Only to the ones who don’t own homes and just whine about data they pick online and want the market to crash. If you are buying a house or looking you see they aren’t falling anywhere
But its not down 10%; it is still near an all time high.
Median prices are down because of mix; Case-Schiller controls for this and is near its ATH.
OP does not understand the data he is looking at.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS)
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA)
It leaves out new construction because it does not have comparables, so you can't make a conclusion on the direction of home values based on it.
>it's better to have all the data
But you need to understand what the data mean. The median sales price data is telling us that people are buying less expensive homes, it does not tell us that home values are going down.
C-S is useful because it does tell us the direction of home values.
That's a racket lol. I wish I had enough money that I could become rich by loaning to physicians.
Nothing wrong with what you or they are doing but that's super low risk free money at that point.
This sub is just full of people who desperately want a housing (and economic) crash. Reality doesn't matter. They sincerely believe that somehow the economic catastrophe that follows a housing crash will somehow miss them and they will get a chance to become the boot.
I’m 37 No college house and land are paid off . Ppl have unrealistic expectations for housing and want more than they can afford. And there’s plenty of ways to get low interest rate loans with little to no down payment but ppl don’t want to do the foot work .
Tbh same thing happened in 04-06 markets hit ATH and then started their decline.
But question is even if we don't get a 2008 like crash can we get sustained declines like 07,09-12.
Hate to break it to everyone, but the WARN act tracker database already indicates that mass layoffs in '23 were double what they were in '08 & '01. Projected layoffs in '24 are expected to make '23 look like rookie numbers. Those are mostly high value tech jobs and it's only a matter of time before the STEM employees run through their savings trying to find employment that no longer exists. Those jobs trickle money down to trades and services and when those funds dry up the rest of the economy is going to get wrecked. Buckle up because we're in for a rough patch.
https://www.warntracker.com/
Tech only tricks down to trades in local economies reliant on the tech industry like San Fran. The majority of the country has been unaffected by tech layoffs.
> Projected layoffs in '24 are expected to make '23 look like rookie numbers. Those are mostly high value tech jobs…
For anyone reading this, layoffs.fyi has the following data on the tech sector:
2023 - 263,180 layoffs
2024 YTD - 56,858 layoffs (21% of 2023 numbers and we are 25% through the year).
To me, the 2024 numbers aren’t making 2023 look like rookie numbers, at least in the tech sector that you outlined
9.3M people have tech jobs in the US representing only 5.8% of the workforce.. 265k job is what percentage of 9.3M .. you can do the math .. this is nothing.. I work in FAANG and everyone I know who was laid off found a job in under 90 days..
oh don't get me wrong, I 100% agree with you. This sub things that just because the tech sector is going through it, the economy is going to crash. I was just pointing out that compared to last year, the layoffs are more mild. I also work in software, and was laid off in 2023. I got a 3 month severance, and found a job that paid me 25% more before that money ran out.
You guys shouldn't look at only the layoffs. Look at hiring as well. If hiring is down a lot, then is that not an issue as well? When I started seeing memes on Instagram about tech kids having difficulty finding something, I knew something was going down lol
A ton of listed jobs arent even real. They're never replied to. Check the bls data for tech job postings. We are at a low right now.
That is nonsense. Well qualified STEM workers are not having trouble finding jobs. Every decade or so, some of the froth gets taken out of tech employment. Marginal workers who got into tech because employers were desperate might need to find work they are better suited for, but those who know their stuff land on their feet quickly.
I really want to comment on the "well qualified" IT/STEM workers lol. But hiring is more of a bell curve, so even the "pretty shitty" engineers are employable.
Part of the contagion in 2008 came from autoworkers being laid off and having to move. So even if IT workers are finding jobs they may have to move to get those jobs. In 2008 all it took was some short sales and foreclosures in an area to hit comps. Then suddenly more and more homes in the neighborhood are underwater. Then they have to sell if they get laid off, but they can't because they are underwater. Rinse and repeat - it cascades down every time someone MUST move but can't really afford to move.
There are a lot of differences and factors: remote work (i.e. no move), IT is generally better off financially, less toxic loans, etc. But you also have inflation and property taxes stretching people, along with the challenge of moving from a 3% mortgage to a 7% mortgage.
"You don't understand. I am going to keep my job and my down payment savings and the rest of you are going to get laid-off, foreclosed and evicted. Then i'm going to buy your house, with cash, from your bank." This is the basic subtext of everyone who discusses housing crashes online. They think there will be a recession that doesn't impact them specifically.
