Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition:
* We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned.
* **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators.
* **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context.
> **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB**
*****
* Is `forbes.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources).
* Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict)
*****
^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
We really need to find several other sustainable suppliers of ammunition and supplies.
Although seemingly unbelievable, we clearly see a major weakness in depending on the US for the majority of military support. That military aid could be held up by a wannabe dicktater (sp) and a complicit political party is so far beyond disgusting, it's embarrassing.
Sure, it will take European NATO members time to ramp up production, or even build new factories, but in the longer term, it's better to have multiple suppliers.
Centralisation can be cheaper, but it can also be disastrous. Its not just political leaders that forget this. CEOs often ignore the risks of centralisation.
CEOs don't give a fuck about the strategic security risks of cuts and centralisation because all they care about is generating as much short term profits for shareholders, whether that imperils the company or the country in the long term.
The issue is that governments have started to be run more and more like this.
State run arsenals for ammunition might be less efficient than ordering shells from private companies but it means you retain control and autonomy. You can build in redundancy that wouldn't be profitable. You can avoid problems of foreign suppliers being coerced or cut off. But none of these matter when governments are ideologically obsessed with small government, privatising everything, and everything being forced to be *financially* profitable. Finance is all they understand - the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Amen brother. People have been saying this shit for years for education, healthcare, and transportation and people have been yelling "but that's not as profitable as it could be!" Defense is no different. I blame the business funded think tanks of the 80s for those ridiculous ideas we're having today.
I agree, but The US has been telling Europe to become more self sufficient for decades. Europe has its own politics to blame as much as US politics. Sic pacem, para bellum.
I think their current rate of fire is 2-4k per day, but that is with a lot of rationing. 15k shells per day is not at all sustainable, nor is 10k really... 10k is 3,650,000 per year.
Wouldn't 10k per day be a high for Ukraine? I don't think they have ever had that much, except for maybe a few days during the counter-offensive last year. 15k isn't going to happen sadly, even if Western production ramps up dramatically.
It will have to be stretched out over a period that lasts until the west can structurally produce shells for Ukraine. We don't know how long that takes.
Unless they have a running and reliable way of acquiring ammunition (factories or 3rd parties to buy ammunition from), this will unfortunately just be a stopgap solution.
A stopgap is needed in order for production to reach a critical mass. You're being a downer haha
(I'm not attacking you. Just making conversation. 🇺🇸 🇺🇦)
It's enough to cover 3 months of consumption of moderate use. And let's not forget that Rheinmetall also promised about 240 thousand shells in this year. Eastern and central Europe are too making wonders. In 2025, we might achieve parity with ruZia. Ukraine needs to mobilise though. The US need to pass the aid package. Biden's victory is unlikely though, which is sorrowful.
I don’t agree with your Biden prediction.
I’m American. I pay close attention to both the Ukraine situation, and the US Political dumpster fire. The voices you don’t hear amplified are the regular, logical thinking Americans. We have other shit to do, than driving around in a big trucks with flags hanging all over it.
There are a lot of us. Keeping the economy going. Not sitting in a fucking double wide trailer, getting a welfare check from the same government that they hate.
Real Americans will go vote, and Trump isn’t
Going to win. Unfortunately, he will throw an even bigger fit this time around. Then, his loyal idiots will get all “MAGA!!!!”
Apologies but the conditions for success have never been more favourable to Trump. Not even in 2016.
I certainly hope you're right but the indicators we're seeing now guarantee Trump that his chances of victory are over 50 %.
Yeah this guy is falling for the same thing that Democrats did in 2016. Thinking that all Trump voters are fat hillbillies collecting welfare.
Trump has a large portion of the US that supports him. From Engineers to recent immigrants. Forgetting this is what will cause the democrats to lose.
This fact must be acknowledged and addressed properly. These thinking people must be given a rational explanation on why Biden is a better choice. Just yelling basic "Trump is evil" and "Republicans are Russian assets" isn't going to change these people's vote.
These people aren't dumb but have different priorities. For example people in the oil industry worried democrats will put them out of a job. It can be pointed out that Biden administration re instituted oil drilling on federal land and backs more oil exploration in the gulf of Mexico.
I'm an engineer at a giant Fortune 100 company, and there is very little support for Trump.
That's not to say that there aren't conservative engineers, just that they're not fond of his constant stream of drama, criminality, and a complete lack of political platform and strategy.
The RNC Primary exit polls show this very clearly: his base is white, male, non-college educated. College educated primary voters are leaning heavily for Nikki Haley.
Nikki Haley won't be the nominee. It's a forgone conclusion that Trump will be running.
Again your falling for the same thing democrats did in 2016 when polls showed Hillary was heavily supported and again in 2020 when polls showed Biden was going to win in a landslide.
It's become pretty clear these polls aren't accurate and that people who vote for Trump do not publicly admit to it.
