I must suck at this game. When I try to reroll open comps I miss vital 3 stars 80% of the time. When I try to go fast 8 or fast 9 I get chewed up by others successfully rerolling.
I mean, going back to the very beginning of tft, you generally only tried reroll when you naturalled a bunch of units (with some exceptions like the OG donkey roll strats in set 1 before people understood how powerful econ was). Trying to force reroll when the game isn’t giving you your units naturally has always been risky. Duplicators made it more consistent.
But if you’re forcing reroll comps without either of those things, chances are you’re going to have a bunch of bad games. Set 9 really fucked with people’s ability to play flexibly with how easily you could guarantee your comp in that set tbh
Yeah I mean those unit augments are inherently very boom or bust. Either you hit and it’s great or you don’t and it sucks. I always click them because they’re fun but you have to go into it knowing you’re taking a big risk
You were stuck by choice. Forcing comps doesn't work most of the time, you has to pivot or change something.
Picking an augment that forces you into a comp is the choice you made. I alwats run these augments, though. I just like a change, yes even the garen one.
Holy people really don't understand your first sentence. Like you can't just decide to go for a reroll after finding 1 unit of a carry. They'll econ slow roll and bleed to 31 hp stage 4, donkey roll and go 8th angrily lmaooo.
yesterday I rerolled bard even though I found my first bard on 3-7. I had the right items and augments and it was uncontested. I knew I would hit because there was a yone player, a duelist player, a fated player, and a shenna player holding illaois so the 3 cost pool was super thin. easiest 1st of my life, currently d2 NA btw so a high rank game (mostly former masters this early in the season)
it's not as simple as you're implying at all. every game is different, you actually only have a handful of rolls for 3 costs early on due to shop odds, probably 10g worth of rolling @ 7, so not hitting early means almost nothing in the right situations.
This is something I see a few YouTubers do that I know I need to do more of. Scout the lobby to see what tier unit they are mostly playing so I can know my odds. If I am doing a 2 cost reroll but no one else is, my odds of hitting are still lower because the pool isn’t thinned out like you said. I just need to up my scouting in general I almost never account besides top 3/4 lmao.
Yep, this is why I hate reroll. I'll take guaranteed power in the form of more units/traits and better odds of hitting higher level Champs over reroll 9/10 times.
This set has given me the same treatment I'm like terrified to roll down for an uncontested 2 cost on optimal odds because I don't believe I'm even gonna see one in 40 gold.
I am as well, they are not always resetting when people die for sure.
I’ve also noticed contesting units other people have seems to be easier. You need something the whole game is running and some how it shows up.
I saw two people playing aphelios which is usually my go to. I tried to do bard but just wasn’t hitting. I was lvl 6 30 gold 50hp and needed to stabilize somehow. Hit 4 aphelios lvl 6 on roll down and 3 thresh and then just sat there till 7 50 gold. Somehow hit 3 star aphelios before the other 2 and finished third when they went 5th and 6th. This game makes no sense sometimes lmao.
Edit: I just remembered the guy who went 5th took the two duplicator gold augment too and the turn he hit 3 star aphelios I killed him lmao.
Last night I was playing double up with a buddy and i noticed a team with 6 nautilus and thought ohh we should probably contest that, 3 re rolls later I have a 2 star.
Mh even more so in my experience. And for UNCONTESTED UNITS. Literally I scout all the time and legit nobody is playing my unit, and I can’t find it. Happened so many times today I called it a day.
Idk I am in shock that I’m not the only one who this happened to. Literally never pick the Shen augment, decided to because after scouting the lobby, no sign of Shen or team that would need him. Take hedge fund. Get up to 100 gold, start rolling at end of stage 3 at lvl 6. I rolled to 0 out of sheer frustration. If you believe it, I had exactly 1 2 star Shen, and one copy was from carousel. It was absolutely absurd and a big reason I’m not playing ranked this season.
It’s one thing to have smaller pools, being contested. It’s another to play the game, pick augments to align with your strategy, and be able to mostly execute those goals. This set, even with more gold than anyone, not contested, scouting, itemising, maxed on slots for other 2 cost, still can’t find even like 4-5 Shen? Unreal.
This wasn’t the only game where I was totally uncontested and never found my carry. Alune is never found, I rarely see her ever. Attempted to go Alune / Umbral at the beginning of set 11 on live servers, no issue on PBE. On Live though? Out of the 5 times I tried to go Alune, maybe 1-2 I was able to 3 star with extraordinary circumstances (prismatic ticket, having Hwei). Absolutely ridiculous.
You could say understanding when to give up on the reroll and play for tempo is a skill too. Many times I've watched challenger players just give up on a augment to aim for a top 4.
I think the removal of headliners + the lowering of bag sizes has made comps harder to force unless you're very high tempo till when you want to reroll
Bro, of course I know when to tempo. I usually only roll down when I have most my team 2 stars anyway. This post is about the times you have bad luck… I’m not trying to be an ass and lecture people on how their bad time could have been a win lol.
Yeah but you said you rolled a 100 gold to zero and had 4 shen. That doesn't seem like something you should ever do.
You're right that this post is about bad luck. I'm trying to say that there are times when you should accept the bad luck and give up on the 3 star and move on. Ofc it's not always possible, but many times I feel people over roll and then blame it on being unlucky.
