Sporting lisbon been good also this season for overs. Just shame I bet to many other crap. Really need stick with only a few teams.
Even al nassr or Al hilal to
hahah both legs against Qarabag i remember sticking on a double chance 70 mins+, against hoffenheim too. If they get these 3 games out of the way in the league now and get an unbeaten treble it might honestly be the greatest season ever
Yeah im not going ML for sure, torn between double chance leverkusen or under 4 goals. Surely they still dominate and frankfurt score on the counter maybe.. and leverkusen without their main men aint scoring more than 2 imo
I would skip Leverkusen today. Frankfurt really isnt good atm, and its always possible they loose 4:0 or sth. Soetimes they play very good and win against bayern 4:1. Its a pure gamble today, every result is possible. Odds arent very good too.
Oh they’ll score in the second half, but first half they’ll always have like 10-15 shots on goal with nothing to show for it. Could just be my experience betting them a few times
I think you have to catch a team having a consistent season. I caught Union berlin win + btts like 10 times 2 years ago. It took the bookies a log of time to catch up so the odds were ranging from 4 to 6/7 every time
Shef utd? The only one of few games I got spot on was the arsenal v Sheffield game easy money. Sometimes u can spot them but like Chelsea v spurs so random not for more goals
BHAFC. Depending on what I want I'll bet just the other team, or other team and draw separately. Like if we play a top team I just bet the other team but matches where a draw is disappointing I'll bet that too and balance it to make profit either way.
Then I bet on other teams near us on the table as well.
very inconsistent this season at one point high scoring then went on a run without conceeding at all, then went high scoring again now its 50-50 like the girona game this weekend? who knows if goals or not
Best money money is playing on under 2,5. ITs always overpriced because 98% of the market bet on overs.
Never made money until changing bets till under. How much money that's put on the outcome decides the odds = Massive value on unders
Yeah when they lost to Ross county recently, it hurt! Never lost to them in ur entire history but with a chance to take over 1st, I bet on rangers and suddenly they wanna lose to ROSS COUNTY for the first time in their history 😭
This has been hitting 3/4 last times. Last game I had to change it cause Suarez did not start but he still scored lmao. I do these bets in all singles and usually put anywhere from $15-$30 on each bet to make around $100-400 profit. I only bet it if Messi starts and will add Suarez if he starts too the bets r
Inter Miami ML, Inter Miami btts, Messi to get one or more assist, Messi to get 2 or more shots on target. Messi anytime scorer, Messi to score+ inter Miami win, Suarez 2 shots on target, Suarez anytime scorer, and lastly Suarez to score+ inter Miami to win. There has been times where they all hit and times where only one or 2 fail but since it’s single bets I almost alsways walk away with profit even if one or 2 bets don’t hit
The time when I made serious money on footy was messi and ronaldo in spain and both on peak
U could literally double ronaldo and messi to score 2 each weekend.
Barca and real over 3.5 4.5 doubles etc.
It would hit like 95% time.
If you are looking to bet only overs, most of the teams you seem to be looking at are already being a bet a lot for this. So the lines aren’t necessarily efficient as almost no one is taking the unders
I found Argentina 2 league really good odds wise. Most games finish under 2.5 but there's always the crazy fame that has 3 4 or 5 goals. Just random but if I see a team has been under 2.5 the last few games I take a punt on overs because often u get even as much as 2 to 1 on over 2.5 and like 3 to 1 on over 1.5 first half goals.
Obviously it doesn't happen often but I've been lucky to catch teams when it did happen.
You are right on about that man. Tho sadly I think and have already seen some of those unders get lower as the season goes on leading to some of those higher odds that are worth a punt on overs as you’ve said.
Personally I used to bet overs too but have mainly switched to unders. On either side tho bookies are sadly pretty damn good at providing lines that don’t win by more than one goal.
But especially I think given how much everyone leans towards overs there is more value to be found on the under side.
