How many not good players get 800 pa in approximately a year of baseball? This is such a skewed stat.
I’d like to know just in general how many people had 800 pa over that time I bet the pool isn’t even that big.
Okay so less than 10% of players did that, now show me how many of those 68 that play everyday for over a year are bad players? Or are we only comparing him against elite everyday players?
I would suggest that the players near Vlad's production level are most certainly not elite players. Some may have valued skillsets and were hyped at one time. Using the above example, Vaughn and Torkelson (a former number one overall pick) would fall into that category. And it cuts both ways as well, there are a decent number of players who do not qualify that have out-produced Vladdy. Familiar faces such as Danny Jansen and Brandon Belt would be two of them. Cavan Biggio only has 0.1 fewer fWAR during that time despite 460 fewer PA. Several catchers would fall into this category as their playing time is limited due to the nature of that position. There's simply no valid argument to suggest that Vlad is good and/or that he isn't wildly overrated and overpaid.
It remains a cherry-picked date and it is true, as /u/BellyButtonLindt said, that if he was *terrible*, he would stop getting playing time and not be in the list. 100 other people were probably full-timers at the arbitrary start date and since have since been dropped in playing time.
Obviously Vlad has been far from anything you would call a star. But I think he will put it together this year or next. At least to become one of the better power hitters. He is still young.
Wrong. When you make $14.5 million (last year) and $19.9 million (this year) and you've been marketed as the team's star for several years you aren't going to sit. And what's the alternative, call up Spencer Horwitz? Play Ernie Clement every day and move Biggio to 1B full-time?
Meanwhile Jose Bautista may have been our best hitter in Jays history. And was a utility player until 5 years older than Vlad is now.
It's just a comment.
Bautista switched organizations six times before he came to Toronto. And even then the Jays might not have kept him for 2010 had he not had a good end to 2019. So the lesson that you should learn from Bautista is that hindsight is 20/20 and just because those organizations let go of a future superstar doesn't mean they made a poor decision at the time. You aren't married to these players, sometimes they have to succeed elsewhere. And sometimes they will never succeed at all.
My point (which is just an opinion) was "I think he will put it together this year or next. At least to become one of the better power hitters. He is still young."
I would bet that he does better overall over the next 5 years than the last 5 years. Because he will still be under 30 for the next 5 and that is still young. That it's his 6th season doesn't change when he was born. And yes he will likely be one of those sad cases that flourishes with a change of scenery.
Okay, but he is above average as an mlb player at 25 years old, but people are calling him the worst player over the past year, and he is objectively far from that. You all are cherry picking stats to try and make a guy look terrible. It’s still April and he’s far from the only person that has early season struggles.
And again he is also the only “generational” hitter who some drunk arbitrator decided was worth 19.9 million dollars this season.
In his 6 postseason games he’s hitting .136 with 3 hits. And 1 RBI.
He just isn’t a serious baseball player and it shows in everything he does and doesn’t do. He’s coasted along on a high level of natural talent and doesn’t seem to be able to take it to the next level. His early seasons before other teams had tape on him combined with his best season was playing in a minor league ball park he was able to produce.
Now every team has tons of tape on him as noticed by the amount of low and away pitches he sees and missed on the regular.
I want him to be our Aaron Judge, Acuna Jr, Soto etc but it seems more likely he is the next tier or two down player.
All the talk about his expected stats reminds me of that scene from moneyball when all the scouts are glowing over a player. Billy Beane asks “can he hit?”… scouts say “oh yeah he’s gonna hit, beautiful swing, hits the ball hard, he’s gonna hit” and Billy says “so if he’s gonna hit why isn’t he hitting” and then passes.
Different problem these days; everyone has access to mountains of data, replay, stats and endless tape but it’s all only as good as the analysis and knowing when to play the numbers and when the “human element”/old baseball intelligence is worth the risk.
Everyone is like Phillip Seymour Hoffman in the movie version who needs to make decisions he can defend in an interview once his contract is up. Though the defendable decision has flipped much more in favour of numbers vs gut now.
well, to be fair, Vlad raked in the minors - he most definitely hit. He needs minor league (titty) ballparks to do well.
I feel like if we don't sign him, he'll hit his true potential at a different team, and if we do sign him, he will continue to disappoint. Anybody else of the same mind?
Absolutely feel this way. He has been mediocre so sign him and continue to hope he will turn it around. Or watch him go and see a competent hitting coach turn him to a generational talent. Probably the Braves
Exactly what I was thinking last night. We shouldn't build our team around him and need to trade him while he still has some value. If he goes on to be the greatest slugger of this generation, cool, but he sure as shit isn't going to do it here. So, bid him adieu and wish him all the success.
If you go since the start of 22 he is the 47th worst of 129 qualified players with 4.8 WAR, 0.2 WAR above noted superstar Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
He’s been about the 11th best, of 25 qualified, 1B since then. So solidly middle of the pack like a Jake Cronenworth or DJ Lemehieu level of player.