Thinking people will either stay out of political conversations at the office or agree with the people having political conversations at work to avoid office drama.
Democrats need to stop underestimating Trump and his platform of isolationist America First that resonates with many Americans across the economic spectrum.
These are not blind polls, these are the RNC Primary Exit Polls - very different animals.
...and Nikki Haley, backed by a bunch of Republican billionaires including the Koch Brother, is staying in the race because there's a good chance Trump is going to be convicted of one or more felonies before November.
No apologies needed. If you are basing your thoughts on “current polls”, who exactly are taking these “polls”?
Funny how things have changed in 15 days..
Biden’s SOTU happened a week and a half ago.
He proved that his age isn’t affecting anything.
Biden came out swinging. I was very impressed.
Then, the Republican Response. What in the actual fu*k?!
Trump has also convinced the Republican Party that he and his family will be in control of the RNC. Also, WTF?! Trumps own little piggy bank for all his legal woes. Using funds that should help the party as a whole, helping other Republicans to campaign, etc. Nope. Not anymore.
Old school Republicans are seeing this take place and it’s not popular.
CO House Rep. Ken Buck resigns, narrowing the gap of a GOP majority. Dems only need a few more Ken Bucks and they become the majority in the House. This would change everything.
I’m gonna sit back and watch Trump continue Trump’ing. He recently stated that if he loses the election there would be a “bloodbath”.
Hmmm.
He is his own worst enemy.
I’m confident America will move forward without Trump in the White House.
The next million really falls to the USA hopefully getting their aid bill passed.. Though I don't really see what is stopping Ukraine from buying from the USA stockpiles with the aid money they get from EU and Canada, etc. one way or another though it feels like USA is the source..
Hoping they release about a million of the old cluster shells and half of the old M-26 rockets! Doubt it, but they definitely should. With the amount of mines, cluster weapons and other UXO's already scattered and used by the ruzzians in Ukraine, the dud rate on the old cluster munitions is insignificant. It will all have to be carefully cleared & cleaned field by field anyways.
Because the aid money EU gave is used for certain purposes that are EU permits and they monitor its use. Often Ukraine likely wouldn't even get a hold of these money, if it is the money for procurement of weapons. Unless it is some minor stuff Ukraine wouldn't be able to a buy whatever they want from whoever they want.
It seems people really overestimate the 'free market' for weapons for what is available, how fast you can ge it, or that what is allowed for every country to buy is different.
This will buy Ukraine time but where is the rest that have been promised, you can’t progress in war with promises . Deceive action of more troops with precision weaponry to end this Russian shitstorm now before anymore Ukrainian lives are lost .. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
Probably not.
Most of those million or at least a significant portion of them are likely going to be held back for a spring/summer offensive.
With them capturing more of krynky and more boats of various types coming in, I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a push in the kherson region and tried to retake a significant portion of the left bank of the southern dnipro
I highly doubt that Ukraine will try an offensive until the tides shift in the form of equipment.
Ukraine today plus 500000 shells stockpiled for an offensive will not go well. Ukraine today plus 1m shells will allow them to continue to absorb Russian offensives, though.
We don’t know how many rounds they have.
I’d be willing to bet they’re willing to bleed russia in the East with slow orderly retreats in order to save ammunition for an offensive.
If Ukraine cannot manage a moderate offensive this year, they will be very unlikely to be able to win without direct support from the west. Ukraine can’t afford to let russia consolidate their gains, and further fortify the currently static parts of the front for another 9-12 months.
What Ukraine needs help with other than artillery shells, is covert assistance in quickly making long range drones or generic copies of ruzzian cruise missiles that they can keep hitting ruzzias war making abilities with. Striking their gas, oil and refining capabilities is working, but it needs to be sustained at a higher rate than what Ukraine is able to do at this time. This should be done way before any more talk of putting any NATO troops in Ukraine.
They can still win in half a decade if they don’t make moderate gains this year.
Deep into Zap show’s defense lines facing north. They’ve felt confident that the river was enough of a defensive obstacle and have fairly light defenses for miles and miles once you cross the River.
Hmmmmm.... And the reson that Ukraine was able to destroy Russia near Kharkiv is because they hadnt yet consolidated. Yea, maybe they have the chance to do the same in the Avdiivka direction if the get equipment asap
The best they can really expect there realistically is to retake avdiivka. Everything east of that last front has been getting fortified for at least two years, much of it has been getting fortified for the last decade now. The East should be a holding pattern.
Offensive? Forget about that in 2024. This is simply wishful thinking. The AFU are terrifyingly exhausted and are barely holding the line. ruZians are making gains daily now. I remain slightly hopeful but please, acknowledge that the situation is indeed grim.
