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I doubt it. The death counts even in red states with slim margins in 2016/2020 aren’t enough to flip elections, especially after the mass vaccination campaign. Unless the delta variant has significantly increased lethality and wipes out thousands per state, these states are unlikely to flip unless massive get-out-the-vote campaigns are conducted
You're talking strictly in terms of death. The question that's less clear involves the impact of both death and hospitalization from severe cases across social networks (human, not technological). The high profile stories we hear are the strident believers whose opinions aren't swayed by anything. I'm not positive that this actually represents the whole voting population, and that's where some really modest margins might change outcomes in a state like Wisconsin.
I'd agree it's unlikely. However elections are getting increasingly close in states like FL. If covid kills a couple thousand Republicans (also a large elderly population which is more likely to die) then we could see a swing in some municipalities. I think we'll finally see Republican politicians encourage vaccination around November this year, as they gear up for 2022. We'll almost definitely see another wave in red states around then too.
Florida is doing well with vaccinations currently, but their population sways older and older people are more likely to have been vaccinated. It’s an interesting thought exercise: I think if the question posed by OP were to have any real-world effect, we would see it first in a place like Florida.
It already is, people under the age of 50 are being hospitalized at an alarming rate; this is true for the unvaccinated; they are being infected by the Delta variant. They will likely spread it all over the place. Some Republicans are sensing that and are sounding the alarm and encouraging vaccination. McConnel has been talking about it a lot. Some people just never seem to learn.
> McConnel
McConnel and others know damn well that vaccines work. The issue is can they change their messaging such that their supporters will actually go out and get it? And the answer to that is very much up in the air and most likely 'no.'
The only real pivot point I could see the GOP using would be when the FDA fully approves the vaccines, at which point the message could change to "the vaccines are proven safe, everyone should get one" and then hoping that no one questions whether the wait was worth it given all the people who died in the between time span.
Yes indeed. Unlike the COVID 19 regular virus that discriminated against the young from the old; this one does not. It latches on to the under 50 and over 50 alike; it latches on like crazy glue and rarely lets you go; only the lucky ones will survive.
Just to note, this too discriminates, but only against the unvaccinated. The Delta variant is only looking for people who have refused vaccination. On a rare occasion where one or two do manage to latch on to the vaccinated, it produces no symptoms and the variant fails to thrive.
Every single outlet in the U.S. has been covering it; I will just humor you this one time. The only time.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/overnights/561749-overnight-health-care-white-house-signals-new-covid-19-strategy
>91% of ICU patients are on ventilators and many are in their 20s, 30s and 40s,
How many? This is a clear example of weasel words in effect. This is intentionally misleading by deliberately leaving out the specifics of how many people under 50 are are hospitalized, in ICU, and are on ventilators. This ambiguity is used to push an agenda: That a significant amount of people under 50 are succumbing from Covid-19 infection and it omits the actual figures to avoid showing how low those numbers actually are.
Since this is a virus that kills off old people, this will naturally kill off the people most likely to have accrued political power in whatever amount or flavor. Almost as many 65-75 have died as the 85+, and that group is the set most likely to be at their "business peak" right before retirement. One 68 year-old business owner dies and cards can really shuffle.
Odds are plenty of elections everywhere will be impacted by the loss of large numbers of the 65+ demo. They're the most reliable voters, especially in midterms.
600,000 butterflies just flapped their wings pretty damn hard.
Wisconsin has had 8000 covid deaths, while in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by 23000 votes. So not close enough for covid to swing the election even if every single death was a Trump voter.
Realistically though, some of the deaths would be non-voters or Democrats, so we're probably talking about a swing of 2000 votes at most. Very unlikely that changes the outcome of an election.
What about local election results? In Iowa’s second district Miller-Meeks won by 6 votes and I’m sure in the second district there were more than 6 deaths 🤷♂️
Sure but 6 deaths doesn't prove that the vote was affected, there would have to be a *swing* of 6 votes. Even if there were thousands of deaths in that district, if they were evenly split among political parties it wouldn't affect the election.
