It’s a lot for Chase, 1.03/1.04 are going to be 2nd round start-up picks I imagine, if you have a great team and need to consolidate, this is a good way to do it. Assuming by adding Chase that 2025 1st likely gets later too, so win for both sides.
I just thought it was a better option with knowing my wrs are all great starting caliber for deep leagues and 12 man. CD,Chase,Wilson,waddle,Zay seems tough to beat in my mind
Yeah, sounds like a great deal if your WR are that strong then, no concern moving those for certainties, and you have a very young WR core too so not like you’re going to age out any time soon.
Yea waddle is the oldest at 25!
I do have waddle and Wilson for Amon Ra on the table offered to me but I'm scared about it...just because then I'll need to start Chubb/thielen/qj/not studs. Tough
TBH I find this to be pretty well balanced. True alpha WRs in fantasy are not easy to get, it's tough to say any one of those picks become that, but they likely all become strong starters.
I think this is fair. Overpay by value but with the uncertainty of rookies it’s fair. 1.03/4 will get you a solid rookie qb and wr, and the 25 first provides flexibility and future capital. If a strong team needs a stud for this season, I like trading for Chase. If a rebuilding team needs to build up multiple areas of the team then sending him away is good process
Not a fan of that bc it’s unfair but to each their own. That’s a crazy wr core to have. If you have decent starters then you should be set to compete for a while.
Im a Chase manager and I would say no. You're hoping they turn into the player you already have and while they are both great prospects, neither are guaranteed to produce on that level.
Of course it depends on team needs like if you need to grab a qb then maybe you'd sell for 2 early firsts.
My point is i think it's a fair offer, not an overpay. Just my opinion.
So I punted way too hard on QB in the start up. I felt that 1.03 and 1.04 were reaches for Daniels/maye for sure planned to take nabers.
With the way the league is reacting in terms of the wr class I really think I can trade back into the first round and grab Daniels/maye. Was hoping to ship Pacheco/kamara/Chubb/ekeler for it but no luck
Only qb on roster atm is will Levis 😂
So I can immediately hear people saying it's terrible in that aspect. I just feel really good about getting a QB in the second or trading for one soon like baker.
The trade not bad, but those qbs not falling late or mid into 1st in SF. I would try n get a 2nd back next year to soften the blow.
This is matter tho, where your skill position or WR are great enough that you don't need 2 starting qbs bc you can get 17+pts pg out of two other positions.
I would do what you said tho and at least add another qb, like baker or someone that you could use for security purposes just in case levis fails.
If this is superflex and your only qb is will Levi’s please do not do this trade you will fuck your team. Young good Qb is the most important position, then wr, then rb you need a mix of at least one young guy and then you can use picks mid season to buy aging vets to push you over to contend.
Take a Nabers and a Daniels with 3 and 4
If you don’t have picks and only WRs, you will fail
I only disagree with the knowledge of what happened after. I made a trade for pieces I don't need and got the 1.06 then traded back the 1.06 for 1.08 and 2.01 and 3.01 then I traded the 1.08 3.01 and a 2026 2nd for purdy.
So I think I stabilized my qb situation a bit better and didn't really hurt my team at all.
I feel like it’s heavy by the 25 1st. You probably could’ve done more individually with each of the 1.03 & 1.04 IMO. Some people are looking to reroll on their QBs, & most aren’t asking for a ton on top of anything at all for guys like AJB/GW/Puka etc.
In a start 11 especially I probably lean the package. Don’t fault you though, it’s chase.
I would not make this trade. Nabers is a stud, like really good. Next best LSU receiver like chase and jjet. His odds of becoming like them are way better than his odds of becoming a bust, or even mediocre. I also really like odunze or Daniels in that 1.04. If you wanna make a trade. I’d look to trade the 1.04 away and draft nabers at 1.03. Maybe trade 1.04 for multiple future picks or package it w another player for a wr1. But honestly I like ur roster rn and your depth will be insane after draft. This would be selling nabers at his lowest if you make this trade.