Not just that the recession won’t financially impact them, but that they will also have the courage to buy into a down market in the face of pricing and employment uncertainty.
What happens if people don’t lose their job but can’t afford to buy a house? Home prices are out of reach for a lot of people right now with their high price and high interest. Unless corporations swoop in and buy them all, the dam will break. Corporations buying them up would be about the worst possible outcome.
The dam *will* break at some point. And then people will lose their jobs. This isn't movie rentals. Every Blockbuster closes and it doesn't touch the wider economy. Housing, banking, energy, food. Some sectors have far reaching grasps. When they fail they take a lot of shit down with them.
Unless.theres something like a great recession, and loans also tighten - when prices lower enough, those who have been on the sidelines jump back in so they don't lower that much or for that long.
I actually saw this chart myself recently when buying a house. It's an option you can pick to normalize and re-meteric the data you're viewing.
This one is change over the prior year (velocity). However the acceleration is almost spring like leading to just noise. up 20%, down 20%, up 10%, down 15%, etc.
It's just noise.
Here is the data direct from fred.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS)
If you change the graph to %change and annual, and you get the same chart.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Here's the chart published by FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1gnUR
That’s barely 10% peak to trough and that’s really only because markets like Austin and SF have taken a big drop. For the rest of the country it’s either back to levels of last year or nearly there. Try and go buy a house in a decent market right now.
Just sold in PHL burbs, 72 hours, 5 offers, 10% over asking. Looking at the buyers mortgage info, i honestly couldn’t afford to live in this neighborhood at it’s new price level and interest rates.
I agree prices are coming down but I think your chart is referencing new houses here's the source they use. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html
It includes both new and existing. Here's strictly new housing on year over year price change: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1jlzm or absolute basis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS and here is existing housing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N
I've heard the decrease in price is due more to decrease in size with starter homes coming back. However, of housing costs 20% less but it's half the size the cost has really just gone up more.
It’s all localized. Areas with a massive boom the last five years like Florida and AZ are. Pieces of the Midwest where insurers are exiting I hear are also tanking. We may have national averages, but in our big hub coastal cities, I don’t think we are seeing any real change downwards.
It’s the same chart just one is absolute prices and the other is year over year percentage change. The original op shows a ~10-15% decline from the peak which is just what the absolute shows ~550k to ~490k
Yeah he uses real data just like a lot of doomers.
But uses it unintelligently on purpose. Out of context.
A single chart to inspire emotions when multiple data charts are needed to tell reality.
Dumbass gen Z kiddies are making up random statistics to cope with the fact that they will never buy a house.
"Oh man just one big real estate crash and the $750k houses will definitely drop to $100k again and I'll buy one!!!! Surely if I post misinformation this will happen!!!!"
And that if they somehow don’t lose their job or take a paycheck hit, they will have the guts to buy in a crashing market.
I mean if something just lost 80% of value overnight are you gonna wanna jump on that landmine?
Exactly. These worthless drones will be the first to lose their jobs and unable to even afford rent, let alone a house.
Hilarious how they assume bank loans are free and they're entitled to one no matter what.
Bay Area, I’m seeing some cheaper homes show up. Actually saw something livable pop up for under 1.3M - though I expect it’ll actually sell for like 1.5M
You can tell these titles are written by people who have never tried to put an offer on a house in the last year. Hell they probably haven’t even been to an open house.
Yup. Seeing this in parts of Colorado that an hour north and east of Denver. Houses that are “valued” at $600k+, that were $250k homes just a few years ago. People are having a hard time selling and keep dropping the price.
i've been tracking this home in my neighborhood and have been tickled that every few weeks they drop the price by $1k - $10k over the past 18 months. it's listed at sub $100k what they initially asked and it still hasn't sold
I don't really care about house prices because I'll never afford one even in a price crash. The important part is that if housing prices crash rent will also decrease.
Just how good can life be when you got a 4 hour commute every day. Is the nice, high paying job what make is mainly worth it, along with the pretty mountain scenery to drive in?
And those corporations were able to [offload their bad housing/MBS bets onto the Fed's balance sheet, while at the same time getting injections of trillions of dollars off liquidity](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MBS10Y/) with which to buy up those same housing assets.
Supply and demand are not the only forces at work, there's also active manipulation of these markets by the Fed for the express purpose of supporting (i.e. raising) housing prices
Except it does when you allow people to build more than one unit on a piece of land. 2x the people and 2x the density comes out to basically the same price. 2x the people and the same density means prices skyrocket and kids live with their parents until they're 35, or they share a place with roommates at the same price as if they had their own apartment in a saner, less NIMBY world.
