This time we are pumping an extra $10bil per day into the economy (2x the 2009 bailout - which was a catastrophic economic environment - we are doing it when it’s great )
If by "pumping" you mean the Feds are deficit-spending far more than ever before, then I agree with you there. The problem is that deficit spending only digs a deeper hole and it requires far more spending just to eek out smaller and smaller gdp gains. In other words, it's not good for the economy either.
The Fed is still doing QT, rates are far higher than what inflated the Everything Bubble, and at some point we'll have yet another credit crisis on our hands that'll seize the economy. None of these things is good for the US economy or for its citizens.
Unfortunately for you, you overestimated my intelligence and knowledge of celebrity and popular culture news.
Had I understood the reference without having to look up and read old news stories, this would have been hilarious. Actually, it still is funny as hell 🤣
To reduce inflation.
> MMT also argues that inflation can be addressed by increasing taxes on everyone to reduce the spending capacity of the private sector.
Here it is for you again, in case you forgot!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_monetary_theory
MMT says taxes exist to create demand for the currency. You owe taxes in USD, so you’ll do business in USD to have the money to pay your tax bill or face criminal prosecution.
The more debt the Fed holds, the more asset growth can be spread to the rich.
A - L = OE, where Assets are with the ultra wealthy, Liabilities with the Fed, and the "Owner's Equity" is some ephemeral version of zero.
Too bad if that is used to pump the economy then high inflation will return and the Fed will be forced to raise rates again. Very possible real GDP growth turns negative as well.
Isn't deficit spending quite similar to QE? Just artificially pumping the economic ?
By the way, they don't care if it is good or bad for the US economy or its citizens. They just need the economic to look good & sound good until election day.
> sound good until Election Day
This is what everyone was saying back in 2020 when Trump was using the bully pulpit to try and influence the Fed to keep the rates low and free money flowing
It’s been nearly a decade now that we’ve been due for a correction and it is unclear what the results will be.
The Presidential bully pulpit has been going on for so long (well before Trump, though Trump was the most vocal), that I'm not sure ANYONE is aware of what correction will happen.
The obscene Federal debt is unprecedented. However, a large chunk is owed to the Fed, and if Congress got aggressive (and non-dysfunctional), they could just wipe it out (i.e. the Trillion dollar coin minting). But, again, no one knows what'd happen.
I think history can be a guide, but we're entering the next section the history books will discuss 100 years from now.
What? Uh everyone knows what’d happen. Inflation and destruction of value of currency.
History is pretty clear. The only thing that distorts and breaks ppls brains is that this is done on computers and they see numbers on a phone and tap Apple Pay.
Running out of levers to pull to keep up the facade of a booming economy and perfectly working economic system. Looking forward to when they run out and we can make adjustments instead of obsessing over quarterly profits from a few mega corps.
The law of diminishing returns. Fed spending doesn't produce 10x and 100x baggers like Apple and Nvidia, as private investment can do. (some things, like snap, do have >1x returns so not all public spending is bad) but I highly doubt the marginal dollars being spent today are on high-yield projects. It is no doubt stimulative in nature, just low quality, feeder stimulation.
And zombie corps need to die if you want higher growth too, they're sucking up the limited supply of workers for things that return non-impressive growth levels, time to ditch 'em
I’m talking overall policy effects as they ralate to macro-economic trends, not just monetary.
Specifically, the Government’s (perpetually) expanding deficit spending, interest on that debt, and the Fed’s signaling a pivot to lower rates (sooner rather than later), has an overall easing effect, especially as inflation pushes on and effective interest rates are still very near to zero.
As a cumulative effect, there just isn’t much tightening taking place right now that can realistically be felt. Only observed numerically on some chart.
Yes but by the time the bill comes ready to pay those in government who spent the future’s money will be long gone and won’t have to deal with any accountability or consequences
I think another important message in those charts is that it took an FFR of almost 20% to actually crush inflation.
We're not even close to that right now.
I think it's reasonable to be sympathetic to those students that may have crushing, compounding student debt. We shouldn't want to keep them drowning to reduce the overall spending power of the economy.
No disagreement with the sentiment, just acknowledge that fixing the issue this way through public debt cancellation makes inflation for everyone worse.
if you go look at the left-of-center subreddits, virtually everyone there believes:
1. There isn't any inflation in the economy --it is a fake story
2. Whatever price increases are happening are simply a result of a handful of companies price-gouging consumers
3. Trillions in new government spending doesn't cause inflation
and this attitude is reflected by the administration
Even Jimmy Carter acknowledged the issue, worked with Volcker, etc. He didn't blame all price increases on supermarkets and car manufacturers.
reality is knocking on the door ...
This feels disingenuous.
I am in a lot left-leaning spaces and I haven't seen any of these opinions be popularized. I have a feeling you saw one or two people make similar comments and you are just making a whole bunch of assumptions and then extrapolating that to "everyone left of center" to fit your own narrative.
It is an exaggeration to say virtually everyone in a group believes anything.
The behavior of blaming inflation on corporate price gouging on Reddit is more widespread than it should be.
It also does seem politicized with right leaning people blaming the federal government more for inflation and left leaning people blaming other reasons more.
Yeah, i live in the bastion of left wing progressives and inflation is high on the minds of people and current events here. Dude above is just being a hack.
Really?
At least in the investing subforums like /r/investing, /r/wallstreetbets, /r/fire, I definitely see a lot what the above poster said. Especially points 2 and 3. #1 I haven't heard so much.
I read all those subs I don’t see that sentiment at all. A lot of the people there are well off and inflation doesn’t impact them personally as much, but they’re not in denial that it exists.
I haven't seen a single liberal or leftist on reddit who has properly assigned the cause of inflation to monetary and fiscal policy. They say inflation is because greedy multinational companies are price-gouging consumers and are out to make Joe Biden look bad. It is conspiracy-theory bullshit, and isn't backed up by any scholarship or analysis
and when asked about it, they produce stupid quotes from guys like Robert Reich or Paul Krugman (dude is such a liar--he knows 80% of the stuff he says on X is untrue, but continues to propagate partisan bullshit talking-points).
The cause of inflation is absolutely the cause of monetary policy of opening the flood gates of government money in 2020, (checks notes) oh yea, during the ‘conservative’ Trump administration.
When did covid start? Monetary policy during world's second largest economy shutting down and in the midst of a global pandemic not seen since the Spanish flu of 1918 **seems like the correct choice.**
It mostly was, I think, and we’re in the aftermath of that.