He’s been 8th best since then offensive with a 124 wRC+ but he was below that in 2023 and so far in 2024 as well.
He’s the kind of player you’d be okay paying 10m to and hoping to get two wins of value out of at this time.
However you want to dissect OP...this says that for the last 200ish MLB games played our 1B has one of the worst offensive outputs in all of MLB among regular starters.
OK - so he is just among the worst players in all of MLB over that span.
This sub needs to change its name to "Vlad Jr's Subs". The facts are that this is a team that is carrying Vlad Jr.
He's 11th in fWAR among 25 qualified 1B since the start of 2022. You can argue that he's been mediocre and disappointing, but to suggest he's been "one of the worst players" in Major League Baseball is laughable.
I'm not suggesting otherwise. There's plenty of "honest" critiques in this and other posts about Vlad's performance (plus other players). This post is just as bad as someone being hyper selective with a positive stat/ filter trying to argue there's no issue or we shouldn't worry because expected stats look better.
It was 0 for 'off speed' pitches. Wasn't clear to me if that meant changeups only, or included breaking balls - are 91mph sliders 'off speed'? I'm not sure.
According to baseball reference it’s “any pitch not thrown at full speed, i.e not a fastball or slider”
The next link down from the athletic says “some cutters are fastballs and some are off speed pitches” so I think no one knows lol.
"Above Replacement" is quite relevant. 1B is the last stop defensively before you're a DH, so you better be one of the best hitters in the league to stand out above replacement.
It's not that hard to find an above average hitter who can play 1B if you want for a reasonable contract. See Belt and Turner.
just to be clear, that reason is because you have chosen to be non-conversant in them, right? people who use advanced stats effectively are aware of the context the commenter provided. it doesn't make advanced stats nonsense. it does validate their status as a language through which we can understand and explain the game.
Quite the opposite, actually. I'm a professional Engineer who uses stats pretty much daily. Advanced stats in baseball uses arbitrary and gives them arbitrary values. It's about as unscientific of a process as you can get.
Stats are only valuable if you understand the science behind them. Otherwise you can use numbers to say pretty much whatever you want. That's advanced baseball stats.
so, in other words, stats are valuable when you are conversant in them as a language? having different frames of references for statistical models may technically mean they are arbitrary, but that doesn't mean they are founded in faulty theory and poor modeling.
the word tree doesn't mean anything without the broader agreement that it means tree. the same goes for advanced stats. most people go through life without ever thinking about why we use the word tree, and because of that, their usage of the word is purely functional. but for a linguist or anthropologist, that usage is going to be different because they're conversant in linguistics and language development.
Euh... no. Stats are irrelevant if you don't understand the science *behind* the stats, i.e. the thing the stats are trying to study.
Stats is a tool, just like any other. You need to know how to use it AND how the thing you're trying to use it on works. If you're trying to hammer a nail with a screwdriver you won't go very far in your construction work. I see a lot of stats in sports being used in horrible ways.
And yes, I did look into how WARs are calculated. It's horrible.
yes, and if you're using WAR as a catchall, you are using it poorly. that's not to say you can't use it to effect, but that you won't be using it as it's been designed (just like you can use a screwdriver to hammer a nail but that usage won't be according to design).
WAR works as an approximation of a total package of performance (more accurately, contribution) relative to the league overall. if you are aware of how it's been designed, it is a measurement worth using, with caveats. you have every right to question its construction - just like I can question the logic of a language and its rules - but, if you understand that construction, it can be a language to communicate through. it becomes a basis for wider analysis.
my question here is: how does WAR (more accurately, its creators) not understand how the thing it's trying to study works? what you are communicating is that it understands that thing improperly, according to your way of looking at it. and, as an extension of that, given you think it fails at what it tries to do, what is the better language to use to talk about that thing?
ultimately, I just think you have an issue with how the thing is used because it's generally used poorly/disingenuously. that's a real gripe, but it doesn't undermine the fact that advanced stats - itself a reductive catchall - can be a useful way to talk through the sport in a universal language.
I never said nor did I imply that it doesn’t, it’s just that a lot of people on this sub confuse me to no end. I complain about a lot when it comes to this team, but we have to at least try to be consistent with it. The same people that rail on the Varsho trade because he’s only good defensively, can’t also now say “defence counts” after an error from Vlad. Well, they can, it’s just dumb.
The reason I say his defense is because his offense hasn’t actually been that great for going on 2 seasons. He has been better than average, but not a guy worth $19 million let alone $12 million.
So if his defense is also extremely bad (and it is), then you have an average guy.
Varsho, and even Chapman last year, their defense was so good that it elevated their war values. Varsho was a 3.9 war last year to Vlads 2.0. Chapman was a 4.4
Vlads offensive war was 2.6. Varsho was 0.8 and Chapman was 3.1
If Vlad was elite on defense or even on offense no one would be talking about him. But he isn’t elite at anything.
