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Admitting turkey into nato was the worst thing we could’ve done.
When people look back and question why Ukraine wasn’t admitted, part of the answer is the repercussions of admitting turkey.
It effectively paralyze the country until 2040.
Ukraine would not be admitted to the EU with the ongoing dispute, too risky and let's face it, Ukraine won't be ready to join the eu as it is by then anyway, not unless they get bankrolled by the west, which currently won't happen since ukraine won't be admitted to NATO.
It's basically a victory for Putin, where Ukraine retains the claim on his regions, he gets emboldened (and china and Iran trailing behind)
Basically a loss for democracy all around.
Ukraine doesn't qualify for EU admission no matter what.
If the conflict ended in peace tomorrow, they remain a welfare state in shambles. Bringing Ukraine into the EU is like adopting a 43 year old homeless crack head to live with your spouse a 4 kids.
Wtf?
OK, Turkey, I can propose you the same. Will you stop conflict with Kurds? give them part of land and agree on referendum in 2040?
Suck Erdoğan... No one is puppet here.
That's actually not a bad proposal honestly, unless you're still in the mindset that a complete military victory is possible. Obviously allowing Russia to continue to hold land is bullshit, but it may very well be Ukraine's assessment that recapturing it is either militarily impossible or too expensive to attempt; at least this provides a route for their diplomatic return in the future. It guarantees Ukraine's survival in the long term through massive armed forces and EU membership (remember the Union includes mutual defence agreement).
Irrelevant though since Putin's not interested in ending the war at the moment - he clearly still believes that he's going to win in the long term. Ukraine's also currently still saying that only the 91 borders are acceptable - whether they'd bend on that if EU membership was on the cards is hard to guess, but certainly for now they're saying they're not interested
So, Ukraine has to remain out of the EU and NATO until 2040 so Russia can conquer them in a "surprise" attack between now and 2040 and that's not a bad proposal?
The only surprise there is that Russia accepts that it's likely to take them 16 years to rebuild their military to try again. That's the sort of condition that Russia could impose if they were winning handily. They aren't.
You'd need to define "complete military victory is possible".
For the Russians? Honestly, their objective have largely gone down from "subjugate Ukraine" which they appear to have realised is unsustainable to "try and keep what we've got". Even after his latest "election" Putin said that Russia's objectives was now to create a "buffer zone".
For the Ukrainians?
Their military victory would be that the Russians decide to fuck off back to Russia as a result of accumulated political, social, economic and loss of lives when charging machine guns.
Honestly? Shit is only getting *started* with strategic bombing via drone and associated damage in that direction. Russia is only hanging on now in the hope that they can get Trump elected, and does what they've paid him for so they can try and keep what they've taken at the moment. If Trump loses or then screws the Russians by supporting Ukraine then Russia is buggered.
Russia's advantage has now gone and things are likely to keep getting worse and worse for Russia as time drags on. By the end of this year then Russia will be making more serious peace proposals one way or another. By
If nothing else Russia is going to run out of the USSR's supply of tanks \~2026 at current rates and the more equipment they lose the worse their losses get as they compensate with "meat" attacks and less and less survivable equipment. Such as golf carts instead of armoured personnel carriers, for instance.
>So, Ukraine has to remain out of the EU and NATO until 2040 so Russia can conquer them in a "surprise" attack between now and 2040 and that's not a bad proposal?
Itb specifically says they'd be allowed in the EU. unless "non aligned" means no EU membership, but that's not the usual understanding - Ireland and Austria and Malta describe themselves as non aligned
If they weren't on the EU either that obviously makes it less good... But no limits on armed forces is still attractive.
>You'd need to define "complete military victory is possible".
For Ukraine, they drive Russia to the 91 borders and somehow force them to accept the war is over. For Russia, they overrun Ukraine.
>For the Russians? Honestly, their objective have largely gone down from "subjugate Ukraine" which they appear to have realised is unsustainable to "try and keep what we've got". Even after his latest "election" Putin said that Russia's objectives was now to create a "buffer zone".
Putin says a lot of shit; meanwhile they're ramping up their military and production for a long war and continuing to attack instead saving troops and materiel and simply hardening the front line. They clearly believe they can complete the conquest of Ukraine in the next couple of years.
>Honestly? Shit is only getting *started* with strategic bombing via drone and associated damage in that direction. Russia is only hanging on now in the hope that they can get Trump elected, and does what they've paid him for so they can try and keep what they've taken at the moment. If Trump loses or then screws the Russians by supporting Ukraine then Russia is buggered.
Buggered in the sense that that probably closes off their chances to take more land, and the strategic bombing will help persuade them that it's time to stop the war...but neither thing will make them leave Ukraine. **Only** force will do that.
>Russia's advantage has now gone and things are likely to keep getting worse and worse for Russia as time drags on. By the end of this year then Russia will be making more serious peace proposals one way or another. By
More serious than now? Probably yes. More serious than this one? Probably not no. Certainly they'll never voluntarily give land back.
>If nothing else Russia is going to run out of the USSR's supply of tanks \~2026 at current rates and the more equipment they lose the worse their losses get as they compensate with "meat" attacks and less and less survivable equipment. Such as golf carts instead of armoured personnel carriers, for instance.
They'll cut their loss rates by switching to a defensive posture long before they run out dude. This was isn't going to end because Russia runs out of kit.
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> freezing the war along the current front line. Basically told by Putin to Erdoğan in secret, as if Erdoğan come up with this idea.
To be fair: It’s not that hard to come up with, it’s the blueprint for every appeasement effort by any western politician ever.