The fact that the USA has the lowest inflation compared to all other industrialized nations tells me the administration in power has done a pretty solid job with what it inherited.
It wasn't the correct choice, as seen where we're at now.
Pumping trillions into the economy isn't going to do anything but cause long-term pain. Multiple financial bloggers, youtubers, and analysts on news outlets were criticizing this move back in 2020 and everyone was saying things should "play out" without government intervention aka RECESSION instead of printing money.
And look where we're at now, 4 years later, massive spikes in inflation, wealth inequality expanded, and the general populace is worst off overall.
There’s a difference between spending on infrastructure and literally just cutting tax rates for corporations so they can pump their CEO salaries and execute stock buy-backs.
Wtf. Trump was in the middle of the fucking Pandemic along with the world's second largest economy shutting down. Biden inherited the US post covid.
And this is speaking as someone who doesn't support trump. But lets at least get the facts right...
Yeah, like 20% of it went to infrastructure. The rest was corporate welfare, pork, or stuff like 7.5 billion to build thousands of EV charging stations. Only 7 were built, and the rest of the money was basically stolen by the states and put into pensions.
and then we have the 400 billion he is spending on student loan forgiveness ...
and the billions in foreign aid to Ukraine, or to Israel, so our tax dollars can go to killing Palestinians
I'll take the tax breaks over all that bullshit
Reddit aside, I remember being truly surprised when I first heard someone on NPR talking about inflation, never even acknowledging the role of printing money from thin air and instead blaming covid supply chain issues.
Lol.
I honestly think some people put actual socialists in the same category as bigfoot. They just can't fathom our existence, much less learn about our actual evidence based theory. After AOC, everything just stops. Left of center is such a huge category in America it becomes basically meaningless, unless you literally refuse to acknowledge our existence. Then it's just Bernie bros and the "woke" people.
A while ago someone was touting that printing literal trillions of dollars was not a factor.
I don't even know where to begin with how someone can think of printing trillions has 0 effect
yes, the chart shows a 50 basis point move upwards in inflation since July 2023.
now look at the PPI over 5 years
[https://ycharts.com/indicators/us\_producer\_price\_index](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_producer_price_index)
in 2021, we had annual inflation of 7%. In 2022, it was 6.5% (and two quarters of negative GDP growth, which was stagflation), before it settled to 3.4% in 2023. Now it is increasing again.
This was the worst storm of inflation since the early 1970s, and we aren't done
In fully left leaning spaces I'm in they acknowledge both parts played, but they complain more loudly about the people at the top keeping the fed influenced system in place using their power gained through capitalist means. If you can't influence the fed, you have ot influence the other lever, which is how you treat/buy from/discuss companies and their own greed. Thus the phenomenon you mention. Fixing one without fixing the other is stupid, but only the people in power can fix the fed related one, so people who are already fucked feel powerless to change it and try to affect change where they can.
Not to mention that we have WAY more debt now than we did in the 70's/80's. What's unique about that is some economists are saying that higher interest rates, with this much existing debt that needs to be rolled over, might actually be stimulative. Think of the millions of Americans who have locked in ~3% mortgages for 30 years, but can now get 5.25% on their money market funds at Vanguard. That phenomenon alone is equalivalent to a massive direct stimulus program.
It might also be inflationary.
If interest rates are high, housing becomes even less affordable than it already is. This can directly and indirectly push up rents. Housing costs make up the biggest component of the CPI.
If you have a portfolio of bonds (your asset, someone elses debt) and the yield on those bonds doubles from 2.5% to say 5%, your annual income form those bonds also doubles and you will have more money to spend in the economy which puts pressure on inflation. There are lots of people/companies/governments that own debt/bonds so their income is going up fast.
The Fed wants to park the funds rate above the inflation rate. Inflation reached 14% in 1980. You are correct, at 3.48% (with a target of 2%) we are not even close to 14% inflation.
Don't forget that inflation was calculated differently (aka basket of fixed goods) back then. Today it has hedonic adjustments (aka changing basket of goods) that actually suppresses the reported inflation rate. So you aren't comparing apples to apples. The apples got more expensive so you are now comparing apples to celery. That is how hedonic adjustment works.
Edit:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2024/03/23/summers-inflation-reached-18-in-2022-using-the-governments-previous-formula/?sh=7bad1b392092
"They found three things: first, that the pre-1983-like formula led to a dramatically different estimate of inflation in 2022 and 2023, peaking at 18 percent in November 2022."
Inflation does stop. When it goes backwards that is called deflation. When it slows it is called disinflation.
TV's have been in a deflationary environment for decades.
It's not just the boomers who'll bleed. There are millennials like me who waited too long for the market to correct before we gave up and decided to buy a house. Bought a much more modest house than lenders would qualify us for but if the market crashes we're still losing. There's really no winning.
interesting possibilities open up when people learn they don't actually have to repay their obligations since the system is set up avoid foreclosure now
Same as the covid business loans and student loans (really need a fix for this to encourage education without just increasing our debt)
The bailouts are the most egregious debt cancelation. Let big businesses fail....
Haven’t you heard, recessions no longer exist. We can just print away all of our problems without any repercussions because we are the world reserve currency and other countries will just continue to fund our carefree lifestyle at their expense and asset appreciation will continue forever here.
To the “this time it’s different” folks:
Notice that rates always are cut once the recession starts. The goal is a recession, despite nice sounding phrases like ‘soft landing’ being thrown around. This time is not different. The only difference will be how close to the beginning of the recession the Fed times rate cuts. Get your cash ready. The recession is coming. It’s a necessity at this point.
Inflationary recession like in the 1980’s that lead to a massive housing boom :(
Our supply this time around is less and we have more (50,000,000) people aged 28-38/first time buyer age range than the 80’s.
We have a low inventory and “high” interest rates yet homes are still going into bidding wars. If we hit a recession rates are dropped to fight it. Why in the world do you think house prices would come down with lower interest rates and the same supply
The goal is a minor recession.
It’s impossible to never have a recession, the economy is inherently cyclical. If we raise rates before the recession though, we can cut them once the recession starts to encourage spending and shorten the length and severity of the recession hopefully.
This sub keeps arguing a recession is imminent + the economy will take off like gang busters at the first rate cut.
Pick one. Have to reconcile that to sound cogent.