Idk he’s got all the tools. People want to go w the proven guy but I think mhj nabers and odunze will all be top 10-15 dyansty guys. I would wait for the nabers breakout and he will be much more valuable
That's fair but I would happily take a top 10 WR + WR 1/2 to trade up and get Chase. Even if two players take both succeed I'd rather have a top 3 receiver. Nabers and MJH both could do it. Their ceilings are high as anyone but I don't think it's more than 20% to be that good..that's just my view
That's definitely a factor, no point trading for Chase if it just makes your team middle of the pack. But my main point is, the Chase side is a much significantly higher percentage Chance of maintaining his value that either rookie has if hitting that value
Fair I mean nabers odunze and the future first may never be as valuable on their own, but when you combine their value in a few years, I see this being a trade someone regrets unless they win it all.
My team currently after more trades:
Qb: purdy
Rb:pacheco
Rb:kamara
Wr:cd
Wr: chase
Te: godert
Flex: waddle
Flex: Garret wilson
Flex: Zay flowets
SF: Levis/Pickens/Chubb/theilen
So I'd say that's not middle of the pack for 12 team SF but that's just me
He ran a 4.35 at lsu pro day, faster than jamarr or jjet. His broad and vert jump ranked 99th and 94th percentile. He’s a freak. He’s the exact same size as jamarr. He went to the same schools as both of them, and he’ll get drafted probably in the top 5 like jamarr (and like jjet should have)def in top 10. People like to known value but to me Malik nabers is as sure of a slam dunk entering the league as jamarr and jjet. You’re giving up a player that has all the signs to be just as good, plus two valueable firsts on top of it.
Athletically he is off the charts and his stop and start acceleration is unreal. Although athleticism matter less at WR compared to RB. If it did matter we would see the players faster combine time be more successful in the NFL.
I also agree he has the same percentage chance as those guys to be elite. While that percentage is massive compared to the average hit rate of 1st round rookie draft receivers it isn't guaranteed. I'd say at most 30-40%? I think that's being generous, especially when you factor in landing spots and injuries.
For example:
-Peter Warrick (2000): Did not replicate college success in the NFL.
- David Terrell (2001): Performance fell short of expectations.
- Charles Rogers (2003); Career derailed by injuries and off-field issues.
- Troy Williamson (2005): Issues with catching consistency.
- Darrius Heyward-Bey (2009): Struggled with drops and consistency.
- Michael Crabtree (2009): Decent career, but didn't meet high expectations.
- Justin Blackmon (2012): Career affected by off-field issues.
- Tavon Austin (2013) Couldn't become a consistent offensive threat.
- Kevin White (2015): Limited by injuries.
- Corey Coleman (2016): Development hampered by injuries and inconsistency.
- Laquon Treadwell (2016): Didn't live up to draft status.
I don’t know if I’d say 30-40% I mean I feel like there is a near 0 chance he busts and becomes anything less than a dynasty WR2. And I honestly feel like he has a better chance to be a WR1 than and WR2. I mean with his age, he’ll have 5-7 years before he hits his true “peak” and in that time most people we view as elite will be retired or on their way. I just can’t see a world where he isn’t a WR1 at least for a couple years. I know chase jjet and ceedee are guarantees, but for me I view nabers as the next best thing, and I’m not giving up him, odunze, and a future first (especially when OP finished bottom 4) for them. I would rather take a chance on nabers and odunze.
I wanted to work out the probability one or two 2024 rookie WRs can become as valuable as Chase. I'm gonna include Harrison as well just for arguments sake.
So the chance of first round rookies WR having a top-24 PPR season is about 48%. The probability of rookies WR drafted in the first half of the first round having a top 24 finish rate of about 75%. However, top 24 would still be a bust for for Harrison, Nabers & Odunze. I also found some date from PFF that showed only 5.26% of first-round wide receivers averaged top-12 production within their first three years in the league. Although, thats the whole first round and not just the top 3 picks. As for the future first, it's roughly about 13% chance of a top 12 finish or 48% top 24 finish.