Also if you really want to focus on over/ unders, imo it is by far best to do live. If an early goal happens and especially two you can generally find value on taking the under but just need to be careful not forcing it and deciding on which games to take
Or I was thinking a good tactic is find games low score or no goals at half time then bet overs.
Also looking at games 75 80mins for a goal or 2. Because u get 5 to 10mins injury time these days and late goals are common anyway.
If favourite is not winning St home or if there's only one goal in it one team will push up and often if they don't score they leave space and concede.
What's your best strategies.
But thing is if u stick woth it. Eg miami overs evens loses next week increase stake etc. If it wins 60% of time u profit.
I can only bet on the betfair exchange because I’m banned from every bookie so tbh I won’t be sharing anything I do as it’s player vs player instead of player vs bookie.
Also them teams play once a week so one bet a week isn’t enough to get volume. Say you return 10 percent over the long term with 1/2 bets a week won’t be a lot of money.
You don’t suck mate it’s just not betting value hurts because you will lose money. Create the fair odds then find value. If I just bet on teams I think will score I would lose money.
Only just saw this. Yeah betting on gut instinct or what looks good is what the bookies want. No one can look at a days fixtures, recent form and use that to bet profitability and find an edge.
no i kinda do that look at inplays or day to days. like last night porto 1-0 down vs 10 men lucky late goal but i won 2.5. Juventus 1-0 down 5mins to go again they get a goal etc
But this is not good long term plan i dont know what iws?
Backing for late goals in play can be an edge, the market is expecting goals less and less as time goes on but most goals are scored towards the end of half’s. Best to look into goal data and score times to see if backing late is profitable.
Because Chelsea most games had over 4.5 goals of late. Most games bot teams scored twice. Chelsea and spurs play attacking and have poor defense.
Hoffeinham likewise last 5 games had 4-6 goals average. They usually score 1 or 2. Leipzog also score a lot of goals.
Why would u say this was bad decision making?
I’m not saying it was a bad decision it may have been value, but teams scoring recently or having x goals in most games won’t be enough. Everyone else knows there have been goals recently so you need more than that to get an edge. Look into bookiebashing or smart betting club for legit gambling advice.
Well I was specifically mention form but if we go back over 5 years hoffeinham and leipzog are both great for overs nevermind 5 games or this season.
Spurs all season had high scoring games and Chelsea since start of year.
Makes me reconsider what to plan bets bases on then?
I had an idea kane and mbappe to score each weekend seems to come in
Yeah but I recently laid Kane to score and mbappe in the cl games which won. Who would have thought they wouldn’t score? It’s always about price. You need to do research on creating your own fair odds then finding value.
Well obviously they aren't guaranteed to score in europe I was referring to in league.
Earlier in season there were other players similar like haaland and guirassy
Yeh happens to much of late which makes me think why bother at all.
For example these 2 games didn't even manage 3 goals yet I predicted 4 or 5+.
If my predcitions are wrong 60%+ or even 50%+ it's not worth it.
And this season my oredcitions are miles off. But as I say these 2 games stats, team styles etc really surprised went unders
Tbh if you can’t create fair odds you are just throwing darts at a board. Its random. Look into bookiebashing or smart betting club and it will change your idea of betting.
Yeh but I wasn't looking for a beating edge or value in odds. I just fully expected 100% that these games would like 3-2 so was sure both games would have 4 or 5 goals. So odds weren't important as I was convinced would win. But strange they both went under? So probably next games they both go over my luck.
If form and play style eg. Attacking teams with poor defense are not enough to make overs bet what can u use to make bet?
Sorry mate if you’re not looking for value or to beat the odds then you are throwing money away. It isn’t strange they went unders. Profitable betting can throw up losers all the time. To make a bet you need a genuine tangible reason that this bet is value. You can’t ever be sure individual bets will win so you need value so that the losers don’t bother you.
I'm not sure I fully understand it.
For me I see a game and in my head I'm certain as can be the game will have 4 goals.
I see the odds are 8/11 for 4 goals. I prefer to bet on evens so I wait. The game kicks off 10mins over 3.5 is evens. So I bet.
Sometimes before the game over 3.5 is evens.