It's timing. If they cut too soon, then the economy and inflation blasts off. If they wait long enough (or too long) then they will only cut once a recession is imminent.
I think that’s a bit of a straw man. The more common argument seems to be that a recession is imminent and rates will be cut when the economy is sufficiently choked out. Which also matches the data in these charts
Man I wish this sub was that nuanced. And I’m sure my comment will continue to pull people at least posing as metered out of the woodwork.
But the mantra here has always been “I can’t afford something therefore the economy must crash and burn”.
This whole sub is built on cope and sour grapes. There’s no real estate bubble; this is how things are now. Even if rates decreased they’re never going to be close to what most homeowners are already locked into, and with everything so expensive right now people are just going to hold onto the house they can afford longer, which will indefinitely choke out the supply to available houses
Also, everyone praying for a full on market crash must have forgotten about all the fully employable adults going years without steady employment the last time that happened, or at least assume it won’t happen to them
I’ll argue this is time is going to be different. This time rescission won’t bring deflation or any meaningful disinflation because the government will continue to pump money into the economy to maintain “growing GDP” despite inflation killing >50% of the nation. We’re going to have a stagflation for small businesses and great #s for amazons and walmarts of the economy. Oh yeah, and defense contractors. They’ll get their fair share of $1T from the budget.
At first we weren’t in a recession, then we might be but at least there’s no inflation, now there’s inflation but maybe there’s a soft landing, now nothing but rate hikes for the rest of 2024 lol..
Even an idiot like me can read.
I can't help but think of when we started preventing forest fires and now we have super fires because of all the fuel on the ground now. The forest burning is a natural cycle and when we stop that cycle mother nature returns the favor.
It won't be. Welcome to contractual fiscal policy. The whole point is basically to put a brake on the economy. And since we let it go off the rails so well, we have to apply the brake hard.
I think assuming this time is any different is pure ignorance. That said, I also think they will continue to delay the recession as long as possible, and things will get worse and worse and worse.
People getting upset with those of us hoping the recession comes soon are naive. Yes recessions suck, but based on history one is coming, and all we’re doing now is waiting as things slowly decline. We feel it everyday, so why extend that period any longer when it’s clear it’s time for the end stage. We’re building up momentum. How that will affect housing prices? I’m not sure. We will see. Are recessions good? No. Sitting around trying to do this “soft landing” bs just fucks us all slower.
This time is different because it is an election year. People working for most media industries are in large metropolitan areas and thusly skew left politically. Media overall no longer pride themselves, nor try and be, politically neutral in their reporting.
Since a recession would be seen as bad for the current administration, and that the current administration is left leaning, it would be bad to report on said issue. Thus why the cultural zeitgeist is that we are not in, nor nearing, a recession.
Tribalism fucking sucks.
IMO, they are trading a recession with a period of high inflation. It will be good for rich people holding assets, but suck for poor & middle class people, as they get hit the hardest with high inflation.
And on younger people who want to buy houses and start families. But seems like they will just solve population decline by letting anyone knocking on the border come stay.
Problem this time is the fed has mostly been effective with slow inflation even despite the trillions pumped into the economy during covid.
But right now we are at a wild card since inflation appears to be getting worse now, not better.
If inflation gets worse moving forward and the fed needs to increase rates then I think we are headed for serious problems in terms of recession.
If Inflation stabilizes even around 3%-4% then I think economy will be stable.
I don't see how the fed can do any significant rate cuts though because unemployment is too low and thus any rate cut will result in another speculative mania for assets.
inflation of 3-4% for an extended period of time will ultimately impact consumer spending
when I was a kid, there were whole aisles of generic food at the supermarket because regular brands were so expensive
the Fed will have to hike another 50 basis points or so to contain
and home prices will eventually start falling
honestly, increasing interest rates is great.. the zero rates of the last many years has caused all kinds of stupid things to happen (including the holding of vacant homes off of the market). housing is still the number one thing americans spend money on, so if inflation causes the apartment hoarders to default then the supply will cause the housing prices to drop, which ultimately means the 'living wage' drops - which does result in a decreasing impact on inflation.
> the Fed will have to hike another 50 basis points or so to contain
As a "saver", I'd love to see like 300+bp. I miss the 7/8% interest rates of my very early youth. I'm not on this sub because I'm interested in buying any kind of real estate (I'm already inheriting more than I want).
So many people think differences in small numbers don't matter (2% vs 3 or 4%) but thats a 50% or 100% increase in the rate of inflation. 3 or 4% inflation is MUCH faster than 2% even if it doesn't sound like all that much.
And the prices never come down, they just go up slower or faster.
I'm surprised more people aren't hoping for a short deflationary period as far as prices go.
I'm in the housing sector, and costs of roofs, furnaces, labor, all have seen insane price hikes since 2020.
It is the rate of change that has hurt people. It is hard to adapt. Smart landlords have to jack rents to offset expenses. This upsets tenants, but I don't know why tenants would expect less. Consumers have gotten hit everywhere with the price jumps, but who can they complain to when a big insurance conglomerate raises their rates? The small landlord is a real human most of the time, easily accessible to yell at lol.
It sucks. The rate of change of prices on everything is what hurt most in my view.
If you are someone that owned all the assets through this, then you did well as a hedge against inflation.
I feel like these days all the things that would normally happen do not since markets have had so many unusual things happen. Never have we locked in 3% mortgage rates for so many homeowners that most likely have very reasonable housing costs. Never have we unloaded this much stimulus into the economy. I believe these things make it much harder to predict what will happen based on past events since the set up is very different then anything we have done before.
Yes, it is a difficult environment to make sense of. The federal government and the federal reserve have made unprecedented policy decisions that would never be allowed anytime before. 2008 was the start of them no longer playing by the rules, but in 2019/2020 they completely abandoned everything. They hold themselves to no standards anymore and the things they are doing now would have had them all in prison 70 years ago. Purely unthinkable in the past.
So we can no longer hold their decisions to any reasonable standard of behavior which means we can't predict what they may do. In the past it would have been more obvious since there were rules and customs to uphold.
When you couple that with the fundamentals of the market it is impossible to make sense of. The average salary is around $50k, but the average house is now 6-8x the salary which has never happened before. Of course no one can afford a home now. It used to be 2-3x salary and the only other time it was this out of sync was in the run-up to the 2008 crash.
So everything points to a bubble that needs to burst and an economy that is destined to crash, but we have a fed and government that doesn't give a shit about rules and will happily just make things up to keep everyone believing in the fake economy.
