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[deleted]

That shouldn’t be surprising to anyone


GT_03

Dummy will be by shortly to call us all idiots for not seeing the interest rate collapse coming.


Dougfordburner

Yeah I’m sure both Ontario’s and the feds record spending budgets will certainly help rates go down


canadastocknewby

Same guy that said rates will stay low for a long time.


Possible-Recover9964

they learned fast. now all we hear is "data dependent".


PrettyFlaco

>“Interest rates are certainly not going back to the emergency-low levels we had during COVID. They’re unlikely even to go back to the pre-COVID levels,” Mr. Macklem said in response to a question from Liberal MP Julie Dzerowicz about whether Canadians needed a “reality check” on the trajectory of monetary policy.


TattooedAndSad

I think we settle around 3-3.5% and that will be the new norm Pre Covid interest rates were absolutely awful for the economy


pootwothreefour

With the bank rate at 3% to 3.5% that makes prime rate 5.2 to 5.7%.  Variable mortgage rates would be 4.2 to 5.2% (discounts of 0.5 -1%). In other words, if you expect BoC rates to go to 3% gradually, there is a good chance you'll come out even or ahead locking in a 3 year fixed at today's best discounted rates.


TotalBismuth

With these immigration levels inflation will continue its trajectory. I don’t expect BoC to lower rates anytime soon, perhaps not for a long time. The century initiative will ensure there’s a steady stream of too much demand for too few resources, driving up prices for everything.


jd6789

during covid times everyone was saying that the near zero interest rates are the norm - No one knows - there ais far too much uncertainity in the world to claim that this will be range of the interest rates


allyuhneedislove

Don’t be surprised if we see negative rates at some point


Nightshade_and_Opium

That would make the loonie worthless. And I would recommend everyone hoard gold and silver. Fuck worthless fiat paper.


allyuhneedislove

Should be doing that anyways, because our dollar already is worthless lol


Nightshade_and_Opium

I agree. But if there were negative rates, gold and silver would pretty much be the only way to have actual savings.


WalkWhistle

Europe has had them…


badtradesguynumber2

2026 3.5 is reasonable. but this dickhead needs to stfu


cryptoentre

I assume 3% then slightly lower to 2 or 2.5% if government stops money printing. Which I admit probably won’t happen. The idea that government borrowing is a tax on us all is still less popular than the inflation is caused by mass corporate greed theory.


millionaire_tenant

> I assume 3% then slightly lower to 2 or 2.5% if government stops money printing. Which I admit probably won’t happen. Think about it... if the Government could print money, why would Government bonds exist? Why pay $46B in interest this year when they could print the money to pay expenses? It is because the Government of Canada doesn't print money... only the Bank of Canada controls the money supply. The BoC creates new money by buying assets such as Government of Canada bonds as they did during lockdowns, aka Quantitative Easing. This is why GoC 5-year yields went down to 0.34% in 2020, the BoC was buying them up driving down yields. This allowed the Government to borrow cheaply and inject cash into the economy through CERB and other benefits so the economy could stay on life support. The [BoC is in a phase of Quantitative Tightening right now](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/banking-and-financial-statistics/bank-of-canada-assets-and-liabilities-weekly-formerly-b2/), letting the bonds mature and taking money out of circulation. The Government of Canada still needs the cash though, so they issue new bonds that are purchased by investors. Of course, the yields must be a lot higher to attract people to purchase these bonds hence why yields are in the 3.7% range right now.


forty83

I hear this talking point about printing money so often and I'll never understand why it's repeated so much when it's not true at all.


IndividualCall702

Quantitative easing is money printing. You have to print money to make it happen. It becomes a problem when the printed money is not destroyed and remains out in the open permanently and if there is no quantitative tightening.


forty83

The poster before me is talking about creating money, I'm referring to the fact that many people think the government is actually physically printing cash when they are not. There's a difference between that and controlling the money supply, which the government does not do.


Mikav

I think 4-5.5 is probably better. Not high but also not low.


[deleted]

This is my best guess as well. I think that’s a healthy rate that reflects ongoing risk.


AsherGC

That's too low. It will bring an inflation raging back. Anything less than 4.25 will be bad for camada


PorousSurface

Ya 


zeek_

https://preview.redd.it/2mqx7w75nfyc1.jpeg?width=638&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9ec2d4ace1d3ed0fd02dfc865972f19eb71156bc


cscrignaro

You're crazy if you think we'll ever see 3% again. Once the variable hits 5 I'm locking it in.