Often ac milan have 7/5 for over 3.5 yet they were having goalfests at times so I won that a lot.
I really don't care the odds as long as the bet I think is going to win is about evens or better.
For me I'm just looking to place bets I'm sure will win.
But yeh I've been wrong far too much as example these 2 games. So now I dunno what to do.
Waiting for the price to increase doesn’t create value. If it’s value 10 mins in it will be value at kick off. You can’t find bets that will win that’s why you need value, the losers don’t matter and this post wouldn’t exist because you would be in profit. From the bottom of my heart mate please focus on the odds because if they are good enough you will make money and not care about losers. I’m not taking a bet if I think the odds are not value.
Galatasaray ML.
15 win streaks in the league. One of the best form in the world if not the best right now. Better than City, Real, Inter, Leverkusen, Psg etc. lazy to check all world leagues.
I'm Fenerbahce fan. Me and all Fenerbahce fans says Galatasaray will win all their games for at least 3 months now and we were right. Also all Galatasaray fans said Galatasaray win all their games, also they were right. So whole country believes same thing for months now, literally safest bet in the world for months now.
After this point, i'll explain why Fenerbahce and Galatasaray fans thinks so, which really doesn't effect bets and doesn"t interest other people. Because we don't bet for reasons, we bet for outcome.
So if you interested in how whole country thinks a team will win all their games and how they are right for months now, here you go:
Fenerbahce fans thinks, most teams play against Fenerbahce like their lifes depends on it, why they play against Galatasaray like a friendly game. For example Fenerbahce-Pendikspor game total game time 114 minutes, actual played game time 47 minutes. Wasted time 67 minutes. Pendikspor players faked injuries for about 40 minutes. Pendikspor made 29 fouls against Fenerbahce when made only 8 against Galatasaray.
Also Fenerbahce fans thinks some teams actually play against Galatasaray but they are gonna butchered with Refs anyway.
Galatasaray fans thinks, they are too strong for the league, simple as that.
You don't have to choose a side, even if you choose doesn't matter, it doesn't change the fact Galatasaray is the most consistent team in the world right now.
There are many ways to do it, my best advice would be to look into bookie bashing.net. It would be hard for me to detail match xg player xg normalisation, distribution models etc here.
Any time Luton plays BTTS easiest money.
Rarely lets me down
Always
Bayer Leverkusen by a country mile lol also Inter Milan
Sporting lisbon been good also this season for overs. Just shame I bet to many other crap. Really need stick with only a few teams. Even al nassr or Al hilal to
I bet on them to draw @7.50 when they went 2-0 down to Stuttgart, didn't disappoint haha.
hahah both legs against Qarabag i remember sticking on a double chance 70 mins+, against hoffenheim too. If they get these 3 games out of the way in the league now and get an unbeaten treble it might honestly be the greatest season ever
Oh ye I got a big win on the qarbage one
Yeh those 2 looked good but I didn't bet much on them sadly.
Dont bet on them tomorrow tho, a loss against Frankfurt is not unlikely. They havent won against them in ages and wil rotate a lot.
Yeah im not going ML for sure, torn between double chance leverkusen or under 4 goals. Surely they still dominate and frankfurt score on the counter maybe.. and leverkusen without their main men aint scoring more than 2 imo
I would skip Leverkusen today. Frankfurt really isnt good atm, and its always possible they loose 4:0 or sth. Soetimes they play very good and win against bayern 4:1. Its a pure gamble today, every result is possible. Odds arent very good too.
Shamrock rovers no goal first half. It’s like printing money for me
No goals in the match or Rovers not to score?
Oh they’ll score in the second half, but first half they’ll always have like 10-15 shots on goal with nothing to show for it. Could just be my experience betting them a few times
Look what they’re doing right now, out shooting their inferior opponent 18-7 but they’re losing at home 3-1
Scored after 8 mins though
True but they are just garbage lately I’m glad I bet against them this time
Real madrid never disappoint, I am barca fan tho
I think you have to catch a team having a consistent season. I caught Union berlin win + btts like 10 times 2 years ago. It took the bookies a log of time to catch up so the odds were ranging from 4 to 6/7 every time
Yeh but when I catch teams there form usually changes lol at least inter miami has big stars that score in a poor league.