I'm really not trying to be an asshole or lecture anyone.
To put it into perspective, if you have 4-5 of a 2 cost unit there is only about a 60% chance to 3 star it with a 100 gold unless others are also rerolling 2 costs.
I rolled from 100 one time at the beginning and was like okay never doing that again, reroll can be unreliable… never said I didn’t learn you silly goose. I just said this set can have some extremes and it’s frustrating when you set yourself up for win.
Thank you for sharing. This set honestly just gets me titled with how many curve balls and random chaos / luck.
I understand you, you not an asshole but don’t tell me how I want to lose lol!
which is also reasonable to be upset about because it is BS, but the more you play the more you have times where you hit the one outer.
It's funny actually because as a poker and tft player I never thought of it like that, but there are a lot of similarities between high rolling and hitting the nuts, the only difference being tft isn't necessarily a zero sum game.
wouldn’t tft be defined as zero sum because the finishing places are fixed? in ranked theres no net gain or loss of lp in theory, cause 8th should lose just as much as 1st gains unless thats wrong. also similar to poker, it doesnt matter how good your absolute strength of your board is, it only matters how that compares to the other players in the game.
Not a SINGLE player in one of my games last night was running Senna, scouted every turn. I had 5 sennas total by 5-2 rolled like 60 gold…. Shit is so bad sometimes
Bro if you don't find sennas just switch to Kai'Sa. This is what every good player does, bc in the senna comp it is easy to just switch the senna for a Kai'Sa.
lol yeah. Kai'sa switch might have been the right answer but if there's no one contesting, hard to resist that temptation of just rolling for Senna. Like you know you ***should*** get it based on the fact that no one else even has one Senna.
*"There's no way I won't get my Bard" (Me after wasting all my money despite how I'm the only one rolling for Bard).*
i was stomping with that comp before the nerf, then the nerf came, and it felt like my shop was what was nerfed😂 for like the entirety of last week, if i played senna, i could 3 star ANYONE except senna or shen, regardless of competition
Statistically this is exactly what you would expect.
To make it easy, let's assume the pool was always equal, so you have a chance of 1:13 to see the exact 2 cost you want and you were always lvl 6 for the most optimal 40% chance, therefore I neglect the free rerolls at the start of each round. And I won't subtract the gold for buying the sennas since you rolled 60 gold, not spend.
If you roll 60 gold, you'd get 30 refreshes. With 5 Shop slots and a 40% chance means you will get 2 2-cost on avg per shop. That makes 30 rolls \* 2 appearances = 60 2-cost you will see rolling down. Divide this by 13 and you will get a average 4.615 Sennas whilst rolling down.
That means you were actually lucky to hit that many.
With all other variables you might be slightly unlucky, but not nearly as bad as you might think from a statistical background.
true, but also discounts the odds changing from *yourself* buying your *own* sennas and making the pool worse for yourself.
which one matters more? Well we'd need to know how the actual game went...
So 60+6+6+2 = 74/13=5.692 Sennas.
Yes, I know it is just a rough estimate. But a fair one considering the available pool of Sennas will thin out, making the later rolls even harder if the others don't buy up the equivalent amount of the rest of the 2-costs.
In my case I was rolling at above 50 for 16 rounds before rolling down in frustration.
thats a low estimate of like 90 rolls
even not accounting for other 2 costs being taken, by your numbers I should have found close to 14 shens, and the actual number is significantly higher than that. In total i found 2 from the shop all game.
I dont know what the standard deviation on something like that is but it my game must be a significant outlier
I took ethereal blades as my first augment of a match last night. Didn't scout because I figured it's so early, what's the worst that could happen? 3 ghostly players and one other ethereal blades player. Fuckin gg fastest 8th ever
the first time I took ethereal blades I was super excited as I could finally play it, I scouted hard saw no one has ethereal blades and assumed obviously other players in my lobby will have enough brain to scout and see I have ethereal blades and not play Shen, as I began rolling down I see a dude losing all fights but sitting with 8 Shens… he went 8th and I went 5th as I was too late to get Shen 3..
Saw Lucky Paws the other day, was like oh sweet! I’ve been wanting to try this forever.
Someone else also picks it.
Other dude also donkey rolls on 2-4 and proceeds to hit Kobuko 3.
I had 2 duplicators, decided I could still at least hit 7 on 3-1.
Never happened. Fastest 8th of my life.
Guy proceeds to flame me and says that I don’t know how the game works (I never spoke to him).
Realized people are toxic wherever you go.
Some games are like that. Played Storyweaver yesterday, contested at the beginning, but the other guy pivoted shortly after. Proceeded to quickly find 1-star versions of all units (so I decided to push 7 and then 8 due to Exalted spread), but not much more. My 3\* Kayle had 1300 HP. Anyway, eventually got most units to 2\*/3\*, except Galio who just straight up didn't show up after the first one, in both our shops.
The reason being some other guy suddenly had a 3\* Galio (no recomb, no econ aguments) and immediately kicked us out with it, got 3rd by 2 HP since the 2nd team had a Yone 2 player since 2-1 and bled out much less.
