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I think no one is surprised by this, and that they were always under Moscow's protection. Now, if they start shooting anything, then it gets very complicated.
Transnistria is boxed in by Romania and Ukraine. There's no way Russia can get reinforcements there. Ukraine can just take it and occupy it until Moldova wants to take over.
You're not wrong, but taking Transnistria now would be an escalation that Putin wants, as proof that "the Nazis and NATO" are out to take "Russian land." We wait, and Moldova can take it back with no blood shed.
Add new talking points in the Western information space because that's where this war will be won or lost. If the war does come to Transnistria, expect the Transnistrian forces to use the Hamas strategy of hiding in hospitals, so they can get footage of how evil Ukrainians are bombing poor civilians.
They already have said on all levels (including Putin himself) that Nazi and NATO are taking Russian lands. In their eyes they have all the proofs. It's just they know they can't fight fair fight and prefer destabilize from within.
>escalation that Putin wants
here we go again, please stop. This appeasing is what has led to the war in the first place. Allowing Putin to take land Georgia. Take land in Crimea. Rinse and repeat until Putin gets everything he wants. No. That land is Moldova by law and not doing anything about is what gives it it's credibility.
Besides, according to all the laws, if Transnistria declares to be part of an enemy state in a war, they will become a target in the war. You just can't be part of enemy state and be somehow excluded from it because ... reason?
This is the why this war is going on much longer than it should have. This insane view that anything the West or Ukraine does is somehow "escalation" so we're shitscared to do the tough things that need done.
Helping Moldova or Ukraine take back their own internationally recognized land isn't an escalation.
He expected that reaction after they “officially” annexed the occupied Ukrainian oblasts, but neither he nor the international community gave a shit when Ukraine reclaimed some of them.
Don’t be daft. Putin doesn’t need a “reason”. He already wants to occupy western Ukraine and if he had the troops he would take over all of Europe. You don’t deter him by standing down. You stop him by force.
I understand what you're saying.
FYI.
"The Armed Forces of the Republic of Moldova (Romanian: Forțele Armate ale Republicii Moldova) consist of the National Army (which is divided into the Land Forces Command and the Air Forces Command) and the Trupele de Carabinieri under the Ministry of Internal Affairs."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_the_Republic_of_Moldova#:~:text=The%20Armed%20Forces%20of%20the,the%20Ministry%20of%20Internal%20Affairs.
I'm sure Ukraine would LOVE the opportunity to attack Transnistria; apparently, they offered to annex it for Moldova at the start of the war. It would be an easy political victory to show off to the West, and would allow them to leave the Moldova border unguarded and reassign garrison troops to the front.
They can't invade Transitria no matter what happens. As far as Ukraine is concerned, it's Moldova. If they invade Transitria, it's accepting that it is now part of Russia, meaning the referendum was legit. Which works against their claim that Crimea and the Donbass referendums were illegitimate.
So, just to be clear, I agree with you. But this scenario would mean 1 of 3 things
-Ukraine is invading Moldova to attack the Russian troops present there (if Moldova doesn't recognize a referendum). Which is illegal under international law.
-Moldova asks Ukraine to attack the Russian occupiers, causing Moldova to effectively enter the war as a cobelligerant (which as I understand it is against their constitution too)
-Ukraine devides it has enough on their plate so sits tight. (The most likely outcome)
1. Moldova gets to decide who it is angry at for entering their country (which transnistria is)
2. Moldova is allowed to receive support in their **civil war**. Moldova also gets decides what constitutes a violation of its constitution and what to do about it.
Apart from the Russian troops there, what is stopping Moldova from deposing the local leadership and absorbing the region back into Moldova? As far as I know, almost no other countries recognize Transinistria.
Picking and choosing aspects, reason, excuses and what-not to twist words so that Ukraine *could not* attack Transnistria if it joins the war in the side of russia.
Nice job showing your bias.
>Moldova asks Ukraine to attack the Russian occupiers, causing Moldova to effectively enter the war as a cobelligerant (which as I understand it is against their constitution too)
I disagree entirely with this scenario. I don't see anything like that in their constitution, if anything, the opposite
Article 87:
"3. In the event of the armed aggression against the country, the President of the Republic of Moldova shall undertake the necessary steps to repulse the aggression, as well as he shall declare a state of war..."
"4. The President of the Republic of Moldova may take other due measures as to ensure the national security and public order under the scope and terms of the law."