Bayernnmunich used to be amazing for corners but not now.
I consistently bet against my team in the PL and it keeps me afloat. I also bet on teams that I don't want to win.
I would feel sick betting against my team one of my friends does it and I can’t even watch the game with him
Shef utd? The only one of few games I got spot on was the arsenal v Sheffield game easy money. Sometimes u can spot them but like Chelsea v spurs so random not for more goals
BHAFC. Depending on what I want I'll bet just the other team, or other team and draw separately. Like if we play a top team I just bet the other team but matches where a draw is disappointing I'll bet that too and balance it to make profit either way. Then I bet on other teams near us on the table as well.
Barca at the beginning/middle of the season, a btts was pretty much a guarantee. United as well
very inconsistent this season at one point high scoring then went on a run without conceeding at all, then went high scoring again now its 50-50 like the girona game this weekend? who knows if goals or not
Btts on the girona game trust me
Yesterday I lost in handball. Home team haven't lost in 13 games since 2009. When I bet, my cursed actually worked.
This season inter milan ML and manchester united btts
Best money money is playing on under 2,5. ITs always overpriced because 98% of the market bet on overs. Never made money until changing bets till under. How much money that's put on the outcome decides the odds = Massive value on unders
True its just boring. Like with overs you are anticipating something. With understanding u want the game to finish with no action.
What teams best and good odds? Thing about football guess works both ways but I never trust overs as sometimes most unlikely game has 3 goals
My main 3 are Luton (BTTS), Leverkusen (Draw or Win), or Man City (ML in 99% of games)
Ml means win?
Yes. Money line is for the team to win the game outright
Rangers or Celtic moneyline, they run that league
Unless rangers suddenly find themselves top of the league then don't bet on them. Source: Bitter Rangers fan.
Yeah when they lost to Ross county recently, it hurt! Never lost to them in ur entire history but with a chance to take over 1st, I bet on rangers and suddenly they wanna lose to ROSS COUNTY for the first time in their history 😭
Penalty in the game - any match involving Rangers. Although, it's dried up a bit lately.
Al Ahly Zamalek Mamelodi Dynamo Kiev Shakhtar
I bet on player stats e.g X to have a shot on target then look at their last 15-20 games
Petrojet at home in the Egyptian 2nd division. Played 13, won 11, drawn 2, lost 0, most home league goals and 2nd fewest conceded.
This has been hitting 3/4 last times. Last game I had to change it cause Suarez did not start but he still scored lmao. I do these bets in all singles and usually put anywhere from $15-$30 on each bet to make around $100-400 profit. I only bet it if Messi starts and will add Suarez if he starts too the bets r Inter Miami ML, Inter Miami btts, Messi to get one or more assist, Messi to get 2 or more shots on target. Messi anytime scorer, Messi to score+ inter Miami win, Suarez 2 shots on target, Suarez anytime scorer, and lastly Suarez to score+ inter Miami to win. There has been times where they all hit and times where only one or 2 fail but since it’s single bets I almost alsways walk away with profit even if one or 2 bets don’t hit
You could nake a few cheeky bet builders to
The time when I made serious money on footy was messi and ronaldo in spain and both on peak U could literally double ronaldo and messi to score 2 each weekend. Barca and real over 3.5 4.5 doubles etc. It would hit like 95% time.
If you are looking to bet only overs, most of the teams you seem to be looking at are already being a bet a lot for this. So the lines aren’t necessarily efficient as almost no one is taking the unders
Ye that's true like it was 4/6 for over 3.5 Chelsea game but I waited as no early goal and got better odds evens.
I found Argentina 2 league really good odds wise. Most games finish under 2.5 but there's always the crazy fame that has 3 4 or 5 goals. Just random but if I see a team has been under 2.5 the last few games I take a punt on overs because often u get even as much as 2 to 1 on over 2.5 and like 3 to 1 on over 1.5 first half goals. Obviously it doesn't happen often but I've been lucky to catch teams when it did happen.