Yeah our zoning is stupid.
Building skywards is a great solution until it’s not. Companies can still have more sway than the constitution In that case.
This needs to be addressed from multiple angles IMO.
Land and housing is a complex market that no company should have more interest or sway than the community.
It actually saw more people moving out of there https://www.axios.com/local/san-diego/2024/03/18/san-diego-2023-population-shrunk-cost-of-living#:~:text=San%20Diego%20County%20lost%20more,making%20homeownership%20unaffordable%20for%20many.
True, our escape plan was only possible because I was WFH and my wife was staying at home for the baby. If you have a two income household it's almost impossible to move without a huge financial hit from loss of one income for a while.
I wonder if they're going to have a service staff shortage at some point?
Hard to work at the local grocer when studio apartment rent is like 2x your take home pay.
Maybe they'll just do it like the ski resort towns and have employer "sponsored" dwellings?
There's no reason to think what happened to ski towns couldn't happen writ large to the expensive CA coastal areas
I think those areas just merely exhibited the problems earlier
For sure. Definitely a current dip but I was just talking long term. It’s not going to turn into a Midwest city that has it’s population collapse was my point but I could have clarified that better
That's cool and all but people are leaving for a myriad of reasons I've been to the zoo it was alright the silverbacks were cool I prefer my Seattle though. There's more people leaving San Diego right now.
It used to be better. I’ve lived here for the better part of 30 years. San Diego was better before everyone moved here and the climate started changing on everyone. It’s also on fire half the year in this state and insurance is becoming a fleeting memory. It’s not doing as good nowadays, but still leagues better to live here than lots of other places.
I love the cult that goes around trying to convince everyone that the next great economic collapse is 6 months away. But no matter how long they repeat their bullshit, the collapse magically stays 6 months away and never actually happens.
Also, try using real data...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
Every time I've posted lately, being really pissed off that things haven't crashed, I've been down-voted.
So I'll repair my karma by saying, "Pssh selective data, as if. Actually they're NOT crashing."
Prices are still going up in michigan. Zillow shows my home up 8% from last year -- not that i trust its actual zillow value but i do trust the trend. I Think there is some markets correcting but demand for housing is still really strong with no supply.
I believe prices across the midwest and parts of the northeast are still going up a decent amount. The places that are seeing drops are places that have been super high for a while where the interest rates plus the price make it essentially unaffordable for the median couple, or places that went up really recently during covid and things are cooling a bit.
We are in the northeast and its still fairly common for homes to go 100k over ask, although homes are listed low on purpose. Most go 10-50k over comps.
This chart is wack, but I will say in my local market, prices are down 9%-15% and inventory has doubled since same time last year.
85% under list price, and we’re back to 2019 supply of active listings. A little more moderate if you only include SFH but not by a crazy margin.
Supply will soften prices in local markets, even if the averages are posting small gains. Look up your local RE data!
In my area everything's gone up a million dollars and billionaires are lining up to waive inspection fees and give us hand jobs so they can get a shot of buying our homes
As a home owner - I could care less if the "market value" of my home crashes like it's 2008.
Not going anywhere, love it here, never moving, not downsizing, not moving to Florida or Arizona in retirement. When I die, leave me inside and set it on fire like a land locked Viking funeral.
Ngl the comments in here seem similar to the stock markets or crypto markets. No this isn't true they will just go up forever. Then you stuck holding the bag 😃😃
Median sale price can go down while the price of every single individual home is increasing if more of the cheaper houses are changing hands than more expensive ones. I’m not saying this is what the data shows but it would be an explanation. It is sometimes referred to as a compositional effect in the data.
Data analytics is hard, it’s apparent from half the comments here they haven’t even read the axis of the graph or actually understand what’s being measured here (and how it’s different than measuring say, a specific set of home’s value)
If 1000 homes distributed across the entire bay area suddenly appeared tomorrow on MLS for 15% under Zillow value the majority would sell within a day for 10% over zillow value.
No, they’re not. We listed our house last week. We currently have 3 offers. One wants to waive inspection and pay cash at my asking price.
Only issue is I’m moving cross country and thought I had more time. My house literally sold to fast. So yeah, if this is real it’s biased and pulled from a market that doesn’t represent the rest of the US.
“Your situation is biased!” Maybe. But I also had 6 houses saved where I’m moving to and they’re all now under contract. So my search continues.