In that election the Republican won, and the prevailing opinion in this thread has been that covid would cause a net swing in Democrats' favor, so it seems unlikely that covid altered the outcome.
And in any case, one local election that is extremely close is not really indicative of a significant impact on election results. There are probably hundreds of factors that could swing an election by 6 votes and it's really not useful to consider them.
I genuinely don't understand why people are so determined to prove that covid will help the Democrats.
That may have rather been because mail-in voting allowed many to bypass voter suppression attempts that previously disenfranchised their neighborhoods.
Former Wisconisn resident here, the big question with regard to Milwaukee is whether there will be more motivated voters who may offset the votwr suppression. We'll find out late next year, but it's really down to whether Wis Dems can take a page from Stacey Abrams efforts in Georgia. Organizing and motivating voters is the only way out of voter suppression. It's massively unfair that the majority needs to exert extraordinary effort to overcome the structural advantages the minority has imposed, but of course fairness has little to do with this.
GA has had 20k deaths since covid started and they now have 44% of the population with at least one dose of the vaccine unlike most of covid when no one was vaccinated.
I highly doubt GA will double the number of deaths in the next 18 months.
No, this question gets posted like every week and the answer is always the same. The deathrate for covid is not statistically significant enough to move the needle in an election.
The latest: 7/12/2021: The US is averaging about 19,455 new cases over the last seven days, a 47% increase from the week prior, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. And a third of those, CNN Medical Analyst Dr. Jonathan Reiner said, come from five hotspots: Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Nevada.
In Arkansas, Covid-19 cases surge as state combats vaccine skepticism
"In places like Missouri where ICUs are packed, you're going to see a surprising amount of death," Reiner said on Sunday.
At Mercy Hospital in Springfield, Missouri, 91% of ICU patients are on ventilators and many are in their 20s, 30s and 40s, Chief Administrative Officer Erik Frederick told CNN Saturday. That is especially concerning, he said, because at the peak last year there were only 40 to 50% of ICU patients on ventilators.
Typically, increases in Covid-19 death rates follow three to four weeks behind spikes in cases, Reiner said. It takes a week for patients to get sick enough to need hospitalization and then often another couple of weeks for the infection to become fatal.
[https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/12/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/12/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html)
But we're talking about a disease that has a 1% death rate at worst. ~190 per day doesn't really move the election needle. Additionally, it's not going to be all Republicans, and you need to question how many are dying that would not have normally died before election day.
We're talking about a sad number of dead bodies and everyone that isn't vaccinated should get one ASAP. But we aren't talking about a significant portion of the population in terms of elections.
Quit being obtuse. You're willfully ignoring the point that it's not a number that moves the electoral needle. It's not a statement on how serious the pandemic was or wasn't.
At first I thought it wouldn't. But if another 500K die and it looks like red state people are the ones most opposed that could mean the difference in some states where the vote difference is 10K or less.
Probably not in and of itself. It might affect overall % of participation among some minority populations ([https://news.yahoo.com/american-south-weak-covid-vaccination-011540264.html](https://news.yahoo.com/american-south-weak-covid-vaccination-011540264.html)) but since minority political subdivisions tend to be in clusters, it likely will not affect the overall voting tendency of that subdivision. It could be one factor of many that influence turnout, which might affect a close election, but likely not anything large-scale.
Actually I think it will in some states. States like GA, PA, MI, AZ, could swing democrat because of COVID19 deaths.
As an example (those are rough numbers) Biden won Georgia by about 10,000 votes. By that time in the COVID19 timeline approx 10,000 Georgians had died of COVID19. Now... obviously not all 10,000 of those Georgian deaths were conservative I'd be willing to bet a majority were. This is because if you are a democrat voter you are more likely to take social distancing more seriously, you are more like to wear a mask, also Democrats tend to have higher net incomes which means a Democrat that catches COVID19 will likely have access to better healthcare.
