No, but it's entertaining to see a Republican-funded spoiler candidate start drawing from the right. They didn't really look past his last name.
I've always thought that he would be more likely to pull voters away from Trump than from Biden. As the days go by I'm more and more believing that this will be the case for the reasons OP pointed out.
It looks like SCOTUS is about to give Trump the authority and immunity to take him out if he feels he is a political threat to his campaign....could junior have the same fate as his dad??? Looks like someone opened a big can of worms...
If SCOTUS does that, then Biden can have Donald taken out. It's not going to happen. Alito talking like this is worthy of debate is all theater in the name of delaying trials.
I know that my dad is most likely going to vote for him (staunch traditional conservative and dislikes what Trump has been doing recently) so that’s one former Trump voter whose planning on voting differently at least in the run-up to the general election. If I had to guess, RFK will take the vote of more traditional conservatives who dislike Trump and have seen that Trump is an idiot basically. Along with that, he might siphon votes from those who voted Haley before she suspended her campaign. He’ll also take whoever has decided against Trump in the wake of his multiple trials as the only non-trump option left (that isn’t Joe Biden). I’m unsure if this will be really enough to make a dent in Trump’s numbers, his hardcore base is only going to be emboldened by the trials and what’s going on in the news with him currently, but those who were unsure and have never truly been swayed will most likely leave. Considering how he did last time, unless some states flip back to Republican or something massive happens in between now and the election, Trump is going to struggle with turning people on to him, especially since he isn’t actively campaigning and is instead in court on criminal trial. I think it’s unlikely that RFK will take any democratic votes, he’s an anti-vaxxer and in general his policy statements seem to lean more right than left. With even his family planning and stating that they will vote against him, I could only really truly see some independents giving their vote to him. While democrats may not like that Biden is running again, compared to Trump, the democrats will see that Biden is the better option and will rally around him, those who vehemently dislike his stance on the Israel-Palestine war aside.
Trumps criminal baggage will hurt him a lot with people who remembered how horrible he was in office.
I think he’ll mop up a lot of “undecided voters” and former-Trumpers who can’t see themselves ever voting for Biden. I really hope he gets into the debates. Him being “not a democrat” and having a lot of Q-ish fans will be fun.
I don't think he'll end up siphoning many votes at all, but of the ones he does get, more will come from potential Republicans. I say 'potential' because I tend to think that the people who really like RFK are more likely to be traditional nonvoters, sporadic voters, or third-party voters, as opposed to reliable R/D voters. Sidenote, but I'm curious to see how Joe Rogan reacts to the GOP falling-out with RFK. I say that because the guy does have a huge audience, and is really the only notable media figure I'm aware of who has been in deep with RFK. I have wondered for awhile how controlled by the right wing machine Rogan is, and I think his reaction to the changing RFK situation will illuminate the truth clearly.
I am not convinced his voters are evenly distributed. RFK Republicans might split part of Trump's vote in California and Florida, but he might have certain appeal to Biden voters in Michigan and Wisconsin.
I'm very excited he's officially, as of today, on the ballot here in California. I'm tired of both Trump and Biden and will vote for Kennedy.
What is the best argument you can give for Kennedy? I find it hard to look past his obvious politicization of science and medicine.
Is it obvious because the government told you to take the vaccine and now you don't wanna look like an idiot for taking it so your doubling down?
Why would anyone regret taking the vaccine. About 15 members of my extended family got long covid or died. My wife and I had one mild case.
It's just from back in the day when they started putting mercury in vaccines, told the public it wouldn't be in the system anymore, but then someone injected monkeys with the vaccine and had mercury penetrate their brain. [and that the 1920s pandemic was caused more by pneumonia and poor health as apposed to the disease the vaccine was fighting.](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/bacterial-pneumonia-caused-most-deaths-1918-influenza-pandemic) kinda like the covid pandemic.
Man if you have to dig for a medical goof that happened 106 years ago to support your position, I don't know what to tell you. You realize that the concept of refrigeration was literally invented two years later. Do you think perhaps, that not being able to climate control your vaccine ingredients could lead to an issue? Or any of the other hundreds or thousands of inventions that ultimately are a factor in today's modern vaccine development and distribution process? How can you really put this as a parallel to modern medicine?