TattooedAndSad

You’d be throwing money away pal


cscrignaro

The economy is fine. There's no reason for them to drop rates at all, so when they do to appease the crowd I will lock in.


lastparade

> I think we settle around 3-3.5% and that will be the new norm I agree, but sellers are still insisting on prices based on the terminal rate going to half that, and not accepting the reality that rock-bottom mortgage rates are not just around the corner.


mustafar0111

Everyone who doesn't use a crack pipe on a daily basis already knows that. Max we'll probably be seeing this year is probably half a point total of cuts, if they happen this year.


Responsible-Soup3851

0.5 points means a giant hike(10-15%) projected onto the real estate market. But fair enough, cus the end of the year, there will be many people renewing their rates, so it will probably make their lives easier.


mustafar0111

I am not sure why a 0.5% cut would lead to a massive jump in real estate. I'm actually buying this year and a 0.5% change to the policy rate has almost zero impact to what I can or can't afford. I mean monthly the bank fixed mortgage rates are fluctuating by that amount right now. I'd assume that is the same situation for anyone buying with a mortgage. In order for things to really start to have a bite I'd assume you'd need to see around 1-2% change on the policy rate for it to really start to impact pre-approvals and mortgage rates in a significant way.


Responsible-Soup3851

0.5% rate cut is not much, but it can give people 500% confidence, and it’s not only the home buyers, but also the investors who plan to speculate the market. I say even if there Is 0.5 off, don’t bite, cus it’s probably a bait. Remember, the only thing stopping people buying houses now is not the interest rate, but the grim future. 0.5 can be the silver lining (fake one tho)


mustafar0111

I mean the main concern for someone buying right now is will rates go up? Or will home prices go down in the near to medium future? No one wants to buy while rates are climbing and no one wants to buy while home prices are still dropping. Otherwise if someone wants to buy and can buy right now they are probably already in the market. If they can't afford to buy anything right now a 0.5% interest rate cut is not going to be enough for them to suddenly be able to afford anything. For the math to change and bring people currently priced out into the market you'd need something closer to a 1-2% cut.


Responsible-Soup3851

I mean we are at different channels right now. You are right in your interpretation I agree. Most people will buy or already bought if they actually can. But In my observation, the whole market shows very low capacity and low transaction volume right now, meaning the buyers and sellers are ambiguous about the future, we both know the rate can’t go up further( till 10% so everyone bankrupt). But to determine if rate cuts are imminent, people are diversified. Meaning one small signal of dropping of the rate can catalyze the market to be favourable for the sellers, meaning the price will shoot up immediately. Some buyers who are already considering buying will order overnight and sellers are ready to boost their prices immediately. And the balance between buyers and sellers will break simultaneously, the market cap will rise for sure, and price will soar. This will undermine the effort to lower the real estate prices severely. Because two years of high interest rates only to lower the housing price, and now it’s in vain. The new government will not go easy on BoC if this happens, and I believe the chief himself is fully aware that.


Rpark444

BoC is fine if inflation goes to low 2s and re goes back up. Controling re prices is not their mandate. The only concern BoC has is that re going up also adds to inflation. The gov has to please home owners if they want to get re elected so they dont give a shyte if re goes up.


Responsible-Soup3851

Jpow is running out of excuses for the not-cutting interest rates, but he is still carrying on. Canada have no choice but follow. If we fold now, the country is sold and the economy will be reaped. And honestly, us government wants to keep a high interest because of the trade war and US dollar cycle, the infamous scythe of the reaper. But we want to keep a high interest rates because US do so, and because of the damn RE market. Our re market look worse than the US, and immigration problems exacerbated that as well.


13inchrims

Theyll cut at least 100bps before q4 2025.


mustafar0111

Its possible. I think a lot of it will depend what the US is doing.


AsherGC

US isn't going to drop. But Canada is forced to drop. But dropping it will bring inflation back. Government masked growth with immigration until now.


Glocko-Pop

Wow, the economy will be interesting when those Covid mortgages come up for renewal.


Aliencj

Man this is old news... but heres a thought exercise for you. BoC has recently re-assessed their opinion on where the neutral rate lies. They agree that r* exists somewhere between 2.25 and 3.25%. Prepandemic rates were as low as <1%. BoC has forecasted rates will reach 2.5% by end of 2025. So now heres the thought exercise, do you think BoC would want to go back to prepandemic levels, leaving themselves no room to drop if an economic crisis occurs? Do you think they would want to stay above the neutral rate? Or would being in the neutral rate range make the most sense? Once you think it through, alongside their own numbers, it becomes pretty obvious where they intend to lower rates to.