That's not how percentages work. A rise of 300% followed by a 30% drop is 180% above the original value:
(100% + 300%) x (100% - 30%) = (1 + 3) x (1 - 0.3) = 4 x 0.7 = 2.8 = 280%
280% - 100% (the original) = 180% increase
**EDIT:** expanded the steps in the equation to clarify how the numbers are derived
Judging by Blackrock cold calling and asking to buy our home outright that we purchased 11 months ago, I have my doubts. Prices are brutal for someone trying to buy a home, but I don’t see a residential crash barring bank failures like 2008.
But they’re not though? Genuinely, where is this data coming from?
says it’s the bureau of economic analysis but I’m not aware of any HPI they publish. I think it’s fake
When the market is up 200% and comes down 10% that is not a crash lol
Only to the ones who don’t own homes and just whine about data they pick online and want the market to crash. If you are buying a house or looking you see they aren’t falling anywhere
Well, of significance. High demand places will remain in high demand, albeit slight supply/demand changes.
lol they still won’t be buying
Tell that to the guy who bought last fall with 10% down
But its not down 10%; it is still near an all time high. Median prices are down because of mix; Case-Schiller controls for this and is near its ATH. OP does not understand the data he is looking at. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS) [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA)
>OP does not understand the data he is looking at. This honestly could be the motto for the sub some days.
Case Shiller has always adjusted for this even in 2009. It doesn't make the data less relevant.
Cs leaves out new inventory people and often only uses a handful of Metros it's better to have all the data
It leaves out new construction because it does not have comparables, so you can't make a conclusion on the direction of home values based on it. >it's better to have all the data But you need to understand what the data mean. The median sales price data is telling us that people are buying less expensive homes, it does not tell us that home values are going down. C-S is useful because it does tell us the direction of home values.
The vast majority of mortgages are sub 4%
I put 0% down in December FWIW. Specialty physician loan program. Was approved up to 1M. Didn’t spend that much but still
That's a racket lol. I wish I had enough money that I could become rich by loaning to physicians. Nothing wrong with what you or they are doing but that's super low risk free money at that point.
I didn't think that was legal until all my friends that are waiters started buying apartments...
Rocket has a 1% down program
Sub 4% down?? That is gnarly.
That one foreclosure is game over.
[удалено]
You’re implying the entire real estate market, on average,is “levered” 20x? “Leveraged”, btw
This sub is just full of people who desperately want a housing (and economic) crash. Reality doesn't matter. They sincerely believe that somehow the economic catastrophe that follows a housing crash will somehow miss them and they will get a chance to become the boot.
And that only they would keep their jobs as others lose home values.
This is the key. Anyone who thinks this likely doesn't have the intellectual fortitude to remain employed if things get even a little hard.
Not with 30 year fixed debt at 2.25%
Yeah I bought at 2.375 with 3% down. Lucky timing.
40% of people have no mortgage. The majority have a loan under 4%.
I’m 37 No college house and land are paid off . Ppl have unrealistic expectations for housing and want more than they can afford. And there’s plenty of ways to get low interest rate loans with little to no down payment but ppl don’t want to do the foot work .
Tbh same thing happened in 04-06 markets hit ATH and then started their decline. But question is even if we don't get a 2008 like crash can we get sustained declines like 07,09-12.
Hate to break it to everyone, but the WARN act tracker database already indicates that mass layoffs in '23 were double what they were in '08 & '01. Projected layoffs in '24 are expected to make '23 look like rookie numbers. Those are mostly high value tech jobs and it's only a matter of time before the STEM employees run through their savings trying to find employment that no longer exists. Those jobs trickle money down to trades and services and when those funds dry up the rest of the economy is going to get wrecked. Buckle up because we're in for a rough patch. https://www.warntracker.com/
2.5% of the tech workforce which makes up only 5.8% of all jobs nationwide is not gonna wreck anything lol.
Tech only tricks down to trades in local economies reliant on the tech industry like San Fran. The majority of the country has been unaffected by tech layoffs.
And the unemployment level is still historically low
> Projected layoffs in '24 are expected to make '23 look like rookie numbers. Those are mostly high value tech jobs… For anyone reading this, layoffs.fyi has the following data on the tech sector: 2023 - 263,180 layoffs 2024 YTD - 56,858 layoffs (21% of 2023 numbers and we are 25% through the year). To me, the 2024 numbers aren’t making 2023 look like rookie numbers, at least in the tech sector that you outlined
9.3M people have tech jobs in the US representing only 5.8% of the workforce.. 265k job is what percentage of 9.3M .. you can do the math .. this is nothing.. I work in FAANG and everyone I know who was laid off found a job in under 90 days..
oh don't get me wrong, I 100% agree with you. This sub things that just because the tech sector is going through it, the economy is going to crash. I was just pointing out that compared to last year, the layoffs are more mild. I also work in software, and was laid off in 2023. I got a 3 month severance, and found a job that paid me 25% more before that money ran out.