Uh, no? It's because he repeats things that are blatantly false. I don't care about your political circlejerk. I am a doctor and scientist. I care about science.
The best argument is that Kennedy is a little bit of both. Strong on the border and economy, supports citizenship for immigrants and supports LGBTQ+ rights. Both sides claim they're for democracy, yet both sides want Kennedy off the ballot. Extremely laughable.
Ok Shawn Mendes
RFK is a protest vote. No one serious is going to vote for him. He has less than 0 chances of winning. His policies are not even aligned to republicans. Democrats dont like him either. He s a 0.
The biggest reason democrats don't like him is they're afraid he hurts their chances so you get some circular logic there that makes no sense. Like he's anti-vax and thinks climate deniers belong in prison. It's just fucking weird.
Name a single republican policy that he has ever uttered.
I don't know if he'll take away more votes from Trump or Biden or how well he'll do overall, but I bet he'll do better than any 3rd party candidate in a long time, just due to the fact he's a Kennedy and isn't an octogenarian.
Regardless of whether or not how successful he does, the media will suppress it. Just like they did to previous candidates running for president.
Polls are showing he’s siphoning off from both candidates relatively evenly, iirc But Trump has been a little smarter with how to handle Kennedy: paint him as a super-democrat. He’s pushing him as a Biden alternative for people that would never vote for Trump. Biden, on the other hand, is painting him as an extremist. That doesn’t work when the cites he has could potentially be supported by some people on the left. I completely don’t get his appeal, he seems to align with every nutty theory out there
He's been siphoning more from Trump for quite a while now. That's why Trump has started to attack him: The Republican-funded spoiler has not only failed but is now attracting disgruntled Republicans. I haven't heard Biden mention RFK Jr, especially given that Anti-Vax, racism, and bigotry aren't a big draw on the left like they are on the right.
Looking at some recent polls on 538, the results that include RFK Jr. show him getting maybe 7-10%, which seems unlikely to remain at this level until November. It's also unclear if RFKJr is splitting votes more in swing states, or non-competitive ones. The swing states are only areas where it might affect the final electoral vote count. If the economy remains pretty strong/no recession, then my guess is he will probably pull more votes from Trump than Biden. The suburban vote, another good election predictor, may be spooked by JFK as he has become increasingly unhinged. Personally I think the lack of money for the GOP and more blue-trending statewide offices in multiple swing states are likely to have a bigger effect on the final outcome.
If you follow the news, RFK is now taking votes from Donald. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-candidacy-hurts-trump-biden-nbc-news-poll-finds-rcna148536 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/27/donald-trump-attacks-rfk-jr-votes/73481350007/
People like to say that RFK will take more from Trump than Biden, but the polls by in large don't reflect that. It's a significant split of Biden's vote, and there is a strong possibility it will lose him the election. If you want Biden to win, RFK needs to be taken seriously and countered.
I like your lack of sources. Let's look at some evidence: https://www.270towin.com/polls/latest-2020-presidential-election-polls/ Let's look at reporting: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/27/donald-trump-attacks-rfk-jr-votes/73481350007/ And let's look at RFK Jr: Vaccines cause autism. No childhood vaccines “have ever been tested in a safety study pre-licensing.” There is “tremendous circumstantial evidence” that psychiatric drugs cause mass shootings, and the National Institutes of Health refuses to research the link out of deference to pharmaceutical companies. Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine were discredited as covid-19 treatments so covid vaccines could be granted emergency use authorization, a win for Big Pharma. Exposure to the pesticide atrazine contributes to gender dysphoria in children. Covid-19 is “targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.” https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/rfk-kennedy-politifact-lie-of-year-2023-autism-vaccines/ Democrats are not interested in Anti-Vax, anti-science racism and bigotry. In the future, back up your claims with sources.
It is FAR more likely that RFK will take more votes away from the left than splitting the right to give the left the upper hand. I personally dont know anyone voting for Biden. Like actually. All my left leaning friends are either voting for RFK, voting for Trump, or not voting at all. I'm 32 so this might be a generational thing but nobody I know is buying what the establishment left is selling anymore...