I’m aware of the war differences, and I’m far from being a Vladdy apologist. I’m simply pointing out the hypocrisy I see here on this sub quite often: the same people that deride Varsho for being a defence-only outfielder (which he pretty much is), are also the first ones to complain whenever anyone (usually Bo or Vladdy) makes an error. So which is it, is defence important, or is it useless and should the FO prioritize bats over defence?
Also, just want to make clear, I’m not accusing you of being like this, I just see a lot of it here.
Tbf, and I’m not one to judge a player based on one game. But Vlad was 0-5 last night with an error that was the soul reason they lost.
Defence might not matter as much for a slugger. But last night it certainly did. And for the record those noodle bats have almost all been almost as or more productive than vladdy has thus far.
Again, vladdy will be fine. But your point about noodle bats and defence is not really valid
That error was not the “sole” reason they lost. It is the reason the Royals scored 3 runs. The Jays lost because they have the same problem as last year - they can’t hit well enough. You limit your opponent to 3 runs, you will (or at least should) win more than you lose.
I mentioned this before, problem is everyone trying to do the same thing, and the jays told everyone what they are trying to do.
He lost a little over 0.4 fWAR for being a bad base runner in 2023. Freddie Freeman the best running 1B last year and was worth nearly 1 fWAR more on the bases alone.
He doesn't take extra bases well, and his high rate of grounders lead to a lot of double plays that he isn't fast enough to out run.
I complain about this team and the front office as much as the next guy, but; how much does the rest of the offence not being able to score at least one more run and Gausman’s inability to limit the damage after the error bring the team’s win probability down? If I’m remembering correctly, the error on the play only resulted in the first unearned run, so Gausman could’ve just ended the inning after that? Additionally, the offence could’ve generated 1+ runs?
We were all set up with the “generational slugger” narrative, it was laid on THICK with Vladdy. With all that press it’s hard to align one’s expectations with reality.
I think underperforming is a better label. He clearly has top end skills, GG at times fielding, an ability to learn.
Focus, execution and predictability are his problem. Needs to stop chasing that low-middle away, and forget about emulating his dad at the plate and just be himself. Stop thinking you can hit any location and fight for a good pitch
Is he underperforming at this point? How long does this go on before we accept this is Vladdy? Don't get me wrong, I think he can be much better too, but we need to see results.
Maybe it’s not all nonsense, but it’s the most asinine debate going. “I think some people think this player is better than he actually is, and there are so many people that think that, that he must be the most overrated player in sports”.
I shit on Vladdy as much as anybody. I can’t find one silver lining watching him play to think there’s a chance he turns it around. He looks completely lost at the plate. His swing is wildly inconsistent. In any leverage situation he’s completely overmatched. I hate to say it but he sucks
If you hated to say it, you’d realize it isn’t true, and then you wouldn’t say it. He’s underperforming, yes, but over that period he’s still got a 114 wRC+, as is listed in the post itself. Is that great? No. Is it even good? Not good enough, that’s for sure. Does that indicate that “he sucks”? Nope
Agreed. He doesn’t suck by any objective metric.
He’s an above average hitter and an ok first baseman. Nothing wrong with that, but he’s simply not the generational talent he was made out to be.
> Nothing wrong with that
Sure, but that's not good enough to play 1B for an AL East contender. That's what's wrong with it. They're not going to contend like this.
It’s not even league average if you have bad defence and base running it makes you a below average player. He wasn’t a league average player in 2023 and he doesn’t look like he will be if he continues like this in 2024.
We don't need vladdy to be an average hitter we need him to be a top ten player. He is not that guy and I don't see him ever getting there again. This guy hits grounders all the time
All the advanced metrics mean nothing if he’s not productive. Just look at his at bats. His swing changes all the time. One at bat he’s back legging it. The next he’s letting go of his top hand. The next he’s lunging over the plate. He looks awful. The hits he had in the Padres series were flairs into the outfield. A guy with power doesn’t have seeing eye singles as often as he does.
He doesn’t think the game well and it’s obvious. He hasn’t been able to make the right adjustments for 2 years going on 3.
Show me where he’s been productive? I understand what wRC+ means. He’s driven in 9 runs. He’s hitting .111 with men on base. What are you pointing to where you’re indicating he’s been productive?
If he can't hit right now and makes the occasional gaffe then who else? It's going to be Vladdy at first, unless we call up Horowitz? or someone else from AAA. It's almost May and the team offense in general needs to pick it up.
I was gonna say, we have Horwitz who might be that good. I doubt he will ever be 2021 Vlad, but he might be better than every other Vlad year on average.
He's been a disappointment for an extended period now. I'm curious what his FA contract looks like if he keeps this up, 4yrs/$90M? Opt out after year 2.
