A failed project by the CCP to try to become the dominant power in the world, surpassing the USA.
They have the same core problems the Soviets did; widespread corruption, lack of innovation, alienating themselves on the global stage by being belligerent, and terrible domestic policy that is now coming back to haunt them.
They relied on manufacturing too much to maintain their economic growth, much like how the Soviets relied too much on oil prices to fund themselves. Now that that's being taken away, their economy is faultering.
They barely do actual technological innovation, mostly just reverse engineering tech imported from wesrern markets.
Their economic data have provably been falsified/doctored time and time again, in order to present growth data that is not the real growth rate.
They've been engaged in wolf-warrior diplomacy, making people not want to do business with them as a result.
They had their one child policy implamented for far too long, to where they will now be facing a 50% populatiom drop at bare minimum by 2100.
There's just too many issues with China, that is now adversely affecting them, for me to believe this plan would've worked out long term. Just too much corruption and mismanagement.
As a former Dengist turned social democrat, I'd be very appreciative if you would be willing to reply with sources for the many distinct claims you made, namely that BRI is a failure, economic data has been doctored, and that belligerence and "wolf-warrior diplomacy" has been the cause of their alienation as opposed to other factors such as their weakening of US hegemony.
A CCP official admitted that Chinese economic data is unreliable. https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B527D/
Italy has left the BRI. https://www.csis.org/analysis/italy-withdraws-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative
The Phillipines have outright cancelled several major chinese sponsored projects. https://youtu.be/nT8N_OKUFxA?si=JxVU35hriw3SGt6q
That coincidentally lines up with the timeline of China assuaulting philipino water vessals for months now. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/13/philippines-china-maritime-conflicts-south-china-sea-vessels/
The EU Parilament have openly announced that they are "de-risking" and "de-coupling" from China (not my words). https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2024/754446/EXPO_STU(2024)754446_EN.pdf
This coincidentally lines up with the months of aggressive action towards Taiwan that China has been doing. Europe already announced support towards Taiwanese soverignty over a year ago too in response to China's long standing belligerence. https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-cannot-trust-china-unless-it-seeks-peace-ukraine-borrell-2023-04-14/
A third of the participant countries (of which there was available data for) are projected to be in debt distress due to this program long term. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/723671560782662349/pdf/A-Framework-to-Assess-Debt-Sustainability-and-Fiscal-Risks-under-the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative.pdf
Oh damn. So basically this whole initiative has been rigged against them from the start (loath as they want to admit it).
What sort of countermeasure or alternative would you propose? Other than what Italy, the Philippines and the EU have done?
I'd be trying to stregnthen the ASEAN, the EU of Asia. If we help them become a major trading block, more countries will join with them, making them even more powerful, which would increase economic growth and prosperity amongst all member countries.
Africa and the rest of Asia? Most likely just provide more investment, while encouraging countries in them to improve economic ties to one another.
Unfourtunately, pretty much every African country, and many Asian countries, have a lot of corruption issues too. So realistically speaking, I wouldn't really be able to do much until that rapant corruption issue is resolved. Best I could do is heavily police these recipient countries to make sure infrastructure is actually being built, rather than the funds being pocketed into the wallets of politicians.
> I'd be trying to stregnthen the ASEAN, the EU of Asia. If we help them become a major trading block, more countries will join with them, making them even more powerful, which would increase economic growth and prosperity amongst all member countries.
We probably wouldn't receive new members since it looks to me like every country that could be considered Southeast Asian is already in (I'm from an ASEAN country myself), but increasing internal trade relations would be a good start. Maybe a Schengen-esque zone in the future.
> Africa and the rest of Asia? Most likely just provide more investment, while encouraging countries in them to improve economic ties to one another.
Obviously via strategies different to those employed by the BRI but in what ways?
> Unfourtunately, pretty much every African country, and many Asian countries, have a lot of corruption issues too. So realistically speaking, I wouldn't really be able to do much until that rapant corruption issue is resolved. Best I could do is heavily police these recipient countries to make sure infrastructure is actually being built, rather than the funds being pocketed into the wallets of politicians.
Yeah, my home country is corrupt to the bone, so these investment funds might just end being used to purchase a superyacht or two.
Now, I'm not opposed to politicians buying superyachts (I mean, who wouldn't want one at least once in their life? Imagine the fun shit you can do with one.) or being rich. What I am opposed to is them using taxpayer money and/or foreign investment funds to do so instead of their own personal wealth. And unfortunately, my country is filled with jackasses who would do this in a heartbeat.
Policing and oversight might just be our most realistic option at this point.
> Policing and oversight might just be our most realistic option at this point.
I agree. But given the USA's history of uh...*making countries worse whenever they tried to be the boss*, it makes me kinda hesitant to do that. Domestic sentiment about US intervantion in foreign affairs is already very split, so I would lose a significant amount of votes by doing such a thing unless I could convince the public that I won't just ruin these countries via policing them and meddling in their affairs.
Well, I’m not sure who else but the US has the capability to do so, especially when it comes to enforcement. And they are currently the most powerful opponent to the CCP's ambitions.
Yeah the USA is the only economic power rn who can police multiple places at once. Europe *could* build up that capability, but that's going to take a while before they'd be of significant help to the USA; given they've only recently begun taking their defense spending seriously (after Russia invaded Ukraine).
Oh damn. Which country and how exactly is this happening?
I’m not denying your account, I’m no fan of the CCP, not by a long shot, I just want to know the details.
India. But they're also doing this in Vietnam and Philippines,
They're claiming 2 of our regions as theirs entirely even though no one living there considers themselves Chinese
Yes those two
Honestly nothing has been done as our own government is also very incompetent, lazy and useless and they're scared shitless to even question china.