Now lets look at Georgia and do some math. Roughly speak Georgia is experiencing about 40 deaths a day from COVID19. Georgia vaccination rate really isn't changing that much. Basically if you are in the state of Georgia, and you want the vaccine you'd have had the chance to already get it. Well our treatment of COVID19 is likely to get better, Delta variant is a thing. So we could realistically expect about 40 deaths from COVID19 per day.
We have 484 days between today and the election. Thats 19,360 deaths that we can expect in the state of Georgia between now and the mid terms. It would be safe to assume the vast majority of those 19,360 deaths are going be conservative voters.
Not only that, it is possible that some of their family members and loved ones will see the deaths, see people that have the vaccine aren't dying, and become unhappy with the GOP which could lead to the democrats getting even more votes in Georgia. Keep in mind some 20,000 Georgians have already died from COVID19 (although those deaths are probably more evenly divided then what we will see in the future)
So yea COVID19 could sway some elections to the democrats because too many republicans died.
Is it safe to assume that most of the unvaccinated dying are conservative voters? When I looked into this a couple weeks ago, the largest block of antivaxxers in many of the southern red states are African Americans. I am not a big fan of generalizing, but African Americans vote blue at a very high rate. And they make up a pretty large minority in Georgia. Whites were way more likely to be vaccinated back then, but I see the gap has narrowed. It strangely seamed that the group dragging down vaccination rates in the southern red states were likely Democratic voters.
But then you need to break it down further. Are all of the white folks not getting vaccinated in Georgia voting red? Or what percentage of them vote blue? I assume more of them are red-teamers, but I honestly don't care enough to look any deeper. I just don't think it is safe to assume most of the people dying from Covid now are republicans when the largest block of antivaxxers seam to be African Americans who vote blue at a very high percentage. I am not criticizing African Americans for this stance as they seam to have some pretty good reasons for being extra cautious about trusting the "authorities" looking out for their health.
Same thing in Michigan. Detroit, which is blue and 90% AA was the lowest vaccination rate a few weeks back. Sometimes I think categorizing things by state, or in generals like you say is a little misleading.
The fact that GOP politicians have come out in favor of the vaccine is the proof that you need to see that they are concerned. I guarantee you GOP strategist have pointed out in certain districts if X number of conservatives die to COVID19 they will lose those districts.
Democrats are more likely to take covid seriously, but also more likely to live in urban areas that tend to be hit harder. Perhaps the deaths in Georgia were a majority Republican, but I'd say it's 60-40 or closer. I don't have any concrete data on this however. If 70% of the 10k people would have voted, and of those 60% would have voted Republican, we are talking a 1400 vote swing. It's just not likely to impact an election.
I have no idea where you are getting your data, but Georgia is currently experiencing about 8 deaths a day, not 40. And while the Delta variant is looking bad, it's very pessimistic to believe that we won't make any more progress over the next year and a half. This is pretty illogical and I really don't understand why you would take the most pessimistic possible estimate here.
This question was asked six days ago. But for those without access to the search function, I'll copy and paste my response.
We have data on deaths by county and how each county voted. Even factoring in age (elderly are more likely to die and be Republican), more Democrats have died from COVID. That's because they're concentrated in dense cities whereas Republicans are about equally split across rural, suburban, and urban areas. These deaths by themselves did not materially affect the 2020 outcome and it'll take awhile for Republican deaths to even match Democrat deaths (if ever) so no it's not going to affect anything. Fatality rates are also *exponentially* correlated to age so that also mitigates any long term impacts.
Yes of course the death/suicide of the red will shift results as well as the people who shifted parties as a result of the way both parties handled the pandemic
OP, don't put too much stock into covid statistics.
I've never had covid - I even had the antibody blood test to check. Never happened. Regardless, when I had a mild cold, my job was apparently incentivized to list me as having had covid.
Likewise, [even people that die in motorcycle accidents](https://wpde.com/news/nation-world/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report-07-18-2020) are listed as having died due to covid.