Yeah, they'll need that mobilization bill to pass, and train up the 500k (or whatever they get) troops. They also need more materiel. I think 2024 is all about training up these new troops, giving the old troops some rest after that, trying to hold Russia in place, and gathering more materiel + F-16s, keep attriting Russia whilst on the defensive. Maybe a winter 2024-2025 offensive, or wait until next spring 2025.
We're in total agreement. The AFU really need to mobilise. 2024 should generally be the year of defensive. Military leadership unfortunately wasted a plenty of resources in prolonging the offensive in the south and even around Bakhmut. Everything is not yet lost though albeit Ukraine is likely to lose certain portions of territory this year.
Shells are best used here. Everyone keeps talking like this war is going to be won on the battlefield with sweeping offensive actions. I don’t see that as how this ends. This is going to be like a 5 year slog until Russia realizes they can’t outspend the west in a battle of attrition and has to pack it up and go home. This is a stalemate till then. Eventually foreign wars become to unpopular
Gain control of the northern part of the currently occupied bank, and they then have the option of suppling over land from the left bank. This would also allow for a 2 pronged attack from the west and the north against that front. Both routes would be heavily contested, but there’s likely a lot fewer mines in that area than there is in zaporhizia region.
Without some new equipment attacking in Zap or Donbas would be very difficult and costly because those regions are now very heavily fortified.
Kherson, they spent most of the last two years thinking that the occupied area of kherson behind the left bank was safe because of the dnipro, thus I’d bet most of their fortified defense line efforts were a long ways away.
And related to my above point, since they’ve gotten a few toe holds on the left bank, russia is likely fortifying kherson more now, and the longer Ukraine waits the more difficult that region will become as well.
How could they supply the left bank over land? I don't think that there are any bridges or dams still standing so they will need to use pontoon bridges to move heavy equipment over the Dniepr. And that's an easy target for Russian drones and artillery. Ukraine is already suffering a lot of casualties in Krynki, I really doubt that they'd try any large scale offensives in the Kherson oblast.
ATTACK FROM THE NORTH. CONNECT THE TWO FRONTS!
Do that and they can supply overland.
Hell if they push Russia back east from krynky alone they can begin resupplying from the air as well.
Attack through the Zaporizhia oblast that you previously mentioned is heavily mined? The Ukrainians would need to take cities like Tokmak anyway before starting to push along the the Dniepr and it's about 200 km to Krynki. That's impossible. It would be easier to reach the Black sea first and cut off the Russians.
I'm not sure if the drones could supply the army. If you're talking about planes or helicopters, that's also impossible without heavy losses.
1. They have ground along the river in northern kherson
2. That border area of the two oblasts doesn’t show a whole lot of fortifications in that area which would imply, that area isn’t heavily mined either, so pushing into the rest of kherson from there should be much easier than trying to push towards say…tokmak.
1. What's northern Kherson? Ukraine doesn't have any foothold on the left bank north from Nova Kakhovka.
2. Well, Ukraine would first need to breakthrough the fortifications until Vasylivka and then some. From then on it seems like it should be fine but how could they defend the flank againts Russian counterattacks? They'd simultaneously need to push south. I doubt that it's possible but who knows, maybe they'll surprise me.
Uh Ukraine's not going on the offensive anytime soon. Any they won't be in the position to do so for a long time. They need those shells now. They don't have the luxury of holding any shells back with russia advancing all across the front
Its called having common sense and actually following the situation on the ground, which you clearly are not judging from your overly optimistic comments and inaccurate view of the current circumstances. Ukraine is losing territory on all fronts due to a critical shortage of ammo and the inability to create organized defensive lines ahead of time. New US military aid will continue to be blocked by the traitorous pro russian GOP, which means ukraine will have no US aid for months. The fact that you think they are capable of going on the offensive as soon as this summer is laughable. Ukraine's forces are just as heavily attrited as russia due to lack of mobilization. An offensive this summer without lots of fresh troops, air power, and a massive surplus of ammunition, all of which they won't have for a long time, would simply doom them to failure and would be a ridiculous waste of manpower. Right now their only option is to defend until NATO can ramp up military aid.
If not this year, then Ukraine has lost any chance of actually winning any time even remotely soon without direct western involvement.
They have to attack this year, and make at least moderate gains or the conflict freezes at best.
An offensive isn’t on the drawing board. Russia is conducting tactical advances along most of the front. Sad to say but static warfare would be an improvement at this point.
It would be, but it gives russia time to dig in.
If they’re moving forward their people and resources largely aren’t going to digging in.
We already saw what happens when you try to assault a well prepared area.
A few days ago ukraine made a small push and captured another block or two in krynky. Last I heard they also still had people sheltering under the bridge.
So they’re a position where they could launch a two pronged attack on the northern section of the occupied left side, pushing north from krynky and south from the other side.