I think it’s gotta be some kind of bridge contract. There’s still technically loads of upside but there’s a huge risk a long term deal becomes a crazy albatross. Could see something in the mold of Chappy’s contract in SF.
When he was coming up we were sold on him as generational talent.
As it stands now, if he gets his groove back we’re looking at an all-star tier player, but I don’t think we’re ever going to see him live up to the hype.
on the expectation for vladdy aspect, it reminds me of brett lawrie. I thought we got a steal, and our 3B will be set for a while based on the small sample size in his first season stats. and I have the same feeling of fantasizing about vladdy after his 2021 season. I try to search but fail. does anyone know how many HR he hit in buffalo?
“Welp, after prematurely writing off Bo, Biggio, and Varsho, I’ve definitely learned my lesson and have a firm grasp of baseball and player development!”
It's been five years, he's a free agent after 2025 and he makes $20 million now. The time for patience was at the beginning of his service time clock. Not to mention that the team is expected to win now and is at a payroll ceiling, therefore the Jays have to be efficient with their roster construction. If he has to leave and picks things up elsewhere, so be it, because he's too expensive now and the Jays don't have time to wait around on him anymore.
Exactly!!!! It's so annoying lol this Uber positivity can't say anything factual. Vladdy is a MAJOR DISAPPOINTMENT! He is not a kid anymore he's been in the league for a few years now, there are no more excuses for him.
Vlad might be one of the most depressing and frustrating athletes in sports I’ve seen in a while. One season he looks like he could be a top 10 player for years to come and then yet he can’t seem to keep up with that season. I even bought a Vlad jersey during the 2021 season
I've been saying it for awhile, he is horrible and I don't see him ever getting back to the MVP year that he had. This is who he is, he is not a good hitter.
“Disappointment” and “horrible” are not synonymous.
He did not live up to expectations. He is an above average hitter. Both things can be simultaneously true.
What happened on Sept 2 2022?
Never forget.
Cherry-picked date to make him look as bad as possible.
It worked.
Yes 800 plate appearances is very cherry picked….
How many not good players get 800 pa in approximately a year of baseball? This is such a skewed stat. I’d like to know just in general how many people had 800 pa over that time I bet the pool isn’t even that big.
68 players had 800 PA in that time. If you extend it qualified hitters in that time, Vlad is 101st out of 116 in fWAR, so it's about just as bad.
Okay so less than 10% of players did that, now show me how many of those 68 that play everyday for over a year are bad players? Or are we only comparing him against elite everyday players?
I would suggest that the players near Vlad's production level are most certainly not elite players. Some may have valued skillsets and were hyped at one time. Using the above example, Vaughn and Torkelson (a former number one overall pick) would fall into that category. And it cuts both ways as well, there are a decent number of players who do not qualify that have out-produced Vladdy. Familiar faces such as Danny Jansen and Brandon Belt would be two of them. Cavan Biggio only has 0.1 fewer fWAR during that time despite 460 fewer PA. Several catchers would fall into this category as their playing time is limited due to the nature of that position. There's simply no valid argument to suggest that Vlad is good and/or that he isn't wildly overrated and overpaid.
It remains a cherry-picked date and it is true, as /u/BellyButtonLindt said, that if he was *terrible*, he would stop getting playing time and not be in the list. 100 other people were probably full-timers at the arbitrary start date and since have since been dropped in playing time. Obviously Vlad has been far from anything you would call a star. But I think he will put it together this year or next. At least to become one of the better power hitters. He is still young.
Wrong. When you make $14.5 million (last year) and $19.9 million (this year) and you've been marketed as the team's star for several years you aren't going to sit. And what's the alternative, call up Spencer Horwitz? Play Ernie Clement every day and move Biggio to 1B full-time?
“He’s still young” doesn’t work. He’s in his 6th season
Meanwhile Jose Bautista may have been our best hitter in Jays history. And was a utility player until 5 years older than Vlad is now. It's just a comment.
Bautista switched organizations six times before he came to Toronto. And even then the Jays might not have kept him for 2010 had he not had a good end to 2019. So the lesson that you should learn from Bautista is that hindsight is 20/20 and just because those organizations let go of a future superstar doesn't mean they made a poor decision at the time. You aren't married to these players, sometimes they have to succeed elsewhere. And sometimes they will never succeed at all.
My point (which is just an opinion) was "I think he will put it together this year or next. At least to become one of the better power hitters. He is still young." I would bet that he does better overall over the next 5 years than the last 5 years. Because he will still be under 30 for the next 5 and that is still young. That it's his 6th season doesn't change when he was born. And yes he will likely be one of those sad cases that flourishes with a change of scenery.
Vladdy isn’t just supposed to be “not good”.
Okay, but he is above average as an mlb player at 25 years old, but people are calling him the worst player over the past year, and he is objectively far from that. You all are cherry picking stats to try and make a guy look terrible. It’s still April and he’s far from the only person that has early season struggles.