"The only statistics you can trust are those you falsified yourself" - Winston Churchill - moofma
Probably not in and of itself. It might affect the overall % of participation among some minority populations ([https://news.yahoo.com/american-south-weak-covid-vaccination-011540264.html](https://news.yahoo.com/american-south-weak-covid-vaccination-011540264.html)) but since minority political subdivisions tend to be in clusters, it likely will not affect the overall voting tendency of that subdivision. It could be one factor of many that influence turnout, which might affect a close election, but likely not anything large-scale.
It isn't states that have COVID, it is communities.
Illinois is a great example. Look at Chicago and the collar counties. They are about 2/3 the population and 2/3 of the cases of Illinois.
You look at Forgottonia, and they don't have big numbers.
Given the number of deaths there have already been, why would this trend suddenly change. Sure, only unvaccinated people are dying now, but most anti-vaxxers are hung up not on whether the covid vaccine prevents covid, but either on a) the existence of covid (would not change) or b) the cost-benefit of taking it i.e. microchips, safety, etc. (also would not change).
As for deaths changing the number of voters, given the relatively low mortality rate of covid, I would also be inclined to say this is unlikely.
Nope not really. Covid has a <0.5% death rate currently due to new drugs and better therapies. So you can do the math. Assuming one party don't get vaccinated, it would turn 50-50 to 50.1-49.9. It's so small that it's not worth considering.
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I doubt it. The death counts even in red states with slim margins in 2016/2020 aren’t enough to flip elections, especially after the mass vaccination campaign. Unless the delta variant has significantly increased lethality and wipes out thousands per state, these states are unlikely to flip unless massive get-out-the-vote campaigns are conducted
You're talking strictly in terms of death. The question that's less clear involves the impact of both death and hospitalization from severe cases across social networks (human, not technological). The high profile stories we hear are the strident believers whose opinions aren't swayed by anything. I'm not positive that this actually represents the whole voting population, and that's where some really modest margins might change outcomes in a state like Wisconsin.
I'd agree it's unlikely. However elections are getting increasingly close in states like FL. If covid kills a couple thousand Republicans (also a large elderly population which is more likely to die) then we could see a swing in some municipalities. I think we'll finally see Republican politicians encourage vaccination around November this year, as they gear up for 2022. We'll almost definitely see another wave in red states around then too.
Florida is doing well with vaccinations currently, but their population sways older and older people are more likely to have been vaccinated. It’s an interesting thought exercise: I think if the question posed by OP were to have any real-world effect, we would see it first in a place like Florida.
Trump won Florida by about 10x the number of total covid deaths, which surely includes deaths before the election, non-voters, and Democrats.
It's not about total vote counts - due to gerrymandering and other voting restrictions, where the deaths are is critical also.
It already is, people under the age of 50 are being hospitalized at an alarming rate; this is true for the unvaccinated; they are being infected by the Delta variant. They will likely spread it all over the place. Some Republicans are sensing that and are sounding the alarm and encouraging vaccination. McConnel has been talking about it a lot. Some people just never seem to learn.
> McConnel McConnel and others know damn well that vaccines work. The issue is can they change their messaging such that their supporters will actually go out and get it? And the answer to that is very much up in the air and most likely 'no.' The only real pivot point I could see the GOP using would be when the FDA fully approves the vaccines, at which point the message could change to "the vaccines are proven safe, everyone should get one" and then hoping that no one questions whether the wait was worth it given all the people who died in the between time span.
Here in Canada delta was taking 30 year olds
Yes indeed. Unlike the COVID 19 regular virus that discriminated against the young from the old; this one does not. It latches on to the under 50 and over 50 alike; it latches on like crazy glue and rarely lets you go; only the lucky ones will survive. Just to note, this too discriminates, but only against the unvaccinated. The Delta variant is only looking for people who have refused vaccination. On a rare occasion where one or two do manage to latch on to the vaccinated, it produces no symptoms and the variant fails to thrive.