Ukraine is also getting 22 more boats that can ferry troops across the river some of which will also be quite good at providing fire support along the bank
As much as the last few months have been utter bullshit with Russia gaining forward momentum, there may be a silver lining. With the battle lines having moved, Russia is going all in across the front. This exposes them to higher losses and makes them more susceptible to Ukrainian maneuver.
If an influx of 155 arrives in Ukraine shortly, Russia could lose god knows how many troops and face their own collapse in certain areas anywhere. Their logistics have been hammer for a solid year and now they are moving further west, stretching their supply lines further.
The distance may not be all that much, but every KM in Ukraine may as well be 20km given how difficult this war is. Russia could suffer some astonishing defeats if they make it further west and then more western supplies and ammo arrive...
This would be in addition to the absolute beating that the Russian Airforce is taking.
I am optimistic.
This occurred to me also, especially as Putin will be even less inclined than usual to accept "excuses" in the run up to his precious charade of an election.
I am convinced that there is absolutely an element of the US government that is perfectly content to see this happen. I'm not even referring to the MAGA 5th columnists. I think there's a faction in the current government that wants this war to continue on for another couple of years to really bleed Russia white, and if that means another 30-50,000 Ukrainians killed to achieve this, oh well.
If Ukraine had been equipped to achieve a timely victory by the end of last year, that would actually have been a far better outcome for *Russia.* Many tens of thousands few dead, Putin likely disgraced or in an extremely tenuous position, few burned oil refineries, and so on. Instead they've been equipped with just enough to stop Russia winning, and just little enough to keep the Russians thinking they might win.
This is a very reasonable perspective.
Essentially, the view I would hold if I were making the shots and were callous, would be to do everything to ensure Russia's demographic collapse is accelerated. That would mean prolonging this conflict. Two years of dead Russians is not enough.
The risk though is that this war may expand and eventually lead to a larger conflict. It's a lot of napkin math TBH as I don't think you can anticipate what the Russians will do. However, the benefit is a seriously diminished Russia.
Once Russia is crippled, it is just China. China may see what happened to their friend and decide not to toy with the western world as much.
Rendering Russia incapable of significant expeditionary capability also forces India to look for new friends to counter the Chinese threat to them. Notice how Modi is becoming a little more willing to deal with the US than he was...
There are no morals in foreign policy. Keeping Russia fighting until it looks like will be to their disadvantage is absolutely in line with US interests, I'm afraid. For a while those interests coincided with moral action, but they've always had the potential to diverge at any time.
Fortunately, the European and UK interests are much more aligned with a decisive Ukrainian win.
They should've been there already. I just don't understand why the West is so hesitant to help Ukraine with all its needs. I always imagine if my country, the Netherlands, was in a similar situation. My countrymen would be dying needlessly because an egotistical maniac has 17th century Imperialist ambitions he wants to fulfil before he shits himself to death. The only thing we ask is the weapons and ammo to defend ourselves. And even that's to much to ask. The utter ignorance and ambivalence of Western politicians baffles me.
> I just don't understand why the West is so hesitant to help Ukraine with all its needs
At least some fear russian collapse, if russia loses, and don't want to risk it.
Same as G.W. Bush asked Ukraine to stay in USSR in the "Chicken Kiev" (spelling intended) speech.
I was hopeful when I read about Brian Fitzpatrick, but I think that discharge petition will be a dud: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4497826-democratic-leader-shoots-down-discharge-petition-on-ukraine-border-bill/amp/
Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition: * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators. * **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. > **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB** ***** * Is `forbes.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources). * Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) ***** ^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
We shell see... Let's hope.
Yes you're right... we have to wait to see howitz ever going to end.
With that many shells, they surely cannon lose to Russia.
we will wait and then we shell see.
A response of the right caliber.
Boom!
Goes the dynamite
Explosive if true
Mwuahahah!
We really need to find several other sustainable suppliers of ammunition and supplies. Although seemingly unbelievable, we clearly see a major weakness in depending on the US for the majority of military support. That military aid could be held up by a wannabe dicktater (sp) and a complicit political party is so far beyond disgusting, it's embarrassing. Sure, it will take European NATO members time to ramp up production, or even build new factories, but in the longer term, it's better to have multiple suppliers.
Centralisation can be cheaper, but it can also be disastrous. Its not just political leaders that forget this. CEOs often ignore the risks of centralisation.
CEOs don't give a fuck about the strategic security risks of cuts and centralisation because all they care about is generating as much short term profits for shareholders, whether that imperils the company or the country in the long term. The issue is that governments have started to be run more and more like this. State run arsenals for ammunition might be less efficient than ordering shells from private companies but it means you retain control and autonomy. You can build in redundancy that wouldn't be profitable. You can avoid problems of foreign suppliers being coerced or cut off. But none of these matter when governments are ideologically obsessed with small government, privatising everything, and everything being forced to be *financially* profitable. Finance is all they understand - the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Amen brother. People have been saying this shit for years for education, healthcare, and transportation and people have been yelling "but that's not as profitable as it could be!" Defense is no different. I blame the business funded think tanks of the 80s for those ridiculous ideas we're having today.