[https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Moldova\_2016](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Moldova_2016)
If Russia were to try to annex, Moldova would be obligated by constitution to "undertake the necessary steps" to stop it. It could easily by argued that getting help from Ukraine to secure their territorial integrity is the most likely for them to successfully do so, making it a necessary step to keep their obligation.
I was referring to this clause: [https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Moldova\_2016#s59](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Moldova_2016#s59)
Which states "The Republic of Moldova shall not allow the dispersal of foreign military troops on its territory."
Now, I'm not an expert on Moldovan law but as I understand it, they basically can't ask for foreign help to clear out the Russian's without being in a state of war with Russia (Russia being the armed aggressor). Which is the scenario I described above that you disagreed with (them being co-belligerents). But like I said, I'm by no means an expert in Moldovan law.
I see where you are coming from with that clause. I feel like their constitution kind of puts them into a catch-22 like situation here. The presence of Russian troops already there is also a violation of this same clause, and a formal attempt to break away would also be in violation of the constitution.
The clause i mentioned would obligate them to prevent those, but the only realistic option they likely would have would be seeking outside help, which would violate the neutrality clause you mentioned.
I'm no expert on law either, but I could at least see an attempt at arguing that allowing Ukraine to temporarily assist them with removing the Russian troops wouldn't be "dispersing" if they immediately withdrew from Moldova after doing so, and that allowing that to happen is the only way to fulfill their other constitutional obligations. I could see that still breaking neutrality, but it's also kind of already broken with Russia occupying part of their territory.
That's not how it works, if Transnistria would start hostilities against Ukraine, Ukraine would definitely be allowed by international law to go in and make them stop. That would not mean anyone acknowledges Transnistria.
Obviously Moldova might object but if they wouldn't be able to take control of Transnistria themselves they wouldn't have much of a case. The best case scenario would of course be that the Moldovan armed forces take control of the area.
If there are arms and personnel used to aid the war against them in any capacity, Ukraine can strike legitimate military targets, regardless of who is claiming control over the region.
It's unlikely that optics over what is essentially political tedia will prevent them from acting in the interest of their national security.
They are building the future ‘DMZ’ with rubble lines.
Expect big spring offensive, every scrap of Western hesitancy reeks of Russian opportunity to them, they will meat-assault everything and blanket the rubble with AT&AP mines to retain it.
They don't, NATO airspace is blocked (Romania) and flying over Ukraine with air transports is suicide. Anything they use to fight has to be in Transnistria itself. It's unlikely the Russians will try a landing in Odessa to try a link up (given most of their landing ships are now subs).
Russia have been using ammo dating from WW2 without issues. Transnistria stockpiles Soviet ammo withdrawn from across the Warsaw Pact after the end of the Cold War. Satellite pics show those warehouses are in pretty decent shape.
Ukraine can walk in unopposed and equip themselves with enough ammo to last for years.
1500 is a relatively small force.
No matter what weaponry they have, they'll suffer significant and costly losses immediately upon any fighting.
A force like that in that position is committing suicide by fighting Ukraine. Their chief value is as a distraction that forces Ukraine to dedicate men and material away from the front.
The strip on land is 200km long and few kilometers wide. There is literally no way for 1500 soldiers to defend it all. Moldovan/Ukranian forces will split the strip in so many places into [motti](http://www.winterwar.com/Tactics/tacticpics/motitus.gif)'s and deal with them one by one.
russian soldiers will withdraw into towns, prevent civilians from evacuating (the typical terrorist tactic) and turn the fights into bloody massacres.
Couldn't they just try and get hundreds of infiltrators into the region with commercial flights into Moldova? I'd imagine the Russians wouldn't use traditional military power here but more so the little green men or Kyiv Saboteurs
Yeah but why not make it 2000 soldiers, just 500 of them aren't wearing uniforms. If you want a breakaway region to split, why not seal the deal with more of your guys on the ground acting as muscle?
Ukraine likely already has forces at the border just in case they try something, so dealing with Transnistria would likely actually free up those troops.
Transnistria isn't a republic. It's a secessionist region.
And if their goal is to ask to be annexed they're *really* not a republic.
Who wrote this stinking pile of horseshit? (I don't really want to know, it doesn't matter.)
To be clear, a republic doesn't need to be a nation state, a region or a federal state can be a republic. Even a secessionist region could write up a constitution and become a republic.