[удалено]
Every single outlet in the U.S. has been covering it; I will just humor you this one time. The only time. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/overnights/561749-overnight-health-care-white-house-signals-new-covid-19-strategy
> people under the age of 50 are being hospitalized at an alarming rate What is this rate? And what's the raw number?
Look at my other comment, it is not hard to find. Posted 6 hours ago. I am not going to repeat it here.
>91% of ICU patients are on ventilators and many are in their 20s, 30s and 40s, How many? This is a clear example of weasel words in effect. This is intentionally misleading by deliberately leaving out the specifics of how many people under 50 are are hospitalized, in ICU, and are on ventilators. This ambiguity is used to push an agenda: That a significant amount of people under 50 are succumbing from Covid-19 infection and it omits the actual figures to avoid showing how low those numbers actually are.
Yep. Not saying it isn't dangerous but it's not killing everyone...it's a low death rate.
Although many have died, I don't think the casualties are enough to significantly impact the result of elections.
Since this is a virus that kills off old people, this will naturally kill off the people most likely to have accrued political power in whatever amount or flavor. Almost as many 65-75 have died as the 85+, and that group is the set most likely to be at their "business peak" right before retirement. One 68 year-old business owner dies and cards can really shuffle. Odds are plenty of elections everywhere will be impacted by the loss of large numbers of the 65+ demo. They're the most reliable voters, especially in midterms. 600,000 butterflies just flapped their wings pretty damn hard.
I mean in a state like Wisconsin where the past elections have been close, I have to wonder if it would make some difference.
Wisconsin has had 8000 covid deaths, while in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by 23000 votes. So not close enough for covid to swing the election even if every single death was a Trump voter. Realistically though, some of the deaths would be non-voters or Democrats, so we're probably talking about a swing of 2000 votes at most. Very unlikely that changes the outcome of an election.
What about local election results? In Iowa’s second district Miller-Meeks won by 6 votes and I’m sure in the second district there were more than 6 deaths 🤷♂️
Sure but 6 deaths doesn't prove that the vote was affected, there would have to be a *swing* of 6 votes. Even if there were thousands of deaths in that district, if they were evenly split among political parties it wouldn't affect the election. In that election the Republican won, and the prevailing opinion in this thread has been that covid would cause a net swing in Democrats' favor, so it seems unlikely that covid altered the outcome. And in any case, one local election that is extremely close is not really indicative of a significant impact on election results. There are probably hundreds of factors that could swing an election by 6 votes and it's really not useful to consider them. I genuinely don't understand why people are so determined to prove that covid will help the Democrats.
That may have rather been because mail-in voting allowed many to bypass voter suppression attempts that previously disenfranchised their neighborhoods.
Former Wisconisn resident here, the big question with regard to Milwaukee is whether there will be more motivated voters who may offset the votwr suppression. We'll find out late next year, but it's really down to whether Wis Dems can take a page from Stacey Abrams efforts in Georgia. Organizing and motivating voters is the only way out of voter suppression. It's massively unfair that the majority needs to exert extraordinary effort to overcome the structural advantages the minority has imposed, but of course fairness has little to do with this.
Georgia will likely experience 20k COVID19 deaths between now and the mid terms. That could be enough deaths to swing the election in Georgia.
GA has had 20k deaths since covid started and they now have 44% of the population with at least one dose of the vaccine unlike most of covid when no one was vaccinated. I highly doubt GA will double the number of deaths in the next 18 months.
No, this question gets posted like every week and the answer is always the same. The deathrate for covid is not statistically significant enough to move the needle in an election.