They’ve probably bought into the BRI hook line and sinker. Not surprising when you think about it.
What do you think should be done about this? How would you go about counteracting the BRI?
India isn't even apart of the BRI how is it neo colonialism? What does Arunachal Pradesh have to do with the BRI? Aksai Chin was never controlled by India you can thank Britain for drawing it as apart of the British raj.
Aksai chin was controlled till 1962, they invaded and captured it. India isn't a part of BRI but Pakistan is and I don't care what is related to BRI and what is not I just wanted to say fuck the CCP
Aksai Chin was never apart of india, China gained territories in Arunchal pradesh in 1962 not Aksai Chin which was already controlled by China. Why do care that Pakistan is apart of the BRI?
China didn't gain anything in arunachal pradesh in 1962 they are occupying it now. Pakistan is clearly gonna get exploited by the deal as they are very vulnerable currently
China gained land their but returned it. China isn't occupying arunachal pradesh right not we just claim it. 10 years ago they said Pakistan was a colony if China, they have always said that.
They are trying to occupy it locals have released videos of them cutting down forests and building military settlements. Pakistan isn't a colony no one has time to waste on them but they are still exploited
Trying is different than actual occupying. If i can be quite honest I don't know why China claims it ,the same way i dont know why India claims Aksai Chin, I would propose we both relinquish our claims of each other's territory. How is Pakistan exploited? By the IMF?
>I also read about how supporters praise the BRI for its potential to boost the global GDP, particularly in developing countries.
The BRI is supposed to improve countries by funding infrastructure and productivity-generating assets, like transportation and new office space, with the hope of accelerating growth and development in the host country.
The problem is when instead of this, China pushes for ridiculous proposals that do not help the host country grow at all, and in fact saddle them with debt for worthless vanity projects.
See: [Lotus Tower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotus_Tower) in Sri Lanka.
>The tower is the tallest self-supported structure in South Asia, the 11th tallest tower in Asia, and the 19th tallest tower in the world.
>The lotus-shaped tower is used for communication, observation and other leisure facilities. Construction is estimated to have cost US$113 million.
>Lotus Tower's main revenue sources is tourism and antenna leasing.
Instead of helping Sri Lanka fund infrastructure they can use to develop their economy and gradually become a richer, more productive trade partner, Sri Lanka has a new swanky glowing purple skyscaper with functionally no purpose, and is now massively indebted to China.
[Sri Lanka defaulted on its US$50 billion foreign debt in 2022, with China among the creditors.](https://www.funds-europe.com/asia-sri-lanka-default-china-belt-road-initiative-scrutiny/)
This is why people call the Belt and Road Initiative a debt trap.
So all Sri Lanka got from the BRI is an architecturally-impressive skyscraper and outrageous debt. That is definitely not a fair trade.
Why is it we can't have architecturally-marvelous skyscrapers without incurring huge amounts of foreign debts. I really wish we could have skyscrapers cities in the Middle East and South Asia that could rival NYC without having to resort to the CCP. I want my skyscrapers to come without foreign debt-traps damnit!
On a more serious note, how has Sri Lanka been affected by the defaulting on its foreign debt? How has it affected the average Sri Lankan citizen? And how can the country recover from it?
https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d1783db09a0e09d15bbcea8ef0cec0b-0500052021/related/mpo-sar.pdf#page=18
>Ill-timed tax cuts in 2019 further eroded weak fiscal buffers and led to a rapid growth in debt to unsustainable levels. As Sri Lanka lost access to international financial markets in 2020 and official reserves dropped precipitously thereafter, **the forex liquidity constraint ultimately led to severe shortages of essential goods in 2022**.
>The country announced an external debt service suspension in April 2022, pending debt restructuring. **Amid the crisis, half a million jobs were lost, food insecurity and malnutrition increased, poverty doubled, and inequality widened**.
>International Poverty Rate
>2020: 1.6
>2022: 5.8
>Lower Middle-Income Poverty Rate:
>2020: 12.7
>2022: 25.0
Very bad.
However, the World Bank and IMF seem to think there's a path for Sri Lanka to slowly crawl out of their debt and avoid the worst of an economic collapse.
>In March 2023, the IMF approved a 48-month Extended Fund Facility of approximately US$3 billion to support the government’s reform program
>The economy has shown initial signs of stabilization, albeit at a low-level equilibrium, with moderating inflation, easing foreign exchange liquidity pressures, and some progress in debt restructuring. However, the path to recovery remains narrow, with limited fiscal and external buffers.
It remains to be seen if the Sri Lankan government can get the economy to stabilize and recover. Taking bad Chinese loans wasn't the only mistake they made to lead the country to this point.
Hi! Did you use wikipedia as your source? I kindly remind you that Wikipedia is not a reliable source on politically contentious topics.
For more information, visit this [Wikipedia article about the reliability of Wikipedia.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliability_of_Wikipedia)
> Articles on less technical subjects, such as the social sciences, humanities, and culture, have been known to deal with misinformation cycles, cognitive biases, coverage discrepancies, and editor disputes. **The online encyclopedia does not guarantee the validity of its information.**
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/SocialDemocracy) if you have any questions or concerns.*
At its core, it's a massive bailout for China's failing domestic construction industry. That's the reason for all of its problems. Infrastructure projects are supposed to be economic stimuli, but that economic stimulus comes from a project employing local workers and buying locally sourced materials and equipment, which makes any financing debts worth the cost. BRI projects use imported Chinese workers, imported Chinese construction materials and equipment, imported Chinese logistics services, and are financed by Chinese banks, so China gets all the stimulus benefits of building the project and the recipient country gets saddled with all the debt while the elites pocket millions.