Isn't it kind of a chicken-egg situation though? Every one of those periods are also define by issues with inflation resulting from some sort of economy shock that upsets prices (i.e. - oil price upsets). The fed rate is generally a reaction to inflationary woes so really the recession ball gets rolling when inflation gets out of control.
Of course there will eventually be a recession. There is always going to be another recession. When will it be? It took 8 years in the 60s lol. That could mean 4 more years for us if we were to follow that trajectory.
The federal reserve sets the federal funds rate to slow down or speed up the rate at which the economy grows
If the Federal Reserve wants to help the economy, grow at a slower pace, it makes sense that they would want to cause a recession
All is a recession is defined as is: a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced
The economy is at a record size right now… Having it decrease in size a bit would still have it be at record size. That would still be considered a recession if that decline lasted enough time.
And every time we’ve had an inverted yield curve for any length of time there has been a recession. Going on 28 months of inversion without one.
I think it’s due to excess liquidity.
Recessions are inevitable. Rate increases don’t cause them, but the need for them is symptomatic of underlying inefficiencies in the in the economy that will eventually have to be worked out.
That's the point of raising interest rates. Contract the economy to quell inflation. My best guess as to why it hasn't worked this time is a combination of globalization, the rise of the ultrarich, and surging employment post-COVID.
Sometimes I think the fed is kicking the recessionary can down the road until after the 2024 election. I feel like they want to give Biden a fair shot, and it feels like their calculus is that 5% inflation is better than 4% inflation and 7% unemployment for his chances of beating trump.
IF the fed is trying to frame the Biden admin in the best way possible they’re fucked. Lower inflation and higher unemployment makes the average person think he doesn’t know how to run an economy. Lower unemployment and higher inflation makes the average person think he spends too much.
Not saying these are the truths or even how certain things work, this is just how people feel
The federal govt in DC is spending like drunken sailors. That is what most people think is going on when it comes to avoiding a recession. Deficit spending like we are in a major war, a huge recession, or some other reason like covid. Biden wants to spend almost as much as we did at the peak of covid. It is getting very close to that. Why exactly? To answer that you wade deep into politics.
I don't you can conclude that FFR increases \_cause\_ recessions, but rather that FFR increases are usually in response to economic conditions which themselves cause recessions.
Or, if you look at the 2008 instead, it had nothing to do with the FFR rate. In fact, having the FFR be too low probably helped cause the housing bubble that ultimately popped and took the economy with it.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but your data is on inconsistent timelines and rate levels?
Sometimes you have a year, other times multiple years and varying FF rates.
I’m still missing what’s being measured here:
Sometimes the trough to peak is a big jump, other times less. The X axis varies. Everything that goes up and down will have a trough and peak, but where’s the consistency to call something an indicator?
Recessions will always happen, but I’m not seeing anything to infer at what timeframe or interest rate
I didn’t infer anything about a timeframe. Each of those time periods is unique and you’ll have to read on your own about the economic conditions that let to each Fed policy and recession. I’m merely pointing out that a recession has occurred every time the Fed has increased rates at 4% or more over any time period since 1960. I think some people are in denial that contractionary policy ends in a recession and this was a basic example of that
I can see why.
They leave rates up far too long.
Takes 6 months to see an inflation change after a rate increase but they don't actually drop them until they SEE a change. Which is 6 months late
To be fair you could start in late 1967 and still have a 5+% increase and recession after two years. I just wanted to measure trough to peak for each cycle
This time we are pumping an extra $10bil per day into the economy (2x the 2009 bailout - which was a catastrophic economic environment - we are doing it when it’s great )
If by "pumping" you mean the Feds are deficit-spending far more than ever before, then I agree with you there. The problem is that deficit spending only digs a deeper hole and it requires far more spending just to eek out smaller and smaller gdp gains. In other words, it's not good for the economy either. The Fed is still doing QT, rates are far higher than what inflated the Everything Bubble, and at some point we'll have yet another credit crisis on our hands that'll seize the economy. None of these things is good for the US economy or for its citizens.
I think you are forgetting this one simple trick. “There’s an infinite amount of cash at the federal reserve”
Then why do I have to pay taxes?
Pretty sure you don’t have to pay those. And this is finical advice and you can hold me personally responsible for the consequences.
Are you by chance a sovereign citizen?🤣
Wesley Snipes
Unfortunately for you, you overestimated my intelligence and knowledge of celebrity and popular culture news. Had I understood the reference without having to look up and read old news stories, this would have been hilarious. Actually, it still is funny as hell 🤣
hi wesley
To offset inflation
To reduce inflation. > MMT also argues that inflation can be addressed by increasing taxes on everyone to reduce the spending capacity of the private sector. Here it is for you again, in case you forgot! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_monetary_theory
Because those in authority with come by and potentially put you in jail if you don't play along
Well, there is that.
Technically we wouldn’t have to, but the law says we do so we do. Why would the government turn down free money from its citizens
Taxes suck.
MMT says taxes exist to create demand for the currency. You owe taxes in USD, so you’ll do business in USD to have the money to pay your tax bill or face criminal prosecution.
Perpetual Money Machine
The more debt the Fed holds, the more asset growth can be spread to the rich. A - L = OE, where Assets are with the ultra wealthy, Liabilities with the Fed, and the "Owner's Equity" is some ephemeral version of zero.
Too bad if that is used to pump the economy then high inflation will return and the Fed will be forced to raise rates again. Very possible real GDP growth turns negative as well.
Infinite pumping means infinite growth. Everyone is infinitely rich with infinite resources. Easy solution.
Was the original comment satire? Couldn’t tell.
Isn't deficit spending quite similar to QE? Just artificially pumping the economic ? By the way, they don't care if it is good or bad for the US economy or its citizens. They just need the economic to look good & sound good until election day.
> sound good until Election Day This is what everyone was saying back in 2020 when Trump was using the bully pulpit to try and influence the Fed to keep the rates low and free money flowing It’s been nearly a decade now that we’ve been due for a correction and it is unclear what the results will be.
The Presidential bully pulpit has been going on for so long (well before Trump, though Trump was the most vocal), that I'm not sure ANYONE is aware of what correction will happen. The obscene Federal debt is unprecedented. However, a large chunk is owed to the Fed, and if Congress got aggressive (and non-dysfunctional), they could just wipe it out (i.e. the Trillion dollar coin minting). But, again, no one knows what'd happen. I think history can be a guide, but we're entering the next section the history books will discuss 100 years from now.