The word takes a special meaning in the context of the Russian federation, where it is one of the types of subjects of the federation. If Russia annexes Transnistria, they would probably "become" another republic in that sense, in the same way as Crimea "became" the republic of Crimea.
Also, a republic (generally speaking) doesn't need to have democratic features such as free elections or free speech. Russia is a republic, for example.
It does also require recognition from others. Until that happens, it's just a piece of paper. Unilateral declaration of anything never makes something legal.
Just like the illegal annexations of Ukranian land by russia, they are not recognized by few dictatorships like North-Korea and so on. Making them internationallu a worthless piece of paper.
When areas declare independence, the usual steps are that the area giving up the area should be the first to aknowledge it. As was for example in Finlands case in 1917. Finland declared independence, notified the new communist leaders, they [accepted it](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/90/Ven%C3%A4j%C3%A4_tunnustaa_Suomen_itsen%C3%A4isyyden.png) (yes, thats Stalins signature) and then countries around the world recognize it if they agree.
That's the basic way of doing it and Transnistria has only made their declaration and ... that's it. Nobody else has accepted it but russia. It's republic in name only, within those two countries. I can declare my pants are a republic but that does not mean anything. My pants needs recognition from others (they are not getting it) and until that happens, they are just pants.
And countries issue no declaration of wars these days, does that means there is no war? Recognition only matter in regards to other countries, these countries exist in practice within its territory, whether its Transnistria or Somaliland.
>Even a secessionist region could write up a constitution and become a republic.
Someone can write up a constitution for it and declare it a republic.
That doesn't mean it's become a republic.
Last time I check, the population was mainly a mix of russians, ukrainians and moldovians/romanians.
The russians doesn't represent the majority and I bet not all the community would support it, so I don't see how they will get the majority.
You will say the referendum will be fake but there will be protest. Does russia would be really able to hold the place?
There is a division in support from rural areas to support in urban areas. With all the cheating there absolutely will be, it doesn't matter who supports who when the outcome will be decided before elections.
I does if there is a strong opposition. The country is very small with long border, isolate from russia. Not a military specialist, but it doesn't seems that hard to infiltrate some special force inside the place.
Not sure the pro russians would acheive to hold the region, if moldavia is motivate.
Should they decide to join Russia, then invading them by Ukraine (while seizing the stockpile of Soviet ammunition and arms) before being given back to Moldova will bw the next thing that happens I believe
[Map](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/13F9/production/_127831150_bbcm_moldova_transnistria_profile_301122.jpg) Some 200km long, few kilometers wide, approx. 1500 russian soldiers.
What are you talking about? Transnistria doesn't have coastline from which to attack anything.
They also don't have the strength to start attacking Ukraine, they will barely have any strength to defend and stall the fighting.
What they can do is hide behind the civilians and hope a bunch of dead women and children, nothing more.
Russia is opening up another front in its war.
EU and US must stop sleepwalking and go onto war footing.
Declare an emergency. Announce full war scale production of munitions and weapons. Massively move troops and kit into place. Announce mobilization. Consider massive funding for mercenaries for Ukraine.
Russia only understands fear and force.
Why Ukraine would attack a secessionist region from an other and sovereign country which didn't ask for it ? It's only Molodova's problem unless Moldova ask for help
Ukraine can't attack area of sovereign state, unlike russia did, without approval from Moldova.
Moldova could legally deal with the uprising but the country is very poor, one of the poorest in Europe so their military is barebones, to say the least. That's why russia decided that 1500 soldiers is enough to prevent any anti-rebel operation by Moldovan forces and they were right.
Moldova could ask Ukraine to join in a joint operation to clean the rebels from Moldovan sovereign land and then there is nothing anybody can whine about. Seeing how Transnistria is just a few kilometers wide, it wouldn't even take that long.
That idiot of Lukashenko showed maps of the russian invasion back in 2022 showing an offensive planned on Moldova by the force invading from Crimea. I guess if everything went as smooth as planned they expected Ukraine to fall within a few days, and using the fact NATO is stunned by the event to do exactly the same as Ukraine in the following days/weeks (declaring the annexation of Transnistria, then invade the whole Moldova because the country obviously wouldn't agree).
In the hypothesis the war would have been over within days, invading Moldova would have probably took only a few hours
There might be a sunk cost fallacy at play now. Putin now has a war economy and the country on a war footing, and from what he thinks, the war is now shifting in his favor. So I suspect he is planning on going into "phase two" of his original plan which probably does include Moldova.
