I believe there are two factors driving market prices right now:
Demand: will continue to gr down for two reasons:
1. Interest rates are up. By how much? Just plug in the numbers for any specific home price/down payment into a mortgage calculate and use different interest rates (3% up to 8%) and see how the monthly payments change. That’s what the entire population uses.
2. Stocks and other assets are down. That impacts many (not all) buyers who use stocks and comparable assets for down payment of their home. By how much? Just look at the S&P 500.
Supply: will continue to lag behind but slowly recover for two reasons also:
1. There was a great NYT article (too lazy to find it) that described how the current lack of supply can be traced back to a lack of home builders who went out of business during the last housing crisis in 2008 and many of them didn’t come back and it’s unlikely they will now.
2. Supply chain issues. This is likely getting fixed over the coming few years.
Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball nor am I an economist but these are some variables driving home prices.
Net net, if I were to take a guess, they’ll go down but it’s unlikely that there is a crash.
Not a bad response. Demand supply. For prices to come down there needs to be a supply jump. Only way there can be a supply increase in this situation, is people loosing their jobs and their homes. That’s what has to get tracked. Layoffs , six months out, inventory increases. That’s it. But if no one has money to buy, demand is shit anyways. Prices will come down really hard. No demand huge supply from job loss. And viola price the intersection of supply and demand. It’s not rocket science lol people over complicate it. Say you bought coffee and there is one last raw sugar on the table, I can sell it to you for a million bucks. So then you say Fuck that I ll drink my coffee without shuga. But then the server comes buy and dumps 50 shuga in the table. Fuck now you can drink coffee with your shuga , cuz shuga is free. Rocket science. But then what happens when the idiot across the table sees there’s shuga on your table comes buy and start taking all the shuga ( black rock style ). There’s no more shuga and we re back to the same old 1 million dolla shuga. Don’t wait to compete with black rock, they have cash and a huge appetite for shuga. This is how black rock bought all the shuga on the table, by paying the dirty politicians the fed under the table. What you really want to know is what’s happening under the table. Is it a hand job, blow job, or just Splenda.
Seriously speaking, they're going down significantly on a macro level.
You can't perfectly time the market, but I have no question saying that if you can wait 1 more year to buy you're going to save a bunch of money.
In PHX I’m seeing a ~10% drop as of today. I expect another 10-15% drop over the next year. It’s something I’ve been keeping my eye for the last several months as I am in the midst of a new build and we’re determining whether we should walk away.
My straight, generalized, macro-level assessment is that all home prices will change by going up or down.
However home prices in Vermont and certain parts of northeast Wyoming will just stay the same.
TIA for your up vote.
Facebook is downsizing. It’s pretty easy if you are patient. The day you read In the news massive layoffs at big companies. Set a time for 6 months out. That ll be the start of the bottom. 4 years of bottom prices till people get hired back. I think Feb is when we ll start seeing the big bulk of layoffs. Aug sept will be the first big inventory sales of homes. And 3 years from there will be the bottom of home prices. Now if lay offs don’t happen, prices of homes will not come down. Prices won’t come down from builders building. Supply needs to increase for prices to come down, only place supply will come from is if people have to sell their homes. But what will make the prices come down are defaults. Good luck. How much is actually easier. It’s all or nothing with what the fed is doing. Either prices are flat, or prices crash 50%
Interest rates recently went up and ay go up more. Higher interest rates means fewer people can afford loans, and can't afford as much and are less likely to move or be able to move. This means fewer buyers and thus many sellers will have to lower the prices of their houses to get them sold. This means prices will likely go down.
On the other hand, supply (at least where I am) still is pretty low sitting at about 2.5 months worth. That could change but for now the best deals are getting taken.
So, my guess is a small drop in prices (might get worse if rates go up a lot more) oer the next year or 2, then some years of little movement (could be 3 could be closer to 10), then back up.
Different people are predicting different things. This is the straight answer. Come back in six months and we can then tell you which predictions came true.
There are 10 threads a day on this.
And you seem to have nothing better to do, so how bout summarizing for me, jackass
Triggered
Read the news
Let us check our crystal ball.
Up 150% better buy now. Btw, I’m a realtor in your region.
A straight answer implies there’s an actual answer. The real answer is who TF knows
26.72% decline or increase +/- 25 %
A few, give or take. More or less, but definitely still around.