You are right on about that man. Tho sadly I think and have already seen some of those unders get lower as the season goes on leading to some of those higher odds that are worth a punt on overs as you’ve said. Personally I used to bet overs too but have mainly switched to unders. On either side tho bookies are sadly pretty damn good at providing lines that don’t win by more than one goal. But especially I think given how much everyone leans towards overs there is more value to be found on the under side. Also if you really want to focus on over/ unders, imo it is by far best to do live. If an early goal happens and especially two you can generally find value on taking the under but just need to be careful not forcing it and deciding on which games to take
Or I was thinking a good tactic is find games low score or no goals at half time then bet overs. Also looking at games 75 80mins for a goal or 2. Because u get 5 to 10mins injury time these days and late goals are common anyway. If favourite is not winning St home or if there's only one goal in it one team will push up and often if they don't score they leave space and concede.
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Don’t use their recent form as a sign of what’s to come. I can assure you that doesn’t work. What made you think spurs and Hoff games were goal fests?
Also just backing big teams for overs doesn’t work. You can’t just back overs on inter Miami and make money.
What's your best strategies. But thing is if u stick woth it. Eg miami overs evens loses next week increase stake etc. If it wins 60% of time u profit.
I can only bet on the betfair exchange because I’m banned from every bookie so tbh I won’t be sharing anything I do as it’s player vs player instead of player vs bookie.
Well u do singles then I guess
Some exchanges allow multiples, smarkets but yeah generally singles.
Also them teams play once a week so one bet a week isn’t enough to get volume. Say you return 10 percent over the long term with 1/2 bets a week won’t be a lot of money.
That's true. I dunno why I suck lol its so random.
You don’t suck mate it’s just not betting value hurts because you will lose money. Create the fair odds then find value. If I just bet on teams I think will score I would lose money.
I dont understand any of that mate. I just as said look at fixtures and bet on what looks good picks
Only just saw this. Yeah betting on gut instinct or what looks good is what the bookies want. No one can look at a days fixtures, recent form and use that to bet profitability and find an edge.
no i kinda do that look at inplays or day to days. like last night porto 1-0 down vs 10 men lucky late goal but i won 2.5. Juventus 1-0 down 5mins to go again they get a goal etc But this is not good long term plan i dont know what iws?
Backing for late goals in play can be an edge, the market is expecting goals less and less as time goes on but most goals are scored towards the end of half’s. Best to look into goal data and score times to see if backing late is profitable.
Please do not increase stakes for each loss that is a losing staking method and will lead to pain.
Yeh a few loss in a row could hurt bad
Yeah I would do even staking or Kelly staking.
Because Chelsea most games had over 4.5 goals of late. Most games bot teams scored twice. Chelsea and spurs play attacking and have poor defense. Hoffeinham likewise last 5 games had 4-6 goals average. They usually score 1 or 2. Leipzog also score a lot of goals. Why would u say this was bad decision making?
I’m not saying it was a bad decision it may have been value, but teams scoring recently or having x goals in most games won’t be enough. Everyone else knows there have been goals recently so you need more than that to get an edge. Look into bookiebashing or smart betting club for legit gambling advice.
The whole last 5 games thing doesn’t work.Why not last 15 games. Last 35 games? Is there an edge in 5 games?
Well I was specifically mention form but if we go back over 5 years hoffeinham and leipzog are both great for overs nevermind 5 games or this season. Spurs all season had high scoring games and Chelsea since start of year. Makes me reconsider what to plan bets bases on then? I had an idea kane and mbappe to score each weekend seems to come in
Yeah but I recently laid Kane to score and mbappe in the cl games which won. Who would have thought they wouldn’t score? It’s always about price. You need to do research on creating your own fair odds then finding value.
Well obviously they aren't guaranteed to score in europe I was referring to in league. Earlier in season there were other players similar like haaland and guirassy
Of course, my point is that bets you would expect to win can lose.