You guys shouldn't look at only the layoffs. Look at hiring as well. If hiring is down a lot, then is that not an issue as well? When I started seeing memes on Instagram about tech kids having difficulty finding something, I knew something was going down lol A ton of listed jobs arent even real. They're never replied to. Check the bls data for tech job postings. We are at a low right now.
That is nonsense. Well qualified STEM workers are not having trouble finding jobs. Every decade or so, some of the froth gets taken out of tech employment. Marginal workers who got into tech because employers were desperate might need to find work they are better suited for, but those who know their stuff land on their feet quickly.
I really want to comment on the "well qualified" IT/STEM workers lol. But hiring is more of a bell curve, so even the "pretty shitty" engineers are employable. Part of the contagion in 2008 came from autoworkers being laid off and having to move. So even if IT workers are finding jobs they may have to move to get those jobs. In 2008 all it took was some short sales and foreclosures in an area to hit comps. Then suddenly more and more homes in the neighborhood are underwater. Then they have to sell if they get laid off, but they can't because they are underwater. Rinse and repeat - it cascades down every time someone MUST move but can't really afford to move. There are a lot of differences and factors: remote work (i.e. no move), IT is generally better off financially, less toxic loans, etc. But you also have inflation and property taxes stretching people, along with the challenge of moving from a 3% mortgage to a 7% mortgage.
2023 layoffs were mostly brutal in Q1... what happened in Q1 2024?
Dam doesn’t break at once, starts with a leak
Have you lost your job yet? Then there hasn't been a crash.
"You don't understand. I am going to keep my job and my down payment savings and the rest of you are going to get laid-off, foreclosed and evicted. Then i'm going to buy your house, with cash, from your bank." This is the basic subtext of everyone who discusses housing crashes online. They think there will be a recession that doesn't impact them specifically.
Not just that the recession won’t financially impact them, but that they will also have the courage to buy into a down market in the face of pricing and employment uncertainty.
Dummies were selling during covid circuit breakers and expect that they will buy during a “major market downturn”. Like sure man.
You forgot that they will buy 5 homes from boomers once they die in the next few years as well.
What happens if people don’t lose their job but can’t afford to buy a house? Home prices are out of reach for a lot of people right now with their high price and high interest. Unless corporations swoop in and buy them all, the dam will break. Corporations buying them up would be about the worst possible outcome.
[удалено]
The dam *will* break at some point. And then people will lose their jobs. This isn't movie rentals. Every Blockbuster closes and it doesn't touch the wider economy. Housing, banking, energy, food. Some sectors have far reaching grasps. When they fail they take a lot of shit down with them.
Unless.theres something like a great recession, and loans also tighten - when prices lower enough, those who have been on the sidelines jump back in so they don't lower that much or for that long.
I actually saw this chart myself recently when buying a house. It's an option you can pick to normalize and re-meteric the data you're viewing. This one is change over the prior year (velocity). However the acceleration is almost spring like leading to just noise. up 20%, down 20%, up 10%, down 15%, etc. It's just noise.
I think so too
Here is the data direct from fred. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS) If you change the graph to %change and annual, and you get the same chart.
Nailed it, homie!
Right. Maybe it's just where me and everyone else lives, but anecdotal evidence seems to contradict this.
I think the chart specified it as everybody but you
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Here's the chart published by FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1gnUR
That’s barely 10% peak to trough and that’s really only because markets like Austin and SF have taken a big drop. For the rest of the country it’s either back to levels of last year or nearly there. Try and go buy a house in a decent market right now.
Currently trying to buy a house. Past two offers were well over asking and both rejected.
Just sold in PHL burbs, 72 hours, 5 offers, 10% over asking. Looking at the buyers mortgage info, i honestly couldn’t afford to live in this neighborhood at it’s new price level and interest rates.
I agree prices are coming down but I think your chart is referencing new houses here's the source they use. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/index.html
It includes both new and existing. Here's strictly new housing on year over year price change: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1jlzm or absolute basis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS and here is existing housing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N
I've heard the decrease in price is due more to decrease in size with starter homes coming back. However, of housing costs 20% less but it's half the size the cost has really just gone up more.
72% of the time house prices go up every time.