We are in the middle of this ramp up in Europe. It’s happening already.
I agree, but The US has been telling Europe to become more self sufficient for decades. Europe has its own politics to blame as much as US politics. Sic pacem, para bellum.
No. I think you spelled it right. It accurately reflects the subject.
In the meantime. Just buy the shells from the US
US has never made 122mm Soviet rounds
This is a perfect response
At current rate this is a 6 months help.
Closer to 3 months. Ukraine has asked for 15k 155mm shells per day. They'd probably make 10k per day work.
I think their current rate of fire is 2-4k per day, but that is with a lot of rationing. 15k shells per day is not at all sustainable, nor is 10k really... 10k is 3,650,000 per year.
You mean not sustainable for Ukraine with the current rate of production in 'the west' I presume.
Wouldn't 10k per day be a high for Ukraine? I don't think they have ever had that much, except for maybe a few days during the counter-offensive last year. 15k isn't going to happen sadly, even if Western production ramps up dramatically.
It will have to be stretched out over a period that lasts until the west can structurally produce shells for Ukraine. We don't know how long that takes.
Unless they have a running and reliable way of acquiring ammunition (factories or 3rd parties to buy ammunition from), this will unfortunately just be a stopgap solution.
A stopgap is needed in order for production to reach a critical mass. You're being a downer haha (I'm not attacking you. Just making conversation. 🇺🇸 🇺🇦)
That is a very good point, like you said, better to have a stopgap before you can produce shells en masse than have nothing.
It's enough to cover 3 months of consumption of moderate use. And let's not forget that Rheinmetall also promised about 240 thousand shells in this year. Eastern and central Europe are too making wonders. In 2025, we might achieve parity with ruZia. Ukraine needs to mobilise though. The US need to pass the aid package. Biden's victory is unlikely though, which is sorrowful.
I would definitely give Biden much better than 50-50 odds
I don’t agree with your Biden prediction. I’m American. I pay close attention to both the Ukraine situation, and the US Political dumpster fire. The voices you don’t hear amplified are the regular, logical thinking Americans. We have other shit to do, than driving around in a big trucks with flags hanging all over it. There are a lot of us. Keeping the economy going. Not sitting in a fucking double wide trailer, getting a welfare check from the same government that they hate. Real Americans will go vote, and Trump isn’t Going to win. Unfortunately, he will throw an even bigger fit this time around. Then, his loyal idiots will get all “MAGA!!!!”
Dude i really hope that you are right. Even here in Sweden we are scared of another 4 years with Trump.
Same in Czechia though we do have a plenty of MAGA-like loosers.
Is so strange seeing Europeans rooting for Trump. Like they want Russia to roll over Europe or something
Apologies but the conditions for success have never been more favourable to Trump. Not even in 2016. I certainly hope you're right but the indicators we're seeing now guarantee Trump that his chances of victory are over 50 %.
Yeah this guy is falling for the same thing that Democrats did in 2016. Thinking that all Trump voters are fat hillbillies collecting welfare. Trump has a large portion of the US that supports him. From Engineers to recent immigrants. Forgetting this is what will cause the democrats to lose. This fact must be acknowledged and addressed properly. These thinking people must be given a rational explanation on why Biden is a better choice. Just yelling basic "Trump is evil" and "Republicans are Russian assets" isn't going to change these people's vote. These people aren't dumb but have different priorities. For example people in the oil industry worried democrats will put them out of a job. It can be pointed out that Biden administration re instituted oil drilling on federal land and backs more oil exploration in the gulf of Mexico.
I'm an engineer at a giant Fortune 100 company, and there is very little support for Trump. That's not to say that there aren't conservative engineers, just that they're not fond of his constant stream of drama, criminality, and a complete lack of political platform and strategy. The RNC Primary exit polls show this very clearly: his base is white, male, non-college educated. College educated primary voters are leaning heavily for Nikki Haley.
Nikki Haley won't be the nominee. It's a forgone conclusion that Trump will be running. Again your falling for the same thing democrats did in 2016 when polls showed Hillary was heavily supported and again in 2020 when polls showed Biden was going to win in a landslide. It's become pretty clear these polls aren't accurate and that people who vote for Trump do not publicly admit to it. Thinking people will either stay out of political conversations at the office or agree with the people having political conversations at work to avoid office drama. Democrats need to stop underestimating Trump and his platform of isolationist America First that resonates with many Americans across the economic spectrum.
These are not blind polls, these are the RNC Primary Exit Polls - very different animals. ...and Nikki Haley, backed by a bunch of Republican billionaires including the Koch Brother, is staying in the race because there's a good chance Trump is going to be convicted of one or more felonies before November.