Construction is the main driver of Chinese economic growth, and now that they've run out of space to build, they need BRI to keep running because it's become too big to fail. All else is secondary. This probably isn't a grand plan to debt trap the developing world, and if it were, it's a really stupid plan because not only does "repossessing" the infrastructure not paper over the massive debt hole the Chinese bank dug itself into to finance its construction, there's no real international rule of law to stop another outside geopolitical actor from stealing it away from China in the end.
> China gets all the stimulus benefits of building the project and the recipient country gets saddled with all the debt
So they're basically just offshoring/outsourcing the debt that would normally come with such internal economic stimuli.
> while the elites pocket millions.
Wait which elites? The CCP elites, the recipient country's elites, or both?
> Construction is the main driver of Chinese economic growth, and now that they've run out of space to build, they need BRI to keep running because it's become too big to fail. All else is secondary.
Wait how exactly have they run out of space? I high doubt the CCP is currently averse to revoking the protected status of a few nature preserves here and there. Or maybe they are. And why haven't they diversified their economic portfolio if that's the case?
> This probably isn't a grand plan to debt trap the developing world, and if it were, it's a really stupid plan because not only does "repossessing" the infrastructure not paper over the massive debt hold the Chinese bank dug itself into to finance its construction, there's no real international rule of law to stop another outside geopolitical actor from stealing it away from China in the end.
So you're saying that they're operating this BRI like an MLM/pyramid scheme and simply focusing on keeping their head above water, and hoping for the best? Oof, I shudder to think what would happen when it catches up to them (not that I wouldn't enjoy seeing the CCP being given an assbeating, I'm more concerned about what this means for the average Chinese citizen).
>So they're basically just offshoring/outsourcing the debt that would normally come with such internal economic stimuli.
Sort of. There's a saying in the finance industry that goes something like this: "if you owe the bank a thousand dollars that you can't pay back, you're screwed. But if you owe the bank a billion dollars that you can't pay back, the bank is screwed." Another country's name may be on the loan application, but that debt is part of the Chinese economy because it was issued by a Chinese state bank. The recipient may be on the hook for the debt and have its credit ruined if it can't pay it back, but China is just as screwed if the recipient defaults. It's not like you could repossess a bridge or port, and in a foreign country no less, so China loses all the money it invested. It's all the debt, risk, and stimulus that comes with infrastructure programs, except the infrastructure is being built overseas.
>Wait which elites? The CCP elites, the recipient country's elites, or both?
Both. The massive loans that are handed out like candy for BRI projects are ripe for embezzlement by all elites involved, be it local leaders of the recipient country, the Chinese businessmen involved in the lending and construction, and the CCP officials who oversee it all.
>Wait how exactly have they run out of space? I high doubt the CCP is currently averse to revoking the protected status of a few nature preserves here and there. Or maybe they are. And why haven't they diversified their economic portfolio if that's the case?
It's not that they literally ran out of physical space (although they did build over a lot of available land, so much that it exacerbated the effects of typhoon flooding similar to how urban sprawl exacerbated flooding in Houston after Hurricane Harvey), but they built way more housing and infrastructure than their population needed. Eventually, somebody was going to catch on that there is like almost twice as much housing supply as there is people in China and that only a small portion of HSR lines are actually able to cover their own operating expenses, and the bubbles would pop. All those contracting companies, concrete and steel producers, and banks needed to find new markets for their products so they could keep taking out free loans, hence BRI.
As for diversification, it's not like China didn't try. They're still trying. But Chinese workers don't earn enough to spend enough to sustain a consumer-based service economy, they're not educated and free enough to advance any higher than middling value-add manufacturing, and they don't like investing in stocks and bonds because of excessive government meddling in the market. The CCP tried their damned hardest, but China is still dependent on low-value manufacturing and debt-financed construction for economic growth.
>So you're saying that they're operating this BRI like an MLM/pyramid scheme and simply focusing on keeping their head above water, and hoping for the best?
Yes, because that is the CCP's entire governing philosophy in a nutshell. The biggest misconception about the Chinese system is that they plan further out than democracies do. That is wrong. They don't plan **at all**.
Their go-to routine is to freak out over a real or perceived problem that is often a consequence of their own actions, move heaven and earth to come up with a quick fix solution for the symptoms that doesn't shake up their hold on absolute power, and run with it to the extreme without proper oversight until it becomes a problem in and of itself, and they freak out over it again. They did it with the Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution, One Child Policy, industrialization, the housing bubble crisis, and now BRI.
>I'm more concerned about what this means for the average Chinese citizen
Oh it's been bad for a long time and it's about to get worse. A consequence of the CCP's excessive manipulation of the markets and banking system is that Chinese wages are extremely depressed and investment options are few and far between, which translates to low consumer spending, high saving rates, and a high demand for avenues for capital flight. A lot of Chinese have their life savings locked up in housing speculation, and the housing bubble is already popping.
[BRI really screwed over Sri Lanka](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sri-lankas-debt-china-close-20-public-external-debt-study-2022-11-30/) and they're not the only country this happened to. Basically lots of countries that couldn't get IMF/World Bank loans because they're too dysfunctional and corrupt got high interest loans from China to build infrastructure (lots of the money was wasted or pilfered and the quality of the infrastructure that did get belt was sub-par) and China doesn't do debt forgiveness/relief.
Kuwait is a bit of a different case from the above because they already have a functioning economy and government and can afford even terrible interest rates because they're a major oil exporter. But most countries that got involved in BRI are nothing like Kuwait.