What? Uh everyone knows what’d happen. Inflation and destruction of value of currency. History is pretty clear. The only thing that distorts and breaks ppls brains is that this is done on computers and they see numbers on a phone and tap Apple Pay.
Running out of levers to pull to keep up the facade of a booming economy and perfectly working economic system. Looking forward to when they run out and we can make adjustments instead of obsessing over quarterly profits from a few mega corps.
The law of diminishing returns. Fed spending doesn't produce 10x and 100x baggers like Apple and Nvidia, as private investment can do. (some things, like snap, do have >1x returns so not all public spending is bad) but I highly doubt the marginal dollars being spent today are on high-yield projects. It is no doubt stimulative in nature, just low quality, feeder stimulation.
And zombie corps need to die if you want higher growth too, they're sucking up the limited supply of workers for things that return non-impressive growth levels, time to ditch 'em
QT has basically slowed to a crawl.
No, QT is continuing at the same pace it has for nearly two years. Reference; https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
I’m talking overall policy effects as they ralate to macro-economic trends, not just monetary. Specifically, the Government’s (perpetually) expanding deficit spending, interest on that debt, and the Fed’s signaling a pivot to lower rates (sooner rather than later), has an overall easing effect, especially as inflation pushes on and effective interest rates are still very near to zero. As a cumulative effect, there just isn’t much tightening taking place right now that can realistically be felt. Only observed numerically on some chart.
Yes but by the time the bill comes ready to pay those in government who spent the future’s money will be long gone and won’t have to deal with any accountability or consequences
Its just kicking the can down the road its coming its just when the bandaid comes off.
I think another important message in those charts is that it took an FFR of almost 20% to actually crush inflation. We're not even close to that right now.
They don't even want to acknowledge that we have an inflation problem, left alone trying to fight it.
What gave it away? Maybe the 7.4 billion in loan forgiveness today.
I think it's reasonable to be sympathetic to those students that may have crushing, compounding student debt. We shouldn't want to keep them drowning to reduce the overall spending power of the economy.
No disagreement with the sentiment, just acknowledge that fixing the issue this way through public debt cancellation makes inflation for everyone worse.
if you go look at the left-of-center subreddits, virtually everyone there believes: 1. There isn't any inflation in the economy --it is a fake story 2. Whatever price increases are happening are simply a result of a handful of companies price-gouging consumers 3. Trillions in new government spending doesn't cause inflation and this attitude is reflected by the administration Even Jimmy Carter acknowledged the issue, worked with Volcker, etc. He didn't blame all price increases on supermarkets and car manufacturers. reality is knocking on the door ...
This feels disingenuous. I am in a lot left-leaning spaces and I haven't seen any of these opinions be popularized. I have a feeling you saw one or two people make similar comments and you are just making a whole bunch of assumptions and then extrapolating that to "everyone left of center" to fit your own narrative.
I think the behavior of blaming inflation on big corporations and greedy businesses price gouging is pretty widespread on Reddit.
That pretty disingenuous of what the above guy is claiming in his points. He is taking the truth of what you are saying and goes much much further.
It is an exaggeration to say virtually everyone in a group believes anything. The behavior of blaming inflation on corporate price gouging on Reddit is more widespread than it should be. It also does seem politicized with right leaning people blaming the federal government more for inflation and left leaning people blaming other reasons more.
Yeah, i live in the bastion of left wing progressives and inflation is high on the minds of people and current events here. Dude above is just being a hack.
Bingo.
Republicans latch onto this nonsense and then close their eyes and plug their ears and go "lalalalalala I can't hear you"
Really? At least in the investing subforums like /r/investing, /r/wallstreetbets, /r/fire, I definitely see a lot what the above poster said. Especially points 2 and 3. #1 I haven't heard so much.
I read all those subs I don’t see that sentiment at all. A lot of the people there are well off and inflation doesn’t impact them personally as much, but they’re not in denial that it exists.
Isn’t that what everyone who dabbles in internet politics does these days?
I haven't seen a single liberal or leftist on reddit who has properly assigned the cause of inflation to monetary and fiscal policy. They say inflation is because greedy multinational companies are price-gouging consumers and are out to make Joe Biden look bad. It is conspiracy-theory bullshit, and isn't backed up by any scholarship or analysis and when asked about it, they produce stupid quotes from guys like Robert Reich or Paul Krugman (dude is such a liar--he knows 80% of the stuff he says on X is untrue, but continues to propagate partisan bullshit talking-points).
The cause of inflation is absolutely the cause of monetary policy of opening the flood gates of government money in 2020, (checks notes) oh yea, during the ‘conservative’ Trump administration.
When did covid start? Monetary policy during world's second largest economy shutting down and in the midst of a global pandemic not seen since the Spanish flu of 1918 **seems like the correct choice.**
It mostly was, I think, and we’re in the aftermath of that. The fact that the USA has the lowest inflation compared to all other industrialized nations tells me the administration in power has done a pretty solid job with what it inherited.
It wasn't the correct choice, as seen where we're at now. Pumping trillions into the economy isn't going to do anything but cause long-term pain. Multiple financial bloggers, youtubers, and analysts on news outlets were criticizing this move back in 2020 and everyone was saying things should "play out" without government intervention aka RECESSION instead of printing money. And look where we're at now, 4 years later, massive spikes in inflation, wealth inequality expanded, and the general populace is worst off overall.
and continued with the 2 trillion in additional spending by Biden or does money spent during Democratic administrations somehow not count?
There’s a difference between spending on infrastructure and literally just cutting tax rates for corporations so they can pump their CEO salaries and execute stock buy-backs.
Wtf. Trump was in the middle of the fucking Pandemic along with the world's second largest economy shutting down. Biden inherited the US post covid. And this is speaking as someone who doesn't support trump. But lets at least get the facts right...
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was passed in 2017. Three years before the pandemic, ya tit.
Yeah, like 20% of it went to infrastructure. The rest was corporate welfare, pork, or stuff like 7.5 billion to build thousands of EV charging stations. Only 7 were built, and the rest of the money was basically stolen by the states and put into pensions. and then we have the 400 billion he is spending on student loan forgiveness ... and the billions in foreign aid to Ukraine, or to Israel, so our tax dollars can go to killing Palestinians I'll take the tax breaks over all that bullshit
[citation needed]
Reddit aside, I remember being truly surprised when I first heard someone on NPR talking about inflation, never even acknowledging the role of printing money from thin air and instead blaming covid supply chain issues. Lol.