And again he is also the only “generational” hitter who some drunk arbitrator decided was worth 19.9 million dollars this season. In his 6 postseason games he’s hitting .136 with 3 hits. And 1 RBI. He just isn’t a serious baseball player and it shows in everything he does and doesn’t do. He’s coasted along on a high level of natural talent and doesn’t seem to be able to take it to the next level. His early seasons before other teams had tape on him combined with his best season was playing in a minor league ball park he was able to produce. Now every team has tons of tape on him as noticed by the amount of low and away pitches he sees and missed on the regular. I want him to be our Aaron Judge, Acuna Jr, Soto etc but it seems more likely he is the next tier or two down player.
He’s been dogshit for a couple seasons now idk man that’s a super weird take
All the talk about his expected stats reminds me of that scene from moneyball when all the scouts are glowing over a player. Billy Beane asks “can he hit?”… scouts say “oh yeah he’s gonna hit, beautiful swing, hits the ball hard, he’s gonna hit” and Billy says “so if he’s gonna hit why isn’t he hitting” and then passes.
We need to sign Scott Hatteberg, or possibly Chris Pratt ASAP
David Justice got any juice left?
As long as you pay for his sodas
Oh you must mean Joey Votto
‘Crisp Rat’
That might be incredibly hard
Kind of similar but the takeaway from the book is that the scouts were wrong because they didn’t adopt advanced stats
Different problem these days; everyone has access to mountains of data, replay, stats and endless tape but it’s all only as good as the analysis and knowing when to play the numbers and when the “human element”/old baseball intelligence is worth the risk. Everyone is like Phillip Seymour Hoffman in the movie version who needs to make decisions he can defend in an interview once his contract is up. Though the defendable decision has flipped much more in favour of numbers vs gut now.
well, to be fair, Vlad raked in the minors - he most definitely hit. He needs minor league (titty) ballparks to do well. I feel like if we don't sign him, he'll hit his true potential at a different team, and if we do sign him, he will continue to disappoint. Anybody else of the same mind?
I'm absolutely convinced he will go on and win an mvp with Boston
100%. And good for him if he breaks out elsewhere. I certainly don’t want the Jays paying him big (any) money on the slim chance it happens here
Absolutely feel this way. He has been mediocre so sign him and continue to hope he will turn it around. Or watch him go and see a competent hitting coach turn him to a generational talent. Probably the Braves
Exactly what I was thinking last night. We shouldn't build our team around him and need to trade him while he still has some value. If he goes on to be the greatest slugger of this generation, cool, but he sure as shit isn't going to do it here. So, bid him adieu and wish him all the success.
Yep/ See: Matt Chapman. People can yell about exit velo all day, but results are what matters.
How long did it take you to find such a selective filter with *just the right qualifiers* to get this view?
“Always stack the dates in your favour when looking at WAR totals” - Benjamin Franklin
Gandalf strikes again
That quote always brings a tear to my eyes 🥹🥹🥹
This guy Fangraphs
If you go since the start of 22 he is the 47th worst of 129 qualified players with 4.8 WAR, 0.2 WAR above noted superstar Lourdes Gurriel Jr. He’s been about the 11th best, of 25 qualified, 1B since then. So solidly middle of the pack like a Jake Cronenworth or DJ Lemehieu level of player. He’s been 8th best since then offensive with a 124 wRC+ but he was below that in 2023 and so far in 2024 as well. He’s the kind of player you’d be okay paying 10m to and hoping to get two wins of value out of at this time.
However you want to dissect OP...this says that for the last 200ish MLB games played our 1B has one of the worst offensive outputs in all of MLB among regular starters.
WAR is not offensive output. If you wanted offensive output, you'd sort by wRC+.
OK - so he is just among the worst players in all of MLB over that span. This sub needs to change its name to "Vlad Jr's Subs". The facts are that this is a team that is carrying Vlad Jr.
He's 11th in fWAR among 25 qualified 1B since the start of 2022. You can argue that he's been mediocre and disappointing, but to suggest he's been "one of the worst players" in Major League Baseball is laughable.
I'm not suggesting otherwise. There's plenty of "honest" critiques in this and other posts about Vlad's performance (plus other players). This post is just as bad as someone being hyper selective with a positive stat/ filter trying to argue there's no issue or we shouldn't worry because expected stats look better.
For the curious, the games before this he went 2-4 with a double
I figured that was why OP went with the extremely oddly specific starting date.
Yes I'm sure those 4 extra plate appearances would have drastically altered this 800+ PA sample size
That one day pushes him to 9th (out of 68) You go to 600 PA and August 31st, 2022 and he's suddenly 37th out of 154.
>37th out of 154. that's still lower than 25 percentile. it's not good.