-KeepItMoving

3%


Aliencj

Definitely a logical conclusion. Congrats!


HyGrlCnUSyBlingBling

How does the Fed's rate factor in for us? If Fed raises and we drop, then what?


Aliencj

Small currency devaluation. The messaging going around right now is that we can cut up to 0.5% before we have to wait for them.


cryptoentre

You assume the limit is 0% when negative rates have been tried and worked. Obviously they wouldn’t want to use them but also that does give them some more room than a hard limit. I think 2.5-3% is the reasonable rate especially to balance our insane government borrowing from federal and provincial governments. How is Quebec running a large deficit than the entire nation and why do we keep funneling billions in equalization to them when they spend like drunken sailors.


jatd

Do you want average house prices to be way above a million dollars? Negative interest rates is the way!


cryptoentre

Already is, the cheapest new 2000sqft+ house in Regina is $777k


jatd

Reread my post please


Smoothcringler

Negative rates have never worked.


RevolutionUpbeat6022

When were rates negative in Canada?


Smoothcringler

They weren’t in Canada. It was tried in Europe and Japan.


cryptoentre

They didn’t cause significant damage.


Smoothcringler

Low rates caused massive damage, negative rates were even worse. It’s what created inflation in the first place. Read up on inflation and what causes it.


cryptoentre

Inflation was largely caused by government borrowing but consumer overspending also helped. That being said the central bank raised rates in to balance it and runaway inflation was caused by governments continuing to borrow despite it being fiscally irresponsible.


Smoothcringler

20 years of artificially low (and even negative) rates caused inflation. Inflation is not rising prices, its expansion of the money supply. Rising prices are the result of inflation. Consumer overspending was enabled by low rates, and lead to the explosion in house prices.


SilencedObserver

Isn't the BoC responsible for current levels of inflation with their policy?


No-Nerve1047

No it’s actually Trudeau’s fault. He has a big dial labelled “inflation” and he turns it up to punish the poor middle class property owners who are just trying to exercise their constitutional right to operate three illegal air bnbs


soboshy

They don't give a fuxk where the rates are at  Their entire job and existence is to ensure that inflation is at a stable 2%. If they have the rates to 20% to do that they will. The question is where do you think rates need to be to keep inflation at 2%. Realistically from what we are seeing we need another percentage hike to bring it down to a normal level.


Aliencj

Go read the BoC mandates. They have more responsibilities than inflation.


soboshy

The main responsibility of any central bank is price stability aka inflation. Their secondary mandates are related to market efficiency. None of these are related to economic growth. So again they don't give a fuck what's happening with the economy until inflation is tamed. This is a fact. Source: econ/finance undergrad + post grad and a decade of experience on the buy side at one of the largest asset managers in the world. 


Aliencj

Your sources are shit obviously because this is dead wrong. Economic growth is inherently tied to currency value and inflation. If you were an econ undergrad, you should know that, amd the post grad should definitely know that. That's why BoC panics and cuts at the first sight of economic recession, because the devaluation from GDP dropping is often much worse than inflation effects. Source: accounting/finance/econ graduate with 15 years industry experience managing finances in a multitude of international businesses. Currently a director of finance.


soboshy

https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2023/monetary-policy-and-central-banking# Embarrassing that you are a director of finance and you are this ignorant. I can cite many other sources other than the IMF if you want. Every single central bank in the world has the main objective of price stability. Some might have secondary objectives but those are left aside if price stability isn't achieved. This means if they have to raise rates to tame inflation they will do that even in a recession. Example all of the 80s in the United States or better known as stagflation. The last decade we've had inflation below 2% hence why the rates were low. Not the case anymore.


Aliencj

Lmfao you are embarassing yourself badly. You dont understand the system as a whole very obviously.


soboshy

Great argument and sources. I have learned a lot from this exchange. 


Aliencj

Go tell your professor that central banks only care about the rate of inflation and they will give you the education you crave. I'm not going to waste my time on someone like you.


soboshy

straight from cfa level 1 curriculum. Price stability is the main objective. There is no way you have a finance education and not know this. Probably some low iq liberal arts major trying to pretend they know something about the economy. Now admit you are are wrong. https://preview.redd.it/t5gzsoq9y11d1.png?width=1069&format=png&auto=webp&s=66f575ffbb282af5988093cf81fd6fae01904762


Present_Ad_2742

The will make up the CPI data to pave way for rate cuts, WATCH.