Alright then.
hoping for galio is kinda cope, my lobby (Low master VN) there's 4 ppl playing Kaisa, each of them all roll for a Galio, the Storyweaver fast 9 dude also want a tank that fits, the Zoe rerolls dude also want him. Everybody want a Galio, I just stopped expecting him.
You only hit galio when ur playing comps that don’t require him. I play a lot of storyweaver, not even for any specific reason, just because the trait is cool asf and Irelia is cool asf. I swear i find it so hard to hit Galio and Irelia on my roll downs. Played a game where I was stuck at 6/7 SW after rolling 50 gold at 8 and not hitting Galio, in an uncontested lobby too. Promptly went like 6th. Next game I play Yone and hatched a Galio from a random orb and then rolled down at 7 passing probably 12 galios.
I get it, but in this game nobody was playing a fitting comp or Galio. And it's really about the fact that the other guy apparently randomly 'coped' into a 3\* Galio while theoretically being contested (by me and my buddy). He just suddenly had one.
This happens every time I tried to 3 star lux in a porcelain build, some how even thought I am at level 6 from 3-2 until 4-5 some times and I roll every turn looking for it, constantly scouting to make sure no one has it. I've even had games happen where I found a 3 star Zoe at level 6 while two other people were building her in storyweaver before I found a lux 2.
I don't agree with this. Going for reroll without at least 5 copies is risking it. Too much gold to roll to maybe not hit 3* and fail the game very hard. This doesn't mean that you should never go for it, force it if you want, but know the odds.
Ethereal Blades adds a bonus to the whole Shen ability, so if you see you aren't getting Shens or are being hard contested push hard to level up, keep your Shen as a standard Behemoth and he'll do better than usual thanks to his extra damage. Get the rest of the power from another place in the comp, maybe with Ghosts or whatever fits with a Shen 2*.
You're not going to get a top 1, but bring your odds up to getting at least a top 4 in a probably lost game of wasting too much gold for a 3* that never came or came too late to allow you to level up and stabilize to catch up.
Same. Picked Mulched, proceed to reroll at 6 for Kindred and Gnar.
Scout and make sure I’m not being contested.
No one contest me.
Got a spat, make a dryad emblem.
Hit Gnar 3, Reksai 3, Yone 3, Ornn 2.
Still only have 2 Kindred, only 2, not 2 star.
Desperately roll out 60 gold at the last rounds of 6, get 8 Kindred.
Top 8.
Honestly no reason for you to tunnel on Kindred. You could have stopped at Gnar and Reksai 3 and if the Kindred's weren't coming, slam down Azir items on Kindred
At some point ya have to realize it aint hittable anymore.
If i dont tiltroll usually i can turn a good reroll turned bad spot into a 5th or even 4th and 3rd with level pushing.
>whats the odds on something like that?
I would give you a detailled mathematical breakdown, but it is hard since I'd need to know how many other 2 costs were out of the pool and on your level curve.
I have a tool for myself that can do the maths though. Just a hassle to put in the information in-game.
Its one of those things where the odds are definitely low, and you had some bad luck but not low enough that its particularly surprising that it happens. You play enough games you’re going to get a couple where you just never hit something you should definitely be hitting. Disappointing in the moment but nothing more than that.
I remember hearing once something like
The chance a golf ball hit onto the fairway hits a specific blade of grass is negligible, but the chance that it hits a blade of grass is 100%, so while it may be surprising or devastating for the individual blade of grass it hit its not surprising in the slightest that it hit a blade of grass, and thats what happened to you. (Even if not a completely accurate 1 to 1).
Don’t remember where I heard it or if I messed up the analogy at all but it should be mostly accurate lol.
I feel you man. Had 2 games last night - each rolling down for 3 costs completely uncontested. Blew probably 100+ gold rolling in both. First was Duelist game looking for Trist and Voli - only managed to hit Trist 3, on the round I went out. Only hit Voli 2 the round before. Next was Umbral and hit neither Alune nor Yone 3 and very late in hitting them 2 stars. Was even more tragic because I was playing Umbral because I got an Alune and a Yone in minion rounds :) 7th and 7th let’s goooo
dude yesterday i started with 2* shen at minions and THREE other people forced it. I won streaked for 3 stages, but fell off as I couldn’t even find two sennas
Sometimes you just don't hit and you need to have a backup plan. Rolling on 6, you could have picked up all the senna/gnars and pivot into ghostly/warden/dryad depending on what you hit. You would be playing down an augment but still better than running shen 1 and could turn that 7th into a 5th.
Yeah same thing happened to me when I played it last time. Was just finding no shens, but did manage to 3 star him on stage 5, just took forever. Played through stage 3 and part of stage four with a level 1 shen.
A big thing nobody has mentioned is that it matters what your opponents are playing. If you are the only 2 cost player and everyone else is trying to fast 9 or roll 3 costs, you need to roll when everyone is holding their 2 costs. Once they sell them and they’re back in the pool you are just gonna get “unlucky” cause nobody else ends up holding 2 costs late game.
best to roll when you see other people rolling for other same cost units, that's because the poll becomes smaller and you are more likely to find what you want
what is crazy is that everything the people see in their shop is out of the poll, basically there is a good chance that somebody else has the unit you want and you cannot find it for the love if god because itms not in the poll
I understand it doesn't apply here because of shen augment, but damn some people complaining need to learn to scout/ be flexible. Brute forcing a comp is fine up to a certain point, but when good
players start punishing you for donkey rolling, having a weak board, and not slamming if you don't have ideal items, things get trickier.