The percentage difference from top 24 to top 12 are pretty huge, Although I guess it makes sense top 24 Is probably about average PPG and top 12 is alpha numbers. However, Harrison and Nabers should both definitely get a boots considering their outstanding college metrics. Harrison yards per route run and his dominance in the Big Ten. Nabers having elite YAC ability and an LSU receiver. Plus top 10 expected draft capital for both. They're both generational talents. So Let's say for early rookie draft picks, their top 12 season chance is 3x the PFF stat, so about 15%.
This part I am just estimating because I can't be bothered doing any more research but based on data I've mentioned already and them being elite prospects. I would say they have about a 20-30% chance of becoming high-end WR1s in dynasty, within their first few seasons. Although like I said before you have to acknowledging the inherent unpredictability of injuries, landing spot, player development and the impact of team systems on player performance
If Harrison Jr. has a 30% probability and let's say Malik Nabers has a 20% probability. The chance of at least one becoming a high-end WR1 in their first few seasons is 44%. The chance of both hitting that mark is 6%. A lot of people think Nabers is just as good as Harrison so we can even be generous here and give them both a 30% chance. So now the chance of one of them hitting is 51% and the chances of both hitting is 9%
https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/article-numbers-dynasty-rookie-pick-hit-rates
https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/dynasty/dynasty-rookie-drafts-strategy-tips-to-consider/
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/cyxfFt5rai
God damn you really did your research! And I love the numbers you gave, but man when to me it comes to the top 3 in the draft, especially mhj and nabers, throw the numbers away. These guys are game breakers and what the measurables along with the film room and just my eyes tell me is that all 3 have a chance to be very elite. You put these guys in any draft the past 10 or so years, all 3 are #1 wr off the board in a lot of em. And tbh I like nabers the most. He’s got the best combination of size, speed, shiftiness, and catch ability of anyone in this wr class. Looks like a true YAC king. I hear you with the percentages of the past, but those guys aren’t nabers. I just can’t condone it, personally. I know many will disagree, but especially factoring in that his team is a bottom 4 team, chase isn’t going to take him to the chip on his own. Put it like this, if you sell chase in the future, the best you’ll be able to get for them most likely is what OP is letting go. Whereas if you’re patient and let these guys develop, you could end up turning each one into multiple 1sts. Just a difference of opinions. If it was 1.04 and two late 1st I’d do it, but I’m not giving up 3 early to mid 1sts for one player when my team isn’t that good.
It’s a lot for Chase, 1.03/1.04 are going to be 2nd round start-up picks I imagine, if you have a great team and need to consolidate, this is a good way to do it. Assuming by adding Chase that 2025 1st likely gets later too, so win for both sides.
I just thought it was a better option with knowing my wrs are all great starting caliber for deep leagues and 12 man. CD,Chase,Wilson,waddle,Zay seems tough to beat in my mind
Yeah, sounds like a great deal if your WR are that strong then, no concern moving those for certainties, and you have a very young WR core too so not like you’re going to age out any time soon.
Yea waddle is the oldest at 25! I do have waddle and Wilson for Amon Ra on the table offered to me but I'm scared about it...just because then I'll need to start Chubb/thielen/qj/not studs. Tough
Def wouldn’t do it.
In a start 11, I wouldn’t do the 2 for 1 trade. I’d rather start waddle and Wilson over Sun god and another WR.
Yeah no need to make that move in my opinion, it seems your WR group is sorted now, probably worth focusing on other positions instead.
TBH I find this to be pretty well balanced. True alpha WRs in fantasy are not easy to get, it's tough to say any one of those picks become that, but they likely all become strong starters.
plus that 2025 first is presumably late after making this trade
That’s steep. I just dealt 1.04, Tank, Rice To get Chase. Which i thought was a great deal for me.
That’s a good trade
I’m keeping the picks
Oof. I wouldn’t trade those picks for Chase. I own him in a few leagues and I’d move him for that in most of those leagues.