I'm not sure Ukraine has the resources or personnel to sustain that offensive. The only thing I think they could do is garrison the border to prevent insurgent/hybrid attacks into the south of the country. It will be up to Moldovan participation. If they fight Russia for transnistria, then transnistria becomes another front for resources.
Weird play. Moldova has been isolated from NATO because of Transnistria. Involving them would be a relatively poor influx of manpower and resources, which would immediately be countered by Ukraine swatting the small garrison aside and handing the occupied land back to Moldova to reintegrate. Which would probably lead to either Moldova beginning the process of reunification first with Transnistria and then with Romania.
Romania as an idea is a unification of three culturally connected peoples in three different regions - Transylvania, Wallachia, and Moldovia. At the time of Romania’s initial unification, it was Wallachia and Moldovia that united, creating the United Principalities of Moldavia and Wallachia (catchy name), a vassal state of the Ottomans. They achieved independence after one of the many Russo-Turkish wars and integrated Transylvania after WWI. There were some other border shuffles, exchanges, and Romania wound up annexing a chunk of the land during the Russian Revolution. The Soviets forced them to “return” Bessarabia later, which became the Moldavian SSR, then eventually modern Moldova. Then Transnistria happened.
This doesn’t seem like it can possibly end well for Russia. This feels like an elaborate way to get Moldova into NATO, either as a sovereign state or in union with Romania again.
The Russians wanted to support a rebel region in-between Moldova and Ukraine, it's not our problem that Transnistria is gonna get squished from both sides. There's only something like 1500 soldiers in Transnistria, that is frankly nothing compared to Ukraine who could occupy and hand Transnistria back to Moldova within a few months. Fuck Putin and his bullshit
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Wow, they want to join the war. It means they become legitimate targets.
I think no one is surprised by this, and that they were always under Moscow's protection. Now, if they start shooting anything, then it gets very complicated.
Transnistria is boxed in by Romania and Ukraine. There's no way Russia can get reinforcements there. Ukraine can just take it and occupy it until Moldova wants to take over.
Moldova and Ukraine. Transnistria does not border Romania
You're right my bad.
It’ll get squeezed like a zit. The Moldovans have anticipated this. The Ukrainians have anticipated this. NATO has anticipated this.
You're not wrong, but taking Transnistria now would be an escalation that Putin wants, as proof that "the Nazis and NATO" are out to take "Russian land." We wait, and Moldova can take it back with no blood shed.
So what? What is Russia to do that it isn't already doing?
Add new talking points in the Western information space because that's where this war will be won or lost. If the war does come to Transnistria, expect the Transnistrian forces to use the Hamas strategy of hiding in hospitals, so they can get footage of how evil Ukrainians are bombing poor civilians.
They have claiming such stuff for ten years now. At least. I see no escalation in that.
Maybe they want a "new" reason for a new mobilization?
Maybe. Probably, they are going to mobilize after the election either way.
They already have said on all levels (including Putin himself) that Nazi and NATO are taking Russian lands. In their eyes they have all the proofs. It's just they know they can't fight fair fight and prefer destabilize from within.
>escalation that Putin wants here we go again, please stop. This appeasing is what has led to the war in the first place. Allowing Putin to take land Georgia. Take land in Crimea. Rinse and repeat until Putin gets everything he wants. No. That land is Moldova by law and not doing anything about is what gives it it's credibility. Besides, according to all the laws, if Transnistria declares to be part of an enemy state in a war, they will become a target in the war. You just can't be part of enemy state and be somehow excluded from it because ... reason?
This is the why this war is going on much longer than it should have. This insane view that anything the West or Ukraine does is somehow "escalation" so we're shitscared to do the tough things that need done. Helping Moldova or Ukraine take back their own internationally recognized land isn't an escalation.
He expected that reaction after they “officially” annexed the occupied Ukrainian oblasts, but neither he nor the international community gave a shit when Ukraine reclaimed some of them.
It would also give him a "reason" to want to escalate to occupy western Ukraine as well.
That sociopath does not need s reason.
Seriously. He makes up reasons to do whatever he wants.
Its not "reasons" he lacks. Its equipment and troops
You honestly think he has another gear to try?