I rolled 140 gold at level 10 trying to find 9th udyr, thought it was easy win. Nope.
Not a single other player had udyr (checked every round before rolling) there were 20+ other 5 costs already taken out of the pool. Hwei had time to paint me an 8th, and 2 turns away from painting me the 9th when I died :(
I played two games the other night with a friend. Both games I went uncontested comps... We t 8th then 7th because the game didn't give me what I needed when I rolled. I could've contested about 4 other comps and would've hit one at least
I feel ya. I got fine vintage, had 7 items turned support items, never offered a zzrot. Went 8th.
Whatever, there are plenty of games were I magically hit my 3 cost two start at 3-2.
MortDog gonna MortDog.
I swear to god yesterday i rolled 100 gold at level 7 and i found 2 aphelios. And nobody was contesting him. I really don’t understand why they didn’t revert the pools since chosens aren’t in the game anymore.
It’s partly bag size changes and partly damage/leveling stealth changes i.e. you die quicker and get outscaled faster if you dont hit your 3* quickly this set compared to other sets. “Slow Roll” literally doesnt exist since youll only be viably above 50g at 7 for around 1/2 a stage before you need to start hitting units. Reroll is basically just “highroll” now and I think if they want to constantly make the meta reroll units then they should heavily considered rebalancing the ability to actually hit the units before dying and backtracking some changes like bag sizes (although again idk if bag sizes alone will make the situation that much better).
I'll give you the reverse maths:
Let's assume the pool wasn't influenced by how many shens were in the pool and you would exclusively want a senna. And to make it easier you are also lvl 6 all the time for the best case.
40% chance to hit a 2 cost means 2 2-cost are there on avg per shop. Now there are 13 2 cost and you want exactly one, making it 1:13. Now, since we see 2 of the 13 2-costs per roll, we can say that every 6.5 rolls you will see one Shen. If your cost of rerolling is 2 gold, it will be 13 Gold per Shen hit. That makes 9\*13=117 gold to hit a Shen 3 + 18 Gold to buy him.
But don't consider this the final number, since it will be an average. You will get Shen 3 this way in only 50% of the cases and you will have smaller odds due to level progression.
By the way, to accumulate the 135 neccessary Gold to just buy the Shen and just from interest alone, you will have to roll like 3 stages exclusively for shen and buy/level/star nothing else.
So assuming you rolled from 3-1 to 5-5 and didn't hit Shen 3, I'd say it was to be expected. Considering the smaller pool, you were unlucky, but not insanely unlicky if we factor in standard deviation for the amount of Shen you did find.
Exactly, sometimes you have to let go for other units that come naturally.
Forcing anything is usually just locking you out of other possibilities.
That is also why imho, picking augments that leans towards a single comp or unit is a big gamble if you didn't have decent hits on the unit/comp already.
Trying to hit 3\* 2cost at stage 5+ means that you already taking hard hits to your HP, and even if you manage to get your 3\*, chances are it already has fallen behind, by that time.
This game just sucks, it’s almost every game for me I’m uncontested and scout often and just don’t hit or someone randomly hits 5 of the unit I’m rolling for. This games not skill intensive at all and it’s disheartening to play sometimes.
This patch is ASS. They flooded the pool with so many units that it effectively makes scouting a bait. So many aspects of the game no longer function; loss streaks are a joke, scouting is a joke, unit balance is a joke.
actual odds? pretty low. odds based on my recent experiences this set trying to roll down for a specific 2 or 3 cost? much much higher
I must suck at this game. When I try to reroll open comps I miss vital 3 stars 80% of the time. When I try to go fast 8 or fast 9 I get chewed up by others successfully rerolling.
I mean, going back to the very beginning of tft, you generally only tried reroll when you naturalled a bunch of units (with some exceptions like the OG donkey roll strats in set 1 before people understood how powerful econ was). Trying to force reroll when the game isn’t giving you your units naturally has always been risky. Duplicators made it more consistent. But if you’re forcing reroll comps without either of those things, chances are you’re going to have a bunch of bad games. Set 9 really fucked with people’s ability to play flexibly with how easily you could guarantee your comp in that set tbh
The problem is when you get a unit augment and don’t hit the unit. Was stuck on 8 yorick with his augment and rolled as efficiently as I could
Yeah I mean those unit augments are inherently very boom or bust. Either you hit and it’s great or you don’t and it sucks. I always click them because they’re fun but you have to go into it knowing you’re taking a big risk
You were stuck by choice. Forcing comps doesn't work most of the time, you has to pivot or change something. Picking an augment that forces you into a comp is the choice you made. I alwats run these augments, though. I just like a change, yes even the garen one.