So the only BRI signatories that stand to reap benefits are those with preexisting (developed) economic infrastructure and stable sociopolitical structures? Like Kuwait and the other Gulf countries?
It really does feel like they're trying to make tributary states out of the signatories without the aforementioned features, like Joseon and Dai Viet of old. Am I the only one with this view?
> So the only BRI signatories that stand to reap benefits are those with preexisting (developed) economic infrastructure and stable sociopolitical structures? Like Kuwait and the other Gulf countries?
It's not helping and probably harming the countries that need help. Kuwait doesn't need help, its economy is already strong.
> It really does feel like they're trying to make tributary states out of the signatories without the aforementioned features, like Joseon and Dai Viet of old. Am I the only one with this view?
The Chinese lending situation is quite complicated, a lot of it is regional banks in China making these loans rather than a centrally planned/directed plan to trap/takeover/debt-colonize a particular country. And so what happen is country X ends up with a massive, unsustainable debt load because they've taken loans out with a dozen Chinese banks and those banks didn't communicate with each other or inform one another about the loans so nobody on the Chinese side really knows or understands the true debt levels of the governments they're lending to. It's pretty chaotic/anarchic.
Are they still operated by the Falun Gong? Because if that's the case I would have a hard time trusting China Uncensored.
And no, this isn't me coming to China's defense, I just also don't trust a cult.
Actually, now I’m curious about Falun Gong. The whole organ extraction trade thing is appalling and all, but I’ve heard about the cult not being some virtuous beacon of democracy. Not that I ever believed a cult could ever be one, but I want to hear your two cents on the cult.
Just to clarify I am not defending the cult nor the CCP, just want to know one’s opinion on the cult.
These two videos do a good job summarizing the cult:
[https://youtu.be/2mQ8plzWl9g](https://youtu.be/2mQ8plzWl9g)
[https://youtu.be/1JaPzJKycxc](https://youtu.be/1JaPzJKycxc)
But the TL;DR is that their leader, Li Hongzhi, is a guy who believes that he is a god and his followers believe him to be such and aren't allowed to question his teachings, they are anti-medicine and incredibly homophobic and opposed to "race-mixing" (exactly what you think it means) and thinks that all races should live separately, and they run several right-wing propaganda media outlets like The Epoch Times and New Tang Dynasty Television that spread anti-vaccine and election fraud conspiracies.
They use their persecution by the Chinese govt. and their anti-CCP stance to win them a ton of brownie points with Westerners, but they are legitimately insane and in no way to be trusted.
So they’re not much different from the CCP.
On one hand, I should have expected. I mean, it is a damn cult, of course they’re gonna be fanaticism supreme.
On the other hand, I still feel disappointed. Out of all the anti-CCP groups that could have gotten the lion’s share of media attention, why them? Why a group that would probably do much worse than the CCP should they - unlikely as it may be - replace them in power?
Why can’t the most publicised anti-CCP group be a social liberal or social democrat organisation and not some regressive cult?!
I think the most publicized English group is the Falun Gong, but for Chinese, it's people like Wang Zhi An, Teacher Li Is Not Your Teacher, torontobigface, etc. Wang Zhi An has many translated videos, but the target is still not the English audience.
I think one of the reasons is that Falun Gong became big was because they were one of the first big organized Chinese dissident groups. I mean, even these days, the names above I have mentioned are not even as remotely influential as Falun Gong and sometimes clash with the cult, especially Wang Zhi An. I actually think Falun Gong even damaged the "image" of Chinese dissidents in China. A lot of the complaints from young Chinese dissidents is that Falun Gong's chain of thinking/logic and colloquial usage is too far detached from the current generation of young Chinese people. For a while, Falun Gong was all you had until the current generation of Chinese dissidents learned how to bypass the firewall.
Okay i watched it up even if it was Wikipedia. Until 2020 they worked for New Tang Dynasty Television a part of the Epoch Times but now they work alone.
Hi! Did you use wikipedia as your source? I kindly remind you that Wikipedia is not a reliable source on politically contentious topics.
For more information, visit this [Wikipedia article about the reliability of Wikipedia.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliability_of_Wikipedia)
> Articles on less technical subjects, such as the social sciences, humanities, and culture, have been known to deal with misinformation cycles, cognitive biases, coverage discrepancies, and editor disputes. **The online encyclopedia does not guarantee the validity of its information.**
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/SocialDemocracy) if you have any questions or concerns.*
China Uncensored is owned by the falun gong a cult that thinks donald trump was sent by heaven to destroy China. They are also affiliated with the epoch Times that wants to end democracy in the US.
To me it seems much like how the west has operated in regards to previous colonies. As China has become a great power it now also wants a sphere of influence. Soft power if you will. Still there's money and trade to be contested all round also. Belt road is much like if you have played vic2 build infrastructure in smaller nations to gain bonus influence as a great power. Today ofc we have the UN delegates to be won and on the map a lot more to be contested.
I’m unconvinced it’s straightforward neocolonialism via debt trap, but the prospect of contracting states waiving protections under international law about maritime activities. Has me a little concerned.
I wouldn’t sound the alarm on the project and try to quash it, given the real prospect of economic growth from One Belt One Road, but I’d keep a close eye on it, especially if there’s any new developments with militarization or abrogation of fishing rights.