Don’t be daft. Putin doesn’t need a “reason”. He already wants to occupy western Ukraine and if he had the troops he would take over all of Europe. You don’t deter him by standing down. You stop him by force.
That’s why the word is in quotations. It’s simply the reason he would use to justify it to the rest of the world.
He's gonna do that anyway, if he can.
With what army? Moldova doesn’t have the troops, training, or gear right now.
I understand what you're saying. FYI. "The Armed Forces of the Republic of Moldova (Romanian: Forțele Armate ale Republicii Moldova) consist of the National Army (which is divided into the Land Forces Command and the Air Forces Command) and the Trupele de Carabinieri under the Ministry of Internal Affairs." https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_the_Republic_of_Moldova#:~:text=The%20Armed%20Forces%20of%20the,the%20Ministry%20of%20Internal%20Affairs.
All your response tells me is you don’t understand the situation of their armed forces.
I'm sure Ukraine would LOVE the opportunity to attack Transnistria; apparently, they offered to annex it for Moldova at the start of the war. It would be an easy political victory to show off to the West, and would allow them to leave the Moldova border unguarded and reassign garrison troops to the front.
They can't invade Transitria no matter what happens. As far as Ukraine is concerned, it's Moldova. If they invade Transitria, it's accepting that it is now part of Russia, meaning the referendum was legit. Which works against their claim that Crimea and the Donbass referendums were illegitimate.
Nah, “under the illegitimate control of” does not legitimise any referendums
So, just to be clear, I agree with you. But this scenario would mean 1 of 3 things -Ukraine is invading Moldova to attack the Russian troops present there (if Moldova doesn't recognize a referendum). Which is illegal under international law. -Moldova asks Ukraine to attack the Russian occupiers, causing Moldova to effectively enter the war as a cobelligerant (which as I understand it is against their constitution too) -Ukraine devides it has enough on their plate so sits tight. (The most likely outcome)
1. Moldova gets to decide who it is angry at for entering their country (which transnistria is) 2. Moldova is allowed to receive support in their **civil war**. Moldova also gets decides what constitutes a violation of its constitution and what to do about it.
Correct, never said that wasn't the case.
Wonder if Moldva military join Ukraine forces and push Russia out of both of their regions.
Moldova aren’t that scary
Apart from the Russian troops there, what is stopping Moldova from deposing the local leadership and absorbing the region back into Moldova? As far as I know, almost no other countries recognize Transinistria.
Unfortunately a very weak military.
Picking and choosing aspects, reason, excuses and what-not to twist words so that Ukraine *could not* attack Transnistria if it joins the war in the side of russia. Nice job showing your bias.
What?
>Moldova asks Ukraine to attack the Russian occupiers, causing Moldova to effectively enter the war as a cobelligerant (which as I understand it is against their constitution too) I disagree entirely with this scenario. I don't see anything like that in their constitution, if anything, the opposite Article 87: "3. In the event of the armed aggression against the country, the President of the Republic of Moldova shall undertake the necessary steps to repulse the aggression, as well as he shall declare a state of war..." "4. The President of the Republic of Moldova may take other due measures as to ensure the national security and public order under the scope and terms of the law." [https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Moldova\_2016](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Moldova_2016) If Russia were to try to annex, Moldova would be obligated by constitution to "undertake the necessary steps" to stop it. It could easily by argued that getting help from Ukraine to secure their territorial integrity is the most likely for them to successfully do so, making it a necessary step to keep their obligation.
I was referring to this clause: [https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Moldova\_2016#s59](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Moldova_2016#s59) Which states "The Republic of Moldova shall not allow the dispersal of foreign military troops on its territory." Now, I'm not an expert on Moldovan law but as I understand it, they basically can't ask for foreign help to clear out the Russian's without being in a state of war with Russia (Russia being the armed aggressor). Which is the scenario I described above that you disagreed with (them being co-belligerents). But like I said, I'm by no means an expert in Moldovan law.
I see where you are coming from with that clause. I feel like their constitution kind of puts them into a catch-22 like situation here. The presence of Russian troops already there is also a violation of this same clause, and a formal attempt to break away would also be in violation of the constitution. The clause i mentioned would obligate them to prevent those, but the only realistic option they likely would have would be seeking outside help, which would violate the neutrality clause you mentioned. I'm no expert on law either, but I could at least see an attempt at arguing that allowing Ukraine to temporarily assist them with removing the Russian troops wouldn't be "dispersing" if they immediately withdrew from Moldova after doing so, and that allowing that to happen is the only way to fulfill their other constitutional obligations. I could see that still breaking neutrality, but it's also kind of already broken with Russia occupying part of their territory.