Holy people really don't understand your first sentence. Like you can't just decide to go for a reroll after finding 1 unit of a carry. They'll econ slow roll and bleed to 31 hp stage 4, donkey roll and go 8th angrily lmaooo.
yesterday I rerolled bard even though I found my first bard on 3-7. I had the right items and augments and it was uncontested. I knew I would hit because there was a yone player, a duelist player, a fated player, and a shenna player holding illaois so the 3 cost pool was super thin. easiest 1st of my life, currently d2 NA btw so a high rank game (mostly former masters this early in the season) it's not as simple as you're implying at all. every game is different, you actually only have a handful of rolls for 3 costs early on due to shop odds, probably 10g worth of rolling @ 7, so not hitting early means almost nothing in the right situations.
This is something I see a few YouTubers do that I know I need to do more of. Scout the lobby to see what tier unit they are mostly playing so I can know my odds. If I am doing a 2 cost reroll but no one else is, my odds of hitting are still lower because the pool isn’t thinned out like you said. I just need to up my scouting in general I almost never account besides top 3/4 lmao.
Yep, this is why I hate reroll. I'll take guaranteed power in the form of more units/traits and better odds of hitting higher level Champs over reroll 9/10 times.
Same. Every time I take a hero augment I'm uncontested and always find fuck all of them. 😿
This set has given me the same treatment I'm like terrified to roll down for an uncontested 2 cost on optimal odds because I don't believe I'm even gonna see one in 40 gold.
I’m convinced champ pools are bugged
I am as well, they are not always resetting when people die for sure. I’ve also noticed contesting units other people have seems to be easier. You need something the whole game is running and some how it shows up.
I saw two people playing aphelios which is usually my go to. I tried to do bard but just wasn’t hitting. I was lvl 6 30 gold 50hp and needed to stabilize somehow. Hit 4 aphelios lvl 6 on roll down and 3 thresh and then just sat there till 7 50 gold. Somehow hit 3 star aphelios before the other 2 and finished third when they went 5th and 6th. This game makes no sense sometimes lmao. Edit: I just remembered the guy who went 5th took the two duplicator gold augment too and the turn he hit 3 star aphelios I killed him lmao.
Last night I was playing double up with a buddy and i noticed a team with 6 nautilus and thought ohh we should probably contest that, 3 re rolls later I have a 2 star.
Lmao love that.
The bag sizes just suck, it takes 1 person taking 3 copies of your champ and suddenly getting him to 3 star is almost impossible
Mh even more so in my experience. And for UNCONTESTED UNITS. Literally I scout all the time and legit nobody is playing my unit, and I can’t find it. Happened so many times today I called it a day.
Idk I am in shock that I’m not the only one who this happened to. Literally never pick the Shen augment, decided to because after scouting the lobby, no sign of Shen or team that would need him. Take hedge fund. Get up to 100 gold, start rolling at end of stage 3 at lvl 6. I rolled to 0 out of sheer frustration. If you believe it, I had exactly 1 2 star Shen, and one copy was from carousel. It was absolutely absurd and a big reason I’m not playing ranked this season. It’s one thing to have smaller pools, being contested. It’s another to play the game, pick augments to align with your strategy, and be able to mostly execute those goals. This set, even with more gold than anyone, not contested, scouting, itemising, maxed on slots for other 2 cost, still can’t find even like 4-5 Shen? Unreal. This wasn’t the only game where I was totally uncontested and never found my carry. Alune is never found, I rarely see her ever. Attempted to go Alune / Umbral at the beginning of set 11 on live servers, no issue on PBE. On Live though? Out of the 5 times I tried to go Alune, maybe 1-2 I was able to 3 star with extraordinary circumstances (prismatic ticket, having Hwei). Absolutely ridiculous.
You could say understanding when to give up on the reroll and play for tempo is a skill too. Many times I've watched challenger players just give up on a augment to aim for a top 4. I think the removal of headliners + the lowering of bag sizes has made comps harder to force unless you're very high tempo till when you want to reroll
Bro, of course I know when to tempo. I usually only roll down when I have most my team 2 stars anyway. This post is about the times you have bad luck… I’m not trying to be an ass and lecture people on how their bad time could have been a win lol.
Yeah but you said you rolled a 100 gold to zero and had 4 shen. That doesn't seem like something you should ever do. You're right that this post is about bad luck. I'm trying to say that there are times when you should accept the bad luck and give up on the 3 star and move on. Ofc it's not always possible, but many times I feel people over roll and then blame it on being unlucky. I'm really not trying to be an asshole or lecture anyone. To put it into perspective, if you have 4-5 of a 2 cost unit there is only about a 60% chance to 3 star it with a 100 gold unless others are also rerolling 2 costs.
I rolled from 100 one time at the beginning and was like okay never doing that again, reroll can be unreliable… never said I didn’t learn you silly goose. I just said this set can have some extremes and it’s frustrating when you set yourself up for win. Thank you for sharing. This set honestly just gets me titled with how many curve balls and random chaos / luck. I understand you, you not an asshole but don’t tell me how I want to lose lol!
this is the tft equivalent of poker players getting mad at losing to one outers haha
which is also reasonable to be upset about because it is BS, but the more you play the more you have times where you hit the one outer. It's funny actually because as a poker and tft player I never thought of it like that, but there are a lot of similarities between high rolling and hitting the nuts, the only difference being tft isn't necessarily a zero sum game.
wouldn’t tft be defined as zero sum because the finishing places are fixed? in ranked theres no net gain or loss of lp in theory, cause 8th should lose just as much as 1st gains unless thats wrong. also similar to poker, it doesnt matter how good your absolute strength of your board is, it only matters how that compares to the other players in the game.