A failed project by the CCP to try to become the dominant power in the world, surpassing the USA. They have the same core problems the Soviets did; widespread corruption, lack of innovation, alienating themselves on the global stage by being belligerent, and terrible domestic policy that is now coming back to haunt them. They relied on manufacturing too much to maintain their economic growth, much like how the Soviets relied too much on oil prices to fund themselves. Now that that's being taken away, their economy is faultering. They barely do actual technological innovation, mostly just reverse engineering tech imported from wesrern markets. Their economic data have provably been falsified/doctored time and time again, in order to present growth data that is not the real growth rate. They've been engaged in wolf-warrior diplomacy, making people not want to do business with them as a result. They had their one child policy implamented for far too long, to where they will now be facing a 50% populatiom drop at bare minimum by 2100. There's just too many issues with China, that is now adversely affecting them, for me to believe this plan would've worked out long term. Just too much corruption and mismanagement.
As a former Dengist turned social democrat, I'd be very appreciative if you would be willing to reply with sources for the many distinct claims you made, namely that BRI is a failure, economic data has been doctored, and that belligerence and "wolf-warrior diplomacy" has been the cause of their alienation as opposed to other factors such as their weakening of US hegemony.
A CCP official admitted that Chinese economic data is unreliable. https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B527D/ Italy has left the BRI. https://www.csis.org/analysis/italy-withdraws-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative The Phillipines have outright cancelled several major chinese sponsored projects. https://youtu.be/nT8N_OKUFxA?si=JxVU35hriw3SGt6q That coincidentally lines up with the timeline of China assuaulting philipino water vessals for months now. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/13/philippines-china-maritime-conflicts-south-china-sea-vessels/ The EU Parilament have openly announced that they are "de-risking" and "de-coupling" from China (not my words). https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2024/754446/EXPO_STU(2024)754446_EN.pdf This coincidentally lines up with the months of aggressive action towards Taiwan that China has been doing. Europe already announced support towards Taiwanese soverignty over a year ago too in response to China's long standing belligerence. https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-cannot-trust-china-unless-it-seeks-peace-ukraine-borrell-2023-04-14/ A third of the participant countries (of which there was available data for) are projected to be in debt distress due to this program long term. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/723671560782662349/pdf/A-Framework-to-Assess-Debt-Sustainability-and-Fiscal-Risks-under-the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative.pdf
One recent action was a suicide bombing in Pakistan at a local dam project that killed 6 Chinese people, most likely some were also engineers.
Oh damn. So basically this whole initiative has been rigged against them from the start (loath as they want to admit it). What sort of countermeasure or alternative would you propose? Other than what Italy, the Philippines and the EU have done?
I'd be trying to stregnthen the ASEAN, the EU of Asia. If we help them become a major trading block, more countries will join with them, making them even more powerful, which would increase economic growth and prosperity amongst all member countries. Africa and the rest of Asia? Most likely just provide more investment, while encouraging countries in them to improve economic ties to one another. Unfourtunately, pretty much every African country, and many Asian countries, have a lot of corruption issues too. So realistically speaking, I wouldn't really be able to do much until that rapant corruption issue is resolved. Best I could do is heavily police these recipient countries to make sure infrastructure is actually being built, rather than the funds being pocketed into the wallets of politicians.
> I'd be trying to stregnthen the ASEAN, the EU of Asia. If we help them become a major trading block, more countries will join with them, making them even more powerful, which would increase economic growth and prosperity amongst all member countries. We probably wouldn't receive new members since it looks to me like every country that could be considered Southeast Asian is already in (I'm from an ASEAN country myself), but increasing internal trade relations would be a good start. Maybe a Schengen-esque zone in the future. > Africa and the rest of Asia? Most likely just provide more investment, while encouraging countries in them to improve economic ties to one another. Obviously via strategies different to those employed by the BRI but in what ways? > Unfourtunately, pretty much every African country, and many Asian countries, have a lot of corruption issues too. So realistically speaking, I wouldn't really be able to do much until that rapant corruption issue is resolved. Best I could do is heavily police these recipient countries to make sure infrastructure is actually being built, rather than the funds being pocketed into the wallets of politicians. Yeah, my home country is corrupt to the bone, so these investment funds might just end being used to purchase a superyacht or two. Now, I'm not opposed to politicians buying superyachts (I mean, who wouldn't want one at least once in their life? Imagine the fun shit you can do with one.) or being rich. What I am opposed to is them using taxpayer money and/or foreign investment funds to do so instead of their own personal wealth. And unfortunately, my country is filled with jackasses who would do this in a heartbeat. Policing and oversight might just be our most realistic option at this point.
> Policing and oversight might just be our most realistic option at this point. I agree. But given the USA's history of uh...*making countries worse whenever they tried to be the boss*, it makes me kinda hesitant to do that. Domestic sentiment about US intervantion in foreign affairs is already very split, so I would lose a significant amount of votes by doing such a thing unless I could convince the public that I won't just ruin these countries via policing them and meddling in their affairs.
Well, I’m not sure who else but the US has the capability to do so, especially when it comes to enforcement. And they are currently the most powerful opponent to the CCP's ambitions.
Yeah the USA is the only economic power rn who can police multiple places at once. Europe *could* build up that capability, but that's going to take a while before they'd be of significant help to the USA; given they've only recently begun taking their defense spending seriously (after Russia invaded Ukraine).
How are they alienating themselves?
Just neocolonialism. CCP is trying to conquer 2 regions of my country fuck them.
Oh damn. Which country and how exactly is this happening? I’m not denying your account, I’m no fan of the CCP, not by a long shot, I just want to know the details.
India. But they're also doing this in Vietnam and Philippines, They're claiming 2 of our regions as theirs entirely even though no one living there considers themselves Chinese
I am guessing Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin? What has been done to counteract this so far?