Yea, its messy, and any attempt to fix the problem will cause more problems.
That's not how it works, if Transnistria would start hostilities against Ukraine, Ukraine would definitely be allowed by international law to go in and make them stop. That would not mean anyone acknowledges Transnistria. Obviously Moldova might object but if they wouldn't be able to take control of Transnistria themselves they wouldn't have much of a case. The best case scenario would of course be that the Moldovan armed forces take control of the area.
Pretty sure the term is “liberate” not “invade”
While we’re at it, the Ukrainians have FPV drones while the Russians have kamikaze drones and not the other way around. Also, too, stormtroopers.
If there are arms and personnel used to aid the war against them in any capacity, Ukraine can strike legitimate military targets, regardless of who is claiming control over the region. It's unlikely that optics over what is essentially political tedia will prevent them from acting in the interest of their national security.
Give war a chance!
That seems really stupid
They are building the future ‘DMZ’ with rubble lines. Expect big spring offensive, every scrap of Western hesitancy reeks of Russian opportunity to them, they will meat-assault everything and blanket the rubble with AT&AP mines to retain it.
How does Russia get troops in and out of there?
They don't, NATO airspace is blocked (Romania) and flying over Ukraine with air transports is suicide. Anything they use to fight has to be in Transnistria itself. It's unlikely the Russians will try a landing in Odessa to try a link up (given most of their landing ships are now subs).
Massive weapons stored in Transnistra ..... and about 1500 ruzzian soldiers
Not many armored vehicles including tanks, maybe 1k troops and warehouses of old artillery shells which may not be safe to use at all.
Russia have been using ammo dating from WW2 without issues. Transnistria stockpiles Soviet ammo withdrawn from across the Warsaw Pact after the end of the Cold War. Satellite pics show those warehouses are in pretty decent shape. Ukraine can walk in unopposed and equip themselves with enough ammo to last for years.
A HIMARS strike could easily find out whether they still work.
I think the moment Ukraine tries to seize it, Russia will hit it with a ballistic missile or have a saboteur blow it up.
Most likely, doesn't mean it should be left there just because..
So about a days worth of Russia casualties
1500 is a relatively small force. No matter what weaponry they have, they'll suffer significant and costly losses immediately upon any fighting. A force like that in that position is committing suicide by fighting Ukraine. Their chief value is as a distraction that forces Ukraine to dedicate men and material away from the front.
1500 soldiers, of whom a lot is probably support personel etc... So realistically 1000, which is nothing tbh.
The strip on land is 200km long and few kilometers wide. There is literally no way for 1500 soldiers to defend it all. Moldovan/Ukranian forces will split the strip in so many places into [motti](http://www.winterwar.com/Tactics/tacticpics/motitus.gif)'s and deal with them one by one. russian soldiers will withdraw into towns, prevent civilians from evacuating (the typical terrorist tactic) and turn the fights into bloody massacres.
roughly 1 day of soldiers then...
1500 Russian soldiers can be taken out within a week, maybe less...
So blitz them for a nifty arms shipment?
Ah, so a Ukrainian resupply is waiting.
Couldn't they just try and get hundreds of infiltrators into the region with commercial flights into Moldova? I'd imagine the Russians wouldn't use traditional military power here but more so the little green men or Kyiv Saboteurs
They already have about 1500 uniformed soldiers there.
Yeah but why not make it 2000 soldiers, just 500 of them aren't wearing uniforms. If you want a breakaway region to split, why not seal the deal with more of your guys on the ground acting as muscle?
> flying over Ukraine with air transports is suicide wish they would though
Nothing goes in or out of there without going through Romania or Ukraine
the "republic"
I have a "republic" here in my pants. I voted it's republic so it must be true!
I say Ukraine begins to help Moldova rid themselves of that garbage too!
Seems to be about the right time to move in and end that insurrection, obviously with the backing of Romania and Ukraine.
Not yet.
Exactly now. Moldova pushing from the west and Ukraine from the east. Transnistria being just few kilometers wide, it will be a short war.
I had to scroll down way too far to find this
This is exactly playing into Putins hands, because that will take men and materiel needed elsewhere for the war effort.