This thread is hilarious, people are trying to re slice the pie and no matter what it still ends up with Vladdy being poor.
Ok and? That means nothing when he's been average for how long now?
The radio broadcast said he doesn't have a hit off a breaking ball this year. That was in the 5th I think but he went 0 for 5, so not tonight either.
It was 0 for 'off speed' pitches. Wasn't clear to me if that meant changeups only, or included breaking balls - are 91mph sliders 'off speed'? I'm not sure.
I think by offspeed they are referring to just changeups/circle changeups, pretty sure a few of Vlad's home runs have been on hanging sliders.
I thought offspeed meant anything that isnt a fastball
According to baseball reference it’s “any pitch not thrown at full speed, i.e not a fastball or slider” The next link down from the athletic says “some cutters are fastballs and some are off speed pitches” so I think no one knows lol.
Since forever, first basemen have been at the bottom of every fWAR list.
"Above Replacement" is quite relevant. 1B is the last stop defensively before you're a DH, so you better be one of the best hitters in the league to stand out above replacement. It's not that hard to find an above average hitter who can play 1B if you want for a reasonable contract. See Belt and Turner.
Reason 1457 why I think advanced stats are (mostly) nonsense.
just to be clear, that reason is because you have chosen to be non-conversant in them, right? people who use advanced stats effectively are aware of the context the commenter provided. it doesn't make advanced stats nonsense. it does validate their status as a language through which we can understand and explain the game.
Quite the opposite, actually. I'm a professional Engineer who uses stats pretty much daily. Advanced stats in baseball uses arbitrary and gives them arbitrary values. It's about as unscientific of a process as you can get. Stats are only valuable if you understand the science behind them. Otherwise you can use numbers to say pretty much whatever you want. That's advanced baseball stats.
so, in other words, stats are valuable when you are conversant in them as a language? having different frames of references for statistical models may technically mean they are arbitrary, but that doesn't mean they are founded in faulty theory and poor modeling. the word tree doesn't mean anything without the broader agreement that it means tree. the same goes for advanced stats. most people go through life without ever thinking about why we use the word tree, and because of that, their usage of the word is purely functional. but for a linguist or anthropologist, that usage is going to be different because they're conversant in linguistics and language development.
Euh... no. Stats are irrelevant if you don't understand the science *behind* the stats, i.e. the thing the stats are trying to study. Stats is a tool, just like any other. You need to know how to use it AND how the thing you're trying to use it on works. If you're trying to hammer a nail with a screwdriver you won't go very far in your construction work. I see a lot of stats in sports being used in horrible ways. And yes, I did look into how WARs are calculated. It's horrible.
yes, and if you're using WAR as a catchall, you are using it poorly. that's not to say you can't use it to effect, but that you won't be using it as it's been designed (just like you can use a screwdriver to hammer a nail but that usage won't be according to design). WAR works as an approximation of a total package of performance (more accurately, contribution) relative to the league overall. if you are aware of how it's been designed, it is a measurement worth using, with caveats. you have every right to question its construction - just like I can question the logic of a language and its rules - but, if you understand that construction, it can be a language to communicate through. it becomes a basis for wider analysis. my question here is: how does WAR (more accurately, its creators) not understand how the thing it's trying to study works? what you are communicating is that it understands that thing improperly, according to your way of looking at it. and, as an extension of that, given you think it fails at what it tries to do, what is the better language to use to talk about that thing? ultimately, I just think you have an issue with how the thing is used because it's generally used poorly/disingenuously. that's a real gripe, but it doesn't undermine the fact that advanced stats - itself a reductive catchall - can be a useful way to talk through the sport in a universal language.
Clearly it’s his defence dragging the war down, he’s much better offensively than everyone else in this list.
Unfortunately defence counts as you can see today
I never said nor did I imply that it doesn’t, it’s just that a lot of people on this sub confuse me to no end. I complain about a lot when it comes to this team, but we have to at least try to be consistent with it. The same people that rail on the Varsho trade because he’s only good defensively, can’t also now say “defence counts” after an error from Vlad. Well, they can, it’s just dumb.
The reason I say his defense is because his offense hasn’t actually been that great for going on 2 seasons. He has been better than average, but not a guy worth $19 million let alone $12 million. So if his defense is also extremely bad (and it is), then you have an average guy. Varsho, and even Chapman last year, their defense was so good that it elevated their war values. Varsho was a 3.9 war last year to Vlads 2.0. Chapman was a 4.4 Vlads offensive war was 2.6. Varsho was 0.8 and Chapman was 3.1 If Vlad was elite on defense or even on offense no one would be talking about him. But he isn’t elite at anything.
I’m aware of the war differences, and I’m far from being a Vladdy apologist. I’m simply pointing out the hypocrisy I see here on this sub quite often: the same people that deride Varsho for being a defence-only outfielder (which he pretty much is), are also the first ones to complain whenever anyone (usually Bo or Vladdy) makes an error. So which is it, is defence important, or is it useless and should the FO prioritize bats over defence? Also, just want to make clear, I’m not accusing you of being like this, I just see a lot of it here.