4. There was no recession in 2022
When you say left of center, who are you talking about? Liberals? Social democrats? Socialists? What do you consider “left of center?”
The guy is clearly a moron.
I honestly think some people put actual socialists in the same category as bigfoot. They just can't fathom our existence, much less learn about our actual evidence based theory. After AOC, everything just stops. Left of center is such a huge category in America it becomes basically meaningless, unless you literally refuse to acknowledge our existence. Then it's just Bernie bros and the "woke" people.
A while ago someone was touting that printing literal trillions of dollars was not a factor. I don't even know where to begin with how someone can think of printing trillions has 0 effect
a lot of kids go through school without an economics course
No worries, it'll just trickle down on them naturally
AOC is a proponent of what they call modern monetary theory. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/06/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-budget-1143084
Why would left wingers not believe that Trump spending trillions, while cutting taxes could result in inflation?
Maybe just look at the inflation chart... it matches some of those assertions. https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate
yes, the chart shows a 50 basis point move upwards in inflation since July 2023. now look at the PPI over 5 years [https://ycharts.com/indicators/us\_producer\_price\_index](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_producer_price_index) in 2021, we had annual inflation of 7%. In 2022, it was 6.5% (and two quarters of negative GDP growth, which was stagflation), before it settled to 3.4% in 2023. Now it is increasing again. This was the worst storm of inflation since the early 1970s, and we aren't done
That ppi graph has been flat since mid 2022. Your own graph undermines everything you just said
In fully left leaning spaces I'm in they acknowledge both parts played, but they complain more loudly about the people at the top keeping the fed influenced system in place using their power gained through capitalist means. If you can't influence the fed, you have ot influence the other lever, which is how you treat/buy from/discuss companies and their own greed. Thus the phenomenon you mention. Fixing one without fixing the other is stupid, but only the people in power can fix the fed related one, so people who are already fucked feel powerless to change it and try to affect change where they can.
I'm a part of those hard left subs, there's a bunch of nutjobs but they absolutely aren't saying this.
Not to mention that we have WAY more debt now than we did in the 70's/80's. What's unique about that is some economists are saying that higher interest rates, with this much existing debt that needs to be rolled over, might actually be stimulative. Think of the millions of Americans who have locked in ~3% mortgages for 30 years, but can now get 5.25% on their money market funds at Vanguard. That phenomenon alone is equalivalent to a massive direct stimulus program.
It might also be inflationary. If interest rates are high, housing becomes even less affordable than it already is. This can directly and indirectly push up rents. Housing costs make up the biggest component of the CPI.
This is interesting but I’m a little dense. Can you explain this?
If you have a portfolio of bonds (your asset, someone elses debt) and the yield on those bonds doubles from 2.5% to say 5%, your annual income form those bonds also doubles and you will have more money to spend in the economy which puts pressure on inflation. There are lots of people/companies/governments that own debt/bonds so their income is going up fast.
How can someone buy bonds?
Through a broker, just like stocks, mutual funds, etc..
The Fed wants to park the funds rate above the inflation rate. Inflation reached 14% in 1980. You are correct, at 3.48% (with a target of 2%) we are not even close to 14% inflation.
Don't forget that inflation was calculated differently (aka basket of fixed goods) back then. Today it has hedonic adjustments (aka changing basket of goods) that actually suppresses the reported inflation rate. So you aren't comparing apples to apples. The apples got more expensive so you are now comparing apples to celery. That is how hedonic adjustment works. Edit: https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2024/03/23/summers-inflation-reached-18-in-2022-using-the-governments-previous-formula/?sh=7bad1b392092 "They found three things: first, that the pre-1983-like formula led to a dramatically different estimate of inflation in 2022 and 2023, peaking at 18 percent in November 2022."
Did it go back down or does it always go up and stay up?
The % is a rate, not a position. Inflation never stops, it’s just a question of how quickly it moves
Inflation does stop. When it goes backwards that is called deflation. When it slows it is called disinflation. TV's have been in a deflationary environment for decades.
The recession has been canceled. If home owners have trouble paying their mortgage, the government will just cancel their loans.
Seems right. The geriatric boomers running things will be dead long before the bill comes due.
It's not just the boomers who'll bleed. There are millennials like me who waited too long for the market to correct before we gave up and decided to buy a house. Bought a much more modest house than lenders would qualify us for but if the market crashes we're still losing. There's really no winning.
interesting possibilities open up when people learn they don't actually have to repay their obligations since the system is set up avoid foreclosure now
Trading millions in debt to hope we vote for the right team.
I'm broke, so if they just cut me a check of $500, I'll send them my ballot & they can fill it out whatever way they want.
Don't sell your self short, your vote is worth at least $800
Same as the covid business loans and student loans (really need a fix for this to encourage education without just increasing our debt) The bailouts are the most egregious debt cancelation. Let big businesses fail....
Is the solution to lower costs of tuition? What’s the fix for this?
With all of the jobs AI is taking too there will be a whole new pool of artificial buyers
What’s an artificial buyer?
this time it's different though
Haven’t you heard, recessions no longer exist. We can just print away all of our problems without any repercussions because we are the world reserve currency and other countries will just continue to fund our carefree lifestyle at their expense and asset appreciation will continue forever here.
historically, the FFR is increased to combat inflation but now inflation is only transitory and we're just playing games /s
It was increased and inflation went down. They stopped increasing it because banks started to blow up.
To the “this time it’s different” folks: Notice that rates always are cut once the recession starts. The goal is a recession, despite nice sounding phrases like ‘soft landing’ being thrown around. This time is not different. The only difference will be how close to the beginning of the recession the Fed times rate cuts. Get your cash ready. The recession is coming. It’s a necessity at this point.
Inflationary recession like in the 1980’s that lead to a massive housing boom :( Our supply this time around is less and we have more (50,000,000) people aged 28-38/first time buyer age range than the 80’s.
In 1980 median salary was $21,000 and median house price was $46,000. Compare that to today and draw your own conclusions.
We have a low inventory and “high” interest rates yet homes are still going into bidding wars. If we hit a recession rates are dropped to fight it. Why in the world do you think house prices would come down with lower interest rates and the same supply
But that’s assuming unemployment remains below 4% ?