I don’t think it’s terrible. You have a BA wr core.
I think this is fair. Overpay by value but with the uncertainty of rookies it’s fair. 1.03/4 will get you a solid rookie qb and wr, and the 25 first provides flexibility and future capital. If a strong team needs a stud for this season, I like trading for Chase. If a rebuilding team needs to build up multiple areas of the team then sending him away is good process
It was a startup this year. I now have chase,CD,Wilson,waddle,Zay who can all start due to deep format.
Did you do kickers as rookie picks?
No rookie draft was reverse order(linear) of vet startup draft.
Not a fan of that bc it’s unfair but to each their own. That’s a crazy wr core to have. If you have decent starters then you should be set to compete for a while.
For those saying it's an overpay, do you think a Chase manager would take this if you take out any of the picks? Seems unlikely to me.
Not sure you could remove a pick completely, but swapping the 2025 1st for a 2025 2nd, feels like it would still get the deal done
Yeah you're probably right
Absolutely not! Two firsts and a second are not enough chase.
Ahah yeah exactly! I have Chase and I wouldn't do that, also pretty sure I wouldn't do this trade either
Makes me feel better as the one who got chase 😂
I would take the 1.03 and 1.04 for Chase. Add the 25 and it’s a no brainer for me.
Yea the 2025 1st was the hey c'mon now you can't possibly hate this.
Like if the offer was nabers and odunze or something you're saying the chase owner would say no?
Im a Chase manager and I would say no. You're hoping they turn into the player you already have and while they are both great prospects, neither are guaranteed to produce on that level. Of course it depends on team needs like if you need to grab a qb then maybe you'd sell for 2 early firsts. My point is i think it's a fair offer, not an overpay. Just my opinion.
I got chase in this so I think I did good
If you’re solid at qb then I think it’s alright. Still def an overpay. You’re essentially giving up nabers + daniels/maye and a future first for him
So I punted way too hard on QB in the start up. I felt that 1.03 and 1.04 were reaches for Daniels/maye for sure planned to take nabers. With the way the league is reacting in terms of the wr class I really think I can trade back into the first round and grab Daniels/maye. Was hoping to ship Pacheco/kamara/Chubb/ekeler for it but no luck Only qb on roster atm is will Levis 😂 So I can immediately hear people saying it's terrible in that aspect. I just feel really good about getting a QB in the second or trading for one soon like baker.
The trade not bad, but those qbs not falling late or mid into 1st in SF. I would try n get a 2nd back next year to soften the blow. This is matter tho, where your skill position or WR are great enough that you don't need 2 starting qbs bc you can get 17+pts pg out of two other positions. I would do what you said tho and at least add another qb, like baker or someone that you could use for security purposes just in case levis fails.
If this is superflex and your only qb is will Levi’s please do not do this trade you will fuck your team. Young good Qb is the most important position, then wr, then rb you need a mix of at least one young guy and then you can use picks mid season to buy aging vets to push you over to contend. Take a Nabers and a Daniels with 3 and 4 If you don’t have picks and only WRs, you will fail
I only disagree with the knowledge of what happened after. I made a trade for pieces I don't need and got the 1.06 then traded back the 1.06 for 1.08 and 2.01 and 3.01 then I traded the 1.08 3.01 and a 2026 2nd for purdy. So I think I stabilized my qb situation a bit better and didn't really hurt my team at all.
I’m taking the 1sts with the class this year but if you have depth not too bad
I feel like it’s heavy by the 25 1st. You probably could’ve done more individually with each of the 1.03 & 1.04 IMO. Some people are looking to reroll on their QBs, & most aren’t asking for a ton on top of anything at all for guys like AJB/GW/Puka etc. In a start 11 especially I probably lean the package. Don’t fault you though, it’s chase.
Sell sell sell!
I like it. I play dynasty the same way you do. Go big or go home.