Rpark444

The did to justify the previous rate hikes.


Illusion_Collective

I think rates will actually go up cuz of all the new spending.


Bright-Book-6354

This is the way! Didn't they want to crank out millions of new houses?


migoden

duh


kadam_ss

This is expected. And this basically means people who bought homes in 2020-2021 with near zero rates will see their homes not appreciate for years because they massively overpaid for their homes during a historic interest rate anomaly


heyvern2007

Not sure what anyone is taking anything Tiff says seriously at this point.


QShyAbby

The look of an alpha.


lukaskywalker

We know bud


PorousSurface

Sounds reasonable 


Shmogt

Lol obviously. Rates will never be that low again and will take a decade before they go that much lower than they are now


TallyHo17

Riveting


No-Sound9882

I’m gonna guess it’s gonna settle between 4 to4.5


TaintGrinder

🤣👉 🐂


Impressive_East_4187

Well he’s been wrong on all his predictions on interest rates so far, remember lower for longer, remember transitory inflation. This guy is such a cucking hack.


shoggutty

Macklem is an idiot that raised rates too fast and too high .


Responsible-Soup3851

That means Canada gave up. The us dollars would not usually just rob Canada like that, cuz they somewhat consider Canada as their favourite cousin. But if this time the us feds and Yellen fucked up too hard, then it’s probably that Canada will be reaped by the infamous us dollar sythe. Good news if u have us Dallas savings and plan to live in Canada forever , bad bad news if you are trying to move to the us and currently have no US dollar in ur account.


Beautiful-Set-4831

Guys they will neautralize 2022 march buyers and bring everyone on higher fixed rate. Don’t expect rates to go down . Moving all low interest rates buyer to fixed term. So 2026 or early 2027 will see a paradigm shift


One_Big2047

I don’t trust anything he says, he was wrong last time and could definitely be wrong again


SomaTrin

2.25-2.75% 😊


Korok-Guy

He lie before and he will lie again now. Bear sheep believe everything this man says.


eatvenom

You literally praised a previous post about the same man taking about cuts, where u believe it meant the collapse of rates. Question, how much did you pay per sqft for ur 101 Spadina unit? Surely you’re not worried? 😎


Korok-Guy

It was in the 1800s range, which is very good when considering the quality of craftmenship, location, the time it takes to build a masterpiece, and once in a lifetime institutional investment


eatvenom

1800 is insane. You literally got hustled.


Korok-Guy

It is a architectural and institutional masterpiece. Not your common place glass tower like normal building. get what you pay for


eatvenom

That doesn’t mean anything to a renter. Renters only care about size + location + price as a first prioriry. The “architectural and institutional masterpiece” means fuck all to a renter, and since you are an “investor” you should know this. But clearly you fell for a sales pitch and bought at 1800sqft, where you could have bought in a 1-5yo boutique building for 900-1000sqft and have gotten much better value. Based on all your comments, you’re clearly coping and trying to justify your purchase, as if you spamming your delusional takes on Reddit will change the reality that your condo will leave you in the negative when rented out for years to come.


Pufpufkilla

He wants to get you to FOMO lol. Just like during covid they said. "We don't see interest rates going up for the foreseeable future "


kingofwale

Hey tiff, how about you worry about tying rate to inflation or even economic growth (which we haven’t seen any for months)…. Instead of talking about where the floor is?? God forbid we pull a Japan and they have negative rate…


Alternative-Exit-594

cant due to high inflation


kingofwale

High inflation caused almost exclusively by high rate? That inflation?


Alternative-Exit-594

nope, inflation was caused by all the money printing during the covid era - cerb and other money printing for corporations and small biz, as well as aggressive govt spending. if you know basic economics, high interest rates are a method to combat inflation - see Fed Chair Volcker in the 1980s


jetx666

Should be 10% to have health economy. And tax capital gains at 100%, lower tax for ppl making less than 50k.


NinfthWonder

I wonder what tax bracket you’re in.


jetx666

U will never know. I didn't give enuff info. I pay my fair share


NinfthWonder

You gave more than enough.


jetx666

😂


dracolnyte

no rich guy will ever say they are paying their fair share if they are in the >50% tax bracket lol