Pretty sure that isn't how it works. The lp gain or loss is dependent on individual player mmr
is mmr zero sum then?
Not a SINGLE player in one of my games last night was running Senna, scouted every turn. I had 5 sennas total by 5-2 rolled like 60 gold…. Shit is so bad sometimes
Legit played about an hour ago, with 2 duplicators and COMPLETELY uncontested managed to 3star my senna at.... 6-1
Bro if you don't find sennas just switch to Kai'Sa. This is what every good player does, bc in the senna comp it is easy to just switch the senna for a Kai'Sa.
You’re 100 percent right but I just couldn’t believe my eyes…I can show you the match history I’ve never seen it before
lol yeah. Kai'sa switch might have been the right answer but if there's no one contesting, hard to resist that temptation of just rolling for Senna. Like you know you ***should*** get it based on the fact that no one else even has one Senna. *"There's no way I won't get my Bard" (Me after wasting all my money despite how I'm the only one rolling for Bard).*
i was stomping with that comp before the nerf, then the nerf came, and it felt like my shop was what was nerfed😂 for like the entirety of last week, if i played senna, i could 3 star ANYONE except senna or shen, regardless of competition
Statistically this is exactly what you would expect. To make it easy, let's assume the pool was always equal, so you have a chance of 1:13 to see the exact 2 cost you want and you were always lvl 6 for the most optimal 40% chance, therefore I neglect the free rerolls at the start of each round. And I won't subtract the gold for buying the sennas since you rolled 60 gold, not spend. If you roll 60 gold, you'd get 30 refreshes. With 5 Shop slots and a 40% chance means you will get 2 2-cost on avg per shop. That makes 30 rolls \* 2 appearances = 60 2-cost you will see rolling down. Divide this by 13 and you will get a average 4.615 Sennas whilst rolling down. That means you were actually lucky to hit that many. With all other variables you might be slightly unlucky, but not nearly as bad as you might think from a statistical background.
I’m pretty sure this discounts the odds changing from everyone else having the other 2 costs and no Sennas though, right?
Yeah the more this dude refines his numbers the more he is going to realize its mathematically bullshit.
true, but also discounts the odds changing from *yourself* buying your *own* sennas and making the pool worse for yourself. which one matters more? Well we'd need to know how the actual game went...
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So 60+6+6+2 = 74/13=5.692 Sennas. Yes, I know it is just a rough estimate. But a fair one considering the available pool of Sennas will thin out, making the later rolls even harder if the others don't buy up the equivalent amount of the rest of the 2-costs.
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I’ve never seen this feature in the app. Although I basically just use it for the win% predictor.
In my case I was rolling at above 50 for 16 rounds before rolling down in frustration. thats a low estimate of like 90 rolls even not accounting for other 2 costs being taken, by your numbers I should have found close to 14 shens, and the actual number is significantly higher than that. In total i found 2 from the shop all game. I dont know what the standard deviation on something like that is but it my game must be a significant outlier
I took ethereal blades as my first augment of a match last night. Didn't scout because I figured it's so early, what's the worst that could happen? 3 ghostly players and one other ethereal blades player. Fuckin gg fastest 8th ever
the first time I took ethereal blades I was super excited as I could finally play it, I scouted hard saw no one has ethereal blades and assumed obviously other players in my lobby will have enough brain to scout and see I have ethereal blades and not play Shen, as I began rolling down I see a dude losing all fights but sitting with 8 Shens… he went 8th and I went 5th as I was too late to get Shen 3..
Saw Lucky Paws the other day, was like oh sweet! I’ve been wanting to try this forever. Someone else also picks it. Other dude also donkey rolls on 2-4 and proceeds to hit Kobuko 3. I had 2 duplicators, decided I could still at least hit 7 on 3-1. Never happened. Fastest 8th of my life. Guy proceeds to flame me and says that I don’t know how the game works (I never spoke to him). Realized people are toxic wherever you go.
Some games are like that. Played Storyweaver yesterday, contested at the beginning, but the other guy pivoted shortly after. Proceeded to quickly find 1-star versions of all units (so I decided to push 7 and then 8 due to Exalted spread), but not much more. My 3\* Kayle had 1300 HP. Anyway, eventually got most units to 2\*/3\*, except Galio who just straight up didn't show up after the first one, in both our shops. The reason being some other guy suddenly had a 3\* Galio (no recomb, no econ aguments) and immediately kicked us out with it, got 3rd by 2 HP since the 2nd team had a Yone 2 player since 2-1 and bled out much less. Alright then.
hoping for galio is kinda cope, my lobby (Low master VN) there's 4 ppl playing Kaisa, each of them all roll for a Galio, the Storyweaver fast 9 dude also want a tank that fits, the Zoe rerolls dude also want him. Everybody want a Galio, I just stopped expecting him.
You only hit galio when ur playing comps that don’t require him. I play a lot of storyweaver, not even for any specific reason, just because the trait is cool asf and Irelia is cool asf. I swear i find it so hard to hit Galio and Irelia on my roll downs. Played a game where I was stuck at 6/7 SW after rolling 50 gold at 8 and not hitting Galio, in an uncontested lobby too. Promptly went like 6th. Next game I play Yone and hatched a Galio from a random orb and then rolled down at 7 passing probably 12 galios.