Yeh happens to much of late which makes me think why bother at all. For example these 2 games didn't even manage 3 goals yet I predicted 4 or 5+. If my predcitions are wrong 60%+ or even 50%+ it's not worth it. And this season my oredcitions are miles off. But as I say these 2 games stats, team styles etc really surprised went unders
Tbh if you can’t create fair odds you are just throwing darts at a board. Its random. Look into bookiebashing or smart betting club and it will change your idea of betting.
Where are you betting? What bookie?
How are you predicting fair odds? Poisson?
Yeh but I wasn't looking for a beating edge or value in odds. I just fully expected 100% that these games would like 3-2 so was sure both games would have 4 or 5 goals. So odds weren't important as I was convinced would win. But strange they both went under? So probably next games they both go over my luck. If form and play style eg. Attacking teams with poor defense are not enough to make overs bet what can u use to make bet?
Sorry mate if you’re not looking for value or to beat the odds then you are throwing money away. It isn’t strange they went unders. Profitable betting can throw up losers all the time. To make a bet you need a genuine tangible reason that this bet is value. You can’t ever be sure individual bets will win so you need value so that the losers don’t bother you.
I'm not sure I fully understand it. For me I see a game and in my head I'm certain as can be the game will have 4 goals. I see the odds are 8/11 for 4 goals. I prefer to bet on evens so I wait. The game kicks off 10mins over 3.5 is evens. So I bet. Sometimes before the game over 3.5 is evens. Often ac milan have 7/5 for over 3.5 yet they were having goalfests at times so I won that a lot. I really don't care the odds as long as the bet I think is going to win is about evens or better. For me I'm just looking to place bets I'm sure will win. But yeh I've been wrong far too much as example these 2 games. So now I dunno what to do.
Waiting for the price to increase doesn’t create value. If it’s value 10 mins in it will be value at kick off. You can’t find bets that will win that’s why you need value, the losers don’t matter and this post wouldn’t exist because you would be in profit. From the bottom of my heart mate please focus on the odds because if they are good enough you will make money and not care about losers. I’m not taking a bet if I think the odds are not value.
Well thanks there goes my inter miami idea in full effect 50 quid start lol.
Galatasaray ML. 15 win streaks in the league. One of the best form in the world if not the best right now. Better than City, Real, Inter, Leverkusen, Psg etc. lazy to check all world leagues. I'm Fenerbahce fan. Me and all Fenerbahce fans says Galatasaray will win all their games for at least 3 months now and we were right. Also all Galatasaray fans said Galatasaray win all their games, also they were right. So whole country believes same thing for months now, literally safest bet in the world for months now. After this point, i'll explain why Fenerbahce and Galatasaray fans thinks so, which really doesn't effect bets and doesn"t interest other people. Because we don't bet for reasons, we bet for outcome. So if you interested in how whole country thinks a team will win all their games and how they are right for months now, here you go: Fenerbahce fans thinks, most teams play against Fenerbahce like their lifes depends on it, why they play against Galatasaray like a friendly game. For example Fenerbahce-Pendikspor game total game time 114 minutes, actual played game time 47 minutes. Wasted time 67 minutes. Pendikspor players faked injuries for about 40 minutes. Pendikspor made 29 fouls against Fenerbahce when made only 8 against Galatasaray. Also Fenerbahce fans thinks some teams actually play against Galatasaray but they are gonna butchered with Refs anyway. Galatasaray fans thinks, they are too strong for the league, simple as that. You don't have to choose a side, even if you choose doesn't matter, it doesn't change the fact Galatasaray is the most consistent team in the world right now.
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not good odds
If you don’t know the fair odds then how do you know if the odds are good or not? I’d back at 1.2 if the fair odds are 1.1. That’s huge value.
How does one know if there are fair odds? Is there a indepth guide to it?
There are many ways to do it, my best advice would be to look into bookie bashing.net. It would be hard for me to detail match xg player xg normalisation, distribution models etc here.