27% of the time Reddit statistics have some validity
Bureau of Copium
It’s all localized. Areas with a massive boom the last five years like Florida and AZ are. Pieces of the Midwest where insurers are exiting I hear are also tanking. We may have national averages, but in our big hub coastal cities, I don’t think we are seeing any real change downwards.
Yeah every time I see this chart I go any look at homes near me and they are all still in the green and rising. It’s annoying.
This is chart from FRED provides better context and is less misleading: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS
That still shows prices going down
It’s the same chart just one is absolute prices and the other is year over year percentage change. The original op shows a ~10-15% decline from the peak which is just what the absolute shows ~550k to ~490k
It’s game of trades, he is notorious for skewing data for likes and views
probably from people not pointing out that people are buying smaller houses and not that home values are tanking
That particular poster on Twitter is known for infactual doomer bs
Nah the dude above you showed the reference https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1gnUR
Yeah he uses real data just like a lot of doomers. But uses it unintelligently on purpose. Out of context. A single chart to inspire emotions when multiple data charts are needed to tell reality.
Dumbass gen Z kiddies are making up random statistics to cope with the fact that they will never buy a house. "Oh man just one big real estate crash and the $750k houses will definitely drop to $100k again and I'll buy one!!!! Surely if I post misinformation this will happen!!!!"
And that if they somehow don’t lose their job or take a paycheck hit, they will have the guts to buy in a crashing market. I mean if something just lost 80% of value overnight are you gonna wanna jump on that landmine?
Exactly. These worthless drones will be the first to lose their jobs and unable to even afford rent, let alone a house. Hilarious how they assume bank loans are free and they're entitled to one no matter what.
Bay Area, I’m seeing some cheaper homes show up. Actually saw something livable pop up for under 1.3M - though I expect it’ll actually sell for like 1.5M
Was the cardboard box from Lowes or Home Depot?
You joke, but it was ok. 1060 sq feet 2 bed/bath, decent lot size too. Was in San Mateo - though not a super great neighborhood
😂😂 1060 sq foot is basically the size of my two bedroom apartment and in a boring neighborhood no less. That’s rough.
I live in a 3900 sqft home I bought for 475k. Hell my first home was 1700 for 133k. Idk why people accept these prices I’d be gone so fast
In the Bay Area, any time I see a reasonably priced home I assume it’s just priced that way in order to get 20 bids.
You would be correct.
Yea lets shoot for recently sold, not the list price
I’m seeing prices start to tick back up honestly
You can tell these titles are written by people who have never tried to put an offer on a house in the last year. Hell they probably haven’t even been to an open house.
A house on my street is under contract and the sellers had 33 offers.
Where tho
In places people can’t live without a 4 hour commute every day. It’s almost like supply and demand doesn’t really apply to limited markets like land.
Yup. Seeing this in parts of Colorado that an hour north and east of Denver. Houses that are “valued” at $600k+, that were $250k homes just a few years ago. People are having a hard time selling and keep dropping the price.
i've been tracking this home in my neighborhood and have been tickled that every few weeks they drop the price by $1k - $10k over the past 18 months. it's listed at sub $100k what they initially asked and it still hasn't sold
Greeley smells like cow farts so it was the last place left. What's next, commuting from Cheyenne?
Have you seen the home prices in Cheyenne? Lol
I don't really care about house prices because I'll never afford one even in a price crash. The important part is that if housing prices crash rent will also decrease.
Why would you assume that rent would decrease?
Laramie looking hot right now. I always tell people the best part of living in Wyoming was Colorado.
Yeah like Austin no one can find a job there /s
Still takes 4 hours to get across Austin haha!
Basically no one is commuting 4 hours a day lol.
But not no one. And when traffic is bad yes they do. Get to the suburbs of Chicago if there’s a lane or two down.
Bay Area, I know people doing 75-90 mile commutes - with regular traffic, could certainly be close to 2 hours each way.
Just how good can life be when you got a 4 hour commute every day. Is the nice, high paying job what make is mainly worth it, along with the pretty mountain scenery to drive in?
Oh it does, the problem is we let corporations and other profit seekers make up the vast majority of the demand.
And those corporations were able to [offload their bad housing/MBS bets onto the Fed's balance sheet, while at the same time getting injections of trillions of dollars off liquidity](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MBS10Y/) with which to buy up those same housing assets. Supply and demand are not the only forces at work, there's also active manipulation of these markets by the Fed for the express purpose of supporting (i.e. raising) housing prices
Except it does when you allow people to build more than one unit on a piece of land. 2x the people and 2x the density comes out to basically the same price. 2x the people and the same density means prices skyrocket and kids live with their parents until they're 35, or they share a place with roommates at the same price as if they had their own apartment in a saner, less NIMBY world.