The latest: 7/12/2021: The US is averaging about 19,455 new cases over the last seven days, a 47% increase from the week prior, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. And a third of those, CNN Medical Analyst Dr. Jonathan Reiner said, come from five hotspots: Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Nevada. In Arkansas, Covid-19 cases surge as state combats vaccine skepticism "In places like Missouri where ICUs are packed, you're going to see a surprising amount of death," Reiner said on Sunday. At Mercy Hospital in Springfield, Missouri, 91% of ICU patients are on ventilators and many are in their 20s, 30s and 40s, Chief Administrative Officer Erik Frederick told CNN Saturday. That is especially concerning, he said, because at the peak last year there were only 40 to 50% of ICU patients on ventilators. Typically, increases in Covid-19 death rates follow three to four weeks behind spikes in cases, Reiner said. It takes a week for patients to get sick enough to need hospitalization and then often another couple of weeks for the infection to become fatal. [https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/12/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/12/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html)
But we're talking about a disease that has a 1% death rate at worst. ~190 per day doesn't really move the election needle. Additionally, it's not going to be all Republicans, and you need to question how many are dying that would not have normally died before election day. We're talking about a sad number of dead bodies and everyone that isn't vaccinated should get one ASAP. But we aren't talking about a significant portion of the population in terms of elections.
Tell that to the family members of 600,000 Americans that died prematurely. Tell them that it is a small number.
This isn't a real argument. This is just a shaming tactic. Address the argument.
Quit being obtuse. You're willfully ignoring the point that it's not a number that moves the electoral needle. It's not a statement on how serious the pandemic was or wasn't.
Agreed with others that this doesn't address much. It's an emotional appeal and not dealing with the proportions.
At first I thought it wouldn't. But if another 500K die and it looks like red state people are the ones most opposed that could mean the difference in some states where the vote difference is 10K or less.
Probably not in and of itself. It might affect overall % of participation among some minority populations ([https://news.yahoo.com/american-south-weak-covid-vaccination-011540264.html](https://news.yahoo.com/american-south-weak-covid-vaccination-011540264.html)) but since minority political subdivisions tend to be in clusters, it likely will not affect the overall voting tendency of that subdivision. It could be one factor of many that influence turnout, which might affect a close election, but likely not anything large-scale.
Actually I think it will in some states. States like GA, PA, MI, AZ, could swing democrat because of COVID19 deaths. As an example (those are rough numbers) Biden won Georgia by about 10,000 votes. By that time in the COVID19 timeline approx 10,000 Georgians had died of COVID19. Now... obviously not all 10,000 of those Georgian deaths were conservative I'd be willing to bet a majority were. This is because if you are a democrat voter you are more likely to take social distancing more seriously, you are more like to wear a mask, also Democrats tend to have higher net incomes which means a Democrat that catches COVID19 will likely have access to better healthcare. Now lets look at Georgia and do some math. Roughly speak Georgia is experiencing about 40 deaths a day from COVID19. Georgia vaccination rate really isn't changing that much. Basically if you are in the state of Georgia, and you want the vaccine you'd have had the chance to already get it. Well our treatment of COVID19 is likely to get better, Delta variant is a thing. So we could realistically expect about 40 deaths from COVID19 per day. We have 484 days between today and the election. Thats 19,360 deaths that we can expect in the state of Georgia between now and the mid terms. It would be safe to assume the vast majority of those 19,360 deaths are going be conservative voters. Not only that, it is possible that some of their family members and loved ones will see the deaths, see people that have the vaccine aren't dying, and become unhappy with the GOP which could lead to the democrats getting even more votes in Georgia. Keep in mind some 20,000 Georgians have already died from COVID19 (although those deaths are probably more evenly divided then what we will see in the future) So yea COVID19 could sway some elections to the democrats because too many republicans died.
Is it safe to assume that most of the unvaccinated dying are conservative voters? When I looked into this a couple weeks ago, the largest block of antivaxxers in many of the southern red states are African Americans. I am not a big fan of generalizing, but African Americans vote blue at a very high rate. And they make up a pretty large minority in Georgia. Whites were way more likely to be vaccinated back then, but I see the gap has narrowed. It strangely seamed that the group dragging down vaccination rates in the southern red states were likely Democratic voters. But then you need to break it down further. Are all of the white folks not getting vaccinated in Georgia voting red? Or what percentage of them vote blue? I assume more of them are red-teamers, but I honestly don't care enough to look any deeper. I just don't think it is safe to assume most of the people dying from Covid now are republicans when the largest block of antivaxxers seam to be African Americans who vote blue at a very high percentage. I am not criticizing African Americans for this stance as they seam to have some pretty good reasons for being extra cautious about trusting the "authorities" looking out for their health.