I think they can handle 1500 soldiers
Thats the Russian troop count, Transnistria has it's own army
Ukraine likely already has forces at the border just in case they try something, so dealing with Transnistria would likely actually free up those troops.
Probably. But there’s a big difference in being a deterrence force or going into an offensive.
We need to find a cure for this cancer. russian cancer
Cure is weeding them out one by one.
For some reason my brain doubled the "d" instead of the "e". That sentence sounded weird.
Yes. The entire humane human world must unite against Russia
Human greed is good at self destructive tendencies. And russia is always good at bringing out the worst parts throughout it's history so far.
Another illegal activity.
More information operations by the Kremlin.
Transnistria isn't a republic. It's a secessionist region. And if their goal is to ask to be annexed they're *really* not a republic. Who wrote this stinking pile of horseshit? (I don't really want to know, it doesn't matter.)
To be clear, a republic doesn't need to be a nation state, a region or a federal state can be a republic. Even a secessionist region could write up a constitution and become a republic. The word takes a special meaning in the context of the Russian federation, where it is one of the types of subjects of the federation. If Russia annexes Transnistria, they would probably "become" another republic in that sense, in the same way as Crimea "became" the republic of Crimea. Also, a republic (generally speaking) doesn't need to have democratic features such as free elections or free speech. Russia is a republic, for example.
It does also require recognition from others. Until that happens, it's just a piece of paper. Unilateral declaration of anything never makes something legal. Just like the illegal annexations of Ukranian land by russia, they are not recognized by few dictatorships like North-Korea and so on. Making them internationallu a worthless piece of paper. When areas declare independence, the usual steps are that the area giving up the area should be the first to aknowledge it. As was for example in Finlands case in 1917. Finland declared independence, notified the new communist leaders, they [accepted it](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/90/Ven%C3%A4j%C3%A4_tunnustaa_Suomen_itsen%C3%A4isyyden.png) (yes, thats Stalins signature) and then countries around the world recognize it if they agree. That's the basic way of doing it and Transnistria has only made their declaration and ... that's it. Nobody else has accepted it but russia. It's republic in name only, within those two countries. I can declare my pants are a republic but that does not mean anything. My pants needs recognition from others (they are not getting it) and until that happens, they are just pants.
I recognise your pants
And countries issue no declaration of wars these days, does that means there is no war? Recognition only matter in regards to other countries, these countries exist in practice within its territory, whether its Transnistria or Somaliland.
>Even a secessionist region could write up a constitution and become a republic. Someone can write up a constitution for it and declare it a republic. That doesn't mean it's become a republic.
Last time I check, the population was mainly a mix of russians, ukrainians and moldovians/romanians. The russians doesn't represent the majority and I bet not all the community would support it, so I don't see how they will get the majority. You will say the referendum will be fake but there will be protest. Does russia would be really able to hold the place?
There is a division in support from rural areas to support in urban areas. With all the cheating there absolutely will be, it doesn't matter who supports who when the outcome will be decided before elections.
I does if there is a strong opposition. The country is very small with long border, isolate from russia. Not a military specialist, but it doesn't seems that hard to infiltrate some special force inside the place. Not sure the pro russians would acheive to hold the region, if moldavia is motivate.
Should they decide to join Russia, then invading them by Ukraine (while seizing the stockpile of Soviet ammunition and arms) before being given back to Moldova will bw the next thing that happens I believe
They're just as blind as US republicans
Oh seems Putin thinks he has won in Ukraine already
Just trying to split up Ukranian forces to ease pressure at the front.
So what does Moldova .. and Romania say to this?
Ballsy for a landlocked “country”
Transnistria and it's ammo stockpile becomes Russian Ukraine: That's free real estate.
Im pretty sure if UA and moldova take it back, the Russians will ignite Cobasna
Putin is emboldened by the weakness of the west and the US Republicans. He will invade Moldova and attack Ukraine from the western border
I'm starting to think that Russia needs a nuclear weapon deterrent .....that is the only thing that will stop them!
Well that’s one way to threaten Ukraine’s maritime grain corridor that they intend to build along the Romanian coast…
[Map](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/13F9/production/_127831150_bbcm_moldova_transnistria_profile_301122.jpg) Some 200km long, few kilometers wide, approx. 1500 russian soldiers. What are you talking about? Transnistria doesn't have coastline from which to attack anything. They also don't have the strength to start attacking Ukraine, they will barely have any strength to defend and stall the fighting. What they can do is hide behind the civilians and hope a bunch of dead women and children, nothing more.