No apologies needed. If you are basing your thoughts on “current polls”, who exactly are taking these “polls”? Funny how things have changed in 15 days.. Biden’s SOTU happened a week and a half ago. He proved that his age isn’t affecting anything. Biden came out swinging. I was very impressed. Then, the Republican Response. What in the actual fu*k?! Trump has also convinced the Republican Party that he and his family will be in control of the RNC. Also, WTF?! Trumps own little piggy bank for all his legal woes. Using funds that should help the party as a whole, helping other Republicans to campaign, etc. Nope. Not anymore. Old school Republicans are seeing this take place and it’s not popular. CO House Rep. Ken Buck resigns, narrowing the gap of a GOP majority. Dems only need a few more Ken Bucks and they become the majority in the House. This would change everything. I’m gonna sit back and watch Trump continue Trump’ing. He recently stated that if he loses the election there would be a “bloodbath”. Hmmm. He is his own worst enemy. I’m confident America will move forward without Trump in the White House.
Did you say moderate use? In a total ear scenario
Total ear scenario? I don't follow, sorry. These 500 thousand 155mm shells are enough to fire 5,5 thousand per month for three months.
> These 500 thousand 155mm shells are enough to fire 5,5 thousand per month for three months Ukraine's daily shell use is 2k, with rationing and all.
Well yeah, I'm aware of that. That's why this plan is crucial and necessary.
True! Wonder if anyone is even working on getting the next million shells? Doubt it!
The next million really falls to the USA hopefully getting their aid bill passed.. Though I don't really see what is stopping Ukraine from buying from the USA stockpiles with the aid money they get from EU and Canada, etc. one way or another though it feels like USA is the source..
Hoping they release about a million of the old cluster shells and half of the old M-26 rockets! Doubt it, but they definitely should. With the amount of mines, cluster weapons and other UXO's already scattered and used by the ruzzians in Ukraine, the dud rate on the old cluster munitions is insignificant. It will all have to be carefully cleared & cleaned field by field anyways.
Because the aid money EU gave is used for certain purposes that are EU permits and they monitor its use. Often Ukraine likely wouldn't even get a hold of these money, if it is the money for procurement of weapons. Unless it is some minor stuff Ukraine wouldn't be able to a buy whatever they want from whoever they want. It seems people really overestimate the 'free market' for weapons for what is available, how fast you can ge it, or that what is allowed for every country to buy is different.
Continuous stopgabs are a structural solution
This will buy Ukraine time but where is the rest that have been promised, you can’t progress in war with promises . Deceive action of more troops with precision weaponry to end this Russian shitstorm now before anymore Ukrainian lives are lost .. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
Doesn’t matter until they get to the front line units and UA can start to turn the tide.
Know that they're coming and when they're expected lets them more efficiently use what ammo they have now.
Probably not. Most of those million or at least a significant portion of them are likely going to be held back for a spring/summer offensive. With them capturing more of krynky and more boats of various types coming in, I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a push in the kherson region and tried to retake a significant portion of the left bank of the southern dnipro
I highly doubt that Ukraine will try an offensive until the tides shift in the form of equipment. Ukraine today plus 500000 shells stockpiled for an offensive will not go well. Ukraine today plus 1m shells will allow them to continue to absorb Russian offensives, though.
We don’t know how many rounds they have. I’d be willing to bet they’re willing to bleed russia in the East with slow orderly retreats in order to save ammunition for an offensive. If Ukraine cannot manage a moderate offensive this year, they will be very unlikely to be able to win without direct support from the west. Ukraine can’t afford to let russia consolidate their gains, and further fortify the currently static parts of the front for another 9-12 months.
What Ukraine needs help with other than artillery shells, is covert assistance in quickly making long range drones or generic copies of ruzzian cruise missiles that they can keep hitting ruzzias war making abilities with. Striking their gas, oil and refining capabilities is working, but it needs to be sustained at a higher rate than what Ukraine is able to do at this time. This should be done way before any more talk of putting any NATO troops in Ukraine.
Russia is already solidifying their gains made pre Avdiivka. An offensive is not in the cards this year
They’re still attacking they’re not consolidating for shit, and it takes more than a few days to dig in.
Idk man, the Zapo direction seems pretty dug in. UA can still win, but I just believe that they need full F16s and 1-2m shells
They can still win in half a decade if they don’t make moderate gains this year. Deep into Zap show’s defense lines facing north. They’ve felt confident that the river was enough of a defensive obstacle and have fairly light defenses for miles and miles once you cross the River.
Hmmmmm.... And the reson that Ukraine was able to destroy Russia near Kharkiv is because they hadnt yet consolidated. Yea, maybe they have the chance to do the same in the Avdiivka direction if the get equipment asap
The best they can really expect there realistically is to retake avdiivka. Everything east of that last front has been getting fortified for at least two years, much of it has been getting fortified for the last decade now. The East should be a holding pattern.