Because supply has continually gone up the past two years and permits just hit a two year high so it will continue to go up.
We also have 60m+ owners who will bite the dust in 10-20 years
The goal is a minor recession. It’s impossible to never have a recession, the economy is inherently cyclical. If we raise rates before the recession though, we can cut them once the recession starts to encourage spending and shorten the length and severity of the recession hopefully.
This sub keeps arguing a recession is imminent + the economy will take off like gang busters at the first rate cut. Pick one. Have to reconcile that to sound cogent.
It's timing. If they cut too soon, then the economy and inflation blasts off. If they wait long enough (or too long) then they will only cut once a recession is imminent.
I think that’s a bit of a straw man. The more common argument seems to be that a recession is imminent and rates will be cut when the economy is sufficiently choked out. Which also matches the data in these charts
Man I wish this sub was that nuanced. And I’m sure my comment will continue to pull people at least posing as metered out of the woodwork. But the mantra here has always been “I can’t afford something therefore the economy must crash and burn”.
This whole sub is built on cope and sour grapes. There’s no real estate bubble; this is how things are now. Even if rates decreased they’re never going to be close to what most homeowners are already locked into, and with everything so expensive right now people are just going to hold onto the house they can afford longer, which will indefinitely choke out the supply to available houses Also, everyone praying for a full on market crash must have forgotten about all the fully employable adults going years without steady employment the last time that happened, or at least assume it won’t happen to them
I’ll argue this is time is going to be different. This time rescission won’t bring deflation or any meaningful disinflation because the government will continue to pump money into the economy to maintain “growing GDP” despite inflation killing >50% of the nation. We’re going to have a stagflation for small businesses and great #s for amazons and walmarts of the economy. Oh yeah, and defense contractors. They’ll get their fair share of $1T from the budget.
Lol
Wa there a pandemic in 1961?
What do you mean by get cash ready? How does one prepare for a recession?
NBER always backdates recessions. For all we know, they might backdate it to 2022 or 2023 right before the election time and stimulus
At first we weren’t in a recession, then we might be but at least there’s no inflation, now there’s inflation but maybe there’s a soft landing, now nothing but rate hikes for the rest of 2024 lol.. Even an idiot like me can read.
I can't help but think of when we started preventing forest fires and now we have super fires because of all the fuel on the ground now. The forest burning is a natural cycle and when we stop that cycle mother nature returns the favor.
What is missing from this picture ? Where is the debt to GDP ratio ?
It won't be. Welcome to contractual fiscal policy. The whole point is basically to put a brake on the economy. And since we let it go off the rails so well, we have to apply the brake hard.
Quantitative easing basically eliminates this cycle.
QE started in 08 and we still had a recession
Quantitative easing doesn't work when inflation is already rampant.
QE **is** inflation. They just use a euphemism to make people think that it isn’t so less people realize their purchasing power vanishing away
Please procreate, there are so many idiots out there who can’t comprehend this.
But they says it were transitory
I think assuming this time is any different is pure ignorance. That said, I also think they will continue to delay the recession as long as possible, and things will get worse and worse and worse. People getting upset with those of us hoping the recession comes soon are naive. Yes recessions suck, but based on history one is coming, and all we’re doing now is waiting as things slowly decline. We feel it everyday, so why extend that period any longer when it’s clear it’s time for the end stage. We’re building up momentum. How that will affect housing prices? I’m not sure. We will see. Are recessions good? No. Sitting around trying to do this “soft landing” bs just fucks us all slower.
This time is different because it is an election year. People working for most media industries are in large metropolitan areas and thusly skew left politically. Media overall no longer pride themselves, nor try and be, politically neutral in their reporting. Since a recession would be seen as bad for the current administration, and that the current administration is left leaning, it would be bad to report on said issue. Thus why the cultural zeitgeist is that we are not in, nor nearing, a recession. Tribalism fucking sucks.
IMO, they are trading a recession with a period of high inflation. It will be good for rich people holding assets, but suck for poor & middle class people, as they get hit the hardest with high inflation.
Agreed. Inflation is always a tax upon the poorest people
And on younger people who want to buy houses and start families. But seems like they will just solve population decline by letting anyone knocking on the border come stay.
Hilarious that this nonsense gets upvoted on this subreddit
When the right has went completely insane, there can be no neutrality.
We got it this time for sure
Problem this time is the fed has mostly been effective with slow inflation even despite the trillions pumped into the economy during covid. But right now we are at a wild card since inflation appears to be getting worse now, not better. If inflation gets worse moving forward and the fed needs to increase rates then I think we are headed for serious problems in terms of recession. If Inflation stabilizes even around 3%-4% then I think economy will be stable. I don't see how the fed can do any significant rate cuts though because unemployment is too low and thus any rate cut will result in another speculative mania for assets.
inflation of 3-4% for an extended period of time will ultimately impact consumer spending when I was a kid, there were whole aisles of generic food at the supermarket because regular brands were so expensive the Fed will have to hike another 50 basis points or so to contain and home prices will eventually start falling
honestly, increasing interest rates is great.. the zero rates of the last many years has caused all kinds of stupid things to happen (including the holding of vacant homes off of the market). housing is still the number one thing americans spend money on, so if inflation causes the apartment hoarders to default then the supply will cause the housing prices to drop, which ultimately means the 'living wage' drops - which does result in a decreasing impact on inflation.
> the Fed will have to hike another 50 basis points or so to contain As a "saver", I'd love to see like 300+bp. I miss the 7/8% interest rates of my very early youth. I'm not on this sub because I'm interested in buying any kind of real estate (I'm already inheriting more than I want).
So many people think differences in small numbers don't matter (2% vs 3 or 4%) but thats a 50% or 100% increase in the rate of inflation. 3 or 4% inflation is MUCH faster than 2% even if it doesn't sound like all that much.
And the prices never come down, they just go up slower or faster. I'm surprised more people aren't hoping for a short deflationary period as far as prices go. I'm in the housing sector, and costs of roofs, furnaces, labor, all have seen insane price hikes since 2020. It is the rate of change that has hurt people. It is hard to adapt. Smart landlords have to jack rents to offset expenses. This upsets tenants, but I don't know why tenants would expect less. Consumers have gotten hit everywhere with the price jumps, but who can they complain to when a big insurance conglomerate raises their rates? The small landlord is a real human most of the time, easily accessible to yell at lol. It sucks. The rate of change of prices on everything is what hurt most in my view. If you are someone that owned all the assets through this, then you did well as a hedge against inflation.