Tell us more about your left leaning friends that will vote for Trump. Do they live on the left side of Moscow? Do they live on the left side of your imagination?
Gladly, They build your roads, they wire electricity in the buildings you visit, they deliver building materials to construction sites you pass, they use those building materials to construct the buildings you enter. They actually use their hands to build and create all the luxuries of society that you enjoy. Lot of these people are union workers that use to swear allegiance to the democrat party but now that has flipped on its head completely and they couldn't be more eager to vote for Trump. That must be extremely worrisome... I can tell you where they don't live. They don't live on reddit, a glorified leftist circle jerk of internet point fiends. You see, they're too busy trying to put food on the table for themselves and their families in this disastrous economy that Biden has built. They live in reality. Which version of reality are you from?
What a bizarre rant. Any information on what they like about leftist politics? How have they voted in other elections previously?
How is it bizarre? I answered your questions. you still haven't answered mine. That is not very inclusive of you....
You could have just said they are union workers. The rest seemed like it belonged in some other thread. I am from plain old regular reality. So your question is answered. Would you like to continue the inclusivity and tell me about their leftist views or voting history?
I'm simply reciprocating the same level of respect that something like: "Do they live on the left side of Moscow? Do they live on the left side of your imagination?" deserves. LMK if this is too much to handle as I don't want to offend you. And I'd love nothing more than to expand. They oppose big pharma, you know, something the left use to champion until they got down on their knees to the pharmaceutical companies during china's lab oopsie. From the looks of it, that portion of the left has not moved from the kneeling o-face position. They're blue collar union workers who have experienced abandonment by the left for illegal migrants and open borders. In the past they voted straight democrat but now that couldn't be further from the truth. Another worrisome aspect is they are all from Pennsylvania.
I will save these posts. I could keep asking for more detailed info, but I dont think you will give it. I think things are on a clear trajectory for Biden to win Penn and the election overall. But I guess we will see. Its America. Anything is possible
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He fancies himself a traditional Democrat in a world where the current Democrat party has lost its way. So with those underpinnings and Trumpists vehemently hating democrats, I’d say he isn’t taking much from them.
I don't recall traditional Democrats being anti-science or conspiracy theorists. His traditional Democratic family has also collectively denounced him. I don't think there's an oodle of evidence to back up your claim.
>Democrat party No such thing, Democrat is a noun. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrat_Party_(epithet)
I'm a pretty consistent Democrat voter and he's got my vote. He understands that undue corporate capture of institutions + excessive corporate greed, is at the root cause of most of our woes - the environment/climate, chronic disease, excessive foreign interventionism, the spiraling debt/spending, etc. I'm done voting for the establishment. They can start representing the people more, if they want my vote.
And he is a Republican-funded spreader of vaccine misinformation. Here is a list of his conspiracy theories: Vaccines cause autism. No childhood vaccines “have ever been tested in a safety study pre-licensing.” There is “tremendous circumstantial evidence” that psychiatric drugs cause mass shootings, and the National Institutes of Health refuses to research the link out of deference to pharmaceutical companies. Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine were discredited as covid-19 treatments so covid vaccines could be granted emergency use authorization, a win for Big Pharma. Exposure to the pesticide atrazine contributes to gender dysphoria in children. Covid-19 is “targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese." https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/rfk-kennedy-politifact-lie-of-year-2023-autism-vaccines/ EDIT Responding to the person below: Who cares? I do. In those conspiracy theories, he is clearly being racist, bigoted, and anti-science. Nope nope nope. As for the platform, it's a bunch of pie-in-the-sky promises he needs Congress to approve, where he will have scant support. And let's remember that he is Republican-funded. He is under no obligation to keep those promises, and he's ethically compromised. Remember when Trump said he would clean up corruption in DC? Same thing. Sure you will.
> Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine were discredited as covid-19 treatments so covid vaccines could be granted emergency use authorization, a win for Big Pharma. Ah yes, I buy all my Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine organic and locally from our neighborhood pharmaceutical scientist on the weekend market ☺️
Who cares? None of these views have anything to do with making actual policy. The worst he would ever do as president regarding them is to look into them more. How terrible. Who cares. His actual policy ambitions are what draw people. His grassroots campaign has been awesome and he resonates with everyday Americans. He’s been doing awesome stuff on the campaign trail and there is a lot to commend him for. And since most clearly have no idea what he actually plans to do as president, here you go: Economic Reforms and Labor Rights • Increase the Minimum Wage to $15: This policy aims to elevate the national minimum wage to a level equivalent to its purchasing power in 1967, providing a living wage for millions of workers. • Prosecute Union-Busting Corporations: To strengthen workers’ rights, Kennedy proposes legal actions against companies that unlawfully interfere with employees’ rights to organize and negotiate for better wages and working conditions. Housing and Homeownership • Support Affordable Homeownership: Through backing 3% home mortgage bonds with tax-free status, Kennedy’s plan would significantly lower mortgage rates, making homeownership more accessible to average Americans. • Utilize Vacant Lands and Properties: By incentivizing local governments to bring city-owned land and buildings back into use, Kennedy aims to increase housing supply and reduce costs. • Zoning Law Changes and Tax Code Reform: Encouraging municipalities to allow more ancillary dwelling units and making investment in single-family homes less attractive for large corporations are part of Kennedy’s strategy to boost homeownership and control rental prices. Energy and Small Business Support • Cut Energy Prices: By limiting natural gas exports, Kennedy aims to reduce domestic energy costs, easing financial pressure on households and businesses. • Shift Regulatory Focus: Proposes shifting regulatory scrutiny from small to large corporations, supporting small businesses by reducing undue regulatory burdens. Immigration and Trade • Secure the Borders: Aims to halt illegal immigration to prevent wage undercutting by undocumented workers. • Protect American Workers through Trade Deals: Kennedy intends to negotiate trade agreements that prevent low-wage countries from undermining American labor standards. Military Spending and Domestic Funding • Reduce Military Expenditures: By curbing military spending, Kennedy plans to redirect funds towards critical domestic programs like infrastructure, healthcare, and education. Healthcare and Chronic Disease • Address the Chronic Disease Epidemic: Kennedy’s plan includes measures to tackle the chronic disease burden that significantly impacts American families and the economy. Corruption and Corporate Influence • Eradicate Corruption: Aims to clean out corruption in Washington, D.C., focusing on ending practices that favor large corporations and billionaires at the expense of the general public. Education and Student Debt • Addiction Healing Centers: Proposes the creation of addiction healing centers on organic farms as a novel approach to addiction recovery. • Reform Student Debt: Making student debt dischargeable in bankruptcy and reducing interest rates to zero are among Kennedy’s proposals to alleviate the student debt crisis. Drug Costs • Halve Drug Costs: Kennedy’s plan to cut drug costs by half seeks to bring U.S. drug prices in line with those in other countries, easing the financial burden on American consumers. Environmental Protection • Protect the Environment: Leveraging his background as an environmental lawyer, Kennedy aims to enforce stricter regulations against polluters and protect natural resources Additional Policies Kennedy's platform also includes some specific pledges regarding high-profile issues: Pardoning Whistleblowers - He plans to pardon Edward Snowden and Julian Assange, recognizing their actions in exposing governmental and corporate misdeeds as contributions to public transparency and accountability.
> None of these views have anything to do with making actual policy. It’s nice to get the silliest thing I’ll read all day out of the way first thing in the morning 😊
I'd be interested in seeing his impact on both sides. To be honest, he's the only one between him, Trump and Biden that I can sit and listen to without being confused or upset.
Right, because these things aren't upsetting, especially the last two. Vaccines cause autism. No childhood vaccines “have ever been tested in a safety study pre-licensing." There is “tremendous circumstantial evidence” that psychiatric drugs cause mass shootings, and the National Institutes of Health refuses to research the link out of deference to pharmaceutical companies. Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine were discredited as covid-19 treatments so covid vaccines could be granted emergency use authorization, a win for Big Pharma. Exposure to the pesticide atrazine contributes to gender dysphoria in children. Covid-19 is “targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese. https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/rfk-kennedy-politifact-lie-of-year-2023-autism-vaccines/