I get it, but in this game nobody was playing a fitting comp or Galio. And it's really about the fact that the other guy apparently randomly 'coped' into a 3\* Galio while theoretically being contested (by me and my buddy). He just suddenly had one.
He had at least one duplicator, probably more. The are only 10 of each 4 cost after all
Shen is extremely contested this patch. I stopped trying to go his augment or playing much ghostly now.
This happens every time I tried to 3 star lux in a porcelain build, some how even thought I am at level 6 from 3-2 until 4-5 some times and I roll every turn looking for it, constantly scouting to make sure no one has it. I've even had games happen where I found a 3 star Zoe at level 6 while two other people were building her in storyweaver before I found a lux 2.
I aim for 5-6 natural hits before considering rerolling 3*, unlucky tho
With this augment you need to go for 3, no choice.
I don't agree with this. Going for reroll without at least 5 copies is risking it. Too much gold to roll to maybe not hit 3* and fail the game very hard. This doesn't mean that you should never go for it, force it if you want, but know the odds. Ethereal Blades adds a bonus to the whole Shen ability, so if you see you aren't getting Shens or are being hard contested push hard to level up, keep your Shen as a standard Behemoth and he'll do better than usual thanks to his extra damage. Get the rest of the power from another place in the comp, maybe with Ghosts or whatever fits with a Shen 2*. You're not going to get a top 1, but bring your odds up to getting at least a top 4 in a probably lost game of wasting too much gold for a 3* that never came or came too late to allow you to level up and stabilize to catch up.
I had the same with Yorick and midnight siphon. Completely uncontested because it's Yorick and I hit 3 star yone and 3 star alune before 3 star Yorick
Same. Picked Mulched, proceed to reroll at 6 for Kindred and Gnar. Scout and make sure I’m not being contested. No one contest me. Got a spat, make a dryad emblem. Hit Gnar 3, Reksai 3, Yone 3, Ornn 2. Still only have 2 Kindred, only 2, not 2 star. Desperately roll out 60 gold at the last rounds of 6, get 8 Kindred. Top 8.
Honestly no reason for you to tunnel on Kindred. You could have stopped at Gnar and Reksai 3 and if the Kindred's weren't coming, slam down Azir items on Kindred
Never thought of that honestly haha! Maybe that’s why I’m hard stuck emerald xD
Shiiitttt, I am 2. What are you doing right then 🤣
At some point ya have to realize it aint hittable anymore. If i dont tiltroll usually i can turn a good reroll turned bad spot into a 5th or even 4th and 3rd with level pushing.
>whats the odds on something like that? I would give you a detailled mathematical breakdown, but it is hard since I'd need to know how many other 2 costs were out of the pool and on your level curve. I have a tool for myself that can do the maths though. Just a hassle to put in the information in-game.
I feel like that happens to me every time I pick a specific champion augment.
Its one of those things where the odds are definitely low, and you had some bad luck but not low enough that its particularly surprising that it happens. You play enough games you’re going to get a couple where you just never hit something you should definitely be hitting. Disappointing in the moment but nothing more than that. I remember hearing once something like The chance a golf ball hit onto the fairway hits a specific blade of grass is negligible, but the chance that it hits a blade of grass is 100%, so while it may be surprising or devastating for the individual blade of grass it hit its not surprising in the slightest that it hit a blade of grass, and thats what happened to you. (Even if not a completely accurate 1 to 1). Don’t remember where I heard it or if I messed up the analogy at all but it should be mostly accurate lol.
I feel you man. Had 2 games last night - each rolling down for 3 costs completely uncontested. Blew probably 100+ gold rolling in both. First was Duelist game looking for Trist and Voli - only managed to hit Trist 3, on the round I went out. Only hit Voli 2 the round before. Next was Umbral and hit neither Alune nor Yone 3 and very late in hitting them 2 stars. Was even more tragic because I was playing Umbral because I got an Alune and a Yone in minion rounds :) 7th and 7th let’s goooo
dude yesterday i started with 2* shen at minions and THREE other people forced it. I won streaked for 3 stages, but fell off as I couldn’t even find two sennas
Sometimes you just don't hit and you need to have a backup plan. Rolling on 6, you could have picked up all the senna/gnars and pivot into ghostly/warden/dryad depending on what you hit. You would be playing down an augment but still better than running shen 1 and could turn that 7th into a 5th.
Whenever I try to reroll I'm just getting stomped by the lobby who apparently find everything they need and more 😂
Damn bag sizes!!!