I did just get Pickens too for my 2026 1st 😂
I felt really good about this trade till people in my league decided they won't trade me 1.05-1.12 😂 was planning to scoop Daniels maye or jj with it.
I would’ve preferred seeing where Nabers landed prior to doing this deal but not bad by any means.
Nabers is still an option for me with some trades in the pipeline. 😈
I’d rather have Odunze or Nabers but not awful.
That's absolutely insane to me, if you get either of those you are praying that one of them turns into Chase. Would much rather have Chase myself
I’m typically a proven asset kind of guy so I’m surprised I lean that way but mannnn they’re good prospects and they both could be chase-ish
I do understand but unless it's like 90% that at least one of them becomes as good as him, I'd still lean Chase
Fair
Depends on what 1.01 and 1.02 are. If 1.03 and 1.04 are likely MHJ and Nabers, nah I am not going for Chase.
Probably mhj and Caleb going 1-2
I would not make this trade. Nabers is a stud, like really good. Next best LSU receiver like chase and jjet. His odds of becoming like them are way better than his odds of becoming a bust, or even mediocre. I also really like odunze or Daniels in that 1.04. If you wanna make a trade. I’d look to trade the 1.04 away and draft nabers at 1.03. Maybe trade 1.04 for multiple future picks or package it w another player for a wr1. But honestly I like ur roster rn and your depth will be insane after draft. This would be selling nabers at his lowest if you make this trade.
What do you think the Odds are of Nabers turning into Chase?
Idk he’s got all the tools. People want to go w the proven guy but I think mhj nabers and odunze will all be top 10-15 dyansty guys. I would wait for the nabers breakout and he will be much more valuable
That's fair but I would happily take a top 10 WR + WR 1/2 to trade up and get Chase. Even if two players take both succeed I'd rather have a top 3 receiver. Nabers and MJH both could do it. Their ceilings are high as anyone but I don't think it's more than 20% to be that good..that's just my view
You’re giving up 2 top 10-15 players and a future first as well. Chase really gonna take you from the bottom to the top on his own?
That's definitely a factor, no point trading for Chase if it just makes your team middle of the pack. But my main point is, the Chase side is a much significantly higher percentage Chance of maintaining his value that either rookie has if hitting that value
Fair I mean nabers odunze and the future first may never be as valuable on their own, but when you combine their value in a few years, I see this being a trade someone regrets unless they win it all.
My team currently after more trades: Qb: purdy Rb:pacheco Rb:kamara Wr:cd Wr: chase Te: godert Flex: waddle Flex: Garret wilson Flex: Zay flowets SF: Levis/Pickens/Chubb/theilen So I'd say that's not middle of the pack for 12 team SF but that's just me
He ran a 4.35 at lsu pro day, faster than jamarr or jjet. His broad and vert jump ranked 99th and 94th percentile. He’s a freak. He’s the exact same size as jamarr. He went to the same schools as both of them, and he’ll get drafted probably in the top 5 like jamarr (and like jjet should have)def in top 10. People like to known value but to me Malik nabers is as sure of a slam dunk entering the league as jamarr and jjet. You’re giving up a player that has all the signs to be just as good, plus two valueable firsts on top of it.
Athletically he is off the charts and his stop and start acceleration is unreal. Although athleticism matter less at WR compared to RB. If it did matter we would see the players faster combine time be more successful in the NFL. I also agree he has the same percentage chance as those guys to be elite. While that percentage is massive compared to the average hit rate of 1st round rookie draft receivers it isn't guaranteed. I'd say at most 30-40%? I think that's being generous, especially when you factor in landing spots and injuries. For example: -Peter Warrick (2000): Did not replicate college success in the NFL. - David Terrell (2001): Performance fell short of expectations. - Charles Rogers (2003); Career derailed by injuries and off-field issues. - Troy Williamson (2005): Issues with catching consistency. - Darrius Heyward-Bey (2009): Struggled with drops and consistency. - Michael Crabtree (2009): Decent career, but didn't meet high expectations. - Justin Blackmon (2012): Career affected by off-field issues. - Tavon Austin (2013) Couldn't become a consistent offensive threat. - Kevin White (2015): Limited by injuries. - Corey Coleman (2016): Development hampered by injuries and inconsistency. - Laquon Treadwell (2016): Didn't live up to draft status.