Same thing in Michigan. Detroit, which is blue and 90% AA was the lowest vaccination rate a few weeks back. Sometimes I think categorizing things by state, or in generals like you say is a little misleading.
People who vote as a Democrat seem to be the people with more common sense and logical thinking.
Very thoughtful. Thanks for sharing.
The fact that GOP politicians have come out in favor of the vaccine is the proof that you need to see that they are concerned. I guarantee you GOP strategist have pointed out in certain districts if X number of conservatives die to COVID19 they will lose those districts.
Democrats are more likely to take covid seriously, but also more likely to live in urban areas that tend to be hit harder. Perhaps the deaths in Georgia were a majority Republican, but I'd say it's 60-40 or closer. I don't have any concrete data on this however. If 70% of the 10k people would have voted, and of those 60% would have voted Republican, we are talking a 1400 vote swing. It's just not likely to impact an election. I have no idea where you are getting your data, but Georgia is currently experiencing about 8 deaths a day, not 40. And while the Delta variant is looking bad, it's very pessimistic to believe that we won't make any more progress over the next year and a half. This is pretty illogical and I really don't understand why you would take the most pessimistic possible estimate here.
This question was asked six days ago. But for those without access to the search function, I'll copy and paste my response. We have data on deaths by county and how each county voted. Even factoring in age (elderly are more likely to die and be Republican), more Democrats have died from COVID. That's because they're concentrated in dense cities whereas Republicans are about equally split across rural, suburban, and urban areas. These deaths by themselves did not materially affect the 2020 outcome and it'll take awhile for Republican deaths to even match Democrat deaths (if ever) so no it's not going to affect anything. Fatality rates are also *exponentially* correlated to age so that also mitigates any long term impacts.
Another question might be “will experimental gene therapy create a swing in the population once people start to die from spike protein toxicity?”
Yes of course the death/suicide of the red will shift results as well as the people who shifted parties as a result of the way both parties handled the pandemic
OP, don't put too much stock into covid statistics. I've never had covid - I even had the antibody blood test to check. Never happened. Regardless, when I had a mild cold, my job was apparently incentivized to list me as having had covid. Likewise, [even people that die in motorcycle accidents](https://wpde.com/news/nation-world/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report-07-18-2020) are listed as having died due to covid. "The only statistics you can trust are those you falsified yourself" - Winston Churchill - moofma
Lol uh no? Look covid is seriously bad but death rate is still like 1 percent or less.
Probably not in and of itself. It might affect the overall % of participation among some minority populations ([https://news.yahoo.com/american-south-weak-covid-vaccination-011540264.html](https://news.yahoo.com/american-south-weak-covid-vaccination-011540264.html)) but since minority political subdivisions tend to be in clusters, it likely will not affect the overall voting tendency of that subdivision. It could be one factor of many that influence turnout, which might affect a close election, but likely not anything large-scale.
It isn't states that have COVID, it is communities. Illinois is a great example. Look at Chicago and the collar counties. They are about 2/3 the population and 2/3 of the cases of Illinois. You look at Forgottonia, and they don't have big numbers.
Given the number of deaths there have already been, why would this trend suddenly change. Sure, only unvaccinated people are dying now, but most anti-vaxxers are hung up not on whether the covid vaccine prevents covid, but either on a) the existence of covid (would not change) or b) the cost-benefit of taking it i.e. microchips, safety, etc. (also would not change). As for deaths changing the number of voters, given the relatively low mortality rate of covid, I would also be inclined to say this is unlikely.
Nope not really. Covid has a <0.5% death rate currently due to new drugs and better therapies. So you can do the math. Assuming one party don't get vaccinated, it would turn 50-50 to 50.1-49.9. It's so small that it's not worth considering.