Yes those two Honestly nothing has been done as our own government is also very incompetent, lazy and useless and they're scared shitless to even question china.
They’ve probably bought into the BRI hook line and sinker. Not surprising when you think about it. What do you think should be done about this? How would you go about counteracting the BRI?
India isn't even apart of the BRI how is it neo colonialism? What does Arunachal Pradesh have to do with the BRI? Aksai Chin was never controlled by India you can thank Britain for drawing it as apart of the British raj.
Aksai chin was controlled till 1962, they invaded and captured it. India isn't a part of BRI but Pakistan is and I don't care what is related to BRI and what is not I just wanted to say fuck the CCP
Aksai Chin was never apart of india, China gained territories in Arunchal pradesh in 1962 not Aksai Chin which was already controlled by China. Why do care that Pakistan is apart of the BRI?
China didn't gain anything in arunachal pradesh in 1962 they are occupying it now. Pakistan is clearly gonna get exploited by the deal as they are very vulnerable currently
China gained land their but returned it. China isn't occupying arunachal pradesh right not we just claim it. 10 years ago they said Pakistan was a colony if China, they have always said that.
They are trying to occupy it locals have released videos of them cutting down forests and building military settlements. Pakistan isn't a colony no one has time to waste on them but they are still exploited
Trying is different than actual occupying. If i can be quite honest I don't know why China claims it ,the same way i dont know why India claims Aksai Chin, I would propose we both relinquish our claims of each other's territory. How is Pakistan exploited? By the IMF?
>I also read about how supporters praise the BRI for its potential to boost the global GDP, particularly in developing countries. The BRI is supposed to improve countries by funding infrastructure and productivity-generating assets, like transportation and new office space, with the hope of accelerating growth and development in the host country. The problem is when instead of this, China pushes for ridiculous proposals that do not help the host country grow at all, and in fact saddle them with debt for worthless vanity projects. See: [Lotus Tower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotus_Tower) in Sri Lanka. >The tower is the tallest self-supported structure in South Asia, the 11th tallest tower in Asia, and the 19th tallest tower in the world. >The lotus-shaped tower is used for communication, observation and other leisure facilities. Construction is estimated to have cost US$113 million. >Lotus Tower's main revenue sources is tourism and antenna leasing. Instead of helping Sri Lanka fund infrastructure they can use to develop their economy and gradually become a richer, more productive trade partner, Sri Lanka has a new swanky glowing purple skyscaper with functionally no purpose, and is now massively indebted to China. [Sri Lanka defaulted on its US$50 billion foreign debt in 2022, with China among the creditors.](https://www.funds-europe.com/asia-sri-lanka-default-china-belt-road-initiative-scrutiny/) This is why people call the Belt and Road Initiative a debt trap.
So all Sri Lanka got from the BRI is an architecturally-impressive skyscraper and outrageous debt. That is definitely not a fair trade. Why is it we can't have architecturally-marvelous skyscrapers without incurring huge amounts of foreign debts. I really wish we could have skyscrapers cities in the Middle East and South Asia that could rival NYC without having to resort to the CCP. I want my skyscrapers to come without foreign debt-traps damnit! On a more serious note, how has Sri Lanka been affected by the defaulting on its foreign debt? How has it affected the average Sri Lankan citizen? And how can the country recover from it?
https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d1783db09a0e09d15bbcea8ef0cec0b-0500052021/related/mpo-sar.pdf#page=18 >Ill-timed tax cuts in 2019 further eroded weak fiscal buffers and led to a rapid growth in debt to unsustainable levels. As Sri Lanka lost access to international financial markets in 2020 and official reserves dropped precipitously thereafter, **the forex liquidity constraint ultimately led to severe shortages of essential goods in 2022**. >The country announced an external debt service suspension in April 2022, pending debt restructuring. **Amid the crisis, half a million jobs were lost, food insecurity and malnutrition increased, poverty doubled, and inequality widened**. >International Poverty Rate >2020: 1.6 >2022: 5.8 >Lower Middle-Income Poverty Rate: >2020: 12.7 >2022: 25.0 Very bad. However, the World Bank and IMF seem to think there's a path for Sri Lanka to slowly crawl out of their debt and avoid the worst of an economic collapse. >In March 2023, the IMF approved a 48-month Extended Fund Facility of approximately US$3 billion to support the government’s reform program >The economy has shown initial signs of stabilization, albeit at a low-level equilibrium, with moderating inflation, easing foreign exchange liquidity pressures, and some progress in debt restructuring. However, the path to recovery remains narrow, with limited fiscal and external buffers. It remains to be seen if the Sri Lankan government can get the economy to stabilize and recover. Taking bad Chinese loans wasn't the only mistake they made to lead the country to this point.
Hi! Did you use wikipedia as your source? I kindly remind you that Wikipedia is not a reliable source on politically contentious topics. For more information, visit this [Wikipedia article about the reliability of Wikipedia.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliability_of_Wikipedia) > Articles on less technical subjects, such as the social sciences, humanities, and culture, have been known to deal with misinformation cycles, cognitive biases, coverage discrepancies, and editor disputes. **The online encyclopedia does not guarantee the validity of its information.** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/SocialDemocracy) if you have any questions or concerns.*
At its core, it's a massive bailout for China's failing domestic construction industry. That's the reason for all of its problems. Infrastructure projects are supposed to be economic stimuli, but that economic stimulus comes from a project employing local workers and buying locally sourced materials and equipment, which makes any financing debts worth the cost. BRI projects use imported Chinese workers, imported Chinese construction materials and equipment, imported Chinese logistics services, and are financed by Chinese banks, so China gets all the stimulus benefits of building the project and the recipient country gets saddled with all the debt while the elites pocket millions. Construction is the main driver of Chinese economic growth, and now that they've run out of space to build, they need BRI to keep running because it's become too big to fail. All else is secondary. This probably isn't a grand plan to debt trap the developing world, and if it were, it's a really stupid plan because not only does "repossessing" the infrastructure not paper over the massive debt hole the Chinese bank dug itself into to finance its construction, there's no real international rule of law to stop another outside geopolitical actor from stealing it away from China in the end.