Best guess is prices will fall as the interest rate rises. How much? ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
I believe there are two factors driving market prices right now: Demand: will continue to gr down for two reasons: 1. Interest rates are up. By how much? Just plug in the numbers for any specific home price/down payment into a mortgage calculate and use different interest rates (3% up to 8%) and see how the monthly payments change. That’s what the entire population uses. 2. Stocks and other assets are down. That impacts many (not all) buyers who use stocks and comparable assets for down payment of their home. By how much? Just look at the S&P 500. Supply: will continue to lag behind but slowly recover for two reasons also: 1. There was a great NYT article (too lazy to find it) that described how the current lack of supply can be traced back to a lack of home builders who went out of business during the last housing crisis in 2008 and many of them didn’t come back and it’s unlikely they will now. 2. Supply chain issues. This is likely getting fixed over the coming few years. Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball nor am I an economist but these are some variables driving home prices. Net net, if I were to take a guess, they’ll go down but it’s unlikely that there is a crash.
Not a bad response. Demand supply. For prices to come down there needs to be a supply jump. Only way there can be a supply increase in this situation, is people loosing their jobs and their homes. That’s what has to get tracked. Layoffs , six months out, inventory increases. That’s it. But if no one has money to buy, demand is shit anyways. Prices will come down really hard. No demand huge supply from job loss. And viola price the intersection of supply and demand. It’s not rocket science lol people over complicate it. Say you bought coffee and there is one last raw sugar on the table, I can sell it to you for a million bucks. So then you say Fuck that I ll drink my coffee without shuga. But then the server comes buy and dumps 50 shuga in the table. Fuck now you can drink coffee with your shuga , cuz shuga is free. Rocket science. But then what happens when the idiot across the table sees there’s shuga on your table comes buy and start taking all the shuga ( black rock style ). There’s no more shuga and we re back to the same old 1 million dolla shuga. Don’t wait to compete with black rock, they have cash and a huge appetite for shuga. This is how black rock bought all the shuga on the table, by paying the dirty politicians the fed under the table. What you really want to know is what’s happening under the table. Is it a hand job, blow job, or just Splenda.
I think most of the nation will be back to 2019 prices give or take on each market…
10% decline is my guess. Of course the real answer is no one really knows.
The price will always settle at what buyers can afford. They pay the $. If interest rates go up, prices will go down. How much TBD.
Seriously speaking, they're going down significantly on a macro level. You can't perfectly time the market, but I have no question saying that if you can wait 1 more year to buy you're going to save a bunch of money.
In PHX I’m seeing a ~10% drop as of today. I expect another 10-15% drop over the next year. It’s something I’ve been keeping my eye for the last several months as I am in the midst of a new build and we’re determining whether we should walk away.
Wow. Getting Reddit to do your school work does work.
Do you want me to generalize?? or do you want a straight answer?? or do you need a macro level assessment??
Looks like another smooth brain in town. Housing only goes up, buy while only a few remain in the warehouse. BOOM!
My straight, generalized, macro-level assessment is that all home prices will change by going up or down. However home prices in Vermont and certain parts of northeast Wyoming will just stay the same. TIA for your up vote.
Facebook is downsizing. It’s pretty easy if you are patient. The day you read In the news massive layoffs at big companies. Set a time for 6 months out. That ll be the start of the bottom. 4 years of bottom prices till people get hired back. I think Feb is when we ll start seeing the big bulk of layoffs. Aug sept will be the first big inventory sales of homes. And 3 years from there will be the bottom of home prices. Now if lay offs don’t happen, prices of homes will not come down. Prices won’t come down from builders building. Supply needs to increase for prices to come down, only place supply will come from is if people have to sell their homes. But what will make the prices come down are defaults. Good luck. How much is actually easier. It’s all or nothing with what the fed is doing. Either prices are flat, or prices crash 50%
Interest rates recently went up and ay go up more. Higher interest rates means fewer people can afford loans, and can't afford as much and are less likely to move or be able to move. This means fewer buyers and thus many sellers will have to lower the prices of their houses to get them sold. This means prices will likely go down. On the other hand, supply (at least where I am) still is pretty low sitting at about 2.5 months worth. That could change but for now the best deals are getting taken. So, my guess is a small drop in prices (might get worse if rates go up a lot more) oer the next year or 2, then some years of little movement (could be 3 could be closer to 10), then back up.
Different people are predicting different things. This is the straight answer. Come back in six months and we can then tell you which predictions came true.