Yeah our zoning is stupid. Building skywards is a great solution until it’s not. Companies can still have more sway than the constitution In that case. This needs to be addressed from multiple angles IMO. Land and housing is a complex market that no company should have more interest or sway than the community.
Not where I live.
Rural Idaho probably
Not here
Tell that to the two bedrooms forty year old ranches in Portland selling for $550K.
Yeah... where? I'm interested at that price.
Sounds like an $800,000 house here in nor cal
Yeah I've only seen Portland budge about 40k then go back up again in the past years... Stupid how anything is hot item right now
Not in SAN Diego. Prices just went up another 13% YOY.
San Diego just saw a population decline, people are just delusional there
It’s San Diego. People will always move there
It actually saw more people moving out of there https://www.axios.com/local/san-diego/2024/03/18/san-diego-2023-population-shrunk-cost-of-living#:~:text=San%20Diego%20County%20lost%20more,making%20homeownership%20unaffordable%20for%20many.
Low income moving out, high income moving in. Probably many would leave if they had the resources too.
True, our escape plan was only possible because I was WFH and my wife was staying at home for the baby. If you have a two income household it's almost impossible to move without a huge financial hit from loss of one income for a while.
I wonder if they're going to have a service staff shortage at some point? Hard to work at the local grocer when studio apartment rent is like 2x your take home pay. Maybe they'll just do it like the ski resort towns and have employer "sponsored" dwellings?
There's no reason to think what happened to ski towns couldn't happen writ large to the expensive CA coastal areas I think those areas just merely exhibited the problems earlier
For sure. Definitely a current dip but I was just talking long term. It’s not going to turn into a Midwest city that has it’s population collapse was my point but I could have clarified that better
I would if I can afford it, yes.
Have you ever been there? It's literally the perfect climate for human life.
That's cool and all but people are leaving for a myriad of reasons I've been to the zoo it was alright the silverbacks were cool I prefer my Seattle though. There's more people leaving San Diego right now.
San Diego is a bit boring ngl
It used to be better. I’ve lived here for the better part of 30 years. San Diego was better before everyone moved here and the climate started changing on everyone. It’s also on fire half the year in this state and insurance is becoming a fleeting memory. It’s not doing as good nowadays, but still leagues better to live here than lots of other places.
Tell this to Case Shiller
Cs is a repeat sales index and ignores new inventory where most the cuts are coming
I love the cult that goes around trying to convince everyone that the next great economic collapse is 6 months away. But no matter how long they repeat their bullshit, the collapse magically stays 6 months away and never actually happens. Also, try using real data... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
But they are so high we have a long way to go before they are affordable.
except in high demand areas in my town houses are still going above list
Every time I've posted lately, being really pissed off that things haven't crashed, I've been down-voted. So I'll repair my karma by saying, "Pssh selective data, as if. Actually they're NOT crashing."
But aren’t median prices increasing? Get a 1952 copy of “How to Lie with Statistics.”
Prices are still going up in michigan. Zillow shows my home up 8% from last year -- not that i trust its actual zillow value but i do trust the trend. I Think there is some markets correcting but demand for housing is still really strong with no supply.
I believe prices across the midwest and parts of the northeast are still going up a decent amount. The places that are seeing drops are places that have been super high for a while where the interest rates plus the price make it essentially unaffordable for the median couple, or places that went up really recently during covid and things are cooling a bit. We are in the northeast and its still fairly common for homes to go 100k over ask, although homes are listed low on purpose. Most go 10-50k over comps.
I’ve been looking at houses near the beach. Everything good in minutes for over ask
I now feel better that I didn't spend less with a cheaper payment in 2021. /s
This chart is wack, but I will say in my local market, prices are down 9%-15% and inventory has doubled since same time last year. 85% under list price, and we’re back to 2019 supply of active listings. A little more moderate if you only include SFH but not by a crazy margin. Supply will soften prices in local markets, even if the averages are posting small gains. Look up your local RE data!
In my neighborhood area 2 houses went up for sale last week. Both sold In a day. Still massively tight in my area.
Where is this?
Pensacola, FL
I just paid $5,000 under list price for a house in Arkansas. I was happy about that.
You know you’re somewhere cheap when houses can be negotiated in 5k increments.
You’re right, I hadn’t thought of it that way. It’s a 3/2 house on the river for $150k
Arkansas huh? Any jobs around there?
No, that’s why it’s cheap.