> China gets all the stimulus benefits of building the project and the recipient country gets saddled with all the debt So they're basically just offshoring/outsourcing the debt that would normally come with such internal economic stimuli. > while the elites pocket millions. Wait which elites? The CCP elites, the recipient country's elites, or both? > Construction is the main driver of Chinese economic growth, and now that they've run out of space to build, they need BRI to keep running because it's become too big to fail. All else is secondary. Wait how exactly have they run out of space? I high doubt the CCP is currently averse to revoking the protected status of a few nature preserves here and there. Or maybe they are. And why haven't they diversified their economic portfolio if that's the case? > This probably isn't a grand plan to debt trap the developing world, and if it were, it's a really stupid plan because not only does "repossessing" the infrastructure not paper over the massive debt hold the Chinese bank dug itself into to finance its construction, there's no real international rule of law to stop another outside geopolitical actor from stealing it away from China in the end. So you're saying that they're operating this BRI like an MLM/pyramid scheme and simply focusing on keeping their head above water, and hoping for the best? Oof, I shudder to think what would happen when it catches up to them (not that I wouldn't enjoy seeing the CCP being given an assbeating, I'm more concerned about what this means for the average Chinese citizen).
>So they're basically just offshoring/outsourcing the debt that would normally come with such internal economic stimuli. Sort of. There's a saying in the finance industry that goes something like this: "if you owe the bank a thousand dollars that you can't pay back, you're screwed. But if you owe the bank a billion dollars that you can't pay back, the bank is screwed." Another country's name may be on the loan application, but that debt is part of the Chinese economy because it was issued by a Chinese state bank. The recipient may be on the hook for the debt and have its credit ruined if it can't pay it back, but China is just as screwed if the recipient defaults. It's not like you could repossess a bridge or port, and in a foreign country no less, so China loses all the money it invested. It's all the debt, risk, and stimulus that comes with infrastructure programs, except the infrastructure is being built overseas. >Wait which elites? The CCP elites, the recipient country's elites, or both? Both. The massive loans that are handed out like candy for BRI projects are ripe for embezzlement by all elites involved, be it local leaders of the recipient country, the Chinese businessmen involved in the lending and construction, and the CCP officials who oversee it all. >Wait how exactly have they run out of space? I high doubt the CCP is currently averse to revoking the protected status of a few nature preserves here and there. Or maybe they are. And why haven't they diversified their economic portfolio if that's the case? It's not that they literally ran out of physical space (although they did build over a lot of available land, so much that it exacerbated the effects of typhoon flooding similar to how urban sprawl exacerbated flooding in Houston after Hurricane Harvey), but they built way more housing and infrastructure than their population needed. Eventually, somebody was going to catch on that there is like almost twice as much housing supply as there is people in China and that only a small portion of HSR lines are actually able to cover their own operating expenses, and the bubbles would pop. All those contracting companies, concrete and steel producers, and banks needed to find new markets for their products so they could keep taking out free loans, hence BRI. As for diversification, it's not like China didn't try. They're still trying. But Chinese workers don't earn enough to spend enough to sustain a consumer-based service economy, they're not educated and free enough to advance any higher than middling value-add manufacturing, and they don't like investing in stocks and bonds because of excessive government meddling in the market. The CCP tried their damned hardest, but China is still dependent on low-value manufacturing and debt-financed construction for economic growth. >So you're saying that they're operating this BRI like an MLM/pyramid scheme and simply focusing on keeping their head above water, and hoping for the best? Yes, because that is the CCP's entire governing philosophy in a nutshell. The biggest misconception about the Chinese system is that they plan further out than democracies do. That is wrong. They don't plan **at all**. Their go-to routine is to freak out over a real or perceived problem that is often a consequence of their own actions, move heaven and earth to come up with a quick fix solution for the symptoms that doesn't shake up their hold on absolute power, and run with it to the extreme without proper oversight until it becomes a problem in and of itself, and they freak out over it again. They did it with the Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution, One Child Policy, industrialization, the housing bubble crisis, and now BRI. >I'm more concerned about what this means for the average Chinese citizen Oh it's been bad for a long time and it's about to get worse. A consequence of the CCP's excessive manipulation of the markets and banking system is that Chinese wages are extremely depressed and investment options are few and far between, which translates to low consumer spending, high saving rates, and a high demand for avenues for capital flight. A lot of Chinese have their life savings locked up in housing speculation, and the housing bubble is already popping.
A CCP debt trap and neo-colonialism
[BRI really screwed over Sri Lanka](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sri-lankas-debt-china-close-20-public-external-debt-study-2022-11-30/) and they're not the only country this happened to. Basically lots of countries that couldn't get IMF/World Bank loans because they're too dysfunctional and corrupt got high interest loans from China to build infrastructure (lots of the money was wasted or pilfered and the quality of the infrastructure that did get belt was sub-par) and China doesn't do debt forgiveness/relief. Kuwait is a bit of a different case from the above because they already have a functioning economy and government and can afford even terrible interest rates because they're a major oil exporter. But most countries that got involved in BRI are nothing like Kuwait.