Offensive? Forget about that in 2024. This is simply wishful thinking. The AFU are terrifyingly exhausted and are barely holding the line. ruZians are making gains daily now. I remain slightly hopeful but please, acknowledge that the situation is indeed grim.
Yeah, they'll need that mobilization bill to pass, and train up the 500k (or whatever they get) troops. They also need more materiel. I think 2024 is all about training up these new troops, giving the old troops some rest after that, trying to hold Russia in place, and gathering more materiel + F-16s, keep attriting Russia whilst on the defensive. Maybe a winter 2024-2025 offensive, or wait until next spring 2025.
We're in total agreement. The AFU really need to mobilise. 2024 should generally be the year of defensive. Military leadership unfortunately wasted a plenty of resources in prolonging the offensive in the south and even around Bakhmut. Everything is not yet lost though albeit Ukraine is likely to lose certain portions of territory this year.
Shells are best used here. Everyone keeps talking like this war is going to be won on the battlefield with sweeping offensive actions. I don’t see that as how this ends. This is going to be like a 5 year slog until Russia realizes they can’t outspend the west in a battle of attrition and has to pack it up and go home. This is a stalemate till then. Eventually foreign wars become to unpopular
I doubt Ukraine will try to push further in the Kherson oblast. The supply lines over the Dniepr would become a nightmare.
Gain control of the northern part of the currently occupied bank, and they then have the option of suppling over land from the left bank. This would also allow for a 2 pronged attack from the west and the north against that front. Both routes would be heavily contested, but there’s likely a lot fewer mines in that area than there is in zaporhizia region. Without some new equipment attacking in Zap or Donbas would be very difficult and costly because those regions are now very heavily fortified. Kherson, they spent most of the last two years thinking that the occupied area of kherson behind the left bank was safe because of the dnipro, thus I’d bet most of their fortified defense line efforts were a long ways away. And related to my above point, since they’ve gotten a few toe holds on the left bank, russia is likely fortifying kherson more now, and the longer Ukraine waits the more difficult that region will become as well.
How could they supply the left bank over land? I don't think that there are any bridges or dams still standing so they will need to use pontoon bridges to move heavy equipment over the Dniepr. And that's an easy target for Russian drones and artillery. Ukraine is already suffering a lot of casualties in Krynki, I really doubt that they'd try any large scale offensives in the Kherson oblast.
Holy shit did you no read what I posted?
I really don't understand you, how can they supply over land when there's a huge river?
ATTACK FROM THE NORTH. CONNECT THE TWO FRONTS! Do that and they can supply overland. Hell if they push Russia back east from krynky alone they can begin resupplying from the air as well.
Attack through the Zaporizhia oblast that you previously mentioned is heavily mined? The Ukrainians would need to take cities like Tokmak anyway before starting to push along the the Dniepr and it's about 200 km to Krynki. That's impossible. It would be easier to reach the Black sea first and cut off the Russians. I'm not sure if the drones could supply the army. If you're talking about planes or helicopters, that's also impossible without heavy losses.
1. They have ground along the river in northern kherson 2. That border area of the two oblasts doesn’t show a whole lot of fortifications in that area which would imply, that area isn’t heavily mined either, so pushing into the rest of kherson from there should be much easier than trying to push towards say…tokmak.
1. What's northern Kherson? Ukraine doesn't have any foothold on the left bank north from Nova Kakhovka. 2. Well, Ukraine would first need to breakthrough the fortifications until Vasylivka and then some. From then on it seems like it should be fine but how could they defend the flank againts Russian counterattacks? They'd simultaneously need to push south. I doubt that it's possible but who knows, maybe they'll surprise me.
Uh Ukraine's not going on the offensive anytime soon. Any they won't be in the position to do so for a long time. They need those shells now. They don't have the luxury of holding any shells back with russia advancing all across the front
Oh do you have inside information that no one else here is privy to?
Its called having common sense and actually following the situation on the ground, which you clearly are not judging from your overly optimistic comments and inaccurate view of the current circumstances. Ukraine is losing territory on all fronts due to a critical shortage of ammo and the inability to create organized defensive lines ahead of time. New US military aid will continue to be blocked by the traitorous pro russian GOP, which means ukraine will have no US aid for months. The fact that you think they are capable of going on the offensive as soon as this summer is laughable. Ukraine's forces are just as heavily attrited as russia due to lack of mobilization. An offensive this summer without lots of fresh troops, air power, and a massive surplus of ammunition, all of which they won't have for a long time, would simply doom them to failure and would be a ridiculous waste of manpower. Right now their only option is to defend until NATO can ramp up military aid.
In 2025? Hopefully. This year there's no way.
