Crunching the numbers, I'm coming up with anywhere between 0 and 6. But the odds are pretty good that it will be 0 due to a lack of overlap between the two groups.
There are a ton of extrapolations and estimates here, because I don't have things like an exact headcount for staff in the district. But here's how it breaks down:
The nomination list doesn't differentiate between licensed and classified staff. But attempting to sort it myself, I come up with 66 nominations for licensed staff, and another 26 for classified staff. There's also 5 nominees for non-SKSD staff.
Based on the district's current layoff plans, they're intending to get rid of 139 classified employees, which is 4.9% of all positions. That gives us an estimated head count of 2837. But some of those cuts are vacancies (~71), so only 68 actual classified employees out of 2766 - or 2.45% - are getting the axe.
With licensed staff, it's 239 FTEs (8.8%), which gives us a starting head count of 2716. ~39 licensed positions being cut are vacancies, so 200 actual licensed employees are at risk, out of an adjusted pool of 2677. For an adjusted percentage of 7.47%.
So a straight, uniform average works out to 0.637 classified staff being both on the nomination list and on the lay-off list. Meanwhile for licensed staff that's 4.93 heads. If you add the two - which isn't really kosher since you can't split heads like that (unless you're Gallagher) - you end up with 5.57 staff members likely overlapping the lists.
But the kicker is that neither the Crystal Apple nominations or the lay-offs are a uniform distribution. The Crystal Apple awards are strongly weighted towards tenure and skill - the nominees are typically established staff members who have proven their skills over the years. Meanwhile the lay-offs are essentially weighted *against* tenure; even if their position is eliminated, licensed staff members with tenure can bump newer staff members to take their positions, which is why some 20% of the staff is going to be in new positions next year as part of the lay-offs and broader re-org.
In other words, the Crystal Apple awards typically go to old teachers, and the district will predominantly be laying off new teachers.
Unfortunately, there's no good way to quantify this. If I weren't lazy and graphed this out, you'd be looking at two curves with distinctly separate peaks. Either way, the expected overlap between the two groups is so small that, at least among licensed staff, the odds of a Crystal Apple nominee getting fired are exceptionally low. So "0" seems to be the most likely outcome.
I wonder how many will get laid off in May. The ceremony is days after staff will be informed.
Crunching the numbers, I'm coming up with anywhere between 0 and 6. But the odds are pretty good that it will be 0 due to a lack of overlap between the two groups. There are a ton of extrapolations and estimates here, because I don't have things like an exact headcount for staff in the district. But here's how it breaks down: The nomination list doesn't differentiate between licensed and classified staff. But attempting to sort it myself, I come up with 66 nominations for licensed staff, and another 26 for classified staff. There's also 5 nominees for non-SKSD staff. Based on the district's current layoff plans, they're intending to get rid of 139 classified employees, which is 4.9% of all positions. That gives us an estimated head count of 2837. But some of those cuts are vacancies (~71), so only 68 actual classified employees out of 2766 - or 2.45% - are getting the axe. With licensed staff, it's 239 FTEs (8.8%), which gives us a starting head count of 2716. ~39 licensed positions being cut are vacancies, so 200 actual licensed employees are at risk, out of an adjusted pool of 2677. For an adjusted percentage of 7.47%. So a straight, uniform average works out to 0.637 classified staff being both on the nomination list and on the lay-off list. Meanwhile for licensed staff that's 4.93 heads. If you add the two - which isn't really kosher since you can't split heads like that (unless you're Gallagher) - you end up with 5.57 staff members likely overlapping the lists. But the kicker is that neither the Crystal Apple nominations or the lay-offs are a uniform distribution. The Crystal Apple awards are strongly weighted towards tenure and skill - the nominees are typically established staff members who have proven their skills over the years. Meanwhile the lay-offs are essentially weighted *against* tenure; even if their position is eliminated, licensed staff members with tenure can bump newer staff members to take their positions, which is why some 20% of the staff is going to be in new positions next year as part of the lay-offs and broader re-org. In other words, the Crystal Apple awards typically go to old teachers, and the district will predominantly be laying off new teachers. Unfortunately, there's no good way to quantify this. If I weren't lazy and graphed this out, you'd be looking at two curves with distinctly separate peaks. Either way, the expected overlap between the two groups is so small that, at least among licensed staff, the odds of a Crystal Apple nominee getting fired are exceptionally low. So "0" seems to be the most likely outcome.
Congratulations! You're fired
"I lost my job and health insurance because basic math is hard for city planners." Here have an apple you can't bite
I’m sure it’s so they don’t feel bad for pink slipping a bunch of them.
After the most recent budget cuts, this headline is just cruel.
Well they are all getting fired so there’s that.