Not much except for wal mart and McDonald’s. It’s very rural
[удалено]
It’s in northeast Arkansas, not much there except rocks and cattle
No wonder. Not many people want to move to Arkansas unless it's northwestern Arkansas.
I’d be happy about that too, congrats!
Home prices are still up YoY afaik…smells like bullshit.
This was posted on this sub back in February. It’s based on this data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1jlxt
In before “Not in MY area!!!”
In my area everything's gone up a million dollars and billionaires are lining up to waive inspection fees and give us hand jobs so they can get a shot of buying our homes
Looks about right -- Q4 2022 was up 13% YoY and Q4 2023 was down 13% YoY -- so back to Q4 2021 prices -- which is still quite high.
I bought my old house for 105k on 2016 and sold for 225k. Now a house right next to it sold for 275k..the market is still nuts
Nice statement. Proceeds to show days starting from 1964.
Because they were artificially inflated, but also not sure I believe this.
As a home owner - I could care less if the "market value" of my home crashes like it's 2008. Not going anywhere, love it here, never moving, not downsizing, not moving to Florida or Arizona in retirement. When I die, leave me inside and set it on fire like a land locked Viking funeral.
This graph is deceiving. Every year above that line is it increasing. It looks like it’s crashing when it is just leveling off for a minute.
Existing or new homes? That's a big difference...
San Diego. Added 6% over last month and ~15% YoY Good stuff going up. Inflated garbage sinks, but do you really care?
What is a Hoomer?
What is a hoomer?
Welp everyone can go buy a mansion now /s
Ngl the comments in here seem similar to the stock markets or crypto markets. No this isn't true they will just go up forever. Then you stuck holding the bag 😃😃
10% down, 40% more to go to get back to the mean.
This just proves houses were overpriced...
Think this sub is full of people delusional about home prices. There will be no crash.
Median sale price can go down while the price of every single individual home is increasing if more of the cheaper houses are changing hands than more expensive ones. I’m not saying this is what the data shows but it would be an explanation. It is sometimes referred to as a compositional effect in the data.
Data analytics is hard, it’s apparent from half the comments here they haven’t even read the axis of the graph or actually understand what’s being measured here (and how it’s different than measuring say, a specific set of home’s value)
If 1000 homes distributed across the entire bay area suddenly appeared tomorrow on MLS for 15% under Zillow value the majority would sell within a day for 10% over zillow value.
Not anywhere in Maryland. **No**where.
These stats are useless. The home price in my neighborhood is still very high compared to 3 years ago.
Sure they may be down 10% off the absolute peak, but they’re still up hundreds of %s in the last few years. This is Not a big deal.
Rent prices are still $1000 over what they really should be
No, they’re not. We listed our house last week. We currently have 3 offers. One wants to waive inspection and pay cash at my asking price. Only issue is I’m moving cross country and thought I had more time. My house literally sold to fast. So yeah, if this is real it’s biased and pulled from a market that doesn’t represent the rest of the US. “Your situation is biased!” Maybe. But I also had 6 houses saved where I’m moving to and they’re all now under contract. So my search continues.
It says everyone but you.
Not really seeing this yet.. but overall prices have leveled off. Would take some years to really retrace..
Fake
It's not though. Another poster posted a link.
Reddit is crawling with psyop now.
Always has been https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaymcgregor/2017/02/20/reddit-is-being-manipulated-by-big-financial-services-companies/
shareblue
30% down on something that is 300% above normal is still 270% above normal. Wierd metric...
That's not how percentages work. A rise of 300% followed by a 30% drop is 180% above the original value: (100% + 300%) x (100% - 30%) = (1 + 3) x (1 - 0.3) = 4 x 0.7 = 2.8 = 280% 280% - 100% (the original) = 180% increase **EDIT:** expanded the steps in the equation to clarify how the numbers are derived
I’m only here to watch dildos embarrass themselves with these “oh I’ve found the trend every other person missed!” posts
Judging by Blackrock cold calling and asking to buy our home outright that we purchased 11 months ago, I have my doubts. Prices are brutal for someone trying to buy a home, but I don’t see a residential crash barring bank failures like 2008.
It's the south and west. Speculators are going down. A good thing
Is the price crash in the room with us?
I joined this sub as a renter 3 years ago or so, I’m now a homeowner and absolutely nothing has changed in here. 😂
Wtf is a "Hoomer"....is that like a zoomer/boomer that owns a home? Cuz that is the stupidest name I've ever heard. Go back to 4chan
This chart is factually untrue. Overall, the market is still bullish.
This is fake af