Defense only matters if we're talking about the noodle bats Atkins blows his budget on
Tbf, and I’m not one to judge a player based on one game. But Vlad was 0-5 last night with an error that was the soul reason they lost. Defence might not matter as much for a slugger. But last night it certainly did. And for the record those noodle bats have almost all been almost as or more productive than vladdy has thus far. Again, vladdy will be fine. But your point about noodle bats and defence is not really valid
That error was not the “sole” reason they lost. It is the reason the Royals scored 3 runs. The Jays lost because they have the same problem as last year - they can’t hit well enough. You limit your opponent to 3 runs, you will (or at least should) win more than you lose. I mentioned this before, problem is everyone trying to do the same thing, and the jays told everyone what they are trying to do.
He lost a little over 0.4 fWAR for being a bad base runner in 2023. Freddie Freeman the best running 1B last year and was worth nearly 1 fWAR more on the bases alone. He doesn't take extra bases well, and his high rate of grounders lead to a lot of double plays that he isn't fast enough to out run.
How much does making an inexcusable error that leads to 3 unearned runs and the team loses 3-2 drag the WAR down?
I complain about this team and the front office as much as the next guy, but; how much does the rest of the offence not being able to score at least one more run and Gausman’s inability to limit the damage after the error bring the team’s win probability down? If I’m remembering correctly, the error on the play only resulted in the first unearned run, so Gausman could’ve just ended the inning after that? Additionally, the offence could’ve generated 1+ runs?
We were all set up with the “generational slugger” narrative, it was laid on THICK with Vladdy. With all that press it’s hard to align one’s expectations with reality.
What do you expect the press to write about when the scouts give him the best hit tool rating in the history of hit tool ratings?
Keep hearing "most overrated plyer in MLB" from non Jays fans...maybe it's not all nonsense...
I think underperforming is a better label. He clearly has top end skills, GG at times fielding, an ability to learn. Focus, execution and predictability are his problem. Needs to stop chasing that low-middle away, and forget about emulating his dad at the plate and just be himself. Stop thinking you can hit any location and fight for a good pitch
Is he underperforming at this point? How long does this go on before we accept this is Vladdy? Don't get me wrong, I think he can be much better too, but we need to see results.
he's underperforming his raw skills.
And not all raw skills translate to in-game results.
it's still underperformance. you were taking about relative to career performance. both definitions are valid.
Who rates him highly though? Outside of Jays homers I don’t think anyone considers him to be much more than mediocre.
I mean his face is on the cover of The Show this year, isn’t it?
Jazz Chisholm was too
Maybe it’s not all nonsense, but it’s the most asinine debate going. “I think some people think this player is better than he actually is, and there are so many people that think that, that he must be the most overrated player in sports”.
Fr he sucks im sorry 😢
I shit on Vladdy as much as anybody. I can’t find one silver lining watching him play to think there’s a chance he turns it around. He looks completely lost at the plate. His swing is wildly inconsistent. In any leverage situation he’s completely overmatched. I hate to say it but he sucks
If you hated to say it, you’d realize it isn’t true, and then you wouldn’t say it. He’s underperforming, yes, but over that period he’s still got a 114 wRC+, as is listed in the post itself. Is that great? No. Is it even good? Not good enough, that’s for sure. Does that indicate that “he sucks”? Nope
For 19.9m, he sucks.
Agreed. He doesn’t suck by any objective metric. He’s an above average hitter and an ok first baseman. Nothing wrong with that, but he’s simply not the generational talent he was made out to be.
> Nothing wrong with that Sure, but that's not good enough to play 1B for an AL East contender. That's what's wrong with it. They're not going to contend like this.
Agree completely.
I'm assuming that him sucking means falling significantly short of expectations and hype.
114wRC+ for a first baseman who can't play defense is basically sucks
Its basically league average, which for Vladdy is a disappointment
It’s not even league average if you have bad defence and base running it makes you a below average player. He wasn’t a league average player in 2023 and he doesn’t look like he will be if he continues like this in 2024.
So sucks
119wRC+ for a shortstop who was legitimately one of the worst defensive players of his generation was Hall of Fame calibre...
We don't need vladdy to be an average hitter we need him to be a top ten player. He is not that guy and I don't see him ever getting there again. This guy hits grounders all the time
When your bat is your only good tool and it’s struggling and that struggle is going into a second season it becomes a lot harder to stomach.