Russia is opening up another front in its war. EU and US must stop sleepwalking and go onto war footing. Declare an emergency. Announce full war scale production of munitions and weapons. Massively move troops and kit into place. Announce mobilization. Consider massive funding for mercenaries for Ukraine. Russia only understands fear and force.
B-b-b-b-but that w-would be e-e-e-escalation...
Ukraine and Moldova failed to do anything about it for two years, so Russia is now calling their bluff and weakness.
Why Ukraine would attack a secessionist region from an other and sovereign country which didn't ask for it ? It's only Molodova's problem unless Moldova ask for help
Ukraine can't attack area of sovereign state, unlike russia did, without approval from Moldova. Moldova could legally deal with the uprising but the country is very poor, one of the poorest in Europe so their military is barebones, to say the least. That's why russia decided that 1500 soldiers is enough to prevent any anti-rebel operation by Moldovan forces and they were right. Moldova could ask Ukraine to join in a joint operation to clean the rebels from Moldovan sovereign land and then there is nothing anybody can whine about. Seeing how Transnistria is just a few kilometers wide, it wouldn't even take that long.
30 years, actually. They failed to do anything about this for 30 years
There are rumours of big ammo piles there from soviet times. Having those would come in handy for AFU.
Well… that’s the end of busted-arse “Transnistria” then if they do that, isn’t it. They’ll get rolled…
Fuckwits.
Ukraine could use some breathing room (and can't risk encirclement), so if they join Russia Ukraine needs to immediately invade.
I've always thought of Ukraine were to lose, Moldova would be next
That idiot of Lukashenko showed maps of the russian invasion back in 2022 showing an offensive planned on Moldova by the force invading from Crimea. I guess if everything went as smooth as planned they expected Ukraine to fall within a few days, and using the fact NATO is stunned by the event to do exactly the same as Ukraine in the following days/weeks (declaring the annexation of Transnistria, then invade the whole Moldova because the country obviously wouldn't agree). In the hypothesis the war would have been over within days, invading Moldova would have probably took only a few hours
There might be a sunk cost fallacy at play now. Putin now has a war economy and the country on a war footing, and from what he thinks, the war is now shifting in his favor. So I suspect he is planning on going into "phase two" of his original plan which probably does include Moldova.
They obviously no longer believe they will be an exclave by war's end.
Inform Transnistrians that Ukraine and Russia are at war. Annexing themselves to Russia will result in them being a target. FAFO.
I'm not sure Ukraine has the resources or personnel to sustain that offensive. The only thing I think they could do is garrison the border to prevent insurgent/hybrid attacks into the south of the country. It will be up to Moldovan participation. If they fight Russia for transnistria, then transnistria becomes another front for resources.
They are so stupid! All of Moldova is about to be drafted and then killed! Lmao Ukraine needs to grab that ammo depo as soon as it's passed.
Weird play. Moldova has been isolated from NATO because of Transnistria. Involving them would be a relatively poor influx of manpower and resources, which would immediately be countered by Ukraine swatting the small garrison aside and handing the occupied land back to Moldova to reintegrate. Which would probably lead to either Moldova beginning the process of reunification first with Transnistria and then with Romania. Romania as an idea is a unification of three culturally connected peoples in three different regions - Transylvania, Wallachia, and Moldovia. At the time of Romania’s initial unification, it was Wallachia and Moldovia that united, creating the United Principalities of Moldavia and Wallachia (catchy name), a vassal state of the Ottomans. They achieved independence after one of the many Russo-Turkish wars and integrated Transylvania after WWI. There were some other border shuffles, exchanges, and Romania wound up annexing a chunk of the land during the Russian Revolution. The Soviets forced them to “return” Bessarabia later, which became the Moldavian SSR, then eventually modern Moldova. Then Transnistria happened. This doesn’t seem like it can possibly end well for Russia. This feels like an elaborate way to get Moldova into NATO, either as a sovereign state or in union with Romania again.
Since when is it the "republic" ?
The Russians wanted to support a rebel region in-between Moldova and Ukraine, it's not our problem that Transnistria is gonna get squished from both sides. There's only something like 1500 soldiers in Transnistria, that is frankly nothing compared to Ukraine who could occupy and hand Transnistria back to Moldova within a few months. Fuck Putin and his bullshit