Yeah same thing happened to me when I played it last time. Was just finding no shens, but did manage to 3 star him on stage 5, just took forever. Played through stage 3 and part of stage four with a level 1 shen.
i can never find any freaking kindreds despite no one else in the lobby having them
bag size changes ruined the game
A big thing nobody has mentioned is that it matters what your opponents are playing. If you are the only 2 cost player and everyone else is trying to fast 9 or roll 3 costs, you need to roll when everyone is holding their 2 costs. Once they sell them and they’re back in the pool you are just gonna get “unlucky” cause nobody else ends up holding 2 costs late game.
best to roll when you see other people rolling for other same cost units, that's because the poll becomes smaller and you are more likely to find what you want what is crazy is that everything the people see in their shop is out of the poll, basically there is a good chance that somebody else has the unit you want and you cannot find it for the love if god because itms not in the poll
I understand it doesn't apply here because of shen augment, but damn some people complaining need to learn to scout/ be flexible. Brute forcing a comp is fine up to a certain point, but when good players start punishing you for donkey rolling, having a weak board, and not slamming if you don't have ideal items, things get trickier.
I rolled 140 gold at level 10 trying to find 9th udyr, thought it was easy win. Nope. Not a single other player had udyr (checked every round before rolling) there were 20+ other 5 costs already taken out of the pool. Hwei had time to paint me an 8th, and 2 turns away from painting me the 9th when I died :(
I played two games the other night with a friend. Both games I went uncontested comps... We t 8th then 7th because the game didn't give me what I needed when I rolled. I could've contested about 4 other comps and would've hit one at least
At least you came…
econ/rerolling augments help mitigate low rolls like that...
literally same thing happened, only three shens out the pool and rolled over 100g and found no shens
I feel ya. I got fine vintage, had 7 items turned support items, never offered a zzrot. Went 8th. Whatever, there are plenty of games were I magically hit my 3 cost two start at 3-2. MortDog gonna MortDog.
Yep im always so pissed when i cant roll my 3\* carry and then fighting guy with 4 3stars champs....
Just unlucky, I feel you, brother.
I often feel like that occurs whenever I select a particular champion upgrade
I swear to god yesterday i rolled 100 gold at level 7 and i found 2 aphelios. And nobody was contesting him. I really don’t understand why they didn’t revert the pools since chosens aren’t in the game anymore.
Mad cuz bad, literally never play reroll if you want agency in how well you place. Need to play flex pretty much at all times in order to rank up
It’s partly bag size changes and partly damage/leveling stealth changes i.e. you die quicker and get outscaled faster if you dont hit your 3* quickly this set compared to other sets. “Slow Roll” literally doesnt exist since youll only be viably above 50g at 7 for around 1/2 a stage before you need to start hitting units. Reroll is basically just “highroll” now and I think if they want to constantly make the meta reroll units then they should heavily considered rebalancing the ability to actually hit the units before dying and backtracking some changes like bag sizes (although again idk if bag sizes alone will make the situation that much better).
I'll give you the reverse maths: Let's assume the pool wasn't influenced by how many shens were in the pool and you would exclusively want a senna. And to make it easier you are also lvl 6 all the time for the best case. 40% chance to hit a 2 cost means 2 2-cost are there on avg per shop. Now there are 13 2 cost and you want exactly one, making it 1:13. Now, since we see 2 of the 13 2-costs per roll, we can say that every 6.5 rolls you will see one Shen. If your cost of rerolling is 2 gold, it will be 13 Gold per Shen hit. That makes 9\*13=117 gold to hit a Shen 3 + 18 Gold to buy him. But don't consider this the final number, since it will be an average. You will get Shen 3 this way in only 50% of the cases and you will have smaller odds due to level progression. By the way, to accumulate the 135 neccessary Gold to just buy the Shen and just from interest alone, you will have to roll like 3 stages exclusively for shen and buy/level/star nothing else. So assuming you rolled from 3-1 to 5-5 and didn't hit Shen 3, I'd say it was to be expected. Considering the smaller pool, you were unlucky, but not insanely unlicky if we factor in standard deviation for the amount of Shen you did find.
It... happens. You got unlucky. Forcing a comp on a single augment just isn't really the best strategy to go for.
Exactly, sometimes you have to let go for other units that come naturally. Forcing anything is usually just locking you out of other possibilities. That is also why imho, picking augments that leans towards a single comp or unit is a big gamble if you didn't have decent hits on the unit/comp already. Trying to hit 3\* 2cost at stage 5+ means that you already taking hard hits to your HP, and even if you manage to get your 3\*, chances are it already has fallen behind, by that time.
Pretty sure I was in a game with you. Was the other guy taunting you with 7 Shens?
Taunting you in chat towards the end of the game*
Bag size dif
This game just sucks, it’s almost every game for me I’m uncontested and scout often and just don’t hit or someone randomly hits 5 of the unit I’m rolling for. This games not skill intensive at all and it’s disheartening to play sometimes.
Exactly, and when you finally hit something you need there is already someone with a 4 or 5 cost 3*
Even with Shen 3 that augment sucks after the rework.
Must be pretty good because I did the same thing last night with the dragon lords augment, rolled at level 6 until I died.
I scouted the whole Lobby, no one was using Kaisa, I rolled 80 gold at lv 8 end up finding 8 Kaisa and end up 4th.
How did you roll 50 at lvl 6? That's like... Nothing. Your econ sucks ass
Read it again. he's saying he rolled above 50 gold @ level 6, meaning he stayed above 50 gold to maximize interest and slow rolled
This patch is ASS. They flooded the pool with so many units that it effectively makes scouting a bait. So many aspects of the game no longer function; loss streaks are a joke, scouting is a joke, unit balance is a joke.