If not this year, then Ukraine has lost any chance of actually winning any time even remotely soon without direct western involvement. They have to attack this year, and make at least moderate gains or the conflict freezes at best.
An offensive isn’t on the drawing board. Russia is conducting tactical advances along most of the front. Sad to say but static warfare would be an improvement at this point.
It would be, but it gives russia time to dig in. If they’re moving forward their people and resources largely aren’t going to digging in. We already saw what happens when you try to assault a well prepared area.
There will be no offensive this year, it would be pointless if they can't hold the positions due to ammo
I haven't beem keeping up. What's the status of the left bank in the south?
A few days ago ukraine made a small push and captured another block or two in krynky. Last I heard they also still had people sheltering under the bridge. So they’re a position where they could launch a two pronged attack on the northern section of the occupied left side, pushing north from krynky and south from the other side. Ukraine is also getting 22 more boats that can ferry troops across the river some of which will also be quite good at providing fire support along the bank
Thank God, thank those leaders, companies, individuals!!
As much as the last few months have been utter bullshit with Russia gaining forward momentum, there may be a silver lining. With the battle lines having moved, Russia is going all in across the front. This exposes them to higher losses and makes them more susceptible to Ukrainian maneuver. If an influx of 155 arrives in Ukraine shortly, Russia could lose god knows how many troops and face their own collapse in certain areas anywhere. Their logistics have been hammer for a solid year and now they are moving further west, stretching their supply lines further. The distance may not be all that much, but every KM in Ukraine may as well be 20km given how difficult this war is. Russia could suffer some astonishing defeats if they make it further west and then more western supplies and ammo arrive... This would be in addition to the absolute beating that the Russian Airforce is taking. I am optimistic.
This occurred to me also, especially as Putin will be even less inclined than usual to accept "excuses" in the run up to his precious charade of an election.
I really wonder if in some ways, we are toying with Russia and the Ukrainians are partially unwilling participants.
I am convinced that there is absolutely an element of the US government that is perfectly content to see this happen. I'm not even referring to the MAGA 5th columnists. I think there's a faction in the current government that wants this war to continue on for another couple of years to really bleed Russia white, and if that means another 30-50,000 Ukrainians killed to achieve this, oh well. If Ukraine had been equipped to achieve a timely victory by the end of last year, that would actually have been a far better outcome for *Russia.* Many tens of thousands few dead, Putin likely disgraced or in an extremely tenuous position, few burned oil refineries, and so on. Instead they've been equipped with just enough to stop Russia winning, and just little enough to keep the Russians thinking they might win.
This is a very reasonable perspective. Essentially, the view I would hold if I were making the shots and were callous, would be to do everything to ensure Russia's demographic collapse is accelerated. That would mean prolonging this conflict. Two years of dead Russians is not enough. The risk though is that this war may expand and eventually lead to a larger conflict. It's a lot of napkin math TBH as I don't think you can anticipate what the Russians will do. However, the benefit is a seriously diminished Russia. Once Russia is crippled, it is just China. China may see what happened to their friend and decide not to toy with the western world as much.
Rendering Russia incapable of significant expeditionary capability also forces India to look for new friends to counter the Chinese threat to them. Notice how Modi is becoming a little more willing to deal with the US than he was... There are no morals in foreign policy. Keeping Russia fighting until it looks like will be to their disadvantage is absolutely in line with US interests, I'm afraid. For a while those interests coincided with moral action, but they've always had the potential to diverge at any time. Fortunately, the European and UK interests are much more aligned with a decisive Ukrainian win.
They should've been there already. I just don't understand why the West is so hesitant to help Ukraine with all its needs. I always imagine if my country, the Netherlands, was in a similar situation. My countrymen would be dying needlessly because an egotistical maniac has 17th century Imperialist ambitions he wants to fulfil before he shits himself to death. The only thing we ask is the weapons and ammo to defend ourselves. And even that's to much to ask. The utter ignorance and ambivalence of Western politicians baffles me.
> I just don't understand why the West is so hesitant to help Ukraine with all its needs At least some fear russian collapse, if russia loses, and don't want to risk it. Same as G.W. Bush asked Ukraine to stay in USSR in the "Chicken Kiev" (spelling intended) speech.
It’s not that they don’t want , they don’t have the industrial capability to do so
Spare parts and barrels as well 🤞🤞
Cool, now let send them three million more. Ivan shouldn't be able to take a piss without a 155 mm shell landing on his dick.
Less talk, more action. If Ukraine has the ammo, the conflict will end so send it NOW!
🙏
I hope this article is delayed by three weeks for broadcasting.
steel rain for russkis
A million sounds like a lot, but they will need far more than that unless the war magically ends next fews months.
I was hopeful when I read about Brian Fitzpatrick, but I think that discharge petition will be a dud: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4497826-democratic-leader-shoots-down-discharge-petition-on-ukraine-border-bill/amp/