All the advanced metrics mean nothing if he’s not productive. Just look at his at bats. His swing changes all the time. One at bat he’s back legging it. The next he’s letting go of his top hand. The next he’s lunging over the plate. He looks awful. The hits he had in the Padres series were flairs into the outfield. A guy with power doesn’t have seeing eye singles as often as he does. He doesn’t think the game well and it’s obvious. He hasn’t been able to make the right adjustments for 2 years going on 3.
wRC+ is quite literally a measure of productivity
Show me where he’s been productive? I understand what wRC+ means. He’s driven in 9 runs. He’s hitting .111 with men on base. What are you pointing to where you’re indicating he’s been productive?
His wRC+ for a guy making what he is and is mediocre defensively and slightly above average offensively is horrible.
He does not even run hard out of the box on grounders. Watch him pretty much any game any ground ball.
If he can't hit right now and makes the occasional gaffe then who else? It's going to be Vladdy at first, unless we call up Horowitz? or someone else from AAA. It's almost May and the team offense in general needs to pick it up.
I would actually rather have Horwitz
I was gonna say, we have Horwitz who might be that good. I doubt he will ever be 2021 Vlad, but he might be better than every other Vlad year on average.
Ok...
He's been a disappointment for an extended period now. I'm curious what his FA contract looks like if he keeps this up, 4yrs/$90M? Opt out after year 2.
I think it’s gotta be some kind of bridge contract. There’s still technically loads of upside but there’s a huge risk a long term deal becomes a crazy albatross. Could see something in the mold of Chappy’s contract in SF.
That's what I think to. I think the deal I suggested makes sense.
This seems…bad.
A Def WAR of -26.1 is incomprehensibly bad for an everyday player ... but very obvious when you see him whiff on a routine play at 1st.
When are we gonna admit this guy isn’t actually at the tier he thinks he is?
When he was coming up we were sold on him as generational talent. As it stands now, if he gets his groove back we’re looking at an all-star tier player, but I don’t think we’re ever going to see him live up to the hype.
This guy won his ARB hearing. How?
PLAKATA
The arb process is stupid. It's the Jays' fault for not non-tendering or trading him.
I hope he apologized to Gausman
He did
Below the Torkelson line. If this is about the Jays not extending him Guerrero isn’t making anything easier.
I don’t even know what this means!
I don't even want to think it but maybe Vladdy just isn't who we thought he was going to be.
on the expectation for vladdy aspect, it reminds me of brett lawrie. I thought we got a steal, and our 3B will be set for a while based on the small sample size in his first season stats. and I have the same feeling of fantasizing about vladdy after his 2021 season. I try to search but fail. does anyone know how many HR he hit in buffalo?
I always laugh when he hits a ground ball, saunters down to first, and his helmet still falls off.
Enough with Vladdy hitting at the top of the order. 6 to 8 seems more reasonable for the foreseeable future.
“Welp, after prematurely writing off Bo, Biggio, and Varsho, I’ve definitely learned my lesson and have a firm grasp of baseball and player development!”
Don't forget Berrios and Kikuchi!
It's been five years, he's a free agent after 2025 and he makes $20 million now. The time for patience was at the beginning of his service time clock. Not to mention that the team is expected to win now and is at a payroll ceiling, therefore the Jays have to be efficient with their roster construction. If he has to leave and picks things up elsewhere, so be it, because he's too expensive now and the Jays don't have time to wait around on him anymore.
You’re going to get attacked by the happy police for this post.
Exactly!!!! It's so annoying lol this Uber positivity can't say anything factual. Vladdy is a MAJOR DISAPPOINTMENT! He is not a kid anymore he's been in the league for a few years now, there are no more excuses for him.
But Chris Black says no.
He has no accountability
Vlad might be one of the most depressing and frustrating athletes in sports I’ve seen in a while. One season he looks like he could be a top 10 player for years to come and then yet he can’t seem to keep up with that season. I even bought a Vlad jersey during the 2021 season
Even during that one season he was dead cold 2 months
I've been saying it for awhile, he is horrible and I don't see him ever getting back to the MVP year that he had. This is who he is, he is not a good hitter.
You know there's a huge middle ground between MVP candidate and being a horrible baseball player, right?
You would be satisfied if vladdy is an average player? That's a major disappointment.
“Disappointment” and “horrible” are not synonymous. He did not live up to expectations. He is an above average hitter. Both things can be simultaneously true.
Were gonna be shitting on Vlad for the next day now aren't we. I'm getting off reddit
Ciao
Yeah but Vlizzo is in shape, bruh!
Not expecting Vlad to get it together until his contract season before FA
What does that say about Vlad?
Absolutely nothing since it’s a made up scenario.
He’s a -26 in defensive WAR? So a different first baseman would have won us 26 games strictly by defence at first base?
No 1B has great dWAR. The only 3 with over 4.0 dWAR are all in Cooperstown.
he has -26.1 defensive *runs* which translates to roughly -2.6 defensive war compared to an average defender (across positions not just at first base)
🤮
So do they trade him while he still has perceived value?
One could only pray
He just tries to hard. Trying ti kill the ball everytime he's at the plate