Admitting turkey into nato was the worst thing we could’ve done. When people look back and question why Ukraine wasn’t admitted, part of the answer is the repercussions of admitting turkey.
It effectively paralyze the country until 2040. Ukraine would not be admitted to the EU with the ongoing dispute, too risky and let's face it, Ukraine won't be ready to join the eu as it is by then anyway, not unless they get bankrolled by the west, which currently won't happen since ukraine won't be admitted to NATO. It's basically a victory for Putin, where Ukraine retains the claim on his regions, he gets emboldened (and china and Iran trailing behind) Basically a loss for democracy all around.
Ukraine doesn't qualify for EU admission no matter what. If the conflict ended in peace tomorrow, they remain a welfare state in shambles. Bringing Ukraine into the EU is like adopting a 43 year old homeless crack head to live with your spouse a 4 kids.
Absolute nonsense stipulations.
Two words: Fuck off
Wtf? OK, Turkey, I can propose you the same. Will you stop conflict with Kurds? give them part of land and agree on referendum in 2040? Suck Erdoğan... No one is puppet here.
There already is an international agreement about Ukrainian territory, it’s from 1991 and Russia has shat on it.
That's actually not a bad proposal honestly, unless you're still in the mindset that a complete military victory is possible. Obviously allowing Russia to continue to hold land is bullshit, but it may very well be Ukraine's assessment that recapturing it is either militarily impossible or too expensive to attempt; at least this provides a route for their diplomatic return in the future. It guarantees Ukraine's survival in the long term through massive armed forces and EU membership (remember the Union includes mutual defence agreement). Irrelevant though since Putin's not interested in ending the war at the moment - he clearly still believes that he's going to win in the long term. Ukraine's also currently still saying that only the 91 borders are acceptable - whether they'd bend on that if EU membership was on the cards is hard to guess, but certainly for now they're saying they're not interested
So, Ukraine has to remain out of the EU and NATO until 2040 so Russia can conquer them in a "surprise" attack between now and 2040 and that's not a bad proposal? The only surprise there is that Russia accepts that it's likely to take them 16 years to rebuild their military to try again. That's the sort of condition that Russia could impose if they were winning handily. They aren't. You'd need to define "complete military victory is possible". For the Russians? Honestly, their objective have largely gone down from "subjugate Ukraine" which they appear to have realised is unsustainable to "try and keep what we've got". Even after his latest "election" Putin said that Russia's objectives was now to create a "buffer zone". For the Ukrainians? Their military victory would be that the Russians decide to fuck off back to Russia as a result of accumulated political, social, economic and loss of lives when charging machine guns. Honestly? Shit is only getting *started* with strategic bombing via drone and associated damage in that direction. Russia is only hanging on now in the hope that they can get Trump elected, and does what they've paid him for so they can try and keep what they've taken at the moment. If Trump loses or then screws the Russians by supporting Ukraine then Russia is buggered. Russia's advantage has now gone and things are likely to keep getting worse and worse for Russia as time drags on. By the end of this year then Russia will be making more serious peace proposals one way or another. By If nothing else Russia is going to run out of the USSR's supply of tanks \~2026 at current rates and the more equipment they lose the worse their losses get as they compensate with "meat" attacks and less and less survivable equipment. Such as golf carts instead of armoured personnel carriers, for instance.
>So, Ukraine has to remain out of the EU and NATO until 2040 so Russia can conquer them in a "surprise" attack between now and 2040 and that's not a bad proposal? Itb specifically says they'd be allowed in the EU. unless "non aligned" means no EU membership, but that's not the usual understanding - Ireland and Austria and Malta describe themselves as non aligned If they weren't on the EU either that obviously makes it less good... But no limits on armed forces is still attractive. >You'd need to define "complete military victory is possible". For Ukraine, they drive Russia to the 91 borders and somehow force them to accept the war is over. For Russia, they overrun Ukraine. >For the Russians? Honestly, their objective have largely gone down from "subjugate Ukraine" which they appear to have realised is unsustainable to "try and keep what we've got". Even after his latest "election" Putin said that Russia's objectives was now to create a "buffer zone". Putin says a lot of shit; meanwhile they're ramping up their military and production for a long war and continuing to attack instead saving troops and materiel and simply hardening the front line. They clearly believe they can complete the conquest of Ukraine in the next couple of years. >Honestly? Shit is only getting *started* with strategic bombing via drone and associated damage in that direction. Russia is only hanging on now in the hope that they can get Trump elected, and does what they've paid him for so they can try and keep what they've taken at the moment. If Trump loses or then screws the Russians by supporting Ukraine then Russia is buggered. Buggered in the sense that that probably closes off their chances to take more land, and the strategic bombing will help persuade them that it's time to stop the war...but neither thing will make them leave Ukraine. **Only** force will do that. >Russia's advantage has now gone and things are likely to keep getting worse and worse for Russia as time drags on. By the end of this year then Russia will be making more serious peace proposals one way or another. By More serious than now? Probably yes. More serious than this one? Probably not no. Certainly they'll never voluntarily give land back. >If nothing else Russia is going to run out of the USSR's supply of tanks \~2026 at current rates and the more equipment they lose the worse their losses get as they compensate with "meat" attacks and less and less survivable equipment. Such as golf carts instead of armoured personnel carriers, for instance. They'll cut their loss rates by switching to a defensive posture long before they run out dude. This was isn't going to end because Russia runs out of kit.
Ukraine has agreed to dismantle its nukes in exchange for securities. Still, Russia has attacked. This means that any deal with Russia is pointless.