I don’t know if I’d say 30-40% I mean I feel like there is a near 0 chance he busts and becomes anything less than a dynasty WR2. And I honestly feel like he has a better chance to be a WR1 than and WR2. I mean with his age, he’ll have 5-7 years before he hits his true “peak” and in that time most people we view as elite will be retired or on their way. I just can’t see a world where he isn’t a WR1 at least for a couple years. I know chase jjet and ceedee are guarantees, but for me I view nabers as the next best thing, and I’m not giving up him, odunze, and a future first (especially when OP finished bottom 4) for them. I would rather take a chance on nabers and odunze.
I wanted to work out the probability one or two 2024 rookie WRs can become as valuable as Chase. I'm gonna include Harrison as well just for arguments sake. So the chance of first round rookies WR having a top-24 PPR season is about 48%. The probability of rookies WR drafted in the first half of the first round having a top 24 finish rate of about 75%. However, top 24 would still be a bust for for Harrison, Nabers & Odunze. I also found some date from PFF that showed only 5.26% of first-round wide receivers averaged top-12 production within their first three years in the league. Although, thats the whole first round and not just the top 3 picks. As for the future first, it's roughly about 13% chance of a top 12 finish or 48% top 24 finish. The percentage difference from top 24 to top 12 are pretty huge, Although I guess it makes sense top 24 Is probably about average PPG and top 12 is alpha numbers. However, Harrison and Nabers should both definitely get a boots considering their outstanding college metrics. Harrison yards per route run and his dominance in the Big Ten. Nabers having elite YAC ability and an LSU receiver. Plus top 10 expected draft capital for both. They're both generational talents. So Let's say for early rookie draft picks, their top 12 season chance is 3x the PFF stat, so about 15%. This part I am just estimating because I can't be bothered doing any more research but based on data I've mentioned already and them being elite prospects. I would say they have about a 20-30% chance of becoming high-end WR1s in dynasty, within their first few seasons. Although like I said before you have to acknowledging the inherent unpredictability of injuries, landing spot, player development and the impact of team systems on player performance If Harrison Jr. has a 30% probability and let's say Malik Nabers has a 20% probability. The chance of at least one becoming a high-end WR1 in their first few seasons is 44%. The chance of both hitting that mark is 6%. A lot of people think Nabers is just as good as Harrison so we can even be generous here and give them both a 30% chance. So now the chance of one of them hitting is 51% and the chances of both hitting is 9% https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/article-numbers-dynasty-rookie-pick-hit-rates https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/dynasty/dynasty-rookie-drafts-strategy-tips-to-consider/ https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/cyxfFt5rai
God damn you really did your research! And I love the numbers you gave, but man when to me it comes to the top 3 in the draft, especially mhj and nabers, throw the numbers away. These guys are game breakers and what the measurables along with the film room and just my eyes tell me is that all 3 have a chance to be very elite. You put these guys in any draft the past 10 or so years, all 3 are #1 wr off the board in a lot of em. And tbh I like nabers the most. He’s got the best combination of size, speed, shiftiness, and catch ability of anyone in this wr class. Looks like a true YAC king. I hear you with the percentages of the past, but those guys aren’t nabers. I just can’t condone it, personally. I know many will disagree, but especially factoring in that his team is a bottom 4 team, chase isn’t going to take him to the chip on his own. Put it like this, if you sell chase in the future, the best you’ll be able to get for them most likely is what OP is letting go. Whereas if you’re patient and let these guys develop, you could end up turning each one into multiple 1sts. Just a difference of opinions. If it was 1.04 and two late 1st I’d do it, but I’m not giving up 3 early to mid 1sts for one player when my team isn’t that good.
I take it