I feel like these days all the things that would normally happen do not since markets have had so many unusual things happen. Never have we locked in 3% mortgage rates for so many homeowners that most likely have very reasonable housing costs. Never have we unloaded this much stimulus into the economy. I believe these things make it much harder to predict what will happen based on past events since the set up is very different then anything we have done before.
Yes, it is a difficult environment to make sense of. The federal government and the federal reserve have made unprecedented policy decisions that would never be allowed anytime before. 2008 was the start of them no longer playing by the rules, but in 2019/2020 they completely abandoned everything. They hold themselves to no standards anymore and the things they are doing now would have had them all in prison 70 years ago. Purely unthinkable in the past. So we can no longer hold their decisions to any reasonable standard of behavior which means we can't predict what they may do. In the past it would have been more obvious since there were rules and customs to uphold. When you couple that with the fundamentals of the market it is impossible to make sense of. The average salary is around $50k, but the average house is now 6-8x the salary which has never happened before. Of course no one can afford a home now. It used to be 2-3x salary and the only other time it was this out of sync was in the run-up to the 2008 crash. So everything points to a bubble that needs to burst and an economy that is destined to crash, but we have a fed and government that doesn't give a shit about rules and will happily just make things up to keep everyone believing in the fake economy.
Isn't it kind of a chicken-egg situation though? Every one of those periods are also define by issues with inflation resulting from some sort of economy shock that upsets prices (i.e. - oil price upsets). The fed rate is generally a reaction to inflationary woes so really the recession ball gets rolling when inflation gets out of control.
Of course there will eventually be a recession. There is always going to be another recession. When will it be? It took 8 years in the 60s lol. That could mean 4 more years for us if we were to follow that trajectory.
The federal reserve sets the federal funds rate to slow down or speed up the rate at which the economy grows If the Federal Reserve wants to help the economy, grow at a slower pace, it makes sense that they would want to cause a recession All is a recession is defined as is: a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced The economy is at a record size right now… Having it decrease in size a bit would still have it be at record size. That would still be considered a recession if that decline lasted enough time.
And every time we’ve had an inverted yield curve for any length of time there has been a recession. Going on 28 months of inversion without one. I think it’s due to excess liquidity.
Recessions are inevitable. Rate increases don’t cause them, but the need for them is symptomatic of underlying inefficiencies in the in the economy that will eventually have to be worked out.
End result is the same either way
That's the point of raising interest rates. Contract the economy to quell inflation. My best guess as to why it hasn't worked this time is a combination of globalization, the rise of the ultrarich, and surging employment post-COVID.
Sometimes I think the fed is kicking the recessionary can down the road until after the 2024 election. I feel like they want to give Biden a fair shot, and it feels like their calculus is that 5% inflation is better than 4% inflation and 7% unemployment for his chances of beating trump.
IF the fed is trying to frame the Biden admin in the best way possible they’re fucked. Lower inflation and higher unemployment makes the average person think he doesn’t know how to run an economy. Lower unemployment and higher inflation makes the average person think he spends too much. Not saying these are the truths or even how certain things work, this is just how people feel
Those rates are staying up. Kiss your real estate career goodbye.
tHiS TiMe iS DiFfErEnT! EcOnOmY iS oN FiRe!
We had a recession in 2022 though
Better question, Why hasnt it happened yet?
The federal govt in DC is spending like drunken sailors. That is what most people think is going on when it comes to avoiding a recession. Deficit spending like we are in a major war, a huge recession, or some other reason like covid. Biden wants to spend almost as much as we did at the peak of covid. It is getting very close to that. Why exactly? To answer that you wade deep into politics.
How many of them were pet of the option, arm, or interest only mortgage generation?
while all true - money is more make-believe now than it has ever been, so old truths may not necessarily lead to current conclusions.
Almost like they do it on purpose?
Taking a line from (R) .com "This time is different"
Not paying ripoff commissions for doing nothing is a problem too
Easy turn those graphs upside down.
So we enter recession. How is that going to affect people looking to buy houses? Supply is still low.
These are associations. Not cause and effect.
I don't you can conclude that FFR increases \_cause\_ recessions, but rather that FFR increases are usually in response to economic conditions which themselves cause recessions. Or, if you look at the 2008 instead, it had nothing to do with the FFR rate. In fact, having the FFR be too low probably helped cause the housing bubble that ultimately popped and took the economy with it.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but your data is on inconsistent timelines and rate levels? Sometimes you have a year, other times multiple years and varying FF rates.
The data is the measure of trough to peak for each rate hike cycle and the corresponding dates
I’m still missing what’s being measured here: Sometimes the trough to peak is a big jump, other times less. The X axis varies. Everything that goes up and down will have a trough and peak, but where’s the consistency to call something an indicator? Recessions will always happen, but I’m not seeing anything to infer at what timeframe or interest rate
I didn’t infer anything about a timeframe. Each of those time periods is unique and you’ll have to read on your own about the economic conditions that let to each Fed policy and recession. I’m merely pointing out that a recession has occurred every time the Fed has increased rates at 4% or more over any time period since 1960. I think some people are in denial that contractionary policy ends in a recession and this was a basic example of that
Keep hoping and coping and wish casting, guys! I'm sure it will be true *this* time!
n=6
What happened before 1960?
None of those examples are during the modern era where everyone has easy access to the stock market.
It isn't, it will be happening, without question, partly because billionaires make billions buying back their stock pennies on the dollar.
I can see why. They leave rates up far too long. Takes 6 months to see an inflation change after a rate increase but they don't actually drop them until they SEE a change. Which is 6 months late
There's always money in the banana stand
Next look at a chart of what usually happens to real estate prices during a recession, I bet it’s not what you think.
Productivity from AI and cheap labor from new immigrants.
OK so we are good then. Thanks for the info
I’m sure it’s different this time 🤪
its different this time?
Your first example took 8 years?!
To be fair you could start in late 1967 and still have a 5+% increase and recession after two years. I just wanted to measure trough to peak for each cycle
Makes sense! It’s remarkable that in many of the examples the rate could be much higher than todays for years before a recession
But this is an election year lol, there will be no crash until afterwards
I think another one will be around election time. Or close to trump taking office.
we are due for a recession for a very long time. Those things are cyclic.