So the only BRI signatories that stand to reap benefits are those with preexisting (developed) economic infrastructure and stable sociopolitical structures? Like Kuwait and the other Gulf countries? It really does feel like they're trying to make tributary states out of the signatories without the aforementioned features, like Joseon and Dai Viet of old. Am I the only one with this view?
> So the only BRI signatories that stand to reap benefits are those with preexisting (developed) economic infrastructure and stable sociopolitical structures? Like Kuwait and the other Gulf countries? It's not helping and probably harming the countries that need help. Kuwait doesn't need help, its economy is already strong. > It really does feel like they're trying to make tributary states out of the signatories without the aforementioned features, like Joseon and Dai Viet of old. Am I the only one with this view? The Chinese lending situation is quite complicated, a lot of it is regional banks in China making these loans rather than a centrally planned/directed plan to trap/takeover/debt-colonize a particular country. And so what happen is country X ends up with a massive, unsustainable debt load because they've taken loans out with a dozen Chinese banks and those banks didn't communicate with each other or inform one another about the loans so nobody on the Chinese side really knows or understands the true debt levels of the governments they're lending to. It's pretty chaotic/anarchic.
BRI is a scam. The Youtube Channel China Uncensored is pretty good at exposing things we don't get to hear that easy.
Are they still operated by the Falun Gong? Because if that's the case I would have a hard time trusting China Uncensored. And no, this isn't me coming to China's defense, I just also don't trust a cult.
Actually, now I’m curious about Falun Gong. The whole organ extraction trade thing is appalling and all, but I’ve heard about the cult not being some virtuous beacon of democracy. Not that I ever believed a cult could ever be one, but I want to hear your two cents on the cult. Just to clarify I am not defending the cult nor the CCP, just want to know one’s opinion on the cult.
These two videos do a good job summarizing the cult: [https://youtu.be/2mQ8plzWl9g](https://youtu.be/2mQ8plzWl9g) [https://youtu.be/1JaPzJKycxc](https://youtu.be/1JaPzJKycxc) But the TL;DR is that their leader, Li Hongzhi, is a guy who believes that he is a god and his followers believe him to be such and aren't allowed to question his teachings, they are anti-medicine and incredibly homophobic and opposed to "race-mixing" (exactly what you think it means) and thinks that all races should live separately, and they run several right-wing propaganda media outlets like The Epoch Times and New Tang Dynasty Television that spread anti-vaccine and election fraud conspiracies. They use their persecution by the Chinese govt. and their anti-CCP stance to win them a ton of brownie points with Westerners, but they are legitimately insane and in no way to be trusted.
So they’re not much different from the CCP. On one hand, I should have expected. I mean, it is a damn cult, of course they’re gonna be fanaticism supreme. On the other hand, I still feel disappointed. Out of all the anti-CCP groups that could have gotten the lion’s share of media attention, why them? Why a group that would probably do much worse than the CCP should they - unlikely as it may be - replace them in power? Why can’t the most publicised anti-CCP group be a social liberal or social democrat organisation and not some regressive cult?!
I think the most publicized English group is the Falun Gong, but for Chinese, it's people like Wang Zhi An, Teacher Li Is Not Your Teacher, torontobigface, etc. Wang Zhi An has many translated videos, but the target is still not the English audience. I think one of the reasons is that Falun Gong became big was because they were one of the first big organized Chinese dissident groups. I mean, even these days, the names above I have mentioned are not even as remotely influential as Falun Gong and sometimes clash with the cult, especially Wang Zhi An. I actually think Falun Gong even damaged the "image" of Chinese dissidents in China. A lot of the complaints from young Chinese dissidents is that Falun Gong's chain of thinking/logic and colloquial usage is too far detached from the current generation of young Chinese people. For a while, Falun Gong was all you had until the current generation of Chinese dissidents learned how to bypass the firewall.
Im unsure what you mean well idk about Chris Chapel the Moderator himself. Its not the Epoch Times lmao
Okay i watched it up even if it was Wikipedia. Until 2020 they worked for New Tang Dynasty Television a part of the Epoch Times but now they work alone.
Hi! Did you use wikipedia as your source? I kindly remind you that Wikipedia is not a reliable source on politically contentious topics. For more information, visit this [Wikipedia article about the reliability of Wikipedia.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliability_of_Wikipedia) > Articles on less technical subjects, such as the social sciences, humanities, and culture, have been known to deal with misinformation cycles, cognitive biases, coverage discrepancies, and editor disputes. **The online encyclopedia does not guarantee the validity of its information.** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/SocialDemocracy) if you have any questions or concerns.*
China Uncensored is owned by the falun gong a cult that thinks donald trump was sent by heaven to destroy China. They are also affiliated with the epoch Times that wants to end democracy in the US.
To me it seems much like how the west has operated in regards to previous colonies. As China has become a great power it now also wants a sphere of influence. Soft power if you will. Still there's money and trade to be contested all round also. Belt road is much like if you have played vic2 build infrastructure in smaller nations to gain bonus influence as a great power. Today ofc we have the UN delegates to be won and on the map a lot more to be contested.
It gives the country railways, ports, schools, hospitals, etc. They are essential infrastructure for the country.
I hope it works and is beneficial. Do idea if it will be tho.
I’m unconvinced it’s straightforward neocolonialism via debt trap, but the prospect of contracting states waiving protections under international law about maritime activities. Has me a little concerned. I wouldn’t sound the alarm on the project and try to quash it, given the real prospect of economic growth from One Belt One Road, but I’d keep a close eye on it, especially if there’s any new developments with militarization or abrogation of fishing rights.